{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "RRC", "name": "Range Resources Corp", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RRC/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RRC.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a5", "n": 5 }, "current_thesis": "Range Resources is likely to lag the S&P 500 because its shares now trade as 0.987 EQT shares under EQT's all-stock takeover, with the premium priced in; EQT's share price, gas prices and the shareholder votes before a first-quarter 2027 closing settle it.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $56.38, the closing high of 2026-10-27 after the deal announcement, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a rival bid for Range above EQT's 0.987-share terms would also prove the call wrong.", "catalyst_date": null, "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "m-and-a-special-situations", "oil-energy-geopolitical" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "Range Resources agrees to all-stock merger with EQT", "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/RRC/8-k-range-resources-corp-reports-material-event-9fcbb3745aa0.html", "date": null }, { "title": "A $1.15B breakup fee could apply to EQT (EQT) in its agreed Range Resources merger.", "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/EQT/425-eqt-corp-business-combination-communication-61be0dadd08f.html", "date": null }, { "title": "RANGE RESOURCES CORP - Form 425 - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000315852/000121390026112513/ea0309614-425_eqtcorp.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "EQT, Range combine to create largest U.S. natural gas producer", "url": "https://worldoil.com/news/2026/10/26/eqt-range-combine-to-create-largest-u-s-natural-gas-producer", "date": "2026-10-26" } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "EQT agreed to acquire Range Resources in an all-stock deal at 0.987 EQT shares per Range share; Range holders would own about 27% of the combined company.", "source": "EQT Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-10-26" }, { "claim": "The deal terms valued Range at about $54.91 per share, a 20.6% premium to the prior Friday close; EQT shares fell about 8% on the announcement.", "source": "TIKR / RTTNews coverage of the announcement", "as_of": "2026-10-26" }, { "claim": "Termination fees are $423 million payable by Range and $1.148 billion payable by EQT; the end date is 2027-10-25, extendable to 2028-04-25.", "source": "Range Resources Form 8-K", "as_of": "2026-10-26" }, { "claim": "EQT guides to $325 million of base annual synergies within two years, with a path to more than $600 million, and expects closing in the first quarter of 2027.", "source": "EQT Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-10-26" }, { "claim": "Range quarterly revenue was $842.83 million for the quarter ended 2026-09-30, against $748.53 million a year earlier; adjusted EPS of $0.81 beat a $0.77 estimate.", "source": "Range Q3 2026 Form 10-Q and results release", "as_of": "2026-10-27" }, { "claim": "Mizuho kept an Outperform rating on Range and raised its price target to $67.", "source": "Mizuho note via Benzinga", "as_of": "2026-10-27" }, { "claim": "Truist Securities kept a Hold rating on Range and raised its price target to $51.", "source": "Truist note via Benzinga", "as_of": "2026-11-02" }, { "claim": "Law firm Halper Sadeh LLC opened an investigation into whether the sale of Range to EQT is fair to Range shareholders.", "source": "Halper Sadeh release via fiscal.ai", "as_of": "2026-10-30" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Energy", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "restated": null, "value_musd": 842.8, "yoy_pct": 12.6 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-21", "restated": null, "value_musd": 833.6, "yoy_pct": -2.7 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-21", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1034.2, "yoy_pct": 49.8 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-24", "restated": null, "value_musd": 820.2, "yoy_pct": 30.9 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-28", "restated": null, "value_musd": 748.5, "yoy_pct": 21.7 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-22", "restated": null, "value_musd": 856.3, "yoy_pct": 61.5 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "restated": null, "pct": 94.3 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-21", "restated": null, "pct": 92.9 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-21", "restated": null, "pct": 94.4 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-24", "restated": null, "pct": 94.7 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-28", "restated": null, "pct": 93.5 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-22", "restated": null, "pct": 95.9 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "restated": null, "pct": 26.6 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-21", "restated": null, "pct": 29.8 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-21", "restated": null, "pct": 41.9 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-24", "restated": null, "pct": 28.8 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-28", "restated": null, "pct": 24.5 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-22", "restated": null, "pct": 35.3 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "not reported" }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 175.3, "four_quarters_musd": 891.4 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 1419.3 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "not reported" }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "not available" }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": -1.7 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 0 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 780.9, "composition": "long-term debt" }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": -780.9 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "not reported" }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 302.3 }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 4872 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-23", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 12112.2 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-23", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 12893.1 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-23", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "multiple": 3.7 }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-23", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "multiple": 11.3 }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-23", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "multiple": 13.6 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-23", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "multiple": 2.5 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "not available" } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 11.24, "days_to_cover": 10.1, "change_pct": 0.3 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 0, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 4229389.28, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nRange Resources is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to lead it. Its shares now trade as a stand-in for EQT stock under EQT's all-stock takeover. The premium is already in the price, so EQT's share price, natural gas prices and the two shareholder votes before a first-quarter 2027 closing decide the result.\n\nUnder the merger agreement announced on 2026-10-26, each Range share becomes 0.987 EQT shares at closing (EQT 8-K, 2026-10-26). TIKR put the value of the terms at about $54.91 per Range share at announcement. Range closed at $51.86 on 2026-11-11, below that figure, because EQT shares have not recovered the roughly 8% they lost on announcement day, as TIKR reported.\n\nThe only new analyst action since the 2026-10-27 results is Truist's. It kept a Hold rating and raised its target to $51 on 2026-11-02, below the 2026-11-11 close. The Form S-4 registration statement that sets the shareholder vote dates had not appeared in public sources by 2026-11-12. The rating is Low because the takeover terms cap the upside, and a lead over the index would need a rival bid or a sharp rise in EQT that no dated evidence points to.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **EQT has a costly reason to close.** EQT owes Range a $1.148 billion termination fee in specified cases, against $423 million Range would owe EQT (Range 8-K, 2026-10-26). That gap ties EQT to completing the deal.\n- **The deal value rises with EQT.** Each Range share converts into 0.987 EQT shares (EQT 8-K, 2026-10-26). A recovery in EQT shares after their roughly 8% fall on 2026-10-26, per TIKR, would lift Range with it.\n- **The synergy targets are large.** EQT guides to $325 million of base annual synergies within two years of closing, with a path to more than $600 million (EQT 8-K, 2026-10-26).\n- **The last standalone quarter was strong.** Range's 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30, filed 2026-10-27, shows revenue of $842.83 million against $748.53 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.81 beat the $0.77 estimate, per Benzinga on 2026-10-27.\n- **One analyst sees value above the terms.** Mizuho kept an Outperform rating and raised its target to $67 on 2026-10-27, per Benzinga.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The premium has been paid.** RTTNews put Range's close before the announcement at $45.52; the shares jumped about 15% on 2026-10-26, per Benzinga. Truist's $51 target of 2026-11-02 sits below the 2026-11-11 close of $51.86.\n- **Standalone value is lower.** The pre-deal close of $45.52 reported by RTTNews marks roughly where a broken deal would point the shares. The termination fee Range would owe is $423 million (Range 8-K, 2026-10-26).\n- **EQT holders must approve the share issue.** The issuance needs a majority of votes cast at an EQT meeting (Range 8-K, 2026-10-26). EQT's roughly 8% drop on announcement day, per TIKR, shows that approval is not assured.\n- **Closing can run long.** The agreement's end date is 2027-10-25, extendable to 2028-04-25 if only antitrust clearance or an injunction is outstanding (Range 8-K, 2026-10-26). Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) antitrust clearance and an effective Form S-4 are both conditions.\n- **A fairness challenge is open.** Law firm Halper Sadeh LLC announced an investigation on 2026-10-30 into whether the sale to EQT is fair to Range shareholders. Such claims can delay a shareholder vote.\n- **Gas prices drive both stocks.** The combined company would produce more than 9 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d) (EQT 8-K, 2026-10-26). A weak winter gas price would hit EQT and Range together.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nRange closed at $51.86 on 2026-11-11, 8.9% under the 52-week intraday high of $56.90 set on 2026-10-28. Since the announcement the shares have held a range of $48.72 (close on 2026-11-06) to $52.10 (close on 2026-11-04) in November, according to daily closes. The 52-week closing low was $33.43 on 2026-01-14.\n\nAdjusted daily closes put the shares up 30.3% over three months, with the 50-day moving average at $43.76 and the 200-day at $40.91 as of 2026-11-11. Nearly all of that gain is the takeover jump of 2026-10-26. From here the price tracks 0.987 times EQT's share price, less a discount for deal risk and time to closing, more than any Range-specific chart level.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-19 (est.):** Weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration natural gas storage report. Early-winter storage changes drive Henry Hub prices, which move EQT shares and therefore Range through the 0.987 exchange ratio.\n- **~2026-12-15 (est.):** EQT Form S-4 with joint proxy statement and prospectus filed with the SEC. It sets the timing of the Range and EQT shareholder votes the deal needs, and discloses the deal background and any other bidders' approaches.\n- **~2026-12-15 (est.):** Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust filings and waiting period. Clearance is a closing condition; a second request from regulators would push closing past the first-quarter 2027 target.\n- **~2027-03-31 (est.):** Closing of the EQT–Range merger (company target: first quarter of 2027). Closing turns Range shares into EQT stock; a delay or failure would leave Range valued on its own, nearer its pre-deal close of $45.52.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $56.38, the closing high of 2026-10-27 after the deal announcement, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a rival bid for Range above EQT's 0.987-share terms would also prove the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nRange now moves with EQT at the 0.987 exchange ratio, so the two shares carry nearly the same risk. Both track Henry Hub natural gas futures and Appalachian price differentials. The gap between Range's price and 0.987 times EQT's price measures how much risk the market assigns to the votes, antitrust review and the litigation; a widening gap would signal rising doubt about closing.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T15:56:55+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }