{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "SEI",
  "name": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SEI/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SEI.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: it beat third-quarter guidance, raised its ranges and signed a 900-megawatt contract. Fourth-quarter results, expected about 24 February 2027, test the $165–185 million range.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $52.00, which would erase the rebound that followed the November 4 results and the run of analyst target raises. A fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA result below $165 million, or a cut to the $220–260 million first-quarter 2027 range, would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "industrial-power-grid",
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "SEC EDGAR",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001697500/000162828026070286/sei-ex99x9302026.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure Raises 2026 and Initiates First Quarter 2027 Guidance",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/389360/solaris-energy-infrastructure-raises-2026-and-initiates-first-quarter-2027-guidance",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue $341.1 million; total adjusted EBITDA $136.1 million versus the $110–130 million guided range; Power Solutions adjusted EBITDA $127.0 million, up 32% from the second quarter.",
      "source": "Company Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $165–185 million from $145–180 million; first-quarter 2027 range raised to $220–260 million from $200–240 million.",
      "source": "Company Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Signed a 15-year power contract for about 900 megawatts with an existing investment-grade customer; deployments begin in the first half of 2027.",
      "source": "Company Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Average capacity earning revenue about 820 megawatts in the third quarter, down 14% from about 950 megawatts in the second quarter; long-term contracted capacity 3.2 gigawatts.",
      "source": "Company Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter capital expenditure $547.2 million; debt attributable to Solaris $2.40 billion; cash attributable to Solaris $493.2 million; $850 million revolver undrawn.",
      "source": "Company Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Needham raised its Solaris price target to $126 from $104 (Buy); Citi raised its target to $104 (Buy); Piper Sandler raised its target to $85 (Overweight).",
      "source": "Benzinga headlines, 2026-11-09 to 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Director A. J. Teague bought 670 shares at an average $60.77 on 2026-11-09 to 2026-11-11.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
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          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "filed": "2026-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 341.1,
              "yoy_pct": 104.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 219.4,
              "yoy_pct": 46.9
            },
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              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 196.2,
              "yoy_pct": 55.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-27",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 179.7,
              "yoy_pct": 86.6
            },
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              "end": "2025-09-30",
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 166.8,
              "yoy_pct": 122.4
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              "filed": "2025-08-01",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 149.3,
              "yoy_pct": 102.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 19.6
            },
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 25.8
            },
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 25.8
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 22.7
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              "filed": "2025-08-01",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 23.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 49.1
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 34.6,
          "four_quarters_musd": 74.9
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 573.9
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 1636.9
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -1062.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 399.5
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 1715.9,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": -1316.4
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 87,
          "yoy_pct": null
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 284.2
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 52.2
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 1274.6
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": null,
      "days_to_cover": 5.7,
      "change_pct": 1.3
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 541711,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
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          "bought_usd": 1341602.31,
          "sold_usd": 300579703.75,
