{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "WOLF",
  "name": "Wolfspeed, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WOLF/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WOLF.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Wolfspeed's first revenue beat since its Chapter 11 exit and a narrower gross-margin loss are real gains, but cash burn and an unfunded $1.5 billion loan make the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500; the fiscal second-quarter report decides it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $35.28, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and the market rewarding the margin recovery. A fiscal second-quarter non-GAAP gross margin at or above breakeven, or revenue above the $175 million top of guidance, would point the same way.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "semiconductors-analog"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Press Release: Wolfspeed Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027",
      "url": "https://www.itiger.com/news/2681067903",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Wolfspeed Q1 2027: First Revenue Beat Since Chapter 11 Exit",
      "url": "https://247wallst.com/cards/wolfspeed-q1-2027-earnings-wolf-01m6m77mj4wd4m4zke4sx3xcsv",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "Wolfspeed Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027",
      "url": "https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20713696",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue was $155.0 million versus $196.8 million a year earlier; non-GAAP gross margin was (13)% versus (26)% a year earlier; GAAP gross margin was (22)%.",
      "source": "Wolfspeed Q1 FY27 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q1 non-GAAP loss per share was $(2.03) against a $(1.99) consensus estimate; GAAP net loss was $143.8 million, or $(2.61) per share.",
      "source": "Wolfspeed Q1 FY27 earnings release; Benzinga estimate comparison",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q2 fiscal 2027 guidance: revenue $155-175 million, non-GAAP gross margin improving sequentially toward breakeven, non-GAAP operating expenses $65-69 million.",
      "source": "Wolfspeed Q1 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash, equivalents and short-term investments were $995.1 million; free cash flow was negative $96.5 million on operating cash flow of negative $84.2 million.",
      "source": "Wolfspeed Q1 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Conditional commitment for a senior secured loan of up to $1.5 billion, 30-year term, from the Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital, with warrants for up to 7.5% of fully diluted equity issued as tranches fund.",
      "source": "Wolfspeed 8-K Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-10-07"
    },
    {
      "claim": "TD Cowen kept a Hold rating on Wolfspeed and lowered its price target to $23.",
      "source": "TD Cowen note, reported in company news feed",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Capital expenditures were $10.6 million in the quarter, down from $104 million a year earlier.",
      "source": "247WallSt report on Wolfspeed Q1 FY27 results",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-27",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-27",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 155,
              "yoy_pct": -21.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-28",
              "filed": "2026-08-20",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 149.6,
              "yoy_pct": -24.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-29",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 150.2,
              "yoy_pct": -19
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-28",
              "filed": "2026-02-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 168.5,
              "yoy_pct": -6.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-28",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 196.8,
              "yoy_pct": 1.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-29",
              "filed": "2025-08-26",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 197,
              "yoy_pct": -1.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-27",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -21.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-28",
              "filed": "2026-08-20",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -24.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-29",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -26.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-28",
              "filed": "2026-02-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -46.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-28",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -39.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-29",
              "filed": "2025-08-26",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -13
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-27",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -72.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-28",
              "filed": "2026-08-20",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -77.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-29",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -76.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-28",
              "filed": "2026-02-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -94
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-28",
              "filed": "2025-11-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -82
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-29",
              "filed": "2025-08-26",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -295.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -143.7
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-27",
          "value_musd": -143.8,
          "four_quarters_musd": -559.6
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-28",
          "value_musd": -265
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-28",
          "value_musd": 83.5
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-28",
          "value_musd": -348.5
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-28",
          "pct": -64.8
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 995.1
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 1680.6,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -685.5
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 62.9,
          "yoy_pct": -28.9
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 109.3
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 203.5
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-27",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 804
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 1330.4
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 2015.9
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 3.2
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 1.7
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "pct": -26.2
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 51.09,
      "days_to_cover": 4.2,
      "change_pct": 2
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nWolfspeed's first-quarter report improved the picture, but the shares are still more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Revenue beat estimates and the gross-margin loss narrowed, yet the company burned cash and the $1.5 billion government loan is still conditional. The fiscal second-quarter report, due in early 2027, settles whether the margin recovery is real.\n\nOn 2026-11-04 Wolfspeed reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue of $155.0 million, against $196.8 million a year earlier and a $150.2 million analyst estimate cited by Benzinga. Non-GAAP gross margin was (13)%, compared with (26)% a year earlier. GAAP gross margin was (22)%. Non-GAAP loss per share was $(2.03), against a $(1.99) consensus estimate. GAAP net loss was $143.8 million.\n\nGuidance for the second quarter is revenue of $155-175 million, with non-GAAP gross margin improving toward breakeven and non-GAAP operating expenses of $65-69 million. Cash, equivalents and short-term investments fell to $995.1 million. Free cash flow was negative $96.5 million. All figures are from the company's 2026-11-04 release.\n\nThe shares closed at $27.68 on 2026-11-11. That is above the $23 target TD Cowen set on 2026-11-05 when it kept its Hold rating. The price already assumes the margin recovery continues and the loan closes.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Revenue beat after four weaker quarters.** Revenue of $155.0 million on 2026-11-04 was above the midpoint of the $140-160 million guide. 247WallSt called it the first beat since the Chapter 11 exit and the end of four straight sequential declines.\n- **Gross margin is moving the right way.** Non-GAAP gross margin of (13)% compares with (20)% in the fiscal fourth quarter reported on 2026-08-19. Management guides the second quarter toward breakeven.\n- **Capital spending has dropped.** Capital expenditures were $10.6 million in the quarter, down from $104 million a year earlier, per 247WallSt on 2026-11-04.\n- **Government financing is on the table.** The 8-K of 2026-10-07 describes a conditional commitment for a senior secured loan of up to $1.5 billion with a 30-year term from the Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital.\n- **Long-term supply agreements.** Company news in October reported multiyear silicon carbide (SiC) supply agreements with BorgWarner (2026-10-28) and Infineon Technologies (2026-10-15). No contract values or volumes were disclosed.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Cash is burning.** Free cash flow was negative $96.5 million in the first quarter, and cash fell to $995.1 million from $1.1 billion at the 2026-08-19 year-end report.\n- **The loan is not yet money.** The company's 2026-11-04 release still describes the commitment as dependent on due diligence, definitive agreements and government approvals.\n- **Warrants and resales add shares.** The proposed terms give the government warrants for up to 7.5% of fully diluted equity as tranches fund, per the 8-K. A June 2026 resale prospectus registers up to 24,072,041 shares for selling holders.\n- **Revenue is still falling year over year.** First-quarter revenue of $155.0 million was below the $196.8 million of the year-earlier quarter.\n- **Losses remain wide.** The GAAP net loss was $143.8 million, or $(2.61) per share, and the non-GAAP loss per share missed the consensus estimate by $0.04.\n- **The market reaction was negative at first.** The shares closed at $22.79 on 2026-11-04 and $20.36 on 2026-11-05, the 52-week closing low being $14.80 on 2026-03-30. TD Cowen cut its target to $23 on 2026-11-05.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $27.68 on 2026-11-11. They rebounded from $20.36 on 2026-11-05 through closes of $23.79 (2026-11-06), $26.12 (2026-11-09) and $26.23 (2026-11-10).\n\nThe close is above the 50-day average of $26.32 and below the 200-day average of $30.5, both as of 2026-11-11. The 52-week high is $80.82 (intraday, 2026-05-22), and the last close is 65.8% below it. The three-month change is −12.2%, against a close of $31.51 on 2026-08-13.\n\nInsider filings show small activity. Six directors each received a 7,415-share grant on 2026-10-27, per SEC Form 4 filings. The chief financial officer and chief operating officer had shares withheld for tax at $25.91 on 2026-10-15.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02-04 (est.):** Q2 fiscal 2027 results (quarter ending late December 2026). Tests the guide of $155-175 million revenue and non-GAAP gross margin near breakeven, and shows whether cash burn is shrinking from the $96.5 million free cash outflow of Q1.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $35.28, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and the market rewarding the margin recovery. A fiscal second-quarter non-GAAP gross margin at or above breakeven, or revenue above the $175 million top of guidance, would point the same way.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nWolfspeed trades with other SiC and power-semiconductor makers and responds to electric-vehicle demand news. Its AI data center product line and defense-linked financing add company-specific drivers. The 2026-10-07 loan announcement and the 2026-11-04 results moved the shares more than sector news did, and the 2026-11-06 rebound followed a close of $20.36 with no company filing of note.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T04:20:43+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}