{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "WMT", "name": "Walmart Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WMT/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WMT.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a4", "n": 4 }, "current_thesis": "Walmart shares look more likely to trail the S&P 500 over the next three months because brokers already priced in its advertising- and membership-driven profit growth. The 19 November 2026 third-quarter report shows whether results can lift estimates further.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $136.00, past the May 2026 52-week high and most broker targets, which would show the shares leading. A 2026-11-19 report with Walmart U.S. comparable sales above 3% excluding fuel and a full-year adjusted EPS range raised above $2.87 would also prove the call wrong.", "catalyst_date": "2026-11-19", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "consumer-discretionary-rotation" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "FY2027 Q3 Earnings Release", "url": "https://corporate.walmart.com/news/events/fy2027-q3-earnings-release", "date": null }, { "title": "Walmart (WMT) Earnings Preview — Q3 FY2027", "url": "https://www.hudson-labs.com/research/walmart-q3-2027-earnings-preview-wmt-revenue-guidance-key-factors", "date": "2026-10-19" }, { "title": "Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) Price Target Raised to $145.00", "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-walmart-nasdaq-wmt-price-target-raised-to-14500-2026-11-09/", "date": "2026-11-09" }, { "title": "Walmart stock: UBS raises target ahead of earnings", "url": "https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/walmart-stock-ubs-raises-target-ahead-of-earnings/70486271", "date": "2026-11-10" }, { "title": "Walmart earnings growth potential extends beyond headline sales, UBS argues", "url": "https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1101448/walmart-earnings-growth-potential-extends-beyond-headline-sales-ubs-argues-1101448.html", "date": null }, { "title": "Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) Raises FY27 Outlook After Strong Q2", "url": "https://www.valuethemarkets.com/news/walmart-nasdaq-wmt-raises-fy27-outlook-after-strong-q2", "date": "2026-08-21" } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue $187.9 billion, up 5.9%; adjusted EPS $0.81 versus a $0.74 consensus and $0.68 a year earlier.", "source": "Walmart second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings release (8-K)", "as_of": "2026-08-20" }, { "claim": "Walmart U.S. comparable sales up 2.6% excluding fuel (transactions up 1.5%, ticket up 1.1%); U.S. e-commerce up 24%; global advertising up 38%; membership fee revenue up 17%.", "source": "Walmart second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings release (8-K)", "as_of": "2026-08-20" }, { "claim": "Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $2.80–$2.87 from $2.75–$2.85; third-quarter adjusted EPS guided to $0.62–$0.64 with 3%–3.75% constant-currency sales growth.", "source": "Walmart second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings release (8-K)", "as_of": "2026-08-20" }, { "claim": "Consensus third-quarter fiscal 2027 estimates: EPS $0.64 and revenue about $187.2 billion.", "source": "Hudson Labs Walmart third-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings preview", "as_of": "2026-10-19" }, { "claim": "JPMorgan raised its Walmart target to $145 from $125 and UBS to $149 from $130; UBS now applies about 40 times calendar-2028 earnings, up from 35 times.", "source": "MarketBeat 2026-11-09; Proactive Investors", "as_of": "2026-11-09" }, { "claim": "Baird raised its Walmart target to $140 from $120 and BofA Securities to $139 from $126, BofA citing continued market-share gains; BTIG kept $140 on 2026-11-12.", "source": "fiscal.ai 2026-11-11 and 2026-11-12", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "UBS estimates $650 million of extra third-quarter freight expense and expects U.S. comparable sales to meet or modestly beat the 2%–3% expectation.", "source": "AD HOC NEWS 2026-11-10, citing UBS", "as_of": "2026-11-10" }, { "claim": "CTO Suresh Kumar sold 166,342 shares at $123.21 on 2026-10-30 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan; CEO John Furner sold 13,125 shares at an average $120.60 on 2026-10-15.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filings 2026-11-03 and 2026-10-16", "as_of": "2026-11-03" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Consumer Cyclical", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-07-31", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "restated": null, "value_musd": 187937, "yoy_pct": 5.9 }, { "end": "2026-04-30", "filed": "2026-05-29", "restated": null, "value_musd": 177751, "yoy_pct": 7.3 }, { "end": "2026-01-31", "filed": "2026-03-13", "restated": null, "value_musd": 190656, "yoy_pct": 5.6 }, { "end": "2025-10-31", "filed": "2025-12-03", "restated": null, "value_musd": 179496, "yoy_pct": 5.8 }, { "end": "2025-07-31", "filed": "2025-08-29", "restated": null, "value_musd": 177402, "yoy_pct": 4.8 }, { "end": "2025-04-30", "filed": "2025-06-06", "restated": null, "value_musd": 165609, "yoy_pct": 2.5 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "restated": null, "pct": 26.1 }, { "end": "2026-04-30", "filed": "2026-05-29", "restated": null, "pct": 25.1 }, { "end": "2026-01-31", "filed": "2026-03-13", "restated": null, "pct": 24.7 }, { "end": "2025-10-31", "filed": "2025-12-03", "restated": null, "pct": 25 }, { "end": "2025-07-31", "filed": "2025-08-29", "restated": null, "pct": 25.2 }, { "end": "2025-04-30", "filed": "2025-06-06", "restated": null, "pct": 24.9 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "restated": null, "pct": 5 }, { "end": "2026-04-30", "filed": "2026-05-29", "restated": null, "pct": 4.2 }, { "end": "2026-01-31", "filed": "2026-03-13", "restated": null, "pct": 4.6 }, { "end": "2025-10-31", "filed": "2025-12-03", "restated": null, "pct": 3.7 }, { "end": "2025-07-31", "filed": "2025-08-29", "restated": null, "pct": 4.1 }, { "end": "2025-04-30", "filed": "2025-06-06", "restated": null, "pct": 4.3 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "value_musd": 8012 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "four_quarters_end": "2026-07-31", "value_musd": 6366, "four_quarters_musd": 22076 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "first_end": "2025-10-31", "value_musd": 42923 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "first_end": "2025-10-31", "value_musd": 29414 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "first_end": "2025-10-31", "value_musd": 13509 }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "base_end": "2025-07-31", "pct": -0.5 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "value_musd": 11529 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "value_musd": 50411, "composition": "non-current long-term debt plus current maturities plus short-term borrowings" }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "value_musd": -38882 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "not reported" }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "value_musd": 11075 }, "inventory": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "value_musd": 61600 }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-07-31", "filed": "2026-08-28", "value_musd": 98238 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-08-26", "basis_filed": "2026-08-28", "value_musd": 1016233.6 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-08-26", "basis_filed": "2026-08-28", "value_musd": 1055115.6 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-08-26", "basis_filed": "2026-08-28", "multiple": 1.4 }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-08-26", "basis_filed": "2026-08-28", "multiple": 32.7 }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-08-26", "basis_filed": "2026-08-28", "multiple": 46 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-08-26", "basis_filed": "2026-08-28", "multiple": 10.3 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-08-26", "basis_filed": "2026-08-28", "pct": 1.3 } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 0.95, "days_to_cover": 3.6, "change_pct": -7 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 31604051.07, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 2967684321.8, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nWalmart shares look more likely to trail the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Advertising and membership income is lifting profit faster than sales, but brokers have already priced that in. Six of them raised their price targets between 2026-11-09 and 2026-11-11. The third-quarter report on 2026-11-19 shows whether results can push estimates higher still.\n\nThe shares closed at $126.19 on 2026-11-12, below the $130.13 average analyst target MarketBeat reported on 2026-11-09. UBS raised its target to $149 on 2026-11-09 and now values the shares at about 40 times its calendar-2028 earnings estimate, up from 35 times (Proactive Investors). The consensus third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) estimate was $0.64 in Hudson Labs' preview of 2026-10-19. That is the top of Walmart's own $0.62–$0.64 guidance. The price already assumes a quarter at the top of guidance and a modest raise to the full-year range.\n\nThe rating is Low because the shares need a clear upside surprise to beat the index, and the brokers raised that bar in the week before the report. UBS said on 2026-11-10 that the shares may not move much on the report after their recent run (AD HOC NEWS).\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **High-margin income is compounding fast.** Walmart reported on 2026-08-20 that global advertising grew 38% and membership fee revenue grew 17% in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. U.S. e-commerce sales grew 24%.\n- **Full-year guidance went up in August.** On 2026-08-20 Walmart raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS range to $2.80–$2.87 from $2.75–$2.85. It also lifted constant-currency sales growth to 4%–5% and adjusted operating income growth to 7%–8.5%.\n- **Brokers kept raising targets into the report.** JPMorgan raised its target to $145 from $125 and UBS to $149 from $130 on 2026-11-09. Mizuho moved to $135 and BMO Capital raised its target on 2026-11-10. Baird went to $140 from $120 and BofA Securities to $139 from $126 on 2026-11-11, with BofA citing continued market-share gains. BTIG kept a Buy rating and a $140 target on 2026-11-12.\n- **UBS sees room for a guidance raise.** UBS expects U.S. comparable sales growth to meet or modestly beat the 2%–3% Wall Street expectation, and analysts to lift EPS estimates by $0.03–$0.05 after the report (AD HOC NEWS, 2026-11-10).\n- **Delivery and automation reach keeps widening.** Walmart and Zipline agreed on 2026-11-05 to open 300 more drone delivery sites (Benzinga). Benzinga reported a roughly $6 billion Symbotic contract on 2026-10-29 to automate 25 more Walmart U.S. regional distribution centers.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Core U.S. sales growth is slow.** Walmart U.S. comparable sales rose 2.6% excluding fuel in the second quarter, with transactions up 1.5% and average ticket up 1.1%, the company reported on 2026-08-20. The shares fell about 9% on the day of that report, ValueTheMarkets reported on 2026-08-21.\n- **The quarter is guided soft.** Walmart guided third-quarter adjusted EPS to $0.62–$0.64 and constant-currency sales growth to 3%–3.75% on 2026-08-20. The company said moving Flipkart's Big Billion Days sale into the fourth quarter costs more than one percentage point of third-quarter sales growth.\n- **Freight and price cuts press on margin.** UBS estimates $650 million of extra freight expense in the quarter and a 16-basis-point change in U.S. gross margin from a year earlier, against a consensus that assumes flat margins (AD HOC NEWS, 2026-11-10). Hudson Labs' 2026-10-19 preview puts the tariff refunds Walmart is putting back into prices at about $2.9 billion.\n- **Holiday discounting started on 2026-11-12.** The first of three Walmart holiday shopping events opened on 2026-11-12, and the events run to 2026-12-02. Deeper discounts would show more of the tariff-refund help going into prices instead of profit.\n- **Money is moving to cyclical stocks.** Benzinga reported growth sectors leading and defensives trailing on 2026-11-06, and cyclicals leading with defensives trailing on 2026-11-11. Walmart trades with the defensive group.\n- **Executives sold during the rally.** SEC Form 4 filings show Chief Technology Officer Suresh Kumar sold 166,342 shares at $123.21 on 2026-10-30 and Chief Executive John Furner sold 13,125 shares at an average $120.60 on 2026-10-15. Executive Vice President Daniel Bartlett sold 3,346 shares at $124.51 on 2026-11-02. All three sales were under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $126.19 on 2026-11-12, after six sessions between $125.52 (2026-11-06) and $127.72 (2026-11-05). They are up 9.7% over three months from the $115.27 close of 2026-08-14. The close sits above the 50-day moving average of $114.14 and the 200-day moving average of $118.55, both as of 2026-11-12.\n\nTwo levels frame the call. The $130.13 average analyst target (MarketBeat, 2026-11-09) sits just above the last close. The 52-week intraday high of $135.16 on 2026-05-19 sits higher, and the last close is 6.6% below it. A close past that May high would mean buyers paying more than most brokers' targets. The 52-week closing low is $100.61, set on 2025-11-19.\n\nSEC Form 4 filings trace the October climb through executive trades. Latriece Watkins sold at $115.00 on 2026-10-14, Kumar at $123.21 on 2026-10-30, and shares withheld for tax on 2026-11-03 were priced at $127.69.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-15 (est.):** Agent Profiles go live in Walmart customer accounts. Early use shows whether outside AI shopping assistants add orders for Walmart or weaken its own app and advertising reach.\n- **2026-11-19:** Third-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings release (about 6 a.m. Central) and call (7 a.m. Central). Shows whether U.S. comparable sales beat the 2%–3% expectation and whether the $2.80–$2.87 full-year EPS range rises enough to justify the target raises of 2026-11-09 to 2026-11-12.\n- **2026-12-02:** Last of Walmart's three holiday shopping events ends. The depth of holiday discounts shows how much of the tariff-refund margin help goes into lower prices during the fourth quarter.\n- **2026-12-09:** Federal Reserve rate decision. A hike would favor the defensive stocks Walmart trades with; a pause that eases rate fears would favor the cyclical rotation that has left defensives trailing.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $136.00, past the May 2026 52-week high and most broker targets, which would show the shares leading. A 2026-11-19 report with Walmart U.S. comparable sales above 3% excluding fuel and a full-year adjusted EPS range raised above $2.87 would also prove the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nWalmart has traded with consumer staples and other defensive sectors in the October–November 2026 rotation. On 2026-11-10, when all 11 sectors fell, consumer staples were among the three that fell least (Benzinga). On 2026-11-06 and 2026-11-11, when growth or cyclical sectors led, defensives trailed. Federal Reserve rate expectations feed the same rotation, which ties the shares to the 2026-12-09 rate decision. Company news links Walmart to private partner Zipline and to listed partner Symbotic, whose roughly $6 billion contract depends on Walmart's distribution-center build-out. Benzinga put Walmart's market value at $995.84 billion on 2026-11-09, so it carries real weight in both the S&P 500 and staples indexes.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:59:46+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }