{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "SRZN",
  "name": "Surrozen, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SRZN/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SRZN.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "Surrozen's cash now runs into 2029, but the shares at $31.88 already carry that news; with the resale registration for $11.60 placement stock due about 19 November 2026, they are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $38.26, over the 52-week intraday high of $37.83 set on 2026-09-25, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 despite the pending resale supply.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "precision-biotech-therapeutics"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Surrozen Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Provides Business Update",
      "url": "https://investingnews.com/surrozen-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provides-business-update/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Surrozen Extends Cash Runway to 2029 with $220 Million Pro Forma Cash as Q3 Net Loss Widens to $130 Million",
      "url": "https://www.panabee.com/news/surrozen-earnings-q3-2026",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Cash and equivalents were $100.4M at 2026-09-30 and about $220.3M pro forma after October financing; the company expects cash to fund operations into 2029.",
      "source": "Surrozen Q3 2026 results release, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 net loss was $129.7M, including a non-cash $113.0M from changes in fair value of tranche and warrant liabilities; R&D was $10.8M and G&A $6.8M.",
      "source": "Surrozen Q3 2026 results release, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "First patient dosed in the Phase 1b portion of DUET; Phase 2a expands from about 60 to 150 patients versus Vabysmo; Phase 1b topline guided to 2H 2027 and Phase 2a topline to 2028.",
      "source": "Surrozen Q3 2026 results release, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Surrozen closed the second tranche of its March 2025 private placement for $95.1 million.",
      "source": "Company press release, 2026-10-20",
      "as_of": "2026-10-20"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Column Group III GP (10% owner) and director Tim Kutzkey each reported an option exercise of 1,551,724 shares at $11.60 on 2026-10-20.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings, 2026-10-22",
      "as_of": "2026-10-22"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight and raised its price target to $62.",
      "source": "Company news headline, 2026-11-10",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Guggenheim maintained Buy and raised its price target to $80.",
      "source": "Company news headline, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The shares closed at $31.88 on 2026-11-11 versus $23.73 on 2026-08-13, a 34.3% three-month gain.",
      "source": "Adjusted daily closes",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Healthcare",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0,
              "yoy_pct": -100
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 5,
              "yoy_pct": 408.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 5,
              "yoy_pct": 408.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-23",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.5,
              "yoy_pct": -19.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1,
              "yoy_pct": -90.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-08",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1,
              "yoy_pct": null
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -207.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -209.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -2393.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -1107.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-08",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -917.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -129.7,
          "four_quarters_musd": -390.2
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -30.6
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 0.2
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -30.8
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 37.4
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 100.4
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "none reported"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 100.4,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-30",
          "filed": "2026-08-06",
          "value_musd": 5
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": -335.6
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": null,
      "days_to_cover": 4.8,
      "change_pct": 43
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 6874540.01,
          "sold_usd": 7231020.6,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nSurrozen's cash now runs into 2029, but the shares at $31.88 already carry that news, and the resale registration for stock placed at $11.60 makes them more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over three months. The Form S-3 due about 2026-11-19 settles whether new supply caps the rally.\n\nThe company reported on 2026-11-09 that cash and equivalents were $100.4M at 2026-09-30 and about $220.3M pro forma after October financing, enough to fund operations into 2029. The $95.1M second tranche of the March 2025 private placement closed on 2026-10-20, and the company raised about $29.8M net through its at-the-market program in October. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $62 on 2026-11-10 and Guggenheim raised its target to $80 on 2026-11-12, both after the report.\n\nThe shares closed at $31.88 on 2026-11-11, 34.3% above the $23.73 close of 2026-08-13. SZN-8141, the lead drug for diabetic macular edema (DME), has no human efficacy data. The company guides Phase 1b topline data to the second half of 2027 and Phase 2a topline data to 2028.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Runway removes the funding risk.** Surrozen's 2026-11-09 results release shows $100.4M of cash at 2026-09-30 and about $220.3M pro forma, with operations funded into 2029.\n- **Dosing has started.** The same release says the first patient was dosed in the open-label Phase 1b portion of the DUET study of SZN-8141 in DME, inside the Q4 2026 guide.\n- **A larger, comparative trial.** The randomized Phase 2a portion expands from about 60 to 150 patients and tests two dose levels against Vabysmo (2026-11-09 release).\n- **Analysts raised targets after the report.** Cantor Fitzgerald moved to $62 on 2026-11-10 and Guggenheim to $80 on 2026-11-12, both keeping bullish ratings (company news headlines).\n- **Spending is rising with the program.** Research and development expense was $10.8M in the third quarter, against $7.8M a year earlier (2026-11-09 release).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Resale supply is next.** Surrozen planned to file a Form S-3 within 30 days of the 2026-10-20 closing, which would let holders who paid $11.60 per unit sell registered shares. SEC filings through 2026-11-09 list no such S-3 yet.\n- **Large paper gains sit with insiders.** Form 4 filings dated 2026-10-22 show Column Group III GP, a 10% owner, and director Tim Kutzkey each reporting an option exercise of 1,551,724 shares at $11.60 on 2026-10-20. The shares closed at $31.88 on 2026-11-11.\n- **Data are far away.** Phase 1b topline data are guided to the second half of 2027 and Phase 2a data to 2028 (2026-11-09 release), so no efficacy result arrives inside the next three months.\n- **Headline loss is mostly accounting.** Q3 2026 net loss was $129.7M, including $113.0M of non-cash fair-value changes on tranche and warrant liabilities (2026-11-09 release). Q3 earnings per share of $(11.02) compared with an estimate of $(1.10), according to a news report that day.\n- **Costs are climbing.** General and administrative expense was $6.8M in the third quarter against $4.1M a year earlier (2026-11-09 release).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $31.88 on 2026-11-11. That is 15.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $37.83 set on 2026-09-25, and above the 50-day average of $25.54. The 52-week closing low was $12.12 on 2025-11-11, close to the $11.60 placement price.\n\nRecent closes were $31.65 on 2026-11-04, $29.00 on 2026-11-05, $31.00 on 2026-11-06, $32.00 on 2026-11-09, $32.64 on 2026-11-10 and $31.88 on 2026-11-11. The shares rose after the third-quarter report rather than fell.\n\nThe market has priced in the funding, the first dosing and the analyst target raises, while the registration of $11.60 placement stock is still pending. Price moves around the S-3 filing are the nearest test of demand at these levels.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-19 (est.):** Form S-3 resale registration, due within 30 days of the 2026-10-20 second closing. Makes the $11.60 placement securities freely tradable; price and volume after it show whether new supply caps the shares near $32.\n- **2H 2027 (guided):** Phase 1b topline data from DUET for SZN-8141 in DME. First human data on the lead drug; the case for any sustained lead over the index rests on it.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $38.26, over the 52-week intraday high of $37.83 set on 2026-09-25, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 despite the pending resale supply.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nSurrozen is a small-cap ophthalmology company without human efficacy data, and its shares tend to follow small-cap biotech risk appetite and financing events. No peer or index relationship is measured here, and the recent sample of sessions is too small to draw one.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:13:09+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}