{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "MQ",
  "name": "Marqeta, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MQ/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MQ.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "Marqeta's revenue growth is slowing to 3–5% and Cash App issuance will shrink further in 2027, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the 2027 outlook due in February settles whether gross profit growth recovers.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $20.32, just under the 52-week intraday high set on 2025-12-22, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A 2027 gross profit growth outlook above the 7% top of the fourth-quarter guide would point the same way.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "fintech-consumer-credit"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "SEC EDGAR",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001522540/000152254026000076/mqearningsrelease-q3x2026.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Marqeta Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/11/62848549/marqeta-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Marqeta (MQ) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/marqeta-mq-q3-2026-earnings-161653000.html",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "What Marqeta (MQ) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/marqeta-mq-said-q3-earnings-231404615.html",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 net revenue was $176.2 million, up 8% from $163.3 million; total processing volume was $126.5 billion, up 29%; gross profit was $122.1 million, up 7%.",
      "source": "Marqeta Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $38.8 million, up 28%, a 22% margin on net revenue; operating income was $6.3 million against a $10.4 million loss a year earlier.",
      "source": "Marqeta Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter guidance is net revenue growth of 3–5%, gross profit growth of 5–7% and adjusted EBITDA growth in the mid-20s percent.",
      "source": "Marqeta Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Full-year 2026 net revenue growth guidance fell to 11–12% because one customer is contracting directly with another issuing bank; gross profit growth guidance stayed at 11–12%.",
      "source": "2026-11-03 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Block was 41% of third-quarter net revenue, down from 44% a year earlier; the CFO expects little to no new Cash App issuance on Marqeta by the end of December.",
      "source": "2026-11-03 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Marqeta repurchased 700,000 shares at an average $16.25 in the third quarter, with $140 million left on its $150 million authorization; cash and equivalents were $697.5 million.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 earnings call; Q3 2026 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "UBS raised its Marqeta price target to $21 from $19 and kept a Neutral rating.",
      "source": "Benzinga; fiscal.ai",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Crystal Sumner (officer) sold 1,250 shares at $18.76 on 2026-10-15 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-16",
      "as_of": "2026-10-15"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
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          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "value_musd": 176.2,
              "yoy_pct": 7.9
            },
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              "value_musd": 176,
              "yoy_pct": 17
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 150.4,
              "yoy_pct": 20.1
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 69.3
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 69.7
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 70.1
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              "filed": "2025-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 69.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 3.6
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 2.1
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              "pct": 1.3
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": -4.8
            },
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              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -6.4
            },
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              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -6.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 11
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 115.4,
          "four_quarters_musd": 129.4
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 139.5
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": -5.7
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 698.2
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "none reported"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 698.2,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 12.6,
          "yoy_pct": -15.5
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 36.2,
          "yoy_pct": -17.9
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 40.4
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 836.7
        },
        "market_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 1928.3
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 1230.1,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "multiple": 1.8,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "multiple": 331.5,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "multiple": 14.9
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        "pb": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "multiple": 2.3
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        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 4.28,
      "days_to_cover": 4.6,
      "change_pct": -3.3
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 75688.88,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
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          "bought_usd": 100490.1,
