{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "RCKY",
  "name": "Rocky Brands, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RCKY/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RCKY.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Rocky Brands' sales are growing fast, but 2026 profit leans on tariff gains that will not recur, so the shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it; the 2027 guidance due with fourth-quarter results in late February 2027 settles it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $58.18, well over the 52-week high of $55.38, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A 2027 outlook that holds gross margin near 41% and grows adjusted EPS from about $4.00 would also show it.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-27",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "ROCKY BRANDS, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000895456/000143774926033642/ex_1006816.htm",
      "date": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "title": "Rocky Brands (RCKY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.webull.com/news/15823915002245120",
      "date": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "title": "MarketBeat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/transcript-rocky-brands-q3-earnings-call-highlights-2026-10-27/",
      "date": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "title": "Kalkine Media",
      "url": "https://kalkine.com/news/announcements/rocky-brands-q3-2026-net-income-rises-to-128m",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter net sales rose 13.3% to $138.8 million from $122.5 million, with wholesale at $99.6 million and retail at $35.4 million.",
      "source": "Rocky Brands third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter gross margin was 45.0% of net sales, up from 40.2%, including a $2.5 million IEEPA tariff refund benefit.",
      "source": "Rocky Brands third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Free-trade-zone sell-through contributed about $3.5 million to third-quarter gross profit.",
      "source": "Rocky Brands third-quarter 2026 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 guidance is revenue growth of about 10.5%, reported EPS of about $5.30 and adjusted EPS of about $4.00.",
      "source": "Rocky Brands third-quarter 2026 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Management put the 2026 net tariff benefit at roughly $13.5 million and said it will not recur in 2027.",
      "source": "Rocky Brands third-quarter 2026 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Total debt was $116.0 million, down 16.6% from $139.0 million; inventory was $189.7 million; cash was $2.3 million.",
      "source": "Rocky Brands third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter net income was $12.85 million and diluted EPS $1.69 on revenue of $138.81 million.",
      "source": "Rocky Brands Form 10-Q for the period ended 2026-09-30",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Baird rates the shares neutral with a $52 target, raised from $50; BTIG initiated coverage at hold.",
      "source": "Benzinga 2026-10-28; fiscal.ai 2026-10-29",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 138.8,
              "yoy_pct": 13.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 118.4,
              "yoy_pct": 12
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            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 124.4,
              "yoy_pct": 9.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-11",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 139.7,
              "yoy_pct": 9.1
            },
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              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 122.5,
              "yoy_pct": 7
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              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 105.6,
              "yoy_pct": 7.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 45
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 51.4
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 36.5
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 41.3
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 40.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 41
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.1
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 16.6
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            {
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              "filed": "2026-05-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 2.9
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-03-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 9.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 16.4
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 12.8,
          "four_quarters_musd": 34.5
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 35.8
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 7.9
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 27.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 1
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 2.3
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 116,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": -113.7
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 0,
          "yoy_pct": null
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
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        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 97
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        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 189.7
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 276.9
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 391.5
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 505.3
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "multiple": 1
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "multiple": 9.9
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "multiple": 11.3
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "multiple": 1.4
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "pct": 7.1
        }
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    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 2.42,
      "days_to_cover": 4.9,
      "change_pct": -5.3
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
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          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
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          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
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          "sold_unpriced": 0
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          "days": 365,
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  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nRocky Brands' sales are growing fast, but 2026 profit leans on tariff gains that management says will not recur, so the shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The 2027 guidance on the fourth-quarter 2026 earnings call, expected around late February 2027, settles the case.\n\nThe third quarter was a clear beat. The company reported net sales of $138.8 million and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.76 on 2026-10-27, against estimates of $130.1 million and $1.50 cited by Benzinga. Its 10-Q filed 2026-11-03 shows net income of $12.85 million and diluted EPS of $1.69. Management raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to about 10.5% from 8.5%.\n\nThe quality of that profit is mixed. Management expects reported 2026 EPS of about $5.30 and adjusted EPS of about $4.00. It put the 2026 net tariff benefit at roughly $13.5 million and said it will not recur in 2027.\n\nThe market has already paid for the beat. The shares closed at $51.71 on 2026-11-12, 9.2% above their level three months earlier, and sit just under Baird's $52 target.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Broad demand drove the sales beat.** Net sales rose 13.3% in the quarter ended 2026-09-30, with wholesale up 11.8% to $99.6 million and retail up 20.0% to $35.4 million, per the company's 2026-10-27 release. CEO Jason Brooks said Durango, Muck and XTRATUF led several double-digit brand gains.\n- **Underlying margin guidance improved.** On the 2026-10-27 call, management guided to a normalized 2026 gross margin of about 41%, up from about 40%. Adjusted EPS guidance stayed at about $4.00 even though the measure now also excludes the free-trade-zone benefit.\n- **Spring 2027 bookings are up.** Management said on 2026-10-27 that spring bookings are higher, citing XTRATUF's new sandal program, Durango, and the Workhorse Light, Rebel USA and Cattleman styles. It expects operating leverage in 2027 with support from that order book.\n- **Debt and interest costs are falling.** Total debt was $116.0 million on 2026-09-30, down 16.6% from $139.0 million a year earlier, per the company's release. Third-quarter interest expense fell to $2.0 million from $2.6 million, per the call.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Tariff items flattered the reported margin.** Third-quarter gross margin was 45.0%, including a $2.5 million refund under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and about $3.5 million from free-trade-zone sell-through, per the 2026-10-27 release and call. Earnings-call summaries put the margin at 40.7% without those items, against 40.2% a year earlier.\n- **Costs are rising ahead of prices.** Management said on 2026-10-27 that product costs are rising at a mid-single-digit rate on oil, components and inbound freight, and that container pricing worsened during the quarter. Price increases are planned for 2027, with timing tied to tariff developments, and management called 2027 margins \"TBD.\"\n- **The fourth quarter has harder comparisons.** The 2026 guide implies roughly 8% fourth-quarter sales growth, per the 2026-10-27 call. Management expects retail growth to moderate against last year's weather-driven Cyber Week and contract manufacturing to fall by a couple of million dollars as military contracts wind down.\n- **Parts of the portfolio remain soft.** Georgia Boot revenue declined and the Rocky brand grew low single digits in the third quarter, with management describing a cautious field environment on 2026-10-27.\n- **Brokers are neutral.** Baird's target is $52 at neutral, set on 2026-10-28, after it cut to hold with a $50 target on 2026-09-14 per Investing.com's ratings log. BTIG began coverage at hold on 2026-10-28.\n- **Refund cash is still outstanding.** The company reported an $11.2 million other receivables balance on 2026-09-30, primarily the tariff refund receivable, against $2.3 million of cash, per its release.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $51.71 on 2026-11-12. That is 6.6% below the intraday 52-week high of $55.38 reached on 2026-11-05. The closes since then ran $53.65 on 2026-11-09, $53.53 on 2026-11-10, $52.89 on 2026-11-11 and $51.71 on 2026-11-12, so the shares have given back part of the post-earnings gain.\n\nThe 50-day average of adjusted closes is $46.66 and the 200-day average is $41.86, both as of 2026-11-12, and the shares trade above both. The 52-week closing low was $28.67 on 2026-01-02, so the shares have climbed far from last winter's level.\n\nEight directors, including assistant secretary Curtis Loveland, each received a grant of 436 shares on 2026-10-01, per SEC Form 4 filings dated 2026-10-05. These are routine awards, not open-market purchases.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-27:** Black Friday opens the Cyber Week peak e-commerce period. Management flagged a hard comparison for Muck direct-to-consumer sales; the result shapes the roughly 8% implied fourth-quarter sales growth.\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report and first 2027 guidance. It shows what gross margin and earnings look like once the roughly $13.5 million 2026 net tariff benefit drops out.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $58.18, well over the 52-week high of $55.38, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A 2027 outlook that holds gross margin near 41% and grows adjusted EPS from about $4.00 would also show it.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe company's stated earnings drivers are US tariff policy, oil prices, inbound freight and container rates, so those are the outside events most likely to move the case. Management is also investing in raw materials to shorten lead times at its Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico operations and plans new USA-made styles for early 2027, which it presents as ways to adapt its sourcing.\n\nDemand is tied to work, outdoor and western footwear customers. The cautious field environment management described on 2026-10-27 links Georgia Boot in particular to spending by working customers.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T00:28:31+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}