{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "SWIM",
  "name": "Latham Group, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SWIM/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SWIM.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Latham Group's fiberglass share gains lift sales 12.5%, but its shares, up 11.9% in three months, look likely to lag the S&P 500 as management plans for a flat 2027 pool market. The 2027 outlook in early March 2027 settles it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $9.50, above the 52-week intraday high of $8.97 from 2026-03-04, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a 2027 outlook that guides net sales growth above a flat pool market by more than 2026's pace.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-12-04",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "cyclical-industrials"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Latham Group, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001833197/000183319726000039/swim-20261103xexhibit99.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "MarketBeat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/transcript-latham-group-q3-earnings-call-highlights-2026-11-03/",
      "date": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "Latham's (NASDAQ:SWIM) Q3 2026 sales beat estimates",
      "url": "https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/swim/news/earnings/lathams-nasdaqswim-q3-2026-sales-beat-estimates",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Barchart",
      "url": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/544806/latham-group-inc-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial-results-and-provides-2026-guidance",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "briefglance.com",
      "url": "https://briefglance.com/articles/latham-group-bets-on-fiberglass-and-the-sunbelt-to-defy-housing-headwinds",
      "date": "2026-10-28"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter net sales rose 12.5% to $182.2 million, or 8.4% organically, and adjusted EBITDA rose 18.1% to $45.3 million.",
      "source": "Latham Group 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-09-26"
    },
    {
      "claim": "In-ground pool sales rose to $92.4 million from $75.4 million a year earlier; covers were $59.6 million and liners $30.1 million, down 4.9%.",
      "source": "Latham Group 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-09-26"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Full-year guidance narrowed to net sales of $605–$615 million and adjusted EBITDA of $112–$118 million, from $600–$620 million and $110–$120 million.",
      "source": "Latham Group 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash was $94.8 million and net debt $197.7 million, for net debt leverage of 1.8 times trailing adjusted EBITDA.",
      "source": "Latham Group 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-09-26"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The board approved a three-year, $100 million stock repurchase plan.",
      "source": "Latham Group 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Management is planning for a flat overall pool market in 2027.",
      "source": "Third-quarter 2026 earnings call, MarketBeat highlights",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter earnings were $0.10 per share against a $0.14 estimate; adjusted earnings were $0.143 against a $0.15 estimate.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Full-year 2025 net sales were $545.9 million, up 7.4%, with results released on 2026-03-03.",
      "source": "Latham Group fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-03-03"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-26",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 182.2,
              "yoy_pct": 12.5
            },
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              "end": "2026-06-27",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
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              "yoy_pct": 14.4
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              "yoy_pct": 5.3
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              "value_musd": 100,
              "yoy_pct": 14.5
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              "yoy_pct": 7.6
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 172.6,
              "yoy_pct": 7.8
            }
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-26",
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 36.7
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              "pct": 35.5
            },
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              "pct": 31.7
            },
            {
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            },
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 37.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-26",
              "filed": "2026-11-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 12.7
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              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -5.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -10.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-27",
              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-28",
              "filed": "2025-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 14.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 15
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-26",
          "value_musd": 12.1,
          "four_quarters_musd": 9.3
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 77.9
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 31.4
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 46.5
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "base_end": "2025-09-27",
          "pct": -0.1
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 94.8
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 292.5,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": -197.7
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-12-31",
          "filed": "2026-03-04",
          "value_musd": 4.3,
          "yoy_pct": 14.1
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 78.9
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 86.7
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 424.3
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 972.6
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 1170.3
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "multiple": 2
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "multiple": 37.3
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "multiple": 105
