{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "UPBD", "name": "Upbound Group, Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UPBD/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UPBD.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": { "code": "a4", "n": 4 }, "current_thesis": "Upbound Group's tighter Acima lending is lifting profit and cash flow as lease volume shrinks, Brigit adds growth, and executives kept buying stock; the late-February 2027 Q4 report shows whether Acima volume levels off as guided.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $16.90, under the 2026-10-28 pre-report close of $16.91, which would erase the gain after the Q3 report. A clear year-over-year decline in Q4 Acima GMV against roughly flat guidance, or 2026 free cash flow below $250 million, would also break the case.", "catalyst_date": "2026-11-27", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "fintech-consumer-credit" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "Upbound Group (NASDAQ:UPBD) Stock: Insider Fahmi Karam Purchases 4,407 Shares", "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/insider-upbound-group-nasdaq-upbd-stock-insider-fahmi-karam-purchases-4407-shares-2026-11-05/", "date": "2026-11-05" }, { "title": "Upbound Group (NASDAQ:UPBD) CEO Buys $100,082.97 in Stock", "url": "https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/11/08/upbound-group-nasdaqupbd-ceo-buys-100082-97-in-stock.html", "date": "2026-11-08" }, { "title": "Upbound Group (NASDAQ:UPBD) Stock: Insider Glenn Marino Purchases 17,400 Shares", "url": "https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/11/06/upbound-group-nasdaqupbd-stock-insider-glenn-marino-purchases-17400-shares.html", "date": "2026-11-06" }, { "title": "UPBD Stock Price, News & Analysis", "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/overview/UPBD/", "date": null }, { "title": "Business Wire", "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251204255436/en/Upbound-Group-Inc.-Declares-Quarterly-Cash-Dividend-of-%240.39-for-the-First-Quarter-of-2026", "date": "2025-12-04" } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "CEO Fahmi Karam bought 4,407 shares at $22.71 on 2026-11-03 and 12,165 shares at $24.66 on 2026-11-05; COO Scott Young bought 6,015 shares at $24.95 on 2026-11-09, all open-market purchases.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filings dated 2026-11-05, 2026-11-09 and 2026-11-10", "as_of": "2026-11-10" }, { "claim": "On 2026-11-02 and 2026-11-03, CFO Halim Khouri (11,000 shares at $22.78), directors Glenn Marino (17,400 at $22.61) and Jeffrey Brown (17,645 at $22.67), CTO Balaji Kumar (2,200 at $22.77) and CGO Rebecca Wooters (4,325 at $23.00) bought shares.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filings dated 2026-11-04", "as_of": "2026-11-04" }, { "claim": "Q3 2026 revenue $1.15 billion; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.01 vs $0.91 consensus; GAAP diluted EPS $0.58; adjusted EBITDA $123 million.", "source": "Upbound Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1); Benzinga", "as_of": "2026-10-29" }, { "claim": "Acima GMV $431 million, down 11% year over year; revenue $585 million, down about 6.5%; adjusted EBITDA about $86 million, up about 15%, margin 14.7%; lease charge-offs 8.7%.", "source": "Upbound Q3 2026 earnings release and call", "as_of": "2026-10-29" }, { "claim": "Brigit revenue $79 million, up 37%; paying users 1.84 million, up about 27%; adjusted EBITDA $14.7 million, up 59%; net advance loss rate about 4.4%.", "source": "Upbound Q3 2026 earnings release and call", "as_of": "2026-10-29" }, { "claim": "Q3 free cash flow about $121 million; debt reduced by more than $225 million since year-end 2025; net leverage 2.4x vs 2.6x prior quarter.", "source": "Upbound Q3 2026 earnings release and call", "as_of": "2026-10-29" }, { "claim": "FY2026 guidance: revenue $4.68–$4.78 billion, non-GAAP EPS $4.15–$4.30, free cash flow at least $250 million. Q4 guidance: revenue $1.15–$1.25 billion, non-GAAP EPS $1.00–$1.10, Acima GMV roughly flat year over year.", "source": "Upbound Q3 2026 earnings release and call; Benzinga", "as_of": "2026-10-29" }, { "claim": "MarketBeat consensus rating Hold (one Buy, three Hold) with an average price target of $27.00; TD Cowen kept a Buy rating and cut its target to $26 from $27 on 2026-10-30.", "source": "MarketBeat; Benzinga 2026-10-30", "as_of": "2026-11-05" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Industrials", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1146.2, "yoy_pct": -1.6 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1163.4, "yoy_pct": 0.5 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-01", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1219.7, "yoy_pct": 3.7 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-23", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1196.4, "yoy_pct": 10.9 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-31", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1164.7, "yoy_pct": 9 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-31", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1157.5, "yoy_pct": 7.5 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "restated": null, "pct": 50.6 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "restated": null, "pct": 51.1 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-01", "restated": null, "pct": 48.1 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-23", "restated": null, "pct": 49 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-31", "restated": null, "pct": 48.3 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-31", "restated": null, "pct": 49.4 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "restated": null, "pct": 6.2 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-31", "restated": null, "pct": 4.7 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-01", "restated": null, "pct": 6.3 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-23", "restated": null, "pct": 4.8 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-31", "restated": null, "pct": 4.5 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-31", "restated": null, "pct": 4.4 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "value_musd": 46.7 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 34.3, "four_quarters_musd": 111.4 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 498.7 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 65.1 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 433.6 }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": -0.2 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "value_musd": 125.1 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "value_musd": 911.2 }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "value_musd": -786.2 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-23", "value_musd": 63.5, "yoy_pct": -2.3 }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "not reported" }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-30", "value_musd": 750.1 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-22", "basis_filed": "2026-10-30", "value_musd": 1462.8 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-22", "basis_filed": "2026-10-30", "value_musd": 2249 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-22", "basis_filed": "2026-10-30", "multiple": 0.5 }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-22", "basis_filed": "2026-10-30", "multiple": 8.6 }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-22", "basis_filed": "2026-10-30", "multiple": 13.1 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-22", "basis_filed": "2026-10-30", "multiple": 2 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-22", "basis_filed": "2026-10-30", "pct": 29.6 } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 15.75, "days_to_cover": 8.2, "change_pct": 1.6 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 1840818.17, "sold_usd": 188500, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 1976365.97, "sold_usd": 188500, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nUpbound Group's tighter lending at Acima, its lease-to-own unit, is raising profit and cash flow while lease volume shrinks, and Brigit, its cash-advance app, adds a faster-growing second engine. Executives kept buying shares as the price rose. The Q4 report, expected around late February 2027, settles the case by showing whether Acima volume levels off as management guided.\n\nThe rating is Medium because the Q3 results and continued insider buying support the case, while the price now sits close to analyst targets. The shares closed at $25.27 on 2026-11-11, near the 52-week intraday high of $25.36 set that day. That price reflects the Q3 beat and the insider buying already: it sits just below TD Cowen's $26 target (2026-10-30) and MarketBeat's $27.00 average target (2026-11-05), so further gains need the Q4 numbers to deliver.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Insiders kept buying at higher prices.** SEC Form 4 filings show CEO Fahmi Karam bought 4,407 shares at $22.71 on 2026-11-03, then 12,165 more at $24.66 on 2026-11-05. Chief Operating Officer Scott Young bought 6,015 shares at $24.95 on 2026-11-09, the highest price paid in the group.\n- **Buying spread across the leadership team.** Form 4 filings show purchases on 2026-11-02 by Chief Financial Officer Halim Khouri (11,000 shares at $22.78), directors Glenn Marino (17,400 at $22.61) and Jeffrey Brown (17,645 at $22.67), and Chief Technology Officer Balaji Kumar (2,200 at $22.77). Chief Growth Officer Rebecca Wooters bought 4,325 at $23.00 on 2026-11-03.\n- **Acima profit rose on lower volume.** Acima's Q3 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose about 15% to about $86 million, a 14.7% margin (company 8-K, 2026-10-29). Lease charge-offs fell to 8.7%, which management called the lowest since 2021.\n- **Brigit is the growth engine.** Brigit's Q3 revenue rose 37% to $79 million, and paying users rose about 27% to 1.84 million. Its adjusted EBITDA rose 59% to $14.7 million (company 8-K, 2026-10-29).\n- **Cash flow is cutting debt.** Q3 free cash flow was about $121 million, and debt is down more than $225 million since year-end 2025 (company 8-K, 2026-10-29). Net leverage fell to 2.4x from 2.6x a quarter earlier (Q3 call, 2026-10-29).\n- **Earnings beat and guidance narrowed upward.** Q3 adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $1.01 beat the $0.91 consensus on revenue of $1.15 billion (Benzinga, 2026-10-29). Management narrowed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15–$4.30 from $4.00–$4.35.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The price has reached analyst targets.** The $25.27 close on 2026-11-11 sits just under TD Cowen's $26 target and MarketBeat's $27.00 average. MarketBeat counted one Buy and three Holds on 2026-11-05.\n- **Analysts have not followed the price.** TD Cowen kept its Buy rating but cut its target to $26 from $27 on 2026-10-30, its third cut since 2026-07-31.\n- **Acima volume is still shrinking.** Acima's gross merchandise volume (GMV, the value of goods leased) fell 11% to $431 million in Q3, and revenue fell about 6.5% to $585 million (Q3 call, 2026-10-29). Management attributed 55% to 60% of the volume drop to tighter underwriting.\n- **Sales guidance moved down.** The 2026 sales range fell to $4.68–$4.78 billion from $4.70–$4.85 billion, and Q4 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.00–$1.10 sits at or below the $1.10 consensus (Benzinga, 2026-10-29).\n- **Brigit credit losses need watching.** Brigit's net advance loss rate was about 4.4% in Q3 (Q3 call, 2026-10-29). Faster advance growth into a stressed lower-income consumer can lift that rate.\n- **Momentum lists now flag the shares.** Benzinga on 2026-11-11 named Upbound among three consumer stocks at risk of a pullback after sharp gains. Short interest stood at 9.2 million shares, 16.4% of float, with 8.2 days to cover (StockTitan, 2026-11-06), which can amplify moves either way.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares rose 31.7% over the three months to 2026-11-11 in adjusted daily closes. The last close of $25.27 on 2026-11-11 sits 0.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $25.36 set the same day. It is far above the 50-day moving average of $17.86 and the 200-day moving average of $18.37, both as of 2026-11-11.\n\nThe rise came in steps from the 52-week closing low of $15.36 on 2026-10-06. The Q3 report lifted the shares from $16.91 on 2026-10-28 to $19.98 on 2026-10-29. The insider purchases at $22.61 to $23.00 on 2026-11-02 and 2026-11-03 followed, and the shares closed between $24.14 and $25.27 from 2026-11-04 through 2026-11-11.\n\nThe insider purchase prices of $22.61 to $24.95 mark where management bought. No insider selling or share issuance has been reported in SEC filings into the rise. The next earnings report is more than three months away, so the holiday season and the December dividend declaration are the nearer tests.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-27:** Black Friday and the US holiday selling season. Management's roughly flat Q4 Acima GMV guidance assumes a normal holiday season; weak big-ticket demand would show up in the Q4 volume figure.\n- **~2026-12-04 (est.):** Next quarterly dividend declaration, based on the 2025-12-04 declaration a year earlier. Holding the $0.39 rate supports the free cash flow guidance; a cut would undercut the cash-generation case.\n- **~2027-02-26 (est.):** Q4 and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether Acima GMV levelled off, whether 2026 free cash flow reached at least $250 million, and what 2027 guidance implies for revenue growth.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $16.90, under the 2026-10-28 pre-report close of $16.91, which would erase the gain after the Q3 report. A clear year-over-year decline in Q4 Acima GMV against roughly flat guidance, or 2026 free cash flow below $250 million, would also break the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Acima's volume decline continues as tighter approvals and weak big-ticket demand persist. Confirmed by: Q4 2026 Acima GMV down clearly year over year at the next report, against guidance of roughly flat.\n- Consumer stress pushes Brigit credit losses higher as advances grow. Confirmed by: Brigit's net advance loss rate rising clearly above the Q3 2026 level of about 4.4%.\n- Cash flow falls short, slowing debt reduction and pressuring the dividend. Confirmed by: 2026 free cash flow below $250 million, net leverage above 2.4x, or a cut to the $0.39 quarterly dividend.\n- The share price has run past what analysts support, leaving little room for upgrades. Confirmed by: Analysts downgrading the shares or holding targets at or below TD Cowen's $26 while the price stays above them.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nUpbound sits in the fintech and consumer-credit group with LendingTree (TREE), MediaAlpha (MAX), EverQuote (EVER), Fiserv (FISV) and Ibotta (IBTA). Its own drivers are lower-income consumer credit and big-ticket retail demand, which tie it more to holiday spending and credit-loss trends than to its peers' lead-generation and payments businesses. MarketBeat listed the shares' beta at 1.80 as of 2026-11-06, so broad market moves tend to be amplified in the price.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:07:37+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }