{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "RDAC", "name": "Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RDAC/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RDAC.json", "status": "DORMANT", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a6", "n": 6 }, "current_thesis": "Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp., a blank-check company with no operating business, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its HZJL merger ended on 30 October 2026 and no new target is named. The 15 November 2026 extension deadline and any new merger agreement settle it.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $13.58, which would show the shares trading well above their trust value on a new deal and leading the S&P 500. A signed merger agreement with a new target would point the same way.", "catalyst_date": "2026-11-15", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "m-and-a-special-situations" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp. - Form 8-K", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002018145/000121390026115158/ea0310535-8k_rising.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp. and HZJL Cayman Limited Announce Mutual Termination of Merger Agreement", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/rising-dragon-acquisition-corp-hzjl-110000562.html", "date": null }, { "title": "Why Is Penny Stock Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp. (RDAC) Up 117% Today?", "url": "https://www.tipranks.com/news/why-is-penny-stock-rising-dragon-acquisition-corp-rdac-up-117-today", "date": null }, { "title": "Boardroom Alpha", "url": "https://www.boardroomalpha.com/sec/rdac-def-14a-2026-05-08-0001213900-26-053863", "date": "2026-05-08" }, { "title": "Rising Dragon stock skyrockets on SPAC extension proposal", "url": "https://stockti.com/rising-dragon-stock-skyrockets-on-spac-extension-proposal", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Rising Dragon and HZJL Cayman Limited mutually terminated their 2025-01-27 merger agreement effective 2026-10-30, with no termination fee payable by either party.", "source": "Rising Dragon Form 8-K and company release, 2026-11-03", "as_of": "2026-10-30" }, { "claim": "The company issued two unsecured promissory notes totalling $55,637.41 to fund the trust account and extend its business-combination deadline to 2026-11-15.", "source": "Company announcement, 2026-10-30", "as_of": "2026-10-30" }, { "claim": "Net income was $0.1 million in the quarter to 2026-09-30 and $0.6 million over four quarters; cash and short-term investments were $0.0 million and equity was −$3.4 million (−$1.00 a share).", "source": "Rising Dragon 10-Q filed 2026-11-12", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "1,685,982 ordinary shares were subject to possible redemption at $10.90 per share at 2026-06-30, after 2,515,673 shares were redeemed at about $10.83 on 2026-05-29 and 2026-06-03; the trust held $18.37 million.", "source": "Rising Dragon 10-Q for the quarter to 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-07", "as_of": "2026-06-30" }, { "claim": "Nasdaq notified the company that the market value of its listed securities was below the $35 million minimum under Rule 5550(b)(2); it has until 2027-02-16 to close at or above $35 million for 10 consecutive business days.", "source": "Rising Dragon Form 8-K, Item 3.01, filed 2026-08-20", "as_of": "2026-08-19" }, { "claim": "The May 2026 proxy proposed up to 15 one-month extensions of the deadline, to 2027-10-15, with sponsor deposits into the trust for each month.", "source": "DEF 14A filed 2026-05-08", "as_of": "2026-05-08" }, { "claim": "The shares rose 117.5% in premarket trading on 2026-11-03, the day the merger termination was announced.", "source": "TipRanks, 2026-11-03", "as_of": "2026-11-03" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": { "as_of": "2026-11-14", "business": "Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp. is a Cayman Islands blank-check company based in Taiyuan, China. It raised $57.5 million in its October 2024 IPO and holds the money in a trust account while it looks for a merger target. It reports no revenue.", "change": { "now": "The company and HZJL Cayman Limited mutually ended their 2025-01-27 merger agreement effective 2026-10-30, with no termination fee; the company announced it on 2026-11-03 (8-K).", "next": "The 10-Q filed 2026-11-12 shows cash of $0.0 million, equity of −$3.4 million and net income of $0.1 million for the quarter to 2026-09-30. Sponsor notes fund the monthly extensions.", "linked": "HZJL Cayman Limited, the former target, has no US-listed ticker. The company names no replacement target, so no customer, supplier or competitor can be tied to it." }, "priced_in": "At the 2026-11-13 close (filed inputs to 2026-11-12) the shares trade at a P/E of 59.2, with market value $38 million, enterprise value $38 million, P/B not meaningful and EV/sales not available. That rests on a new deal or a trust payout, not on earnings: net income was $0.6 million over the four quarters to 2026-09-30.", "links": { "customers": [], "suppliers": [], "competitors": [] } }, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Financial Services", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "not reported" }, "gross_margin": { "status": "not reported" }, "operating_margin": { "status": "not available" }, "pretax_income": { "status": "not reported" }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 0.1, "four_quarters_musd": 0.6 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": -0.8 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "not reported" }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "not available" }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "not reported" }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 0 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-03-30", "value_musd": 0.1, "composition": "notes" }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": -0.1 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "not reported" }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "not reported" }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": -3.4 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-11", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 38.1 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-11", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 38.2 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "not available" }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not available" }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-11", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "multiple": 59.2 }, "pb": { "status": "not meaningful" }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "not available" } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 0.72, "days_to_cover": 2.6, "change_pct": -25.3 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 0, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 0, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nRising Dragon Acquisition Corp. is a blank-check company with no operating business, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months than to lead it. Its only merger ended on 2026-10-30, no replacement target is named, and the shares closed at $11.10 on 2026-11-13, above the $10.90 per-share trust value reported at 2026-06-30. The extension deadline on 2026-11-15 and any new merger agreement settle the case.\n\nThe mutual termination of the agreement with HZJL Cayman Limited, announced 2026-11-03, carried no termination fee for either side, according to the company's 8-K. The company said it will keep looking for a target. Its current deadline of 2026-11-15 was set by promissory notes totalling $55,637.41, issued on 2026-10-30 to fund the trust.\n\nThe 10-Q filed 2026-11-12 shows cash and short-term investments of $0.0 million at 2026-09-30, equity of −$3.4 million, and net income of $0.1 million for the quarter. Revenue is not reported. The shares closed between $11.10 and $11.22 on each of the six sessions from 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-13, a narrow range after the jump on the termination news.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Trust value anchors the shares.** The 10-Q for the quarter to 2026-06-30 lists 1,685,982 public shares subject to possible redemption at $10.90 each. Monthly deposits of $0.033 a share and trust interest have added to that figure since.\n- **The sponsor keeps paying to extend.** On 2026-10-30, after the merger had ended, the company issued $55,637.41 of promissory notes to fund the trust and move the deadline to 2026-11-15. Funding an extension after a collapsed deal is consistent with a sponsor still seeking a new target.\n- **Deadline room runs to late 2027.** The May 2026 proxy (DEF 14A filed 2026-05-08) proposed up to 15 monthly extensions, to 2027-10-15. That leaves time to sign a new target if each deposit is made.\n- **Deal news has moved the shares sharply.** The shares reached an intraday high of $23.99 on 2026-04-29, the day after the extension proxy was filed. TipRanks reported a 117.5% premarket jump on 2026-11-03, the day the termination was announced.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Little room above trust value.** The $11.10 close on 2026-11-13 sits above the $10.90 redemption value of 2026-06-30. A liquidation pays out about the trust value, so the shares have little to gain without a new deal.\n- **The trust floor has ** The shares closed at $4.56 on 2026-08-31, the 52-week closing low, well below the $10.90 per-share trust value reported at 2026-06-30. The current price near the trust value is a recent development, and the 50-day average close is $6.40.\n- **No target is named.** The 2026-11-03 termination release gives no reason for the break-up and names no replacement. A new target needs due diligence, a signed agreement and a proxy.\n- **The Nasdaq listing is at risk.** Nasdaq notified the company on 2026-08-19 that the market value of its listed securities was below the $35 million minimum (Rule 5550(b)(2)). It must close at or above $35 million for 10 consecutive business days by 2027-02-16 or face a delisting notice (8-K, 2026-08-20).\n- **The balance sheet is empty outside the trust.** The 10-Q filed 2026-11-12 shows cash of $0.0 million and equity of −$3.4 million at 2026-09-30. Operating cash flow was −$0.8 million over the four quarters to that date, so sponsor loans cover running costs and extensions.\n- **The public float is small.** Holders redeemed 2,515,673 shares on 2026-05-29 and 2026-06-03, leaving 1,685,982 public shares at 2026-06-30 (10-Q). A float this small can produce large moves on little volume in either direction.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe last close was $11.10 on 2026-11-13. That is 53.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $23.99 set on 2026-04-29, and 91.0% above the $5.81 close of 2026-08-17, the three-month reference date. The 50-day average close is $6.40 and the 200-day average close is $6.39, both far below the price, because the shares only reached this range in November.\n\nThe level the case turns on is the $10.90 per-share trust value at 2026-06-30, which monthly deposits have raised since. A close below the current trust value per share would show the market pricing a liquidation or doubting the full payout.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-15:** Current business-combination deadline; another monthly extension deposit is required to continue. Funding the extension keeps the search for a new target alive. A failure to fund it points to liquidation at about the trust value.\n- **~2026-12-15 (est.):** Next monthly extension date, if the November extension is funded. A second extension after the termination would show the sponsor is still pursuing a deal.\n- **2027-02-16:** End of Nasdaq's 180-day period to regain the $35 million minimum market value of listed securities. Without a deal that lifts the company's market value, Nasdaq staff will issue a delisting notice.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $13.58, which would show the shares trading well above their trust value on a new deal and leading the S&P 500. A signed merger agreement with a new target would point the same way.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nRDAC trades on its own trust and deal news. It has no operating peers, and no current group of stocks moves with it. The shares have no meaningful link to the S&P 500. A broad market rally does not lift them, and a liquidation would leave them lagging the index, while a new merger agreement could send them sharply higher.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-14T08:31:22+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-14", "date_modified": "2026-11-14", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }