{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "RYZ",
  "name": "Ryerson Holding Corporation",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RYZ/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RYZ.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Ryerson Holding's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months despite an Olympic Steel merger running ahead of plan, because the 5 November 2026 fall is unexplained and fourth-quarter earnings are guided lower. The report expected around 25 February 2027 settles whether the merger gains hold.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $35.03, over the $33.72 52-week high of 2026-11-02, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a raised fourth-quarter outlook would also prove this call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "cyclical-industrials"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Ryerson Holding Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001481582/000119312526436183/ryz-ex99_1.htm",
      "date": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "title": "Ryerson Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ryerson-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-302922709.html",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Ryerson Holding Corporation Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fourth Quarter of 2026",
      "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ryerson-holding-corporation-provides-earnings-guidance-for-the-fourth-quarter-of-2026-ce785cd3da8cff20",
      "date": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "title": "Edward J. Lehner's Ryerson (RYZ) sale notice lists 15,603 and 6,365 shares dated November 4.",
      "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/RYZ/144-ryerson-holding-corp-sec-filing-8e6586c4b49a.html",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Ryerson (NYSE:RYZ) Stock: Insider Andrew Greiff Sells 3,000 Shares",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/insider-ryerson-nyse-ryz-stock-insider-andrew-greiff-sells-3000-shares-2026-11-06/",
      "date": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "title": "Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYZ) Stock Price, News, Quote & History",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RYZ/",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "CEO Edward J. Lehner sold 21,968 shares in the open market at $31.22 on 2026-11-04.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "EVP Andrew S. Greiff sold 3,000 shares in the open market at $32.10 on 2026-11-04.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-06",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "BMO Capital analyst Katja Jancic maintained a Hold rating and raised the price target to $33.",
      "source": "fiscal.ai news",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter revenue was $2,177.8 million, up 87.5% year over year; adjusted EPS was $0.61 against a $0.41 consensus.",
      "source": "Ryerson Q3 2026 earnings release; Benzinga",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO was $115.0 million against $88–$92 million guidance; synergies reached a ~$52 million annualized run rate against a $40 million first-year target.",
      "source": "Ryerson Q3 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter guidance: shipments down 6%–8% from Q3, sales $1.96–$2.04 billion, adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO $100–$104 million, EPS $0.30–$0.38.",
      "source": "Ryerson Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Net debt was $965.6 million, 3.2 times trailing adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO, down from 4.0 times in Q2; third-quarter operating cash flow was negative $18.2 million.",
      "source": "Ryerson Q3 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 2177.8,
              "yoy_pct": 87.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 2006.2,
              "yoy_pct": 71.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1566.5,
              "yoy_pct": 37.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1104.8,
              "yoy_pct": 9.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1161.5,
              "yoy_pct": 3.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1169.3,
              "yoy_pct": -4.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 18.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 15.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 2.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 1.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 1.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -3.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -0.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 0.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 36.4
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 32,
          "four_quarters_musd": 14.1
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 70.6
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 63.7
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 40.5
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 1006.1
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": -965.6
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 19.4,
          "yoy_pct": 14.8
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 1017.5
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 1302.6
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 1312.6
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 1506.3
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 2471.9
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 0.4
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 34.7
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 106.8
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 1.1
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 2.96,
      "days_to_cover": 4,
      "change_pct": 23.2
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 782140.96,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 3243457.36,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nRyerson's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, even though its merger with Olympic Steel is running ahead of plan. Three things weigh on the shares. The 16.18% fall of 2026-11-05 still has no stated cause. Two officers sold stock the session before it. The company also guides fourth-quarter earnings below the third quarter. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 2027-02-25, will show whether the merger gains hold.\n\nMost of the fall has since been recovered. The shares closed at $30.46 on 2026-11-11, against $26.58 on 2026-11-05 and $31.71 on 2026-11-04. No company release, 8-K or share offering explaining the fall had surfaced by 2026-11-12. Company news carried a \"Ryerson Provides Fourth Quarter 2026 Outlook\" headline on 2026-11-11. No figures were found that differ from the ranges in the company's 2026-10-28 results release.\n\nThe rating is Low because no new operating fact explains the rebound. The weaker parts of the case are still ahead: lower fourth-quarter volume, negative operating cash flow and a Hold rating from the one firm with a recent target. The 2026-11-11 close is 9.7% below the $33.72 52-week high of 2026-11-02, so the price already reflects most of the third-quarter beat.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Synergies are running ahead of target.** Ryerson realized about $13 million of merger savings in the third quarter. That is a $52 million annualized run rate against a $40 million first-year target (company release, 2026-10-28). Management guides $14 million to $15 million of fourth-quarter savings and keeps its $120 million two-year run-rate target.\n- **Results beat the company's own guidance.** Third-quarter revenue was $2,177.8 million, up 87.5% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) excluding LIFO (last-in, first-out inventory accounting) was $115.0 million, against guidance of $88 million to $92 million (company release, 2026-10-28).\n- **Fourth-quarter guidance is far above estimates.** The company guided GAAP earnings per share (EPS) to $0.30–$0.38, against a $0.09 consensus. It guided sales to $1.96–$2.04 billion, against $1.816 billion (Benzinga, 2026-10-28).\n- **Olympic Steel is beating its own plan.** The acquired business contributed $30.2 million of adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO in the third quarter, against management's expectation of $21 million to $23 million (company release, 2026-10-28). The fourth-quarter guide includes $28 million to $30 million from Olympic Steel.\n- **Leverage fell quickly.** Net debt to trailing adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO fell to 3.2 times at 2026-09-30, from 4.0 times at mid-year. Liquidity rose to $865 million from $757 million (company release, 2026-10-28).\n- **Buyers returned within four sessions.** The shares closed at $29.78 on 2026-11-09 and $30.46 on 2026-11-11, above both the 50-day and 200-day averages (adjusted daily closes).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The largest one-day fall has no explanation.** On 2026-11-05 the shares traded between $32.37 and $26.43 and closed at $26.58, on 1,012,980 shares against a 499,228 average (Yahoo Finance). No company statement on the move had appeared by 2026-11-12.\n- **Two officers sold the day before.** Chief executive Edward Lehner sold 21,968 shares at $31.22 on 2026-11-04. Executive vice president Andrew Greiff sold 3,000 shares at $32.10 the same day (SEC Form 4 filings, 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-06). Director Michael Siegal reported a gift of 25,000 shares on 2026-11-05 (SEC Form 4, 2026-11-06).\n- **Fourth-quarter volume steps down.** Ryerson guides shipments down 6% to 8% from the third quarter, citing three fewer business days and holiday softness. Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO is guided to $100–$104 million, below the $115.0 million just reported (company release, 2026-10-28).\n- **Cash flow went the wrong way.** Operating cash flow was negative $18.2 million in the third quarter as working capital absorbed cash (company release, 2026-10-28). Net debt was $965.6 million on 2026-09-30, so further debt reduction depends on that reversing.\n- **Earnings swing with metal prices.** The average selling price rose 7.2% from the prior quarter to $2,675 per ton. The company guides $28–$32 million of fourth-quarter LIFO expense, with softer stainless and aluminum prices only partly offset by carbon steel (company release, 2026-10-28).\n- **The one recent target is a Hold.** BMO Capital analyst Katja Jancic kept a Hold rating on 2026-11-03 while raising her target to $33 (fiscal.ai). The 2026-11-11 close of $30.46 is already close to that target.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe quoted close was $31.71 on 2026-11-04 and $26.58 on 2026-11-05. The shares then closed at $27.60 on 2026-11-06, $29.78 on 2026-11-09, $30.10 on 2026-11-10 and $30.46 on 2026-11-11. The 52-week intraday high is $33.72, set on 2026-11-02, and the 52-week closing low is $19.86 on 2025-11-17.\n\nOn adjusted daily closes, the 50-day average is $26.79 and the 200-day average is $26.21, both as of 2026-11-11. The shares are up 6.3% over three months. The nearest reference below the market is the $26.43 session low of 2026-11-05 (Yahoo Finance), which sits just above the 50-day average. Above, the $33.72 high of 2026-11-02 is the level a recovery would have to clear.\n\nSell-side coverage is thin, the fall came on about twice average volume, and no earnings report is due before late February 2027. That leaves the shares exposed to flows and filings rather than results until then.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-03:** Record and ex-dividend date for the $0.1875 quarterly dividend, payable 2026-12-17. Shows the dividend is maintained while the company pays down debt after the merger.\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO met the $100–$104 million guidance, whether synergies reached $14–$15 million, and whether operating cash flow turned positive.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $35.03, over the $33.72 52-week high of 2026-11-02, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a raised fourth-quarter outlook would also prove this call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nRyerson's earnings follow metal prices and industrial shipment volumes, as the third-quarter gain in price per ton and the LIFO guidance show (company release, 2026-10-28). Net debt of $965.6 million at 2026-09-30 adds sensitivity to the industrial cycle. Results now include Olympic Steel, so year-over-year growth is a poor comparison with peers until early 2027. Trade press searches found no sector-wide steel event around 2026-11-05. The fall reads as specific to Ryerson until a cause is published.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:09:36+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}