{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "TTMI",
  "name": "TTM Technologies, Inc.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TTMI/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TTMI.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "TTM's 2026 momentum leg is dead: the AI/defense PCB story that ran to a $206.66 close (2026-06-15) unwound ~36% to ~$131 on no company news, and the stock now sits on ~$130 gap-fill support heading into a binary 2026-08-05 Q2 print. The theme still accelerates; the chart doesn't — a knife into earnings, stand aside until a base forms.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $128 loses the ~$130 June-gap fill and the rising 200-day, opening a deeper unwind toward the ~$100–110 pre-breakout base; secondarily, a 2026-08-05 Q2 print with book-to-bill under 1.0 or revenue below the $930M guide-low signals an AI/defense order rollover.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-05",
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure",
    "defense-aerospace",
    "cyclical-industrials",
    "ai-chips-memory"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Q2 2026 earnings CONFIRMED 2026-08-05 after close, call 4:30pm ET (announced 2026-07-22); the prior ~7/29 estimate is dead. Avoid fresh entries within 3 trading days (blackout ~7/31-8/5).",
    "Book-to-bill is the acceleration tell — 1.41 as of Q1 (4/29). Below 1.0 on the 8/5 print = thesis dead.",
    "AI+defense ~80% of sales (A&D 40% of Q1); Data Center & Networking +61% YoY in Q1. Watch mix drop below ~70% = narrative dilution.",
    "Leadership per 8/5 call notice: CEO Edwin Roks, CFO Dan Boehle.",
    "Momentum structure broke late June and kept breaking: -36% from $206.66 close (6/15) to $131.61 (7/24); rising support lost, no higher low yet. Broken chart on a still-accelerating theme — stand aside, not a value entry (still ~65-70x trailing, ~$15B market cap).",
    "Picks-and-shovels PCB/RF supplier, institutionally driven with sell-side PT cluster + fundamental backing — not a retail squeeze.",
    "Insider distribution: ~$19.8M sold over 3 months, zero buys, into the June top; IBD SwingTrader sell 6/24; Russell 1000 inclusion effective 6/26 marked the crowded-ownership peak.",
    "Key support stack: ~$130 June-gap fill + rising 200-day is the last shelf before the ~$100-110 pre-breakout base."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nTTM Technologies is a PCB/RF picks-and-shovels supplier levered to AI-data-center and defense end-markets whose 2026 price momentum has broken and kept breaking. From a $206.66 closing all-time high on 2026-06-15, the stock has bled roughly 36% to $131.61 (2026-07-24) with no company-specific news — a de-grossing of a crowded momentum position, accelerated by the -13.2% session on 2026-07-02 ($155.98). The rising trendline that defined the first-half uptrend is gone, insiders sold into the top, and the momentum ownership base has rotated out. What makes this awkward is that the *underlying theme* still accelerates — Data Center & Networking grew 61% YoY in Q1 and book-to-bill sat at 1.41 — while the *chart* does not. That combination (accelerating business, broken price structure, still-rich ~65–70x trailing multiple) walking into a binary 2026-08-05 Q2 print is a knife to stand aside from, not a fresh long. The name only becomes interesting again after it builds a base and the print re-confirms orders.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Q1 2026 (reported 2026-04-29) was a record beat**: revenue $846M, +30% YoY, ahead of the ~$787M consensus; Data Center & Networking revenue +61% YoY — the AI-infrastructure mix is real and compounding, not a slide-deck aspiration.\n- **Order book led shipments at last look**: total book-to-bill 1.41 and a $1.6B program backlog on the 2026-04-29 call, with aerospace & defense alone booking 1.41 — orders were running ahead of revenue, though this figure is now two quarters stale into the 2026-08-05 print.\n- **Q2 guide implies operating leverage**: management guided $930–970M revenue (+27–33% YoY) with EPS $0.82–0.88, EPS growth outrunning revenue growth.\n- **Multi-year framework re-anchored (2026-05-27 Investor Day)**: 15–20% annual revenue growth, EPS doubling by 2027, and a ~$4B revenue exit-rate ambition versus a ~$3.1B TTM run-rate.\n- **Defense demand is contracted and decorrelated from hyperscaler timing**: A&D was 40% of Q1 sales; the RTX/Raytheon LTAMDS radar-component award of up to $200M (2026-01-28) underpins part of the mix, and Farnborough Airshow presence (2026-07-14) keeps the defense pipeline visible.\n- **Capacity is funded, not promised**: the Syracuse ultra-HDI facility opened 2026-06-22, and the 2026-06-03 refinancing ($1.0B revolver due 2031, $400M Term Loan B at SOFR+1.75% due 2030) funds expansion without an equity raise.\n- **Index legitimacy**: Russell 1000 inclusion effective 2026-06-26 broadened the passive ownership base.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The breakdown is orderly and persistent, not a single flush**: $206.66 close (2026-06-15) → $155.98 (2026-07-02, -13.2%) → $141.97 (2026-07-14) → $133.17 (2026-07-20) → $131.61 (2026-07-24), each week printing a lower shelf on no company news.\n- **Valuation still offers little cushion**: ~$15B market cap and a ~65–70x trailing P/E on a mid-teens-EBITDA-margin cyclical PCB manufacturer; a soft or in-line print compresses that multiple fast.\n- **Insiders distributed into the top**: roughly $19.8M sold across three months with zero buys ahead of the June break.\n- **Momentum ownership already left**: IBD SwingTrader flagged a sell on 2026-06-24, and the Russell 1000 inclusion on 2026-06-26 marked the \"everyone owns it now\" moment that often tops crowded rebalance trades.\n- **Binary earnings sit directly ahead (2026-08-05)** with no support beneath a still-elevated multiple; the metrics anchoring the bull (1.41 book-to-bill) are stale and must re-print strong to hold the story.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- Last print $131.61 (2026-07-24 close), inside an unusually wide $131.16–$143.01 intraday range that session and closing near the low — volatility elevated, sellers in control.\n- ~36% below the $206.66 closing ATH (2026-06-15); the H1 rising-support line is decisively lost, and the structure is lower-highs / lower-lows since late June with no higher low yet.\n- Price is now resting on the ~$130 June-gap fill and the rising 200-day — the last structural shelf before the ~$100–110 pre-breakout base comes into play.\n- RSI has traveled from stretched (~73 in early June) to oversold on the unwind; a reflex bounce is possible, but a bounce into a binary print is not a setup.\n- Until a base with a confirmed higher low forms and volume dries up on down days, any long here is catching a falling knife.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **Late July / early August (est.)** — AI-infra and EMS peer prints (Celestica, Fabrinet, Jabil) will set the read-through tone for hyperscaler PCB/substrate demand ahead of the 08-05 report.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **2026-08-05 (confirmed, after close)** — The binary event: watch book-to-bill versus 1.41, revenue versus the $930–970M guide, and the AI+defense mix versus ~80%. *(passed 4d ago)*\n- **~2026-07-30 → 2026-08-05** — earnings blackout run-in; expect positioning-driven volatility and no fresh company catalysts. Avoid fresh entries inside the final three trading days. *(passed 4d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n- **Constructive re-engagement:** a weekly close reclaiming ~$150 on a confirmed higher low with expanding volume, paired with an 2026-08-05 print holding book-to-bill above ~1.2 and revenue at or above the $930M guide-low — that re-arms the AI/defense leg for a fresh long at a clean setup.\n- **Deeper-avoid confirmation:** a weekly close below $128 loses the ~$130 gap-fill and the rising 200-day, opening the ~$100–110 pre-breakout base.\n- **Fundamental break:** book-to-bill under 1.0, or the AI+defense mix slipping below ~70%, on 2026-08-05 signals an order rollover — the acceleration story dies, not just the chart.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- Co-moves with the AI-data-center capex complex (AVGO and hyperscaler-infra suppliers, PCB/substrate peers) and with defense electronics (RTX, LHX).\n- Closest single-name comps are Celestica (CLS), Fabrinet (FN) and Jabil (JBL); the tell to watch is whether the late-June/July unwind was cohort-wide momentum de-grossing or TTMI-specific distribution — if those peers held their trends while TTMI broke, the supply was single-name.\n- Since Russell 1000 inclusion (2026-06-26) the name trades more tightly with large-cap passive flows and momentum-factor unwinds than it did as a small-cap.\n- The 40%-of-sales defense revenue provides partial decorrelation from hyperscaler capex timing — the one leg that can hold if broad AI-infra sentiment wobbles.",
  "first_seen": "2026-05-01",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-07-25T07:54:58+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-07-25",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}