{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "PLNT",
  "name": "Planet Fitness, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLNT/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLNT.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Planet Fitness's third-quarter beat, raised sales outlook and five analyst target increases give the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500; flat membership of about 21.5 million means the New Year join season and the February 2027 report settle it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $51.60, under the $51.69 low of the 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-28 range, which would erase the gain into and after the third-quarter report. A year-end member count below 21.5 million or negative fourth-quarter same-club sales would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-12-09",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Planet Fitness, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001637207/000163720726000047/plntq32026pressreleaseex991.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Planet Fitness, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001637207/000163720726000051/plnt-20260930.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Planet Fitness (PLNT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/05/planet-fitness-plnt-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Planet Fitness Raises 2026 Forecast After Q3 Earnings Beat, Announces $500 Million Share Buyback",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/planet-fitness-raises-2026-forecast-135047802.html",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 revenue was $360.0M, up 9.0%; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.83 vs a $0.81 estimate and $0.80 a year earlier; adjusted net income was $61.9M vs $67.0M.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 press release, Form 8-K; Benzinga",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "System-wide same-club sales rose 1.5% in Q3 2026, and the 2026 outlook rose to about 1.5% to 2% from about 1%.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 press release, Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Membership was about 21.5 million at the end of Q3 2026, flat from the end of Q2; the system had 2,962 clubs.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Wells Fargo raised its target to $75, RBC to $70 from $60, KeyBanc to $68 and Deutsche Bank (Hold) to $58 from $54 on 2026-11-06; TD Cowen kept Hold and raised its target to $61 from $54 on 2026-11-09.",
      "source": "Benzinga and fiscal.ai headlines, 2026-11-06 and 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Planet Fitness acquired Be-Fit, a Portuguese operator with 25 clubs and about 80,000 members, for about €102.5M (about $114.8M); expected accretive to 2027 earnings.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 press release, Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 franchisee equipment placement outlook cut to about 135 to 140 from 150 to 160; new club openings raised to 190 to 195 including Be-Fit.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 press release, Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 interest expense was $34.1M vs $26.3M a year earlier; long-term debt was $2,496.8M before financing costs; cash was $310.2M.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 Form 10-Q",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The company retired 6.36 million shares for about $303.9M in the first nine months of 2026; a new $500M repurchase authorization was approved.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 Form 10-Q and press release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 360,
              "yoy_pct": 9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
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              "value_musd": 365.2,
              "yoy_pct": 7.1
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              "value_musd": 337.2,
              "yoy_pct": 21.9
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              "value_musd": 376.3,
              "yoy_pct": 10.5
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              "value_musd": 330.3,
              "yoy_pct": 13
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 340.9,
              "yoy_pct": 13.3
            }
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
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              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 81.8
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              "pct": 82.3
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 82.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 28.2
            },
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 33.9
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              "pct": 29.3
            },
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              "pct": 28.2
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              "pct": 32.4
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              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 30
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 72.8
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 52,
          "four_quarters_musd": 231
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 412.9
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 199
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 213.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 400.5
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 2544,
          "composition": "long-term debt plus short-term borrowings"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -2143.5
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 99.4,
          "yoy_pct": 4.2
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 99.4,
          "yoy_pct": 4.2
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 73.6
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 8.1
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -608.9
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": null,
      "days_to_cover": 4,
      "change_pct": -11.6
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 119263.44,
          "sold_usd": 358540,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 1090813.44,
