{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "SOFI", "name": "SoFi Technologies, Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SOFI/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SOFI.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a6", "n": 6 }, "current_thesis": "SoFi Technologies' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 after a hot October inflation report made a December Fed hike near-certain, despite a 2027 outlook above consensus. The 9 December 2026 Fed decision and the fourth-quarter report settle it.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $17.37, the 200-day moving average as of 2026-11-12, which would show the shares recovering despite expectations of a December hike. A 2027 outlook raised above about $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue would also show the shares leading.", "catalyst_date": "2026-12-09", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "fintech-consumer-credit" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "CPI comes in hot, raising odds of a bigger-than-expected December rate hike", "url": "https://www.investmentnews.com/equities/october-cpi-comes-in-hot-raising-odds-of-a-bigger-than-expected-rate-hike/268961", "date": "2026-11-10" }, { "title": "SoFi Technologies, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001818874/000181887426000070/sofi-20260930.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "SOFI Stock Slips As Analyst Slashes Price Target To $15", "url": "https://www.timothysykes.com/news/sofi-technologies-inc-sofi-news-2026_11_05-2/", "date": null }, { "title": "SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) Stock Jumps 3.6% on Analyst Upgrade", "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-sofi-technologies-nasdaq-sofi-stock-jumps-36-on-analyst-upgrade-2026-11-04/", "date": "2026-11-04" }, { "title": "SoFi Stock Is Down 50% From Its High. Here's Why I'd Buy It Right Now", "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/06/sofi-stock-is-down-50-from-its-high-here-s-why-i-d-buy-it-right-now/", "date": "2026-11-06" } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 adjusted net revenue was $1.371 billion, up 44% year on year; GAAP net income was $241.0 million and diluted EPS $0.18 versus $0.11 a year earlier.", "source": "SoFi Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K)", "as_of": "2026-10-27" }, { "claim": "2027 outlook: about $6.4 billion adjusted net revenue, $2.24 billion adjusted EBITDA, $0.90 adjusted EPS, versus consensus of $5.991 billion and $0.81.", "source": "SoFi Q3 2026 release; Benzinga", "as_of": "2026-10-27" }, { "claim": "Personal-loan net charge-off ratio was 2.26% versus 2.60% a year earlier; net charge-offs were $174.0 million versus $137.3 million on average balances of $30.613 billion versus $20.964 billion.", "source": "SoFi Q3 2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-11-05", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "Personal-loan charge-off rate was about 3.4% with late-stage delinquent loan sales added back, 30 basis points better than the prior quarter.", "source": "SoFi Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K)", "as_of": "2026-10-27" }, { "claim": "October 2026 CPI rose 0.4% month on month (0.3% expected) and core CPI 0.3% (0.2% expected).", "source": "InvestmentNews, 2026-11-10", "as_of": "2026-11-10" }, { "claim": "After the October CPI release, CME FedWatch priced an 84.7% chance of a quarter-point December hike and 15.3% for a half point, up from 1.4% that morning.", "source": "InvestmentNews, 2026-11-10", "as_of": "2026-11-10" }, { "claim": "Scotiabank reaffirmed its Buy rating and $26 price target on SoFi Technologies.", "source": "fiscal.ai, 2026-11-09", "as_of": "2026-11-09" }, { "claim": "Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut its target to $15 from $16 (Underperform); Truist raised its target to $17 from $16 (Hold) on 2026-11-03; MarketBeat's consensus is Hold with a $21.27 average target.", "source": "Timothy Sykes news; Benzinga; MarketBeat", "as_of": "2026-11-05" } ], "view_changes": [ { "date": "2026-11-12", "at": "2026-11-12T23:08:00Z", "from": "MEDIUM", "to": "LOW", "kind": "industry_data", "fact_date": "2026-11-10", "fact": "October consumer prices rose 0.4% and core prices 0.3% month on month, above the 0.3% and 0.2% expected, and CME FedWatch then priced a 15.3% chance of a half-point December Fed hike alongside 84.7% for a quarter point." } ], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Financial Services", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "restated": null, "value_musd": 163.4, "yoy_pct": 4.2 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-06", "restated": null, "value_musd": 153.6, "yoy_pct": 1.1 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-07", "restated": null, "value_musd": 129.5, "yoy_pct": -7.7 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-17", "restated": null, "value_musd": 170.3, "yoy_pct": 25.7 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-06", "restated": null, "value_musd": 156.8, "yoy_pct": 19.5 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-07", "restated": null, "value_musd": 151.9, "yoy_pct": 25.8 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "restated": null, "pct": -28.4 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-06", "restated": null, "pct": -30.3 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-07", "restated": null, "pct": -32.1 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-17", "restated": null, "pct": 5.1 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-06", "restated": null, "pct": -3 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-07", "restated": null, "pct": 1 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "not reported" }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 317.8 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 241, "four_quarters_musd": 737.9 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": -10208.8 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-06", "first_end": "2025-09-30", "value_musd": 290.5 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners" }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": 5.2 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 2809.6 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 3862.9 }, "net_cash": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 7.1, "yoy_pct": -17.8 }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "not reported" }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 11295.1 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-30", "basis_filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 20012.7 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "ev_sales": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-30", "basis_filed": "2026-11-05", "multiple": 27.1 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-30", "basis_filed": "2026-11-05", "multiple": 1.8 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners" } }, "financial_balance_sheet": { "kind": "bank" } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 16.92, "days_to_cover": 4.8, "change_pct": 2.2 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 852631.66, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 2455976.22, "sold_usd": 11691736.01, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nSoFi Technologies' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. A hotter October inflation report on 2026-11-10 made a December Federal Reserve rate hike close to certain and opened the door to a half-point move. SoFi trades as a lender that is sensitive to interest rates. The Fed decision on 2026-12-09 and the fourth-quarter report, expected around late January 2027, will settle the call.