{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ONON",
  "name": "On Holding AG",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONON/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONON.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a1",
    "n": 1
  },
  "current_thesis": "On Holding's shares are rated modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 because the company kept FY2026 sales guidance and plans faster fourth-quarter growth; holiday sales from 27 November 2026 and the Q4 report around March 2027 settle it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $30.52, the 2026-09-22 investor-day close, which would erase the gain since the 2029 targets and buyback were announced. A cut to FY2026 sales guidance, or Q4 constant-currency growth no faster than Q3's 17.8%, would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-27",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "SEC EDGAR",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001858985/000185898526000025/a26q3-ex991xpressrelease.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Goldman Sachs lowers On Holding stock price target on margin view",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/goldman-sachs-lowers-on-holding-stock-price-target-on-margin-view-93CH-5016882",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "Cantor Fitzgerald initiates On Holding stock coverage with overweight",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/cantor-fitzgerald-initiates-on-holding-stock-coverage-with-overweight-93CH-5015072",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "On Holding shares fall 5% in premarket as tariff refund flatters Q3 profit beat",
      "url": "https://uk.investing.com/news/earnings/on-holding-shares-fall-5-in-premarket-as-tariff-refund-flatters-q3-profit-beat-4970753",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "Stock Titan",
      "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ONON/on-reports-results-for-the-third-quarter-and-nine-month-period-ended-21za5em5ngw1.html",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "On Reports Results for the Third Quarter and Nine-Month Period Ended September 30, 2025",
      "url": "https://press.on-running.com/on-reports-results-for-the-third-quarter-and-nine-month-period-ended-september-30-2025",
      "date": "2025-11-12"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 net sales were CHF 931.4 million, up 17.2% reported and 17.8% in constant currency; nine-month constant-currency growth was 21.8%.",
      "source": "On Holding Q3 2026 results press release (Form 6-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 gross margin was 72.6%, or 66.9% excluding a CHF 52.6 million US tariff refund (65.7% a year earlier); adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.9% excluding the refund (22.6% a year earlier).",
      "source": "On Holding Q3 2026 results press release (Form 6-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "FY2026 outlook: low-20% constant-currency sales growth (unchanged, CHF 3.47–3.56 billion); gross margin about 67.5% (about 66% ex refunds); adjusted EBITDA margin 21.0–21.5% (19.5–20.0% ex refunds).",
      "source": "On Holding Q3 2026 results press release (Form 6-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.66 beat the $0.46 estimate; sales of $1.147 billion beat the $1.140 billion estimate.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-10",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Direct-to-consumer sales rose 25.0% to CHF 393.3 million (42.2% of net sales); wholesale rose 12.2% to CHF 538.2 million; apparel rose 38.7% to CHF 69.5 million.",
      "source": "On Holding Q3 2026 results press release (Form 6-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "After the Q3 report, JPMorgan raised its target to $46, Morgan Stanley to $43 and KeyBanc to $42; Barclays lowered its target to $42 and UBS to $65; Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated $46.",
      "source": "Benzinga analyst ratings, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Goldman Sachs cut its On Holding price target to $41 from $44 and kept a Buy rating; Truist kept a Buy rating with a $40 target.",
      "source": "Investing.com, 'Goldman Sachs lowers On Holding stock price target on margin view'",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and cash equivalents were CHF 1,339.0 million at 2026-09-30, up from CHF 1,019.9 million at 2025-12-31.",
      "source": "On Holding Q3 2026 results press release (Form 6-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "not available",
      "reason": "no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F)",
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": null,
      "figures": {}
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": null,
      "days_to_cover": 3.1,
      "change_pct": 18
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 59973.88,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 10580700.7,
          "sold_usd": 995245.1,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nOn Holding's shares are rated modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company kept its FY2026 sales guidance and plans for faster fourth-quarter (Q4) growth, and most covering firms held or raised targets after the report. US holiday trading from 2026-11-27 gives the first outside read, and the Q4 report, expected around March 2027, settles it.\n\nThe rating is Medium because the business met its guide while the shares fell. On reported on 2026-11-10 that third-quarter (Q3) net sales rose 17.2% to CHF 931.4 million (Swiss francs), or 17.8% in constant currency (growth with exchange-rate effects removed). Nine-month constant-currency growth was 21.8%. The shares closed at $37.53 on 2026-11-09, $34.70 on 2026-11-10 and $33.07 on 2026-11-12.\n\nA one-off item flattered profit. A CHF 52.6 million US tariff refund lifted Q3 gross margin to 72.6%; without it, gross margin was 66.9%, against 65.7% a year earlier. The adjusted EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was 21.9% without the refund, below 22.6% a year earlier.\n\nThe Q4 report most likely falls just after the coming 63 trading sessions. Until then the shares trade on holiday-season demand and estimate revisions.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Sales met the guide against a hard comparison.** Q3 constant-currency growth of 17.8% came against 34.5% growth in Q3 2025, according to the company's 2025-11-12 and 2026-11-10 releases.\n- **Results beat published estimates.** Benzinga reported on 2026-11-10 that Q3 adjusted earnings per share of $0.66 beat the $0.46 estimate and sales of $1.147 billion beat the $1.140 billion estimate.\n- **Management guides to a faster Q4.** On kept FY2026 growth in the low-20% range in constant currency, CHF 3.47–3.56 billion at spot rates, and said it plans for growth to accelerate in Q4 (Q3 release, 2026-11-10).\n- **Gross margin guidance went up.** On now expects an FY2026 gross margin of about 67.5%, or about 66% excluding tariff refunds, against a prior floor of at least 65% (Q3 release, 2026-11-10).\n- **Several targets rose after the report.** On 2026-11-11, JPMorgan raised its target to $46, Morgan Stanley to $43 and KeyBanc to $42, all at Overweight, and Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight with a $46 target (Benzinga, 2026-11-11).\n- **Own stores and website grew fastest.** Direct-to-consumer sales rose 25.0% to CHF 393.3 million, 42.2% of net sales; apparel rose 38.7% to CHF 69.5 million (Q3 release, 2026-11-10).\n- **US wholesale sell-through improved.** Investing.com's 2026-11-10 report on Goldman Sachs' note said US wholesale sell-out improved from Q2 and partner inventories are healthy.\n- **Cash keeps building.** Cash and equivalents reached CHF 1,339.0 million on 2026-09-30, up from CHF 1,019.9 million at the end of 2025, and a $1 billion buyback is authorized through 2029-12-31.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Underlying profit margin slipped.** Without the tariff refund, the Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.9% against 22.6% a year earlier. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose to CHF 481 million from CHF 397.5 million (Investing.com, 2026-11-10).\n- **Profit guidance did not rise without the refund.** The FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guide stays at 19.5–20.0% excluding refunds; the 21.0–21.5% headline range includes them (Q3 release, 2026-11-10).\n- **Some targets fell.** Goldman Sachs cut its target to $41 from $44 on 2026-11-10; Barclays lowered its target to $42 and UBS lowered its target to $65 on 2026-11-11, all keeping positive ratings (Investing.com; Benzinga).\n- **Direct sales and Asia-Pacific drew caution.** Truist kept a Buy rating with a $40 target on 2026-11-10 while citing softer Asia-Pacific and direct-to-consumer trends (Investing.com, 2026-11-10).\n- **Growth was already reset once.** Cantor Fitzgerald noted on 2026-11-10 that On had earlier cut FY2026 growth to the low-20% range by limiting US wholesale sell-in.\n- **Asia-Pacific carries brand risk.** Chinese brands dropped Kylian Mbappé on 2026-10-27 after his \"dictator\" remark (Benzinga, 2026-10-27); Asia-Pacific grew 31.9% in Q3, the fastest region.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $33.07 on 2026-11-12, down from $34.71 on 2026-11-11 and from $37.53 on 2026-11-09, the last close before the Q3 report. The 3-month change is 2.6%, measured from $32.22 on 2026-08-14.\n\nThe last close sits above the 50-day moving average of $32.06 and below the 200-day moving average of $36.19, both as of 2026-11-12. The 52-week intraday high is $51.08 from 2026-01-09, and the last close is 35.3% below it. The 52-week closing low is $26.76 from 2026-09-15.\n\nThe price reflects doubt about the Q4 acceleration: at $33.07 on 2026-11-12, the shares trade below every post-report target named above, the lowest being Truist's $40. A close back above the 200-day average would show the post-report selling reversing; the kill line sits below the 50-day average, at the 2026-09-22 investor-day close.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-27:** US Black Friday to Cyber Monday shopping period (through 2026-11-30). First outside read on the Q4 direct-to-consumer demand that the guided fourth-quarter acceleration depends on.\n- **~2027-03 (est.):** Q4 and FY2026 results. Shows whether Q4 constant-currency growth accelerated from Q3's 17.8%, whether low-20% FY2026 growth was delivered, and how much stock was repurchased.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $30.52, the 2026-09-22 investor-day close, which would erase the gain since the 2029 targets and buyback were announced. A cut to FY2026 sales guidance, or Q4 constant-currency growth no faster than Q3's 17.8%, would also break the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- The promised Q4 sales acceleration fails to arrive and FY2026 growth lands below the low-20% guide. Confirmed by: Q4 constant-currency growth at or below Q3's 17.8%, or a cut to FY2026 sales guidance at the Q4 report.\n- Underlying profitability erodes as operating costs outpace sales. Confirmed by: FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin excluding tariff refunds below 19.5%, after Q3's 21.9% fell short of 22.6% a year earlier.\n- Analyst targets keep falling after the Q3 report, compressing the valuation. Confirmed by: More covering firms following the cuts by Goldman Sachs to $41 on 2026-11-10 and Barclays to $42 on 2026-11-11, or a rating downgrade from a covering firm.\n- Asia-Pacific, the fastest-growing region, slows further, with the Mbappé backlash in China adding pressure. Confirmed by: Q4 Asia-Pacific constant-currency growth below Q3's 31.9%, or On ending or pausing the Mbappé ambassador deal.\n- Discounting in athletic footwear spreads to On's wholesale accounts and premium pricing. Confirmed by: Wholesale growth below Q3's 12.2%, more promotional activity disclosed, or further guidance cuts from peers after Deckers' 2026-10-22 trim.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nOn trades with premium athletic footwear and apparel peers; Deckers' guidance trim of 2026-10-22 and Nike's results move sentiment across the group. It reports in Swiss francs, so a stronger franc against the dollar lowers dollar-converted results. US tariff policy affects it directly, as the CHF 52.6 million Q3 refund shows. As a consumer discretionary growth name, it is also sensitive to US interest rates: the 2026-11-10 report session coincided with a hotter-than-expected October inflation print that pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5% (Benzinga, 2026-11-10).",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:27:23+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}