{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "RBRK",
  "name": "Rubrik, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RBRK/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RBRK.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a3",
    "n": 3
  },
  "current_thesis": "Rubrik shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 after the November security-software sell-off, despite 33% subscription ARR growth; the 30 November 2026 fiscal third-quarter report decides whether a guidance raise brings buyers back.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $136.00, just under the $139.92 intraday 52-week high of 2026-10-28, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; so would full-year subscription ARR guidance raised above the $1,885 million top of the current range.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-30",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "cybersecurity"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Rubrik to Report Third Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results on November 30, 2026",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/rubrik-report-third-quarter-fiscal-130000880.html",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Rubrik (NYSE:RBRK) Price Target Raised to $125.00",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-rubrik-nyse-rbrk-price-target-raised-to-12500-2026-11-12/",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "Rubrik raises fiscal 2027 outlook after revenue increases 38%",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/386539/rubrik-raises-fiscal-2027-outlook-after-revenue-increases-38",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "CrowdStrike Stock Plummets on AI Regulation Fears",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/11/62945042/crowdstrike-stock-plummets-on-ai-regulation-fears",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Cybersecurity Stocks Drop After Hours: Here's Why",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62679877/cybersecurity-stocks-drop-after-hours-heres-why",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Rubrik (NYSE:RBRK) Stock Falls 6.5% - Here's What Happened",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-rubrik-nyse-rbrk-stock-falls-65-heres-what-happened-2026-11-02/",
      "date": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "Rubrik falls on strong Q2 performance as value appears mostly priced in: analysts",
      "url": "https://seekingalpha.com/news/4493696-rubrik-falls-on-strong-q2-performance-as-value-appears-mostly-priced-in-analysts",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Subscription ARR of $1.66 billion at July 31, 2026, up 33% year over year; Q2 FY27 revenue of $427.3 million, up 38%",
      "source": "Rubrik Q2 FY27 results release, 2026-08-27",
      "as_of": "2026-07-31"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal 2027 guidance raised to subscription ARR $1,880–$1,885M, revenue $1,685–$1,693M, free cash flow $323–$333M; Q3 revenue guided to $429–$431M",
      "source": "Rubrik Q2 FY27 results release, 2026-08-27",
      "as_of": "2026-08-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Rubrik will report fiscal Q3 2027 results after the market closes on Monday, November 30, 2026, with a call at 5:00 p.m. ET",
      "source": "Rubrik press release, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Mizuho raised its Rubrik price target to $125 from $112 and kept an Outperform rating; MarketBeat consensus target $118.50 from 30 Buy and 1 Sell ratings",
      "source": "MarketBeat, 'Rubrik (NYSE:RBRK) Price Target Raised to $125.00', 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Benzinga tied a fall in CrowdStrike and security peers, Rubrik among them, to post-midterm fears of stricter AI regulation; Rubrik closed down 11.14% at $105.74",
      "source": "Benzinga, 'CrowdStrike Stock Plummets on AI Regulation Fears'",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CTO Arvind Nithrakashyap sold 38,460 Class A shares at $114.17–$122.42 (average $117.39) on November 2–4, 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Morgan Stanley initiated coverage at Overweight with a $155 target on October 29; Wedbush raised its target to $150 from $120 on October 26",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-10-26 and 2026-10-29",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-07-31",
      "figures": {
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              "value_musd": 427.3,
              "yoy_pct": 37.9
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              "value_musd": 387.1,
              "yoy_pct": 39
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              "value_musd": 377.7,
              "yoy_pct": 46.3
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              "restated": null,
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 278.5,
              "yoy_pct": 48.7
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        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "end": "2026-07-31",
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 78.4
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 79.5
            },
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 78.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-09-01",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -16.8
            },
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": -13.6
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              "filed": "2026-03-19",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -21.8
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            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": -21.6
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            {
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              "filed": "2025-09-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -30.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-30",
              "filed": "2025-06-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -33.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-01",
          "value_musd": -56.3
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-01",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": -61.8,
          "four_quarters_musd": -254.4
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-01",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 337.1
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-01",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 33.2
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-01",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 303.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-01",
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          "pct": 5.8
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        "cash": {
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          "value_musd": 1747.6
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          "value_musd": 1132.9,
          "composition": "convertible debt"
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          "value_musd": 614.8
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        "deferred_revenue": {
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          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-01",
          "value_musd": 1929.8,
          "yoy_pct": 21.7
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        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-01",
          "value_musd": 2620,
          "yoy_pct": 29.5
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
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          "filed": "2026-09-01",
          "value_musd": 269.2
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
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          "value_musd": 6.8
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        "equity": {
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          "value_musd": -499.4
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        "market_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-09-01",
          "value_musd": 22645.9
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-01",
          "value_musd": 22031.2
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        "ev_sales": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-09-01",
          "multiple": 14.3
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
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        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
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        "fcf_yield": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-09-01",
          "pct": 1.3
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    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 6.43,
      "days_to_cover": 4.6,
      "change_pct": 1.1
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
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          "sold_usd": 19398417.1,
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          "sold_unpriced": 0
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nRubrik shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The business grew subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) 33% in its last reported quarter, but the shares fell in the November security-software sell-off and have not recovered. The fiscal third-quarter report on November 30, 2026, decides whether another guidance raise brings buyers back.\n\nThe shares closed at $109.26 on November 11, 2026, below the 50-day moving average of $112.92 and 21.9% below the $139.92 intraday 52-week high of October 28. The fall came on November 5, when the shares closed at $105.74, down from $118.99 the day before. Benzinga tied that day's drop in CrowdStrike and its peers, Rubrik among them, to fears of stricter AI regulation after the midterm elections. Rubrik announced on November 11 that it will report after the market closes on Monday, November 30.\n\nThe price already reflects a lot of growth. MarketBeat put Rubrik's market value at $22.66 billion on November 12, 2026, against the company's fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $1,685–$1,693 million and non-GAAP earnings guidance of $0.47–$0.53 per share. The rating is Low because the last beat-and-raise in August was followed by a fall in the shares, and sector news has set their direction since October 28.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Recurring revenue keeps compounding.** Rubrik's August 27, 2026 release reported subscription ARR of $1.66 billion at July 31, up 33% year over year, and quarterly revenue of $427.3 million, up 38%.\n- **Guidance rose on every metric.** On August 27, 2026, the company raised fiscal 2027 guidance to subscription ARR of $1,880–$1,885 million, revenue of $1,685–$1,693 million and free cash flow of $323–$333 million.\n- **Estimates proved far too low last quarter.** MarketBeat recorded second-quarter earnings of $0.20 per share against a $0.04 consensus, and revenue of $427.26 million against $396.30 million.\n- **Analysts keep raising targets.** Mizuho raised its target to $125 from $112 on November 12, 2026, and kept its Outperform rating. Morgan Stanley started coverage at Overweight with a $155 target on October 29, and Wedbush raised its target to $150 from $120 on October 26. MarketBeat's consensus target was $118.50 on November 12, from 30 Buy ratings and one Sell.\n- **Breaches feed demand for recovery products.** Wedbush argued on October 30, 2026 that the Binance and Polymarket breaches favour Rubrik, which sells backup, recovery and data security. On November 10 the company announced expanded cyber recovery for Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Selling has spread across the sector.** Benzinga listed Rubrik down 6.96% after hours on October 28, 2026, after Fortinet cut its full-year service revenue forecast. The shares then closed down 11.14% on November 5.\n- **Policy fear sits outside company control.** Benzinga blamed the November 5 sell-off on concern over AI regulation after the midterms. Rubrik's first chance to answer with its own numbers is the November 30 report.\n- **Beat-and-raise has not been enough.** The shares fell after the August 27, 2026 report even though the company beat estimates and raised its outlook. Seeking Alpha's report on that fall cited analysts saying the value appeared mostly priced in.\n- **The next quarter guides flat.** Rubrik guided third-quarter revenue to $429–$431 million on August 27, 2026, against $427.3 million in the second quarter, and non-GAAP earnings to $0.07–$0.09 per share.\n- **Insiders keep selling under plans.** SEC Form 4 filings show Chief Technology Officer Arvind Nithrakashyap sold 38,460 Class A shares on November 2–4, 2026 at an average of $117.39, after selling the same number on October 5–7 at an average of $124.32. Director John Thompson sold 13,500 shares on November 2 at an average of $117.27. All sales ran under Rule 10b5-1 pre-arranged trading plans.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nAdjusted daily closes show the shares at $118.99 on November 4, $105.74 on November 5 and $105.75 on November 6. They bounced to $111.22 on November 9 and closed at $109.26 on November 11. The three-month change is 4.0%, from a $105.09 close on August 13.\n\nThe 50-day moving average of $112.92 sits just above the last close; a close back over it, and then over the $118.99 close of November 4, would mark a recovery from the November drop. The 200-day moving average of $78.46 sits far below, a record of the rise from the 52-week closing low of $43.81 on April 10, 2026. The $139.92 intraday high of October 28 is the top of the range.\n\nInsiders sold at prices between $114.17 and $122.82 on November 2–4, per SEC Form 4 filings, so plan selling has met the shares in the same range they now need to regain.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-19 (est.):** Palo Alto Networks fiscal Q1 report. Shows whether Fortinet's October 28 forecast cut reflects weaker security budgets across the sector or one vendor's problem, which sets the tone for Rubrik's own report.\n- **2026-11-30:** Rubrik Q3 fiscal 2027 earnings report, after the market close. Shows whether subscription ARR growth holds near 33% and whether full-year ARR guidance rises above $1,885 million, the result that would show the shares able to lead again.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $136.00, just under the $139.92 intraday 52-week high of 2026-10-28, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; so would full-year subscription ARR guidance raised above the $1,885 million top of the current range.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nRubrik trades with high-multiple security and AI software. Benzinga listed it on October 28, 2026 beside SailPoint (down 9.78%), Palo Alto Networks (down 6.66%) and CrowdStrike (down 6.05%) after hours, and again on November 5 beside CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and Palantir. MarketBeat showed a beta, the measure of sensitivity to the broad market, of 1.12 on November 2. Until the November 30 report, peer results are likely to set the direction of the shares; a rise in Rubrik on a day of sector weakness would show that view is wrong.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:08:24+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}