{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "RXRX",
  "name": "Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RXRX/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RXRX.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Recursion Pharmaceuticals' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: cash runs into 2029 and REC-4881 data held up, but every dated next step sits in 2027. An FDA agreement on the registrational trial settles the case.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $4.35, which is above the 50-day average of $3.79 and would show the shares leading the S&P 500. An announced FDA agreement on the REC-4881 registrational trial design would also show the shares leading.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "precision-biotech-therapeutics"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Recursion (RXRX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/03/recursion-rxrx-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "RXRX Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Clinical Progress and Cash Runway",
      "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:19de0a2f9094b:0-rxrx-q3-earnings-call-highlights-clinical-progress-and-cash-runway/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. - Form 424B5 - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001601830/000160183026000134/rxrx-finalprosuppxoct2026o.htm",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $18.6 million, up from $5.2 million a year earlier; net loss was $119 million versus $162.3 million.",
      "source": "Recursion Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, The Motley Fool",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Pro forma cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were about $748.7 million at September 30, 2026, including $187.2 million of net offering proceeds; runway guided into 2029.",
      "source": "Recursion Q3 2026 earnings call; Zacks call summary via TradingView",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash operating expense guidance is under $375 million for 2026, down from $390 million, and under $360 million for 2027.",
      "source": "Recursion Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, The Motley Fool",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "REC-4881 TUPELO: 13 of 15 patients (87%) reduced total polyp burden at week 12, median 47%; 11 of 13 (85%) stayed below baseline about 12 weeks off treatment.",
      "source": "Recursion Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, The Motley Fool",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "REC-4881 safety at 4 mg once daily: 21 of 26 patients had grade 1 or 2 treatment-related events, four had grade 3, none had grade 4 or 5; four discontinued.",
      "source": "Recursion Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, The Motley Fool",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "REC-1245: disease control of 91.7% (11 of 12) at 45 mg or higher; 45 mg once daily selected for expansion, preliminary endometrial results expected in the second half of 2027.",
      "source": "Recursion Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, The Motley Fool",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Recursion offered 61,540,000 Class A shares at $3.25 per share for about $200 million in gross proceeds.",
      "source": "Recursion 424B5 final prospectus supplement; Benzinga",
      "as_of": "2026-10-15"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Director Blake Borgeson sold 40,000 shares at $3.88 on 2026-11-03 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Healthcare",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
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          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "filed": "2026-11-02",
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              "value_musd": 18.6,
              "yoy_pct": 258.5
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              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 7.7,
              "yoy_pct": -60.1
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              "yoy_pct": -56.1
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              "yoy_pct": 681.7
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              "yoy_pct": -80.2
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              "value_musd": 19.2,
              "yoy_pct": 33.3
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        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 45.9
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          "status": "ok",
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": -663.9
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              "pct": -304.8
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": -916.8
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        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-02",
          "value_musd": -119
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-02",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -119,
          "four_quarters_musd": -475.7
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        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-02",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -310.5
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-02",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 2
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-02",
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          "value_musd": -312.5
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-02",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 21.5
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        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-02",
          "value_musd": 549.9
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        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-02",
          "value_musd": 11.9,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt and finance leases plus current maturities"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-02",
          "value_musd": 538
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        "deferred_revenue": {
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          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-02",
          "value_musd": 135.8,
          "yoy_pct": -14.3
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        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "not reported"
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        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
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          "value_musd": 905.8
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        "market_value": {
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          "basis_filed": "2026-11-02",
          "value_musd": 1983.5
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "value_musd": 1445.5
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        "ev_sales": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-02",
          "multiple": 21.2
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
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        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
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        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-02",
          "multiple": 2.2
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          "pct": -15.8
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    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 26,
      "days_to_cover": 4.4,
      "change_pct": 2.5
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
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          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nRecursion Pharmaceuticals' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to lead it over the next three months. The company is funded into 2029 and its REC-4881 polyposis data held up at the 2026-11-03 earnings call, but management's dated next steps all fall in the second half of 2027. An FDA agreement on the registrational trial design is what settles the case.\n\nThird-quarter results were reported on 2026-11-02. Revenue was $18.6 million against $5.2 million a year earlier, the net loss narrowed to $119 million from $162.3 million, and 2026 cash operating expense guidance fell to under $375 million from $390 million, per the 2026-11-03 earnings call.\n\nThe market has already paid for the data: the shares closed at $3.59 on 2026-11-11, above the $3.25 price of the 2026-10-15 stock offering and 31.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $5.24 set on 2026-01-22.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **REC-4881 responses lasted off treatment.** About 12 weeks after treatment ended, 11 of 13 patients (85%) stayed below baseline polyp burden, per the 2026-11-03 call. At week 12 on treatment, 13 of 15 patients (87%) had reductions, with a median of 47%.\n- **Safety update added no discontinuations.** Among 26 safety-evaluable patients at 4 mg once daily, none had a grade 4 or 5 treatment-related event, per the 2026-11-03 call. Discontinuations stayed at four.\n- **Funding and costs both improved.** Pro forma cash, equivalents and restricted cash were about $748.7 million at 2026-09-30, including $187.2 million of net offering proceeds, with runway guided into 2029. Management guided 2027 cash operating expense to under $360 million, per the 2026-11-03 call.\n- **Revenue grew from a small base.** Third-quarter revenue of $18.6 million compared with $5.2 million a year earlier. Benzinga reported 2026-11-02 earnings per share of $(0.22), in line with estimates.\n- **New chair has large-company pharmaceutical experience.** Fred Hassan, former chairman and chief executive of Schering-Plough and Pharmacia, became non-executive chair effective 2026-10-31, per the company's 2026-11-02 announcement.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **No dated readout before 2027.** On the 2026-11-03 call, management targeted the REC-4881 registrational start for the second half of 2027, pending regulatory alignment. Preliminary REC-1245 endometrial results are also timed for the second half of 2027. Sanofi's newly optioned immunology candidate could enter Phase 1 trials in 2027, per the company's 2026-10-15 announcement.\n- **The REC-4881 trial is small.** Benzinga described TUPELO on 2026-11-02 as a 15-patient, single-arm Phase 2 trial. The sample is too small to settle the drug's effect, and the registrational design remains under FDA discussion.\n- **Side effects remain open.** Of 26 safety-evaluable patients, 21 had grade 1 or 2 treatment-related events and four had grade 3 events, per the 2026-11-03 call. Four patients discontinued treatment.\n- **Revenue depends on partner milestones.** The company announced a $10 million Sanofi milestone on 2026-10-15, within the quarter that produced the revenue gain. Second-quarter revenue was $7.7 million, per the 2026-08-05 release, so quarterly revenue can swing sharply.\n- **REC-1245 has a narrow dose range.** Three of four patients at 65 mg had dose-limiting toxicities, and 45 mg once daily was chosen for expansion, per the 2026-11-03 call.\n- **Dilution and insider sales.** The company sold 61,540,000 Class A shares at $3.25 on 2026-10-15 for about $200 million gross, per the 424B5 prospectus supplement. Director Blake Borgeson sold 40,000 shares at $3.88 on 2026-11-03 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, per a Form 4 filed 2026-11-04.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $3.59 on 2026-11-11. That is below the 50-day average of $3.79 and above the 200-day average of $3.49, and up 8.5% over three months from the $3.31 close of 2026-08-13. The 52-week closing low is $2.84 on 2026-03-30.\n\nDaily closes since the report have been uneven: $3.88 on 2026-11-04, $3.50 on 2026-11-05, $3.52 on 2026-11-06, $3.81 on 2026-11-09, $3.55 on 2026-11-10. The shares have moved in a band between roughly $3.50 and $3.90 for the week, with the 200-day average and the $3.25 offering price below and the 50-day average above.\n\nCompany news in that period was limited. A Salt Lake City life-sciences hub item named Recursion as a participant on 2026-11-05, and the company announced its participation in upcoming investor conferences on 2026-11-11.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** Update on FDA discussions about the REC-4881 registrational trial design. It shows how long and costly registration would be and whether the second-half 2027 start target holds. The 2026-11-03 call gave no date.\n- **~2027-12-31 (est.):** REC-4881 registrational start and preliminary REC-1245 endometrial results, both targeted for the second half of 2027. These are the next clinical steps management has timed, and they show whether the early results carry into larger groups of patients.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $4.35, which is above the 50-day average of $3.79 and would show the shares leading the S&P 500. An announced FDA agreement on the REC-4881 registrational trial design would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe recent swings have been company-specific. The drop from a $3.88 close on 2026-11-04 to $3.50 on 2026-11-05 and the rebound to $3.81 on 2026-11-09 came without clinical or financial news from Recursion. With no catalyst dated before 2027, the shares have little company-specific event risk to trade on and have tracked sentiment around the 2026-10-15 offering price and the 50-day average.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:28:08+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}