{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "TKNO",
  "name": "Alpha Teknova, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TKNO/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TKNO.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "Alpha Teknova's third-quarter revenue rose 22% and it raised 2026 guidance to $46-48 million, but the shares at $8.55 already sit near the $8.75 consensus target; 2027 guidance due with full-year results in early 2027 decides the next move.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $10.95, 27% above the last close (2026-11-11), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": "2027-01-19",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "medtech-diagnostics"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Teknova Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results",
      "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/04/3395773/0/en/teknova-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results.html",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "Third quarter 2026 total revenue was $12.7 million, up 22% over the same quarter prior year",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/415764/teknova-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "MarketBeat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/transcript-alpha-teknova-q3-earnings-call-highlights-2026-11-05/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Alpha Teknova Q3 Earnings Call Highlights",
      "url": "https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2026/11/08/alpha-teknova-q3-earnings-call-highlights.html",
      "date": "2026-11-08"
    },
    {
      "title": "Alpha Teknova, Inc. (TKNO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TKNO/",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 revenue $12.7M, up 22% from $10.5M; Lab Essentials $9.0M (+9%), Clinical Solutions $3.2M (+86%).",
      "source": "Teknova Q3 2026 results press release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 gross margin 38.0% versus 30.7% a year earlier and 40.1% in Q2 2026; net loss $3.5M ($0.06 per share) versus $4.3M ($0.08).",
      "source": "Teknova Q3 2026 results press release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 revenue guidance raised to $46-48M from $45-47M; free cash outflow guidance of less than $8M reaffirmed.",
      "source": "Teknova Q3 2026 results press release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Offering closed with 9.2M shares sold at $5.00, including the underwriters' full option; gross proceeds $46.0M, net about $42.9M.",
      "source": "Teknova Q3 2026 results press release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-22"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and short-term investments $16.6M and total borrowings $13.2M; Q3 free cash flow negative $1.4M.",
      "source": "Teknova Q3 2026 results press release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CFO said adjusted EBITDA turns positive at $52-57M annualised revenue; full-year 2026 gross margin expected in the mid-to-upper 30% range; 2027 guidance comes with full-year results.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 earnings call (MarketBeat summary)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 sales of $12.704M beat the $11.639M estimate; loss of $0.06 per share beat the $0.07 estimate.",
      "source": "Benzinga",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Consensus rating Moderate Buy with a consensus target of $8.75.",
      "source": "MarketBeat data via The Cerbat Gem",
      "as_of": "2026-11-08"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Healthcare",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 12.7,
              "yoy_pct": 21.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 12.2,
              "yoy_pct": 18.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 11.1,
              "yoy_pct": 13.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-02",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 10,
              "yoy_pct": 7.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 10.5,
              "yoy_pct": 9.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-08",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 10.3,
              "yoy_pct": 7
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 38
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 40.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 34.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 32.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 30.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-08",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 38.7
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -25.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -23.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -38.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -46.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -38.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-08",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -32.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -3.5
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -3.5,
          "four_quarters_musd": -16
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -5.6
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 0.8
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -6.4
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 0.3
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 16.6
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 13.3,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 3.3
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 0,
          "yoy_pct": 366.7
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 5.8
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 7.5
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 59.8
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-04",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 516.4
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-04",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 513.1
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-04",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 11.2
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-04",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 8.6
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-04",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "pct": -1.2
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 2.62,
      "days_to_cover": 5.8,
      "change_pct": 0.9
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 143500,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nAlpha Teknova's third-quarter report on 2026-11-04 confirmed the growth case: revenue rose 22% and the company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $46-48 million. At the $8.55 close on 2026-11-09 the shares sit just below the $8.75 consensus target, so most of the good news is already priced. The next test is the 2027 revenue guidance due with full-year results in early 2027.\n\nTeknova sells culture media, buffers and reagents to life-science, diagnostics and biotech customers, including material made to clinical-grade (GMP) standards for drug programmes. Third-quarter revenue was $12.7 million, up from $10.5 million a year earlier (company release, 2026-11-04). The growth came from the clinical side. Clinical Solutions revenue rose 86% to $3.2 million, while Lab Essentials grew 9% to $9.0 million.\n\nThe story is well known: revenue was pre-announced on 2026-10-20, the report added a $1 million lift to each end of the guidance range, and the shares had already recovered from $5.85 on 2026-10-21 to $7.86 on 2026-10-28 before it (adjusted daily closes). The report settled the question of whether guidance would hold in the company's favour. The question now is whether the clinical growth repeats, and no company event is scheduled before the 2027-01-19 insider lock-up expiry.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Clinical revenue is accelerating.** Clinical Solutions revenue rose 86% year over year to $3.2 million in the third quarter (company release, 2026-11-04). On the 2026-11-05 call, management said custom-product demand was broad across customers and therapy types, mostly from programmes already in clinical trials.\n- **Guidance went up again.** The company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $46-48 million from $45-47 million and reaffirmed free cash outflow below $8 million (company release, 2026-11-04). That is the second raise after the 2026-08-05 lift from $42-44 million.\n- **Results beat estimates.** Third-quarter sales of $12.704 million beat the $11.639 million estimate, and the $0.06 loss per share beat the $0.07 estimate (Benzinga, 2026-11-04).\n- **Gross margin is much higher than a year ago.** Third-quarter gross margin was 38.0%, against 30.7% a year earlier, and the net loss narrowed to $3.5 million from $4.3 million (company release, 2026-11-04).\n- **Cash burn is small and the balance sheet is rebuilt.** Free cash flow was negative $1.4 million in the quarter (company release, 2026-11-04). The offering that closed on 2026-10-22 raised about $42.9 million net, on top of $16.6 million of cash and short-term investments at 2026-09-30.\n- **Management named a profitability threshold.** The chief financial officer said on 2026-11-05 that adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) turns positive at $52-57 million of annualised revenue (MarketBeat call summary).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Gross margin fell from the second quarter.** Gross margin slipped to 38.0% in the third quarter from 40.1% in the second (company releases, 2026-08-05 and 2026-11-04). Management guides full-year 2026 gross margin only to the mid-to-upper 30% range (call, 2026-11-05).\n- **Clinical orders are lumpy.** The chief financial officer warned that Clinical Solutions results can swing from quarter to quarter because orders are larger (call, 2026-11-05). The chief executive said it is \"still a little early\" and wants another couple of quarters of evidence.\n- **The share count grew by 9.2 million.** Underwriters exercised their full option, so the offering sold 9.2 million shares at $5.00 for $46.0 million gross (company release, 2026-11-04). Underwriters paid $4.70 a share (Form 8-K, October 2026).\n- **The cash may fund acquisitions.** Management said it did not need the capital to reach positive cash flow and wanted flexibility, including for possible acquisitions (call, 2026-11-05). An acquisition would add execution risk to a company still losing money.\n- **The shares sit at the consensus target.** MarketBeat's consensus target is $8.75 with a \"Moderate Buy\" rating (as reported 2026-11-08), against the $8.55 close on 2026-11-09. No broker raised a target after the report in coverage found to 2026-11-10; TD Cowen's $11 dates from 2026-10-13, and TD Cowen ran the offering.\n- **Debt is still outstanding.** Borrowings were $13.2 million at 2026-09-30, and the third-quarter cash flow statement shows no long-term debt repayment (company release, 2026-11-04).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $8.55 on 2026-11-09, 8.4% below the 52-week high of $9.33 (adjusted daily closes). They are up 15.7% over three months, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge, reads 58.9. That reading sits in neutral territory and does not signal an overheated move.\n\nThe path since the offering is steep. The shares traded as low as $4.94 on 2026-10-21, closed at $5.85 that day, reached $7.86 on 2026-10-28 and $8.55 on 2026-11-09. That is a 71% rise from the 2026-10-21 close in under three weeks.\n\nThe observable crowding signs are the gap between the $5.00 offering price and the current close, a short distance to the $8.75 consensus target, and the 2027-01-19 lock-up expiry. MarketBeat showed no insider buying or selling in the three months to 2026-10-28. No company filings were made public between the 2026-11-04 report and 2026-11-10.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2027-01-19:** Director and executive officer lock-up from the October 2026 offering ends. First date insiders can generally sell; Form 4 filings afterwards show whether they do.\n- **~2027-03-05 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results with first 2027 revenue guidance. Shows whether Clinical Solutions growth repeats and whether 2027 guidance approaches the $52-57M annualised revenue management ties to positive adjusted EBITDA.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $10.95, 27% above the last close (2026-11-11), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nTeknova's demand comes from small and mid-sized biotechs and their contract manufacturers, which management named as the source of custom-product growth (company release, 2026-11-04). The shares therefore tend to move with biotech funding conditions and small-cap life-science tools sentiment more than with the broad index. Larger tools suppliers' results feed the same reading: Thermo Fisher beat estimates and raised guidance on 2026-10-21 (Benzinga). Teknova's small size means company-specific news, such as its October equity sale, can outweigh sector moves on any given day.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-10T11:04:16+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-10",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-10",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}