{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "TLYS",
  "name": "Tilly's Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TLYS/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TLYS.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Tilly's earnings recovery and above-consensus third-quarter guidance are largely priced out of the shares, which are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the 2 December 2026 third-quarter report settles whether sales reach guidance.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $4.92, which would put the shares back at their September post-earnings range and show them leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter sales above the $155.000 million top of guidance on 2026-12-02 would also show the shares leading.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-12-02",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "TILLY'S, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001524025/000162828026060088/q2fy2026earningsrelease.htm",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q2 revenue $163.508M vs $157.000M estimate; EPS $0.27 vs $0.17 estimate",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-09-02",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 guidance: sales $150.000-$155.000M vs $140.300M estimate; GAAP EPS $0.07-$0.12 vs $(0.05) estimate; comparable sales +10% to +14%; 220 stores expected at quarter end",
      "source": "Tilly's Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release (8-K); Benzinga 2026-09-02",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Comparable sales +12.1% and online revenue +20.9% in the quarter ended 2026-08-01; gross margin 35.5% vs 32.5% a year earlier; fiscal August comparable sales +14.6%",
      "source": "Tilly's Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release (8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and marketable securities about $62.2M and merchandise inventories $80.2M at 2026-08-01; first-half net income $0.4M",
      "source": "Tilly's Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release (8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CFO Michael Henry bought 5,000 shares at $4.02 on 2026-09-21",
      "source": "SEC Form 4",
      "as_of": "2026-09-21"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fund 1 Investments, LLC (10% owner) sold 2,256,335 shares at an average $4.46 from 2026-09-03 to 2026-09-08",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-09-08",
      "as_of": "2026-09-08"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Tilly's announced it will report fiscal 2026 third-quarter results on 2026-12-02",
      "source": "Company news release, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Close $4.17; 50-day average $4.39; 200-day average $3.84; three-month price change 4.0%; 52-week high $6.25 (intraday, 2026-09-03)",
      "source": "Adjusted daily closes",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-08-01",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 163.5,
              "yoy_pct": 8.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 124.7,
              "yoy_pct": 15.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 139.6,
              "yoy_pct": -2.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-08-02",
              "filed": "2025-09-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 151.3,
              "yoy_pct": -7.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 107.6,
              "yoy_pct": -7.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 35.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 28.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 30.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-08-02",
              "filed": "2025-09-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 32.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 19.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -6.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -1.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-08-02",
              "filed": "2025-09-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 1.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -21.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 8.5
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-08-01",
          "value_musd": 8.4,
          "four_quarters_musd": 2
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 16.7
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 5.5
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 11.3
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "base_end": "2025-08-02",
          "pct": 3
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 62.2
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "none reported"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 62.2,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 13.2,
          "yoy_pct": 1.2
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 12.6
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 80.2
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 86.9
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-01",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 131.5
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-01",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 69.3,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-01",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "multiple": 92.9,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-01",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "multiple": 67
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-01",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "multiple": 1.5
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-01",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "pct": 8.6
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 1.84,
      "days_to_cover": 3.8,
      "change_pct": 4.2
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 20100,
          "sold_usd": 10072449.21,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 20100,
          "sold_usd": 12819486.71,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nTilly's earnings recovery is real, but the shares have returned close to their pre-results price, and they are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The third-quarter report on 2026-12-02 settles whether sales reach the company's guidance of $150.000–$155.000 million.\n\nThe shares closed at $4.17 on 2026-11-11. That is 33.3% below the 52-week high of $6.25 (intraday, 2026-09-03) and 4.0% above the $4.01 close of 2026-08-13, which was before the second-quarter results. The 50-day average of the adjusted closes is $4.39, above the last close. The 200-day average is $3.84, below it.\n\nBenzinga reported on 2026-09-02 that second-quarter revenue was $163.508 million against a $157.000 million estimate, and earnings per share were $0.27 against $0.17. The company guided third-quarter sales to $150.000–$155.000 million against a $140.300 million estimate, and GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings per share to $0.07–$0.12 against a $(0.05) estimate. The company announced on 2026-11-11 that it will report the quarter ended 2026-10-31 on 2026-12-02.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Sales improved in stores and online.** For the quarter ended 2026-08-01, comparable sales rose 12.1% and online revenue rose 20.9%, per the company's 2026-09-02 release. [Company 8-K, 2026-09-02](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001524025/000162828026060088/q2fy2026earningsrelease.htm)\n- **Early third-quarter sales were stronger still.** The same release said comparable sales for fiscal August, ended 2026-08-29, rose 14.6%, the 13th consecutive month of growth. The company guided third-quarter comparable sales up 10% to 14%.\n- **Margins widened year on year.** Gross margin was 35.5% for the quarter ended 2026-08-01, against 32.5% a year earlier, per the same release.\n- **The balance sheet holds cash.** Cash and marketable securities were about $62.2 million on 2026-08-01, with merchandise inventories of $80.2 million, down 1.3% from a year earlier. The company guided cash and investments to $62–$65 million at the end of the third quarter.\n- **An insider bought on the open market.** SEC Form 4 filings show Chief Financial Officer Michael Henry bought 5,000 shares at $4.02 on 2026-09-21.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The shares gave back the post-earnings jump.** Benzinga reported the shares up 30.7% to $4.98 in pre-market trading on 2026-09-03. The close of $4.17 on 2026-11-11 is below that price and below the $4.39 close of 2026-11-04.\n- **A 10% owner sold into the jump.** An SEC Form 4 filed 2026-09-08 shows Fund 1 Investments, LLC sold 2,256,335 shares at an average of $4.46 between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-08.\n- **Profits remain thin.** Net income for the first half ended 2026-08-01 was $0.4 million, per the company release. The company expects 220 stores at the end of the third quarter against 230 a year earlier, so rising comparable sales sit on a smaller store base.\n- **The company is very small.** Benzinga put its market value at $116.1 million on 2026-09-03. Data vendors disagree on the share count, so a market value at today's price is not cited here.\n- **No new fundamental news since September.** Company news in the last 30 days is limited to a 2026-10-31 leadership award for an executive and the 2026-11-11 report-date announcement.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe adjusted closes show $4.17 on 2026-11-11, between the 200-day average of $3.84 and the 50-day average of $4.39. The three-month price change is 4.0%.\n\nThe shares closed at $4.39 on 2026-11-04, then $4.21, $4.20, $4.22, $4.11 and $4.17 over the following five sessions (2026-11-05 to 2026-11-11). The 52-week closing low was $1.18 on 2025-11-24, so the shares remain well above their level of a year ago.\n\nThe September rally peaked at the 52-week intraday high of $6.25 on 2026-09-03. Closes after the report did not hold that range.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-02:** Third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report for the quarter ended 2026-10-31. Shows whether sales reach the $150.000–$155.000 million guidance, whether comparable sales land in the guided 10% to 14% range, and whether the 35.5% gross margin holds.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $4.92, which would put the shares back at their September post-earnings range and show them leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter sales above the $155.000 million top of guidance on 2026-12-02 would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nTilly's is a small teen and young-adult apparel and footwear retailer, and its shares trade with small-cap consumer discretionary names. Benzinga grouped it on 2026-09-03 with MarineMax and Sportsman's Warehouse in a list of overbought consumer stocks. A single list is too small a sample to say how closely the shares follow those peers.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:29:27+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}