          "sold_usd": 358540,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nPlanet Fitness shares have a modest edge over the S&P 500 for the next three months. The reasons are the 2026-11-05 third-quarter beat, a raised sales outlook and five analyst target increases between 2026-11-06 and 2026-11-09. Membership is flat at about 21.5 million, so the New Year join season and the fourth-quarter report, expected around late February 2027, decide the case.\n\nRevenue rose 9.0% to $360.0 million in the third quarter, per the company's 8-K. System-wide same-club sales rose 1.5%, and the company raised its 2026 same-club outlook to about 1.5% to 2% from about 1%. Higher prices drove the gain, and net member joins did not turn.\n\nBrokers followed the report. Wells Fargo raised its target to $75, RBC Capital to $70 from $60 and KeyBanc to $68, all keeping positive ratings, per Benzinga headlines on 2026-11-06. Deutsche Bank kept a Hold rating and lifted its target to $58 from $54 the same day. TD Cowen kept a Hold rating and raised its target to $61 from $54 on 2026-11-09, per Benzinga.\n\nThe price already reflects a recovery from the low, though not a return to member growth. The shares closed at $61.19 on 2026-11-11, close to TD Cowen's $61 target, up 51% from the $40.50 closing low of 2026-09-28 and still 46.4% below the 52-week high.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Outlook raised across the top line.** On 2026-11-05 the company raised 2026 revenue growth to about 8% from about 7% and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) growth to about 6.5% from about 6%, per its 8-K. Benzinga put the new $1.430 billion sales outlook above a $1.425 billion estimate.\n- **Refranchising could release capital.** The company began a review of about 280 US corporate clubs, aiming for corporate ownership below 10% of the system, per the 2026-11-05 earnings call. Guidance excludes any sale.\n- **Be-Fit opens a new market.** The company bought Be-Fit, a Portuguese operator with 25 clubs and about 80,000 members, for about €102.5 million (about $114.8 million), per its 2026-11-05 8-K. It expects the deal to add to 2027 earnings and plans to refranchise the business later.\n- **Buybacks keep shrinking the share count.** The company retired 6.36 million shares for about $303.9 million in the first nine months of 2026, per its third-quarter 10-Q filed 2026-11-05. The board approved a new $500 million authorization alongside the report.\n- **Most targets sit above the price.** Wells Fargo at $75, RBC at $70 and KeyBanc at $68 are all above the $61.19 close of 2026-11-11, per Benzinga headlines dated 2026-11-06.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Member growth remains flat.** Membership held at about 21.5 million from the end of the second quarter to the end of the third, per the 2026-11-05 call. Same-club sales growth slowed to 1.5% in the third quarter from 1.7% in the second.\n- **Earnings growth leans on fewer shares.** Adjusted net income fell to $61.9 million from $67.0 million a year earlier, while adjusted EPS (earnings per share) rose to $0.83 from $0.80, per the 2026-11-05 8-K. The adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 40.6% from 42.6%.\n- **Debt costs are rising.** Third-quarter interest expense was $34.1 million against $26.3 million a year earlier, per the 10-Q. Long-term debt was $2,496.8 million before financing costs on 2026-09-30, against $310.2 million of cash.\n- **Franchisees are spending less on equipment.** The 2026 outlook for franchisee equipment placements fell to about 135 to 140 from 150 to 160, per the 2026-11-05 8-K. That cuts a revenue line and signals caution among club owners.\n- **The Hold-rated brokers see little upside.** TD Cowen's $61 target of 2026-11-09 sits at the current price, and Deutsche Bank's $58 target of 2026-11-06 sits below it, per Benzinga.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $61.19 on 2026-11-11, per adjusted daily closes. They have held between $60.07 and $61.34 in the five sessions since the report, after a jump from the $57.34 close of 2026-11-04. The 3-month change is 24.6%, measured from the $49.10 close of 2026-08-13.\n\nThe last close sits above both main moving averages as of 2026-11-11: the 50-day average of $49.79 and the 200-day average of $60.53. The margin over the 200-day average is under 1%, so the shares are testing the line of their longer trend after the decline that followed the 2026-05-07 guidance cut and the roughly 31% one-day drop that day.\n\nBefore the report, the shares traded as low as $51.69 between 2026-10-19 and 2026-10-28. The 52-week closing low is $40.50 on 2026-09-28. The 52-week intraday high is $114.26, set on 2025-12-16, and the last close is 46.4% below it.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-09:** Federal Reserve policy decision (meeting 2026-12-08 to 2026-12-09). The rate path bears on the cost of the company's securitized and variable-rate debt that funds buybacks, and on the budgets of its price-sensitive members.\n- **~2026-12-28 (est.):** Full New Year advertising campaign launches. It is the first full test of the new creative in the main join season and bears on whether membership grows from about 21.5 million.\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report and 2027 outlook. It shows the year-end member count, fourth-quarter same-club sales, early join-season results, any refranchising transactions and 2027 guidance.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $51.60, under the $51.69 low of the 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-28 range, which would erase the gain into and after the third-quarter report. A year-end member count below 21.5 million or negative fourth-quarter same-club sales would also break the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Member growth fails to restart, leaving same-club sales dependent on price increases. Confirmed by: A year-end member count below about 21.5 million or negative fourth-quarter same-club sales in the February 2027 report.\n- The New Year campaign fails to lift joins in the main sign-up season. Confirmed by: Management describing January 2027 joins as below the prior year at the fourth-quarter report.\n- The corporate club review produces little capital or takes much longer than the market expects. Confirmed by: Management ending the review without transactions, or no announced club sales by the February 2027 report.\n- Higher rates raise debt costs and squeeze budget-conscious members. Confirmed by: A higher net interest expense outlook at the February 2027 report, or a Fed rate increase with the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 5%.\n- Franchisees slow their spending on equipment and new clubs. Confirmed by: A further cut to equipment placements below 135 to 140, or a 2027 franchise unit growth outlook below the 2026 level.\n- The Be-Fit purchase adds integration cost and slows the move to a lighter franchise model. Confirmed by: Be-Fit diluting 2027 earnings, against the company's accretion forecast, or refranchising plans for it being dropped.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nPlanet Fitness trades with consumer-discretionary stocks that depend on budget-conscious households, so a broad pullback in consumer spending names would weigh on the shares without any change in the company's own results.\n\nThe shares are also sensitive to interest rates through the securitized debt that funds buybacks. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 5.1% on 2026-10-16, per Benzinga, and the Federal Reserve decision on 2026-12-09 can move the stock independently of membership trends.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:57:58+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}