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nSolaris Energy Infrastructure is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company beat its third-quarter guidance, raised its next two quarters and signed its largest power contract. The fourth-quarter report, expected about 2027-02-24, shows whether adjusted earnings land in the new $165–185 million range and whether the megawatts earning revenue rise from the third-quarter level of about 820.\n\nThe company reported on 2026-11-04 that third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $136.1 million, above the $110–130 million range it had guided. Revenue was $341.1 million. The shares closed at $50.55 on 2026-11-05 and at $64.50 on 2026-11-12, after Citi, Piper Sandler, Needham and Northland Securities adjusted their targets between 2026-11-09 and 2026-11-11.\n\nThe market has recovered most of the post-report drop but not the summer level. The 2026-11-12 close sits 25.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $86.19 set on 2026-06-18. The three-month price change is 2.1%.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Third quarter beat the guided range.** Adjusted EBITDA was $136.1 million against guidance of $110–130 million, per the company's 2026-11-04 results release filed with the SEC. The Power Solutions segment earned $127.0 million, up 32% from the second quarter.\n- **Guidance was raised again.** Fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance moved to $165–185 million from $145–180 million. First-quarter 2027 moved to $220–260 million from $200–240 million, per the same release.\n- **A 900-megawatt contract was signed.** On 2026-10-29 the company signed a 15-year power contract for about 900 megawatts with an existing investment-grade customer. Deployments start in the first half of 2027, per the company's release.\n- **Contracted capacity is large.** Long-term contracted capacity is 3.2 gigawatts, per the 2026-11-04 release.\n- **Analysts raised targets after the report.** Needham maintained Buy and raised its target to $126 from $104 on 2026-11-11. Citi maintained Buy and raised its target to $104 on 2026-11-09. Piper Sandler maintained Overweight and raised its target to $85 on 2026-11-09, per Benzinga headlines.\n- **A director bought shares in the open market.** Director A. J. Teague bought 670 shares at an average $60.77 between 2026-11-09 and 2026-11-11, per an SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-12. He also bought 7,800 shares at an average $64.23 on 2026-09-08.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Revenue-earning capacity fell.** Average capacity earning revenue was about 820 megawatts in the third quarter, down 14% from about 950 megawatts in the second, as temporary third-party generation was released, per the 2026-11-04 release.\n- **Capital spending and debt are heavy.** Third-quarter capital expenditure was $547.2 million. Debt attributable to the company was $2.40 billion against $493.2 million of cash, per the same release. The $850 million revolver was undrawn.\n- **Targets are far apart.** Wells Fargo maintained Overweight but lowered its target to $65 on 2026-11-06, per Benzinga, against Needham's $126 on 2026-11-11. The 2026-11-12 close of $64.50 is near the low end of that range.\n- **The shares did not hold the report-day reaction.** The close fell to $50.55 on 2026-11-05, the session after a quarter that beat guidance. The recovery to $64.50 by 2026-11-12 came in six sessions, so the price has moved sharply in both directions.\n- **Two businesses are mixed in the totals.** The oilfield logistics segment produced $56.9 million of third-quarter revenue, so reported totals combine data-center power with oilfield activity.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe last close is $64.50 (2026-11-12). It is above the 200-day average of $63.62 and below the 50-day average of $66.73, both from adjusted daily closes. The close of $63.30 on 2026-08-14 is the three-month reference point.\n\nThe shares closed at $61.87 on 2026-11-10 and $64.80 on 2026-11-11. The 52-week closing low is $40.64, set on 2025-12-17. The 52-week intraday high is $86.19 from 2026-06-18.\n\nThe Form 10-Q for the third quarter was filed with the SEC on 2026-11-06. The only insider purchases among recent Form 4 filings are Teague's on 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-09 to 2026-11-11. The other filings since mid-August are routine director share awards dated 2026-08-23.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02-24 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, based on the 2026-02-24 date of the prior-year report. Tests whether adjusted EBITDA lands in the $165–185 million guided range and whether average revenue-earning megawatts rise from about 820.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $52.00, which would erase the rebound that followed the November 4 results and the run of analyst target raises. A fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA result below $165 million, or a cut to the $220–260 million first-quarter 2027 range, would also break the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Fourth-quarter earnings fall short of the raised $165–185 million range as temporary capacity is released and new capacity is delayed. Confirmed by: Fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA below $165 million, or average revenue-earning megawatts staying near or below 820.\n- Heavy debt-funded capital spending raises fixed costs before new capacity earns revenue. Confirmed by: Rising interest expense in quarterly filings without matching growth in Power Solutions revenue.\n- Further equity issuance dilutes shareholders while expansion continues. Confirmed by: A new share offering or stock-funded acquisition announced before the fourth-quarter report.\n- AI data-center power stocks and long-term yields pull the shares down regardless of company results. Confirmed by: Renewed declines in other AI data-center power stocks alongside rising long-term Treasury yields.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe Power Solutions business serves technology-company customers building data centers, so the shares are exposed to hyperscaler capital spending news and to long-term interest rates, which raise the cost of the company's debt-funded expansion. The oilfield logistics segment adds a smaller link to oilfield activity.\n\nSolaris has Class A and Class B shares, which affects share counts and earnings per share.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T00:30:10+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}