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "multiple": 2.3
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "pct": 4.8
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 3.67,
      "days_to_cover": 4.4,
      "change_pct": 11.6
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
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          "bought_usd": 315745,
          "sold_usd": 0,
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nLatham Group's fiberglass pool share gains are producing double-digit sales growth and wider margins. The shares already reflect that, and management is planning for a flat 2027 pool market. Over the next three months they look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to lead it. The 2027 outlook settles the case. It is expected with fourth-quarter results in early March 2027; last year's equivalent report came on 2026-03-03.\n\nThe third-quarter report on 2026-11-03 was strong. Net sales rose 12.5% to $182.2 million, or 8.4% organically, according to the company's 8-K. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) rose 18.1% to $45.3 million. The full-year guidance midpoints did not move: net sales of $605–$615 million and adjusted EBITDA of $112–$118 million.\n\nThe price has done the moving. The shares closed at $8.19 on 2026-11-12, up 11.9% over three months and above the 50-day moving average of $6.71 and the 200-day moving average of $6.23. At that level the market is paying for the growth already delivered in 2026, while the company's own 2027 planning assumes no help from the market.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Fiberglass is taking pool market share.** In-ground pool sales rose to $92.4 million in the quarter ended 2026-09-26 from $75.4 million a year earlier, according to the 8-K. On the 2026-11-03 call, management estimated its 2026 fiberglass share gain at 1.5 to 2 percentage points, pending third-party data.\n- **Warm-weather states are growing fastest.** Sales in the company's \"Sand States\" rose 21.1% in the third quarter, led by Florida and Texas, according to the 8-K. Management said on the call that Latham will enter Arizona in January 2027.\n- **Margins are widening with volume.** Gross margin rose 1.3 percentage points to 36.7% in the third quarter, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 24.8%, according to the 8-K.\n- **The balance sheet has more room.** At 2026-09-26, cash was $94.8 million and net debt $197.7 million, or 1.8 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, after a refinancing that pushed maturities to 2033, according to the 8-K.\n- **A buyback backs the shares.** The board approved a three-year, $100 million repurchase plan on 2026-11-03. Third-quarter operating cash flow was $48.8 million, according to the 8-K.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The 2027 market offers no help.** Management is planning for a flat overall pool market in 2027. CEO Sean Gadd said on the 2026-11-03 call, \"we're not thinking we're going to get a lot of help from the market,\" according to MarketBeat's call highlights.\n- **Guidance narrowed without rising.** On 2026-11-03, net sales guidance moved to $605–$615 million from $600–$620 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $112–$118 million from $110–$120 million. Management tied the change to expected fourth-quarter fuel, freight and commodity costs linked to the Middle East conflict.\n- **Earnings fell short of estimates.** Benzinga reported third-quarter earnings of $0.10 per share on 2026-11-03 against a $0.14 estimate, and adjusted earnings of $0.143 against $0.15. Net income included a $5.0 million loss on the debt refinancing, according to the 8-K.\n- **Not every product line is growing.** Liner sales fell 4.9% to $30.1 million in the third quarter, according to the 8-K. Reported growth also includes revenue from Freedom Pools, the Australian and New Zealand fiberglass business acquired on 2026-02-26.\n- **The rally came without an earnings upgrade.** The shares closed at $8.41 on 2026-11-11 against $7.32 on 2026-08-14, while the 2026 guidance midpoints held unchanged on 2026-11-03. Company news after the report through 2026-11-12 consists of a 2026-11-09 photo-contest announcement.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $8.19 on 2026-11-12. The highest close of the past week was $8.41 on 2026-11-11, and the shares closed at $8.40 on 2026-11-09. The 52-week intraday high is $8.97, set on 2026-03-04, the day after the full-year 2025 report; the last close is 8.7% below it.\n\nThe post-report move started from lower ground. The shares closed at $7.92 on 2026-11-05 and $7.85 on 2026-11-06 before jumping to $8.40 on 2026-11-09. The 52-week closing low was $4.76 on 2026-05-15, so the shares have recovered most of the year's range.\n\nThe case turns on two levels. A sustained move through the March intraday high of $8.97 would put the shares at a new 52-week high and would weaken the lag call. A fall back toward the 50-day moving average of $6.71 would mean the market has priced back the post-report gain.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-04:** Wolfe Research December Small Group Conference (virtual), announced by Latham on 2026-10-28. It offers a read on winter pool demand, fourth-quarter cost pressure and early 2027 planning before formal guidance.\n- **~2027-01-04 (est.):** Planned entry into Arizona, which management said will happen in January 2027. It tests whether warm-weather growth can extend beyond Florida and Texas into a new state.\n- **~2027-03-02 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report and 2027 outlook. It shows whether Latham can guide sales growth above a flat pool market, which decides the growth case.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $9.50, above the 52-week intraday high of $8.97 from 2026-03-04, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a 2027 outlook that guides net sales growth above a flat pool market by more than 2026's pace.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nLatham trades with pool-equipment and distribution peers such as Hayward Holdings and Pool Corporation. All three depend on new pool construction, which tracks housing turnover, interest rates and consumer spending on home projects. Weak pool data or cautious comments from either peer would likely weigh on Latham too.\n\nLatham's own driver, the shift from concrete and vinyl pools to fiberglass, gives it some independence from the overall pool market. Management's flat-2027 planning case shows how much of the outlook rests on that shift continuing.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:11:57+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}