{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "KO",
  "name": "The Coca-Cola Company",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KO/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KO.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Coca-Cola's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: at about 28 times forward earnings and above the average analyst target, the raised 2026 outlook looks priced in. The fourth-quarter report with first 2027 guidance, expected around 10 February 2027, settles the case.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $102.00, well over the $98.38 52-week intraday high of 2026-11-12, which would show the shares leading; or 2027 guidance in the fourth-quarter report for currency-neutral comparable EPS growth of at least 9%.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-12-02",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Coca-Cola’s Price Targets Now Run From $89 to $106. Do the Estimates Back the Top End?",
      "url": "https://www.tikr.com/blog/coca-colas-price-targets-now-run-from-89-to-106-do-the-estimates-back-the-top-end",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "The Coca-Cola Company Announces Participation in Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference",
      "url": "https://investors.coca-colacompany.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1177/the-coca-cola-company-announces-participation-in-morgan-stanley-global-consumer-retail-conference",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) Sets New 1-Year High",
      "url": "https://www.thestockobserver.com/2026/11/11/coca-cola-nyseko-sets-new-1-year-high-still-a-buy.html",
      "date": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "title": "Coca-Cola Stock Is Up 36% This Year. Bernstein’s New $95 Target Says the Quarter Is Priced In",
      "url": "https://www.tikr.com/blog/coca-cola-stock-is-up-36-this-year-bernsteins-new-95-target-says-the-quarter-is-priced-in",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "The Coca-Cola Company (KO) Stock Price History 1968-2026",
      "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ko/history/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Coca-Cola's $20B tax fight reaches federal appeals court this week",
      "url": "https://www.investmentnews.com/regulation-legal-compliance/coca-colas-20bn-tax-fight-reaches-federal-appeals-court-this-week/267091",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 net revenues rose 7% to $13.38 billion; organic revenues rose 7% on 7% concentrate sales growth and 1% price/mix; global unit case volume grew 5%, North America flat.",
      "source": "Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K), 2026-10-27",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 guidance raised: organic revenue growth at least 5%, comparable EPS growth at least 11% (from 9–10%), currency-neutral comparable EPS growth at least 9% (from 7–8%).",
      "source": "Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K), 2026-10-27",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The company flagged about an 8% acquisition-and-divestiture headwind to 2027 comparable net revenue and about 2% to comparable EPS, plus a slight currency headwind.",
      "source": "Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K), 2026-10-27",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Consensus normalized EPS stood at $3.34 for 2026, $3.53 for 2027 (from $3.52) and $3.79 for 2028 (from $3.78); forward price/earnings about 28 times against a 23.4-times five-year average.",
      "source": "TIKR, updated 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "MarketBeat's consensus target was $97.26 with 1 Strong Buy, 20 Buy and 3 Hold ratings; trailing price/earnings ratio 28.72; beta 0.28.",
      "source": "MarketBeat-syndicated report, The Stock Observer, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "EVP Nancy Quan exercised options on 20,585 shares at $50.44 and sold 20,585 shares at $95.62 on 2026-11-05.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "EVP Beatriz Perez exercised options on 67,548 shares and sold 67,548 shares at an average of $94.91 on 2026-11-02.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Coca-Cola announced that President and CFO John Murphy will present at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on 2026-12-02 at 11 a.m. ET.",
      "source": "Coca-Cola press release, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Defensive",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-10-02",
      "figures": {
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          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 13380,
              "yoy_pct": 7.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-07-03",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 13380,
              "yoy_pct": 6.7
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            {
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              "value_musd": 12472,
              "yoy_pct": 12.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-20",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 11822,
              "yoy_pct": 2.4
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              "value_musd": 12455,
              "yoy_pct": 5.1
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 12535,
              "yoy_pct": 1.4
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 63.2
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              "pct": 61.5
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              "filed": "2025-07-24",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 62.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-10-02",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 33.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-07-03",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 34.9
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            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 35
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-02-20",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 15.6
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              "filed": "2025-10-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 32
            },
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              "end": "2025-06-27",
              "filed": "2025-07-24",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 34.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-10-02",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 4833
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-10-02",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-10-02",
          "value_musd": 4009,
          "four_quarters_musd": 14629
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-10-02",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 16227
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-10-02",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 1945
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-10-02",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
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          "value_musd": 14282
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-10-02",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "base_end": "2025-09-26",
          "pct": 0
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
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          "value_musd": 13685
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        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
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          "value_musd": 41546,
          "composition": "long-term debt and finance leases"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
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          "value_musd": -27861
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        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-10-02",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 3571
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        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-10-02",
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          "value_musd": 4410
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        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-10-02",
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          "value_musd": 37372
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          "value_musd": 426963.8
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        "enterprise_value": {
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          "value_musd": 454824.8
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        "ev_sales": {
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          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 8.9
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        "ev_ebit": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 29.7
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        "pe": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 29.2
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        "pb": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 11.4
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          "pct": 3.3
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    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 1.15,
      "days_to_cover": 3,
      "change_pct": -6.7
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    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
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          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nCoca-Cola's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. At about 28 times forward earnings and above the average analyst target, the raised 2026 outlook already looks priced in. President and Chief Financial Officer John Murphy speaks at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on 2026-12-02; the fourth-quarter report with first 2027 guidance, expected around 2027-02-10, settles the case.\n\nThe rating is Low because the rally since the 2026-10-27 report has come from a higher multiple while earnings forecasts barely moved. After the quarter, consensus normalized earnings per share (EPS) rose by about a penny, to $3.53 for 2027 and $3.79 for 2028, against $3.34 for 2026 (TIKR, updated 2026-11-04). The shares closed at $97.44 on 2026-11-12, above MarketBeat's $97.26 consensus target of 2026-11-11.\n\nWhat the price reflects: TIKR put the forward price/earnings ratio at about 28 times on 2026-11-04, just under the five-year high of 28.1 times set on 2026-10-22 and against a five-year average of 23.4 times. At that level the market already assumes the 2026 guidance is met and that the multiple holds through the divestiture drag of 2027.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Guidance rose a third time in 2026.** On 2026-10-27 the company lifted 2026 comparable EPS growth to at least 11% from 9–10%, currency-neutral comparable EPS growth to at least 9% from 7–8%, and organic revenue growth to at least 5% (company 8-K).\n- **Global volume growth held at 5%.** Unit case volume rose 5% in the third quarter, matching the second, with Asia Pacific and Latin America each up 6% (company 8-K, 2026-10-27).\n- **Margins widened.** Comparable operating margin rose to 32.9% in the third quarter from 31.9% a year earlier (company 8-K, 2026-10-27).\n- **Most brokers raised targets after the report.** On 2026-10-28 DBS went to $106 from $98, TD Cowen to $104 from $100, Morgan Stanley to $103 from $100, Citigroup to $103 from $102, Wells Fargo to $100 from $90 and JPMorgan to $98 from $95 (TIKR and MarketBeat). MarketBeat counted 1 Strong Buy, 20 Buy and 3 Hold ratings on 2026-11-11.\n- **The bottler sell-down continues.** Hindustan Coca-Cola Holdings, parent of the Indian bottling business, filed draft papers for an initial public offering in India (fiscal.ai, 2026-11-08). The US KFC account moves from Pepsi to Coca-Cola from January 2027 (Fox Business, 2026-10-16).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The multiple sits near a five-year high.** TIKR put the forward price/earnings ratio at about 28 times on 2026-11-04 against a 23.4-times five-year average; Bernstein cited a 23-times 10-year average on 2026-11-03. MarketBeat listed a trailing ratio of 28.72 on 2026-11-11.\n- **The price has passed the average target.** The $97.44 close of 2026-11-12 is above MarketBeat's $97.26 consensus and Bernstein's $95 target, set with a Market Perform rating on 2026-11-03 (TIKR). Freedom Broker's target is $89 with a Hold rating (2026-10-28).\n- **North American volume stalled.** Unit case volume there was flat in the third quarter after 3% growth in the second (company 8-K, 2026-10-27). On 2026-11-09 the administration proposed narrowing food-assistance eligibility, which officials estimate could block 6.3 million people (Benzinga).\n- **Part of the revenue beat was timing.** Concentrate sales rose 7%, two points ahead of unit case volume because of shipment timing, and management expects slight destocking in the fourth quarter (company 8-K and Benzinga, 2026-10-27).\n- **2027 reported growth shrinks.** The company flagged about an 8% acquisition-and-divestiture headwind to 2027 comparable net revenue and about 2% to comparable EPS, plus a slight currency headwind (company 8-K, 2026-10-27).\n- **Executives sold into the high.** Executive vice president Nancy Quan exercised options on 20,585 shares and sold them at $95.62 on 2026-11-05; executive vice president Beatriz Perez did the same with 67,548 shares at an average of $94.91 on 2026-11-02 (SEC Form 4 filings). Quan and Bruno Pietracci also sold after option exercises at $90.39 and $90.93 on 2026-08-19 and 2026-08-20.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $97.44 on 2026-11-12, 1.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $98.38 set that same session. The highest close of the past 52 weeks was $97.57 on 2026-11-11. The 52-week closing low was $67.54 on 2026-01-07.\n\nThe shares fell to a $91.18 close on report day, 2026-10-27, and recovered that drop by 2026-11-02 (StockAnalysis daily price history). Closes then climbed from $95.73 on 2026-11-05 to $97.57 on 2026-11-11. On adjusted daily closes the 50-day moving average was $90.54 and the 200-day moving average $82.53 on 2026-11-12, and the 3-month change was 11.8%.\n\nThe case turns on the $98.38 high. Closes held well above it would mean buyers paying more than 28 times forward earnings for a business with consensus EPS of $3.53 for 2027 against $3.34 for 2026 (TIKR, 2026-11-04). A fall back toward the 50-day average would erase the gains made since the report.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-02:** President and CFO John Murphy presents at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference, 11 a.m. ET. The first management update since the 2026-10-27 report: shows whether the at-least-11% comparable EPS growth guide for 2026 holds, whether fourth-quarter destocking is on plan, and any early read on 2027.\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** Expected closing of the sale of African bottling operations, subject to regulatory approval. Completes another step toward a concentrate-focused, higher-margin business and fixes the size of the 2027 divestiture drag; a regulatory delay would push that out.\n- **~2027-01-04 (est.):** KFC begins switching US restaurants from Pepsi to Coca-Cola. First period in which the KFC account adds US fountain volume, against a third quarter in which North American volume was flat.\n- **~2027-02-10 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report and first full-year 2027 guidance. Shows whether 2026 closes at or above the at-least-11% comparable EPS growth guide, whether North American volume grows again, and how large the 2027 divestiture and currency headwinds are.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $102.00, well over the $98.38 52-week intraday high of 2026-11-12, which would show the shares leading; or 2027 guidance in the fourth-quarter report for currency-neutral comparable EPS growth of at least 9%.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe shares move with defensive consumer staples more than with the broad market. MarketBeat listed a beta of 0.28 on 2026-11-11. On 2026-11-09 all 11 sectors rose with growth sectors leading (Benzinga), and on 2026-11-05 Benzinga reported Nvidia's forward price/earnings ratio of 15.2 below those of 22 of 33 consumer staples stocks, a gap that makes staples the more expensive side of any rotation.\n\nPepsiCo is the direct competitor, and the KFC account change sharpens the comparison. Most revenue is earned outside the US, so a firmer dollar weighs on reported earnings; the company already flags a slight currency headwind for 2027.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:51:11+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}