{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "LMT", "name": "Lockheed Martin Corporation", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LMT/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LMT.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": { "code": "a1", "n": 1 }, "current_thesis": "Lockheed Martin's record $292.0 billion backlog and raised 2026 guidance make the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 after their post-midterm rebound. The 11 December 2026 federal funding deadline shows whether Congress extends funding in an orderly way or a shutdown follows.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $545, which would erase the full 2026-10-22 post-earnings gain and sit under the $551.51 pre-report close. A 2026 guidance cut below $80.0 billion in sales or $30.35 in EPS, a charge on the underfunded F-35 Lot 20 contract, or a final defense bill omitting F-35 multiyear authority would also break the case.", "catalyst_date": "2026-12-11", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "defense-aerospace" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "Republicans have a ticking clock. What can they get done on defense?", "url": "https://breakingdefense.com/2026/11/republicans-have-a-ticking-clock-what-can-they-get-done-on-defense/", "date": "2026-11-05" }, { "title": "Midterm Results Trigger a Showdown Over Defense Spending", "url": "https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2026/11/06/midterm-results-trigger-a-showdown-over-defense-spending/", "date": "2026-11-06" }, { "title": "LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP - Form 10-Q - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000936468/000162828026066928/lmt-20260927.htm", "date": "2026-09-27" }, { "title": "Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) Shares Climb 2.5% - Still a Buy?", "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-lockheed-martin-nyse-lmt-shares-climb-25-still-a-buy-2026-11-10/", "date": "2026-11-10" }, { "title": "Why Lockheed Martin Rallied in October", "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/10/why-lockheed-martin-rallied-in-october/", "date": "2026-11-10" }, { "title": "Benzinga", "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/11/62858554/lockheed-martin-rtx-northrop-stocks-fall-after-democratic-midterm-sweep-raises-questions-over-trumps-defense-spending-plan", "date": null }, { "title": "Defence giant Lockheed Martin acquires N.S.-based undersea warfare company", "url": "https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/lockheed-martin-acquires-ultra-marine-9.7404983", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "2026 guidance was raised to sales of $80.0–82.0 billion, diluted EPS of $30.35–30.75 and free cash flow of $7.8–8.0 billion; backlog reached a record $292.0 billion.", "source": "Lockheed Martin Q3 2026 earnings release", "as_of": "2026-10-22" }, { "claim": "Costs on the F-35 Lot 20 advance acquisition contract began exceeding authorization and funding in the third quarter; the company warned of negative effects without further US government action.", "source": "Lockheed Martin Q3 2026 Form 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-09-27" }, { "claim": "TD Cowen's Roman Schweizer expects the fiscal 2027 defense authorization and appropriations bills to be delayed until early 2027; Capital Alpha Partners' Byron Callan put shutdown odds after 2026-12-11 at 50%.", "source": "Breaking Defense, 2026-11-05", "as_of": "2026-11-05" }, { "claim": "Forecast International called the $350 billion reconciliation part of the $1.5 trillion FY27 request effectively dead, removing about $113 billion of industrial-base funding.", "source": "Forecast International Defense & Security Monitor, 2026-11-06", "as_of": "2026-11-06" }, { "claim": "Lockheed Martin delivered its 100,000th GMLRS rocket and reached a production rate of nearly 14,000 rockets a year.", "source": "Company news, 2026-11-10", "as_of": "2026-11-10" }, { "claim": "The State Department approved a possible $1.08 billion UH-60M Black Hawk sale to Mexico; South Korea selected Sikorsky's S-92A+ for Presidential Helicopter II.", "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-06", "as_of": "2026-11-06" }, { "claim": "Guggenheim began coverage at Buy with a $735 target on 2026-11-04; MarketBeat's consensus target was $647.00 on 2026-11-10.", "source": "Benzinga 2026-11-04; MarketBeat 2026-11-10", "as_of": "2026-11-10" }, { "claim": "Chief Operating Officer Frank St John sold 3,899 shares in the open market on 2026-10-23.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-27", "as_of": "2026-10-23" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Industrials", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-27", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "restated": null, "value_musd": 20711, "yoy_pct": 11.3 }, { "end": "2026-06-28", "filed": "2026-07-23", "restated": null, "value_musd": 20063, "yoy_pct": 10.5 }, { "end": "2026-03-29", "filed": "2026-04-23", "restated": null, "value_musd": 18021, "yoy_pct": 0.3 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-01-29", "restated": null, "value_musd": 20321, "yoy_pct": 9.1 }, { "end": "2025-09-28", "filed": "2025-10-21", "restated": null, "value_musd": 18609, "yoy_pct": 8.8 }, { "end": "2025-06-29", "filed": "2025-07-22", "restated": null, "value_musd": 18155, "yoy_pct": 0.2 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "restated": null, "pct": 11.8 }, { "end": "2026-06-28", "filed": "2026-07-23", "restated": null, "pct": 12.2 }, { "end": "2026-03-29", "filed": "2026-04-23", "restated": null, "pct": 11.5 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-01-29", "restated": null, "pct": 11.4 }, { "end": "2025-09-28", "filed": "2025-10-21", "restated": null, "pct": 12 }, { "end": "2025-06-29", "filed": "2025-07-22", "restated": null, "pct": 4 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "restated": null, "pct": 11.8 }, { "end": "2026-06-28", "filed": "2026-07-23", "restated": null, "pct": 12.4 }, { "end": "2026-03-29", "filed": "2026-04-23", "restated": null, "pct": 11.4 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-01-29", "restated": null, "pct": 11.5 }, { "end": "2025-09-28", "filed": "2025-10-21", "restated": null, "pct": 12.3 }, { "end": "2025-06-29", "filed": "2025-07-22", "restated": null, "pct": 4.1 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": 2172 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-27", "value_musd": 1845, "four_quarters_musd": 6513 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 10112 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 1731 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 8381 }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "base_end": "2025-09-28", "pct": -0.6 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": 5960 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": 20498, "composition": "non-current long-term debt plus current maturities" }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": -14538 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": 12644, "yoy_pct": 23.2 }, "backlog": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": 292000, "yoy_pct": 63 }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": 3096 }, "inventory": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": 3987 }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-27", "filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": 10063 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-19", "basis_filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": 137688 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-19", "basis_filed": "2026-10-22", "value_musd": 152226 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-19", "basis_filed": "2026-10-22", "multiple": 1.9 }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-19", "basis_filed": "2026-10-22", "multiple": 16.3 }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-19", "basis_filed": "2026-10-22", "multiple": 21.1 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-19", "basis_filed": "2026-10-22", "multiple": 13.7 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-19", "basis_filed": "2026-10-22", "pct": 6.1 } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 1.11, "days_to_cover": 2.5, "change_pct": -6.3 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 0, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 3 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 124284.02, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 22 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nLockheed Martin's record $292.0 billion backlog and raised 2026 guidance make the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The 2026-12-11 federal funding deadline settles the near-term question. An orderly extension keeps contract awards flowing. A shutdown, or a final bill without F-35 multiyear authority, would weaken the case.\n\nThe shares have recovered from the post-midterm selloff. They closed at $604.09 on 2026-11-12, up from $567.08 on 2026-11-06 and above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. No new results, guidance or budget decision came between those dates. The rebound followed company news of contract and production progress. The rating is Medium because the business facts behind it still hold, and the budget question is still open.\n\nOver three months the shares are 0.1% lower, despite the 2026-10-22 guidance raise. The price already reflects a fiscal 2027 defense budget delayed into 2027 and the loss of the extra party-line funding. It does not reflect a shutdown after 2026-12-11 or a charge on the F-35 Lot 20 contract.\n\nWashington analysts expect the budget to come late. On 2026-11-05 Breaking Defense reported that TD Cowen's Roman Schweizer expects the defense authorization and appropriations bills to be delayed until early 2027. Capital Alpha Partners' Byron Callan put the odds of a shutdown after the deadline at 50%. On 2026-11-06 Forecast International wrote that the $350 billion reconciliation package in the White House's $1.5 trillion fiscal 2027 request is effectively dead in the new Congress. It also expects another short-term funding bill that runs into 2027.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Second straight guidance raise.** On 2026-10-22 the company raised 2026 guidance to sales of $80.0–82.0 billion, diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $30.35–30.75 and free cash flow of $7.8–8.0 billion (third-quarter release). Third-quarter EPS was $7.97, against a $7.52 consensus, and revenue rose 11.3% to $20.71 billion (MarketBeat, 2026-11-10).\n- **Record $292 billion backlog.** Backlog reached $292.0 billion at the end of the third quarter, including $52.5 billion tied to the multiyear PAC-3 MSE interceptor award (company release, 2026-10-22).\n- **Missile output is rising.** On 2026-11-10 the company reported delivering its 100,000th GMLRS rocket, at a production rate of nearly 14,000 a year. On 2026-10-30 the State Department approved a possible $2.1 billion sale of 500 PAC-3 MSE missiles to Ukraine.\n- **Foreign helicopter demand.** On 2026-11-06 the State Department approved a possible $1.08 billion sale of UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters to Mexico. The same day, South Korea selected Sikorsky's S-92A+ for its Presidential Helicopter II program (Benzinga).\n- **Analysts held their targets through the vote.** Guggenheim began coverage with a Buy rating and a $735 target on 2026-11-04. Wells Fargo raised its target to $700 from $600 at Equal-Weight on 2026-11-02. MarketBeat's consensus target was $647.00 on 2026-11-10, from 1 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 10 Hold and 1 Sell ratings.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The budget decision moves to 2027.** Breaking Defense reported on 2026-11-05 that analysts expect the defense bills to slip into early 2027. By then Democrats control both chambers of Congress.\n- **Shutdown risk at the deadline.** Capital Alpha Partners' Callan put the chance of a shutdown after 2026-12-11 at 50% (Breaking Defense, 2026-11-05). Forecast International noted on 2026-11-06 that a long-term funding extension is also possible. That would delay new programme starts and production increases.\n- **Party-line funding is fading.** Forecast International estimates that losing the reconciliation package would remove about $113 billion of defense industrial-base funding (2026-11-06). Several F-35 airframes were placed in that package and would need regular budget funding instead. Incoming House Armed Services chair Adam Smith wants to keep defense spending under $1 trillion.\n- **F-35 Lot 20 is underfunded.** The third-quarter Form 10-Q says costs on the Lot 20 advance acquisition contract began exceeding authorization and funding in the quarter. The company warned of negative effects without further government action.\n- **Cash calls are rising.** The company bought Ultra Maritime for $3.45 billion in US dollars (CBC). The 10-Q said the purchase would be funded with cash on hand.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nAdjusted daily closes show the shares at $567.08 on 2026-11-06, $588.19 on 2026-11-09, $603.12 on 2026-11-10, $610.05 on 2026-11-11 and $604.09 on 2026-11-12. MarketBeat reported that the 2.5% gain on 2026-11-10 came on volume about 38% below average.\n\nAs of the 2026-11-12 close, the 50-day moving average is $552.28 and the 200-day is $564.55. The shares sit above both again. The $551.51 close on 2026-10-21, the day before the third-quarter report, is the level that measures the post-earnings gain.\n\nThe last close is 12.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $692.00 set on 2026-03-02. The 52-week closing low is $439.19, from 2025-12-01. The 3-month change is −0.1%.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-01:** Ex-dividend and record date for the raised $3.60 quarterly dividend, payable 2026-12-31. It is the only dated company event before the funding deadline, and it sets who receives the raised dividend.\n- **2026-12-11:** Federal temporary funding expires. A short extension pushes F-35 multiyear authority and Lot 20 funding into 2027; a lapse would bring the shutdown that Capital Alpha Partners puts at 50% odds.\n- **2027-01-03:** New Congress convenes with Democratic majorities in both chambers. Any deferred defense authorization or appropriation, including F-35 multiyear authority and F-35s moved out of the reconciliation request, would be finished under Democratic leaders.\n- **~2027-01-27 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Shows whether the $292.0 billion backlog turns into a 2027 sales outlook above the 2026 range despite budget doubts, and whether Lot 20 produces a charge.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $545, which would erase the full 2026-10-22 post-earnings gain and sit under the $551.51 pre-report close. A 2026 guidance cut below $80.0 billion in sales or $30.35 in EPS, a charge on the underfunded F-35 Lot 20 contract, or a final defense bill omitting F-35 multiyear authority would also break the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Congress fails to extend funding on 2026-12-11 and a shutdown delays new defense contract actions. Confirmed by: A funding lapse after 2026-12-11 lasting into late December, with Pentagon contract announcements slowing.\n- A long-term continuing resolution freezes fiscal 2027 defense spending at fiscal 2026 levels and blocks new starts and production increases. Confirmed by: Congress passing a full-year funding extension instead of a fiscal 2027 defense appropriation.\n- Democratic control of Congress leaves the fiscal 2027 and 2028 defense budgets well short of the White House request. Confirmed by: A fiscal 2027 appropriation near or below $1.15 trillion with no party-line funding, or analyst target cuts citing lower budget assumptions.\n- Congress does not grant F-35 multiyear authority, or does not fund the F-35s placed in the reconciliation request. Confirmed by: A final fiscal 2027 defense authorization bill or appropriation that omits the authority or cuts F-35 quantities.\n- The F-35 Lot 20 funding gap turns into a charge or cash drain. Confirmed by: A programme charge or cash-flow guidance cut tied to Lot 20 in the fourth-quarter report before Congress acts on funding.\n- Company-funded development, F-35 initiatives and the Ultra Maritime purchase weigh on cash. Confirmed by: 2027 free cash flow guidance below the raised 2026 range of $7.8–8.0 billion in the fourth-quarter report.\n- A US–Iran deal removes the geopolitical premium in defense shares. Confirmed by: A signed agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with defense shares falling on the news as they did on 2026-09-22.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe shares trade with the other defense primes on budget news. Benzinga reported that Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX and General Dynamics all fell on 2026-11-04 as the Democratic sweep raised doubts about defense spending. A single funding outcome on 2026-12-11 is likely to move the group together. On days when defense names fall on budget news, the shares can lag the S&P 500.\n\nGeopolitical news also moves the group. The shares fell on 2026-09-22 on news of progress toward a US–Iran deal. Motley Fool reported on 2026-11-10 that the shares rose 25.1% in October on the third-quarter results and new multiyear Pentagon agreements. That move was driven by company news, separate from the wider market.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T22:52:34+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }