{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "VCEL", "name": "Vericel Corporation", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VCEL/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VCEL.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": { "code": "a7", "n": 7 }, "current_thesis": "Vericel's knee-cartilage implant MACI is growing above 20% a year and the 5 November 2026 report raised 2026 revenue guidance to $344–346 million. The fourth-quarter report settles the case by showing whether MACI reaches about $102 million.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $49.32, under the $51.78 close of the 2026-11-05 results day, which would give back most of the gain since the report. Full-year 2026 MACI revenue under $290 million would also end the case.", "catalyst_date": "2026-12-31", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "medtech-diagnostics" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "SEC EDGAR", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000887359/000162828026070622/ex991earningsreleaseq32026.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "Vericel Corp (VCEL) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript", "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/05/vericel-corp-vcel-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/", "date": "2026-11-05" }, { "title": "Vericel Delivers Its Strongest Beat and Raise of 2026 but Burn Care Spike and a Cautious 2027 Signal Temper the Story", "url": "https://finviz.com/news/417305/vericel-delivers-its-strongest-beat-and-raise-of-2026-but-burn-care-spike-and-a-cautious-2027-signal-temper-the-story", "date": "2026-11-05" }, { "title": "Truist raises Vericel stock price target on MACI growth momentum", "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/truist-raises-vericel-stock-price-target-on-maci-growth-momentum-93CH-5009020", "date": null }, { "title": "Vericel to Present at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Wednesday, January 14, 2026", "url": "https://www.santelog.com/actualites-sante-nasdaq/vericel-present-44th-annual-jp-morgan-healthcare-conference-wednesday", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 total revenue rose 26% to $85.4 million; MACI revenue rose 21% to $67.4 million and Burn Care revenue rose 52% to $18.0 million.", "source": "Vericel Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-11-05" }, { "claim": "2026 guidance was raised to $344–346 million total revenue, $290–292 million MACI revenue, $54 million Burn Care revenue and a 28% adjusted EBITDA margin; gross margin guidance stayed at about 75%.", "source": "Vericel Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-11-05" }, { "claim": "Management raised its fourth-quarter MACI framework to about 21% growth, roughly $102 million, from high-teens growth, and described about $12 million of fourth-quarter Burn Care revenue.", "source": "Vericel Q3 2026 earnings call, 2026-11-05", "as_of": "2026-11-05" }, { "claim": "Management said it will set initial 2027 guidance conservatively, anchored near consensus and below the current run-rate.", "source": "Earnings Whispers via Finviz, 2026-11-05", "as_of": "2026-11-05" }, { "claim": "Vericel held $235.6 million of cash and investments with no debt, and repurchased 220,744 shares for $8.8 million in the third quarter, with $191.2 million of authorization remaining.", "source": "Vericel Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "CFO Joseph Mara exercised options on 50,000 shares and sold 50,000 shares at an average of $53.48 on 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-06 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-09", "as_of": "2026-11-06" }, { "claim": "Stephens raised its Vericel price target to $68 and kept an Overweight rating; Truist raised its target to $65 from $52 a day earlier.", "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-09 and 2026-11-10", "as_of": "2026-11-10" }, { "claim": "HC Wainwright raised its Vericel price target to $75 from $72 and kept a Buy rating.", "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-06", "as_of": "2026-11-06" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Healthcare", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "restated": null, "value_musd": 85.4, "yoy_pct": 26.5 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-30", "restated": null, "value_musd": 77.5, "yoy_pct": 22.5 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-07", "restated": null, "value_musd": 68.4, "yoy_pct": 30.1 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-26", "restated": null, "value_musd": 92.9, "yoy_pct": 23.3 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-06", "restated": null, "value_musd": 67.5, "yoy_pct": 16.6 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-31", "restated": null, "value_musd": 63.2, "yoy_pct": 20.1 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "restated": null, "pct": 73.3 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-30", "restated": null, "pct": 72.8 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-07", "restated": null, "pct": 72 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-26", "restated": null, "pct": 78.7 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-06", "restated": null, "pct": 73.5 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-31", "restated": null, "pct": 73.7 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "restated": null, "pct": 14.3 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-30", "restated": null, "pct": 0.6 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-07", "restated": null, "pct": -11.8 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-26", "restated": null, "pct": 24.1 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-06", "restated": null, "pct": 5.1 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-31", "restated": null, "pct": -3.2 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "not reported" }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 14.2, "four_quarters_musd": 33.3 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 65.3 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 7.4 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 57.9 }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": 2 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 170.3 }, "debt": { "status": "not available" }, "net_cash": { "status": "not available" }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "not reported" }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 81.8 }, "inventory": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 17.1 }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 384.2 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-05", "value_musd": 2906.7 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "not available" }, "ev_sales": { "status": "not available" }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not available" }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-05", "multiple": 87.3 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-05", "multiple": 7.6 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-05", "pct": 2 } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 10.26, "days_to_cover": 9.5, "change_pct": 0.7 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 5787801.78, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 13001944.11, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nVericel's knee-cartilage implant MACI is growing above 20% a year, and the 2026-11-05 report raised 2026 revenue guidance to $344–346 million. The case is modestly better than even that the shares beat the S&P 500 over three months. The fourth-quarter report settles it by showing whether MACI reaches the roughly $102 million that management described on the call.\n\nThird-quarter revenue rose 26% to $85.4 million against a $77.948 million estimate, Benzinga reported. MACI revenue rose 21% to $67.4 million, the sixth straight quarter at 20% or more. Management raised its fourth-quarter MACI framework from high-teens growth to about 21%, Earnings Whispers reported from the call.\n\nThe price already reflects a large part of this. The shares closed at $57.42 on 2026-11-12, up 29.9% over three months. That close still sits below the targets of Truist ($65), Stephens ($68) and HC Wainwright ($75), all set after the report. The rating is Medium because demand has to hold through the seasonally largest quarter, and management has signalled a conservative 2027 guide.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **MACI growth has lasted six quarters.** MACI revenue rose 21% to $67.4 million in the third quarter, per the 2026-11-05 earnings call. Full-year MACI guidance rose to $290–292 million from $284–290 million, per the company's 8-K.\n- **The arthroscopic version is widening use.** More than 25% of condyle procedures under 4 square centimeters used MACI Arthro in the third quarter, a level management called a record on the 2026-11-05 call. The 8-K also reported record third-quarter biopsies, implants and surgeons.\n- **Profit is rising faster than revenue.** Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose 48% to $25.2 million, or 30% of revenue, per the 8-K. Operating income rose to $12.2 million from $3.5 million a year earlier, and full-year margin guidance rose to 28% from 27%.\n- **The balance sheet funds its own plans.** Vericel held $235.6 million of cash and investments and no debt at 2026-09-30, per the 8-K. It repurchased 220,744 shares for $8.8 million in the quarter, with $191.2 million of authorization remaining.\n- **New markets extend the runway.** Management sizes MACI Ankle at about 20,000 US patients a year, per the 2026-11-05 call. The UK's NICE (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence) accepted MACI for appraisal and the MHRA (the UK medicines regulator) completed its facility inspection, keeping a second-half 2027 UK launch on track, Earnings Whispers reported on 2026-11-05.\n- **Three firms lifted targets after the report.** HC Wainwright raised its target to $75 from $72 on 2026-11-06, Truist to $65 from $52 on 2026-11-09, and Stephens to $68 on 2026-11-10, Benzinga reported. Truist had cut its target to $52 as recently as 2026-10-14.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The year depends on one quarter.** MACI revenue was $189.3 million over the first nine months, per the 8-K, and the call put the fourth quarter at about $102 million. CFO Joe Mara tied upside on the 2026-11-05 call to early December trends continuing.\n- **The 2027 guide is set to be cautious.** Management said it will set initial 2027 guidance conservatively, near consensus and below the current run-rate, Earnings Whispers reported on 2026-11-05. That guide arrives with the fourth-quarter report, after a 29.9% three-month rise in the shares.\n- **Burn revenue is set to fall.