{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "QTRX",
  "name": "Quanterix Corporation",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QTRX/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QTRX.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Quanterix's third-quarter report beat on revenue but cut the year-end cash forecast to about $70 million and pushed the spatial panels to early 2027, so the shares still lack a result that supports a recovery; the fourth-quarter report settles it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $3.71, the 200-day average of closes (2026-11-11), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-12-31",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "medtech-diagnostics"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Quanterix Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001503274/000150327426000042/ex991-qtrxx20260930.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Quanterix Corp - Form 10-Q - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001503274/000150327426000043/qtrx-20260930.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Finviz",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/410710/quanterix-to-report-third-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-november-9-2026",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 revenue was $34.974 million, up 6.3% from the prior quarter and down about 13% from $40.2 million a year earlier; consensus estimate was $33.853 million.",
      "source": "Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1; Benzinga",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 net loss was $21.6 million, versus $33.5 million a year earlier; EPS was $(0.46) against a $(0.43) estimate.",
      "source": "Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1; Benzinga",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 revenue guidance narrowed to $142–146 million from $142–148 million; adjusted gross margin guidance is 48–50%.",
      "source": "Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash, equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash were $80.7 million at September 30, 2026; year-end 2026 cash forecast is about $70 million, down from about $80 million.",
      "source": "Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Adjusted EBITDA loss was $12.2 million (negative 34.8% margin); GAAP gross margin was 38.6% and adjusted gross margin 47.4%.",
      "source": "Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The TIME tumour-immune panel and high-plex antibody-drug-conjugate panel now ship in early 2027; the 2026-09-25 release had confirmed fourth-quarter 2026 shipment.",
      "source": "Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1; Quanterix press release 2026-09-25",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "TD Cowen maintained its hold rating and raised its price target on Quanterix to $4 from $3.50.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-10",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Florida traditional Medicaid members and state employees gained coverage on 2026-11-01 for qualifying blood-based Alzheimer's biomarker tests, including LucentAD Complete.",
      "source": "Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-01"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Healthcare",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 35,
              "yoy_pct": -13.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 32.9,
              "yoy_pct": 34.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 36.4,
              "yoy_pct": 20.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-02",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 43.9,
              "yoy_pct": 24.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 40.2,
              "yoy_pct": 12.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 24.5,
              "yoy_pct": -28.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 38.6
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-08-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 38.5
            },
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              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 42.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-10",
              "restated": "2026-11-09",
              "pct": 39.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": "2026-08-10",
              "pct": 40.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -64.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -150.2
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -113.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -56.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -92.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -151.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": -21.3
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -21.6,
          "four_quarters_musd": -111.2
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -55.9
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 2.9
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 77.4
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "none reported"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 77.4,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 17.1,
          "yoy_pct": -39.6
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 17.1,
          "yoy_pct": -39.6
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 27.2
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 44.8
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 219.3
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 139.1
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 61.8,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "multiple": 0.4,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "multiple": 0.6
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
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    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 9.85,
