{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ONT",
  "name": "Onterris, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONT/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONT.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "Onterris's shares trade on a board-led strategic review that has engaged outside buyers and on a third-quarter cash flow recovery; a review outcome and fourth-quarter operating cash flow against the $30.0M–$40.0M guide settle the case.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $16.00, under the 50-day moving average, which would erase the gain since the 2026-11-04 third-quarter report. The board ending its review with no transaction, or fourth-quarter operating cash flow under $30.0M, would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": "2027-08-04",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "cyclical-industrials"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Onterris, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 (2026-11-04)",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001643615/000119312526447197/ont-ex99_1.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "Onterris Reports Third Quarter Results, Reiterates Full-Year 2026 Guidance, Announces Completed Acquisitions, and Provides Update on Board-led Strategic Review Process",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/onterris-reports-third-quarter-results-210300483.html",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "Onterris, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001643615/000119312526449709/ont-20260930.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Onterris, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 (2026-08-05)",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001643615/000119312526335022/ont-ex99_1.htm",
      "date": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Onterris Reports Second Quarter Results, Updates Full-Year 2026 Guidance, and Announces Board-led Strategic Review Process",
      "url": "https://ir.onterris.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/245/onterris-reports-second-quarter-results-updates-full-year-2026-guidance-and-announces-board-led-strategic-review-process",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Onterris Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/11/62919864/onterris-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter revenue was $203.0M against $224.9M a year earlier; the company says it rose about 13.1% excluding a $45.4M single recovery event in the prior-year quarter.",
      "source": "Onterris Form 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $35.9M, a 17.7% margin, against $33.7M and 15.0% a year earlier.",
      "source": "Onterris Form 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter operating cash flow was $40.9M against $28.1M a year earlier; nine-month operating cash flow was $35.4M against $55.5M.",
      "source": "Onterris Form 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Leverage was 2.9 times at 2026-09-30, down from 3.2 times at 2026-06-30; the company guides to about 2.5 times at year-end, including $30.0M of share repurchases.",
      "source": "Onterris Form 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter 2026 operating cash flow guidance is $30.0M to $40.0M.",
      "source": "Onterris Form 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The company engaged Evercore and AEC Advisors as financial advisors and Kirkland & Ellis as legal counsel, and has engaged with a number of strategic and financial parties.",
      "source": "Onterris Form 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The 10-Q lists the acquisitions of EcOz Environmental Consultants and Permian Basin Environmental Lab as subsequent events; terms were not disclosed.",
      "source": "Onterris Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Barclays maintained an Equal-Weight rating on Onterris and raised its price target to $19.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-06",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 203,
              "yoy_pct": -9.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 186.7,
              "yoy_pct": -20.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 168.5,
              "yoy_pct": -5.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-26",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 193.3,
              "yoy_pct": 2.2
            },
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              "end": "2025-09-30",
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 224.9,
              "yoy_pct": 25.9
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 234.5,
              "yoy_pct": 35.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 43.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 44.1
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 39.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-26",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 38.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 39.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 43.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 3.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -3.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-26",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -1.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 4.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 11.3
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 9,
          "four_quarters_musd": -10.6
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 87.3
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 17.6
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 69.8
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": -4.8
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 20.1
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 322.3,
          "composition": "long-term debt and finance leases"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -302.2
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 9.9,
          "yoy_pct": -28.6
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 45.3,
          "yoy_pct": -36.6
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 129.2
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 449.5
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 816.5
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 1118.7
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 1.5
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 110.8
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 1.8
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        "fcf_yield": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "pct": 8.5
        }
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    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 13.04,
      "days_to_cover": 5.7,
      "change_pct": -2.5
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 610002.6,
          "sold_usd": 2908574.5,
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nOnterris's shares trade on its board-led strategic review and on a third-quarter cash flow recovery. The review has drawn in outside strategic and financial parties, and the rating is Medium because those two supports outweigh a price that already sits above the only post-report analyst target. Whether the review produces a transaction, and whether fourth-quarter operating cash flow lands in the $30.0M–$40.0M guidance, settles the case.\n\nThe shares closed at $23.08 on 2026-11-12, above Barclays' $19 Equal-Weight target of 2026-11-06, per Benzinga. At that price the market already assigns a meaningful chance to a deal. The shares are up 31.0% over three months, and their highest close since the report was $23.66 on 2026-11-10.\n\nThe company's 2026-11-04 release says it does not plan to comment further on the review unless disclosure becomes appropriate or necessary. Quiet weeks with no review headline are therefore likely. The case turns on two dated tests: a company statement on the review's outcome, and the fourth-quarter report, estimated for late February 2027.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **The review has reached outside parties.** The 2026-11-04 release says the company has engaged with a number of strategic and financial parties. It has hired Evercore and AEC Advisors as financial advisors and Kirkland & Ellis as legal counsel.\n- **An unnamed holder has been accumulating shares.** On 2026-08-05 the board adopted a one-year rights plan in response to \"significant and undisclosed accumulation of Onterris shares and derivative securities.\" The company has not named the party.\n- **Cash flow recovered in the third quarter.** Operating cash flow was $40.9M, up from $28.1M a year earlier, per the 2026-11-04 release. Leverage fell to 2.9 times at 2026-09-30 from 3.2 times at 2026-06-30, and the company still guides to about 2.5 times at year-end.\n- **Margins rose while reported revenue fell.** Third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) was $35.9M, a 17.7% margin, against 15.0% a year earlier. Benzinga reported on 2026-11-04 that adjusted earnings per share of $0.56 and revenue of $203.0M beat estimates of $0.10 and $197.1M.\n- **Capital returns and bolt-ons continue.** The 2026-11-04 release says year-end guidance includes $30.0M of share repurchases. It also puts funding for recently completed acquisitions at $13.9M; company news reported EcOz Environmental Consultants on 2026-11-08 and Permian Basin Environmental Lab on 2026-11-09.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **No transaction is promised.** The 2026-11-04 release says the board has set no timetable and gives no assurance of any transaction or other outcome. Much of the rise since the report rests on the review, so an end without a deal would remove that support.\n- **The price sits above the post-report target.** The $23.08 close of 2026-11-12 is above Barclays' $19 target of 2026-11-06, the only analyst target published since the third-quarter report, per Benzinga.\n- **The August guidance cut was large.** On 2026-08-05 the company cut 2026 revenue guidance to $740.0M–$790.0M from $840.0M–$900.0M and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $117.0M–$120.0M from $125.0M–$130.0M. It reaffirmed the lower ranges on 2026-11-04.\n- **Nine-month cash flow still trails last year.** Operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2026 was $35.4M, down from $55.5M a year earlier, per the 2026-11-04 release. The third-quarter 10-Q shows a nine-month net loss of $2.3M.\n- **The run has started to cool.** After closing at $23.66 on 2026-11-10, the shares closed lower on 2026-11-11 and 2026-11-12, ending at $23.08, with no new review update in company news.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $23.08 on 2026-11-12. The post-report run went from $19.42 on 2026-11-05, the first session after the report, to $21.92 on 2026-11-06 and $23.66 on 2026-11-10. The 3-month change is 31.0%.\n\nOn adjusted daily closes, the 50-day moving average is $16.27 and the 200-day moving average is $19.24 as of 2026-11-12. The shares trade above both. The 200-day average and the $19.42 close of 2026-11-05 sit close together and mark the nearest reference below the market.\n\nThe 52-week closing low was $12.71 on 2026-10-02. The 52-week intraday high was $30.00 on 2026-03-02, and the last close is 23.1% below it. With no earnings report due until about late February 2027, review headlines and acquisition news are the main things that move the price.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. It shows whether operating cash flow reached the $30.0M–$40.0M guidance and whether year-end leverage reached about 2.5 times.\n- **2027-08-04:** Stockholder rights plan expires unless terminated earlier. The plan shields the review from an unnamed accumulating holder; its end or early termination would change who can build a controlling stake.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $16.00, under the 50-day moving average, which would erase the gain since the 2026-11-04 third-quarter report. The board ending its review with no transaction, or fourth-quarter operating cash flow under $30.0M, would also break the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- The strategic review ends with no transaction and the review premium leaves the shares. Confirmed by: A company statement that the board has concluded the review with no sale or other transaction.\n- The cash flow recovery falls short after the third-quarter improvement. Confirmed by: Fourth-quarter operating cash flow under $30.0M or year-end leverage clearly above about 2.5 times.\n- Revenue weakness extends beyond emergency response and pass-through work. Confirmed by: A further cut to the $740.0M–$790.0M 2026 revenue guidance or a weak 2027 outlook at the next report.\n- Analysts keep valuing the business below the share price, leaving the price dependent on a deal. Confirmed by: New targets published after 2026-11-04 holding below $20 while the review produces no update.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe shares trade mostly on news specific to Onterris: review headlines, acquisitions and quarterly cash flow. They follow the broad market less closely. The business is environmental testing, consulting, remediation and emergency response, which ties part of its revenue to industrial, energy and regulatory activity, including the Permian Basin oil field through the newly acquired Midland, Texas lab. Within the Cyclical industrials group it shares only broad industrial sentiment with TrueBlue, Columbus McKinnon, Resideo, FTAI Infrastructure, Hayward and Latham Group; TrueBlue rose 21.95% intraday on 2026-11-05, per Benzinga, while Onterris moved on its own report. Onterris was formerly Montrose Environmental Group, ticker MEG, so older price history and research appear under that name.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:05:03+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}