{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "YEXT",
  "name": "Yext, Inc.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/YEXT/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/YEXT.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Post-gap recovery has extended to $5.73 (2026-08-07), +42.5% in three months, into the $6–$7 band where support broke — on no new fundamental datapoint since the 2026-06-02 Q1 FY2027 print. The answer-engine repositioning is still absent from ARR; the Q2 FY2027 print (~2026-09-08, est.) is the first scheduled test.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $5.00 forfeits the July recovery shelf and re-opens the post-June-gap range toward $3.45; secondary confirmation is the Q2 FY2027 print (~2026-09-08, est.) again showing organic ex-Hearsay ARR contracting from $440.8M.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-09-08",
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-enterprise-software",
    "cyclical-industrials",
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Fiscal year ends January 31; the upcoming Q2 FY2027 print covers the quarter ended 2026-07-31.",
    "Hearsay Systems (up to $220M) closed 2025-08-01, so headline YoY comparisons only begin lapping the acquisition from Q3 FY2027.",
    "The low-multiple framing is non-GAAP; trailing GAAP P/E stood at 70.3 in the 2026-08-07 snapshot.",
    "No Q2 FY2027 earnings date was posted on the IR press-release page as of 2026-08-09; the September date is a third-party estimate.",
    "Analyst coverage is thin at roughly three firms, so a single revision moves the consensus target materially."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nThe frame from July holds: Yext is a digital-presence-management vendor (local listings, store pages, reviews) arguing it owns the structured-data plumbing that feeds AI answer engines, with Scout as the vehicle. What has changed since then is the tape, not the fundamentals. Price ran from roughly $5.09 (2026-07-10 close) to $5.73 (2026-08-07), a +42.5% three-month return, and now sits at the lower lip of the $6–$7 band where support broke on the way down. The last operating datapoint is still Q1 FY2027, reported 2026-06-02. The next one — Q2 FY2027, estimated around 2026-09-08 and not yet confirmed by the company — is the first scheduled test of whether organic, ex-Hearsay ARR has stopped shrinking. Between now and then there is no new information scheduled to arrive.\n\n## Bull Case\n- Q1 FY2027 (quarter ended 2026-04-30, reported 2026-06-02): revenue ~$107.9M, ARR $440.8M, adjusted EBITDA $26.9M (~25% margin), non-GAAP EPS $0.15. The business funds its own repositioning.\n- Float shrink is documented and dated: the modified Dutch auction tender closed with final results 2026-03-20, retiring 24.3M shares for ~$140M, with $100M added to the open-market authorization. Shares outstanding stood at 100.25M in the 2026-08-07 snapshot.\n- The AEO product cadence is on the record, not just in the pitch deck: 2026-05-18, Scout Visibility Intelligence opened to partners via MCP and API; 2026-06-17, \"Yext Opens Full Platform for Trusted Agentic Marketing Execution.\"\n- The advance has stair-stepped rather than spiked — RSI(14) at 56.4 on 2026-08-07 after a 42.5% three-month move means the recovery has not yet consumed its own momentum.\n- Third-party target aggregators compiled in early August put 12-month consensus in the $6.67–$7.50 range on a panel of roughly three covering firms, above the 2026-08-07 close of $5.73.\n\n## Bear Case\n- Trailing GAAP P/E was 70.3 at the 2026-08-07 snapshot against a $574.4M market cap. The \"cheap software\" framing rests entirely on adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS; reported GAAP earnings are thin.\n- Headline growth is bought growth. Hearsay Systems (up to $220M, closed 2025-08-01) drove FY2026's ~6% revenue increase; excluding it, revenue fell ~2%.\n- Market cap is down ~41.6% year over year at the same snapshot, and price sits 37.4% below the $9.16 52-week high. A 42.5% bounce off a gap-down repairs damage without producing a new high.\n- Company news flow has thinned. The last substantive release was 2026-06-17; the only July item was a board appointment (Cynthia Paul, 2026-07-07). The re-rating since mid-July has run on no fresh fundamental information.\n- The September earnings date is unconfirmed — no date appears on the IR press-release page as of 2026-08-09. The estimate comes from third-party screens and prior-year cadence.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- Last close $5.73 (2026-08-07). 52-week high $9.16 (-37.4%); three-month return +42.5%; RSI(14) 56.4.\n- The 2026-06-02 print gapped shares ~18% to roughly $3.45, just above the $3.27 52-week low. The path since — $3.45 to ~$5.09 (2026-07-10) to $5.73 — has recovered about two-thirds of the twelve-month decline's final leg without reclaiming the $6–$7 shelf where support failed.\n- The July consolidation near $5.00–$5.10 is the reference floor for this recovery leg. Overhead supply begins immediately above the current close.\n- **Life-cycle: MATURING.** The answer-engine-optimization idea is broadly covered across enterprise software; the price is still working; the flow of Yext-specific news has moderated to one product release (2026-06-17) and one governance release (2026-07-07), with nothing since. It is not accelerating — there has been no cluster of upgrades or fresh headline set since the June target cuts — and it is not dead, because the structure held above $3.27/$3.45 and has since built a higher base.\n- Crowding and positioning observables: RSI 56.4 after a 42.5% three-month advance; an estimated earnings date inside 30 days; a share count falling through buyback rather than rising through issuance (24.3M retired March 2026, 100.25M outstanding at the 2026-08-07 snapshot); and coverage thin enough that the freshest third-party item in the first week of August was an algorithmic rotational-strategy note dated 2026-08-05.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n- **~2026-08-20 (est.)** — Earnings-date announcement (press release / 8-K). None had been posted to the IR press-release page as of 2026-08-09; such notices typically land two to three weeks ahead of the print and fix the binary date.\n- **~2026-09-08 (est.)** — Q2 FY2027 results, covering the quarter ended 2026-07-31. Third-party screens estimate 2026-09-08; prior-year cadence puts the window at 2026-09-03 to 2026-09-08.\n- **~2026-09-08 (est.)** — With that print: the updated ARR figure against $440.8M at Q1, and whether management discloses an organic versus Hearsay-acquired split. The quarter ended 2026-07-31 is the last one before year-over-year comparisons begin lapping the 2025-08-01 Hearsay close.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n- The variable is organic ARR. A Q2 FY2027 print that separates ex-Hearsay ARR and shows it growing, with a Scout contribution management is willing to size, would move this from multiple repair toward a genuine re-rating. The same print showing continued organic contraction leaves a 70x trailing GAAP multiple sitting on a shrinking base.\n- On price: a weekly close below $5.00 forfeits the July shelf around $5.00–$5.10 and puts the post-June-gap range back in play, with $3.45 and the $3.27 52-week low as the reference floors beneath it.\n- Upside confirmation runs the other way: a weekly close through $7.00 clears the band where support broke and takes price above the highest aggregator consensus target.\n- If the estimated early-September date passes without an organic-growth disclosure, the thesis has no scheduled test until the following quarter, and the current price rests on the June-quarter numbers alone.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- Idiosyncratic risk dominates. The largest single move of the past year was the ~18% earnings gap on 2026-06-02; index beta explains little of this name's variance, and the September print concentrates that again.\n- At ~$574M market cap it sits in small-cap software, inheriting rate sensitivity and liquidity-driven drawdowns that have nothing to do with the AEO story.\n- Buyback mechanics decouple per-share metrics from operations: 24.3M shares retired in March 2026 against 100.25M outstanding at the 2026-08-07 snapshot means EPS comparisons across FY2026 and FY2027 are not like-for-like.\n- The theme and the company are not the same exposure. The shift that would grow Scout — assistants absorbing search sessions — is the same shift that erodes the store-page and local-listings base producing most of today's revenue.\n- Hearsay ties a slice of revenue to financial-services and insurance advisor headcount and compliance budgets, a spending cycle distinct from general marketing software.",
  "first_seen": "2026-07-12",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-09T19:09:48+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-09",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}