{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "TRUP",
  "name": "Trupanion, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TRUP/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TRUP.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Trupanion's third-quarter beat is already in its share price, so the pet insurer's stock looks more likely to lag the S&P 500: the post-report gain faded by 10 November 2026 and new Stifel and Cantor targets sit at or below the price. The fourth-quarter report settles whether the margin gain widens.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $39.39, the 2025-11-13 close and the highest close of the past year, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above the $414 million top of guidance would also prove the call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "banks-insurers-capital-markets"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "TRUPANION, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001371285/000137128526000236/ex991q32026.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "TRUPANION, INC. - Form 10-Q - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001371285/000137128526000240/trup-20260930.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "TRUPANION, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001371285/000137128526000171/ex991q22026.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Trupanion Inc (TRUP) Reports Q3 2026 Earnings: $0.21 EPS and $405.6 Million Revenue Beat Estimates",
      "url": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9176398/trupanion-inc-trup-reports-q3-2026-earnings-021-eps-and-4056-million-revenue-beat-estimates",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "TRUPANION, INC. - Form S-3ASR - FY2023",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1371285/000137128523000356/forms-3asrnovember2023.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "TRUPANION, INC. - Form S-3ASR - FY2020",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1371285/000137128520000313/forms-3asrnovember2020.htm",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 total revenue was $405.6 million, up 11%; subscription revenue was $287.9 million, up 14%; earnings per share were $0.21 against a $0.16 estimate reported by Benzinga.",
      "source": "Trupanion Q3 2026 earnings release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1; Benzinga, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Subscription adjusted operating income was $45.4 million, a 15.8% margin against 15.5% in Q3 2025; total adjusted operating income was $47.0 million.",
      "source": "Trupanion Q3 2026 earnings release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Subscription enrolled pets were 1,145,160, up 6% year over year; total enrolled pets were 1,626,901, down 2%; monthly average retention was 98.38% against 98.33% a year earlier.",
      "source": "Trupanion Q3 2026 earnings release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue guidance is $407 million to $414 million against a $412.1 million consensus; full-year guidance narrowed to $1.590 billion to $1.597 billion from $1.584 billion to $1.601 billion.",
      "source": "Benzinga, Q3 2026 conference call headlines, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Stifel kept a Hold rating and raised its price target to $34 from $29; Cantor Fitzgerald kept a Neutral rating and raised its target to $33.",
      "source": "Benzinga analyst ratings, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Trupanion repurchased 830,389 shares for $25.0 million in Q3 2026 and repaid $15.0 million of PNC revolving loan borrowings on 2026-10-08; 43,265,932 shares were outstanding on 2026-10-29.",
      "source": "Trupanion Q3 2026 Form 10-Q",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and short-term investments were $396.8 million and debt was $104.5 million; free cash flow for the quarter was $28.5 million against $23.9 million a year earlier.",
      "source": "Trupanion Q3 2026 earnings release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Trupanion filed a prospectus for 3.636 million common shares on behalf of selling shareholders.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Healthcare",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 405.6,
              "yoy_pct": 10.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 392.9,
              "yoy_pct": 11.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-30",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 384,
              "yoy_pct": 12.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-13",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 376.9,
              "yoy_pct": 11.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 366.9,
              "yoy_pct": 12.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 353.6,
              "yoy_pct": 12.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 16.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 16
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 16.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 15.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 2.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 1.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 1.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 1.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 1.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 0.7
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 10.2
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 95.6
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 8.8
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 86.7
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 0.5
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 396.8
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 104.5,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt plus current maturities"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 292.4
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 290.2,
          "yoy_pct": 3.7
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 399.2
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-29",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 1491.8
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-29",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 1199.4
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-29",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 0.8
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-29",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 43.1
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-29",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 3.7
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-29",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "pct": 5.8
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 8.5,
      "days_to_cover": 9.3,
      "change_pct": -5.2
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 1732778.29,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 3916104.78,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nTrupanion's third-quarter results beat guidance, but the shares already reflect them and look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The post-report gain faded within three sessions, and the two brokers that raised targets after the report still set them at or below the price. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, settles whether the subscription margin gain widens again.\n\nThe 2026-11-05 release topped guidance on revenue. Total revenue was $405.6 million, up 11%, against guidance of $399 million to $405 million. Subscription revenue was $287.9 million, up 14%, against guidance of $284 million to $287 million. Adjusted operating income of $47.0 million reached the top of its $44 million to $47 million range.\n\nThe outlook added less. Benzinga reported fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $407 million to $414 million against a $412.1 million consensus. Full-year revenue guidance narrowed to $1.590 billion to $1.597 billion from $1.584 billion to $1.601 billion, and the middle of the range did not move.\n\nThe market's reaction fits that reading. The shares closed at $36.75 on 2026-11-06, the first session after the report, then fell back to $34.36 on 2026-11-11, below the $34.72 close before the report. On 2026-11-09 Stifel kept a Hold rating and raised its target to $34 from $29, and Cantor Fitzgerald kept Neutral and raised its target to $33 from $30, Benzinga reported. The price already carries the margin recovery that those brokers credit.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Pet growth picked up.** Subscription enrolled pets reached 1,145,160 at 2026-09-30, up 6% year over year, compared with 5% growth at 2026-06-30, per the company's releases.\n- **Subscription margin held its gain.** Subscription adjusted operating income was $45.4 million in the third quarter of 2026, a 15.8% margin against 15.5% a year earlier, per the 2026-11-05 release. The second-quarter margin was 15.0%.\n- **Vet costs grew slower than revenue.** Veterinary invoice expense rose to $287.5 million from $263.1 million in the third quarter of 2026, per the 10-Q, while revenue grew 11%.\n- **Retention and acquisition costs improved.** Monthly average retention was 98.38% against 98.33% a year earlier, a seventh straight quarter of improvement by the company's count. Pet acquisition cost fell to $279 from $290, per the 2026-11-05 release.\n- **Earnings beat and cash funds buybacks.** Earnings per share of $0.21 beat the $0.16 estimate, Benzinga reported on 2026-11-05. Trupanion bought 830,389 shares for $25.0 million in the quarter and held $396.8 million of cash and short-term investments against $104.5 million of debt at 2026-09-30.\n- **Brokers moved targets up.** Stifel lifted its target to $34 and Cantor Fitzgerald to $33 on 2026-11-09, both after the report, per Benzinga.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Margin gain narrowed sharply.** The subscription margin rose to 15.8% from 15.5% in the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter it rose to 15.0% from 13.8%, per the company's releases.\n- **Guidance brackets the consensus.** The $412.1 million fourth-quarter revenue consensus sits in the upper half of the $407 million to $414 million range, per Benzinga on 2026-11-05. The full-year midpoint held even though third-quarter revenue landed above its range.\n- **Raised targets still sit below the price.** Stifel's new $34 target and Cantor Fitzgerald's new $33 target, both dated 2026-11-09, are under the $34.36 close of 2026-11-11, and both firms kept neutral ratings.\n- **Total pets are still shrinking.** Total enrolled pets fell to 1,626,901 at 2026-09-30, down 2% year over year. The 10-Q says Trupanion and Pets Best agreed to end their relationship after the third quarter of 2028 and expects Pets Best enrollment to decline.\n- **Reserves moved the wrong way.** The 10-Q shows unfavorable prior-year reserve development over the first nine months of 2026: $2.6 million in subscription and $1.8 million in other business.\n- **Insiders sold small amounts into the rally.** SEC Form 4 filings show the chief operating officer sold 431 shares at $29.12 on 2026-10-28, and the chief executive sold 1,000 shares at $25.84 on 2026-10-09 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $34.36 on 2026-11-11, 14.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $39.97 set on 2025-11-11. The 52-week closing low was $21.46 on 2026-06-03. The 3-month change is 10.8%, from a $31.00 close on 2026-08-13.\n\nThe price sits well above both trend lines: the 50-day moving average is $27.49 and the 200-day is $26.66 as of 2026-11-11. The rise from $30.13 on 2026-10-30 to $34.72 on 2026-11-05 came before the report, with no company news in between. After the report the shares reached $36.75 on 2026-11-06 and then gave back that gain by 2026-11-10, closing at $34.26.\n\nBenzinga reported a prospectus filed on 2026-11-05 for 3.636 million shares on behalf of selling shareholders, against 43,265,932 shares outstanding on 2026-10-29. Prospectuses from November 2020 and November 2023 covered 3,636,364 shares for Aflac, so this filing reads as a renewal of that resale registration. A prospectus supplement or an ownership filing showing an actual Aflac sale would prove that reading wrong.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02-11 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 results; the company has not announced a date. Shows whether revenue clears the $407 million to $414 million guide, whether the subscription margin gain over the prior year widens from Q3's 0.3 points, and whether subscription pet growth holds at 6%.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $39.39, the 2025-11-13 close and the highest close of the past year, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above the $414 million top of guidance would also prove the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nTrupanion's shares move on its own quarterly reports: the 2026-11-06 session was the largest daily move among the closes from 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-11. Its results turn on veterinary cost inflation, pet enrollment and retention, and its release does not tie them to credit conditions or interest rates. A fall alongside insurance or consumer stocks with pet growth and margin intact would be a market move, and it would leave the business case unchanged.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T03:52:22+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}