{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "MYRG",
  "name": "MYR Group, Inc.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MYRG/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MYRG.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "graded_conviction": "HIGH",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "AI/datacenter power-buildout supercycle lifting grid/electrical contractors; MYRG confirmed it with a record Q1 and a late-June breakout to fresh ATHs (~$487) above the $484.71 shelf. Theme ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed, but the Q2 print on 2026-07-29 (~11 days out) is now the binary — the setup shifts from chasing extension to respecting the print.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $440 fails the June ATH breakout back into the $440–485 base; a close below $420 breaks the 50-day uptrend. Thesis also cracks if Q2 (2026-07-29) backlog prints under $2.84B or gross margin reverts below ~12%.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "outcome": "INVALIDATED",
  "outcome_date": "2026-07-02",
  "invalidation_fired": true,
  "themes": [
    "industrial-power-grid",
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Q2 2026 earnings 2026-07-29 — binary; now inside 30d window. Fresh-add blackout begins ~2026-07-24 (3 trading days prior); avoid new entries into the print.",
    "Clustered insider selling into strength: ~$10.5M over three months, zero buys — Distribution signal.",
    "Above consensus: avg PT ~$442.60 / Simply Wall St FV ~$455 / lagging MarketBeat ~$300; Cantor $564 (raised from $311 on 2026-05-11) is the bull outlier with the only real headroom.",
    "Cleanest non-chase entries: 20-EMA pullback (~$400-420) that holds, or confirmed continuation on volume after the print. Do not anchor to the ~$311 early-May fat pitch.",
    "Stale-data trap: some feeds still show ~$168-186 / RSI ~47 — that is OLD. Confirmed structure is the late-June ATH near $487; 52wk range $158.48-$487.33.",
    "Valuation full: P/E ~49 / fwd P/E ~38, market cap ~$6.9B (+178% YoY) — no margin of safety if AI-capex sentiment cools.",
    "Datacenter ~6% of FY revenue, projected >30% growth next year; Valley Electric (~$328M, announced 2026-05-27) + Comet Electric add grid/electrical capacity.",
    "Breakout confirmed: new ATH $486.26 (2026-06-24), +3.7% to $487.33 (2026-06-25), clearing the $484.71 May–June range cap. Retest support $480-484, then June base ~$440."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nMYR Group is the electrical-construction leg of the AI-power buildout — a transmission/distribution (T&D) and commercial-industrial (C&I) contractor whose backlog is being pulled higher by datacenter power demand and grid modernization. The theme is ACCELERATING and cluster-confirmed (PWR, PRIM, MTZ, GEV all trending), and fundamentals validated it with a record Q1 reported 2026-04-29 (revenue $1.00B +20% YoY, EPS $2.99 beating ~45%, record backlog $2.84B, FY2026 guide raised to ~12% growth). Since early June the stock broke out to fresh all-time highs — $486.26 on 2026-06-24, $487.33 on 2026-06-25 — clearing the $484.71 shelf that had capped the May–June base. The near-term driver is now the Q2 print on 2026-07-29 (~11 days out): it is the next binary and it now sits inside 30 days, so the setup shifts from chasing the breakout to respecting the print.\n\n## Bull Case\n- ATH breakout confirmed 2026-06-24/25: new highs $486.26 then $487.33 cleared the $484.71 range cap on visible volume — the launch the May–June base was coiling for.\n- Record Q1 (2026-04-29): revenue $1.00B (+20% YoY / +$166.8M), EPS $2.99 (beat ~45%), record EBITDA $81.5M, gross margin 13.4% vs 11.6% prior on higher-margin mix and favorable change orders.\n- FY2026 guide raised with the print to ~12% revenue growth plus higher operating-margin targets in both T&D and C&I — management leaning into demand.\n- Record backlog $2.84B as of 2026-03-31 (+7.6% YoY): T&D $980.7M, C&I $1.86B — multi-quarter revenue visibility.\n- Datacenter accelerant: ~6% of FY revenue this year, projected >30% growth next year; C&I builds the in-box electrical systems. Oppenheimer's 2026-06-11 Perform initiation cited T&D and datacenter expansion as structural drivers.\n- M&A adds capacity into rising demand: Valley Holdings/Valley Electric ~$328M (announced 2026-05-27) plus Comet Electric.\n- Sell-side dragged up by price: Cantor Overweight $311→$564 (2026-05-11), Stifel $503 (2026-05-04), fresh Oppenheimer coverage 2026-06-11. Up >230% YTD, +~170% YoY, TTM EPS near $9 — operating leverage, not a one-quarter blip.\n\n## Bear Case\n- Clustered insider distribution: ~$10.5M sold over three months with zero purchases. The people closest to the bid pipeline are selling into the spike.\n- Price above nearly every target: at ~$487 the stock sits over Simply Wall St fair value ~$455, an average PT ~$442.60, and a lagging MarketBeat consensus ~$300. Only Cantor's $564 leaves headroom, and it is the outlier.\n- Binary risk in ~11 days: Q2 prints 2026-07-29 on a parabolic chart (+~195% YoY). A guide that merely meets, or backlog that flattens, can drop a stretched name 10–20% in a session.\n- Valuation full: P/E ~49, fwd P/E ~38, market cap ~$6.9B — no margin of safety if AI-capex sentiment cools.\n- Overbought going in: RSI14 in the mid-70s into the breakout, and a May momentum screen already tagged the industrials group as extended.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe breakout structure from late June is the reference frame: $486.26 (2026-06-24) → $487.33 (2026-06-25) cleared the $484.71 prior high that had defined the top of the May–June base. First support is the breakout-retest zone $480–484; below that sits the June base $440–485, with the base floor near $440. The rising 20-EMA has trailed around $400–420 through the run, and the cleanest non-chase entry across this move has been a pullback to that band that holds rather than a purchase of vertical extension. Into the breakout the stock was parabolic (roughly +60% on the month, +~195% YoY) — a momentum feature in an accelerating theme, but it leaves little cushion ahead of a binary. With Q2 now ~11 days out, the print dominates the chart: a fresh entry here is buying extension into a binary, and the 3-trading-day blackout for new adds begins around 2026-07-24. Stale feeds still quoting ~$168–186 with RSI ~47 are old data — the confirmed structure is the late-June ATH near $487, 52-week range $158.48–$487.33.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- No FDA/PDUFA, no index events, and no scheduled public conference inside the window; the earnings report is effectively the whole calendar.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **~2026-07-24 (est.)** — fresh-entry blackout begins: three trading days before the report, binary risk makes new adds a gamble rather than an edge. *(passed 16d ago)*\n- **2026-07-29** — Q2 2026 earnings (confirmed). The binary. Watch: revenue vs the ~$1.0B Q1 run-rate, EPS vs consensus, backlog vs the $2.84B record, gross margin vs 13.4%, datacenter revenue mix, and any FY2026 guide revision. Backlog under $2.84B or margin back below ~12% signals the acceleration is stalling. *(passed 11d ago)*\n- **Post-print (~2026-07-30 to 2026-08-08)** — analyst PT revisions; watch whether the Cantor $564 bull thesis gets company or whether targets converge toward the ~$442 average. *(passed 1d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n- A weekly close below $440 fails the June ATH breakout and drops price back inside the $440–485 base; a subsequent close below $420 breaks the 50-day uptrend and turns the read to stand-aside until it re-bases.\n- Q2 (2026-07-29) backlog printing under $2.84B, or gross margin reverting below ~12%, breaks the fundamental leg even if price holds temporarily.\n- Theme flips to SATURATED on peer breakdowns — PWR / PRIM / MTZ / GEV rolling over together would remove the cluster confirmation that underwrites the momentum.\n- Continued insider selling with no offsetting buys, especially any acceleration around the print, reinforces the distribution read.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nMYRG trades as a high-beta expression of the grid/electrification and AI-datacenter-power basket: closest reads are PWR (Quanta) and PRIM (Primoris) in T&D construction, MTZ (MasTec) in broad infrastructure, and GEV (GE Vernova) on the equipment side. It is levered to AI-capex sentiment — hyperscaler capex commentary (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META) and datacenter-power headlines move the whole cohort, so a hyperscaler capex-cut scare would hit MYRG harder than its multiple implies. Secondary sensitivities: the long end of the curve (project financing for utility and datacenter clients) and construction input costs. Correlation to the broad tape is loose; correlation to the electrification-narrative cohort is tight, which is why peer breakdowns are the leading invalidation signal rather than SPY beta.",
  "first_seen": "2026-05-03",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-07-18T08:49:48+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-07-18",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}