{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ROG",
  "name": "Rogers Corporation",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ROG/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ROG.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Rogers Corporation's engineered-materials recovery is real, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the fourth-quarter guide steps down and data-center revenue is not expected before the second half of 2027.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $160.00, which would put the shares well above their recent range and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter 2026 net sales above the $225 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Rogers (NYSE:ROG) Stock Price Target Lowered at B. Riley Financial",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-rogers-nyse-rog-stock-price-target-lowered-at-b-riley-financial-2026-11-09/",
      "date": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "Rogers (ROG) Stock Historical Prices",
      "url": "https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/rog/historical-prices",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "MarketBeat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/transcript-rogers-q3-earnings-call-highlights-2026-10-27/",
      "date": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "title": "Rogers Corp (ROG) Stock Price, Quote, News & History",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ROG",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $236.1 million, up 9.3% year on year; adjusted EPS were $1.39 against $0.90 a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA rose 28% to $47.7 million.",
      "source": "Rogers Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter gross margin was 34.2% versus 33.5% a year earlier; cash was $206.1 million and share repurchases were $9.3 million in the quarter.",
      "source": "Rogers Q3 2026 results release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: net sales $215–225 million, gross margin 32.5%–33.5%, adjusted EPS $0.90–1.10.",
      "source": "Rogers Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.39 beat the $1.19 estimate and sales of $236.1 million missed the $238 million estimate; fourth-quarter estimates were $0.90 EPS and $218.9 million of sales.",
      "source": "Benzinga",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Freedom Capital Markets maintained Buy and raised its price target to $190.",
      "source": "Benzinga analyst ratings",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "B. Riley Securities maintained Buy and lowered its price target to $180 from $195.",
      "source": "MarketBeat, 2026-11-09 B. Riley note",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Shares closed at $115.74 on 2026-11-05, down 10.07% from $128.70 the prior session, on 297,007 shares traded.",
      "source": "TipRanks historical prices",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2030 targets: revenue $1.5 billion, 26% adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted EPS $14.00; 2028 targets: revenue $1.0–1.1 billion, adjusted EPS $5.50–6.50.",
      "source": "Rogers investor day press release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Basic Materials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 236.1,
              "yoy_pct": 9.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 216.8,
              "yoy_pct": 6.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 200.5,
              "yoy_pct": 5.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-19",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 201.5,
              "yoy_pct": 4.8
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-10-30",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 216,
              "yoy_pct": 2.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-01",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 202.8,
              "yoy_pct": -5.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 34.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 32.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 32.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-19",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 31.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 33.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-01",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 31.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 12.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 9.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-19",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 3.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 7.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-01",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -33.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 31
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 22.6,
          "four_quarters_musd": 45.3
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 118.5
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 21.5
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 97
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": -1.1
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 236.4
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 155.4
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 130.6
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 1222.1
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 2235.6
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 49.4
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 1.8
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "pct": 4.3
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 3.18,