      "days_to_cover": 8.4,
      "change_pct": -7.3
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 296049.1,
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nQuanterix's third-quarter report gave the shares a revenue beat but no new proof of a recovery. Management cut its year-end 2026 cash forecast to about $70 million from about $80 million and moved the spatial-biology panels to early 2027. The fourth-quarter report, which tests the narrowed $142–146 million revenue range, settles the case.\n\nThe shares closed at $3.28 on 2026-11-10, according to adjusted daily closes. That is 59.3% below the 52-week high of $8.06 and 14.7% above the level three months earlier. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge, is 62.4.\n\nThe 2026-11-09 report showed revenue of $34.974 million, above the $33.853 million estimate Benzinga cited. Earnings per share were $(0.46), against an estimate of $(0.43). Revenue was up 6.3% from the second quarter and down about 13% from $40.2 million a year earlier.\n\nThe story is well known: the August guidance cut and the October China clearance are both well known, and the November report added a smaller guidance trim and a later panel date rather than a new driver. The view is wrong if fourth-quarter results show revenue above the range and China launch terms.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Revenue beat the estimate.** Third-quarter revenue of $34.974 million exceeded the $33.853 million estimate (Benzinga, 2026-11-09). CEO Everett Cunningham cited sequential improvement across all businesses in the company's release.\n- **Losses narrowed sharply from a year earlier.** The net loss was $21.6 million against $33.5 million in the third quarter of 2025 (8-K, 2026-11-09). Adjusted EBITDA, which strips out non-cash and one-off items, was a loss of $12.2 million.\n- **Margins improved on an adjusted basis.** Adjusted gross margin was 47.4%, up 150 basis points from a year earlier, and 2026 guidance is 48–50% (8-K, 2026-11-09).\n- **An analyst raised its target.** TD Cowen kept its hold rating and raised its price target to $4 from $3.50 on 2026-11-10 (Benzinga). The $3.50 target was set on 2026-10-13.\n- **Clinical access is widening.** China's National Medical Products Administration cleared the HD-X and SR-X instruments and four blood tests on 2026-10-07, sold through partner Innovita. Florida traditional Medicaid and state employee coverage for qualifying Alzheimer's blood tests, including LucentAD Complete, began on 2026-11-01 (8-K, 2026-11-09).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Cash forecast was cut again.** Cash, equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash were $80.7 million at 2026-09-30, and management now expects about $70 million at year-end, down from about $80 million (8-K, 2026-11-09). The company reports no debt.\n- **The top of the revenue range was removed.** Guidance narrowed to $142–146 million from $142–148 million on 2026-11-09. This follows the 2026-08-10 cut from $169–174 million.\n- **Revenue fell from a year earlier.** Third-quarter revenue was about 13% below the $40.2 million of the third quarter of 2025 (8-K, 2026-11-09). Earnings per share missed the $(0.43) estimate.\n- **The spatial panels slipped.** The TIME tumour-immune panel and the high-plex antibody-drug-conjugate panel now ship in early 2027. The 2026-09-25 company release had confirmed fourth-quarter 2026 shipment.\n- **China terms remain undisclosed.** The third-quarter release says Innovita is expanding access in China, but it gives no revenue terms or launch date.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $3.28 on 2026-11-10. The shares closed at $3.12 on 2026-10-28, and have risen about 5% since then. The close sits above Canaccord Genuity's $3.00 target (set 2026-08-17) and the $3.25 consensus target MarketBeat reported on 2026-10-13. It sits below TD Cowen's new $4 target.\n\nThe shares remain well under the 52-week high of $8.06. The 62.4 RSI reading shows recent buying, not an extreme.\n\nCrowding evidence is thin. The report is now out, so no earnings date hangs over the shares. The company news and filings reviewed for this note show no insider sales or share issuance. MarketBeat's October tally showed one sell and two holds among three analysts, which points to little enthusiasm from the sell side.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-31:** Year-end 2026 cash balance against management's forecast of about $70 million. The forecast was cut from about $80 million on 2026-11-09; a lower figure would raise the odds of an equity raise.\n- **~2027-03 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report (date not announced). Tests whether full-year revenue lands inside the $142–146 million range and gives the first update on the early-2027 spatial panel shipments.\n- **~2027-Q1 (est.):** Shipment of the TIME and high-plex antibody-drug-conjugate panels. The spatial-content part of the case rests on these panels; the timing has already slipped once, from fourth quarter 2026.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $3.71, the 200-day average of closes (2026-11-11), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nQuanterix sells research instruments and assays to academic and pharmaceutical labs, so its shares move with life-science tools peers and with sentiment on research budgets. The company said in August that its guidance assumes no improvement in academic or pharmaceutical end markets. Its Alzheimer's blood-test business also depends on payer coverage decisions, such as the Florida Medicaid coverage that began on 2026-11-01. It trades as a small-cap shares story on its own results, and no theme currently carries it.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-11T04:50:42+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-11",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-11",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}