{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "PRLB",
  "name": "Proto Labs, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRLB/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRLB.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Proto Labs' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: record third-quarter revenue was offset by a 44.5% gross margin, and the fourth-quarter report in late February 2027 shows whether margins recover.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $84.39, a level the shares have not closed above since the 2026-10-29 report drop, which would show the shares leading. Fourth-quarter non-GAAP gross margin back above the second quarter's 46.4% would also show it.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "cyclical-industrials"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Finviz",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/411151/protolabs-reports-financial-results-for-the-third-quarter-of-2026",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "TIKR",
      "url": "https://www.tikr.com/it/blog/proto-labs-sinks-15-as-higher-raw-material-costs-squeeze-margins-despite-record-quarter",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was a record $154.3 million, up 14.0% from a year earlier; GAAP operating margin was 9.4% versus 6.5%.",
      "source": "Protolabs third-quarter 2026 results release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Full-year 2026 revenue-growth guidance was raised to 10%–11% from 8%–10%.",
      "source": "Protolabs third-quarter 2026 results release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: revenue $143.0–$151.0 million; non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.46–$0.54; GAAP diluted EPS $0.28–$0.36.",
      "source": "Protolabs third-quarter 2026 results release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter service growth: injection molding +12.5%, CNC machining +16.4%, 3D printing +11.4%, sheet metal −4.7%.",
      "source": "Protolabs third-quarter 2026 results release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Non-GAAP gross margin was 44.5% versus 45.9% a year earlier; the CFO cited higher raw material costs.",
      "source": "Protolabs release; TIKR",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Shares fell 15% on 2026-10-29 to a close near $78 despite the record quarter.",
      "source": "TIKR",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CEO Krishna Suresh bought 750 shares at $69.52 on 2026-11-02; director Rainer Gawlick bought 720 shares at $68.18 on 2026-11-03.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings dated 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and investments totalled $175.0 million, up from $162.9 million on 2026-06-30.",
      "source": "Protolabs third-quarter 2026 results release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 154.3,
              "yoy_pct": 14
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-31",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 149.3,
              "yoy_pct": 10.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 139.3,
              "yoy_pct": 10.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-20",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 136.5,
              "yoy_pct": 12.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-31",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 135.4,
              "yoy_pct": 7.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-31",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 135.1,
              "yoy_pct": 7.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 44.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-31",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 46.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 45.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-20",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 44.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-31",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 45.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-31",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 44.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 9.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-31",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 7.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 7.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-20",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-31",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-31",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 3.7
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-29",
          "value_musd": 16.2
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-29",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 11.8,
          "four_quarters_musd": 35
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-29",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 72.2
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-29",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 23.6
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-29",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 48.6
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-29",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 1
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-29",
          "value_musd": 151.1
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-12-31",
          "filed": "2026-02-20",
          "value_musd": 9.6,
          "yoy_pct": 10.3
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-29",
          "value_musd": 99.3
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-29",
          "value_musd": 16.5
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-29",
          "value_musd": 701.8
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-29",
          "value_musd": 1612.5
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-29",
          "multiple": 46
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-29",
          "multiple": 2.3
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-29",
