{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "MAT",
  "name": "Mattel, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAT/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAT.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "Mattel's 2026 guidance cut on 5 November 2026 leaves an unconfirmed Authentic Brands takeover approach as the main support for the shares, which look more likely to lag the S&P 500; a confirmed offer, a sale process or the February 2027 plan settles it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $17.53, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 on takeover hopes or a recovery. A confirmed offer, an adviser hire for a sale review, or 2026 adjusted EPS guided above the $1.20 top of the range would also show it.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-27",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "MATTEL INC /DE/ - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000063276/000006327626000014/exhibit991.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Mattel (MAT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/06/mattel-mat-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "title": "Mattel Stock Drops on Q3 Results: Hot Wheels Growth Can't Muscle Past Barbie Declines",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/earnings/26/11/62960208/mattel-stock-drops-on-q3-results-hot-wheels-growth-cant-muscle-past-barbie-declines",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Earnings Flash (MAT) Mattel, Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $1.30 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.94",
      "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/earnings-flash-mat-mattel-inc-posts-q3-adjusted-eps-1-30-per-share-vs-factset-est-of-0-94-ce785fddda81f022",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "MATTEL INC /DE/ - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000063276/000119312526428038/d111363d8k.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "By Abigail Summerville",
      "url": "https://kfgo.com/2026/10/01/mattel-attracts-takeover-interest-from-authentic-brands-group-the-wall-street-journal-reports/",
      "date": "2026-10-01"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Mattel cut 2026 guidance to adjusted EPS of $1.05 to $1.20 from $1.27 to $1.39, and constant-currency net sales growth to 1% to 4% from 3% to 6%.",
      "source": "Mattel Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K), 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter net sales were $1,806.7 million, up 4% (3% in constant currency), against a $1.835 billion estimate.",
      "source": "Mattel Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K); Benzinga, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter adjusted EPS was $1.30 vs $0.91 a year earlier and a $0.94 FactSet estimate; adjusted gross margin of 55.0% included $88 million of tariff refunds.",
      "source": "Mattel Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K); MarketScreener, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Barbie gross billings fell 9% to $374.6 million, Fisher-Price fell 14% to $186.2 million, and Hot Wheels rose 7% to $585.5 million in the third quarter.",
      "source": "Mattel Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K), 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CFO Peter Griffith said point-of-sale trends decelerated late in the third quarter and continued into the fourth across major markets, while retailer inventory declined from a year earlier.",
      "source": "Mattel Q3 2026 earnings call, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Citigroup kept a Neutral rating on Mattel and lowered its price target to $15.",
      "source": "Benzinga analyst headline, 2026-11-06",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "EdgePoint Investment Group, about an 18% holder, signed a cooperation agreement that put partner Lee Matheson on Mattel's board, with voting and standstill commitments.",
      "source": "Mattel Form 8-K, 2026-10-21",
      "as_of": "2026-10-21"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The WSJ reported that Authentic Brands Group discussed acquiring Mattel at more than $20 per share, about $6 billion; Mattel closed at $12.66 the prior day and at $15.04 on the report date.",
      "source": "WSJ via Reuters and CNBC, 2026-10-01",
      "as_of": "2026-10-01"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1806.7,
              "yoy_pct": 4.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1125.3,
              "yoy_pct": 10.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 862.2,
              "yoy_pct": 4.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1766.5,
              "yoy_pct": 7.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1736,
              "yoy_pct": -5.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1018.6,
              "yoy_pct": -5.7
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 54.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 48.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 44.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 45.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 50
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 50.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 26.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -11.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 21.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 7.7
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 450.4
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 353.6,
          "four_quarters_musd": 502.6
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 683
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 160.8
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 522.2
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": -9.8
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 541.4
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 2335,
          "composition": "long-term debt plus other short-term borrowings"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": -1793.6
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 106,
          "yoy_pct": 102.4
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 1400.1
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 828
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 2340.6
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 4316.8
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 6110.3
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "multiple": 1.1
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "multiple": 11.6
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "multiple": 8.6
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "multiple": 1.8
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "pct": 12.1
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 9.81,
      "days_to_cover": 2.3,
      "change_pct": -9.1
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 587026.66,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 1009450,
          "sold_usd": 587026.66,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nMattel cut its 2026 forecast at its first report under new management, so an unconfirmed Authentic Brands takeover approach remains the main support for the shares, which look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months. A confirmed offer, an adviser hire or sale process, or the plan management promised for February 2027, settles the case.\n\nMattel lowered 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance to $1.05–$1.20 from $1.27–$1.39, and constant-currency net sales growth to 1%–4% from 3%–6% (8-K, 2026-11-05). Neither the release nor the call announced a review, an adviser or a sale process. Mattel has declined to comment on the reported talks, and no SEC filing confirms an offer.\n\nThe shares have recovered since the cut. They closed at $14.97 on 2026-11-05, the session before the report, and at $16.08 on 2026-11-11, above both the 50-day and 200-day averages. Company news over those sessions covers a management appointment and a toy-awards nomination, with no new detail on the talks. The takeover premium is therefore rebuilding on the same unconfirmed reports that moved the shares on 2026-10-01.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **The door remains formally open.** Chief executive Roger Lynch said on the 2026-11-05 call that the board and management \"are aligned on executing our responsibilities to explore any actionable opportunities.\" The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on 2026-10-01 that Authentic Brands Group discussed a price above $20 a share, about $6 billion.\n- **Shareholders keep pressing the board.** Ariel Investments, with 5.4%, asked on 2026-10-05 for an independent adviser and a sale review. Semafor reported on 2026-10-22 that Southeastern Asset Management was preparing a boardroom fight.\n- **Hot Wheels is still growing.** Third-quarter Hot Wheels gross billings rose 7% to $585.5 million, and the Vehicles category rose 9% to $679.8 million (8-K, 2026-11-05).\n- **Retailers carry less stock.** Chief financial officer Peter Griffith said on the call that retailer inventory declined from a year earlier. Mattel's own inventory was $828.0 million on 2026-09-30, against $826.6 million a year before.\n- **Refunds sit outside the forecast.** The new guidance excludes the $88 million of tariff refunds received in the third quarter and any further refunds in 2026 (8-K, 2026-11-05).\n- **Buybacks continue.** Mattel repurchased $308 million of shares in the first nine months of 2026, with about $1.2 billion left on its authorization (8-K, 2026-11-05).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Demand slowed into the holiday quarter.** Griffith said point-of-sale (POS) growth was positive but below expectations, slowed late in the third quarter, and continued that way into the fourth across major markets (call, 2026-11-05).\n- **The profit beat leaned on refunds.** Adjusted EPS of $1.30 beat the $0.94 FactSet estimate and included the $88 million of refunds. Full-year adjusted gross margin is guided to roughly 48%, against 55.0% in the third quarter.\n- **Sales missed estimates.** Net sales of $1,806.7 million rose 4%, or 3% in constant currency, against a $1.835 billion estimate reported by Benzinga on 2026-11-05.\n- **Core brands are shrinking.** Barbie gross billings fell 9% to $374.6 million, and Fisher-Price fell 14% to $186.2 million (8-K, 2026-11-05).\n- **The new team signals no sale.** Lynch described his plan as a focus on core-business execution: \"it's not a strategy change.\" EdgePoint Investment Group, an 18% holder, took a board seat on 2026-10-21 and accepted voting and standstill commitments (8-K, 2026-10-21).\n- **Analysts are cutting targets.** Citigroup kept its Neutral rating and lowered its price target to $15 on 2026-11-06, below the 2026-11-11 close of $16.08.\n- **Leverage rose from a year earlier.** Debt to trailing adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization reached 2.7 times on 2026-09-30, from 2.5 times. Net debt was $1,793.6 million, from $1,645.7 million (8-K, 2026-11-05).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nCloses show $12.66 on 2026-09-30 (the 52-week closing low and the session before the WSJ report), $15.04 on 2026-10-01, $14.97 on 2026-11-05 and $16.08 on 2026-11-11. The shares closed higher in each session from 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-11: $15.35, $15.59, $16.00, then $16.08.\n\nThe 2026-11-11 close is above the 50-day average of $15.08 and the 200-day average of $15.25. The 3-month price change is 8.1%, measured from the $14.88 close on 2026-08-13. The intraday 52-week high is $22.48 from 2026-02-10, and the last close is 28.5% below it.\n\nThe shares trade well above the $12.66 close that carried no takeover premium. Citigroup's $15 target of 2026-11-06 is the only analyst target dated after the report that is on record here. Chief executive Roger Lynch's 2026-10-12 share grant carried tax withholding at $16.76 (SEC Form 4, filed 2026-10-14); an executive's open-market sale of 39,083 shares at $15.02 on 2026-08-31 predates the takeover reports.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-27:** Black Friday opens the peak toy-selling weeks of the fourth quarter. Holiday sell-through shows whether the softer point-of-sale trend management described persists; Mattel reports the results in February.\n- **~2027-02 (est.):** Fourth-quarter results, 2027 guidance and the new management's plans. Shows whether the $1.05 to $1.20 adjusted EPS range holds and whether Lynch's team commits to a standalone plan or opens a sale process.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $17.53, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 on takeover hopes or a recovery. A confirmed offer, an adviser hire for a sale review, or 2026 adjusted EPS guided above the $1.20 top of the range would also show it.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe shares answer to two separate drivers. Deal headlines moved them about 19% on 2026-10-01, to a close of $15.04, with no change in the business. Holiday demand now matters more, because management reported softer POS across major markets. Tariff policy is a third influence, through both the refunds and product costs. A confirmed offer would tie the shares to deal terms and largely end their link to toy demand and the wider consumer group.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:25:37+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}