      "days_to_cover": 2.4,
      "change_pct": 12.7
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 1594215.15,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nRogers Corporation's engineered-materials business is recovering, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter guide steps down from the third quarter, and management does not expect data-center revenue before the second half of 2027. The fourth-quarter report in early 2027 settles whether the core recovery holds.\n\nThe company reported third-quarter 2026 net sales of $236.1 million on 2026-10-27, up 9.3% year on year, inside the guided $233–243 million but under the $238 million consensus estimate (Benzinga). Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.39 against a $1.19 consensus estimate.\n\nThe shares closed at $130.89 on 2026-11-11, 22.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $169.00 set on 2026-06-22 and 5.0% lower over three months. That price already reflects a profit beat that did not lift the stock and an analyst target cut: B. Riley lowered its target to $180 from $195 on 2026-11-09.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Profit beat the guided range.** Adjusted EPS were $1.39 against $0.90 a year earlier, and GAAP diluted EPS were $1.26 on net income of $22.6 million (company 8-K, 2026-10-27).\n- **Margins reached a multi-year high.** Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose 28% to $47.7 million, a 20.2% margin the company called its highest since 2021. Gross margin was 34.2%, up from 33.5% a year earlier (results release, 2026-10-27).\n- **Fourth-quarter guidance topped consensus on earnings.** Rogers guided sales to $215–225 million and adjusted EPS to $0.90–1.10, against estimates of $218.9 million and $0.90 (Benzinga, 2026-10-27). Fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS were $0.89.\n- **The balance sheet is liquid.** Cash was $206.1 million and short-term investments $30.3 million at quarter end, and the company repurchased $9.3 million of stock in the quarter (results release, 2026-10-27).\n- **Analysts still rate it Buy.** Freedom Capital Markets maintained Buy and raised its target to $190 on 2026-10-28 (Benzinga). B. Riley kept its Buy and set a $180 target on 2026-11-09 (MarketBeat).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Fourth-quarter sales step down.** The $215–225 million guide sits below the $236.1 million reported for the third quarter, and the guided gross margin of 32.5%–33.5% is under the 34.2% just delivered (company 8-K, 2026-10-27).\n- **Third-quarter sales missed the consensus.** Reported sales of $236.1 million fell short of the $238 million estimate (Benzinga, 2026-10-27), and raw-material costs partly offset the margin gain, according to the results release.\n- **A sharp drop followed the report.** The shares closed at $115.74 on 2026-11-05, down 10.07% from $128.70 the session before, on 297,007 shares traded (TipRanks historical prices). No company announcement or SEC filing that explains the move appears in company news or the filing list.\n- **Analyst targets are drifting lower.** B. Riley cut its target to $180 from $195 on 2026-11-09, and had set $225 on 2026-10-01, within days of the investor day.\n- **The big growth is years away.** Management expects data-center revenue to begin in the second half of 2027 (2026-09-30 investor day), and the 2030 plan needs more than $450 million of sales from newer markets. No named data-center program had been announced as of the 2026-10-27 report.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $130.89 on 2026-11-11, below the 50-day average of $136.18 and above the 200-day average of $128.94 (adjusted daily closes). The 3-month reference close was $137.71 on 2026-08-13.\n\nRecent closes show a sharp drop and partial recovery: $128.70 on 2026-11-04, $115.74 on 2026-11-05, $121.96 on 2026-11-06, $128.48 on 2026-11-09, $128.28 on 2026-11-10 and $130.89 on 2026-11-11. The 52-week closing low is $75.56 on 2025-11-20, and the 52-week intraday high is $169.00 on 2026-06-22.\n\nThe shares trade between the 200-day average and the 50-day average. Neither the 2026-11-05 low close nor the 52-week high is near the last close, so the three-month call turns on the fourth-quarter guide rather than on a chart level.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Tests the guided $215–225 million of sales and $0.90–1.10 adjusted EPS, and shows whether gross margin holds inside the 32.5%–33.5% guide.\n- **~2027-03-31 (est.):** Management's window for first data-center design wins, about two quarters after the 2026-09-30 investor day. A named data-center program would be the first hard evidence for the more than $450 million new-market sales target in the 2030 plan.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $160.00, which would put the shares well above their recent range and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter 2026 net sales above the $225 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nRogers sells engineered materials into electric vehicles, industrial equipment, electronics and, later, data centers. Its sales follow industrial and auto production cycles more than software or chip-design spending.\n\nThe shares rose 10.73% on the 2026-09-30 investor day and gave the whole move back by 2026-10-30. The further 10% single-day fall on 2026-11-05 came with no company disclosure, which points to company-specific repricing rather than a broad sector move.\n\nRogers Corporation (NYSE: ROG) is a different company from Rogers Communications (NYSE: RCI). Search results and earnings calendars mix the two.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:14:21+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}