          "pct": 3
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 2.74,
      "days_to_cover": 3.2,
      "change_pct": -11.7
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 101229.6,
          "sold_usd": 902629,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 101229.6,
          "sold_usd": 3342590.06,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nProto Labs' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Record third-quarter revenue and a raised 2026 growth forecast were overshadowed by a gross margin that fell to 44.5%, and the fourth-quarter report, expected in late February 2027, shows whether margins recover.\n\nThe shares closed at $68.61 on 2026-11-12. That is 31.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $99.96 set on 2026-10-06 and 25.3% lower than three months earlier. The 52-week closing low is $46.81, set on 2025-11-20.\n\nAt $68.61 the shares sit below the 200-day average of $73.80, so the market is pricing the margin decline as lasting rather than as a one-quarter dip.\n\nThe company's own insiders bought after the drop. Chief Executive Officer Krishna Suresh bought 750 shares at $69.52 on 2026-11-02, and director Rainer Gawlick bought 720 shares at $68.18 on 2026-11-03 (SEC Form 4 filings dated 2026-11-04). The purchases are small, and the shares have not recovered the post-report losses.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Revenue beat guidance and estimates.** Third-quarter 2026 revenue was a record $154.3 million, up 14.0% from a year earlier. It topped the company's own $145.0–$153.0 million range and the $149.037 million analyst estimate (company results release, 2026-10-29).\n- **The growth forecast moved up.** On 2026-10-29 the company raised 2026 revenue-growth guidance to 10%–11% from 8%–10%.\n- **Every large service grew.** Injection molding grew 12.5% to $53.7 million, computer numerical control (CNC) machining 16.4% to $73.4 million, and 3D printing 11.4% to $22.4 million, a turn from a 2.6% decline in 3D printing in the second quarter (Protolabs release, 2026-10-29).\n- **Profit rose faster than sales.** GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) operating margin was 9.4% against 6.5% a year earlier. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.63 against $0.47 and above the $0.60 estimate.\n- **Insiders bought and cash grew.** The CEO and a director made open-market purchases on 2026-11-02 and 2026-11-03 (SEC Form 4). Cash and investments were $175.0 million on 2026-09-30, up from $162.9 million on 2026-06-30. The company said on 2026-11-03 that it raised Multi Jet Fusion 3D printing capacity by 50%.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Gross margin fell.** Non-GAAP gross margin was 44.5% in the third quarter, against 45.9% a year earlier (company release) and 46.4% in the second quarter (TIKR). Chief Financial Officer Dan Schumacher attributed the decline mainly to higher raw material costs, plus machine upgrades and added labor and contractor support.\n- **The fourth-quarter outlook is lower.** Revenue guidance of $143.0–$151.0 million tops out below the $154.3 million reported for the third quarter. Non-GAAP earnings per share guidance of $0.46–$0.54 compares with $0.63 in the third quarter.\n- **The shares fell on a beat.** TIKR reported a 15% drop on 2026-10-29 to a close near $78. The shares closed at $63.03 on 2026-11-05, with no new company filing explaining the further decline.\n- **Sheet metal shrank.** Sheet metal revenue fell 4.7% in the third quarter (company release, 2026-10-29), the one large service that declined.\n- **Valuation was high going in.** TIKR said the shares were near the top of their five-year valuation range before the report, which left little cushion once margins slipped.\n- **Robotics still lacks a dollar figure.** The third-quarter release does not mention robotics. The only disclosed figure remains a growth rate for first-half 2026 revenue from robotics customers.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $68.61 on 2026-11-12, up from $63.03 on 2026-11-05 and $65.69 on 2026-11-06. Closes since then: $69.09 on 2026-11-09, $67.93 on 2026-11-10 and $69.11 on 2026-11-11.\n\nThe 200-day average of closes is $73.80 and the 50-day average is $84.19, both as of 2026-11-12. The shares sit below both. The 50-day average is falling toward the shares as the high-priced September and October sessions roll out of the window.\n\nThe sequence runs from the 52-week intraday high of $99.96 on 2026-10-06, to a close near $78 after the 2026-10-29 report (TIKR), to the $63.03 close on 2026-11-05. The second stage of the decline came after the report had been digested, which points to selling on the margin outlook, not on the headline results.\n\nNo company report falls inside the next 30 days. Insider selling earlier in the run-up came from the chief financial officer, who sold 5,000 shares at $85.21 on a 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 average and 5,000 shares at $95.32 on 2026-09-24, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4 filings).\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02-26 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results (date unconfirmed). Shows whether gross margin recovers from 44.5% and whether revenue lands in the $143.0–$151.0 million guidance range.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $84.39, a level the shares have not closed above since the 2026-10-29 report drop, which would show the shares leading. Fourth-quarter non-GAAP gross margin back above the second quarter's 46.4% would also show it.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nProto Labs sells custom prototypes and low-volume parts to engineering and product-development teams, so revenue follows industrial and product-development budgets. It trades with small-cap industrial and manufacturing-services shares. Raw material prices, including metals and plastic resins, feed directly into its gross margin.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T00:27:41+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}