{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "QSI",
  "name": "Quantum-Si Incorporated",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QSI/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QSI.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "Quantum-Si's shares still price in more than its Proteus protein sequencer has delivered: launch is guided for Q2 2027, and 2026 revenue for about $1.0M. The company's all-20-amino-acid target, due by year-end 2026, is the next test.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $1.49, over the 2026-11-09 close of $1.37, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A result pointing the same way: detection of all 20 amino acids announced before 2026-12-31 with the Q2 2027 launch date intact.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Quantum-Si Inc - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001816431/000181643126000072/qsi1152026ex991.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Quantum-Si Pivots to Cash Preservation Ahead of Q2 2027 Proteus Launch",
      "url": "https://www.panabee.com/news/quantum-si-earnings-q3-2026",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 revenue was $212K vs $552K in Q3 2025 and a $280K analyst estimate; net loss was $22.3M; adjusted EBITDA was −$17.0M.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Ex. 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $149.4M; management expects them to fund operations into Q4 2028.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Ex. 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "FY2026 guidance: revenue about $1.0M (reiterated); adjusted operating expenses $87.0M or less (from $98.0M); total cash usage $87.0M or less (from $93.0M).",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Ex. 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Company is confident in Proteus commercial launch in Q2 2027, expects the 20th amino acid before year-end, and opened a Proteus pre-order program.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Ex. 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "AI-driven demand has extended lead times for some Proteus components; management does not expect an effect on the Q2 2027 launch.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Ex. 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Interim Proteus data showed a median of 30x more alignments than Platinum Pro from a single chamber and a false discovery rate of 1.36% vs 6.58%.",
      "source": "Quantum-Si press release, World HUPO 2026",
      "as_of": "2026-09-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CEO Jeffrey Hawkins sold 29,852 shares on the open market at an average $0.76 on 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4",
      "as_of": "2026-09-23"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Nasdaq confirmed Quantum-Si regained compliance with the $1.00 minimum bid price requirement.",
      "source": "Quantum-Si press release, Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-10-15"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.2,
              "yoy_pct": -61.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-13",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.3,
              "yoy_pct": -41.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.3,
              "yoy_pct": -69.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.5,
              "yoy_pct": -62.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.6,
              "yoy_pct": -29.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.6,
              "yoy_pct": -5
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 34.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 50
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 28.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 27.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 35.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 59.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -11215.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -7450.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -9322.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -4677.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -7205.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -5096.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -22.3
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -22.3,
          "four_quarters_musd": -85.1
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -80.9
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 4.8
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 149.4
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "none reported"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 149.4,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 0.1,
          "yoy_pct": 4.3
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 0.1
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 1.6
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 160.2
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 251.8
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 102.4,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 81,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 1.6
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 6.03,
      "days_to_cover": 1,
      "change_pct": 11.6
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 39545.08,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 564395.5,
          "sold_usd": 494744.14,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nQuantum-Si's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The Proteus protein sequencer is guided to launch in the second quarter of 2027, and 2026 revenue is guided to about $1.0M, so sales say little until launch. The company's target of detecting all 20 amino acids by year-end 2026 is the next test of the schedule.\n\nThe third-quarter report on 2026-11-05 kept the launch date and the revenue guide. Revenue was $212K, below the $280K analyst estimate and below the $552K of a year earlier. Net loss was $22.3M (Form 8-K, 2026-11-05). The shares closed at $1.17 that day, against $1.29 on 2026-11-04, then recovered to $1.33 on 2026-11-06 and ended at $1.27 on 2026-11-11.\n\nThe report also cut spending. Quantum-Si lowered its 2026 adjusted operating expense guide to $87.0M or less from $98.0M or less, and its total cash usage guide to $87.0M or less from $93.0M or less. Cash and marketable securities were $149.4M on 2026-09-30, which management expects to fund operations into the fourth quarter of 2028.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Chemistry milestones keep arriving.** Quantum-Si reported 19 amino acids detected on 2026-10-08 and, at the 2026-11-05 report, expects the 20th before year-end. The commercial kit needs all 20.\n- **Large gain over the current instrument.** The 2026-09-29 World HUPO (Human Proteome Organization) release reported a median of 30 times more alignments than Platinum Pro from a single chamber. The false discovery rate was 1.36%, against 6.58% for Platinum Pro.\n- **Lower spending extends the runway.** The 2026-11-05 guide cuts 2026 cash usage to $87.0M or less from $93.0M or less. Management kept its runway into the fourth quarter of 2028.\n- **A pre-order program has opened.** Quantum-Si announced it on 2026-11-05 to help customers plan adoption and secure priority access after launch.\n- **Listing risk is cleared for now.** On 2026-10-15 Nasdaq confirmed the company regained compliance with the $1.00 minimum bid price.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The launch has already slipped once.** On 2026-08-13 Quantum-Si moved Proteus to Q2 2027 to add an integrated instrument design cycle. The same release announced a 20% workforce reduction.\n- **Component supply is a new exposure.** The 2026-11-05 release says AI-driven demand has extended lead times for some components. Management says it is ordering early and qualifying second sources, and does not expect an effect on the Q2 2027 launch.\n- **Revenue is shrinking.** Third-quarter 2026 revenue of $212K compares with $552K in the third quarter of 2025 and missed the $280K analyst estimate. Cash and marketable securities fell from $169.9M on 2026-06-30 to $149.4M on 2026-09-30.\n- **19 amino acids is a lab result.** The 2026-09-29 HUPO figures came from an 18-amino-acid developmental kit. The release said the instrument, consumables and software were not fully optimized.\n- **A share-sale program is in place.** Quantum-Si has a $100M at-the-market stock program and a $300M shelf registration filed in 2025. The third-quarter Form 10-Q, filed 2026-11-05, is where any sales and the share count appear.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $1.27 on 2026-11-11. That is 29.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $1.81 set on 2026-10-29. The 52-week closing low is $0.70, on 2026-07-29. The 3-month change is 60.8%, from a close of $0.79 on 2026-08-13.\n\nThe close is above the 50-day average of $1.12 and the 200-day average of $0.96, adjusted daily closes as of 2026-11-11. The $1.00 level is the Nasdaq minimum bid price; a new deficiency notice follows 30 consecutive business days of closing bids below it.\n\nThe shares have swung between $1.17 and $1.37 in the six sessions since 2026-11-04, with no company announcement after the report. Three executives sold small blocks on the open market at $0.76 on 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22, per SEC Form 4 filings, including 29,852 shares by CEO Jeffrey Hawkins.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** Company target for detecting all 20 amino acids. The commercial kit needs all 20. Reaching the target on time after the 19-amino-acid result supports the Q2 2027 launch; missing it points to another slip.\n- **~2027-06-30 (est.):** Proteus commercial launch, guided for Q2 2027. The event the case depends on. It shows whether the interim performance gap over Platinum Pro holds on a full-coverage kit and a manufactured instrument.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $1.49, over the 2026-11-09 close of $1.37, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A result pointing the same way: detection of all 20 amino acids announced before 2026-12-31 with the Q2 2027 launch date intact.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nQuantum-Si trades on its own news flow, not with an index or sector. The 24% jump on 2026-09-29 followed the HUPO data release. Peers in protein analysis and life-science tools, and small-cap healthcare names with high retail attention, are the closest comparison. The sample of moves is too small to measure a stable relationship.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T04:24:41+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}