\n\nThe business case still holds. SoFi's 2027 outlook calls for about $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue. On 2026-10-27, Benzinga put consensus at $5.991 billion. The third-quarter 10-Q, filed 2026-11-05, shows lower reported personal-loan charge-offs. The rating is Low because the rate outlook got worse on 2026-11-10, and the shares fell after that report even though SoFi published no news of substance.\n\nThe October consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month on month against 0.3% expected. Core prices rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected, InvestmentNews reported on 2026-11-10. After the release, CME FedWatch put the chance of a quarter-point December hike at 84.7% and of a half-point hike at 15.3%, up from 1.4% that morning. The shares closed at $16.75 on 2026-11-09, the session before the report, and at $15.63 on 2026-11-12. SoFi's only announcement in that span was a golf-league sponsorship on 2026-11-11.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Revenue growth sped up again.** Adjusted net revenue rose 44% year on year to $1.371 billion in the third quarter of 2026, after 40% growth in the second quarter. Benzinga put consensus at $1.256 billion (SoFi 8-K, 2026-10-27).\n- **2027 outlook is above estimates.** SoFi guides 2027 to about $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue, $2.24 billion of adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and $0.90 of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). Benzinga put consensus at $5.991 billion and $0.81 on 2026-10-27.\n- **Profit grew faster than revenue.** Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $469.8 million, up 70% from $276.9 million a year earlier. Net income under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $241.0 million, or $0.18 per diluted share against $0.11 (2026-10-27 release).\n- **Loan-sale-adjusted credit also improved.** With sales of late-stage delinquent loans added back, the personal-loan charge-off rate was about 3.4%. The company said that was 30 basis points better than the second quarter (2026-10-27 release).\n- **Deposits fund growth without new stock.** The 10-Q shows deposits of $51.325 billion at 2026-09-30, against $37.505 billion at 2025-12-31. Its equity statement shows 3,209,206 shares issued in the first nine months of 2026, against 82,733,817 in the same period of 2025.\n- **The top analyst targets sit well above the price.** Scotiabank reaffirmed its Buy rating and $26 target on 2026-11-09, according to fiscal.ai. StoneX raised its target to $27 with a Buy rating on 2026-10-28 (Benzinga).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Inflation beat forecasts for a second month.** October CPI rose 0.4% at the headline level and 0.3% at the core level, against forecasts of 0.3% and 0.2% (InvestmentNews, 2026-11-10). On 2026-10-14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026.\n- **Markets fully expect a December hike.** After the October report, CME FedWatch put the chance of a quarter-point hike on 2026-12-09 at 84.7% and of a half-point hike at 15.3% (InvestmentNews, 2026-11-10). Higher rates raise SoFi's deposit costs and can reduce outside demand for its loans.\n- **Balance growth flatters the charge-off ratio.** The 10-Q credits the lower personal-loan ratio of 2.26%, against 2.60% a year earlier, to higher average balances. Personal-loan net charge-offs rose to $174.0 million from $137.3 million, on average balances of $30.613 billion against $20.964 billion.\n- **Most of Wall Street rates it Hold.** MarketBeat's consensus was Hold with a $21.27 average target on 2026-11-05. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut its target to $15 with an Underperform rating that day, and Truist raised its target to $17 with a Hold rating on 2026-11-03.\n- **Guidance is all adjusted.** SoFi gives its 2026 and 2027 outlooks in non-GAAP terms only. Full-year 2026 guidance is about $5.04 billion of adjusted net revenue and about $0.61 of adjusted EPS (2026-10-27 release).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $15.63 on 2026-11-12. On adjusted daily closes, that is below both the 50-day average of $16.24 and the 200-day moving average as of that session. The shares are down 14.5% over three months from the $18.29 close of 2026-08-14. The last close is 52.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $32.73, set on 2025-11-12.\n\nThree closes mark the range the case turns on. The low end is the 52-week closing low of $14.22 on 2026-10-14, the day the September CPI was released. The close before the third-quarter report was $14.46 on 2026-10-26. The close before the October CPI report was $16.75 on 2026-11-09. Since then the shares have given back part of their post-report gain, but they remain above the pre-report close.\n\nThe price reflects doubt about the 2027 outlook. At $15.63 on 2026-11-12, the shares sat below every analyst target cited here except Keefe, Bruyette & Woods' $15. The stock also draws heavy retail attention: The Motley Fool ran \"SoFi Stock Is Down 50% From Its High\" on 2026-11-06.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-09:** Federal Reserve rate decision. A hike, and especially a half-point hike, would raise SoFi's deposit costs and could reduce outside demand for its loans; a hold would remove the main pressure on the shares since the third-quarter report.\n- **~2027-01-29 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report. Shows whether SoFi keeps or raises the roughly $6.4 billion 2027 revenue outlook, and gives the next loan-sale-adjusted personal-loan charge-off rate and Loan Platform Business volume.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $17.37, the 200-day moving average as of 2026-11-12, which would show the shares recovering despite expectations of a December hike. A 2027 outlook raised above about $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nSoFi trades as a rate-sensitive consumer lender. Benzinga reported on 2026-11-02 that the shares rose as financial stocks climbed and falling oil prices eased worries about inflation and rates. The fall from $16.75 on 2026-11-09 to $15.63 on 2026-11-12 followed the hot October CPI, and SoFi had no news of substance in that span. In the near term, inflation reports and the Fed's decisions are likely to move the shares more than company news. Its own credit risk will show in the fourth-quarter report.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:08:48+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }