{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "TXN",
  "name": "Texas Instruments Incorporated",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TXN/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TXN.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a3",
    "n": 3
  },
  "current_thesis": "Q2 (2026-07-22) was a double beat — $5.46B revenue, +23% YoY, EPS $2.14 — with a raised Q3 guide, yet TXN faded from ~$294 to ~$280: good news couldn't hold the bid, the $331.51 ATH leg is spent and the binary print has passed. The analog/AI-datacenter re-rate is intact fundamentally, but the near-term setup has rolled into sell-the-news distribution.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $272 confirms the sell-the-news reversal and forfeits the post-earnings support shelf; secondary: analog peers (ADI/MCHP/ON) printing sequential order declines, or a Q3 guide cut, signalling the analog cycle re-rolling.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure",
    "semiconductors-analog",
    "ai-chips-memory"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Q2 2026 printed 2026-07-22: revenue $5.46B (+23% YoY), EPS $2.14 (incl $0.05 one-time), GM 61.4%, op profit +48%; Q3 guide rev $5.65-6.15B / EPS $2.23-2.57 — double beat + raised guide, but stock faded ~$294 -> ~$280 (sell-the-news).",
    "Binary is behind the tape: next earnings ~2026-10-21 (est.), outside 30d — roughly 3 months with no company-specific catalyst to offset profit-taking. Catalyst_date set null.",
    "Not a fresh momentum entry here: lost the ~$294-308 consolidation and the 20-EMA post-print; needs a higher low above ~$272 or a weekly reclaim of ~$308 to re-arm a continuation.",
    "Analyst tape wildly dispersed 2026-07-23: bears Goldman Sell $225 / MS Underweight $255 / Bernstein $290; bulls Keybanc $400 / Baird $385 / Benchmark $360 / Rosenblatt $350; avg ~$320 (36 analysts), dragged by outliers.",
    "Mega-cap (~$255B at ~$280): velocity-capped — realistic upside is a grind to outlier PTs, no IONQ-style move.",
    "Silicon Labs $7.5B ($231/sh, announced 2026-02-04) cleared HSR 2026-05-22; closes H1 2027 — 2027 integration story, not a near-term driver.",
    "CFO transition: Julie Knecht effective 2026-08-01 (announced 2026-06-02), succeeding Rafael Lizardi.",
    "Theme split: AI-datacenter demand strong at company/peer level (mgmt 2026-07-23 'strong for the foreseeable future'), but TXN-specific price momentum has rolled over — treat as MATURING for entries, not ACCELERATING."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nThe analog-cyclical recovery and the AI-data-center-power re-rate remain fundamentally intact, but the trade has changed character. Q2 2026 (reported 2026-07-22) was a clean double beat — revenue $5.46B, +23% YoY, above the $5.00–5.40B guide high end, with EPS $2.14 (including a $0.05 one-time benefit) versus a $1.77–2.05 guide — and the Q3 guide was raised. The stock still sold off, sliding from ~$294.19 (2026-07-22) to ~$279.90 (2026-07-24). Good news that cannot hold the bid is the signature of a maturing move: the late-June PT-raise leg that carried price toward the $331.51 all-time high is spent, the binary print has passed, and the tape has given back the entire June–July consolidation. This is no longer an accelerating setup; it is a post-catalyst unwind that needs to base before it earns a fresh entry.\n\n## Bull Case\n- Q2 2026 (2026-07-22): revenue $5.46B, +23% YoY; operating profit +48% YoY to $2.31B; gross margin 61.4% — a broad beat led by industrial, automotive and data center.\n- Segment strength on the Q2 call (2026-07-22): Analog +26% YoY, Embedded Processing +16% YoY — the core franchise is compounding, not just recovering off a trough.\n- Q3 2026 guide (issued 2026-07-22): revenue $5.65–6.15B (midpoint ~$5.90B, above the ~$5.7B Street) and EPS $2.23–2.57 — management guiding the upturn to widen.\n- Management on 2026-07-23 said AI data center demand \"will stay strong for the foreseeable future,\" keeping the data-center revenue line the growth engine.\n- Cash engine intact: trailing-12-month operating cash flow $8.67B and free cash flow $6.53B (33.6% of revenue) per the Q2 report (2026-07-22), funding the Sherman/Lehi fab build and the dividend.\n- Bull-side target cluster (2026-07-23): Keybanc $400, Baird $385, Benchmark $360, plus Rosenblatt $350 (2026-07-24) — outlier targets imply meaningful upside from ~$280.\n- Silicon Labs $7.5B all-cash deal ($231/sh, announced 2026-02-04) cleared its HSR waiting period 2026-05-22; targeted close H1 2027 adds embedded wireless connectivity content.\n\n## Bear Case\n- The reaction is the signal: a double beat plus a raised Q3 guide produced a decline from ~$294.19 (2026-07-22) to ~$279.90 (2026-07-24). When a stock cannot rally on a beat, sellers are distributing into strength.\n- The sell-side is split, not confirming: Goldman Sachs Sell $225 and Morgan Stanley Underweight $255 (both 2026-07-23) and Bernstein Market Perform $290 sit against the bulls; the wide dispersion undercuts the \"everyone's raising targets\" read.\n- The binary is behind the tape. With Q2 printed, the next scheduled company driver is the ~late-October Q3 report, leaving roughly three months with no catalyst to offset profit-taking.\n- Structure has broken: price is below the $331.51 ATH and below the ~$294–308 June–July consolidation, having lost the rising 20-EMA (low-$300s) that framed the late-June breakout leg.\n- Hyperscaler capex is the demand engine and it keeps wobbling — GOOGL/MSFT fell up to 6% on spending concerns 2026-06-22, and the 2026-07-23 \"Google AI cash burn\" headline shows the market re-pricing that risk into the data-center line.\n- Mega-cap gravity: at ~$280 the market cap is ~$255B, capping velocity — a strong outcome is a grind back toward the outlier PTs, not a fast double.\n- CFO transition: Julie Knecht effective 2026-08-01 (announced 2026-06-02), succeeding Rafael Lizardi — a finance-seat change days after the print.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- Price ~$279.90 (2026-07-24), down from ~$294.19 (2026-07-22) into the earnings reaction; 52-week range $152.73–$331.51.\n- The name handed back the ~$294–308 June–July consolidation post-print and lost the rising 20-EMA — the leg that ran on the late-June PT cluster has unwound rather than paused.\n- The 200-DMA is rising through the ~$210–220 zone; price remains roughly +30% above it, so this is the unwind of an extended advance, with no fresh base yet built.\n- First support is the post-earnings shelf near $279–281 (2026-07-23/24). A weekly close below $272 converts the fade into a trend reversal; a weekly reclaim of ~$308 would repair the breakout and put $331.51 back in view.\n- Analyst tape (2026-07-23) spans $225–400 with an average near $320 across 36 analysts; price now sits below that average, but the mean is dragged higher by outlier bulls rather than a tight consensus.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- Mid-to-late August: analog-peer reads — ADI, MCHP, ON and NXPI report late-Aug into early-Sept, plus monthly semiconductor billings; sequential order/backlog trends there re-price the cycle for TXN.\n- ~2026-10-21 (est.): Q3 2026 earnings — the next binary, outside the 30-day window; no blackout yet.\n- No FDA/PDUFA, analyst day, or scheduled company catalyst inside the next 30 days — the tape is between drivers, which favors mean-reversion over a fresh impulse leg.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- 2026-08-01: CFO transition — Julie Knecht becomes CFO (announced 2026-06-02), succeeding Rafael Lizardi. Governance event, not a numbers print. *(passed 8d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n- A weekly close below $272 confirms the post-earnings break as a genuine reversal and takes the analog re-rate off the table near-term. Conversely, a weekly reclaim of ~$308 repairs the lost consolidation and re-arms a continuation toward the $331.51 ATH.\n- Analog peers (ADI, MCHP, ON) printing sequential order or backlog declines in their late-August reports would confirm the cycle re-rolling — the bear scenario, read straight across to TXN.\n- A hyperscaler capex cut (GOOGL/MSFT/AMZN/META guiding data-center spend lower) hits the fast-growing data-center revenue line first and would break the AI-power leg of the story.\n- Re-acceleration proof: a clean higher low holding above ~$272 followed by data-center revenue re-accelerating on the Q3 print would justify a fresh momentum entry rather than the current stand-aside.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- Moves with the analog-cycle cohort — ADI, MCHP, ON, NXPI — where a peer order-trend miss transmits directly to TXN's multiple.\n- Second-order exposure to the AI-datacenter capex complex (NVDA, AVGO and hyperscaler spend) through power and analog content; the 2026-06-22 and 2026-07-23 hyperscaler-spend scares show the beta running both ways.\n- Rate-sensitive mega-cap: inflation running above 4% (June data) and Fed drift-higher risk pressure the multiple, and the name tracks the broad SOX/SMH semis complex.",
  "first_seen": "2026-05-01",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-07-25T07:56:59+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-07-25",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}