{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "OLLI",
  "name": "Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OLLI/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OLLI.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Ollie's Bargain Outlet shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500, supported by a $500 million buyback and three analyst target increases since mid-October. The early-December third-quarter report shows whether comparable sales recover from last quarter's 1.8% fall.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $83.00, which would put the shares under both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages and erase the gains made since the 2026-10-13 buyback announcement. Any of these would also break the case: third-quarter comparable sales falling more than 1.8%, a further cut to fiscal 2026 sales guidance, or any cut to adjusted EPS guidance.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-27",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "OLLI Maintained by Keybanc -- Price Target Raised to $120",
      "url": "https://gurufocus.com/news/9185070/olli-maintained-by-keybanc-price-target-raised-to-120",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Ollie's Bargain Outlets will plow $15M into lower prices",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ollie-bargain-outlets-plow-15m-123200089.html",
      "date": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) - What Are Investment Firms Thinking About This Stock?",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/consensus-ollies-bargain-outlet-holdings-inc-olli-what-are-investment-firms-thinking-about-this-stock-2026-10-21/",
      "date": "2026-10-21"
    },
    {
      "title": "Ollie's Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ:OLLI) Shares Climb 3.6% on Analyst Upgrade",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-ollies-bargain-outlet-nasdaq-olli-shares-climb-36-on-analyst-upgrade-2026-10-14/",
      "date": "2026-10-14"
    },
    {
      "title": "Finviz",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/238356/ollies-bargain-outlet-holdings-inc-announces-third-quarter-fiscal-2025-earnings-release-date-and-conference-call-information",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Shares closed at $95.35, above the 50-day moving average of $85.37 and the 200-day moving average of $86.21, and up 22.7% over three months.",
      "source": "Adjusted daily closes",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "KeyBanc kept its Overweight rating on Ollie's and raised its price target to $120 from $98.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "RBC Capital kept its Outperform rating, raised its target to $125 from $124, and lifted third- and fourth-quarter comparable-sales estimates to +1.5% from 0.0%, against consensus of 0.1% and 0.8%.",
      "source": "Benzinga and Investing.com, 2026-10-27",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Board approved an additional $500 million share repurchase authorization with no expiration; total repurchase capacity is about $561 million.",
      "source": "Ollie's 8-K press release (Exhibit 99.1), 2026-10-13",
      "as_of": "2026-10-13"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Comparable store sales fell 1.8% in the second quarter as average basket size declined; total revenue rose 9.1% to $741.3 million.",
      "source": "Ollie's Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release, 2026-09-02",
      "as_of": "2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal 2026 sales guidance cut to $2.928–$2.941 billion from $2.980–$3.000 billion; adjusted EPS guidance raised to $4.57–$4.65 from $4.45–$4.55.",
      "source": "Ollie's Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release, 2026-09-02",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Second-quarter gross margin rose 360 basis points to 43.5%, with tariff refunds contributing 380 basis points.",
      "source": "Retail Dive via Yahoo Finance, 2026-09-02",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CFO Robert Helm exercised options on 1,504 shares on 2026-10-17, with 769 shares withheld for tax at $93.18; no open-market sale was reported.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-20",
      "as_of": "2026-10-20"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-08-01",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-02",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 741.3,
              "yoy_pct": 9.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 658.9,
              "yoy_pct": 14.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-19",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 779.3,
              "yoy_pct": 16.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 613.6,
              "yoy_pct": 18.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-08-02",
              "filed": "2025-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 679.6,
              "yoy_pct": 17.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 576.8,
              "yoy_pct": 13.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 43.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 41.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-19",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 39.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 41.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-08-02",
              "filed": "2025-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 39.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 41.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 14.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 10.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-19",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 14
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-08-02",
              "filed": "2025-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 11.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 9.7
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "value_musd": 114.6
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-08-01",
          "value_musd": 85.5,
          "four_quarters_musd": 273.6
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 340.8
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 117.5
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 223.2
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "base_end": "2025-08-02",
          "pct": -2.5
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "value_musd": 120.8
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "value_musd": 2.2,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt and finance leases plus current maturities"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "value_musd": 118.5
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "value_musd": 17.9,
          "yoy_pct": 2.5
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "value_musd": 7.8
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "value_musd": 704.4
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-02",
          "value_musd": 1895.6
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-02",
          "value_musd": 5629
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-02",
          "value_musd": 5510.4
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-02",
          "multiple": 2
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-02",
          "multiple": 16.1
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-02",