** Burn Care revenue jumped 52% to a record $18.0 million in the third quarter, including $3.0 million of BARDA (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) procurement, per the 8-K and call. The call implied about $12 million in the fourth quarter, and CEO Nick Colangelo said the company \"can't control the number of catastrophic burns that occur.\"\n- **Gross margin has work left to do.** Gross margin was 73% in the third quarter, unchanged from a year earlier, per the 8-K. Management kept its full-year guide at about 75%, which requires a stronger fourth quarter.\n- **Cash generation slipped in the quarter.** Free cash flow was $15.7 million, down from $19.5 million a year earlier, Earnings Whispers reported from the 2026-11-05 results. Nine-month stock-based compensation was $28.2 million, per the 8-K.\n- **Insiders sold into the jump.** CFO Joe Mara exercised options on 50,000 shares and sold 50,000 at an average of $53.48 on 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-06, per a Form 4 filed 2026-11-09. Director Robert Zerbe, Chief Legal Officer Sean Flynn and Principal Accounting Officer Jonathan Siegal also sold after option exercises on 2026-11-04 and 2026-11-05; all four Form 4s cite Rule 10b5-1 trading plans.\n- **Competition is active abroad.** A competing cartilage technology launched in Europe and the UK ahead of MACI, Earnings Whispers reported on 2026-11-05. Management called MACI the clear market leader on the call.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $51.78 on 2026-11-05, the day of the results, and then at $54.62 on 2026-11-06 and $58.39 on 2026-11-09. They reached the 52-week intraday high of $59.75 on 2026-11-11 and closed that day at $59.45. The close of $57.42 on 2026-11-12 is 3.9% below that high.\n\nThe three-month gain is 29.9%, measured from a $44.20 close on 2026-08-14. As of 2026-11-12, the 50-day moving average is $42.45 and the 200-day is $39.30, so the shares trade well above both. The 52-week closing low is $29.34, set on 2026-03-27.\n\nThe price levels the case turns on are the 2026-11-05 close of $51.78, which marks the first post-results session, and the $59.75 high of 2026-11-11. A fall back toward the results-day close would show the market discounting the raised guide. A close above the high would show buyers paying up ahead of the fourth quarter. No company report falls between now and the end of the quarter on 2026-12-31.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-31:** Fourth quarter of 2026 closes, the largest revenue quarter of the year for MACI. Management tied upside to early December trends continuing, so the quarter's last weeks decide whether MACI reaches about $102 million.\n- **~2027-01-12 (est.):** J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, where Vericel presented on 2026-01-14; a 2027 appearance is not yet announced. It is the first likely company appearance after the quarter closes and may give an early read on fourth-quarter demand.\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report, with initial 2027 guidance; date not yet announced. It tests MACI growth against the 20% pace and the 75% gross margin guide, and shows how far below the current run-rate the conservative 2027 guide is set.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $49.32, under the $51.78 close of the 2026-11-05 results day, which would give back most of the gain since the report. Full-year 2026 MACI revenue under $290 million would also end the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- MACI demand softens in the seasonally largest quarter and growth falls below the 20% pace of the past six quarters. Confirmed by: Full-year 2026 MACI revenue under the $290 million low end of guidance, or management reporting slower biopsy growth.\n- Initial 2027 guidance lands low enough to reset expectations after the shares' 29.9% three-month rise. Confirmed by: A 2027 MACI growth guide below 20% in the fourth-quarter report, followed by analyst target cuts.\n- Gross margin falls short of guidance after running at about 73% through the first nine months of 2026. Confirmed by: A reported full-year 2026 gross margin clearly under the approximately 75% guide in the fourth-quarter report.\n- Burn Care revenue drops more than planned because Epicel demand depends on catastrophic burn cases and procurement timing. Confirmed by: Fourth-quarter Burn Care revenue under the roughly $12 million described on the 2026-11-05 call.\n- Competing cartilage repair products that launched in Europe and the UK ahead of MACI expand and slow MACI adoption. Confirmed by: Management citing competitive losses, lower surgeon growth, or a delayed UK launch on a future earnings call.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nVericel's revenue depends on surgeon adoption of MACI, knee cartilage procedure volumes, burn incidence and BARDA procurement. Procurement is planned at about $3 million in the fourth quarter and about $4 million in the first quarter of 2027, per the 2026-11-05 call.\n\nThe shares rose on 2026-11-05 while the Nasdaq fell over 3%, Benzinga reported. One session is too small a sample to measure correlation. The view that company results will outweigh index direction over the next three months would be wrong if the shares fall in step with the Nasdaq through sessions that carry no Vericel news.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T22:49:25+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }