{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "WEYS",
  "name": "Weyco Group, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEYS/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEYS.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Weyco Group's 2026 earnings jump leans on tariff refunds that are nearly used up, so the shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; the fourth-quarter report, estimated for around 3 March 2027, shows margins without refunds.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $65.77, which would put the shares well over their 2026-11-05 close of $63.07 and show the market paying for earnings beyond the refunds. A fourth-quarter gross margin above the 49.7% reported for the third quarter would also show the shares leading.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "WEYCO GROUP INC - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000106532/000110465926121985/weys-ex99d1.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "MarketBeat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/transcript-weyco-group-q3-earnings-call-highlights-2026-11-04/",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "Finviz",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/416282/weycos-725-eps-surge-leans-on-tariff-refunds-but-broad-wholesale-strength-and-a-2-special-dividend-show-real-progress",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "Weyco Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results",
      "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/04/3338824/0/en/Weyco-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.html",
      "date": "2026-08-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "Weyco Q2 Earnings: $15.3 Million Tariff Refund Masks Underlying Margin Pressures",
      "url": "https://www.panabee.com/news/weyco-earnings-q3-2026",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter net sales rose about 5% to $77.0 million from $73.1 million, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.19 from $0.69.",
      "source": "Weyco Group 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter gross margin was 49.7%, including $3.3 million of tariff refunds, against 40.7% a year earlier. Earnings Whispers put it at roughly 45% without the refunds.",
      "source": "Weyco Group 8-K, 2026-11-03; Earnings Whispers via Finviz, 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Second-quarter operating earnings were $17.0 million, including $15.3 million of tariff refunds, against $3.9 million a year earlier.",
      "source": "Weyco Group second-quarter release, 2026-08-04",
      "as_of": "2026-06-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Weyco paid about $19.8 million of IEEPA tariffs; $1.2 million of third-phase claims were filed in early October, with $0.4 million approved and $0.8 million under review.",
      "source": "Weyco Group 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and marketable securities totaled $95.2 million, with no borrowings on the $40 million revolving credit line.",
      "source": "Weyco Group 8-K, 2026-11-03; 2026-11-04 earnings call, per MarketBeat summary",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The board declared a $2.00 special and a $0.28 regular dividend, payable 2027-01-08 to holders of record on 2026-11-17.",
      "source": "Weyco Group 8-K earnings release, 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Director Frederick Stratton sold 2,030 shares at $61.70 and Chief Financial Officer Judy Anderson sold 1,263 shares at $60.12, both on 2026-11-06.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings, 2026-11-09 and 2026-11-10",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Inventories were $60.1 million at 2026-09-30, down from $65.9 million at 2025-12-31; management expects about $70 million at the end of the fourth quarter.",
      "source": "Weyco Group 8-K, 2026-11-03; 2026-11-04 call, per MarketBeat summary",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 77,
              "yoy_pct": 5.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 62.2,
              "yoy_pct": 6.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 68,
              "yoy_pct": 0
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-13",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 76.8,
              "yoy_pct": -4.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 73.1,
              "yoy_pct": -1.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 58.2,
              "yoy_pct": -8.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 49.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 70.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 44.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 44.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 40.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 43.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 27.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 11
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 11
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.7
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 14.7
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 11.5,
          "four_quarters_musd": 39.6
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 50.6
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 2.8
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 47.8
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 1.2
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 91.2
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 49.4
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 60.1
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 263.5,
          "label": "including non-controlling interests"
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 569.3
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "multiple": 14.4
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "multiple": 2.2
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "pct": 8.4
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 1.32,
      "days_to_cover": 3.6,
      "change_pct": -11.8
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 480210.18,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 886821.46,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nWeyco Group's 2026 earnings surge comes mostly from tariff refunds that are nearly used up, while sales are growing at a modest 5% to 7%. The shares closed at $59.77 on 2026-11-12 and are up 32.9% over three months, and the fourth-quarter report, estimated for around 2027-03-03, settles whether margins hold without refunds.\n\nThe shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The price has moved faster than the recurring earnings can be measured, and on last year's calendar no earnings report falls inside that window.\n\nThe business itself is sound on its filed numbers. Weyco sells Florsheim, Stacy Adams, Nunn Bush and BOGS footwear. It held $95.2 million of cash and marketable securities at 2026-09-30, with nothing drawn on its $40 million credit line. The open question is what it earns once refunds of duties paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) stop.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Sales are growing beyond the refunds.** Net sales rose 5% to $77.0 million in the quarter ended 2026-09-30, after rising 7% to $62.2 million in the second quarter, per company releases. Third-quarter wholesale sales rose 6% to $64.0 million, with Florsheim and Stacy Adams up 9% each and BOGS up 6%.\n- **Margin is higher even without refunds.** Third-quarter gross margin was 49.7%, including $3.3 million of refunds, against 40.7% a year earlier. Earnings Whispers estimated on 2026-11-04 that it would have been roughly 45% without them, which would still sit well above the year-earlier figure.\n- **Cash covers the dividends.** Cash and marketable securities were $95.2 million at 2026-09-30, and nine-month operating cash flow was $26.6 million against $1.9 million of capital spending, per the 8-K filed with the third-quarter release. The board declared a $2.00 special and a $0.28 regular dividend on 2026-11-03, payable 2027-01-08.\n- **Retailers have room for dress brands.** Chief Executive Thomas Florsheim Jr. said on the 2026-11-04 call that some competitors have weakened and that softer athletic footwear gives retailers more budget for dress and casual lines, per MarketBeat's call summary.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Refunds inflate 2026 earnings.** Second-quarter operating earnings of $17.0 million included $15.3 million of refunds, per the 2026-08-04 release. Panabee calculates operating income excluding the credit at $1.7 million, against $3.9 million a year earlier.\n- **The refund pool is nearly empty.** Weyco paid about $19.8 million of IEEPA duties. The $18.6 million of first-phase claims was fully recognized by 2026-09-30, leaving $1.2 million of third-phase claims, with $0.4 million approved and $0.8 million under review.\n- **Pricing offers little protection.** Management said on 2026-11-04 that it does not want to raise wholesale prices while consumers are under pressure, and it named supply-chain inflation as a possible margin squeeze. Earnings Whispers noted on 2026-11-04 that the company gave no formal guidance.\n- **Insiders sold into the rally.** Director Frederick Stratton sold 2,030 shares at $61.70 and Chief Financial Officer Judy Anderson sold 1,263 shares at $60.12, both on 2026-11-06, per SEC Form 4 filings. Both are small sales, and several officers also exercised options on 2026-11-05.\n- **Two business lines are weak.** Nunn Bush sales fell 1% in the third quarter, with management citing private-label and licensed competition. Florsheim Australia sales fell 10% in local currency, and the unit lost $0.4 million at the operating line.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $60.69 on 2026-11-06 and at $59.77 on 2026-11-12. The 52-week high of $68.39 came intraday on 2026-11-05, and the last close is 12.6% below it. The close on 2026-08-14, the three-month reference, was $45.26.\n\nThe 50-day average of adjusted closes is $50.73 and the 200-day average is $39.57, so the shares sit well above both. The market has priced in the refund-boosted earnings and the special dividend: the shares rose 32.9% over three months to the 2026-11-12 close, on a business growing sales 5% to 7%.\n\nThe shares should also lose about $2.28 of price mechanically around the 2026-11-17 record date for the special and regular dividends. That drop reflects the payout and says nothing about the business.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-17:** Record date for the $2.00 special and $0.28 regular dividends. The shares are expected to lose about $2.28 of price around this date for mechanical reasons, which separates dividend effects from any change in the business case.\n- **2027-01-08:** Payment of the special and regular dividends. The payment lowers the $95.2 million cash and securities balance reported at 2026-09-30 and shows how much cash remains after the refund period.\n- **~2027-03-03 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report, estimated from last year's date. It gives the clearest reading yet of gross margin with little refund help and shows whether sales growth of 5% to 7% continued.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $65.77, which would put the shares well over their 2026-11-05 close of $63.07 and show the market paying for earnings beyond the refunds. A fourth-quarter gross margin above the 49.7% reported for the third quarter would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe shares' main links are company-specific and tied to trade policy. The Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling against IEEPA tariffs created the refunds. The rise to 12.5% on imports from China, the Dominican Republic and Vietnam from 2026-07-24 shows that duty changes reach Weyco's costs directly, and other footwear importers share that policy exposure. Demand depends on middle-income consumers, a pressure management acknowledged on the 2026-11-04 call, and BOGS adds a seasonal link to winter footwear sales.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T00:42:00+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}