{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "MMYT",
  "name": "MakeMyTrip Limited",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MMYT/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MMYT.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "MakeMyTrip's mid-year recovery bounce has stalled: after reclaiming the 200-day near $55, MMYT rolled back to ~$49, below both the 50- and 200-day, straight into an August 3 Q1 FY2027 print where consensus models EPS down ~76% YoY on ~137x trailing earnings. A MATURING India-OTA leader where the binary print, not the chart, sets the next leg — stand aside into the print.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $46 loses the 50-day and the last recovery shelf, dropping the bounce back into the $33–46 base; a soft August 3 Q1 FY2027 print confirming deeper take-rate/margin compression and stalled air-ticketing flips the theme from recovery to decelerating.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-03",
  "outcome": "INVALIDATED",
  "outcome_date": "2026-07-23",
  "invalidation_fired": true,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation",
    "travel-leisure"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Consensus PT dispersion: reliable sources cluster ~$70-71 (HSBC $70, 11-analyst avg $70.73); the ~$106 figure some aggregators show appears stale/mixed — treat $70 as the working sell-side anchor.",
    "The +32% recent leg is a mean-reversion bounce off a -69% drawdown from the $104.99 high, NOT a new-high momentum breakout. Do not confuse recovery with acceleration.",
    "Core tension: record FY26 gross bookings $10.4B (~34% 4yr CAGR) coexists with net profit halving — the story is take-rate/margin compression, not demand collapse.",
    "EARNINGS BLACKOUT: Q1 FY2027 print CONFIRMED for 2026-08-03 before market open (webinar 7:30am EDT / 5:00pm IST) — the prior ~2026-07-21 estimate was wrong. Enters the 3-trading-day hard-defer window ~2026-07-29. Avoid fresh entries into the binary.",
    "Failed 200-day reclaim: stock reclaimed ~$55 in early July then rolled back to $49.23 (2026-07-25), now below both 50-day (~$48.83) and 200-day (~$52.27). Recovery structure broken; watch $46 for base breakdown.",
    "Analyst anchor: 10-analyst avg PT $71.90, Strong Buy. Recent revisions cluster ~$65-80 (JPM $60→$65 Jul 14, UBS $85→$80 Jul 9, HSBC init $70 Jul 2, Citi $80→$70 May 19). Stale ~$106 aggregator figures should be ignored — $70-72 is the working sell-side anchor.",
    "Core tension unchanged: record FY26 gross bookings $10.4B (~34% 4yr CAGR) coexists with net profit halving — a take-rate/margin compression story, not demand collapse. Q1 consensus ~EPS $0.10 (down ~76% YoY) on ~$270.7M revenue.",
    "This is a mean-reversion bounce off a -69% drawdown that has now faded, NOT a new-high momentum breakout. Value-trap pattern: off-the-highs multiple on rolled-over structure. Do not average into weakness."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nMakeMyTrip is India's dominant online travel agency — MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, and redBus — and the mid-year recovery bounce that looked like momentum in early July has stalled. The stock bottomed at $32.67 over the trailing year, ran to roughly $58 by 2026-07-10 on HSBC's 2026-07-02 Buy/$70 initiation, then rolled back to $49.23 (2026-07-25 close, $48.87 after-hours). It now sits below both the 50-day (~$48.83) and the 200-day (~$52.27) after reclaiming that 200-day only weeks ago — a failed reclaim, not a fresh breakout.\n\nThe setup is a rolled-over recovery running straight into a binary print. FY2026 delivered record gross bookings of $10.4B, but reported net profit roughly halved, and consensus for the Q1 FY2027 report now dated **2026-08-03 (before market open)** models EPS near $0.10 — down ~76% YoY — on revenue around $270.7M. At ~137x trailing earnings, the August 3 print decides the next leg, not the chart. This is a MATURING travel theme where a beaten-down leader has faded back into its base ahead of a coin-flip event. Standing aside into the print is the disciplined read.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Structural share leader, large runway.** FY2026 gross bookings hit a record $10.4B, compounding ~34% annually over four years; MMYT is the default booking rail for India's digitizing middle class.\n- **Operating leverage is real when mix cooperates.** FY2026 operating profit rose +30.1% YoY, adjusted operating profit improved to $188.8M from $167.3M, and margin expanded to 1.82% of gross bookings.\n- **Higher-take-rate segments growing fast.** FY2026 bus ticketing grew +21.7% and the \"others\" line +29.6%, diversifying away from thin-margin air.\n- **Sell-side still constructive into the print.** A 10-analyst consensus rates Strong Buy with an average target of $71.90 (~46% above ~$49); HSBC initiated $70 on 2026-07-02 and J.P. Morgan raised its target from $60 to $65 (Buy) on 2026-07-14.\n- **Valuation reset already underway.** Market cap is $4.67B, down ~60% from peak; the forward P/E of ~90 versus ~137 trailing shows the Street modelling an earnings ramp the August 3 print could begin to validate.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Profit compresses while bookings grow.** FY2026 net profit roughly halved despite record $10.4B bookings — a take-rate and margin story that directly tests the growth multiple.\n- **The recovery structure has broken.** MMYT fell -6.9% on 2026-07-22 and closed 2026-07-25 below both the 50-day (~$48.83) and the 200-day (~$52.27), forfeiting the late-June $51.56–$54.12 shelf it had climbed above.\n- **Air ticketing is stalling.** FY2026 air revenue slipped -0.7% on a reported basis (+3.3% constant currency), with management flagging macro and geopolitical drag on international travel.\n- **The multiple prices a recovery that hasn't printed.** ~137x trailing earnings into an August 3 quarter where consensus expects EPS down ~76% YoY leaves no cushion for a soft number.\n- **Targets are being trimmed at the margin.** UBS cut its target from $85 to $80 on 2026-07-09 and Citi from $80 to $70 on 2026-05-19; the dispersion is narrowing downward toward the ~$70 HSBC anchor, away from stale ~$106 aggregator figures.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nTrailing-year range: $32.67 low to $104.43 high. Spot $49.23 (2026-07-25 close), $48.87 after-hours. The 50-day sits ~$48.83 and the 200-day ~$52.27, so price trades below both — a bearish configuration, softened only by a reclaimed 20-day on the very short term. The early-July push above the 200-day near $55 has fully reversed; the stock gave back roughly -16% from its ~$58 mid-July high, including the -6.9% session on 2026-07-22, and now rests on the 50-day with the $33–46 base beneath it. The June breakout shelf ($51.56–$54.12) is now overhead resistance rather than support. Market cap $4.67B, ~60% below the peak. This is retracement rolling back into a base, not new-high acceleration — the value-trap pattern the momentum playbook flags: an off-the-highs multiple sitting on rolled-over price structure.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- Consensus expects EPS ~$0.10 (down ~76% YoY) on revenue ~$270.7M (+0.7% YoY). This is the binary that sets the next leg — a 15–25% gap either direction is plausible.\n- **~mid-August: post-print target revisions.** Expect the 10-analyst cluster to re-anchor around the print; watch whether the $70–72 consensus holds or trims further as UBS and Citi have already done.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **~2026-07-29 onward: earnings blackout window.** Three trading days ahead of the August 3 print; fresh entries into the binary are a gamble, not an edge. *(passed 11d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n- **Downside confirmation:** a weekly close below $46 loses the 50-day and the last recovery shelf, dropping the bounce back into the $33–46 base and confirming the theme has flipped from recovery to decelerating.\n- **Upside re-rate:** a clean August 3 beat that stabilizes take-rate and air-ticketing, followed by a reclaim of the 200-day (~$52) on rising volume, would re-open the recovery leg and justify a fresh look at a clean higher-low retest — not before.\n- **Theme decay:** continued air-ticketing deceleration or margin compression across the next two prints would move the read toward SATURATED, with no replacement thesis to carry the multiple.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- As an India-domiciled ADR, reported results carry INR/USD translation sensitivity; a weakening rupee pressures USD-reported revenue independent of local demand.\n- Read-throughs run with global OTA peers (Booking, Expedia, Trip.com) and Indian aviation demand (IndiGo load factors) rather than US mega-cap tech; the tape is driven by India macro and the company's own print.\n- institutional flow to note, not a conviction signal, and separate from HSBC's sell-side $70 initiation.\n- Low beta to the US momentum complex; the August 3 event dominates near-term variance, making index-hedged exposure ineffective around the print.",
  "first_seen": "2026-07-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-07-26T12:31:28+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-07-26",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}