{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "RSKD",
  "name": "Riskified Ltd.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RSKD/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RSKD.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Riskified's third-quarter beat and third guidance raise make its shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500: revenue rose 41% to $115.2 million and 2026 guidance rose to $427–433 million. Gross margin, down to 43% from 50%, and the fourth-quarter report decide whether the growth holds.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $8.48, the 2026-11-10 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the whole post-results gain; or a cut to the $427–433 million 2026 revenue guidance.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "fintech-consumer-credit"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Riskified Reports Strong Third Quarter of 2026 with Accelerating Revenue and Gross Profit Growth",
      "url": "https://ir.riskified.com/news-releases/news-release-details/riskified-reports-strong-third-quarter-2026-accelerating-revenue",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Riskified Reports Strong Third Quarter of 2026 with Accelerating Revenue and Gross Profit Growth",
      "url": "https://www.quantisnow.com/insight/riskified-reports-strong-third-quarter-of-2026-with-accelerating-revenue-6785107",
      "date": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "title": "Riskified (RSKD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/11/riskified-rskd-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "title": "Riskified (NYSE:RSKD) Q3 Beat and Raised Outlook Send Shares Up 24.6% Premarket",
      "url": "https://www.chartmill.com/news/RSKD/Chartmill-58521-Riskified-NYSERSKD-Q3-Beat-and-Raised-Outlook-Send-Shares-Up-246-Premarket",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "RISKIFIED LTD. - Form 6-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001851112/000162828026055937/exhibit991-q22026.htm",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $115.2 million, up 41% year over year, against about 27% growth guided by management and 22% growth in the second quarter.",
      "source": "Riskified Q3 2026 results release, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter GAAP gross profit was $49.3 million, up 20% from $41.1 million; GAAP gross margin was 43%, against 50% a year earlier.",
      "source": "Riskified Q3 2026 results release, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 revenue guidance was raised to $427–433 million from $400–410 million, and expected full-year gross profit growth to 14–16%.",
      "source": "Riskified Q3 2026 results release and earnings call, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Adjusted EBITDA was $8.1 million, up 47%, and free cash flow was a record $15.2 million in the third quarter.",
      "source": "Riskified Q3 2026 results release, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Adjusted EPS of $0.07 beat the $0.03 estimate, and revenue beat the $103.41 million consensus.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Non-GAAP operating expenses were $41.6 million, or 36% of revenue, against 44% a year earlier.",
      "source": "Riskified Q3 2026 earnings call, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash, deposits and investments were about $235 million at quarter end, with no debt.",
      "source": "Riskified Q3 2026 results release, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Ravi Kumaraswami, president of worldwide field operations, sold 65,000 shares at $8.36 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-15",
      "as_of": "2026-10-15"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [
    {
      "date": "2026-11-12",
      "at": "2026-11-12T07:57:00Z",
      "from": "LOW",
      "to": "MEDIUM",
      "kind": "results",
      "fact_date": "2026-11-11",
      "fact": "Riskified reported third-quarter revenue of $115.2 million, up 41%, with gross profit up 20%, and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $427–433 million from $400–410 million."
    }
  ],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "not available",
      "reason": "no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F)",
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": null,
      "figures": {}
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": null,
      "days_to_cover": 1,
      "change_pct": -1.6
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 13366488.41,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 45167746.39,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nRiskified's shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. On 2026-11-11 the company reported third-quarter revenue up 41% and raised its 2026 revenue guidance for the third time this year. Two things decide whether the gain holds: whether gross margin stops falling, and whether the fourth-quarter report confirms the new $427–433 million revenue range.\n\nThe rating is Medium because the 2026-11-11 report answered the main objection to the shares. Gross profit growth sped up to 20% in the third quarter from 13% in the second, so the extra revenue now adds profit. The weak point is margin. GAAP gross margin fell to 43%, from 50% a year earlier and 46% in the second quarter.\n\nThe price already reflects a large part of this. The shares closed at $10.37 on 2026-11-11, up 60.8% over three months on adjusted daily closes and at the top of their 52-week range.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Revenue growth nearly doubled.** Third-quarter revenue was $115.2 million, up 41% year over year, according to the company's 2026-11-11 release. Growth was 22% in the second quarter, and management had guided to about 27%. Revenue beat the $103.41 million consensus, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.07 beat the $0.03 estimate, Benzinga reported on 2026-11-11.\n- **Gross profit growth accelerated.** GAAP gross profit rose 20% to $49.3 million in the third quarter, after 13% growth to $45.0 million in the second. The company raised its expected full-year gross profit growth to 14–16%.\n- **Guidance raised a third time.** On 2026-11-11 Riskified lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $427–433 million from $400–410 million. That range had itself been raised from $376–384 million on 2026-08-12.\n- **Operating leverage and cash generation.** Non-GAAP operating expenses were $41.6 million, or 36% of revenue, against 44% a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) rose 47% to $8.1 million, and free cash flow was a record $15.2 million.\n- **Net cash and no debt.** Cash, deposits and investments were about $235 million at the end of the third quarter, with no debt, according to the 2026-11-11 release.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Gross margin keeps falling.** GAAP gross margin was 43% in the third quarter, against 50% a year earlier and 46% in the second quarter of 2026. The company attributed the decline to newly onboarded merchants. Revenue still grows about twice as fast as gross profit.\n- **Part of the growth may not repeat.** The 2026-11-11 results release tied Digital Finance billings growth largely to a ramp of new merchants. A one-time onboarding wave would slow growth when it laps.\n- **Still loss-making under GAAP.** The third-quarter GAAP net loss was $0.01 per share, per the 2026-11-11 release, even as adjusted EBITDA rose.\n- **Insiders sold into the rally.** SEC Form 4 filings show Ravi Kumaraswami, president of worldwide field operations, sold 65,000 shares at $8.36 on 2026-10-15 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Director Erez Shachar sold 94,431 shares at an average $6.23 on 2026-09-14 and 2026-09-15 and another 50,000 at $6.26 on 2026-09-16. Chief technology officer Avi Shauli sold 20,000 at $6.24 on 2026-09-16.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $10.37 on 2026-11-11, the session of the third-quarter report. Closes from 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-10 ranged from $8.31 to $8.81. The intraday 52-week high of $11.13 was set the same day, and the last close sits 6.8% below it, so the shares gave back part of the session's peak.\n\nOn adjusted daily closes as of 2026-11-11, the 50-day moving average is $7.84 and the 200-day moving average is $5.57. The last close is well above both. The 52-week closing low is $3.79, on 2026-03-27. The 3-month reference close is $6.45 on 2026-08-13, the session after the second-quarter report.\n\nThe gap between the last close and the 50-day average measures how much of the move came in one session. A close back inside the pre-report range of 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-10 would mean the market had rejected the raised outlook.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12 (month):** Limited enterprise beta of Agent Identity Risk Intelligence for AI shopping assistants. This is the first merchant test of the AI-agent product. General availability is expected in 2027, so it carries no 2026 revenue.\n- **~2027-02 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results; the company has not announced the date. Shows whether 2026 revenue lands inside the $427–433 million range and whether GAAP gross margin holds at or above the third quarter's 43%.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $8.48, the 2026-11-10 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the whole post-results gain; or a cut to the $427–433 million 2026 revenue guidance.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- New merchants keep pulling gross margin down, so revenue growth adds less and less profit. Confirmed by: Fourth-quarter GAAP gross margin below the third quarter's 43%, or full-year gross profit growth below the 14–16% range.\n- The third-quarter surge came from a one-time merchant onboarding ramp that does not repeat. Confirmed by: Fourth-quarter revenue growth falling back toward the second quarter's 22%, or 2027 guidance implying a sharp slowdown.\n- The share price has run ahead of analyst valuations after the 2026-11-11 move. Confirmed by: Analyst price targets revised after the third-quarter report staying below the 2026-11-11 close of $10.37.\n- Insiders keep selling into strength after the report. Confirmed by: SEC Form 4 filings showing further open-market sales by the chief executive, chief financial officer or directors in November or December 2026.\n- Weaker holiday e-commerce volumes cut transaction-based revenue. Confirmed by: Online retailers or payment companies reporting soft November–December 2026 order volumes.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nRiskified earns transaction-based revenue on the online orders it screens for merchants, so the shares carry exposure to e-commerce volumes and the November–December holiday season. The 2026-11-11 move was company-specific: a beat and a guidance raise. Benzinga's 2026-11-11 list of big movers put Riskified alongside CoreWeave and Micron, which rose on their own news. The December 2026 limited beta of Agent Identity Risk Intelligence, announced on 2026-10-08, links the shares to AI shopping assistants. General availability is expected in 2027, so the product carries no 2026 revenue.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T07:57:11+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}