          "multiple": 20.6
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-02",
          "multiple": 3
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-02",
          "pct": 4
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 13.16,
      "days_to_cover": 4.5,
      "change_pct": -14.9
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 1278595.09,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nOllie's Bargain Outlet shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The support comes from a $500 million buyback and three analyst target increases since mid-October. It runs against a 1.8% fall in sales at existing stores last quarter. The third-quarter report, expected in early December, decides the case: it shows whether comparable sales turn positive, as RBC Capital forecasts, and whether fiscal 2026 guidance holds.\n\nThe newest fact is KeyBanc's note of 2026-11-09, reported by Benzinga. KeyBanc kept its Overweight rating and raised its target to $120 from $98. The shares closed at $94.81 that day, up from $90.40 on 2026-11-06, and closed at $95.35 on 2026-11-11, according to daily closes. The company has not reported results since 2026-09-02.\n\nThe price reflects a recovery from the summer low but not yet a return to sales growth at existing stores. The $95.35 close on 2026-11-11 sits 26.9% below the $130.40 52-week intraday high of 2025-11-12. It is also below the $102.43 average broker target MarketBeat reported on 2026-10-21.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Three brokers raised targets in four weeks.** Gordon Haskett upgraded the shares to Buy with a $105 target on 2026-10-13, per Benzinga. RBC raised its target to $125 from $124 on 2026-10-27, and KeyBanc raised its target to $120 from $98 on 2026-11-09, both per Benzinga.\n- **RBC expects comparable sales to turn positive.** On 2026-10-27, RBC lifted its third- and fourth-quarter comparable-sales estimates to +1.5% from 0.0%, per Benzinga and Investing.com. Consensus then stood at 0.1% and 0.8%.\n- **Buyback capacity rose sharply.** On 2026-10-13, the board approved an additional $500 million of repurchases with no expiration date, per the company's 8-K. That brings total capacity to about $561 million.\n- **New stores keep adding revenue.** Ollie's had 686 stores in 36 states on 2026-08-01, up nearly 12% year over year, and planned 75 openings for the year, per Retail Dive on 2026-09-02. Second-quarter revenue rose 9.1% to $741.3 million.\n- **Earnings guidance moved up.** On 2026-09-02, management raised fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance to $4.57–$4.65 from $4.45–$4.55, per the company release.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Existing-store sales are shrinking.** Comparable sales fell 1.8% in the quarter ended 2026-08-01 as average basket size declined, per the 2026-09-02 release. Management cut fiscal 2026 sales guidance to $2.928–$2.941 billion from $2.980–$3.000 billion.\n- **The full-year sales target came down.** Retail Dive reported on 2026-09-02 that management now expects comparable sales flat or slightly up for the year, against an earlier forecast of 2% growth. Chief Financial Officer Robert Helm called 2026 \"a weird year\".\n- **Margin gain leaned on tariff refunds.** Second-quarter gross margin rose 360 basis points (3.6 percentage points) to 43.5%, and tariff refunds contributed 380 basis points, per Retail Dive on 2026-09-02. The refunds account for more than the whole increase.\n- **Lower prices will cost money.** Ollie's plans a $15 million price investment, about $10 million of it in the second half, and said the total could be higher, per Retail Dive on 2026-09-02.\n- **Not every analyst is constructive.** MarketBeat reported on 2026-10-14 that UBS cut its target to $85 from $87 with a Neutral rating. Goldman Sachs cut its target to $100 from $112 while keeping a Buy rating.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $95.35 on 2026-11-11, the highest close of the six sessions since 2026-11-04. That close sits above the 50-day moving average of $85.37 and the 200-day moving average of $86.21, both as of 2026-11-11 from adjusted daily closes. The shares are up 22.7% over three months from the $77.69 close of 2026-08-13.\n\nThe low end of the range is the 52-week closing low of $61.88 on 2026-07-08. The high end is the $130.40 intraday high of 2025-11-12, which the last close trails by 26.9%. The dip to $90.40 on 2026-11-06 reversed within three sessions as KeyBanc's note came out.\n\nInsider selling is not a factor. The only Form 4 filed since the September report, dated 2026-10-20, shows Mr. Helm exercising options on 1,504 shares on 2026-10-17, with 769 shares withheld for tax at $93.18. It includes no open-market sale.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-27:** Black Friday, start of the holiday shopping season. Management's December commentary on fourth-quarter trends covers this period, for which RBC expects comparable sales of +1.5%.\n- **~2026-12-02 (est.):** Third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report; the company has not yet announced the date, and last year's report came on 2025-12-09. Shows whether comparable sales improve on the 1.8% second-quarter decline toward RBC's +1.5% estimate, whether the sales and adjusted EPS ranges hold, and how much of the new buyback was used.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $83.00, which would put the shares under both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages and erase the gains made since the 2026-10-13 buyback announcement. Any of these would also break the case: third-quarter comparable sales falling more than 1.8%, a further cut to fiscal 2026 sales guidance, or any cut to adjusted EPS guidance.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Weaker spending at existing stores outweighs revenue from new openings. Confirmed by: Third-quarter comparable sales declining by more than 1.8%, or a further cut to the $2.928–$2.941 billion sales range.\n- Earnings guidance leaned on one-time tariff refunds that do not repeat. Confirmed by: Gross margin flat or lower year over year in the December report once refund benefits are excluded, or a cut to the $4.57–$4.65 adjusted EPS range.\n- The price investment and competitor promotions squeeze margin without restoring store traffic. Confirmed by: Management raising the $15 million price investment in the December report while comparable sales stay negative.\n- RBC's positive comparable-sales call proves too optimistic. Confirmed by: Third-quarter comparable sales at or below the 0.1% consensus cited by Investing.com on 2026-10-27, with management attributing weakness to consumer pressure.\n- The buyback supports sentiment but goes largely unused. Confirmed by: The third-quarter 10-Q showing little repurchase activity under the new $500 million authorization.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nOllie's sells closeout and excess inventory to shoppers looking for value. The shares therefore tend to respond to reports on lower- and middle-income consumer spending and to results from discount-retail peers. Tariff policy is a second driver: tariff refunds contributed 380 basis points to second-quarter gross margin, per Retail Dive on 2026-09-02, so tariff headlines move the margin outlook directly. The company-specific drivers over the next month are the holiday-season start on 2026-11-27 and the December report itself.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:57:04+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}