{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "PTC", "name": "PTC Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTC/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTC.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a5", "n": 5 }, "current_thesis": "PTC Inc. is pinned just below Schneider Electric's $205-per-share cash offer, which the buyer called best and final, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it. Antitrust and CFIUS reviews, the shareholder vote and a third-quarter 2027 close decide the outcome.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $217.72, above the $205 offer, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. A rival proposal above $205 or a raised Schneider price would do the same.", "catalyst_date": null, "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "m-and-a-special-situations" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "PTC INC. - Form PREM14A - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000857005/000114036126041824/ny20084401x1_prem14a.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "With $25B in bridge financing committed, PTC (PTC) puts its cash merger with Schneider Electric to a vote.", "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/PTC/prem14a-ptc-inc-preliminary-merger-proxy-statement-c5d547be8ee9.html", "date": "2026-11-03" }, { "title": "PTC ANNOUNCES FOURTH FISCAL QUARTER AND FULL FISCAL YEAR 2026 RESULTS", "url": "https://www.placera.se/pressmeddelanden/ptc-ptc-announces-fourth-fiscal-quarter-and-full-fiscal-year-2026-results-20261104", "date": "2026-11-04" }, { "title": "PTC Beats Q4 2026 Estimates as ARR Rises 8% Before Schneider Takeover", "url": "https://247wallst.com/cards/ptc-q4-2026-earnings-ptc-01m6m654wgxmzecr7rwafk0mdx", "date": null }, { "title": "PTC INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000857005/000119312526413124/d174191d8k.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "PTC to Be Acquired by Schneider Electric for $205 Per Share in All-Cash Merger", "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:eee30356955d3:0-ptc-to-be-acquired-by-schneider-electric-for-205-per-share-in-all-cash-merger/", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Schneider Electric agreed to acquire PTC for $205 per share in cash, a 42.3% premium to PTC's 2026-10-02 close. The deal values PTC's equity at about $22.6 billion and its enterprise value at about $23.7 billion.", "source": "PTC Form 8-K and exhibit 99.1, 2026-10-05", "as_of": "2026-10-05" }, { "claim": "PTC filed its preliminary merger proxy, which states that the parties have filed under the HSR Act and filed a voluntary draft CFIUS notice.", "source": "PTC Form PREM14A, SEC EDGAR", "as_of": "2026-11-03" }, { "claim": "Schneider offered $190 per share on 2026-09-08, then $200 on 2026-09-17, and on 2026-09-19 offered $205, which it called its best and final offer.", "source": "PTC Form PREM14A, Background of the Merger", "as_of": "2026-11-03" }, { "claim": "A large non-US software company indicated interest at $180 to $190 per share, partly in ADRs, on 2026-08-31. A third party contacted on 2026-09-10 declined to engage.", "source": "PTC Form PREM14A, Background of the Merger", "as_of": "2026-11-03" }, { "claim": "Schneider has $25 billion of committed bridge financing. The merger's outside date is 2027-04-04, extendable in three-month steps for up to nine months.", "source": "PTC Form PREM14A", "as_of": "2026-11-03" }, { "claim": "ARR excluding the divested Kepware and ThingWorx businesses was $2,508 million, up 8% year over year and 9.7% in constant currency. Fourth-quarter revenue fell 25% to $673 million.", "source": "PTC Q4 FY2026 results release, 2026-11-04", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "Fiscal 2026 free cash flow was $872.7 million, up 2%. Fourth-quarter free cash flow was $37.7 million, down 63%, after divestiture-related costs and taxes.", "source": "PTC Q4 FY2026 results release, 2026-11-04", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "Fourth-quarter non-GAAP EPS of $2.03 beat the $1.96 consensus estimate.", "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-04", "as_of": "2026-11-04" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Technology", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-06-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "restated": null, "value_musd": 600, "yoy_pct": -6.8 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-07", "restated": null, "value_musd": 774.3, "yoy_pct": 21.7 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-05", "restated": null, "value_musd": 685.8, "yoy_pct": 21.4 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-21", "restated": null, "value_musd": 893.8, "yoy_pct": 42.7 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-31", "restated": null, "value_musd": 643.9, "yoy_pct": 24.2 }, { "end": "2025-03-31", "filed": "2025-05-01", "restated": null, "value_musd": 636.4, "yoy_pct": 5.5 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "restated": null, "pct": 81.7 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-07", "restated": null, "pct": 85.3 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-05", "restated": null, "pct": 82.8 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-21", "restated": null, "pct": 86.9 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-31", "restated": null, "pct": 82.9 }, { "end": "2025-03-31", "filed": "2025-05-01", "restated": null, "pct": 83.3 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "restated": null, "pct": 27.7 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-07", "restated": null, "pct": 38.2 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-05", "restated": null, "pct": 32.2 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-21", "restated": null, "pct": 48.5 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-31", "restated": null, "pct": 32.6 }, { "end": "2025-03-31", "filed": "2025-05-01", "restated": null, "pct": 35.1 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": 152.4 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "four_quarters_end": "2026-06-30", "value_musd": 118.8, "four_quarters_musd": 1223.8 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "first_end": "2025-09-30", "value_musd": 955.3 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "first_end": "2025-09-30", "value_musd": 19.8 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "first_end": "2025-09-30", "value_musd": 935.5 }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "base_end": "2025-06-30", "pct": -4.6 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": 351.5 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": 1423.3 }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": -1071.9 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": 712.5, "yoy_pct": -8.3 }, "backlog": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": 2417.7, "yoy_pct": 4.7 }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": 824.1 }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": 3469.7 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-07-29", "basis_filed": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": 21267.2 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-07-29", "basis_filed": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": 22339.1 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-07-29", "basis_filed": "2026-07-31", "multiple": 7.6 }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-07-29", "basis_filed": "2026-07-31", "multiple": 20 }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-07-29", "basis_filed": "2026-07-31", "multiple": 17.4 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-07-29", "basis_filed": "2026-07-31", "multiple": 6.1 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-07-29", "basis_filed": "2026-07-31", "pct": 4.4 } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 4.42, "days_to_cover": 1, "change_pct": -12.5 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 342562.5, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 11882632.23, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nPTC Inc. trades as a merger target pinned just below Schneider Electric's $205-per-share cash offer, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The outcome depends on the antitrust and national-security reviews, the PTC shareholder vote and a close that both companies target for the third quarter of 2027.\n\nPTC's preliminary merger proxy (Form PREM14A), filed on 2026-11-03, makes a higher price less likely. It calls Schneider's $205 offer of 2026-09-19 its \"best and final\" bid, after offers of $190 on 2026-09-08 and $200 on 2026-09-17. The only other 2026 proposal, from an unnamed large non-US software company, was $180 to $190 per share, paid partly in American depositary receipts (ADRs). A third party contacted on 2026-09-10 declined to engage.\n\nThe shares closed at $196.14 on 2026-11-11, below the offer. The fiscal fourth-quarter beat on 2026-11-04 barely moved them: they closed at $195.18 that day and $194.60 on 2026-11-05. The price now tracks deal odds and timing more than PTC's operating results.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Cash offer at a large premium.** Schneider's $205 per share is a 42.3% premium to PTC's 2026-10-02 close, according to PTC's 2026-10-05 Form 8-K. Evercore told PTC's board on 2026-10-04 that the price is fair from a financial point of view (PREM14A, 2026-11-03).\n- **Financing committed, no financing condition.** The proxy cites $25 billion of committed bridge financing from Morgan Stanley Europe and Société Générale, and the merger is not conditioned on financing (PREM14A, 2026-11-03). S&P and Moody's affirmed Schneider's ratings on 2026-10-06 (AskTraders).\n- **Regulatory process has started.** The parties have filed under the Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) Act and filed a voluntary draft notice with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), according to the proxy dated 2026-11-03.\n- **Standalone business still growing.** PTC reported annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $2,508 million at 2026-09-30, excluding the divested Kepware and ThingWorx businesses, up 8% from a year earlier and 9.7% in constant currency (results release, 2026-11-04). Fourth-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.03 beat the $1.96 estimate (Benzinga, 2026-11-04).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Buyer called $205 its final price.** The proxy filed on 2026-11-03 records Schneider's 2026-09-19 offer as \"best and final,\" and the only rival 2026 proposal came in lower, at $180 to $190. That leaves little sign of a higher bid.\n- **Long wait for a fixed payout.** The companies expect to close in the third quarter of calendar 2027 (PREM14A, 2026-11-03). The S&P 500 topped 7,800 in the week to 2026-10-09 (Benzinga), and a fixed cash price cannot keep pace with a rising index.\n- **Outside date already looks tight.** The merger agreement's outside date is 2027-04-04, extendable in three-month steps for up to nine months if regulatory conditions remain open (PREM14A). The third-quarter 2027 target already assumes an extension.\n- **Reported results are shrinking.** Fourth-quarter revenue fell 25% to $673 million and free cash flow fell 63% to $37.7 million, which the company attributes to license timing, the divestitures and related costs (results release, 2026-11-04). PTC no longer gives guidance or holds earnings calls while the merger is pending.\n- **One-way break fee.** PTC owes Schneider $700 million in specified circumstances, including accepting a superior proposal (8-K, 2026-10-05). That fee raises the cost for any rival bidder.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $196.14 on 2026-11-11, just under the 52-week intraday high of $196.79 set on 2026-11-10. They are up 27.5% over three months on adjusted daily closes, and nearly all of that came from the deal announcement on 2026-10-05. The 52-week closing low was $112.33 on 2026-06-23.\n\nAs of 2026-11-11, the 50-day moving average was $169.43 and the 200-day was $148.33. Both lag far behind because they still include pre-deal prices. They say little about a stock now priced off a fixed offer.\n\nThe level that matters is $205. Closes between $194.60 and $196.55 from 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-11 show a steady gap to the offer. That gap is the market's price for waiting until late 2027 and for the risk the deal fails. A narrowing toward $205 would mean regulatory progress or a shorter timeline. A widening toward the high $180s would mean rising doubt about completion.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-15 (est.):** Expected end of the initial HSR antitrust waiting period, then a definitive proxy setting the special-meeting date. An HSR expiry without a second request would clear one of the two US regulatory conditions. A second request would push the timeline out.\n- **~2027-02-04 (est.):** PTC fiscal Q1 2027 results, with no call and no guidance. This is the first standalone report since the proxy. ARR growth near the 8% pace keeps the business consistent with the deal; a sharp slowdown could raise doubts about completion.\n- **~2027-04-04 (est.):** Initial outside date under the merger agreement. If CFIUS or antitrust clearance is still pending, the date extends in three-month steps. Any extension past the third-quarter 2027 target would lengthen the wait for the fixed $205 payout.\n- **~2027-09-30 (est.):** Targeted deal close after CFIUS, antitrust and shareholder approvals. PTC holders receive $205 in cash per share at closing. Any slip past this target lowers the annual return implied by the gap to the offer.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $217.72, above the $205 offer, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. A rival proposal above $205 or a raised Schneider price would do the same.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nWhile the merger is pending, PTC trades on deal-completion odds, timing and interest rates. It follows software peers and its own results far less than before the announcement, as the flat reaction to the 2026-11-04 beat showed. The closest outside links are Schneider Electric's share price and credit standing, which bear on funding, and short-term US rates, which set the return merger-arbitrage investors demand on the gap to $205.\n\nDirector Corinna Lathan sold 1,750 shares at $195.75 on 2026-10-05 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (SEC Form 4, 2026-10-06). That is the only open-market insider sale since the announcement.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T03:48:04+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }