{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "PG",
  "name": "The Procter & Gamble Company",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PG/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PG.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Procter & Gamble's volume-led growth restart, with organic sales up 4% last quarter, makes it modestly likelier to beat the S&P 500 while Brent near $96 stays under the $100 its cost plan assumes. The 19 November 2026 Investor Day and the January report show whether margins recover.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $156, under the $163.00 to $169.00 range at which P&G executives sold shares after the 2026-10-22 report, which would erase the post-earnings gain; or a cut to the fiscal 2027 core EPS range of $6.89 to $7.11.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-19",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "SEC EDGAR",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000080424/000008042426000250/fy2627q1jas8-kexhibit991.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Trading Economics",
      "url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) Stock Forecast & Price Targets",
      "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pg/forecast/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Is Procter & Gamble Stock Riskier Than It Looks?",
      "url": "https://www.trefis.com/stock/pg/articles/623211/is-procter-gamble-stock-riskier-than-it-looks/2026-11-06",
      "date": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "title": "How Bad Would Higher Oil Prices Be For Procter & Gamble Stock?",
      "url": "https://www.trefis.com/stock/pg/articles/620505/how-bad-would-higher-oil-prices-be-for-procter-gamble-stock/2026-10-26",
      "date": "2026-10-26"
    },
    {
      "title": "One Unsettled Question Sits Under Procter & Gamble Stock",
      "url": "https://www.trefis.com/stock/pg/articles/620786/one-unsettled-question-sits-under-procter-gamble-stock/2026-10-27",
      "date": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "title": "PG to Webcast Presentation From PG Investor Day 2026 November 19",
      "url": "https://us.pg.com/newsroom/news-releases/PG-to-Webcast-Presentation-From-PG-Investor-Day-2026-November-19/",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal Q1 2027 net sales were $23.3 billion, up 4%, and organic sales rose 4%, with volume adding about 2 points; all 10 categories and all six regions grew.",
      "source": "P&G Q1 FY2027 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-22"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal Q1 2027 core EPS was $2.00, up 1% and flat on a currency-neutral measure; core gross margin fell 1.5 percentage points to 50.0%.",
      "source": "P&G Q1 FY2027 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-22"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal 2027 core EPS guidance of $6.89 to $7.11 was kept; the after-tax cost estimate rose to about $1.4 billion from about $1 billion in July and assumes Brent crude at $100 a barrel.",
      "source": "P&G Q1 FY2027 earnings release; Trefis report on the 2026-10-22 call",
      "as_of": "2026-10-26"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Brent crude rose about 3.3% to near $95.80 a barrel on 2026-11-12, from a ten-week low of $91.50 on 2026-11-10.",
      "source": "Trading Economics Brent crude page",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "P&G traded at 24.2 times trailing earnings against 22.9 for the S&P 500, and at 4.4 times sales, up from 3.8 at the end of September.",
      "source": "Trefis, 2026-11-06",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Eight P&G officers sold shares at $163.00 to $169.00 between 2026-10-23 and 2026-11-12, including the CEO (35,000 at $163.09) and the CFO (33,624 at $165.00 and 30,677 at $169.00).",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The average analyst target is $174.04 from 25 analysts polled by S&P Global; Bernstein rates the shares Hold with a $170 target, set 2026-11-04.",
      "source": "StockAnalysis PG forecast page",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Defensive",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-22",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 23276,
              "yoy_pct": 4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 21204,
              "yoy_pct": 1.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-24",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 21235,
              "yoy_pct": 7.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-01-23",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 22208,
              "yoy_pct": 1.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-24",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 22386,
              "yoy_pct": 3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 20889,
              "yoy_pct": 1.7
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-22",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 49.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 48.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-24",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 49.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-01-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 51.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-24",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 51.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 49.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-22",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 25.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 18.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-24",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 21.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-01-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 24.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-24",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 26.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 20.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 4731,
          "four_quarters_musd": 16026
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 19915
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 4575
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 15340
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": -1.2
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "value_musd": 15365
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "value_musd": 38925,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt plus current debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "value_musd": -23560
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "value_musd": 6620
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "value_musd": 8485
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-22",
          "value_musd": 55337,
          "label": "including non-controlling interests"
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-22",
          "value_musd": 393559.6
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
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          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-22",
          "value_musd": 417119.6
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-22",
          "multiple": 4.7
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-22",
          "multiple": 21
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-22",
          "multiple": 24.6
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-22",
          "multiple": 7.1
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-22",
          "pct": 3.9
        }
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    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 0.95,
      "days_to_cover": 2.4,
      "change_pct": -9.6
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
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          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 38010135.43,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nProcter & Gamble is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 than to lag it over the next three months. Volume-led growth restarted in the fiscal first quarter, and Brent crude, the main threat to margins, still trades below the $100 a barrel the company's cost plan assumes. The 2026-11-19 Investor Day and the fiscal second-quarter report, expected around 2027-01-21, show whether the growth lasts and whether margins recover.\n\nManagement's estimate of about $1.4 billion in after-tax costs for fiscal 2027 assumes Brent at $100, Trefis reported from the 2026-10-22 earnings call. Brent hit a ten-week low of $91.50 on 2026-11-10, then rose about 3.3% to near $95.80 on 2026-11-12 after President Trump said Washington no longer needs a deal with Iran (Trading Economics). The gap to $100 has narrowed, and that narrowing is the part of the case most open to reversal.\n\nThe operating case rests on the quarter to 2026-09-30. Organic sales, which exclude currency moves and acquisitions, rose 4% after 0% in the prior quarter. Volume added about 2 points, and all 10 product categories and all six regions grew (P&G 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-10-22). Core earnings per share (EPS), which leave out restructuring and other non-core items, were $2.00, up 1%.\n\nThe price already reflects much of the recovery. The shares closed at $168.03 on 2026-11-12, against an average analyst target of $174.04 from 25 analysts polled by S&P Global (StockAnalysis), and Trefis put the trailing multiple at 24.2 times earnings against 22.9 for the S&P 500 on 2026-11-06.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Volume is growing again.** Volume added about 2 points of the 4% organic growth in the fiscal first quarter, after adding nothing in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (company releases, 2026-10-22 and 2026-07-29). Fabric & Home Care, Beauty and Grooming each grew about 5%.\n- **Oil remains under the cost assumption.** Brent traded near $95.80 on 2026-11-12, under the $100 behind the roughly $1.4 billion cost estimate (Trading Economics; Trefis, 2026-10-26). Saudi Arabia reported a 26% rise in October output, and US crude stocks rose about 4.66 million barrels in the week to 2026-11-06, the largest build since August (Trading Economics).\n- **Guidance held despite higher costs.** On 2026-10-22 management kept the $6.89 to $7.11 fiscal 2027 core EPS range while raising its after-tax cost estimate to about $1.4 billion from about $1 billion in July. Trefis reported on 2026-10-27 that management is confident of finishing inside the range.\n- **Price increases are still ahead.** Pricing contributed 0.4 points of first-quarter sales growth (Trefis, 2026-10-27), and management plans price rises tied to new products (fiscal.ai, 2026-11-02).\n- **Buy-rated targets sit above the shares.** On 2026-10-23 BNP Paribas raised its target to $189, Citigroup to $187 and Morgan Stanley to $185 (Benzinga), and Freedom Capital Markets upgraded to Buy with a $176 target (StockAnalysis).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The oil relief is reversing.** Brent rose about 3.3% on 2026-11-12 as Iran's security council secretary said Tehran would not remove enriched nuclear material and Washington stepped back from talks (Trading Economics). A return above $100 puts the cost plan back under strain.\n- **Margins are still falling.** Core gross margin fell 1.5 percentage points to 50.0% in the fiscal first quarter, and core EPS was flat on a currency-neutral measure (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-10-22). Trefis put the total fiscal 2027 hit from costs, currency, interest and other items at $0.79 a share, 11% of fiscal 2026 core EPS (2026-11-06).\n- **One quarter of volume is a short record.** Organic growth was 0% in the quarter to 2026-06-30, so the fiscal first quarter is the only quarter of renewed volume so far (company releases, 2026-07-29 and 2026-10-22).\n- **Executives keep selling into the rally.** SEC Form 4 filings show eight officers sold between 2026-10-23 and 2026-11-12 at $163.00 to $169.00, including CEO Shailesh Jejurikar (35,000 shares at $163.09 on 2026-10-23) and CFO Andre Schulten (33,624 at $165.00 on 2026-11-04 and 30,677 at $169.00 on 2026-11-05). The latest, 2,250 shares at $168.47 by the head of Baby and Feminine Care, came on 2026-11-12.\n- **Neutral targets cluster at the price.** Bernstein's Hold rating carries a $170 target (2026-11-04), and TD Cowen ($166), Piper Sandler ($167) and Barclays ($165) hold Hold-equivalent ratings with targets below the 2026-11-12 close (StockAnalysis, 2026-10-23 to 2026-10-26).\n- **Money is rotating toward cyclicals.** Growth sectors led on 2026-11-09 and cyclicals led while defensives trailed on 2026-11-11 (Benzinga), a session in which P&G fell to $167.67 from $168.66.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $168.03 on 2026-11-12, 1.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $170.52 set on 2026-11-05. They rose 17.0% over three months from the 2026-08-14 close of $144.55, and the 52-week closing low was $138.04 on 2026-01-07.\n\nAs of 2026-11-12, the 50-day moving average stood at $153.11 and the 200-day at $147.88, both well under the price. Closes since 2026-11-05 have held between $165.40 (2026-11-06) and $168.66 (2026-11-10).\n\nExecutive sales in SEC Form 4 filings map where the shares traded after the report: $163.09 on 2026-10-23, $164.43 to $165.00 on 2026-10-30, $163.00 on 2026-11-03, $165.00 on 2026-11-04, $169.00 on 2026-11-05 and $168.47 on 2026-11-12. The consensus target of $174.04 sits 3.6% above the last close (StockAnalysis). P&G funded itself with debt: $3.25 billion of US dollar notes on 2026-10-30 and a €3.25 billion offering closed on 2026-11-04 (fiscal.ai).\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-19:** P&G Investor Day 2026, webcast from Cincinnati with CEO Shailesh Jejurikar and CFO Andre Schulten. The first public management update since 2026-10-22; comments on pricing, savings, long-term targets and the $6.89 to $7.11 core EPS range show how higher costs are being covered.\n- **~2027-01-21 (est.):** Fiscal second-quarter 2027 report. Shows whether volume-led organic growth lasts in the quarter management expects higher costs, and whether the $6.89 to $7.11 core EPS range holds.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $156, under the $163.00 to $169.00 range at which P&G executives sold shares after the 2026-10-22 report, which would erase the post-earnings gain; or a cut to the fiscal 2027 core EPS range of $6.89 to $7.11.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Oil rebounds and cost inflation outruns the volume recovery. Confirmed by: Brent back above $100 through the January report, a rise in the after-tax cost estimate above about $1.4 billion, or management steering toward the $6.89 bottom of the core EPS range.\n- The volume recovery proves to be a single quarter. Confirmed by: Fiscal Q2 2027 organic growth near 1% with a volume contribution of zero or below.\n- Planned price increases reduce the volume that drove the recovery. Confirmed by: Fiscal Q2 2027 pricing contribution rising above 0.4 points while the volume contribution falls below the roughly 2 points of the first quarter.\n- The re-rated valuation fades as executives sell and the price sits near neutral-rated targets. Confirmed by: Further executive sales disclosed in SEC Form 4 filings while the shares fall toward the 50-day moving average, or Buy-rated firms cutting targets after Investor Day.\n- Easing conflict and strong growth sectors draw money out of defensives into cyclicals and technology. Confirmed by: Consumer staples ranking among the weakest sectors on up-market days through November, as on 2026-11-09 and 2026-11-11.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nP&G trades with consumer staples and defensive sectors broadly. It tends to lead when defensives lead, as on 2026-11-05, and lag when growth and cyclical sectors lead, as on 2026-11-09 and 2026-11-11 (Benzinga).\n\nIts cost outlook runs against oil. Brent is the outside price that most directly moves the fiscal 2027 cost estimate, so US-Iran diplomacy and Gulf shipping bear on the shares. Kimberly-Clark shares the same cost and sector exposure; Benzinga reported on 2026-11-05 that Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 had fallen below Kimberly-Clark's 15.5, a measure of how far staples valuations have risen relative to technology.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:28:16+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}