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nMarqeta's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Revenue growth is slowing to 3–5% in the fourth quarter, and management expects a larger Cash App drag in 2027. The 2027 outlook, which the chief financial officer said will come in February, settles whether gross profit growth recovers.\n\nThe 2026-11-03 third-quarter report was mixed. Net revenue of $176.2 million, up 8%, reached the top of the company's 6–8% guide, per the 8-K. Full-year net revenue growth guidance fell to 11–12%. The chief financial officer said one customer is contracting directly with another issuing bank, which lowers revenue and cost of revenue equally and leaves gross profit unchanged. Full-year gross profit growth guidance stayed at 11–12%.\n\nThe shares closed at $18.51 on 2026-11-11, up 12.4% over three months on adjusted daily closes. That price already reflects the October customer wins, which still carry no disclosed revenue figure.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Gross profit guidance stayed intact.** On 2026-11-03 Marqeta kept full-year gross profit growth at 11–12%. Third-quarter gross profit was $122.1 million, up 7%, and management said the revenue cut has no gross profit effect.\n- **Profit is growing faster than sales.** Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, excluding certain items) was $38.8 million, up 28%, a 22% margin on net revenue. Operating income was $6.3 million against a $10.4 million loss a year earlier.\n- **Volume is broadening beyond Block.** Total processing volume (the dollar value of card payments run on the platform) was $126.5 billion in the third quarter, up 29%. On the 2026-11-03 call, management said non-Block volume grew more than twice as fast as Block volume, and Block fell to 41% of net revenue from 44% a year earlier.\n- **Customer wins keep arriving.** The third-quarter release lists the Square Credit Card on American Express, a Coinbase partnership, an expanded Google Wallet for kids collaboration and Satispay's debit card. Company news on 2026-11-05 added a fraud-prevention collaboration with Forter.\n- **This year's pricing headwinds do not repeat.** The chief financial officer said on 2026-11-03 that two contract renewals and Block's price step-down, all 2026 headwinds, do not recur in 2027.\n- **Repurchases continue with cash available.** Marqeta bought back 700,000 shares at an average $16.25 in the third quarter, with $140 million left on its $150 million authorization at 2026-09-30. Cash and equivalents were $697.5 million on that date.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Revenue growth keeps slowing.** Net revenue grew 8% in the third quarter and the company guides 3–5% for the fourth. Benzinga put the guide at $177.3 million to $180.7 million against a $187.0 million consensus estimate on 2026-11-03.\n- **Cash App drag grows in 2027.** The chief financial officer said new Cash App issuance slowed through the third quarter, with little to none expected on Marqeta by the end of December. She said the diversification away from it is still phasing in and will be a bigger drag in 2027.\n- **The October wins lack numbers.** The 2026-11-03 call gave no revenue contribution for the Square Credit Card or the Coinbase program. The chief executive said the credit program launched about three years ago, before Marqeta supported American Express.\n- **Expenses will rise next year.** The chief executive said on the call that expenses will grow in 2027 under the current plan, which narrows the room for margin gains after 2026's record margins.\n- **One customer still dominates.** Block was 41% of third-quarter net revenue, and its Square debit agreement runs through 2028-06-30.\n- **Analysts are neutral after the report.** UBS raised its target to $21 from $19 on 2026-11-05 and kept a Neutral rating, per Benzinga and fiscal.ai. That target sits above the 52-week intraday high.\n- **Headline earnings overstate the quarter.** Third-quarter GAAP net income of $115.4 million and GAAP earnings per share of $1.09 include a $107 million non-cash tax benefit.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $18.51 on 2026-11-11, 10.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $20.56 set on 2025-12-22. Closes since the report have held in a narrow range: $18.60 on 2026-11-04, $18.44 on 2026-11-05, $18.59 on 2026-11-06, $18.40 on 2026-11-09 and $18.34 on 2026-11-10.\n\nThe shares sit above both moving averages on adjusted closes: the 50-day average is $17.44 and the 200-day average is $16.64 as of 2026-11-11. The close on 2026-08-13 was $16.47, and the 52-week closing low was $15.04 on 2026-06-22.\n\nCompany repurchases averaged $16.25 in the third quarter. An officer, Crystal Sumner, sold 1,250 shares at $18.76 on 2026-10-15 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, per SEC Form 4 filings.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-18 (est.):** Marqeta fireside chat at Citi's fintech conference, announced 2026-11-05; the day is estimated from the 2025 event. Management may add detail on the Cash App phase-out and on the revenue timing of the Square Credit Card and Coinbase programs.\n- **~2026-12-02 (est.):** Marqeta fireside chat at UBS's technology conference, announced 2026-11-05; the day is estimated from the 2025 event. A second occasion for management to address 2027 expense growth and gross profit before the February outlook.\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** End-December point at which the CFO expects little to no new Cash App issuance on Marqeta. Marks the start of the larger 2027 drag that management described and shows whether the timing holds.\n- **~2027-02-15 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report and 2027 outlook; Marqeta has not set a date. Settles whether gross profit growth recovers once 2026 pricing headwinds lapse and the Cash App drag grows.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $20.32, just under the 52-week intraday high set on 2025-12-22, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A 2027 gross profit growth outlook above the 7% top of the fourth-quarter guide would point the same way.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nMarqeta's results are tied most directly to Block, at 41% of third-quarter net revenue, so Block's volume and Cash App issuance choices pass straight into Marqeta's numbers.\n\nThe stablecoin part of the story links the shares to digital-dollar card programs and to competitors there. Zerohash launched the Open USD stablecoin for partners including Marqeta on 2026-10-27, and Mastercard launched its BVNK integration on 2026-10-15.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:26:31+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}