{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "VFC",
  "name": "V.F. Corporation",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VFC/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VFC.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "V.F. Corporation's shares look likely to lag the S&P 500 because they already price in a Vans recovery that results have not shown. The third-quarter report, estimated for about 27 January 2027, settles whether Vans improves to a second-half decline of 2% or better.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $23.53, over the $22.27 52-week high of 2026-04-21, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A third-quarter report showing Vans revenue flat or growing, or a raised fiscal 2027 revenue outlook, would also prove this call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "World Footwear",
      "url": "https://www.worldfootwear.com/news/vf-corp-exceeds-second-quarter-guidance-as-profitability-improves/11866.html",
      "date": "2026-10-30"
    },
    {
      "title": "VF Corp. Finds Its Winning Formula With North Face and Timberland, but Vans Lags",
      "url": "https://www.webull.com/news/15825924331471872",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "VF Corporation exceeds expectations in second quarter",
      "url": "https://fashionunited.uk/news/business/vf-corporation-exceeds-expectations-in-second-quarter/2026102891081",
      "date": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "title": "VF Corp: Truist Securities raises target price to $25 from $20",
      "url": "https://rallies.ai/news/vf-corp-truist-securities-raises-target-price-to-25-from-20-9e74066a6581e689",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "V.F. (NYSE:VFC) Stock Bumped Up to \"Strong-Buy\" by Truist Financial",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-vf-nyse-vfc-stock-bumped-up-to-strong-buy-by-truist-financial-2026-10-14/",
      "date": "2026-10-14"
    },
    {
      "title": "Zacks",
      "url": "https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3017625/vf-corp-q2-earnings-beat-on-margin-gains-brand-strength",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "VF Corporation Progressed on Transformation in Its Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Delivering Revenue Growth Margin Expansion and Debt Reduction",
      "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260128355682/en/VF-Corporation-Progressed-on-Transformation-in-Its-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Delivering-Revenue-Growth-Margin-Expansion-and-Debt-Reduction",
      "date": "2026-01-28"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q2 fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings were $0.70 a share against a $0.54 estimate; sales were $2.695 billion against a $2.667 billion estimate.",
      "source": "Benzinga, Q2 results headline",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Vans revenue was $547.6 million, down 10%; The North Face rose 4% to $1.21 billion and Timberland rose 4% to $525.9 million.",
      "source": "World Footwear, Q2 FY27 results report",
      "as_of": "2026-09-26"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Adjusted operating income excluding Dickies was $364 million against guidance of $315 million; adjusted gross margin excluding Dickies was 55.4%, up 2.9 percentage points.",
      "source": "Benzinga, via Webull; World Footwear",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "VF reaffirmed fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 2% or better in constant currency and an adjusted operating margin of about 8%.",
      "source": "VF Q2 FY27 report, via Benzinga and World Footwear",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Net debt fell $1.1 billion, or 20%, from a year earlier; net inventories rose 7%.",
      "source": "World Footwear, Q2 FY27 results report",
      "as_of": "2026-09-26"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Truist Securities raised its VF target price to $25 from $20.",
      "source": "rallies.ai, Truist target headline",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Barclays kept an Overweight rating and raised its VF target to $28.",
      "source": "Benzinga headline",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Deutsche Bank kept a Hold rating with a $19 target, up from $18; BNP Paribas upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at $16; Baird kept Neutral at $16.",
      "source": "fiscal.ai; Benzinga headlines",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-26",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-26",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 2695.1,
              "yoy_pct": -3.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-27",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1669.4,
              "yoy_pct": -5.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-28",
              "filed": "2026-05-20",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 2166,
              "yoy_pct": 1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-27",
              "filed": "2026-01-28",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 2875.8,
              "yoy_pct": 1.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-27",
              "filed": "2025-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 2802.7,
              "yoy_pct": 1.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-28",
              "filed": "2025-07-30",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1760.7,
              "yoy_pct": -0.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-26",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 55.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-27",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 54.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-28",
              "filed": "2026-05-20",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 56.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-27",
              "filed": "2026-01-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 56.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-27",
              "filed": "2025-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 52.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-28",
              "filed": "2025-07-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 53.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-26",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-27",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-28",
              "filed": "2026-05-20",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 2.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-27",
              "filed": "2026-01-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 10.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-27",
              "filed": "2025-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 11.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-28",
              "filed": "2025-07-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -4.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 346.9
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-26",
          "value_musd": 285.3,
          "four_quarters_musd": 369.7
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "first_end": "2025-12-27",
          "value_musd": 829.7
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "base_end": "2025-09-27",
          "pct": 1.4
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 443
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 3538.6,
          "composition": "long-term debt and finance leases plus short-term borrowings"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": -3095.7
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 75.8,
          "yoy_pct": 13.7
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 5.7,
          "yoy_pct": -88.9
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 1885.7
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 1984.4
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 2033.3
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-24",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 8140.5
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-24",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 11236.1
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-24",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 1.2
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-24",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 17.7
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-24",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 22
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-24",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 4
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 9.42,
      "days_to_cover": 3,
      "change_pct": 2.8
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 1302452.12,
          "sold_usd": 142241.4,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nV.F. Corporation's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months, because the price has moved ahead of Vans, its largest problem brand. The 2026-10-28 report showed a wide profit beat. Vans revenue still fell 10%, and the full-year revenue outlook was reaffirmed, not raised. The third-quarter report, estimated for about 2027-01-27, settles whether Vans improves to the second-half outlook of a 2% or better decline.\n\nThe shares closed at $20.64 on 2026-11-11, a 41.0% gain over three months on adjusted daily closes. That price already credits margins, debt reduction and a Vans turn the reported numbers have not yet shown. The rating is Low because the main business test is about two and a half months away, while the price sits within 7.3% of its 52-week high.\n\nBroker support keeps building. Truist raised its target to $25 from $20 on 2026-11-11, rallies.ai reported, after upgrading the shares to Buy with a $20 target in mid-October, according to MarketBeat on 2026-10-14. Barclays raised its target to $28 on 2026-11-05. These moves add attention but not new Vans sales data.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **The profit beat was wide.** Adjusted earnings were $0.70 a share on 2026-10-28, against a $0.54 consensus, and revenue of $2.695 billion beat the $2.667 billion estimate, Benzinga reported.\n- **Margins carried the quarter.** Adjusted operating income excluding Dickies was $364 million against guidance of $315 million (Benzinga, 2026-10-28). World Footwear reported on 2026-10-30 that the adjusted gross margin was 55.4%, up 2.9 percentage points.\n- **Guidance points to faster growth.** Press coverage of the 2026-10-28 report has VF guiding third-quarter revenue growth of about 3% or better in constant currency, after 1% excluding Dickies in the second quarter. Benzinga reported a full-year revenue outlook above $9.526 billion, against a $9.509 billion consensus.\n- **Vans shows early signs of repair.** CEO Bracken Darrell said on 2026-10-28 that Vans direct-to-consumer sales grew for the first time in nearly five years. World Footwear reported on 2026-10-30 that management cited strong second-half orders from wholesale partners.\n- **Debt is falling.** Net debt fell $1.1 billion, or 20%, from a year earlier, World Footwear reported on 2026-10-30.\n- **Bullish brokers keep raising targets.** Truist went to $25 from $20 on 2026-11-11, Barclays (Overweight) to $28 on 2026-11-05, and BTIG reiterated Buy at $23 on 2026-10-28.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Vans got worse last quarter.** Vans revenue was $547.6 million in the quarter ended 2026-09-26, down 10%. The decline was 9% in the first quarter, and Zacks had modelled an 8.9% drop on 2026-10-23.\n- **The second half needs a sharp swing.** Management expects Vans to decline 2% or less in the second half, after falling about 10% in the second quarter. Inventories rose 7% from a year earlier ahead of that expected demand, according to the 2026-10-28 report.\n- **The revenue outlook did not rise.** VF reaffirmed full-year growth of 2% or better in constant currency and an adjusted operating margin of about 8% on 2026-10-28, despite the second-quarter beat.\n- **The other brands grew modestly.** The North Face rose 4% to $1.21 billion and Timberland rose 4% to $525.9 million in the second quarter. Zacks had modelled 7.5% Timberland growth on 2026-10-23.\n- **International sales shrank.** EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa) revenue fell 6% to $1.01 billion and Asia-Pacific fell 7% in constant currency to $361 million, World Footwear reported on 2026-10-30.\n- **The price is above cautious targets.** The $20.64 close on 2026-11-11 sits above post-report targets of $19 at Deutsche Bank (Hold), $16 at BNP Paribas (Neutral) and $16 at Baird (Neutral), all dated 2026-10-29.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $20.64 on 2026-11-11, 7.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $22.27 set on 2026-04-21. The 52-week closing low was $12.62 on 2026-09-10, and the 3-month reference close was $14.74 on 2026-08-13.\n\nSince the post-report surge, the price has held a narrow range. Closes ran from $20.32 on 2026-11-05 to $20.93 on 2026-11-04 across the six sessions to 2026-11-11. As of 2026-11-11, the 50-day moving average was $15.75 and the 200-day moving average was $16.83, both well below the last close.\n\nSEC Form 4 filings show director Richard Carucci bought 20,000 shares in the open market at $14.73 on 2026-08-13. The only later filing, on 2026-11-04, records 233,136 shares that Chief Commercial Officer Brent Hyder had withheld for tax at $18.97 on 2026-11-02, which is not an open-market sale. The levels that matter are the $22.27 52-week high above the price and the 200-day average below it.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-10:** Record date for the 9-cent quarterly dividend, payable 2026-12-17. It is the only dated company event before the third-quarter report and does not change the Vans question.\n- **~2027-01-27 (est.):** Third-quarter fiscal 2027 results; date estimated from VF's 2026-01-28 report a year earlier. It is the first report that can show the Vans wholesale improvement behind the second-half outlook of a 2% or better decline, and it tests third-quarter guidance for revenue growth of about 3% or better.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $23.53, over the $22.27 52-week high of 2026-04-21, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A third-quarter report showing Vans revenue flat or growing, or a raised fiscal 2027 revenue outlook, would also prove this call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nVF's three-month gain traces to its own 2026-10-28 report and the broker target increases that followed. Company results therefore carry the case more than moves across consumer brands do. A stronger sector can extend the price but cannot supply Vans sales. The view that company results dominate would be wrong if the shares fell back below the 200-day moving average during a sector-wide decline with no change to VF's outlook.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:25:21+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}