# orbyd — full index for LLMs > A frontier model reading the US tape. Continuous market intelligence built on frontier language models. Per-ticker dossiers, regime-tagged journal, weekly macro view, sector rotation, live watchlist. Open methodology, every read dated, every call scored in public. Source URL prefix: https://orbyd.app Last content update: 2026-06-14 (Europe/Berlin). ## Dossiers ### HUT — Hut 8 Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HUT/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a0 · Status: HELD Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds Thesis: The legacy pivot bitcoin miner re-rating into AI-data-center landlord has moved from thesis to financed fact. On 2026-06-04 the subsidiary Beacon Point DC LLC priced $4.25B of 6.129% investment-grade senior secured notes due 2042, non-recourse to the parent, fully funding the first 352-MW phase of the Beacon Point campus in Nueces County, Texas (the same site as the ~$9.8B Corpus Christi lease disclosed 2026-05-06). The financing matters more than another headline: it funds the buildout with… Invalidation trigger: a daily close below the published invalidation level --- ### SHLS — Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SHLS/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a0 · Status: HELD Themes: industrial-power-ai, solar-storage-decarb, data-center-power Thesis: Shoals is a utility-scale solar electrical balance-of-systems (EBOS) supplier the combiner boxes, wiring harnesses, and connectors that tie a solar/storage field together being traded as a 2nd-order AI-power-demand play: data centers pull more grid load → utility-scale solar + battery storage absorbs part of the buildout → Shoals sells the EBOS underneath it. The narrative leg was lit in early May by a tight analyst cluster around the Q1 2026 print (~2026-05-05) and the Tennessee mega-facility… Invalidation trigger: a daily close below the published invalidation level --- ### TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSM/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a0 · Status: HELD Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: The foundry-monopoly story is shifting from demand confirmation to pricing capture. The April Q1 print (rev $35.90B vs $35.50B est, EPS $3.49 vs $3.31, Q2 guide midpoint ~$39.6B = +38% YoY, reported 2026-04-16) settled the demand leg. The 06-01/06-02 reports of a 15% price hike on 3nm for 2026 with further hikes flagged for 2027 open the pricing leg. The cost base does not rise 15% in lockstep, so that increment drops toward gross margin as scarcity rent, stacked on a 3nm mix already carrying… Invalidation trigger: a daily close below the published invalidation level --- ### OKTA — Okta, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OKTA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: HELD Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Thesis: Identity-software momentum continuation: OKTA gapped to a 52-week high on a Q1 FY27 beat and FY27 guide raise (2026-05-29). Theme classifier still ACCELERATING (0.78), but the catalyst is now behind it the entire sell-side PT-raise cluster is dated 2026-05-29 and Mizuho already cut to Neutral (06-02). Setup is maturing, not fresh. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the post-earnings breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA (~$108), OR the cybersecurity/identity theme classifier flips off ACCELERATING, OR a peer (CRWD/PANW/ZS) guides demand down, OR a second sell-side downgrade follows Mizuho's 06-02 cut. --- ### SNOW — Snowflake Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNOW/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Thesis: A narrative accelerating on FUNDAMENTALS: Q1 FY27 product rev $1.33B +34% (re-accel from +30%), RPO +38%, FY27 guide raised to $5.84B, Cortex Code fastest-ramping product ever on the $200M Anthropic deal. Driver is theme acceleration the AI-enterprise-data cluster (HPE/MRVL/DELL) breaking out together, SNOW the cleanest software expression. The two prior avoids awaited the published invalidation level pullback that never came; price held near highs, and with the theme ACCELERATING deferring cluster-confirmed strength is the #1 leak so we fund it. MEDIUM not HIGH: next catalyst ~3 months out, volume light (0.63x). Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the published invalidation level loses the post-earnings gap shelf / rising 20-EMA, fills the gap and breaks the inflection re-rate structure. --- ### BFLY — Butterfly Network, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BFLY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: HELD Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-06-18 Thesis: AI point-of-care ultrasound narrative accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue +25% YoY ($26.5M), Butterfly Embedded chip-licensing +147%, first FDA-cleared blind-sweep AI tool, Compass AI and HomeCare commercializing through 2026. But the CBO sold ~$1.9M into the June social-velocity spike and price stalled below the $5.72 high fundamentals accelerating, the easy price gain likely already spent. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the ~$4.40 breakout base (loses the rising 50-EMA structure off the $1.33 low), OR Q2 2026 revenue below the $27M guide floor / any cut to the $117–121M FY guide signals the June move was a fading retail spike, not a durable narrative leg. --- ### PL — Planet Labs PBC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: space-satellite Next catalyst: 2026-06-12 Thesis: Record Q1 FY27 beat (6/4: rev $94.15M vs $89.85M est, adj EPS $(0.03) vs $(0.04), FY27 guide nudged to $425-441M) and the stock sold off, then sank again 6/5 as a $1.5B equity shelf was filed and the space cluster rolled over on SpaceX-IPO fatigue (Redwire/Momentus -20%). Theme SATURATED (UFO ETF $1B AUM). Strong fundamentals into broken, rolled-over price structure = value trap. No-touch until ~$42 reclaims and a base rebuilds. Invalidation trigger: Holding below the lost ~$42 breakout shelf keeps the structure rolled-over (no-touch); a daily close below the ~$32 post-earnings low confirms the downtrend toward DEAD-theme treatment. A long only re-validates on a weekly reclaim of $42+ on volume with a higher low. --- ### APLD — Applied Digital Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/APLD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds Thesis: BTC-miner→AI-infra pivot structurally de-risked: backlog ~$31B after Polaris Forge 3 ($7.5B/15yr take-or-pay, 300MW, capacity past 1.2GW) on top of CoreWeave 400MW (~$11B) and Polaris Forge 2 ($5B). Neocloud theme ACCELERATING; stock pulled back ~12% into the ~$40–44 20-EMA retest cleaner fresh-entry R:R than the late-May chase, but 26 Buy/0 Sell analyst crowding plus ATM dilution overhang cap conviction at MEDIUM. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below rising 20-EMA (~$44) → first warning; daily close below ~$40 May lease-breakout shelf on volume → structural crack; daily close below ~$34 April pivot base → BTC→AI re-rate failed, thesis dead. Any 8-K disclosing an ATM/equity raise → de-risk regardless of price. --- ### ASML — ASML Holding N.V. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASML/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: ASML is the cleanest second-derivative on the AI-capex super-cycle: EUV monopoly, CEO's "supply-limited market for quite a while" framing (5/20), High-NA first product data on logic AND DRAM later in 2026, JPM Overweight PT $2,200 (6/3). Theme is classifier-ACCELERATING with cluster confirmation and 7 rules fired (momentum top-25%, +19pp vs SPX 20d, near-52w-high structure, RSI 67.6, StockTwits +87%). ASML is the quality expression, not diversification vs TSM. Entry is a vertical near-52w-high, not the pullback-with-volume gate. Avoid: add AI-infra via a non-correlated name, or take ASML only on a 20/50-DMA pullback once the TSM cluster slot frees. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-week EMA (50% scale-out) or Q2 guide worse than −18% sequential confirming demand softening; on entry side, do not act until a 20/50-DMA pullback with RVOL>1.5 while not holding a correlated foundry name (TSM). --- ### ASTS — AST SpaceMobile, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASTS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: space-satellite Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: The setup flipped this week. For three weeks ASTS traded as the highest-beta public proxy for the unannounced SpaceX IPO, not on its own fundamentals UFO ETF crossed $1B AUM (2026-05-28), a Defiance 2X leveraged single-stock ETF on ASTS launched mid-run (2026-05-21), and the stock gapped +7% premarket on pure SpaceX buzz with no company news (2026-05-26), printing RSI 82.8. That bid has now been cut at the source: S&P killed the SpaceX index-inclusion catalyst (2026-06-05), and the entire proxy… Invalidation trigger: retry at the next scheduled review --- ### AVGO — Broadcom Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AVGO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: Q2 FY26 (2026-06-03) printed a monster $30B AI bookings vs $10.8B shipped (2.8x book-to-bill), $100B+ FY27 AI guide but AVGO sold the news (-12% on 2026-06-04) and kept falling into a rate-driven risk-off. Fundamentals ACCELERATING, tape CORRECTING; the buyable structure is the higher-low that holds, not the knife. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 2026-06-04/05 post-Q2 reaction low AND under the 20-EMA (sell-the-news becomes a structural de-rate); OR FY27 AI revenue guide later cut below $100B; OR a confirmed Google/Meta next-gen TPU socket loss to MRVL. --- ### IREN — IREN Limited URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IREN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: BTC-miner→AI-neocloud pivot resolved bull: 5-yr $3.4B Microsoft AI-cloud contract + $3.65B investment-grade GPU financing (closed 6/1) + Dell $1.6B Blackwell supply killed both the named-tenant and dilution gates. Theme ACCELERATING, PTs ramping to $79–$99. But 2026-06-04 printed the first red day after an extended, retail-hot run entry chases unless the 5/26 breakout gap holds. Invalidation trigger: Weekly or decisive daily close back below the 2026-05-26 breakout gap on >1.5x avg volume (failed breakout); OR disclosure of a Microsoft contract delay/descope; OR a new ATM equity raise >$300M priced below spot (signals the $3.65B IG facility was insufficient). --- ### LITE — Lumentum Holdings Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LITE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Optical-AI picks-and-shovels: the post-print -8.45% sell-the-news is fully reversed LITE reclaimed its pre-print high on a 2026-06-01 +7% signal bar at $866.97, riding Nasdaq-100 inclusion and the 2026-06-02 AI-chip rally to fresh records. Theme ACCELERATING with cluster confirmation, but REX 2X ETF + photonics-ETF debut flag late-stage saturation, making this a late, crowded momentum entry after a ~1,000% year not a fat pitch. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$840 forfeits the 2026-06-01 $866.97 signal-bar reclaim; OR a weekly close under the rising 20-EMA; OR a peer optical name (COHR/MRVL/AAOI) losing its 50-day while LITE diverges lower any one flips momentum to broken. --- ### PLTR — Palantir Technologies Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PLTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Commercial-flywheel re-acceleration (Google Cloud Marketplace + Dell on-prem + multi-vertical deal cadence into June) plus Trump 'trusted partner' 60-day clock but price was rejected at the 200-DMA (2026-06-03) on a MATURING, publicly-saturated theme. Wedbush reiterated $230 (2026-06-05). Trade the reclaim, not the rejection. Invalidation trigger: Failure to reclaim the 200-DMA within ~2-3 weeks plus a daily close below the early-June profit-taking swing low on >1.5x avg volume; OR a DIA ruling formally barring PLTR from the contract bid; OR Q2 US commercial growth decel <45% YoY (~Aug). --- ### SYRE — Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SYRE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, tl1a-immunology, ibd-i-and-i-pipeline, binary-catalyst-readout Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Accelerating TL1A/I&I platform: SPY001 Part A de-risked UC (Robarts −9.2, p<0.0001); next leg is SPY002 "mid-2026" open-label Part A induction. Abivax obefazimod's Phase 3 malignancy signal (6/4) cleared an oral UC competitor and drove DB to $115 (Citi $97, Stifel $107) while stock ~$75 near 52wk-high $78.80. Binary-readout name into the print. Invalidation trigger: SPY002 "mid-2026" (~2026-06-30 est.) Part A induction shows weak within-patient efficacy or class-discordant TL1A safety; OR weekly close below the $62 April offering shelf on >2x 20d avg volume; OR Merck tulisokibart (ATLAS-UC) or Roche RVT-3101 prints superior anti-TL1A Phase 3 data. --- ### TSEM — Tower Semiconductor Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSEM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Next catalyst: 2026-05-12 Thesis: Specialty-foundry AI-recovery confirmed by the 2026-05-13 Q1 beat (op profit ~doubled, GM up, Q2 guide raised, +17%) but the catalyst is fully digested, sell-side caught up ($300–335 PTs), news dry 3 weeks, theme registry narrowed to one tag. The ACCELERATING leg is maturing. No catalyst inside 30d; next binary is the Q2 print ~early Aug. Clean re-entry wants a higher-low / 20-EMA pullback, not a 2-month-early chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the ~$255 May-13 earnings-gap base (failed post-beat breakout — verify exact 20-EMA before sizing), or a Q2 guide walk-back / RF-SOI inventory-reset signal from QCOM/AVGO handset commentary. --- ### AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AAOI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: Optical ACCEL but secondary to cleaner COHR; +400% YTD parabola, $600M ATM supply ceiling, ETF/MEME-saturated, ~2.2x consensus PT. Peak-sentiment chase, no catalyst ~8wks WATCH. --- ### AEHR — Aehr Test Systems URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AEHR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Next catalyst: 2026-07-07 Thesis: Pivot to hyperscale AI-ASIC package-level burn-in validated by a record $41M follow-on order and >$92M H2 FY26 bookings, but the tape is blowoff: +400%+ YTD, ATH $113.20 on the 2026-06-02 William Blair day, catalyst now passed, insiders selling. Ai-chip theme ACCELERATING, this expression SATURATED no low-risk entry at the highs; the $80-90 shelf retest into the ~July 7 Q4 print is the setup. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the $80 breakout shelf (opens $60-65 base), or Q4/FY26 print (~2026-07-07) that walks back the non-GAAP profitability guide or shows H2 bookings momentum stalling. --- ### AMD — Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-06-25 Thesis: AI-chip ACCELERATING but (rank 34%), parabolic ATH chase, ARK persistent distribution dossier wants the ~$420 shelf retest. --- ### AMSC — American Superconductor Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMSC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: grid-power-transmission Thesis: Grid/advanced-conductor arms dealer to data-center power; backlog +40% YoY to ~$280M still accelerating, but the grid-power-transmission theme cooled to MATURING and the 2026-05-28 beat sold off on a soft Q1 margin guide ($0.17 vs $0.24 est). Price structure broken near $46.67 — wait for a weekly higher low above $40, don't chase the knife. Next binary ~early Aug. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $40 (loses post-earnings shelf + April base pivot; opens path to the 200-DMA / $24.87 low). Also dead if the early-Aug Q1 print shows 12-mo backlog contracting from ~$280M or grid orders rolling over, or grid-power-transmission downgrades to SATURATED/DEAD. --- ### AXTI — AXT Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AXTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: InP-substrate supplier to the AI optical-interconnect build (Q1 InP >50% of rev, record $100M backlog, Q2 guided to first profit in years). But the tape broke: -16% on 6/5 to ~$89 on a >$22M CEO insider sale, -38% off the 5/26 $143 ATH, losing the $90 base. Narrative intact, structure distributing stand aside until a higher-low base reforms above $100. Invalidation trigger: Lost the $90 base on 6/5 (-16% day, >$22M CEO insider sale); no buyable setup until a reclaim and hold above $100 on normalizing volume with a higher-low. Thesis breaks outright on Q2 (~7/29) revenue below the $34M guide, InP backlog falling QoQ from the $100M record, or denial of pending US InP export permits. --- ### CCJ — Cameco Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CCJ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: nuclear-uranium Next catalyst: 2026-07-01 Thesis: Q1 confirmed both legs bullish (adj EBITDA C$509M, Westinghouse C$122M, FY guide held), but price won't follow: the early-June bounce stalled at $114 and reversed -6.6% to $106.44 on 2026-06-05 a lower high rejected at the ~$115 — reclaim zone while spot firmed near $86.5/lb. Theme MATURING, structure broken; probe-only until a real higher-low reclaim of $115 on volume. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $100 (loses the May ~$104 low), or uranium spot back under $80/lb, or a Q2 guide cut to the 19.5–21.5M lb range on the 2026-07-31 print. A second rejection at ~$115 confirms the lower high and voids the reclaim setup. --- ### CEG — Constellation Energy Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CEG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: industrial-power-ai Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Nuclear-baseload-for-AI is the crowded, mainstream leg of industrial-power-ai. Q1 beat (2026-05-11) closed -3%, Third Point fully exited, and an 11M-share secondary cleared at $281 (closed 2026-06-02). A FERC waiver (2026-06-02) pulled the TMI/Crane restart toward 2027 and popped CEG +2.6%, but that's the existing Microsoft deal advancing, not a new leg. No fresh entry near $281 without a pullback that holds or a new hyperscaler PPA. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $240 (200-DMA + post-Calpine gap fill); OR FERC rejects the Amazon/Susquehanna co-location (docket ER24-2172) or PJM slips Crane interconnection to 2031; OR 2026 adj-EPS guide cut below the reaffirmed $11 floor at Q2 (~2026-08-05). --- ### COIN — Coinbase Global, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COIN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: digital-assets-fintech-payments Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: 1.5–2.5x BTC-beta proxy mid-bear-leg, not a dip: BTC sub-$63K, −26% on the month, 11-day ETF outflow streak (−$3.45B), MSTR now selling. COIN ~$174 (6/4) sliced under the $180 Piper anchor; Baird just cut its PT to $142 (6/5). Falling knife no long until BTC reclaims ~$68K and COIN closes >$185 weekly. Invalidation trigger: Long re-arms only on BTC reclaim of ~$68K AND a COIN weekly close above $185 (back over the $180 bear anchor + 20-EMA), ideally with 3+ days of net-positive spot-ETF flows. BTC losing $60K opens $55K and a weekly close below the $142 Baird floor pushes the no-touch zone lower; do not buy oversold RSI alone. --- ### CRCL — Circle Internet Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRCL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: digital-assets-fintech-payments Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Mastercard USDC settlement catalyst (6/03) printed and is being faded the same release added Ripple's RLUSD, commoditizing the 'only rail' thesis. Theme model flipped SATURATED (6/05) and Mizuho cut its PT to $85 the next day. A sold-the-news setup into a wall of neutral ratings and Tiger Global's full exit. Watch, do not chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $77 (Compass Point magnet) on above-average volume; OR failure to reclaim $85 (Mizuho PT) within two weeks of the Mastercard catalyst, confirming sold-the-news; OR Q2'26 print shows no USDC settlement-volume traction from Mastercard/Nium. --- ### CRWV — CoreWeave, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRWV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Post-Q1 beat-and-fade mean-reverted from the mid-$130s April peak to a ~$104 post-print low; now a basing/recovery attempt on fresh dated catalysts (Vera Rubin NVL72 first-validation 6/1, BNP Paribas Outperform $192 init 6/2, enlarged NVDA stake, 6/5 NBIS-comp upside spotlight). No print until Aug 11 = no binary overhang, but CRWV is still the theme laggard funded with junk-rated paper. Improving, not yet a clean breakout LOW probe. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$104 post-Q1 low (5/20) = base failed, opening the DA Davidson $100 → Bernstein $67 air pocket. Also invalidating: the $850M data-center junk bond prices wider than the 9.750% notes (credit refusing the recovery), or a second consecutive cohort guide-down at the Aug 11 print. --- ### HOOD — Robinhood Markets, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HOOD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: prediction-markets-sports-betting Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: Crypto-financials SATURATED (0.15), faded its own PDT good news to a weak close ~47% below ATH, CLARITY odds cut 90%→60% broken structure, no base. Invalidation trigger: revisit on a weekly close back above the 20-EMA (mid-$80s) reclaiming the ~$87-88 higher-low shelf, or a CLARITY Act floor-vote scheduling --- ### INTC — Intel Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INTC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-04-27 Thesis: AI-chip theme but momentum LAGGARD (rank 88%), NVDA ARM-PC structural x86 threat + 108x P/E contested thesis, weakest cluster name. --- ### IONQ — IonQ, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IONQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: quantum-computing Thesis: Gov-capital re-rate (2026-05-21 CHIPS $2B + equity stakes) and the 2026-05-06 Q1 blowout are already priced; price tagged $63 on 2026-05-26 then rolled, -8% on 2026-06-05. Quantinuum's 2026-06-04 IPO faded market no longer paying up for quantum supply. MATURING/froth-deflating; current price is late-cycle digestion, not a discovery entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (refresh — no live feed); Q2 revenue sequentially below Q1 $64.67M or any FY guide cut from $260–270M; or IONQ excluded from final $2B CHIPS equity-stake awards while peers are included (unwinds the 2026-05-26 pop). --- ### META — Meta Platforms, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/META/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: Monetization-beyond-ads leg (Business Agent Platform, $200/mo Hatch) is still young, but the live tape flipped to capex-dilution fear: a 6/5 report of a tens-of-$B equity raise to fund AI infra triggered an investor dump ("drunken sailors") and CNBC-visible institutional trims. The CapEx-discipline thesis is under direct attack; theme MATURING into a crashing broad market. Invalidation trigger: Confirmed multi-tens-of-$B equity raise priced at a discount that the tape sells (validates the capex-dilution bear case); OR weekly close below the 20-EMA on rising volume; OR Q2 (~2026-07-29) ad rev <+15% YoY vs Q4 +21%; OR custom-silicon theme (AVGO/MRVL) breaks into SATURATED. --- ### MSTR — Strategy Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MSTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: digital-assets-fintech-payments Next catalyst: 2026-05-04 Thesis: Flywheel reversed and now mechanically broken: with MSTR ~$125 the mNAV premium has collapsed below the level where issuance funds new BTC buys (Grayscale, 6/5), Strategy turned net seller (Saylor, 6/1), STRC is in a "death spiral" (Schiff, 6/2), and BTC cracked $60K (6/5). Avoid the knife no long until BTC bases and net accumulation resumes. Invalidation trigger: Avoid-stance flips to long ONLY on all three: (1) BTC weekly close back above $84K, (2) an 8-K showing net BTC accumulation with zero sell-language, (3) MSTR weekly close above its 20-EMA with mNAV premium restored above issuance-accretive level. Until then every bounce is a falling-knife trap. --- ### MU — Micron Technology, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-06-25 Thesis: AI-memory thesis intact but price leg cracked (+200% over 200DMA, CEO sold $36M, Burry SOXX short) into FQ3 ~6/25 binary most-saturated memory leg, correlated dup. --- ### NBIS — Nebius Group N.V. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NBIS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: GPU-cloud ACCELERATING, theses resolved bullish but +100%/6wks parabolic on a short-squeeze, correlated to held HUT pullback-only, not a chase. --- ### NNE — Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NNE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: nuclear-uranium Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: May catalyst cluster (NRC acceptance 5/20, SMCI MOU, $13M STS buy) is spent and the nuclear-powers-AI theme cooled ACCELERATING→MATURING on 6/05; price lost the ~$24 post-NRC base into the low $20s (intraday $22.76) with a live $400M ATM armed. Faded leg, not a fresh entry re-entry only on a held higher low above ~$22–24 with the theme re-accelerating. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $22 forfeits the post-NRC base and opens the $18.93 52-week low; alternatively any 424B/8-K disclosing the $400M ATM selling into rallies confirms catalysts are priced and dilution is absorbing demand. --- ### OKLO — Oklo Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OKLO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: nuclear-uranium Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Nuclear-for-AI-power theme MATURING and in distribution. The 5/13 Q1 made OKLO a top-10 large-cap loser; the 5/26 DOE-plutonium bounce faded as CEO+COO sold ~$27M (10b5-1, surfaced 6/3, -12%), and shares broke to ~$58 by 6/5 under the $64.99–$70.45 insider range and Goldman's $66 PT. A live $400M ATM shelf is a standing dilution overhang. Broken structure, falling knife, no clean entry. Invalidation trigger: Avoid-thesis flips bullish on a daily reclaim of the $66–$70 shelf (above Goldman $66 PT and the insider-sale range) on expanding volume with NO fresh 424B/ATM takedown. Otherwise a weekly close below the 2026-05-18 post-Q1 low, a 424B takedown off the $400M shelf, or any new insider Form 4 within 2 weeks of June 1 confirms the breakdown. --- ### QBTS — D-Wave Quantum Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QBTS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: quantum-computing Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Government-bet leg ($100M Commerce LOI, 5/21) is digested, not fresh. Sell-side caught up triple $40 PTs on 6/2 QTUM ETF at $5B, and Quantinuum's $14.3B IPO (6/3) faded on day one (6/4), adding quantum equity supply. Theme MATURING→saturating, a6 squeeze; fresh entry only on a pullback that holds the May-21 gap base, not a chase into the $40-PT prints. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below the ~$20 May-20 pre-announcement base = government-bet gap filled and failed. OR a new ATM/shelf take-down 8-K beyond the $100M Commerce issuance. OR QTUM ETF rolls over while the quantum cohort (IONQ/RGTI/QUBT) prints lower lows in unison (theme→DEAD). --- ### QUBT — Quantum Computing Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QUBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: quantum-computing Next catalyst: 2026-06-05 Thesis: QNT's 2026-06-04 IPO faded same-day the feared flight-to-quality came and went without lifting QUBT, which stays excluded from the $2B CHIPS award and stuck below a failing 200-DMA near ~$11.34. MATURING theme, beta-only laggard, no accelerating leg to buy. Invalidation trigger: Flip to interest only on a weekly close back above the ~$13–14 200-DMA driven by a QUBT-specific catalyst (TFLN customer 8-K, direct federal award, or sustained options skew). Hard skip on any 424B5/S-3 ATM filing or a weekly close losing the ~$10 shelf. --- ### RGTI — Rigetti Computing, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RGTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: quantum-computing Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Gov-stake/CHIPS leg (2026-05-21) and Q1 print (2026-05-11) both spent; no RGTI-specific catalyst inside 30d. Stock held a $24 base but cracked to $20.39 on 2026-06-05 as basket leader QBTS rolls from ~$29 to the high-teens; theme MATURING→SATURATED (QTUM $5B AUM, Quantinuum $14.3B IPO, IBM $10B commoditizing the pure-play). Re-acceleration watch, not a fresh chase. Invalidation trigger: Daily/weekly close below ~$20 (loses the long-term average and gives back the 2026-05-21 gov-stake gap), confirmed by QBTS failing to reclaim its 20-EMA, OR any ATM-issuance 8-K filed during strength (front-runs basket peak by 5–10 sessions). --- ### SMR — NuScale Power Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SMR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: nuclear-uranium Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Undated South Korea $200B-package binary (NuScale Tennessee/Uljin SMR; Doosan + Samsung C&T) is the only live leg, but the June 1–2 pop to ~$14 fully round-tripped and broke to a $10.50 close (6/5) on 45%-above-avg volume, pressing the $8.85 52-wk low. Fundamentals broken (Q1 rev $0.565M, −96%); Citi $7 / Goldman $9 at/below spot. Sell-the-rip into lows pass on the chase, watchlist a confirmed deal + base. Invalidation trigger: South Korea $200B package finalizes with no named NuScale allocation, or a weekly close below the $8.85 52-wk low confirms the breakdown. Engage long only on a named SK capital figure (or binding offtake ≥$100/MWh for ≥250 MWe) PLUS a higher-low base reclaiming the 20-EMA (~$12). --- ### SPCX — SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SPCX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: space-satellite Thesis: SpaceX listed on Nasdaq as SPCX on 2026-06-12 at a $135 offer (a roughly $1.77T valuation and $75B raised, the largest IPO ever to price), and opened into the $150–165 band on demand several times its book. The asset underneath is generational: Starlink alone did $11.4B of 2025 revenue (about 61% of the company) at a $4.4B operating profit and 10M+ subscribers, with Starship reusability and the Artemis/Mars program as long-dated optionality on top. None of that is the question today. The question is price. A freshly-listed mega-cap up 15–25% on its offer on day one, on a thin float with insider lock-ups still ahead and a capital-hungry Starship build, is a name to map and stalk, not to chase on the opening pop. We want the post-IPO base, not the first-day tape. Invalidation trigger: A read on entry timing. Constructive only on a post-lock-up higher-low base that holds above the $135 offer on expanding volume, or a first public quarter that validates Starlink's margin trajectory. More cautious if the stock loses the $135 offer on heavy volume (the day-one pop unwound and the float overhang won), if Starlink growth decelerates, or if a Starship setback pushes the optionality further out. Structural second-order effect: with the real thing now public, the 'only way to own SpaceX' premium in the proxy basket (RKLB/ASTS/RDW/LUNR and DXYZ's NAV premium) should compress. --- ### TSLA — Tesla, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSLA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms, autonomous-driving-ev Next catalyst: 2026-06-18 Thesis: Optimus/Robotaxi leg is contested and maturing, not accelerating. Robotaxi fleet shrank to 20 cars (6/4), Roadster demo slipped to August (6/5), and NVIDIA's open robotics platform plus Sam Altman are arming/attacking the humanoid moat. Offsetting: JPM perma-bear flip to Neutral $475 and TD Cowen $490 (6/4-6/5) sell-side catching up late after the 6/2 ~$75B gap-down. SpaceX IPO ~6/18 drains Musk-complex capital. Flat until structure reclaims the 6/2 gap. Invalidation trigger: Confirmed pass if TSLA fails to reclaim its 2026-06-02 pre-gap high within ~2 weeks, the Austin Robotaxi fleet shrinks below 20 cars, or any FSD class-cert/HW3-retrofit ruling lands. Re-engage only on a reclaim of that high plus a dated TSLA-owned robotics accelerant (Optimus milestone or Robotaxi rides inflection on an expanding fleet). --- ### UUUU — Energy Fuels Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UUUU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: nuclear-uranium Next catalyst: 2026-06-22 Thesis: Rare-earth ex-China leg drove a June 2 +12% spike to $19.75 on the first US mine-to-oxide Tb/Dy oxide, but it blew off: -13.5% June 5 to $15.03, a weekly close back under the $16 mid-May shelf. Fundamental narrative (ASM vote June 22, Q4-2026 commercial heavy-REE) intact; price structure broken. Failed-spike reversal no clean setup, probe only on a base reclaim above ~$17. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $14 extends the failed-spike downtrend; OR ASM scheme vote fails at the 2026-06-22 Perth meeting / deal terminated; OR uranium spot holds below $78/lb for two consecutive weeks; OR any bounce fails to reclaim and hold the lost ~$16-17 mid-May shelf (no higher low). --- ### VST — Vistra Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: industrial-power-ai Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Original anticipation thesis fully resolved bullish (Meta+AWS PPAs signed, 2026 EBITDA guide raised ~14% to $6.72-7.52B, PJM cleared at the $329 cap) but VST sold the news ~32% off the $219.81 high and the June-5 $148.76 close is failing back toward the $132.66 low. Catalyst spent, theme MATURING, no binary until ~Aug Q2. Trend-repair, not asymmetric don't bottom-fish; needs a 50-DMA reclaim (~$160-165) to re-engage. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $132 (May-2026 swing low) on >1.3x avg volume; OR failure to reclaim the 50-DMA (~$160-165) by end-July while CEG/TLN/NRG roll over; OR a hyperscaler Q2 capex guide-cut that re-rates the power complex lower. --- ### VRT — Vertiv Holdings Co URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VRT/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: industrial-power-ai Thesis: Liquid-cooling sub-narrative re-accelerating inside a maturing AI-power theme: Goldman tagged it "the next AI trade" (5/24), NVIDIA's SmartRun digital-twin tie deepened the moat (6/1), TD Cowen set a street-high $387 target (5/20). Sell-side still revising up six weeks post-print signals no saturation; the 5/19 Weiss CNBC exit is the offsetting saturation watch. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-week EMA (~$306); or the ~2026-07-23 Q2 print showing datacenter orders/backlog decelerating below +30% YoY; or a second high-profile fast-money exit confirming the 2026-05-19 Weiss CNBC exit on a failed retest of the $353–$387 PT band. --- ### COHR — Coherent Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COHR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Optical ACCEL (0.90) cluster winner: Jensen optical-shift confirm + NVDA $1.9B stake, RSI 60.8 healthy, buy-the-pullback on a $405 — reclaim. Cleanest non-semi AI-infra expression; prior -8.3% exit warrants volume confirm. Invalidation trigger: a daily close below the published invalidation level --- ### NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NVDA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: Q1 FY27 binary cleared (~5/28); AI-capex demand printing harder (SpaceX-Google 110k-GPU deal 6/06, Oracle $100B capex 6/05) even as a 6/05 risk-off pulse and clustering AI-bubble warnings (Chamath 6/07) turn the tape two-sided. NVDA is the cluster laggard (+18% YTD vs STM +190%) un-stretched catch-up, not chasing the leader. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 50-DMA zone (~$186), OR Q2 FY27 Data Center guide <~$40B sequential at the ~August print, OR a named top-4 hyperscaler publicly cuts NVDA order volume for in-house silicon, OR AMD MI400/MI355X verified >70% of GB300 cost/token at a named hyperscaler. --- ### RIOT — Riot Platforms, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RIOT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds, bitcoin-miner-ai-pivot, ai-datacenter-power Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Legacy bitcoin miner re-rating into AI-datacenter landlord: AMD Rockdale lease contracted at 50MW/10yr/$311M, Q1 2026 booked $33.2M data-center revenue inside $167.22M total. Theme ACCELERATING and cluster-confirmed (IREN/Hut 8/TeraWulf), but an active BTC selloff and price above the $26.75 average PT after a +47.68% month cap a fresh entry at MEDIUM. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the late-May breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA (low-$24s); or BTC losing the $58–60K shelf into a sustained risk-off cascade; or Q2 data-center revenue failing to ramp off Q1's $33.2M, signaling the AMD lease pivot has stalled. --- ### GLW — Corning Incorporated URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GLW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: AI-optical/glass picks-and-shovels narrative is fully public and still being marked up UBS PT $228 (6/5, new Street high) atop Mizuho $220, plus retail 'if-you-invested' clickbait (6/4) and the May photonics-ETF launch = late-stage saturation, not a fresh entry. No clean setup until a volume-confirmed higher-low reclaims the $187 pivot. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$174 former-resistance support shelf, OR Q2 Optical Communications segment YoY <+10%, breaks the thesis. No actionable long without a volume-confirmed higher-low reclaiming the $187 pivot on >1.3x avg volume. --- ### GLXY — Galaxy Digital Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GLXY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: crypto-financials-exchange, bitcoin-beta, stablecoin-regulation Thesis: Crypto-financials leg that ran on BTC>$80k has rolled over for GLXY specifically: a 265.1M-share registration (5/21) is a multi-week supply overhang, a $100M BitGo claim (5/21) adds legal risk, and CEO Novogratz flagged a market top (5/26). Theme MATURING→SATURATED for this name; stay-away until the offering prices/absorbs and price reclaims >$31 with BTC>$100k. Invalidation trigger: Long thesis only re-validates on a daily/weekly close reclaiming and holding >$31 with BTC>$100k and the 265.1M-share offering priced/absorbed. Stay flat while the registration is unpriced, price holds <$31, or BTC trades <$90k. --- ### MP — MP Materials Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: specialty-materials-rare-earths Thesis: Rare-earths ACCEL (0.50), gov-equity meta-theme widening (drones/quantum/AI labs) with MP the DoD prototype; 2 insider buys (rule 9). But sell-side only just initiated (late-cycle) and RECENTLY_EXITED -6% twice LOW probe. Invalidation trigger: a daily close below the published invalidation level --- ### PURR — Hyperliquid Strategies Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PURR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: crypto-financials-exchange, hyperliquid-hype-proxy, crypto-treasury-vehicle Thesis: Hyperliquid proxy with a fresh institutional narrative leg (ICE CEO "bigger than Nasdaq" 5/29; Hayes $100k bet 6/2), but the crypto tape just broke BTC/ETH/SOL all -10%+ in a week into 6/4, BTC sub-$68k. A 35.16M-share secondary overhangs a thin float. Narrative intact; tape and structure are not. Stand aside until it bases above ~$8.50 with crypto firming. Invalidation trigger: No basing case while BTC sits sub-$65k. A daily close below ~$7.40 (mid-May breakdown low) marks the structure dead, and the 35.16M-share Rorschach secondary pricing below ~$7.50 confirms distribution. Re-engagement requires reclaim of ~$8.50 on 2x volume with BTC back above $70k. --- ### QCOM — QUALCOMM Incorporated URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QCOM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, edge-ai-agents Thesis: AI-chip cluster still ACCELERATING, but QCOM's own leg is MATURING/late: a late-May breakout to the ~$248–250 52-week-high zone failed on sub-1x volume and reverted toward the published invalidation level with retail-saturation flags and NVIDIA pressing into its Snapdragon-X PC turf. Stand aside until a higher-low plus a >1x-volume reclaim of the prior-high zone confirms a new leg. Invalidation trigger: No fresh long unless a daily close reclaims the ~$248–250 prior-high zone on >1x volume with a defined higher-low. A rejection there, a daily close back below the $229–230 breakout-pivot/20-EMA, the AI-chip theme cooling to MATURING/SATURATED, or NVIDIA RTX Spark benchmarks showing Snapdragon-X share loss = stay out / thesis broken. --- ### RKLB — Rocket Lab Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RKLB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: space-satellite Thesis: The SpaceX-IPO proxy bid that drove the April–May run is actively unwinding S&P killed the SpaceX index-inclusion catalyst 6/05, peers (Redwire, Momentus) down 20%+ on IPO fatigue while a $3B ATM caps every rally. Fundamentals (Q1 $200.3M, >$1.3B SDA win) intact but not the marginal buyer. Theme SATURATING; stand aside until the proxy washout bases. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (~$115–120) with the $3B ATM active confirms no clean trend; a sell-side downgrade within 30d flips the theme to saturated. Constructive only on a higher-low 20-EMA retest with RSI<65 and visible ATM-overhang relief. --- ### WEST — Westrock Coffee Company URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WEST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: coffee-rtd-capacity-ramp, consumer-staples-smallcap, beverage-momentum, ebitda-fcf-inflection Thesis: Operational inflection now visible: Q1 (2026-05-07) printed record adjusted EBITDA and a revenue beat ($308.8M vs $285.2M est), with a reaffirmed 2026 outlook and FCF-positive H2 guide as the Conway extract/RTD platform turns capex to cash. Stock re-rated from its late-May ~the published invalidation level low to $9.50 (6/12) on clustered analyst PT hikes. Narrative is real and accelerating, but a fresh entry is extended near 52-wk highs, above the ~$8.88 average PT, into an ~8-week gap to Q2 (~8/6). Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below the reclaimed ~$8.40 shelf (loses the base, reverts to the prior dead range), or Q2 (~2026-08-06) shows revenue below the Q1 $308.8M run-rate, decelerating adjusted EBITDA, or the FCF-positive-H2 guide walked back. --- ### WTI — W&T Offshore, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: oil-energy-geopolitical, crude-oil-macro, gulf-offshore-eandp, hormuz-supply-shock Next catalyst: 2026-07-05 Thesis: WTI crude is in a war-premium regime (~$92, Hormuz shut since March), yet W&T Offshore trades $4.11 near 52-week lows a Gulf producer that can't rally on its perfect macro because Q1 hedges booked a $24.5M derivative loss. The June 12 'final text' US–Iran peace deal now threatens the only prop. Stand aside. Invalidation trigger: Non-participation read flips only on a daily close back above the mid-May $4.74 reaction high on volume ≥1.5× 20-day avg with WTI crude holding >$85. Absent that, a signed US–Iran/Hormuz deal sending crude toward the $70s and losing the $4.00 shelf confirms downside. --- ### WULF — TeraWulf Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WULF/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-06-18 Thesis: BTC-miner-to-HPC re-rate re-accelerating: 1 GW Kentucky AI campus (2026-05-26) + six PT raises to $28–42 pushed through a Q1 revenue miss. The binary now is a named hyperscaler tenant landing vs. the 2026-06-02 NY data-center moratorium hitting the Lake Mariner flagship. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the $19.00 April offering reference (institutional cost basis); or NY's one-year data-center moratorium passing in a form that covers operating Lake Mariner capacity, not just new build. --- ### ARM — Arm Holdings plc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ARM/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: Cluster-confirmed AI-silicon name last week's post-mortem flagged us for missing. Theme classifier ACCELERATING (0.84) with a concrete <14-day catalyst: Nvidia's first PC processor is ARM-based (Computex 2026-06-01) and Oracle joined the AGI-CPU ecosystem with ByteDance/Meta/OpenAI named (2026-06-02), driving a four-PT-raise cluster in one week (Barclays $360 / Wells $410 / Mizuho $425->$500). RISK-ON macro, no earnings until 2026-07-29. The prior avoid streak was mostly incomplete prior reads, refuted by the higher tape. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the published invalidation level (20-EMA / post-Computex base), OR a sell-side downgrade reversing the PT-raise cluster, OR theme classifier flips off ACCELERATING. --- ### CDNL — Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CDNL/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-datacenter-picks-and-shovels, civil-infrastructure-rollup, sun-belt-construction, data-center-site-work Next catalyst: 2026-06-26 Thesis: Sun Belt civil-infrastructure roll-up re-rating on the data-center buildout: Q1 FY26 revenue +105% YoY with an EPS beat ($0.23 vs $0.14), FY26 guide raised to $675–685M, Oppenheimer ($60) and Stifel ($63) initiations within a week, a COO open-market buy at $51.30, and a June Piedmont Pipe tuck-in. Narrative ACCELERATING with institutional adoption just starting; ~$56 sits ~10% under the $63 high. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$50 (loses the rising 20-EMA and the May breakout shelf), OR FY26 revenue guide cut below the raised $675–685M range, OR a Q2 print showing organic (ex-acquisition) growth decelerating under ~30% YoY, OR cancellation/delay of the $24M data-center Phase 1 contract. --- ### COHU — Cohu, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COHU/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, semicap-equipment, ai-test-inspection Thesis: AI-compute test picks-&-shovels re-rate still ACCELERATING: Q1 orders +57% YoY, FY26 guide raised +20-25%, AI pipeline ~$750M, sell-side targets $53-60. Eclipse xPU handler + Neon HBM inspection are the leg. Extended at 52-wk highs (~$56) with no catalyst inside 30d; next binary is the ~2026-07-30 Q2 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-week EMA (~$44); OR the ~2026-07-30 Q2 print misses the $144M ±$7M guide, GM guided <43%, or FY26 growth guide cut below +20%; OR no new xPU handler design wins / Eclipse follow-on order stall on the Q2 call. --- ### DRTS — Alpha Tau Medical Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DRTS/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, radiopharmaceutical-oncology Thesis: Commercial-validation leg accelerating: Tolmar's 2026-06-03 US prostate deal ($35M upfront, up to $161.5M milestones, $20M equity at a 34% premium) stacked on strong 2026-06-01 ASCO pancreatic OS data (median up to 17.1mo) and two analyst PT raises in a week. Clinical-stage alpha-radiation narrative re-rated; next binary is summer H&N data. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$8.95 (the pre-Tolmar 2026-06-02 base the deal gap launched from) fully retraces the commercial-validation pop. Secondary: negative Head & Neck summer-2026 data or a ReSTART cSCC ORR miss / FDA PMA stall. --- ### FN — Fabrinet URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FN/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Thesis: Optical-CMO narrative broadening from telecom (Q3 telecom +55% YoY, DCI +90%) into a supply-constrained datacom inflection two direct hyperscale 800G programs ramp Q4→mid-FY27, Building 10 adds 50% capacity for 1.6T. Revenue acceleration (29%→39% YoY) while the stock bases ~16% under its $748.89 high is the setup; fiscal-Q4 print mid-Aug is the next binary. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 50-day (~$560) loses the post-Q3 flag base; or fiscal-Q4 (mid-Aug) revenue printing under the $1.25B guide floor with datacom down a second straight quarter supply-unlock inflection slipping, not just delayed. --- ### LQDA — Liquidia Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LQDA/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-06-23 Thesis: YUTREPIA ramp accelerating (Q1'26 net sales $129.9M, +44% QoQ, profitable) and the legal tail just got cut: the 2026-06-04 SCOTUS Hikma v. Amarin skinny-label ruling takes forced NDA withdrawal off the table, shifting the '327 trial (begins 2026-06-23) toward damages-not-injunction. Stock gapped +18% to a 52-wk high. Invalidation trigger: '327 trial ruling (post 2026-06-23) grants UTHR a permanent injunction rather than monetary damages; OR weekly close back below the $54–57 breakout shelf (failed June-4 breakout); OR Q2'26 YUTREPIA net sales <$130M (sequential ramp breaks). --- ### MOD — Modine Manufacturing Co URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MOD/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai Next catalyst: 2026-05-19 Thesis: Q4 FY26 cleared bullish EPS $1.71 vs $1.55, sales beat, plus a $4B+ Airedale DC-cooling capacity deal through 2029 that turns the narrative from growth line-item into contracted multi-year backlog. Theme ACCELERATING, five PT raises to $370. Picks-and-shovels DC cooling now confirmed; entry into post-print extension is the only open question. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below the pre-print ~$260 shelf / loss of the rising 20-EMA; or a subsequent quarter with DC sales growth <40% YoY; or the $4B Airedale agreement publicly amended, reduced, or cancelled. --- ### MRVL — Marvell Technology, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MRVL/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: Fresh entry. Price ran ~+6% past it; the post-mortem's lesson is to FUND cluster-confirmed HIGH names. Theme is ACCELERATING (0.91), AVGO-confirmed cluster, so the momentum read stays constructive. Concrete dated catalyst: S&P 500 inclusion effective 6/22 (rebalance ~6/19 close) mechanical passive bid on the three-hyperscaler ASIC royalty story (AWS Trainium + MSFT MAIA + Google TPU), Q1 cleared so no binary earnings risk. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~the published invalidation level May breakout base (loses rising weekly 20-EMA), OR AVGO discloses incremental ASIC share at AWS Trainium/MSFT MAIA, OR public walk-back of the Google/Marvell TPU talks, OR a hyperscaler guides FY27 capex flat-to-down. --- ### MTSI — MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MTSI/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical, ai-optical-interconnect Thesis: AI optical-interconnect arms-dealer with mid-cycle re-acceleration: MACOM raised FY26 data-center growth from 35-40% to >60% on the Q2 call. Theme ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed (COHR/CRDO/ALAB). But it V-ripped +29%/month back near the $418.90 high, then printed a ~-7% reversal day (~$363) into an ~8-week catalyst vacuum (Q3 print ~2026-07-30). Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 50-day (~$345); OR Q3 print ~2026-07-30 revenue below $331M guide-low or FY26 DC growth cut back under 60%; OR optical peers CRDO/ALAB/COHR lose their 50-days together (theme→SATURATED). --- ### POWL — Powell Industries, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/POWL/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: grid-power-transmission Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Grid + AI-data-center power buildout converting to record orders: Q2 (5/4) orders +97% YoY to $490M, backlog $1.8B into FY2028, plus a post-quarter ~$400M+ largest-ever data center deal. Theme ACCELERATING; stock digesting the $321.94 (5/11) ATH back to ~$285 on neutral RSI a pullback in an uptrend, not peak mania. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$255 (post-Q2 breakout shelf / rising 50-day), or Q3 FY2026 backlog (~early Aug) printing below the $1.8B Q2 level either breaks the order-acceleration thesis. --- ### SIMO — Silicon Motion Technology Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SIMO/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: nand-memory-supercycle, ai-chip-infra-memory, semiconductor-analog-components Thesis: NAND-controller picks-and-shovels riding the worst memory shortage in ~15 years (NAND contract +70–75% QoQ); Q1 +105% YoY blowout (2026-04-30) and BofA chasing its PT to $450. ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed; RSI cooled 89→71, next binary not until ~2026-07-29. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the post-Q1 breakout base (~$230); or Q2 revenue (2026-07-29) under the $393M guidance floor / GM guide below ~48%; or TrendForce NAND contract prices turn sequentially negative, signaling the supercycle has peaked. --- ### SMTC — Semtech Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SMTC/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Thesis: Fresh continuation on confirmed AI-interconnect acceleration: Q1 FY27 guide-raise put data center +85% YoY into the numbers ($71.6M, ~25% of rev), 1.6T CopperEdge/FiberEdge into a 1H-FY28 backlog. Rules 1/2/3/5/10 fire clean momentum top 25%, +15pp vs SPX, near 52w high above all EMAs, RSI 59.5, theme classifier-ACCELERATING. Catalyst is sell-side catch-up (PT wall $175-230, consensus ~$196 ~30% above) plus estimate revisions, not a binary; earnings ~Aug 28 clear the blackout. Post-mortem says fund cluster-confirmed AI-infra (MRVL was a missed winner, SMTC its interconnect peer) over lottery tickets this is that name. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$140 (post-print gap shelf / rising 20-EMA) on volume; OR any 8-K signaling CopperEdge design-out / CRDO-Astera named winning ACC share at the lead hyperscaler. --- ### TTMI — TTM Technologies, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TTMI/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, defense-electronics, ai-server-hardware, reshoring-manufacturing Thesis: AI-data-center + defense PCB/RF picks-and-shovels re-accelerating: V-rebounded off the ~$172 June-10 dip to ~$194 (3% under ATH $200.68); $4B 2026 revenue goal (May 27 Investor Day), book-to-bill 1.41, sell-side PTs $205–$215 still above price. The $200/ATH breakout is the continuation trigger; no company catalyst until the ~Aug-5 Q2 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$170 (June-10 higher-low shelf / rising 20-week support), OR Q2 print (~Aug 5) book-to-bill <1.0 or revenue below the $930M guide-low signaling AI+defense order rollover. --- ### AAON — AAON, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AAON/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai Thesis: BASX data-center liquid-cooling narrative violently re-rated on the 2026-05-07 Q1 blowout rev +54% YoY, FY guide doubled to 40-45%, backlog +107% to $2.13B. Theme accelerating, but the binary already detonated (+53% in 30d), insiders sold into it, and the next print isn't until Jul 30; current tape is post-gap digestion rather than a fresh breakout. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (~$125) or loss of the May gap base (~$112); or a Q2 print (2026-07-30) showing BASX backlog rolling over sequentially or gross margin below the 27-28% guide. --- ### ACHC — Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ACHC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: behavioral-health-turnaround, specialty-healthcare-late-cycle, doj-overhang-healthcare Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Scandal-era behavioral-health operator turning operationally under new management: clean Q1 (rev +7.6%, acute psych +14%, reported 2026-04-29), FY guide raised to $3.37–3.45B, two clustered Buy upgrades (UBS $31 Apr, Jefferies $30 Jun 3). MATURING turnaround ~2x off the $11.43 low, now consolidating mid-$20s into a Q2 Florida-DPP guide-raise setup capped by an unresolved DOJ/SEC probe and a fresh $105M jury verdict. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the low-$22 recovery-trend/20-EMA zone, or loss of the $20 handle (recovery structure broken); a DOJ/SEC charging or consent-decree 8-K; the $105M verdict upheld/expanded on appeal; or the ~late-July Q2 print failing to raise guidance despite Florida DPP approval. --- ### ACLS — Axcelis Technologies, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ACLS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, semicap-equipment, semicap-ma-consolidation, power-semi-silicon-carbide Thesis: Memory-capex pick-and-shovel re-rating + pending all-stock Veeco merger drove ACLS +83% in 3mo to ~$167; DRAM is now 32% of Q1 shipments and HBM4 lifts implant intensity. But FY26 revenue is guided FLAT, DCF ~$92, price sits only ~8% under the top PT, and the China SAMR deal gate is getting MORE scrutiny accelerating narrative, compressed fresh-entry reward/risk. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$140 (fills the post-Q1 earnings gap, breaks the breakout base); OR China SAMR moves the Veeco deal off simplified to in-depth review or blocks it; OR FY2026 revenue guide cut below "flat." --- ### ADI — Analog Devices, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ADI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Thesis: Analog cyclical-trough-is-in + AI-power optionality (Empower $1.5B) narrative already fired: Q2 beat ~2026-05-20 triggered 11+ PT hikes to $440–515 by 05-26. Binary is now in the rearview and sell-side has fully caught up late validated leg, not a front-run. Best entry is a 20-EMA pullback re-test, not a chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the post-Q2 breakout pivot (~$410, est.) or below the rising 20-EMA; or an August Q3 FY2026 guide that cuts industrial/auto demand and breaks the cyclical-recovery thesis. Levels are PT-anchored estimates confirm with a live quote before sizing. --- ### ADPT — Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ADPT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-06-14 Thesis: clonoSEQ MRD franchise inflecting to profitability as the narrative goes public Q1 MRD revenue +53% YoY (May 5), FY guide raised to $260–270M, positive adj-EBITDA/FCF targeted by year-end; ASCO/EHA data through Jun 14 validating the MRD standard. Accelerating and near 52-week highs, but still under the $21+ analyst band. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$16 (rising 20-week / breakout shelf); or Aug 5 Q2 print showing MRD growth decelerating toward low-20s% or the $260–270M FY guide cut; or the year-end positive adj-EBITDA/FCF target explicitly pushed out. --- ### AESI — Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AESI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: distributed-power-ai-datacenter, behind-the-meter-power, oilfield-services-proppant Thesis: Frac-sand legacy pivot re-rating into AI/data-center behind-the-meter power on the $840M Caterpillar 1.4GW genset deal plus an upgrade cluster (RJ Outperform $25 6/2, Citi $22). But the 6/2 breakout faded -8.6% on 6/5 as Goldman reaffirmed Sell ($14) on 6/4 momentum leg now contested; power FCF not until H1-2027. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$15 (rising 20-EMA / 6/2 breakout base) = failed breakout. Hard break: Caterpillar 1.4GW GFA slippage/cancellation, OR Q2 (~8/4) adj-EBITDA guide cut below ~$48M consensus, OR no new power PPA signed by the Q2 print. --- ### AGX — Argan, Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AGX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: Pure-play EPC for hyperscaler gas-fired data-center power. Q1 FY27 (2026-06-04) confirmed the thesis hard revenue +50% to a record $291M, EPS $3.24 vs $2.33 est, EBITDA +79% but the binary is now consumed, backlog slipped QoQ to $2.8B (book-to-bill <1 this quarter), and price (~$689) sits above the lone fresh PT ($600 Hold). Theme accelerating, stock extended; the edge from here is a pullback, not a chase post-print. Invalidation trigger: Second straight QoQ backlog decline (book-to-bill <1 two quarters running) toward/below ~$2.5B on the ~Sept Q2 print; OR a weekly close that loses the post-earnings breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA; OR a top-4 hyperscaler cuts FY27 capex guide >10%; OR GE Vernova reports soft turbine bookings on its ~late-July print. --- ### AGYS — Agilysys, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AGYS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: enterprise-ai-software-data, hospitality-saas, vertical-saas-ai Thesis: Hospitality vertical-SaaS re-rating off a deep 2025 drawdown: 17th straight record quarter (Q4 rev $82.9M, EPS $0.63 vs $0.50), FY27 guide $365-370M with subscription +30%, and clustered analyst actions (Piper initiates $110, 2026-06-02) while price ~$88 sits below every PT ($100-159). AI modules + Marriott PMS ramp are the accelerants. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the ~$76 post-earnings base shelf (loses rising 20-EMA / 2026-05-18 breakout); or Q1 FY27 (late July) revenue under the $82.9M Q4 baseline; or any cut to the >30% subscription-growth framing. --- ### AIP — Arteris, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AIP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, semiconductor-royalty-model, custom-silicon-ip, automotive-ai-silicon, small-cap-ai-momentum Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: Semiconductor-IP royalty re-accel is now confirmed: Q1 (reported 2026-05-12) revenue +39% and variable royalties +67% YoY drove a near-2x re-rate to a $38.99 ATH plus PT hikes (Rosenblatt $38, Jefferies $35). Fundamentals ACCELERATING, but sell-side has caught up and price sits ~2x off April lows after a -7.8% June 5 pullback fresh entry rates MEDIUM, cleaner on a 20-EMA hold (low $30s) or a >$39 breakout than chasing here. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$28 post-Q1 breakout shelf (rising 50-day), or the Q2 print (~Aug) showing variable-royalty YoY growth decelerating below +25% vs. +67% in Q1. --- ### ALGM — Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ALGM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-datacenter-power, industrial-power-ai, ev-power-semis, ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: Data-center power-IC re-rate intact fundamentally, but the 2026-06-05 rate-hike scare (Nasdaq -3%) reversed ALGM from a fresh ~$54.40 high to $46.39 a ~15% failed-breakout drop, back to the $46 consensus PT. 86% cyclical book sells with the tape; macro is tightening and no catalyst until the ~2026-07-31 print. Wait for stabilization, don't catch the knife. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $44 (post-2026-05-07 breakout shelf / rising 50-day) confirms the failed breakout, OR data-center revenue growth printing <20% YoY on the ~2026-07-31 Q1 FY2027 report. --- ### ALKS — Alkermes plc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ALKS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, orexin-sleep-medicine, cns-neuroscience Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Orexin sleep-medicine re-rate: Takeda's Phase 3 + FDA priority review validated the OX2R class, and Alkermes' alixorexton posted positive Phase 2 in both NT1 (Vibrance-1) and NT2 (Vibrance-2), with Phase 3 underway and an IH readout due Q4 2026. Avadel/LUMRYZ adds a sleep sales force. Detailed Vibrance-2 NT2 data at SLEEP 2026 (2026-06-17) is the near-term tell but the stock is parabolic at the 52-week high into a non-binary print. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA near $40; or a liver-enzyme/hepatotoxicity signal in alixorexton Phase 3 or elsewhere in the OX2R class. Spot ~$44 already sits above the ~$46 consensus target, so losing $40 confirms the run has exhausted. --- ### ALTO — Alto Ingredients, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ALTO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ethanol-biofuels, specialty-alcohol, section-45z-tax-credits, low-carbon-fuels, legacy-pivot-turnaround, biogenic-co2, commodity-materials Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Legacy fuel-ethanol producer re-rated ~6x off a $0.92 low on a specialty-alcohol + Section 45Z tax-credit pivot. Q1 2026 (2026-05-06) was the first GAAP-profit quarter $0.05 EPS beat but shares fell 18% on the print. Sell-side now arriving (HC Wainwright PT $10, consensus Strong Buy $9). Maturing turnaround at $5.43, not an early accelerating setup; mid-base entry is a chase. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$4.50 (loses the post-earnings recovery base), or Q2 2026 print (~Aug) shows profit carried solely by the $8.1M derivative mark + 45Z credits with board crush margin back below $0.05/gal. --- ### AMRX — Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMRX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, biosimilars-scale-up, glp1-supply-chain, specialty-pharma-pivot Thesis: Commodity-generics maker re-rating into specialty branded, biosimilars, and GLP-1 contract manufacturing. Q1 adj. EBITDA +19% and Specialty +23%, then June CREXONT Phase 4 data and a romidepsin FDA approval drove a +19% week to fresh 52-week highs. Narrative accelerating; entry is extended at the top of the range. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$13.50 pre-breakout shelf (rising 20-EMA zone), or an FY2026 adj. EBITDA guide cut below the $740M floor on the Q2 print. --- ### APH — Amphenol Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/APH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-datacenter-interconnect, ai-infrastructure-buildout, semiconductor-analog-components Thesis: AI-datacenter interconnect picks-and-shovels narrative accelerating: Q1 2026 orders hit a record $9.4B (book-to-bill 1.24), the $10.5B CommScope CCS deal (~$4.1B FY sales) closed in January, IT Datacom +80% YoY. Stock consolidating ~8% under the Jan ATH of $167; a weekly reclaim is the momentum trigger. No hard catalyst until the Jul 29 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$140 (loses the spring consolidation shelf and rising 20-week EMA); or the Jul 29 Q2 print showing book-to-bill back below 1.0 or revenue under the $8.1B guide floor. --- ### ATEN — A10 Networks Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATEN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical, ai-infra-adjacent, ai-data-center-infra, small-cap-networking Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: April sell-side stalemate broke bullish: Q1 (5/07) beat at $75.0M rev +13.4% and the desk cluster flipped to Strong Buy, then Citrini's ~5/29 long initiation ran ATEN to a fresh 52-wk high ($30.57 spot). AI-networking-adjacency narrative ACCELERATING and going semi-public; price above the $28.50 median PT confirms momentum. One weak signal: extended entry near highs. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$26 (rising 20-EMA / May breakout shelf) ending the momentum leg; OR Q2 2026 revenue (~2026-08-04) below ~$76M, breaking the 10–12% FY26 growth guide; OR two desks cutting PT below $25 within 14 days, or Citrini flagging an exit. --- ### BBAR — Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BBAR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: argentina-financials, argentina-reform-turnaround, em-bank-credit-growth Next catalyst: 2026-07-14 Thesis: Argentina disinflation/reform turnaround accelerating, with BBAR a cluster-confirmed bank vehicle for a credit cycle off a near-zero base. Stock near 52-wk highs (~$20.6) after a near-triple off $7.76; loan-growth runway is the leg, but 8.3% Q1 ROE and a cut 2026 loan-growth guide are the soft spots under the tape. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the reclaimed ~$14.80 breakout shelf (Oct-2025 MA cross); or re-imposition of FX/capital controls or INDEC CPI re-accelerating above ~2.5% MoM for two prints signs the disinflation trade has broken. --- ### BE — Bloom Energy Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, ai-datacenter-power, fuel-cells Thesis: On-site-power-for-AI narrative ACCELERATING and cluster-confirmed: Oracle's up-to-2.8GW Project Jupiter (Apr 27) plus the Nebius $2.6B/328MW deal (May 20) re-rated Bloom to AI-infra supplier on a ~$20B backlog and a Q1 turn to GAAP profit. But the stock (~$266, Jun 5) is rolling off its $322.83 ATH back to consensus PT digesting parabola, retest-and-probe not chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA / $225–$240 pre-breakout shelf; OR FY2026 revenue guide cut below the $3.40B floor; OR Oracle (2.8GW) or Nebius (328MW) install timelines slip; OR a hyperscaler publicly chooses gas turbines over Bloom SOFC. --- ### BHE — Benchmark Electronics URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BHE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: electronics-manufacturing-services, ai-datacenter-infra, ai-liquid-cooling, semicap-equipment-cycle Thesis: EMS arms-dealer to the AI buildout AC&C +41% YoY (liquid-cooling for AI data centers) + semi-cap recovery drove a FY26 guide raise to 9–10% on the 2026-04-29 print. Narrative accelerating, but the ~145% run to ~$88 is above the $78 avg PT and just got rejected −5.2% at the $89 52wk high on 2026-06-05. Maturing structure; pullback, not chase. Next catalyst Aug 5. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$72 (rising 20-week EMA / post-earnings breakout shelf) breaks the momentum leg; OR Q2 CY2026 revenue below the $700M guide floor on the 2026-08-05 print ends the AC&C/semi-cap acceleration story. --- ### BIRK — Birkenstock Holding plc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BIRK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands, premium-footwear-brands, consumer-discretionary-recovery Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Post-earnings-gap premium footwear brand re-rated ~+46% off the $33.45 May-13 low on a $250M accelerated buyback, a Kith capsule "brand heat" drop, and short-covering; now ~10% under the $54 ATH with the buyback bid set to settle by ~June 30 a mature bounce into resistance, breakout still unproven. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$43 (rising 20-EMA / post-earnings recovery shelf); or any FY2026 guide cut gross margin below 57.0% or revenue below the €2.3B floor reiterated on the May 13 print. --- ### BTDR — Bitdeer Technologies Group URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BTDR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: bitcoin-mining-ai-pivot, ai-data-center, nvidia-ecosystem, hpc-cloud Next catalyst: 2026-06-12 Thesis: Bitcoin-miner-to-AI pivot ratified by the May-14 Q1 beat ($188.9M rev, AI-cloud ARR ~$69M at +60% MoM, EBITDA flipped positive); analysts re-rated to $23–25 and shares ran ~$12→$20. Narrative accelerating, but the name is mid-pullback as BTC craters to a four-month low (~$62K) near miner-shutdown economics the AI decoupling is being stress-tested live. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$15 (post-Q1 breakout shelf / rising 50-DMA) breaks the structure; OR the ~2026-06-12 May ops update shows AI-cloud ARR flat-to-below the ~$69M April run-rate; OR BTC loses $60K, forcing miner-complex liquidation that overrides the AI-cloud decoupling. --- ### CECO — CECO Environmental Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CECO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, data-center-power, ai-power-infrastructure, natural-gas-power, electrification Next catalyst: 2026-06-09 Thesis: Data-center-power order book vertical (Q1 orders +97% to $449.5M, b2b 2.2x, guide raised twice) and the $2.2B Thermon merger closed 2026-06-01, ~doubling scale to ~$1.5B combined revenue. Accelerating 2nd-order industrial-power narrative consolidating ~13% below the $90.28 ATH; the 2026-06-09 synergy/integration call is the next mover. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $68 (post-Q1 breakout base); OR book-to-bill falls below 1.5x on the next order/earnings update; OR the 2026-06-09 call cuts combined FY revenue guide below ~$1.45B or flags integration/synergy slippage. --- ### CLS — Celestica, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-hyperscaler-networking, ai-capex-picks-shovels, ai-datacenter-infra Next catalyst: 2026-04-27 Thesis: AI-networking picks-and-shovels narrative still accelerating after the 2026-04-27 Q1 blowout (rev +53% to $4.05B, FY26 guide raised $17B→$19B; CIBC $480/BMO $450 chasing) but the stock just reset ~21% from the $474 June-2 high to $372, losing the $390 shelf on a -12.6% day. Story intact, structure broken; the clean entry is a higher-low reclaim above $390, not the falling knife. Invalidation trigger: Daily close failing to reclaim $390 — then losing $330 (pre-May breakout base); or Q2 print 2026-07-27 with CCS YoY growth <~50% or any cut to the $19B FY2026 / $10.15 EPS guide; or a hyperscaler (GOOGL/META/AMZN/MSFT) trimming 2026 capex. --- ### CLSK — CleanSpark, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLSK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds, bitcoin-miners, ai-power-infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-07-03 Thesis: Last big pure-play BTC miner re-rating on its AI/HPC neocloud pivot, but the May acceleration leg has stalled: the 2026-06-04 production update again showed no signed deal and shares fell into 2026-06-05. Theme rolling ACCELERATING→MATURING; the binary signed-hyperscaler-lease still hasn't fired. Clean setup is a breakout-shelf pullback that holds, or the deal headline not chasing the post-catalyst fade. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the May breakout shelf (pre-+37%-run base top); OR an official "lease talks ended" / pivot walk-back headline; OR fiscal Q3 (~early-Aug) delivering another revenue miss with zero signed HPC revenue. --- ### CORT — Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CORT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-06-19 Thesis: Post-CRL redemption arc largely complete: stock round-tripped $28.66→$91 high, now $72.62. Live leg is Cushing's second-approval optionality NDA resubmission announced 2026-05-27 (no new trials, PDUFA ~late 2026). Q1 missed (+4.9% YoY, net loss) but FY guide raised to $950M-$1.05B. MATURING, extended after ~2.5x. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$60 (recovery trend / ~200-EMA zone breaks) OR FDA refuse-to-file / second CRL on the Cushing's resubmission OR FY2026 guide cut below $950M low end OR Cushing's resubmission slips past Q3 2026. --- ### CSCO — Cisco Systems, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CSCO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Next catalyst: 2026-06-08 Thesis: AI-enterprise cleanest structure: 6 rules incl rule 3 within-10%-of-high, RSI 56 healthy, $9B AI order book; Cisco Live 6/8-12 soft catalyst prefer $118-120 retest over a $128 chase. --- ### CTOS — Custom Truck One Source, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CTOS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, grid-modernization-td, equipment-rental, public-sector-procurement Thesis: Grid/T&D capex supercycle (data-center power + grid modernization) is the accelerating leg; CTOS is the laggard specialty-rental picks-and-shovels name re-rating on a Q1 beat-and-raise, clustered PT hikes to $11–13, and a new Sourcewell public-sector channel (2026-05-27). No hard catalyst until ~late-July Q2 trend-continuation, not a fresh binary. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $8.00 (50-day/breakout base); or FY26 Adj EBITDA guided below the raised $415M floor at Q2; or rental utilization back under 78% (T&D demand rollover); or a Platinum Equity block sale/secondary. --- ### CVLG — Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CVLG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: freight-trucking-logistics Thesis: Freight-cycle inflection play: ~88k carrier authorities exited in 2023-24 and dry-van contract rates turned up again in April 2026, giving trough-earning Covenant heavy operating leverage to the recovery. Stock just tagged a 52-week high (~$47), but Q1 margins worsened YoY, insiders sold the whole run, and price trades ~30% above the $33-35 consensus PT the inflection still has to show in Q2 numbers (~2026-07-22). Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$40 (loses the late-May breakout shelf / rising trend off the $18 base); OR Q2 print (~2026-07-22) shows adjusted operating ratio worsening again above 97% (no margin inflection); OR Cass Freight Index / ATA tonnage turns negative month-over-month. --- ### CYRX — CryoPort, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CYRX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cell-gene-therapy-logistics, cgt-cold-chain, biotech-funding-recovery, biotech-precision-therapeutics Thesis: CGT cold-chain picks-and-shovels; the 2026 re-rate (FDA manufacturing flexibility + biotech-funding recovery + commercial CGT rev +26% YoY at the May 4 print) has largely played out. Spot ~$15.70 now sits ABOVE the $15.31 consensus PT after fading ~6% off the $16.73 high; no binary until Q2 (~early Aug). Maturing move better entry on a $13–14 breakout retest than chasing the Craig-Hallum pop. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$13 (breakout pivot / 20-week EMA zone); OR FY2026 revenue guide cut below the $192M floor at Q2 print (~early Aug); OR commercial CGT revenue growth decelerates below +15% YoY (was +26% in Q1). --- ### DAVE — Dave Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DAVE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-fintech-neobank, ai-credit-underwriting, fintech-profitability-inflection Thesis: Profitable AI-underwriting neobank: Q1 rev +47% to $158.4M, NI +101%, record-low 1.69% past-due (CashAI). Stock reclaimed the ~$244 post-Q1 pullback and pushed to ~$258, ~12% under the $293.90 high. But theme is MATURING seven desks now cover it (median PT $333), and there's no catalyst until the Aug 12 Q2 print. Reclaim continuation, not a fresh-edge breakout. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$210 (loses 200-day MA / post-Q1 breakout base) breaks the trend; a close below the ~$240 pullback shelf is the first warning. OR the Aug 12 Q2 print shows 28-day past-due re-expanding above ~2.5% vs the 1.69% Q1 record low (CashAI underwriting edge normalizing). --- ### DIOD — Diodes Incorporated URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DIOD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: analog-discrete-semi, ai-server-content, auto-industrial-cycle Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Cyclical analog/discrete recovery re-rated into an AI-server content story: Q1 beat (rev $405.5M +22% YoY, EPS $0.43 vs $0.34) plus a raised Q2 guide ($435M) drove a +15% two-day spike (6/01→6/03). The binary already resolved bullish now a momentum trend, but extended +128% YTD into the 52-week high with clustered May insider selling. Edge on a fresh entry is on a pullback to the ~$102 breakout shelf, not chasing the rip. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$100 the early-June breakout base near the 6/01 $101.96 close fails the AI-server re-rate and round-trips the spike. Secondary: Q2 print (~2026-08-06) revenue under the $435M guide, or an in-line quarter paired with a Q3 guide-down. --- ### DLTR — Dollar Tree Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DLTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands, discount-retail-turnaround, tariff-mitigation Thesis: Pure-play multi-price discount turnaround post-Family-Dollar divestiture. Q1 (May 28, 2026) beat-and-raise: comps +3.5%, adj EPS $1.74 (+38% YoY), GM +120bps, FY guide raised to $6.70–7.10. Stock gapped +18% to ~$113 and held ~$114. Narrative accelerating, but the binary catalyst has passed; next print ~September, so a fresh ~$114 entry is mid-consolidation, not a breakout. Invalidation trigger: Daily/weekly close below ~$100 fills the May-28 earnings gap and negates the beat-and-raise breakout; or any FY26 adjusted-EPS guide cut below $6.70, or Q2 comps decelerating below the +3.5% Q1 pace. --- ### DNTH — Dianthus Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DNTH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals, complement-biotech, autoimmune-neuromuscular Next catalyst: 2026-05-04 Thesis: The narrative already paid out: gMG Phase 2 read positive (Sep-2025), CIDP CAPTIVATE hit an early Phase 3 GO (Mar-2026), sell-side fully caught up ($121 consensus PT, $16→$96 52-wk run) and a $719M raise at $81 closed Mar-12. Now consolidating exactly on the $81 offering shelf with no near-term binary the pre-readout accumulation edge is spent; a fresh case rests on holding $81 into MMN topline (2H-26). Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the $81.00 Mar-2026 offering shelf (institutional cost basis) on >1.5x avg volume; OR MMN MoMeNtum Phase 2 topline (2H-26) misses MG-ADL-equivalent endpoint; OR CAPTIVATE Part B randomized-withdrawal fails to confirm the early-GO responder signal. --- ### DOCN — DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DOCN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds, agentic-ai, ai-cloud-infrastructure Thesis: Agentic-AI-beneficiary re-rating: Q1 beat + raised FY26 guide (2026-05-06) drove a one-week sell-side cluster ($175–200 PTs) and a May 4–8 rip alongside MU/RKLB. But the catalyst is a month stale and KeyBanc's 2026-06-03 $200 initiation marks sell-side catch-up a MATURING entry. Buy the 20-EMA pullback, do not chase the upgrade peak. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the May post-earnings gap base / loses the rising 20-EMA; or the Q2 print (~early Aug) fails to raise FY26 guide or shows AI/GPU revenue growth decelerating below ~30% YoY. --- ### DUOT — Duos Technologies Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DUOT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: small-cap-ai-momentum, ai-data-center-buildout, edge-ai-infrastructure Thesis: Railcar-inspection microcap re-rated as an AI edge data-center/GPUaaS operator; the 2026-06-05 USD.AI $98.1M non-dilutive, off-balance-sheet facility funds the 2,304 B300 GPUs for the $176M Hydra Host contract, gutting the dilution bear case and signaling offtake demand exists. Theme ACCELERATING, ~$14 near highs, RSI ~58 but still a 2H-2026 execution bet against a $2.72M Q1 base. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $11 (post-contract base breakdown, ~20%+ off the $15.28 high); OR a dilutive equity secondary off the $250M S-3 shelf at/below market; OR Q2-2026 print (~mid-Aug) showing Hydra Host/Edge AI deployment slipping with the >$50M FY guide cut. --- ### DXCM — DexCom, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DXCM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: CGM leader re-accelerating off a beaten-down base: the CONNECT trial (6/8) showing G7 cuts A1C 1.6% in Type 2 non-insulin patients opens a structural TAM, and the first OTC pediatric CGM clearance (6/12) plus an $85–95 analyst PT cluster confirm the leg. The catch it's an unconfirmed recovery bounce below the 200-EMA, so a fresh entry here is buying extension after the ADA pop. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~the published invalidation level (recovery-base shelf and round number), or a weekly close back under the 20-EMA either marks the unconfirmed bounce as failed. Also an Abbott Libre price/share headline, a pump-partner integration loss, or the medtech theme losing ACCELERATING status. --- ### ELVN — Enliven Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ELVN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, binary-catalyst-biotech, oncology-tki Next catalyst: 2026-06-11 Thesis: De-risking BCR::ABL1 story: ELVN-001 Phase 1 ENABLE update hits an EHA oral June 11 (T-4) plus webcast 69% cumulative MMR (60/120mg) and 52% in asciminib-pretreated CML, no MTD, $462.6M cash into 1H-2029, Phase 3 ENABLE-2 launching 2H-2026. ACCELERATING, but the abstract is partially leaked so June 11 is incremental probe the binary, don't pay full event premium. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$28 (loses pre-EHA base); OR June 11 EHA data shows no deepening of molecular response on longer follow-up or a new Grade ≥3 arterial/cardiovascular signal; OR ENABLE-2 Phase 3 slips past 2H-2026 / FDA non-alignment on dose; OR Novartis next-gen asciminib data closes the tolerability gap. --- ### EVC — Entravision Communication URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/EVC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: legacy-media-adtech-pivot, programmatic-adtech, small-cap-ai-momentum Thesis: Broadcaster-to-adtech pivot validated: Q1 (5/5) ATS/Smadex revenue +204% YoY to $154.55M, swing to $20.7M op income, EPS $0.13 vs -$0.53. Accelerating fundamental leg, but no 30-day catalyst and the TelevisaUnivision affiliation expiry (12/31) is the overhang. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the ~$7.40 post-print breakout shelf (May 6 gap fill); or ATS segment revenue decelerating under +75% YoY at the Q2 print (~early Aug 2026); or a confirmed non-renewal of the TelevisaUnivision affiliation (expires 2026-12-31). --- ### FLEX — Flex Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FLEX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-datacenter-power, industrial-power-ai, ai-infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-06-22 Thesis: Legacy EMS giant re-rating into an AI data-center power play: CPI segment +31% to $1.8B (Q4 FY26), spinning off Q1 CY2027 (SpinCo guide +65-75% FY27). Hard near-term catalyst: S&P 500 inclusion effective 2026-06-22. ~9% pullback to ~$152 from the $166.86 ATH cools the May RSI-81 blowoff into a cleaner setup. Theme ACCELERATING but mainstream. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the rising 20-EMA / loss of the ~$145 post-Q4 breakout shelf; or S&P inclusion (2026-06-22) passes with a close back under $150 (event front-run and sold); or CPI growth guides below the +65-75% SpinCo target. --- ### FORM — FormFactor, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FORM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment, hbm-memory, advanced-packaging Next catalyst: 2026-06-25 Thesis: Probe-card HBM/advanced-packaging pick-and-shovel re-accelerating post-print: the 2026-06-05 Evercore upgrade to Outperform, PT $155 (~20% above the April $125–130 cluster), confirms the ~2026-05-06 Q1 guide held. Narrative ACCELERATING; no fresh price levels keep sizing at probe until a clean 20-EMA hold confirms. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below the pre-upgrade base (failed 2026-06-05 breakout), OR Micron's ~2026-06-25 fiscal-Q3 call guides HBM capex flat/down, OR a second shop downgrades FORM reversing Evercore's Outperform. Sustained loss of $95 = structural break. --- ### FSLR — First Solar, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FSLR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: solar-clean-energy, ai-power-demand, domestic-manufacturing-reshoring Next catalyst: 2026-07-05 Thesis: GLJ's 2026-05-27 capitulation to a $315 Buy completed FSLR's re-rate from value-trap to policy-moated AI-power prime after the Q1 beat; solar theme ACCELERATING. But the catalysts already fired, price sits at the top Street PT ~18% above the 200-DMA, and the 2026-06-05 rate-hike scare (Nasdaq −3%) just turned macro hostile for rate-sensitive solar. Fresh entry chases the parabola into a tightening tape. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-EMA / $258 200-DMA breakout shelf; or FY26 net-sales guide cut below the $4.9B floor at Q2 (2026-07-23); or US safeguard/AD-CVD tariffs struck down, reopening cheap Chinese module imports. --- ### GENI — Genius Sports Limited URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GENI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: prediction-markets-sports-betting Next catalyst: 2026-07-19 Thesis: Picks-and-shovels sports-data toll-booth under the prediction-market boom; narrative accelerating since the June 10 Polymarket/Liga MX data deal, landing into the live World Cup (final ~July 19) volume surge. Q1 raised FY26 EBITDA guide to $270–280M, but direct prediction-market revenue is still unquantified. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $5.70 (June base low) voids the post-Polymarket breakout; or the Q2 print (~early Aug) shows no disclosed revenue from prediction-market data deals and the FY26 EBITDA guide ($270–280M) is walked back. --- ### GFS — GlobalFoundries Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GFS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Next catalyst: 2026-06-24 Thesis: Silicon-photonics + quantum-foundry pivot accelerating: Keysight/Sivers/DOE-Genesis partnerships clustered 6/2–6/3 on top of a Q1 beat and first-ever dividend. Near-term cap is Mubadala's $1.91B block (5/27) supply overhang the clean leg is a 52w-high breakout reclaim once that block is absorbed, not a chase into the overhang. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~the published invalidation level (loses post-earnings consolidation floor / rising 50-EMA); OR Micron's ~6/24 print de-rates the semi cohort; OR silicon-photonics partnership cadence goes quiet >4 weeks and the optionality re-rate unwinds. --- ### GGAL — Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GGAL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: argentina-financials, argentina-macro-reform, em-disinflation Next catalyst: 2026-07-11 Thesis: Argentina reform trade reaccelerating: Milei's Oct-26 2025 midterm landslide plus May CPI at an 8-month low (2.1%, released June 11) revive the disinflation narrative. GGAL, the liquid large-cap bank proxy, has bounced ~35% off its $40 200-day test toward $54 a momentum continuation, though Q1 net income fell 66% YoY and price sits below the $58 50-day. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the $48–$50 reclaimed support shelf negates the recovery leg (next stop $40/200-day). Macro thesis breaks on a forced peso devaluation / abandonment of the crawling band, or monthly CPI re-accelerating above 3.5% for two prints. --- ### HIMS — Hims & Hers Health, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HIMS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: glp1-weight-loss, dtc-telehealth, consumer-health-subscription, longevity-peptides Thesis: GLP-1 reaccel guide (Q2 +25-28% YoY off Q1's +4% trough) now paired with a fresh peptides/longevity leg: new CMO hired 2026-06-04 (+7% day) and Canaccord $32 / Needham $35 PTs printed ABOVE spot. Real reaccel, but extended after a froth pop into no binary catalyst before the ~Aug 10 Q2 print. Violently squeeze-coded a6. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $24 forfeits the 50-day MA (~$24.31) and the CFO's $24.23 Form-4 basis recovery structure broken. Also breaks on any Novo Nordisk partnership-termination headline, or Q2 revenue below the $680M low-end guide on the ~2026-08-10 print. --- ### HIMX — Himax Technologies, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HIMX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-smart-glasses-silicon, co-packaged-optics-cpo, display-driver-semis Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: AR/smart-glasses display-silicon narrative broke a multi-year base to an all-time high ($24.19, 2026-06-03) after the +38% Q1 reaction and Baird's $10→$30 raise. ACCELERATING: WiseEye AI + LCoS + CPO inflections stacking, Q2 guided +10–13% QoQ. Extended and retail-flagged, so a probe-on-strength, not a fat pitch at the high. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$20 May-earnings breakout shelf (June low $20.985); or Q2 revenue at the 2026-08-06 print below the +10% QoQ guide floor (~$219M) or gross margin failing to hold ~32%. --- ### HIVE — HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HIVE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds, btc-miner-ai-pivot, sovereign-ai-infrastructure, bitcoin-mining Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: BTC-miner→AI-compute re-rating is now live: ~2026-06-01 BUZZ HPC unveiled a 320 MW Greater Toronto AI gigafactory (100k+ GPUs, $660M ARR target by 2028) on $35M contracted ARR, triggering an analyst-raise cluster (B. Riley $8, Cantor $4.60 OW) and a ~+90% 30-day run. The HPC growth engine moved from promise to hard numbers but the entry is parabolic and a capex-funding equity raise is the overhang. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the late-May/June breakout base (fills the gigafactory/analyst-raise gap = failed breakout), OR the next monthly update shows BUZZ HPC contracted ARR flat-to-down vs the $35M reported, OR a dilutive equity raise to fund the 320 MW buildout. Also dead on a BTC weekly breakdown. --- ### HNGE — Hinge Health, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HNGE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: digital-health-platforms, virtual-care-msk, wellness-tech-ipo-class Thesis: Digital-MSK re-rate broke out: HNGE cleared the $62.18 Aug-2025 ATH to new highs (~$64, +29% in 30 days) on a fresh Canaccord PT raise (2026-06-04/05), confirming the post-Q1 momentum leg rather than topping. Accelerating, but extended, at/above most analyst targets, and printing heavy insider distribution into the breakout with no hard catalyst until the 2026-08-04 Q2 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below ~$58 a failed breakout surrendering the $62.18 prior-ATH shelf now acting as support / the rising 20-week EMA OR Q2 FY2026 (2026-08-04) revenue below the $194M guide floor. --- ### HRI — Herc Holdings Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HRI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, data-center-buildout, equipment-rental-mega-projects Next catalyst: 2026-06-09 Thesis: Equipment-rental roll-up in recovery (+55% off the $88.45 low to ~$137) on data-center/mega-project rental demand + the now-integrated H&E synergy ramp. Bellwether URI raised FY26 guidance (2026-04-23), confirming an ACCELERATING theme. 2nd-order AI-power play but levered 3.96x; binary back-half-synergy proof is the ~Jul-28 Q2 print (outside the window). Jun-9 Wells Fargo fireside is the next live tell. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$120 (rising 20-week EMA / recovery-leg support); OR net leverage rises above ~4.25x on the Q2 print; OR FY26 adj-EBITDA guide cut below the $2.0B floor; OR the $100–120M revenue-synergy target is walked back. --- ### HTLD — Heartland Express, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HTLD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: freight-trucking-logistics, freight-cycle-recovery Thesis: Freight-cycle inflection accelerating truckload spot rates +23% off Q4 lows, OTRI past 14%, KNX guiding a sharp Q2 rebound. HTLD has run ~69% in three months to its 52-week high on the recovery and balance-sheet deleveraging, but the operating ratio is still >100 and the stock is pricing the turn well ahead of the P&L. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (~$14), or national truckload spot rates rolling back under ~$2.50/mi all-in with OTRI falling below 10% a supply-driven recovery stalling while the equity already discounts a completed one. --- ### HUM — Humana Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HUM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: managed-care-health-insurance Thesis: Medicare Advantage margin-recovery trade: April's final 2027 CMS rate (+2.48%, ~$13B) cleared the overhang and HUM carries the most MA torque. Doubled off $163 to a $350 ATH (2026-06-04) as even bears lift PTs (MS $217→$249, BofA $340) but it now trades above every target with no hard catalyst until the ~late-July Q2 print. Strong tape, late narrative. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $305 (May breakout shelf) on rising volume, OR weekly close back under the 50-DMA (~$300), OR FY2026 adjusted EPS guide cut below $9.00, OR star-ratings appeal lost with quantified 2027 quality-bonus impairment. --- ### IESC — IES Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IESC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, data-center-power-buildout, electrical-infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-06-09 Thesis: Data-center electrical "shovels" play; Q2 FY26 (2026-05-01) backlog +62% to $3.9B, Communications +35% YoY fundamentals still accelerating. But +37% in a month into the $713.82 ATH with ~$108.6M of insider selling means a fresh entry buys a parabolic extension, not a pullback. Soft catalyst 2026-06-09 (Wells Fargo conf); next hard print ~2026-07-31. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-EMA (~$600); OR Q3 FY26 print (~2026-07-31) shows backlog below $3.9B or Communications revenue growth under +20% YoY signals the data-center order book rolling over. A controlling-holder secondary/block sale also breaks it. --- ### KEYS — Keysight Technologies, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KEYS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical, picks-and-shovels-ai, ai-test-validation, optical-1600g, custom-silicon-bringup Next catalyst: 2026-05-21 Thesis: Q2 FY26 binary (2026-05-20) resolved bullish all-time-high orders/rev/EPS/FCF and a raised guide, and the sell-side caught up in one week ($350–$425 PT cluster vs ~$200 prior median). The first-mover upgrade edge is now consumed; the structural AI-test narrative is intact but the easy re-rate is done. Best fresh entry is a pullback to the post-print breakout shelf, not chasing extension. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close that fills the 2026-05-20 earnings gap on >1.5x avg volume, OR any hyperscaler (MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN) cuts 2026 capex guide, OR Q3 FY26 print shows book-to-bill back below 1.0 / commercial-comm decelerating. Any one = thesis broken, no average-down. --- ### KGS — Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KGS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, behind-the-meter-power, ai-data-center-power, nat-gas-infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Gas-compression operator re-rated as a behind-the-meter data-center power play. Q1 (2026-05-11) cleared the binary: record EBITDA $190M, FY guide raised to $820–860M, and a disclosed 650 MW capacity + 1.3 GW pipeline replacing the old 100 MW anchor. Discovery leg now MATURING 14 desks, ~$82 consensus, stock 16% off the $77.68 high into the prior-ATH support zone. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$58 (post-print gap base / prior-ATH retest shelf); OR Q2 print (~early Aug) with the 1.3 GW pipeline still unsigned and no data-center contracts beyond the 100 MW anchor; OR a Power capex or FY26 EBITDA guide cut. --- ### KLAC — KLA Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KLAC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, semicap-wfe, advanced-packaging Thesis: Process-control toll-taker on the AI buildout: custom-silicon design-start proliferation + advanced packaging (>70% YoY) + re-accelerating memory WFE, with FY2026 guided to high-teens growth and 2H acceleration. Narrative is ACCELERATING, but a 10:1 split, 21% dividend hike and PT-raise cluster have stretched price (~$254) above all raised analyst targets into a six-week catalyst vacuum before the 2026-07-23 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$210 post-split breakout shelf; or 2026-07-23 Q4 revenue under the $3.375B guidance floor / management walking back high-teens FY2026 growth; or 2026 core WFE outlook cut below ~$120B. --- ### KNX — Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KNX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: freight-trucking-logistics Thesis: Freight-cycle inflection accelerating: tightening truckload capacity + bid season targeting mid-to-high-single/double-digit contract increases repricing late Q2 into H2 2026, with KNX the bellwether. Analyst PTs cluster $86–94 vs ~$82 spot. The late-July Q2 print ($0.45–0.49 adj-EPS guide) is the binary that proves or breaks the recovery the tape has already paid for. Invalidation trigger: Q2 2026 (~late-July) adjusted EPS below the $0.45 guide floor, OR bid-season contract increases at low-single-digit vs guided mid/high-single-to-double-digit, OR a weekly close back below the ~$72 May breakout shelf any one ends the truckload-rate-inflection leg. --- ### LGN — Legence Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LGN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, ai-datacenter-buildout Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: AI-datacenter MEP pick-and-shovel thesis converted from deck-slides to booked revenue: Q1 (reported 5/14) rev $1.04B +105% YoY, FY guide raised to $4.1–4.3B, record $5.4B backlog booked into late 2028. Stock ran $54 secondary → $107 high, now ~-22% to ~$84. Theme accelerating, but current entry is a pullback-in-uptrend capped by recurring Blackstone supply. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$76 (post-Q1 breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA) OR Q2 2026 revenue below the $1.05B guided floor / any FY2026 guide cut from $4.1–4.3B OR a fresh Blackstone 424B block at a discount the bid fails to absorb. --- ### MCHP — Microchip Technology Incorporated URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MCHP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, data-center-interconnect, semis-cyclical-recovery, ai-power-sic Thesis: Beaten-down broad-line semi re-rating on a freshly disclosed AI-data-center leg: DCS unit +62.9% YoY (Mar-26 qtr), $302.7M CY25 guided to ~$500M CY26 (+65%). But the 06-01 guidance pop (+8%) has round-tripped to the 50-day EMA near $87 a make-or-break breakout retest, not a runaway. DCS is only a high-single-digit slice of revenue; the rest rides the MCU cyclical recovery. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$86 (50-day EMA) fails the post-guidance breakout retest; OR DCS CY2026 guide cut below ~$500M or YoY growth under 50% at the ~2026-08-06 FY27 Q1 print kills the re-rating leg. --- ### MGTX — MeiraGTx Holdings plc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MGTX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, gene-therapy-aav, fda-regulatory-catalyst Thesis: Gene-therapy shots-on-goal re-rate has cooled from ACCELERATING to MATURING after the Apr cluster (J&J bota-vec buyback, xerostomia Breakthrough, Hologen up-to-$430M). Stock rolled ~24% off the $11.85 high and on 2026-06-05 closed $9.00, testing the April-raise level. No hard 30-day binary base-test, not a catalyst sprint. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $8.00 forfeits the post-deal base (the $9.00 April-raise level, tested now, is the first warning); or a CRL / clinical hold on any program; or xerostomia BLA slipping past H1 2027 or AAV-GAD Phase 3 failing to initiate by Q3 2026. --- ### MPWR — Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MPWR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-datacenter-power, industrial-power-ai, ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: AI data-center power narrative still ACCELERATING (Q1 Enterprise Data ~2x YoY to $262.8M; Q2 guide ~$900M midpoint, +35% YoY), but a Feb-26 non-reliance restatement and heavy CEO/insider selling are a fresh overhang. A 10% flush on 6/5 to $1,481 finally brought price to the 50-day (~$1,455) entry quality improved vs the early-June blow-off. Probe-able pullback if the 50-day holds; restatement + insider wall cap conviction below HIGH. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the 50-day SMA (~$1,455) not reclaimed within a week turns the pullback into distribution toward the 20-week EMA (~$1,250) / 200-day (~$1,182). Fundamental: Q2 print (2026-08-03) revenue below the $890M guide floor, or Enterprise Data's first sequential decline. --- ### MRX — Marex Group plc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MRX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, commodity-vol-brokers Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: Roll-up compounder confirmed by a record Q1 (reported 2026-05-06: revenue +48% to $692M, adj PBT +59%), with the 2026-06-01 Levmet bolt-on extending a 5-deal-in-12-months cadence. But price has run +39.9% in 90 days to ~$55.89, now at the $57.43 consensus PT and just under the $58.62 high the re-rating leg is largely spent. Accumulate pullbacks toward the rising 20-EMA rather than chase the 52-week high. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (~$49–50 zone, validate on tape), OR a legacy-holder (Helikon/CVC/BXC) secondary-offering announcement (gap-exit), OR Q2 print (~early Aug) showing organic growth below ~+15% YoY or margin under ~20%, OR sustained OVX/GVZ compression below pre-2026 ranges that kills the market-making engine. --- ### MYRG — MYR Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MYRG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: grid-power-transmission, ai-power-infrastructure, datacenter-buildout Next catalyst: 2026-06-10 Thesis: AI/datacenter power-buildout lifting grid electrical contractors; MYRG validated it with a record Q1 (rev $1.0B +20%, EPS $2.99 beat ~45%, backlog $2.84B) and raised FY guide to ~12%. Theme ACCELERATING + cluster-confirmed, but after +60%/month it's consolidating ~8% below its $484.71 ATH with clustered insider selling and no public catalyst before Q2 (2026-07-29) fresh entry here buys chop, not the launch. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the rising 20-EMA (~$410) voids a probe; trend breaks on a weekly close below the 50-day SMA (~$375). Thesis cracks if Q2 (2026-07-29) backlog falls under $2.84B or gross margin reverts below ~12%. --- ### NEO — NeoGenomics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NEO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: Oncology-diagnostics turnaround accelerating: NGS revenue +26% and the RaDaR ST MRD launch (post-Natera patent win) drove a Q1 beat, a raised FY guide ($797–803M) and an analyst upgrade cluster (Leerink to $25). The leg is real but extended at $11+ near 52-week highs, with no dated catalyst until the Aug 5 print favors a pullback entry over a chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$9.50 post-Q1 breakout shelf (loses the rising 20-EMA); or at the Aug 5 print, FY2026 revenue guide cut below the $797M floor or NGS growth decelerating under ~20%. --- ### NOK — Nokia Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NOK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical, ai-datacenter-networking, legacy-tech-ai-revival Thesis: Legacy telecom-equipment maker re-rating as an AI-data-center-networking play: Nvidia's ~$1B stake at $6.01/sh (Oct 2025) plus the 2026-05-21 AI Networking Lab (AMD, Keysight) drove a multi-month run to a 52-week high on 2026-05-26. Theme reads ACCELERATING, but tape has stalled (pause/falling prints 05-28→06-05) amid peak mainstream coverage late-stage digestion. Edge is a higher-low retest, not a chase of the paused high. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the late-May breakout base / rising 20-week EMA on expanding volume; or Q2 (~2026-07-23) Network Infrastructure / data-center revenue flat-to-down YoY confirms an AI re-rate that is multiple-only. --- ### NXT — Nextpower Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NXT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: solar-clean-energy-revival, industrial-power-ai, ai-datacenter-power, battery-storage Thesis: AI-data-center-power re-rate is lifting NXT from solar-tracker picks-and-shovels toward power-infra platform: 2026-05-28 FY2027 guide raise ($4.0-4.4B rev) + $365M Prevalon storage buy + 10-desk PT cluster ($149-182). Theme ACCELERATING, but the catalyst is now ~10 days stale and news flow dried up after 06-03 this is late post-print drift, not a fresh trigger. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 2026-05-28 guidance-gap shelf / rising 20-EMA; OR FY2027 revenue guide cut back below the new $4.0B floor; OR 3+ analyst PT cuts within 14 days. No spot price supplied confirm price holds above the post-print breakout before sizing. --- ### ON — ON Semiconductor Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ON/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: Company narrative intact AI data-center power re-rate (NVIDIA 800VDC/MGX content step-up, Q2 guide: AI revenue to double YoY in 2026) but the tape broke: -11.05% to $117.26 on 2026-06-05 in the worst SOX session since March 2020 (Broadcom soft AI guide + dead rate-cut odds). ACCELERATING narrative, tightening regime; buyable only if the ~$113 20-week EMA holds. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-week EMA (~$113); or Q2 print (~late July) shows AI data-center revenue not tracking the guided "double YoY in 2026"; or NVIDIA awards the 800V MGX power sockets to Infineon/Navitas over onsemi. --- ### ONTO — Onto Innovation Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ONTO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment, advanced-packaging, hbm-supply-chain, ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Semicap/advanced-packaging metrology story is intact but the April momentum leg is spent: the 2026-05-05 Q1 came in-line ($292M as pre-announced, EPS $1.42 down YoY) with Q2 guide merely reiterated, and the stock derated ~20% from $316 to ~$253. Sell-side has now fully caught up (Deutsche Bank init Buy $350, 8 Strong Buy). MATURING wants a pullback-to-support re-entry on a higher low, not a chase. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the June-2026 consolidation low (~$250 / 2026-06-05 low $250.22); OR weekly close below the rising 20-EMA; OR Q2 (qtr-end 2026-06-30) revenue reported below the $320–330M guide; OR a top-3 logic/memory customer cutting HBM/advanced-packaging capex. --- ### PENN — PENN Entertainment, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PENN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: prediction-markets-sports-betting Next catalyst: 2026-07-13 Thesis: Legacy regional-casino operator's digital turnaround is inflecting: after exiting the ESPN Bet money-pit (2025-12-01), iCasino NGR ran +362% YoY and the interactive EBITDA loss narrowed to $10.8M from $89M, guidance was raised, and Q4-2026 interactive profitability is targeted. Activist HG Vora holds three board seats. Stock has ~doubled off $11.65 to the $21.94 52-week high accelerating but extended above the $20.44 consensus PT. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the ~$18 breakout shelf (forfeits the move off $11.65); or next print shows iCasino NGR growth halving / interactive EBITDA loss re-widening; or CFTC finalizes rules nationally legalizing and expanding sports-event contracts. --- ### POWI — Power Integrations, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/POWI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-data-center-power, gan-power-semis, ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: 800VDC AI-data-center power theme ACCELERATING (Navitas joined NVIDIA MGX 2026-06-03; POWI Kyber aux-PSU designs 2026-06-01), but POWI broke -9.7% on 2026-06-05 in a sector selloff and is now testing the $74-78 May breakout shelf. Shelf hold vs fail is the near-term tell; next hard catalyst (Q2) ~2 months out. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$74 (May breakout shelf / rising 50-DMA) confirms the breakout failed; OR GaN-power cohort (NVTS, MPWR, VICR) rolling over together; OR Q2 print ~2026-08-06 shows no AI data-center design-win/bookings traction to support ~53x fwd P/E. --- ### PRM — Perimeter Solutions, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PRM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: wildfire-fire-safety, defense-contracts-afff, specialty-chemicals Next catalyst: 2026-07-01 Thesis: Wildfire fire-retardant monopoly (PHOS-CHEK) into a peak season running ~195% of the 10-yr acres-burned average the live demand thesis is confirming. Q1 +74% to $125M, ~$1.3B USFS contract retained, $500M DLA foam deal ramping 2027. Price MATURING ~14% off high, RSI reset to 46 on MA support buy the pullback toward the 20-day, not the $35 chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$26 (loses rising 200-day / post-earnings floor); or NIFC YTD acres-burned pace falls back under the 10-yr average into July (now ~195%); or a Q2 (~2026-08-05) net-sales or adj-EBITDA miss vs the +74% Q1 trajectory. --- ### RLAY — Relay Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RLAY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, pi3k-alpha-breast-cancer, fda-breakthrough-designation Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Binary resolved bullish: zovegalisib (RLY-2608) posted ~11-mo PFS, won FDA Breakthrough Therapy, and is funded into 2029 sell-side re-rated to $26–$28 (from $18–$21) as shares broke to a 52-wk high $17.33. The leg now is the post-data momentum re-rate, but entry is extended after a +20% ASCO surge and +348% TTM run; a higher-low retest of the $14 breakout shelf is the cleaner entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $14 (round-trips the post-ASCO breakout shelf); OR a rival selective PI3Kα program (Scorpion STX-478, Lilly) prints ≥11-mo PFS with comparable/cleaner safety before ReDiscover-2 reads; OR XBI loses its 200DMA (sector risk-off). --- ### RMBS — Rambus Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RMBS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, memory-interface-silicon, hbm-memory-bandwidth, ai-pc-memory Thesis: AI memory-interface royalty (DDR5 RCD + HBM4E IP) still compounding double-digit on product, but the parabolic leg topped at $174.10 (2026-06-03) and is rolling ~9% lower to ~$158 by 2026-06-05 amid a COO share sale and a CFO exit. Theme accelerating; the stock-specific setup is now a first pullback with management noise, not a clean entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-week EMA (low-$130s); OR failure to hold the ~$150 pullback shelf with no higher low above $154; OR Q2 product revenue tracking below the $95M guide floor / royalties sliding sub-$65M; OR Micron and memory-interface peers break down (AI-memory cycle rolls over). --- ### RVMD — Revolution Medicines, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RVMD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, kras-oncology Next catalyst: 2026-05-15 Thesis: KRAS-franchise narrative maturing, not breaking: ASCO-grade RASolute-302 data (daraxonrasib doubles PDAC survival, ~60% death-risk cut), NEJM publication and FDA expanded access have walked analyst PTs into a $182–195 cluster with the stock at all-time highs. The discovery leg is spent and coverage has gone mainstream; the asymmetric entry is a pullback to the $142 base, not a chase at the highs. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $142 (April secondary clearing price, now multi-week base/floor); or FDA Refuse-to-File / Complete Response Letter / clinical hold on daraxonrasib; or weekly close below the rising 20-EMA while XBI loses 52-week support. --- ### SEZL — Sezzle Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SEZL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: crypto-financials-exchange Thesis: BNPL super-app reaccelerating: Q1 (5/6) beat with GMV +37.3%, FY26 guide raised to 30-35% rev growth, sell-side now chasing (B. Riley to $141 from $117 on 6/2). Lone fintech leader with no peer cluster; +57.9% in 3mo into a ~2-month earnings gap momentum confirmed, but no fresh near-term catalyst for max size. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$95 (rising 50-EMA / post-Q1 breakout shelf), or Q2 print (~Aug) showing GMV growth decelerating below 30% YoY vs Q1's +37.3%. --- ### SKM — SK Telecom Co., Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SKM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: nvidia-physical-ai, ai-datacenter-gpu, ai-telco-pivot, korea-re-rating Next catalyst: 2026-05-09 Thesis: Beaten-down dividend telecom re-rating into an AI-infrastructure name: Q1 (2026-05-09) AI-datacenter revenue +89% YoY, breach recovery (dividend reinstated, +210k net adds), and Jensen Huang naming SKT a Nvidia "Physical AI" partner at GTC Taipei (2026-06-01) drove a +19% gap to a four-year high. Narrative now real; entry sits on top of a vertical leg. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the ~$37 June-breakout shelf (fills the 2026-06-01 Jensen-GTC gap); or AI-datacenter revenue decelerating below ~40% YoY at the ~August Q2 print; or MSIT reimposing administrative guidance / telecom price caps. --- ### SNEX — StoneX Group Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNEX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: fcm-derivatives-clearing, market-volatility-financials, brokerage-ma-consolidation Next catalyst: 2026-07-07 Thesis: Fiscal Q2 (reported 2026-05-06) was a record blowout net operating revenue +70% YoY, net income +143%, ROE 26.5% as the R.J. O'Brien integration made StoneX the largest US non-bank FCM. Trend is strong near 52-week highs ($125 vs ~$115); the 3-for-2 split effective 2026-07-20 is the next momentum vehicle into the early-August fiscal Q3 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-week average (high-$90s/low-$100s zone), or fiscal Q3 (~early Aug) showing net-operating-revenue growth decelerating to single digits YoY / listed-derivatives volumes rolling over from the ~100M-contract Q2 pace either breaks the post-RJO acceleration. --- ### SNX — TD SYNNEX Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: it-distribution-channel, ai-infra-buildout, enterprise-device-refresh Next catalyst: 2026-06-25 Thesis: IT-distribution re-rating, not a chip play: a cluster of PT hikes (JPM Overweight $298 on 5/27, BofA $270, UBS $265) drove SNX to a fresh ATH ~$286 on Q1 gross billings +24% YoY. The Q2 print, now pulled forward to 2026-06-25, is the binary into a seasonally guide-down quarter with the stock extended at ATH and sell-side caution starting to surface (Zacks cut to Hold 6/1). Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the post-upgrade breakout shelf ~$246 fills the 5/27 JPM gap and negates the momentum leg; OR Q2 revenue below the $16.1B guide-low on the 2026-06-25 print. --- ### SPXC — SPX Technologies, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SPXC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: grid-power-transmission Thesis: Data-center cooling breakout confirmed: SPXC reclaimed its 200-day near $210 and ran to $234 (~5% off the $246.68 high) on the 2026-04-30 beat-and-raise that hiked DC-cooling growth +50%→+70%. Narrative accelerating, but a fresh entry at $234 pays up into the high with no company catalyst until the ~2026-07-30 Q2 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$210 breakout shelf (200-day MA); or the ~2026-07-30 Q2 print cutting the +70% data-center cooling growth guide or showing HVAC margins worsening beyond the flagged ramp drag. --- ### SRAD — Sportradar Group AG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SRAD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: prediction-markets-sports-betting Next catalyst: 2026-06-29 Thesis: Beaten-down sports-data name re-rating into the data/integrity infrastructure layer for prediction markets after the 2026-06-08 Kalshi deal (Needham PT $19→$23). Theme is accelerating but price sits below all moving averages a narrative inflection off a depressed base, not a confirmed breakout. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below the post-Kalshi-deal shelf ~$14.50 voids the inflection; a close under the $11.66 52-week low confirms downtrend resumption. --- ### STRL — Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STRL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, ai-datacenter-capex Thesis: Data-center site-development narrative accelerating: Q1 revenue +92% to $825.7M, FY26 EPS guide hiked to $16.50-17.15, and a rising analyst PT cluster ($922-956, Keybanc/Oppenheimer/Cantor). Real upgrade cycle, but price is extended ~+50% off the 05-05 gap with no 20-EMA reset, and the next hard catalyst (Q2) is ~8 weeks out strength into extension, not a clean base. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $660 post-earnings gap base / rising 20-EMA, OR FY26 EPS guide cut below $16.50, OR theme industrial-power-ai exits ACCELERATING (drops to SATURATED/DEAD). --- ### TMC — TMC the metals company Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TMC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: critical-minerals-supply-chain, deep-sea-mining, us-resource-independence, commodity-materials-rare-earths, defense-industrial-base Thesis: ~$6.36 vs $11.35 high. Probe-to-medium; a dilutive raise before 2026-07-31 is the overhang. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $5.00 (breaks the higher-low re-accel structure off the $3.93 low); or a large dilutive raise (>$100M / >15M shares) to fund the Mesabi 2% royalty option by 2026-07-31; or NOAA stalling/rejecting the USA A application at the Federal Register/EIS stage. --- ### TNGX — Tango Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TNGX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, prmt5-inhibitors, mtap-deletion-cancers, synthetic-lethality-oncology Next catalyst: 2026-04-25 Thesis: Binary PRMT5 catalyst resolved upside: vopimetostat's Oct-2025 Ph1/2 data (27% ORR across 16 tumor types; 2L MTAP-deleted PDAC 25% ORR/7.2mo PFS; FDA-aligned 250mg) de-risked the asset and drove a $3→$28 re-rate. Now ~$20, digesting below the 50-day, funded into 2028, ~30% short float, analyst PTs $24–55. Next leg is the undated 2026 combo (daraxonrasib/zoldonrasib) readout that could open a 1L pancreatic pivotal path. Invalidation trigger: 2026 vopimetostat + daraxonrasib/zoldonrasib combo readout prints <20% ORR or a tolerability signal removing the 1L PDAC pivotal path; OR Amgen AMG 193 posts cleaner PDAC combo data; OR a weekly close loses the rising 200-day (~$13–14) or repeated failure to reclaim the 50-day (~$22.5). --- ### TSHA — Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSHA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, gene-therapy-aav, rett-syndrome-rare-disease, binary-catalyst-biotech Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Rett gene therapy narrative re-rated from clinical binary to BLA execution: FDA aligned on a single-arm pivotal with potential BLA off the REVEAL six-month interim, cash funded into 2028 kills the dilution overhang, and Part A shows 100% response with zero SAEs to date. Q2 2026 Part A 12-month readout (by ~June 30) is the next binary. Invalidation trigger: Treatment-related SAE or dose-limiting toxicity in the Q2 2026 Part A 12-month readout; OR FDA reversal demanding a randomized sham-controlled pivotal; OR weekly close below ~$4.00 (breakout-base support) on above-average volume; OR a competitor prints clean Rett efficacy. --- ### TVTX — Travere Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TVTX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, rare-disease-approvals, orphan-drug-launch Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: FILSPARI FSGS launch confirming, not round-tripping: June brought a second target wave (Citi $62, HC Wainwright $67, Wedbush $55), a USPTO patent allowance + Orange Book listing extending exclusivity, and the 2026-06-02 Everest civorebrutinib deal broadening a one-drug story into a rare-renal franchise. Narrative re-accelerating off a maturing base, but extended after a ~2-month run and structure-blind this refresh. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the post-2026-04-14 approval base / rising 20-EMA on volume (ramp round-tripping); or Q2 print (~early Aug) FILSPARI net product revenue / FSGS units missing the elevated consensus or 2026 guide softened; or a second-wave analyst target cut after the $55–67 step-up; or rare-disease theme flipping saturated on a basket ramp-miss. --- ### TWLO — Twilio Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TWLO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms, voice-ai-agents, agentic-ai-infrastructure, legacy-software-ai-pivot Thesis: Legacy CPaaS repricing as agentic/voice-AI customer-engagement infrastructure; the 2026-06-01 Cowen "turnaround complete" +20% gap has EXTENDED, not faded Tigress $255 (06-11, new Street high) and a BofA "Fab Five" leadership tag (06-10), on a Q1'26 spine of +20% revenue and first-ever positive annual EPS. Narrative accelerating and cluster-confirmed; entry quality a week past a vertical gap is the open question. Q2 print 2026-07-30 is the binary. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the $197 pre-spike breakout shelf (fills the 2026-06-01 gap, negates the re-rating), or a Q2 print on 2026-07-30 with reported revenue growth <14% (FY-guide floor) or organic growth <9.5%. --- ### TXN — Texas Instruments Incorporated URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TXN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-datacenter-power, analog-cyclical-recovery, ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: Analog-cyclical recovery re-rating into an AI-data-center-power story (Q1 rev +19%, Data Center +~90% YoY), but TXN-specific easy money is banked: price stalls under the $331.51 ATH, above the ~$289 avg PT, and Wells Fargo's 2026-06-09 Equal-Weight/$300 target sits below market. Breakout above the ATH is the next leg; no catalyst until the 2026-07-21 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-EMA (~$293); or analog peers (ADI/MCHP/ON) print sequential order declines signaling the cycle re-rolls; or Q2 guide (2026-07-21) below the $5.0B revenue floor. --- ### U — Unity Software Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/U/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-adtech-engine, game-engine-software, ai-turnaround Thesis: Vector AI ad-engine turnaround still accelerating on fundamentals Strategic Grow +49% YoY Q1, guided +50-52% Q2, Vector ~80% bigger YoY toward $1B run-rate by YE26. But the breakout failed: shares round-tripped the Piper-$40 pop from $32.17 (Jun 2) back to $27.24 (Jun 12), now back-testing the $26-27 base into a 2-month catalyst vacuum until the ~Aug 11 print. A support test, not a chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$26 (pre-breakout shelf, $26.94 mid-May) = failed breakout, base lost. OR Q2 (~2026-08-11): Strategic Grow <+40% YoY vs guided +50-52%, or Vector sequential growth breaking its ~15% QoQ streak cuts the thesis pillar regardless of price. --- ### UMC — United Microelectronic Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UMC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-07-08 Thesis: Stale "sleepy ADR" tag broken: UMC re-rated ~3x off its $6.56 low to $21.63 (6/12) as the tape reprices an advanced-node/AI-photonics pivot. Q1 EPS doubled YoY (beat), monthly sales accelerating +10.8%→+17.78%, while sell-side targets ($7.40–$10.36) sit 50%+ below spot. Accelerating momentum; June sales print ~7/8 the next read. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the rising 50-day average (~$15.50), or June/July monthly sales YoY decelerating under ~+10% (reversing the +10.8%→+17.78% acceleration); an RSI>90 blowoff into the ~late-July Q2 print would also cap the leg. --- ### URGN — UroGen Pharma Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/URGN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer, drug-launch-ramp, urology-oncology Thesis: ZUSDURI launch ramp still accelerating: Q1'26 ZUSDURI revenue $29.2M (+109% QoQ), prescribers 102→256, and the 2026-06-10 Goldman fireside reframed it as $1B+ at <20% penetration. First/only FDA drug for LG-IR-NMIBC. But price is pressing the $32.37 52-wk high with the next hard tell (Q2 print) ~8 weeks out and no FY ZUSDURI guidance to anchor the multiple. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the early-June breakout shelf (~$24) or the rising 50-day; OR ZUSDURI Q2'26 net revenue below the $29.2M Q1 baseline, signaling the sequential launch ramp has stalled. --- ### VCYT — Veracyte, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VCYT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, precision-oncology-diagnostics, mrd-liquid-biopsy Thesis: Profitable precision-oncology dx compounder with a fresh third leg: the TrueMRD whole-genome MRD test won Medicare coverage (2026-05-15, launched 06-01), stacking on a Q1 beat-and-raise and ASCO OPTIMA/ENZAMET data. But all three binaries have fired, the stock sits at 52-wk highs after +40%/month, consensus PT (~$45) is below spot, and the CFO sold into the high (06-04) accelerating fundamentals, maturing tape, poor fresh-entry geometry at the top. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA / breakout retest (~$43); or Q2 2026 testing-revenue growth decelerating below +20% YoY (vs +26% in Q1) or Decipher prostate below +20% (vs +30%). --- ### VICR — Vicor Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VICR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai Thesis: AI-datacenter power-delivery narrative re-accelerated: 2026-05-26 Q2 guide raised to ~$142M (from ~$126M) on a new IP licensee, book-to-bill >2.0, backlog ~$300.6M. Stock reclaimed the $300 pivot (~$306, 2026-06-12) after a blowoff-and-pullback. Momentum re-firing, but insiders keep selling and price now sits above the ~$282.50 consensus target. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the reclaimed ~$300 pivot (reopens the $271.04 06-05 low), or Q2 (~late July) revenue under the raised ~$142M guide / book-to-bill back below 1.0. --- ### VMI — Valmont Industries, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VMI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: grid-power-transmission Thesis: Grid-transmission buildout going structural FERC Order 1920 + AI data-center load driving multi-year utility-structure demand; Q1 (~4/21) beat and raised guide confirmed Infrastructure leadership, and the theme flipped ACCELERATING in early June. Quality lower-beta #2 vs VRT/GEV; extended into mid-70s RSI, so a pullback-to-20-week-EMA or relative-strength trigger beats chasing. No earnings until ~late July. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-week EMA, OR Q2 print (~2026-07-22) showing Infrastructure decelerating to mid-single-digit growth with a full-year guide cut, OR grid-power-transmission theme flipping SATURATED with VRT/GEV/PWR rolling over together. --- ### WDC — Western Digital Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WDC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, memory-storage-supercycle, hyperscaler-capex Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: AI storage/memory supercycle validated post-print; sell-side re-rating violently (Citi $405→$685 on 2026-06-02, Barclays $620, WF/Evercore $575). Theme ACCELERATING but mature fastest-growing ETF, Micron +18% to Nasdaq records, first 'AI bubble' warning (2026-06-06) flag a crowded late-stage leg. No catalyst in 30d; next print ~late July. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA on above-average volume; OR a sell-side PT cut/downgrade reversing the $575–685 cluster; OR DRAM/NAND contract pricing rolling over QoQ; OR Micron/SanDisk guiding memory ASPs lower. --- ### WTTR — Select Water Solutions, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WTTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: produced-water-midstream, oilfield-water-infrastructure, lithium-direct-extraction, oil-energy-geopolitical Thesis: Produced-water midstream re-rate with a now-real lithium leg: Q1'26 record Water Infrastructure revenue ($96.7M) plus a raised FY26 infra-growth guide (25-30% YoY) reframe a cyclical OFS name as contracted infrastructure, while LibertyStream's first lithium-carbonate tonne (June-2026 delivery) and the late-May $22 Buy initiations confirm sell-side is only now underwriting it above a ~$15 aggregator consensus. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the reclaimed 200-DMA (~$17.50); OR WTI sustained <$60 (vs ~$92 now) gutting completions/water-volume demand; OR Aug-4 Q2 Adjusted EBITDA below the ~$77.6M Q1 baseline or the FY26 infra-growth guide cut under 25% YoY. --- ### YETI — YETI Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/YETI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands, tariff-reshoring-margin-recovery, premium-consumer-discretionary Thesis: Tariff-headwind margin-recovery turnaround pressing a multi-year range high near $51: 2026 China COGS guided <5%, ~$300M FY buyback shrinking the float, Drinkware back to growth and wholesale the best in three years (Q1 reported 2026-05-14). Constructive above all MAs but bumping the $48–51 analyst PT cluster with the next print ~2 months out wants a clean break over $51.29 or a higher-low to the 20-EMA before a fresh leg. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA / ~$45 breakout shelf; or the Q2 print (~early Aug) shows no H2 gross-margin expansion and the FY adjusted-EPS guide is cut below $2.83. --- ### YSS — York Space Systems Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/YSS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Space-defense vertical-integration roll-up moving from announcement to execution: Tranche 1 Transport Layer satellites shipping (2026-06-05), ALL.SPACE satcom order flow building (2026-06-09), both May acquisitions tracking to a ~2026-06-30 close. But the broad space-satellite theme is maturing/saturating after a large run, and the unrefuted Wolfpack short (2026-05-11) is the overhang. Invalidation trigger: A weekly close back below the $31–$33 analyst PT cluster (the pre-M&A base); OR either the ALL.SPACE or Solestial deal terminated or repriced at the ~2026-06-30 close; OR the FY26 sales guide cut below the $545M floor at the ~August print. --- ### ZVRA — Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ZVRA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, rare-disease-commercial, biotech-catalyst Thesis: MIPLYFFA's generic-cliff risk was just removed to 2041 (Orange Book patent + PTE filing, 2026-06-08), triggering a six-firm PT-raise cluster ($25–35) while the drug's ramp runs +78% YoY. A re-rating of a debt-free, cash-generative rare-disease name but the catalyst is a done event, not a fresh momentum leg. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the pre-patent breakout shelf (~$11), or Q2 MIPLYFFA net revenue below Q1's $24.6M either marks the re-rating fading and the commercial ramp stalling. --- ### AA — Alcoa Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: specialty-materials-rare-earths Thesis: Aluminum-deficit MATURING→rolling over: -7.9% distribution off highs, no fresh upgrade 15d, Hormuz de-escalation = binary-in-reverse at beta ~2. WATCH for a higher-low base; late-stage. --- ### AAPL — Apple Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AAPL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms Next catalyst: 2026-06-08 Thesis: WWDC ~6/8 binary today; MATURING ai-mag7 theme, $4T mega-cap (±5-10% asymmetry) dilutes alpha on the book, edge +3.3pp fails rule 2. Consistent with prior deferrals wait for the print. Invalidation trigger: revisit post-WWDC on a dated Siri 2.0 ship + a daily close >290 on >2x ADV that holds the breakout shelf --- ### ABCL — AbCellera Biologics Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ABCL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, menopause-vms-therapeutics, antibody-discovery-platform Thesis: Busted-platform turnaround re-rated ~190% off the $2.33 low on ABCL635 Phase 1 success + Q1 beat (+98% YoY) + PT hikes (Cantor $11). The Q3 2026 ABCL635 Phase 2 VMS topline is the binary but it's a quarter out, and the tape just spiked to the 52-wk high then reversed −12% (2026-06-05). MATURING/digesting, not a fresh chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$4.80 (50-day MA / breakout base) breaks the re-rating uptrend; hard thesis-kill if Q3 2026 ABCL635 Phase 2 topline shows no significant VMS reduction vs placebo or any hepatotox/safety signal. --- ### ACB — Aurora Cannabis Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ACB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cannabis-reclassification, cannabis-rescheduling-schedule-iii, medical-cannabis-international Next catalyst: 2026-06-11 Thesis: Sentiment-beta proxy on the U.S. reschedule trade, but the wrong horse: a Canadian LP with no U.S. THC ops, lagging at its 52-wk low ($3.46) while MSOS rips +7.6% (Jun 4) into the Jun 29 DEA hearing. Jun 11 pre-open earnings is the nearer binary. Probe-only lottery ticket, not a momentum setup. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 52-week low $3.07 (broken structure); OR Jun 11 Q4 print misses FY26 medical guide $269–281M / adj-EBITDA $52–57M; OR Jun 29 DEA hearing stays medical-only with no recreational read-through; OR dilutive equity raise announced into a pop. --- ### ACDC — ProFrac Holding Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ACDC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: oil-energy-geopolitical, oilfield-services-frac, oil-supply-shock Next catalyst: 2026-06-15 Thesis: Hormuz oil-shock beta is now UNWINDING, not accelerating: ACDC −10.1% on 2026-06-05 as the US President called Iran talks "progressing well," Iran signaled a Strait reopening, and Brent broke <$90 (WTI $91.40). The de-escalation headline that defined the downside trigger has fired; fresh long here is a falling-knife on a loss-making frac business (Q1 net loss $83.5M, ~$1.05B net debt). Invalidation trigger: WTI weekly close below $85 or ACDC weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (~$6.00–6.30) confirms full unwind of the Hormuz premium; --- ### ACMR — ACM Research, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ACMR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Thesis: WFE/China-localization ACCEL, orders +65%, but parabolic +280% 12mo cracked -9.4% on the 6/5 semicap selloff with Entity-List overhang WATCH for a $76-82 higher-low. --- ### ADTN — ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ADTN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical, bead-fiber Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Post-ADVA turnaround CONFIRMED on the 2026-05-04 Q1 beat non-GAAP GM 43.0%, revenue +15.5% YoY, optical +24% on hyperscaler DCI demand, non-GAAP EPS $0.14. The inflection fat-pitch already ran ~$7→$20; now MATURING and consolidating inside the $18–20 analyst PT cluster with the next catalyst (Q2, ~early Aug) outside the window. Fresh entry here is a probe-on-pullback, not a chase into targets. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$14.50–15 post-print breakout shelf (loses the rising 20-week EMA); OR Q2 (~early Aug) revenue <$283M, non-GAAP op margin <5%, or non-GAAP GM back under ~41%; OR optical/hyperscaler backlog commentary turns down or a CALX BEAD pre-announcement miss. --- ### AEIS — Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AEIS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai Thesis: Picks-and-shovels AI-datacenter power re-rating: DC Computing revenue doubled to $194.2M in Q1 (5/4) and the 6/3 ADH 800V converter launch slots AEIS into NVIDIA Rubin-era HVDC racks. Fundamentals ACCELERATING, but the tape broke down the 6/2 $298.85 low gave way on a -8.1% 6/5 session to ~$290, now pinned on the 200-day MA (~$286), no catalyst until ~early-Aug, fresh convert-arb overhang. Strong story, broken structure. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 200-day MA (~$286) = uptrend broken, value trap; OR Q2 (~early-Aug) DC Computing revenue printing a sequential decline vs Q1's $194.2M record / a cut to the FY26 mid-30s% DC-growth guide. --- ### AFRM — Affirm Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AFRM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: bnpl-consumer-credit, fintech-consumer-lending, consumer-discretionary-stress Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: Q3 FY26 print (2026-05-07) falsified the credit-stress bear case: GMV +35% to $11.6B, first-ever GAAP operating profit, 30+ delinquency stable ~2.5-3.0% below peers. But Klarna's Walmart win (~5% of GMV) caps the re-rate. Shares ~$66 are stuck below the 200-day ($71.46) a recovery leg, not yet a clean accelerating breakout. Wait for the 200-day reclaim. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $55 (post-print May gap shelf) breaks the recovery leg. Fundamentally: Q4 FY26 GMV guided below $12.75B, 30+ day delinquency printing above 3%, or a second top-merchant defection = thesis broken. --- ### AKAM — Akamai Technologies, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AKAM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software, legacy-tech-ai-revival, ai-infrastructure-compute Thesis: Legacy CDN→security/AI-compute re-rating (+137% off the $69.78 low) is MATURING and rolling: AKAM fell -6.08% to $149.32 on 2026-06-05 on a buy.77), with Delivery -16% YoY and a $2.6B convert overhang. Real narrative, spent leg watch, don't chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$140 (under the 20-day $150.77 and the May breakout shelf), or Q2 Delivery decline steeper than -16% YoY. Bull setup only re-arms on a daily close reclaiming/breaking the $165.45 52-week high on volume. --- ### ALAB — Astera Labs, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ALAB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Thesis: AI-connectivity ACCEL but mid-correction knife after -11.4% Broadcom de-rate, beta 3.96, ~25% above avg PT; correlated dup of MRVL/TSM. --- ### AMBA — Ambarella, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMBA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: edge-ai-inference, physical-ai-robotics, ai-chip-infra-memory, automotive-ai Thesis: Post-Hanwha re-rating failed: the 2026-06-05 weekly close ~$63.52 (−11.84%) broke the $68 base and gave back the entire $800M-deal pop. Edge-AI theme still accelerating sector-wide, but AMBA is being rejected on valuation modest +16.9% grower, GAAP-unprofitable, no catalyst until ~late-Aug Q2. Broken structure = value trap until it re-bases above $72. Invalidation trigger: Already fired 2026-06-05 weekly close $63.52 broke the $68 base. No-touch until a weekly close reclaims $72 off a higher low. Weekly close below the $48.30 52-week low = full breakdown. Fundamentally void on Q2 FY27 (~late Aug) revenue under the $105M guide floor or any Hanwha delay/walk-back. --- ### AMBQ — Ambiq Micro, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMBQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: small-cap-ai-momentum Thesis: Edge-AI silicon small-cap. Q1 blowout + Q2 guide-raise (2026-05-12) drove a parabolic to $85.77 ATH (May 26); June 5 -12.4% distribution day is the first crack. Catalyst already fired, now trades above analyst PTs ($70), no catalyst until ~Aug Q2. Wait for a re-setup, don't chase the unwind. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $70 (analyst PT cluster + post-earnings breakout shelf) confirms parabolic rollover into distribution; or a Q2 print/guide below the $31M sales floor. --- ### AMC — Amc Entertainment Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-reopening-speculative, meme-retail-squeeze Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: AMC near ~$1.92 (2026-06-04) is a faded squeeze vehicle: the strongest-May-attendance-since-2019 pop (2026-06-01) round-tripped in 48h, the Q1 binary is already past, and there's no GME co-move or retail-velocity spike. Dilution and ~$4B net debt cap rallies. Default pass unless a coordinated squeeze confirms. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the June pivot low (~$1.80) on expanding volume, OR an 8-K announcing a new ATM/secondary raise → dilution-grind thesis confirmed, name dead, remove from watchlist 60d. --- ### AMKR — Amkor Technology, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMKR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, advanced-packaging-osat, us-reshoring-chips Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: AI-advanced-packaging re-rate already played out (low-$40s → $79.23 ATH on 2026-04-27); the leg is now correcting, not accelerating. The Q1 beat (+27% rev, EPS +50% vs est) was sold -8.6%, and a -12% breakdown on 2026-06-05 inside a Broadcom-led AI-capex/rate repricing leaves AMKR ~19% off its high at the ~$64.50 consensus PT with mostly Neutral ratings. Mid-teens OSAT margin caps re-rating. Invalidation trigger: No fresh long is justified until price reclaims and weekly-closes above the broken ~$74–75 shelf on ≥2x volume. A weekly close below the 2026-06-06 reaction low (~$63) reopens the gap toward the 50-week MA. Q2 gross margin stuck ≤15% confirms the no-operating-leverage thesis. --- ### AMN — AMN Healthcare Services URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: health-managed-care Thesis: Healthcare-staffing cyclical recovery, breaking out: AMN +101% YTD to 52-wk highs ~$32 as temp-nurse demand inflects (Jefferies +3.6% w/w; CCRN travel/allied +7% q/q) and EBITDA recovers. But price sits ~25% above the $25 avg analyst PT on a Hold consensus, and the Q2 revenue guide came in light the move is real but the fresh entry is extended; the clean trade was $16–20 in Q1. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below ~$26 (May breakout shelf) negates the recovery breakout = failed-bottom reset. Or Jefferies weekly temp-nurse demand turning negative 3+ straight weeks. Upside confirm only on a volume-backed weekly close above $32 (UBS PT / 52-wk high). --- ### AMZN — Amazon.com, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMZN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms Thesis: AWS reaccel (+28% YoY Q1, 15-qtr high) + Trainium royalty + Anthropic-IPO stake-markup wildcard is fundamentally ACCELERATING, but theme discovery decayed it to a single MATURING tag (2026-06-05) and the tape still won't confirm six weeks of 50-day chop now meeting souring AI-bubble sentiment. No momentum trigger; next binary is Q2 ~2026-07-30. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 200-day MA (~$229), OR Q2 print (~2026-07-30) shows AWS net-sales growth decelerating below +25% YoY either ends the reacceleration leg and turns this into a value-trap mega-cap. --- ### ANAB — AnaptysBio, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ANAB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: pharma-royalty-monetization, litigation-special-situation, jemperli-dostarlimab-royalty Next catalyst: 2026-07-14 Thesis: April 2026 spin-off turned ANAB into a pure-play royalty company (Jemperli/GSK + imsidolimab/Vanda) after shedding its entire clinical pipeline and $100M cash to First Tracks (TRAX). Value now hinges on one binary: the July 14–17 Delaware trial over Jemperli reversion and royalty-rate preservation. The April court win de-risked it, but $50 spot sits at the floor of the $50–140 analyst PT range. Binary catalyst, not an accelerating momentum narrative. Invalidation trigger: Adverse July 14–17 Delaware ruling (no Jemperli reversion / Tesaro royalty-cut path reopened), or a daily close below ~$40 — that fills the April court-ruling gap and breaks the post-spin-off base. --- ### AOSL — Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AOSL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-power-semi, ai-data-center-silicon, ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: April discovery thesis fully played out: Needham Buy ($50), Q3 beat, company-confirmed AI data-center content, and a $150M JV cash unlock drove a ~3x to a $54.34 high. June 5 printed a -16% distribution day with the stock above the $30.50 consensus PT. Narrative confirmed but now priced late-cycle, not a fresh entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$30 May breakout shelf, OR FY26-Q4 print (~early Aug) shows advanced-computing/AI revenue decelerating or a Q1 guide implying AI content rolled over, OR a daily close losing the rising 50-day MA on elevated volume. --- ### APGE — Apogee Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/APGE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, il13-dupixent-succession Next catalyst: 2026-05-15 Thesis: Defining binary resolved 2026-05-27: APG777/zumilokibart Part B hit (mid-dose 65.9% EASI-75, all doses p<0.001) and a record $1.3B Blackstone non-dilutive deal landed yet shares sold the news (~$95→$83) on a non-monotonic dose curve (mid > high). Accelerating leg is spent; post-binary digestion with no 30-day catalyst. Watch a re-accumulation base above ~$75, not a chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the post-readout shelf (~$75, early-June consolidation low) on elevated volume; OR Phase 3 mid-dose maintenance fails to hold response at Q3M/Q6M dosing; OR XBI weekly close below its 20-week EMA (biotech-beta veto). --- ### ARCB — ArcBest Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ARCB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: freight-trucking-logistics Thesis: Freight/LTL-recovery momentum nearly tripled ARCB off its $59 low to a fresh all-time-high $173 (June 12), but the name now trades ~14% above the $149 average analyst PT and just absorbed Amazon's June 10 LTL market entry (-4%). Late-cycle and stretched a chase at the highs, not a clean fresh entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$150 (analyst-PT cluster / pre-thrust shelf), or a daily close losing the rising 20-EMA; fundamentally, Q2 monthly LTL tonnage printing negative YoY breaks the freight-recovery leg. --- ### ASST — Strive, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: bitcoin-treasury, crypto-treasury, crypto-financials-exchange Next catalyst: 2026-06-16 Thesis: Reverse merger closed; ASST is now Strive, a 19,000-BTC treasury proxy. The tradeable leg TD Cowen/HCW/Benchmark initiation wave plus deal front-run has fully played out. Now a ~1.3x-mNAV BTC vehicle with a fresh $2.55B ATM dilution shelf (424B5, 06-05) as sector bellwether Strategy turns net BTC seller. Theme MATURING→SATURATED; no accelerating leg to buy at current price. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$13 (post-split base) on expanding volume; or mNAV compresses below 1.0x (ATM turns NAV-dilutive); or BTC weekly close below its 20-week MA (treasury-basket unwind). --- ### ASX — ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, advanced-packaging-osat, ai-capex-beta Next catalyst: 2026-06-08 Thesis: Advanced-packaging/OSAT bottleneck thesis is still accelerating fundamentally (AP rev guided >$3.5B 2026), but the tape just blew off: fresh 52-wk high $41.10 met a ~11% single-session reversal to ~$34, RSI unwound to ~48, and insiders sold $349M/3mo with zero buys after the "Nvidia Halo Trade" went mainstream. Parabola cracking watch the 50-day, don't chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 50-day MA (~$30.80) confirms the blowoff-top reversal and kills the long setup; secondary: May/June monthly revenue decelerating MoM or Q2 call cutting the >$3.5B advanced-packaging guide. --- ### ATAI — AtaiBeckley Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATAI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: psychedelic-mental-health, biotech-binary-catalyst Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Consolidated-psychedelic-leader narrative already fired AtaiBeckley merger, 22.4% Compass stake, both COMP360 Phase 3 wins, BPL-003 EOP2 cleared. On 2026-06-05 the tape lost the $4.00 shelf (−12% to $3.95) in a risk-off session, opening an air pocket toward the $2.00 low. Next hard data (COMP006 Part B durability) is early Q3 broken structure, not a momentum entry. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $3.80 confirms loss of the $4.00 shelf and opens the air pocket toward the $2.00 52-wk low. A re-entry probe needs a reclaim of $4.00 plus a higher-low base into early-Q3 COMP006 Part B; an ATM raise priced sub-$4 caps any bounce. --- ### ATEX — Anterix Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATEX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: grid-power-transmission Next catalyst: 2026-06-10 Thesis: Spectrum re-rating already paid: FCC's 2026-02-18 final rule lifting 900 MHz broadband to 10 MHz (implied $2.5–7B+ value) drove a ~3.7x run to the 52-wk high $67.19. Theme now MATURING B. Riley cut to Neutral 2026-06-04 (PT $69 ≈ spot), and Q4 FY26 results after close 2026-06-10 are a binary into a tape pinned at the high. Not a fresh accelerating leg. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the post-FCC base (~$54); or Q4 FY2026 (after close 2026-06-10) collects <$80M of the $123M contracted proceeds, or guides FY2027 signings lower. --- ### ATEYY — Advantest Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATEYY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: running-renaissance, premium-athleisure, weak-yen-export, japan-consumer-export, legacy-brand-pivot, onitsuka-lifestyle-revival Next catalyst: 2026-06-16 Thesis: Record 2026-05-13 Q1 (sales +29.7%, op profit +36.5%) but FY2026 guide held FLAT, not raised a third straight time the beat-and-raise engine stalled. Shares topped ¥5,149 that day, down ~12% to ¥4,502 since. Hoka guiding HSD next quarter; BoJ June-16 hike risk into a 160 yen. MATURING→SATURATED, no accelerating leg to buy. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ¥4,200 (post-print breakdown; opens 200-DMA ~¥3,900); OR BoJ 2026-06-16 hike pushes USDJPY <150 (~5% FY op-profit headwind); OR Aug H1 print shows Onitsuka Tiger decel for a 2nd straight quarter or NA revenue <+20% YoY. --- ### ATI — ATI Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: specialty-materials-rare-earths Thesis: Aerospace-materials, but at consensus PT with RR inverted, theme now MATURING, no binary until ~7/30 late-stage chase, want a 20-EMA reset. --- ### ATKR — Atkore Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ATKR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: grid-power-transmission Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Cyclical electrical-products inflection (first net-sales growth since FY2022, Q2 reported 5/5) ran to a fresh 52w high $90.16 — then FAILED back to $80.61 (-5.1% on 6/5) as the May jobs report pushed the 30Y >5% and gutted the rate tailwind for the whole grid-infra theme. Cheap at 13.8x fwd but sell-side still Hold; a failed breakout into a rate shock is watch-not-chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$76 May breakout shelf confirms the inflection failed; or a Q3 FY26 (early-Aug) sequential net-sales decline / FY26 adj-EPS guide cut below $5.05 breaks the cyclical-recovery thesis. --- ### AUGO — Aura Minerals Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AUGO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: gold-miners, gold-bull-macro, precious-metals-growth-capex, commodity-materials Next catalyst: 2026-05-13 Thesis: Gold-miner momentum has rolled over hard: AUGO is ~45% off its $110 high to ~$60 down 9.7% on 2026-06-06 alone as gold corrects from its $5,589 Jan peak to 2026 lows (~$4,420). Q1 (2026-05-06) printed record EBITDA ($244M) but AISC blew out to $1,829/GEO with CAPEX rising for the Era Dorada build. Cheap 6.6x forward P/E over a broken structure is a value trap. Falling knife no momentum entry. Invalidation trigger: Avoid until structure repairs: needs a weekly close back above the ~$72 20-EMA on rising volume after a higher low, ideally with gold reclaiming $4,600. A weekly close below ~$55 (into the rising 200-day) confirms the downtrend and pushes the gold-miner theme toward DEAD. --- ### AUR — Aurora Innovation, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AUR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: autonomous-vehicles-robotics, autonomous-trucking-freight, physical-ai-embodied-autonomy Thesis: Driverless-freight commercialization is real (McLane/Berkshire live in TX May 6, Volvo Dallas–OKC route, 7 customers, 200-truck year-end target) but the early-May momentum leg has rolled over ~26% from the $8.50 May-14 high to ~$6.3 falling INTO fresh bull notes (Craig-Hallum $18 Jun 5, MS $14, Northland $11) and a Reid Hoffman insider trim. Price says distribution; no clean momentum setup here yet. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $6.19 (Jun 6 low) opens the ~$5.00 pre-McLane base; failure to reclaim the declining 20-EMA near $7.20 keeps the leg broken. Fundamental kill: year-end driverless fleet tracking under ~150 vs the 200-truck target. --- ### AVNS — Avanos Medical, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AVNS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: merger-arbitrage, going-private, specialty-healthcare-take-private, medtech Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: All-cash $25.00/share take-private by American Industrial Partners (announced 2026-04-14, EV $1.272B, no financing condition) converted AVNS into a merger-arb pin. Narrative is dead; tape sits a few percent under the cash floor until a 2H-2026 close. Nothing for a momentum book to trade only a deal-break or topping bid revives it. Invalidation trigger: Price gaps >10% below the $25.00 cash consideration (deal-break / HSR block / MAE scare) OR a competing bid above $25.00 prints either flips this from dead-arb to an event trade worth modeling. Absent that, no trade. --- ### AVR — Anteris Technologies Global Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AVR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: TAVR disruptor at fresh 52w-high but on momentum not news, into a live $250M ATM seller, real binary ~2028 idiosyncratic, MATURING. --- ### AZTA — Azenta, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AZTA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: Cash-rich life-sciences-tools laggard (~$10.90/share net cash, no debt) bouncing off its $15.93 low after a May 6 impairment-and-guidance-cut gap-down. The leg here is activist/value-unlock (Politan ~10%, investor day pending), not an accelerating narrative organic revenue still −3% YoY. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$20 (post-earnings gap fill fails, structure rolls back toward the $15.93 low); or Q3 FY2026 (~early Aug) organic revenue prints negative again, confirming demand isn't inflecting. --- ### AZZ — AZZ Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AZZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: grid-power-transmission Thesis: Galvanizing/coatings picks-and-shovels name that rode the grid-power buildout to a $151.67 ATH (2026-05-11), now ~9% off and digesting. Its "substation" leg is being divested (AVAIL switchgear → nVent, $975M), the Q4 binary already printed, and the next catalyst (Q1 FY27) isn't until 2026-07-08. MATURING and full at ~20x forward the edge is a pullback to ~$130–135 support, not a chase. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$130 (May breakout shelf / rising 50-day) on above-average volume breaks the structure; or the Q1 FY27 print (2026-07-08) cuts FY27 guide ($1.725–1.775B sales / $6.50–7.00 adj EPS). Reclaim of $148+ toward the $151.67 ATH re-arms the long. --- ### BAK — Braskem S.A. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BAK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: commodity-petrochemicals-cyclical, distressed-credit-restructuring, em-brazil-cyclical, ownership-control-change Next catalyst: 2026-06-08 Thesis: Multi-year Novonor controlling-stake sale CLOSED June 2026 (Shine I FIP/IG4 + Petrobras co-control); the defining binary resolved as a sell-the-news ADR hit fresh lows ($3.48, -7.45% on 2026-06-05). JPM went Overweight (PT $5.50) on a spread-bottom turnaround, but net leverage is 16.81x and Braskem Idesa is sliding into Chapter 11. No momentum leg; stay flat. Invalidation trigger: Stance is flat/pass no long to invalidate. Bear/value-trap confirmed on: weekly ADR close below $3.00, OR Braskem Idesa Chapter 11 filing on terms subordinating parent equity, OR petrochem spread re-compression reversing the Q1 +76% QoQ EBITDA rebound. --- ### BAND — Bandwidth Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BAND/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: small-cap-ai-momentum Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Post-Q1 beat (~early May) drove a violent re-rate sell-side PTs jumped from a lone B. Riley $27 to Needham $60 (5/14) and Citizens $70 (5/15) and the stock went parabolic into late May (RSI low-80s). Now at peak retail attention (Benzinga Stock Whisper; tagged a "small-cap that blew past Micron") with no fresh catalyst inside 30 days. Late-stage chase, not a fresh entry; wait for a higher-low reset or the ~August Q2 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the May breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA, or failure to reclaim the late-May parabolic high confirms the post-print momentum leg has rolled into mean-reversion. --- ### BB — BlackBerry Limited URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software, ai-robotics-software, legacy-pivot-ai Next catalyst: 2026-06-23 Thesis: Cyber re-rating (AtHoc FedRAMP recert, QNX momentum, buyback) drove a +50-65% two-week rip to a 52-week high $10.93 on WSB-fueled flow but a -9% June 5 reversal off the high, sell-side PTs ($4.40-8.50) all below spot, and a binary ~June 23 Q1 print make a fresh entry a chase into peak retail sentiment, not a clean accelerating setup. Invalidation trigger: Two consecutive daily closes below the rising 20-EMA (~$7.80), or a gap-fill back toward the $6.20 May breakout shelf, breaks the leg. Q1 print (~2026-06-23) with QNX revenue below the $60–64M guide flips numbers-vs-narrative bearish. --- ### BBNX — Beta Bionics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BBNX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-06-08 Thesis: Broken growth (new patient starts -10-20% seq) bouncing into ADA on RSI 82.3 parabolic off a busted base; litigation circling event-relief, not a trend. --- ### BBY — Best Buy Company, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BBY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands, ai-glasses-wearables, consumer-discretionary-recovery Next catalyst: 2026-06-18 Thesis: Big-box retailer back to positive comps (+2.0% Q1 FY27, 2026-05-28) and repositioning as the physical storefront for the AI-glasses/VR cycle via the Meta Lab rollout (50+ stores, June). But the easy +24% recovery off the April ~$60.50 low already fired; at ~$75 with no catalyst until the ~Sep 1 print, it's a slow-burn legacy pivot, not an accelerating momentum leg. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$68 (loses the post-earnings breakout shelf and rising 20-EMA), or Q2 FY27 comps (~2026-09-01) printing negative against the ~+1% guide, or a FY27 comp-guide cut below (1.0%)–(+1.0%). --- ### BIDU — Baidu, Inc. ADS URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BIDU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: autonomous-driving-ev Thesis: China-AI re-rate has stalled: BABA/Tencent/PDD plunged 2026-05-31 while US AI ripped. Q1 (2026-05-18) showed AI >50% of revenue and Cloud +33% but the stock went flat. Price pins the 200-day (~$123) under a falling 50-day ($139). MATURING→SATURATED, no catalyst for 30d value-trap quadrant, not an accelerating leg. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 200-day MA (~$123) into the $110 base confirms the China-AI re-rate has rolled to SATURATED while US AI leads dead money until it reclaims the 50-day (~$139) with BABA/Tencent confirming. --- ### BLDP — Ballard Power Systems, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BLDP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: hydrogen-fuel-cell, clean-energy-revival, legacy-pivot-turnaround Thesis: Left-for-dead hydrogen fuel-cell name re-rated ~+80% off $3.39 (2026-05-01) on a real Q1 turn 3rd straight quarter of positive gross margin (14%), 36% opex cut. But it has churned at ~$6.06 for two weeks above every analyst PT, with a Weichai ~6.9M-share block sale and a ~US$250M ATM overhead and no dated catalyst until the 2026-08-12 Q2 print. The accelerating leg already fired. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (~$5.10) or a daily close under the $4.80 May breakout shelf. Fundamentally: a 2nd straight QoQ backlog decline on the 2026-08-12 Q2 print (already -5% QoQ to $112.9M), an opportunistic ATM raise into strength, or sustained Weichai block-selling capping the tape. --- ### BLZE — Backblaze, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BLZE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds, ai-storage-infra Thesis: Neocloud storage-layer pick-and-shovel: B2 Neo white-labels object storage to GPU clouds; AI customers +76% YoY and >1/3 of Q1 bookings, FY26 guide raised to $161.5–163.5M. But the post-print run to the $10.86 high has cooled to $7.76 (2026-06-05) with no catalyst until the ~Aug 6 Q2 print accelerating story, consolidating tape. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $7.00 forfeits the rising 20-day (~$7.71) and the post-print base; or Q2 print (~2026-08-06) with B2 Cloud Storage growth <20% YoY or an FY26 revenue-guide cut below $161.5M. --- ### BMA — Banco Macro S.A. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BMA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: argentina-financials, argentina-turnaround, em-disinflation Thesis: Argentina disinflation/credit-recovery trade; BMA is the best-capitalized domestic vehicle. But the explosive Milei-midterm leg (Oct 2025, ~3x off the low) is mature, Q1 ROE is a thin ~10%, and price sits mid-range near $91 off the $106 high with no fresh 30-day catalyst. Structural upside intact; the easy repricing is largely behind it. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$78 (post-election consolidation base / rising 200-DMA), OR two consecutive monthly INDEC CPI prints re-accelerating (disinflation thesis breaks), OR NPLs rising materially above 5.40% with coverage slipping under ~100%. --- ### BRKR — Bruker Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BRKR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: Post-ASMS product-cycle pop peaked ~$63 and rolling over (-6%), organic -4.4%, trades above raised consensus wait-for-a-higher-low fade. --- ### BROS — Dutch Bros Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BROS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: restaurants-dining Thesis: Drive-thru coffee unit-growth story re-accelerating on mobile order-ahead + a hot-food daypart Q1 systemwide comps +8.3% and FY26 guidance raised (2026-05-06). But the tape is parabolic into RSI ~83 and founder Boersma sold ~$92.5M into the rip; late-stage, extended entry. Better risk/reward on a pullback to the ~$58 breakout shelf than chasing the vertical leg. Invalidation trigger: Daily/weekly close below the early-June breakout shelf (~$58) / loss of the rising 20-EMA in the low-$60s; or Q2 systemwide same-shop sales below the +4% guide floor (~early-Aug print). --- ### BTBT — Bit Digital, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BTBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: gpu-cloud-neoclouds, eth-treasury-holdco, ai-datacenter-infra Thesis: Busted ETH/WhiteFiber holdco, not a momentum setup. Both prior break levels gave way on 6/5: BTBT closed $1.64 (-11.4%) and the 27M-share WYFI stake fell with WYFI's -15% to $23.27, while ETH cratered to ~$1,566. The ~36% SOTP discount persists but every leg is a falling knife avoid. Invalidation trigger: Avoid stands until BTBT closes back above ~$2.10 (reclaims the broken shelf) AND WYFI posts a weekly close above $28 with ETH stabilizing >$1,700. Absent that, the ~36% SOTP discount keeps widening as both legs fall downtrend continuation, no bid. --- ### BTE — Baytex Energy Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BTE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: energy-tankers-oil-geopolitical, oil-geopolitical-supply-shock, canadian-heavy-oil Next catalyst: 2026-06-15 Thesis: High-beta proxy on the 2026 oil supply-shock premium, and that premium is leaking: WTI ~$91 (2026-06-05, -3.1% session, -20% off peak) on US-Iran ceasefire/MOU optimism. BTE is +39% in a month, ~190% off lows, pinned near 52-wk highs as sell-side cools to Hold. Chasing C$6.90 is the late-cycle trap, not the early entry. Invalidation trigger: WTI sustained below $80/bbl, or Strait of Hormuz transit normalizing above ~60 vessels/day (supply premium gone) confirmed by a BTE weekly close below the rising 20-week EMA (~C$6.40 / US$4.65). --- ### BTGO — BitGo Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BTGO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: crypto-custody-infra, crypto-financials-exchange, broken-ipo-overhang Thesis: Broken-IPO falling knife: down ~69% from its $18 Jan-2026 IPO to ~$5.56, printing fresh all-time lows after slicing the prior $5.42 floor. Real crypto-custody franchise landing weekly enterprise deals, but EBITDA-negative, dead tape, and a 2026-07-21 lockup overhang. Only live wire is the undated, binary Galaxy $100M Chancery verdict. Avoid until a base forms; no setup at spot. Invalidation trigger: Bear thesis holds while price stays below the broken ~$5.42 IPO-low shelf; fresh lows in the $5.30s just confirm the downtrend. Flip avoid→probe ONLY on a weekly close back above ~$8.50 with a confirmed higher-low, ideally after the 2026-07-21 lockup clears without a supply flood. Do not buy weakness. --- ### BULL — Webull Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BULL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: retail-brokerage-fintech, pdt-rule-deregulation, prediction-markets-event-contracts Thesis: PDT $25K day-trade floor died 2026-06-04 and Webull (avg account ~$5K) is the most directly exposed broker CEO guided ≥20% volume lift. Yet BULL round-tripped its +9% pop within 24h (−8% on 2026-06-05) while HOOD held its gain. The laggard rejecting a generational tailwind. No long until a base holds and reclaims the 50-day (~$6) on volume. Invalidation trigger: No long while price trades below the 50-day (~$6.0) and 200-day (~$8.5). A daily close below the $4.50 ATL (2026-04-02) confirms the falling knife stay flat. Bull setup requires a base holding above $6 and a 50/200-day reclaim on expanding volume, plus relative strength vs HOOD. --- ### CADL — Candel Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CADL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, oncology-immunotherapy, viral-immunotherapy-oncology Thesis: Phase 3 prostate-cancer win is now fully public Lancet Oncology print (2026-06-02), AUA extended follow-up (HR 0.70, 39% PCa-specific DFS gain) and the tape barely moved. The April accelerating leg (Cantor OW, EVERSANA, $4→$9) has matured into churn near the $9.27 52-wk high with no binary until the Q4 2026 BLA filing. Data confirmed, momentum stalled. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$7.45 (≈$550M cap, trips Trinity LSA covenant → cash pledge on $50M loan), or BLA submission slips past Q4 2026. Absent a volume close above the $9.27 52-wk high, no accelerating leg exists to trade. --- ### CAKE — Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (The) URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CAKE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: restaurants-dining, casual-dining-rerate, multi-concept-restaurant-growth Thesis: Casual-dining re-rate, not an ignition: North Italia (+7%) and Flower Child (+21% sales) scaling ~20% units plus a margin-expansion story drove +42% YTD to all-time highs and a 2026-06-10 JPMorgan upgrade. But ~$75 now sits through the street-high target with no catalyst until the ~early-August Q2 print the narrative is maturing and extended, so fresh entries chase the spike. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the $66–67 pre-breakout shelf (early-June base) signals the all-time-high breakout failed; alternatively Q2 flagship comps turning negative or a margin-guidance cut breaks the expansion thesis. --- ### CAL — Caleres Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CAL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands Next catalyst: 2026-05-28 Thesis: Binary Q1 catalyst is spent. The 2026-06-04 print beat (adj EPS $0.38 vs $0.31, sales +8.5% to $667M) but the stock rose only +0.64% after a +14% run-in the beat was fully priced. Brand-Portfolio re-rate is real yet Famous Footwear still bleeds (comps -2.3%, guided down MSD for Q2); no accelerating momentum leg. Probe-only. The one live option is a $57.8M IEEPA tariff refund excluded from guidance. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below the ~$13 pre-print shelf, confirming the beat is fully sold and the brand re-rate stalled; OR Q2 Famous Footwear comps worse than the guided down-MSD; OR July 2026 tariff enactment materially harsher than the assumed IEEPA replacement. --- ### CBRL — Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CBRL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: restaurants-dining Thesis: Legacy-diner turnaround confirmed by the 2026-06-09 Q3 beat and raised FY26 guide ($3.27–3.30B vs $3.25B est); analyst upgrades clustering (WFC OW $50, Argus $60) into a 9-month-high tape. But the earnings binary already fired, price is parabolic (RSI high-80s), and macro turned risk-off (hot May CPI, Iran). Narrative intact, entry stretched wait for a base. Invalidation trigger: Daily close that fills the 2026-06-10 post-earnings gap (back inside the pre-print range), or any walk-back of the raised FY26 sales guide ($3.27–3.30B). --- ### CCRN — Cross Country Healthcare, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CCRN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: health-managed-care Next catalyst: 2026-06-22 Thesis: Pinned cash merger-arb, not a momentum trade. Knox Lane (PE, no staffing overlap) is taking CCRN private at $13.25 cash; stock $13.18 (Jun 5 close) = ~0.5% gross spread. HSR waiting period lapses 2026-06-22 absent a second request. Upside capped at $13.25, deal-break downside ~22% to standalone ~$10 R/R fails the >3:1 bar. Pass. Invalidation trigger: A merger-termination 8-K or an HSR second request gaps CCRN from ~$13.18 toward standalone ~$9–10; any daily close below $12.50 signals deal doubt. Inverse: a clean HSR lapse on 2026-06-22 then a $13.25 close and delist leaves zero further upside. --- ### CDW — CDW Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CDW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software, ai-infrastructure-capex, enterprise-it-reseller Thesis: Beaten-down IT reseller (−47% peak-to-trough to $97) bounced ~36% to $132 on a Q1 beat (net sales $5.68B vs $5.48B est, +9%) and an "AI-factory deployment" re-story. But it is a second-order AI derivative, narrative velocity is fading, and the rally has already cleared JPMorgan's $130 bull target. Recovery, not acceleration. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the late-May breakout shelf (~$120) / rising 20-EMA failed recovery; or a Q2 print (~early Aug) showing net-sales growth decelerating toward low-single-digits vs Q1's +9%. --- ### CERS — Cerus Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CERS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: blood-safety-pathogen-reduction, small-cap-profitability-inflection, biotech-precision-therapeutics, medtech-turnaround Next catalyst: 2026-07-01 Thesis: Blood-safety turnaround now analyst-confirmed: Q1'26 (4/30) hit adj-EBITDA +$4.0M and +$6.2M operating cash on +24% product rev, drawing a BTIG Buy/$4 PT plus France EFS and BCA supply deals. But the 2.7x off the $1.15 low is largely spent MATURING, near $3.15 highs, a +10-12% grower with no binary before the late-July Q2 print. Pullback name, not a chase at highs. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$2.40 20-week EMA = turnaround structure broken; OR FY26 product-rev guide cut below the $227M floor on the late-July Q2 print; OR adjusted EBITDA flips back negative; OR a negative RedeS Phase 3 RBC readout (H2'26). --- ### CEVA — CEVA, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CEVA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Thesis: Edge-AI IP ACCEL but a June-5 blowoff reversal -12% off the 52w high, consensus PT at spot + JPM Neutral $30 exhaustion bar, no fresh-entry edge. --- ### CGC — Canopy Growth Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CGC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cannabis-reclassification Next catalyst: 2026-06-15 Thesis: Cannabis Schedule III narrative is ACCELERATING federally (DEA adult-use rescheduling hearing 2026-06-29→07-15), but CGC is a diluted Canadian proxy at $1.04 near its 52-wk low, with a restatement-bundled 2026-06-15 print arriving first. LOW-conviction binary-event option on the wrong vehicle, not a momentum setup. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below 52-week low $0.84; OR 2026-06-15 print shows accelerating operating cash burn or going-concern language; OR DEA hearing (2026-06-29→07-15) leaves adult-use marijuana in Schedule I or is delayed past July. --- ### CIEN — Ciena Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CIEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Optical DCI / WaveLogic-7 1.6T cycle is real, but the binary already fired: Q2 06-04 beat-and-raise (EPS $1.64 vs $1.46; FY26 guide lifted to $6.2-6.4B) sold off from a $620.37 pre-print close expectations sat above even the raised guide. Narrative MATURING→SATURATED (first photonics ETF launched 05-13); no fresh-entry edge at current stretch. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 50-DMA on >1.5x avg volume; OR a hyperscaler (META/MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN) cuts 2026 CapEx guide >5%; OR Q3 FY26 (~Sep) revenue guide below the $1.575B-$1.675B floor set 2026-06-04. --- ### CLF — Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLF/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: grid-power-transmission Thesis: Grid-power MATURING, GOES story real but Q1 EPS miss, price above every PT, 13.9% short squeeze fuel WATCH a 20-EMA $12 hold. --- ### CLFD — Clearfield, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLFD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Thesis: Fiber-connectivity small-cap ripped ~39% on a Q2 revenue MISS (-15% YoY, swung to a loss) as retail bid the AI-fiber + BEAD story; backlog +39% QoQ and book-to-bill 1.3 are the only hard supports. The move already ran ~60% in a month and stalled at $44-45 the easy leg is gone, and BEAD revenue is a FY2027 event, not now. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $40 (loses the post-earnings consolidation shelf + rising 20-EMA); or book-to-bill back under 1.0; or FY2026 guidance cut below $160M net sales on the next print. --- ### CLOV — Clover Health Investments, Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLOV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: managed-care-health-insurance Thesis: Managed-care relief rally but CMS catalyst 2mo stale, meme at RSI 72 above all PTs, no fresh catalyst to Q2 (~Aug) chase at the highs (1% squeeze cap). --- ### CMBT — CMB.TECH NV URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CMBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: energy-tankers-oil-geopolitical, tanker-rate-supercycle, hydrogen-ammonia-maritime Thesis: Geopolitical VLCC super-spike is rolling over: spot ex-AG broke below $100k/day on 2026-06-02, first sub-$100k in 19 weeks, off a $420k+ peak. CMB.TECH's Q2 (~80% fixed at ~$180k/day) is near-locked, but the rate has turned, the Q1 catalyst is behind, and price sits ~17% off the May high. Late-cycle cyclical at peak earnings, not a fresh momentum entry. Invalidation trigger: AG-China VLCC TCE the lane still holding fixings ~3x above the $46.5k/day 10-yr avg normalizes toward trend; confirmed by a weekly close below the 20-EMA (~$14.50) or a US-Iran/Hormuz de-escalation headline that collapses the war-risk premium. --- ### CMG — Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CMG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: restaurants-dining Thesis: Multi-year Chipotle compounding story is broken: fresh 52-week low 2026-06-03 + Morgan Stanley downgrade to Equal-Weight/$37 on margin and consumer-spend headwinds. JP Morgan's 2026-06-05 upgrade to Overweight (PT cut to $35) is the first counter-signal, but it's one call into a risk-off tape with no price reclaim. Falling knife, no long. Invalidation trigger: Avoid flips only on a second sell-side upgrade within ~14d (cluster) PLUS a weekly close back above the 20-EMA (~$42 est.) off a higher low. Until then sustained closes below the $35 JPM target confirm the downtrend and every bounce is a sell. --- ### CMPS — COMPASS Pathways Plc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CMPS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, psychedelic-mental-health Thesis: Late-April FDA catalyst (NDA rolling review + National Priority Voucher for COMP360 in TRD) has faded into dead tape; theme stepped ACCELERATING→MATURING and volume is back to ~1x ADV. No dated catalyst in 30d the real binary is the COMP006 Phase 3 topline (H2-2026, est.). Now a binary biotech in a quiet window, not a momentum vehicle. Stand aside until the theme re-accelerates on volume or a hard regulatory/clinical event lands. Invalidation trigger: Re-activate only on theme re-acceleration (news z>2.0) with a 20-EMA reclaim on >1.5x ADV, OR a dated hard catalyst (assigned PDUFA date, FDA NDA acceptance, positive COMP006 topline) with options-flow confirmation. A COMP006 miss, FDA refuse-to-file/clinical hold, or dilutive raise = structurally broken. --- ### CNC — Centene Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CNC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: health-managed-care, managed-care-margin-recovery, aca-marketplace Thesis: Managed-care margin recovery off the 2025 ACA blowup: +137% to ~$59, now above the ~$55 consensus PT as sell-side upgrades (DB $80, BofA $74) arrive late confirmation, not a fresh leg. Q1 crushed ($3.37 vs $2.13) yet FY guide only >$3.40 implies a thin H2. Recovery largely priced; MATURING toward SATURATED, needs Wakely/Q2 to re-accelerate. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$52 (May breakout shelf / rising 20-week EMA) breaks the recovery structure. Separately, Q2 (~2026-07-28) Medicaid HBR re-expanding above ~93.5% or any FY guide cut breaks the cost-control thesis. --- ### CNTA — Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CNTA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: pharma-ma-takeout, merger-arbitrage, orexin-agonist-franchise Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: Closed deal, not a trade: Eli Lilly's definitive ~$6.3B-cash + up to $1.5B-CVR acquisition (announced 2026-03-31, ~40% premium) capped the orexin story at the bid. Stock pinned near the ~$40 cash value, PTs clustered $40–42, post-M&A downgrade cluster no momentum leg above the bid. Merger-arb dead money pending close; DEAD for narrative-momentum. Invalidation trigger: Merger-agreement termination 8-K or FTC second request gaps the stock toward the pre-bid ~$28–30 base (~30% downside). No momentum leg exists above Lilly's ~$40 cash bid; a topping-bid 8-K is the only re-rate path. DEAD for this playbook until deal status changes. --- ### COCO — The Vita Coco Company, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COCO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-discretionary-rebound, functional-beverage-secular-growth, coconut-water-category-leader Thesis: Coconut-water category leader re-rated +130% off lows on a real Q1 FY26 blowout (+37% sales, EPS beat, FY guide raised), but that catalyst already fired. Stock now consolidates ~7% below its $79.70 ATH with no binary for ~8 weeks until Q2 ~7/29. MATURING, not accelerating the edge is the 20-EMA pullback, not a chase at $74 near the high. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $60 fills the late-April Q1 earnings gap (full retrace of the re-rate). OR Q2 print ~2026-07-29 net sales <$185M = decelerating off Q1's $179.8M in the seasonally strongest quarter. --- ### CODI — Compass Diversified URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CODI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: post-fraud-recovery, holding-company-discount, special-situations-event-driven Thesis: Post-fraud recovery has already played out: 10-K/A restatement filed 2025-12-08, Lugano fraud ruled isolated, Sterno sold (~$280M), common tripled off a $4.58 low to a $12.64 high (+128% YTD). At ~$10.64 it trades above every analyst PT (high $10.50), the audit/restatement binary is spent, and no fresh catalyst exists inside 30d. Spent leg skip a fresh entry; re-engage only on a clean weekly close over $12.64. Invalidation trigger: Long only re-opens on a weekly close above the $12.64 52-week high on >2x avg volume (new leg). Absent that, a weekly close below ~$9.25 (consensus PT / breakout shelf) confirms the recovery is rolling over. No momentum entry at ~$10.64 either way. --- ### CPIX — Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CPIX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, ifetroban-pipeline, micro-cap-pharma-transformation, rare-disease-catalyst Next catalyst: 2026-06-24 Thesis: 3x re-rate off $1.85 to $5.77 is the $100M Apotex asset-sale (announced 2026-04-22; $75M cash upfront + $25M earnout) vs $87M cap public and priced. The 2026-06-24 shareholder vote is the only dated binary, but the board recommends FOR, so it de-risks rather than adds upside; ~62K sh/day liquidity disqualifies size. MATURING→SATURATED, post-catalyst. Invalidation trigger: Apotex deal terminated/repriced lower, OR the 2026-06-24 shareholder vote fails, OR a weekly close below ~$5.00 (post-deal breakout base / 20-EMA zone). Any one ends the re-rating leg. --- ### CRDO — Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRDO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-06-03 Thesis: Q4 FY26 (2026-06-01) was a blowout revenue +157% YoY, EPS $1.16 vs $1.03, Q1 guide $465–475M above consensus yet the stock sold the news, and the entire sell-side raised PTs to $215–$300 the next morning. That is a narrative shifting from ACCELERATING to MATURING: the binary print is past, coverage is fully discovered, and a fresh long here is chasing a post-earnings fade. Next leg needs a reclaim of the pre-print breakout shelf. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA that fails to reclaim the pre-earnings breakout shelf (~$164 April signal level); OR Q1 FY27 revenue guide ($465–475M) trimmed at any interim update; OR an AWS insourcing / large-customer-loss disclosure against the ~40% concentration. --- ### CRS — Carpenter Technology Corp URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: specialty-materials-rare-earths Next catalyst: 2026-07-01 Thesis: Aerospace/defense superalloy supercycle is real and compounding record Q3 FY26 (4/29), FY26 op-income guide +33%, A&D bookings at multi-year highs. But the leg is MATURING: +53.6% YTD to ~$483 (52-wk high $495.58), parabolic RSI ~85 early June now cooling to ~65, spot above the Street's high target ($466), insiders + Third Point trimming. Buy a pullback that holds the 50-day (~$432), not the all-time-high chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 50-day SMA (~$432) breaks the uptrend; or Q4 FY26 (late-July) operating income below the guided $205–210M range. --- ### CRVS — Corvus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRVS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: dupixent-disruptor, itk-inhibitor-oral-ad, biotech-binary-readout, rare-disease-approvals Next catalyst: 2026-05-12 Thesis: Single-asset ITK-inhibitor binary RESOLVED: soquelitinib's 2026-05-14 Phase 1 atopic-dermatitis data printed clean (up to 75% EASI-75, durable off-drug remission), yet shares SOLD the news ~-28% and now sit ~$11.12 vs a $26.95 52-wk high. Momentum leg is spent, dilution risk gone (funded to Q2 2028), and the next hard catalyst Phase 3 PTCL interim is ~late 2026. No accelerating narrative to buy; watch-only. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the ~$10 post-readout May low on >1.5x 20-day volume (post-event distribution continues, no base) or a Phase 3 PTCL interim miss when it lands (~late 2026). A daily reclaim of the 50-day near $13–14 on expanding volume is the first re-acceleration tell. --- ### CRWD — CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRWD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: Cyber ACCEL but beat-and-raise sold-the-news 6/5, analysts split $413-825, Jefferies cut cluster covered by held OKTA, watch for a higher-low reclaim. --- ### CSIQ — Canadian Solar Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CSIQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: solar-clean-energy, energy-storage, clean-energy-policy Next catalyst: 2026-07-04 Thesis: Solar-policy relief rally that ran CSIQ to a $34.59 high has rolled over: Q1 (2026-05-14) net loss, Q2 gross-margin guide collapse to 13–15% from 25.1%, a ~$200M convert dilution overhang, and a 2026-06-05 -11.9% break to $17.16 — that lost the 50-day MA. Broken-momentum / value-trap shape, not an accelerating leg. E-STORAGE backlog ($3.5B) is the only live bull. Watch, don't chase. Invalidation trigger: Avoid-read flips to actionable long only on a daily close back above the rolled-over 50-day MA (~$25) with Q2 gross-margin guide stabilizing >15%; a daily close below the 200-day (~$17.7) confirms breakdown toward the $9–10 base. --- ### DDD — 3D Systems Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DDD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: legacy-tech-ai-revival, 3d-printing-additive-mfg, small-cap-retail-squeeze Thesis: Resurrected 3D-printing retail narrative is being monetized by management, not traders: $100M shelf (May 22) → $50M raise at $3.05/16.4M shares (June 4), printed straight into the Q1-beat pop. Dilution overhang caps the name; no theme acceleration, classic value-trap structure. Pass. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $3.05 offering price (June 4) confirms dilution overhang and an unabsorbed float; absent a volume reclaim of $5 (Cantor PT) with the remaining ~$50M shelf exhausted, no momentum setup exists. --- ### DDOG — Datadog, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DDOG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software Next catalyst: 2026-06-09 Thesis: Observability/cyber ACCEL, RSI reset to 59.5, but ATH $278 blow-off unwinding -16% with CEO+2 execs selling the high; DASH 6/9 swing. Mid-pullback off a parabola knife not base. --- ### DELL — Dell Technologies Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DELL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Next catalyst: 2026-05-18 Thesis: AI-enterprise ACCELERATING but own parabola cracked ~20% off the $475 ATH, sliced the low-$400s base; wait for a higher-low re-base, SNOW is our cluster expression. --- ### DNUT — Krispy Kreme, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DNUT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: restaurants-dining, consumer-discretionary-turnaround, broken-ipo Thesis: Broken-IPO turnaround, not an accelerating story. The McDonald's national rollout the whole 2024 growth thesis was paused May 2025 after demand faded; what remains is a leveraged, dividend-suspended restructuring trading in low single digits vs a $17 IPO. The June 5 2026 pop is a low-quality oversold bounce. Stand aside on fresh entries. Invalidation trigger: Squeeze bounce fails: a daily close back under the pre-June-5 base (~$3 est.) with no partner news resumes the broken-IPO downtrend. Conversely a weekly close above the declining 200-DMA on volume plus an operating catalyst would flip the read to tradeable long. --- ### DSGN — Design Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DSGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, rare-disease-genetic-medicine Thesis: Only 2026 binary already fired against momentum: RESTORE-FA topline (2026-05-18) gapped +14% then closed -28.88% at $10.22 as n=16 open-label 4-week data underwhelmed the run toward $17. Now drifting low-$10s ($10.65, 2026-06-05) with no hard catalyst until ~2H-2026. Spent narrative, broken structure not a momentum entry. Invalidation trigger: No long unless a weekly close reclaims the $14.37 data-day high (2026-05-18) on expanding volume. A daily close below $9.90 (reversal floor) confirms continuation lower. New SAE/ALT escalation in the RESTORE-FA extension, a DT-168 FECD biomarker miss, or a Q4-2026 registrational-path setback kills the platform read. --- ### DVA — DaVita Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DVA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: health-managed-care, dialysis-kidney-care, glp1-secondary-effects Thesis: GLP-1-fear-reversal + census-recovery re-rate (+70% YTD) is already paid out: spot ~$192 sits below the $193.71 avg PT, ~5% off the ATH, tape flat 3 weeks, Berkshire trimming, no catalyst until the ~early-Aug Q2 print. MATURING toward SATURATED fresh entry here chases a completed move. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-week EMA (~$165) breaks the uptrend; OR Q2 2026 print (~early Aug) shows treatments/day below Q1's 91,650 with no guidance raise the volume-recovery narrative has rolled over. --- ### DXYZ — Destiny Tech100 Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DXYZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite, spacex-ipo-proxy, private-tech-cef, retail-narrative-vehicle Next catalyst: 2026-06-11 Thesis: SpaceX-proxy closed-end fund rolling over into its own catalyst: NAV premium compressed from ~151% (May 21) to ~70% (June 5) while a $1B Jefferies ATM prints supply into the froth. The June 11–12 SpaceX IPO is the binary, but it strips out the scarcity premium that justifies the markup a sell-the-structure event, not a buy. SATURATED. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $40 shelf, or premium-to-NAV compressing under ~50% (≈ <$37 vs $24.56 NAV), confirms the pre-IPO premium unwind and ends any long. Reclaim of $50 on volume would reset the read. --- ### ELVR — Elevra Lithium Limited URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ELVR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: critical-minerals-lithium, commodity-materials-rare-earths, north-american-supply-security Thesis: Lithium-recovery narrative that ran ELVR ~5-6x is now correcting: ADR ~$75 (-8.5% Jun 5, ~25% off the $101.50 high) as Li carbonate rolls over from its May 13 two-year peak (-13%/month) on supply restarts. May's A$441M package de-risked the balance sheet, but the momentum leg is maturing and sell-side is fully caught up falling knife, not a clean entry. Invalidation trigger: Spodumene back below US$2,000/t or Li carbonate below ~CNY 150,000/t (commodity rally over), OR a weekly ELVR close below the ~$68 post-placement base / loss of the 20-week EMA abandons the May breakout and confirms the correction. --- ### ENPH — Enphase Energy, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ENPH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, solar-clean-energy, ai-datacenter-power Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Washed-out resi-solar name re-rated ~+66%/month into a short squeeze on the IQ SST AI-data-center power-electronics pivot (announced 2026-04-28). Post-parabolic (RSI 73-77, 50<200-EMA) and the 2026-06-17 FOMC dot-plot is a direct rate threat to the rate-sensitive solar core late-stage squeeze, not a fresh entry. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the rising 20-EMA / loss of the May breakout shelf, or a hawkish 2026-06-17 FOMC dot-plot either confirms the squeeze unwinding into a rate-hostile tape for solar. Re-engage only on a higher-low 20-EMA reclaim post-FOMC. --- ### ERAS — Erasca, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ERAS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ras-oncology, small-cap-biotech-binary Next catalyst: 2026-04-25 Thesis: Pan-RAS molecular-glue binary that already split: ERAS-0015 posted best-in-class early Phase 1 ORRs (62–75% NSCLC) on 2026-04-27, then shares fell ~48% on a treatment-related Grade 5 pneumonitis death plus Revolution Medicines' '225-patent challenge. Now a choppy recovery ($10→$13→$11.97) on 2026-06-04 BofA/KeyBanc upgrades; the IP litigation is an unresolved legal binary, not a clean momentum setup. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the ~$10 post-crash base on volume; OR Revolution Medicines files a formal infringement suit or wins injunctive relief on ERAS-0015 ('225 patent); OR a second treatment-related Grade 5 event in ERAS-0015 expansion; OR an equity raise/ATM priced below ~$12. --- ### ESPR — Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ESPR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: merger-arbitrage, biotech-take-private, cardiovascular-therapeutics Thesis: Take-private kills the momentum trade: ARCHIMED $3.16/sh cash + CVR (announced 2026-05-01, close Q3-2026) pins the stock at the deal price. Last ~$3.14 = ~0.6% arb spread to cash plus a near-free CVR fixed-income-shaped, not narrative velocity. Theme DEAD for momentum; no leg to ride. Pass. Invalidation trigger: Daily close above $3.16 cash deal price = competing-bid signal that re-opens upside; absent that the name is a capped arb, not a momentum trade. Deal break (shareholder vote fails or regulatory/financing collapse) reverts the stock toward the ~$2.00 pre-deal level (~-36%). --- ### ETON — Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ETON/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, specialty-pharma-rollup, rare-disease-approvals Next catalyst: 2026-05-11 Thesis: Binary resolved bullish: Q1 2026 (printed 5/14) beat EPS $0.14 vs $0.09, revenue $24.3M vs $22.3M, FY26 guide raised to >$120M; HCW Buy, PT $57 (5/15); IMPAVIDO license added 5/19. The rollup beat-and-raise is now confirmed in the numbers, but the next dated catalyst is the Q2 print (~Aug 2026), the first guide reset under the new CFO. Chasing a 3-week-old beat into a no-catalyst gap with a MATURING theme is probe-only. Invalidation trigger: Q2 print (~Aug 2026) cuts FY26 guide below the raised >$120M floor, or Q2 product revenue prints under the $24.3M Q1 run-rate; an ATM/secondary 8-K inside 30 days of the print is an immediate structural skip. --- ### EVER — EverQuote, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/EVER/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: insurtech-marketplace, auto-insurance-adspend-cycle, home-insurance-vertical-expansion Thesis: Auto-insurance ad-spend recovery has matured Q1'26 rev +15% to $190.9M, third straight quarter plateaued ~$190M. Post-earnings bounce ran +36% over 4 weeks to ~$20 — but stalled under the 200-DMA ~$22.49 and is now fading. No accelerating leg; home/renters (+33%) is the only emergent thread. Watch-only until a volume reclaim of the 200-DMA. Q2 print 2026-08-10 is outside the window. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the rising 50-DMA (~$17.50) ends the post-earnings bounce and reverts price to the $14–17 base. No momentum long while capped under the 200-DMA ~$22.49. Thesis fully broken if Q2'26 print (2026-08-10) shows VMD below the $55M guide floor carrier ad-spend rollover, not plateau. --- ### EXTR — Extreme Networks, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/EXTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-06-10 Thesis: Legacy enterprise-networking name re-rated ~+98% in 3mo on the "Platform ONE/Agent ONE" AI-NetOps story + SaaS ARR +29% YoY. Now MATURING: spot $28.02 sits ABOVE consensus PT ~$26, two CEO insider blocks sold into the high, stock just rolled off the $29.78 52-wk high, and the only 30-day event is a soft June 10 fireside. Fresh-entry edge gone at the high the asymmetric entry is a 20-EMA pullback. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $24.50 (early-May breakout pivot) negates the breakout; weekly close below the 20-week EMA (~$22) ends the re-rate. Fundamentally: Q4 revenue below the $330M guide floor or SaaS ARR growth decelerating below ~20% YoY. --- ### FAC — Factorial Energy Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FAC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: solid-state-battery, ev-battery-tech, de-spac-momentum, defense-ai-power Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Freshly de-SPAC'd solid-state battery name (listed 2026-06-08, ~$1.3B). The real 2026-06-11 Stellantis road-test milestone (375 Wh/kg, 18-min charge) is technical de-risking, but the debut already ripped $13.80→$25.33 and is reversing hard; sell-the-news on the milestone confirms exhausted buyers. Emergent theme, post-mania fade no clean long until it bases above ~$13.80. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $13.80 debut-close shelf confirms the post-mania downtrend toward the $9.26 floor; a long only re-opens on a higher-low base that reclaims ~$18 on rising volume. --- ### FCEL — FuelCell Energy, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FCEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, ai-datacenter-power, fuel-cell, hydrogen Next catalyst: 2026-06-08 Thesis: AI data-center-power parabola has broken FCEL fell ~30% in three sessions to $17.33 (Jun 5) into a binary Q2 print Monday 2026-06-08 before open. Still ~2x the $8.24 analyst PT (6 Hold/1 Sell/1 Strong Sell, 0 Buys), and the whole fuel-cell complex is unwinding together. Post-blowoff, not a fresh entry. Invalidation trigger: Q2 print 2026-06-08 misses ~$40.5M revenue consensus, guides down, or discloses an ATM/follow-on raise; OR a daily close below ~$16 loses the breakout shelf / ~20-EMA and opens the gap toward the $8.24 average analyst PT. --- ### FIVN — Five9, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FIVN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms, ccaas-agentic-ai, ai-self-disruption-saas Thesis: Contested legacy-CCaaS AI pivot, NOT accelerating: AI ARR +68% (~$125M) but core seat revenue only +8% and total growth decelerated to +9% (Q1, 4/30). Price rolling over $26.26 (6/1) → $23.52 (6/5, -10% in 4 days) as Salesforce Agentforce Contact Center (launched 3/10) attacks the seat layer. No catalyst for ~7 weeks. Watch, don't chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $22 = post-Q1 recovery base lost; below $20 = recovery dead. Bull re-rate needs a weekly close back above $26. Q2 print (~late-Jul/early-Aug) with AI ARR YoY decel below 50% while core seat revenue goes flat-to-negative confirms self-disruption outrunning monetization. --- ### FLY — Firefly Aerospace Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FLY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite Next catalyst: 2026-06-12 Thesis: Space-defense mania ran parabolic into the 6/12 SpaceX IPO; FLY then gave back ~25% from its $48 May secondary to ~$36 on dilution (12M-sh offering + 11.11M resale registration) and IPO fatigue (RDW/MNTS -20%). Business is accelerating Q1 rev +45% YoY, $1.3B backlog, Golden Dome/SciTec software but the tape and theme are saturating with a sell-the-news catalyst dead ahead. Broken parabolic; wait for a post-IPO base, don't chase. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the 2026-06-06 low (~$35.50), or the listed space complex (RDW, MNTS) staying red through the 6/12 SpaceX (SPCX) debut confirms theme SATURATED and supply overhang wins; no entry. Reclaim of $45 (IPO price) on volume flips it back constructive. --- ### FPS — Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FPS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, ai-datacenter-power Thesis: Industrial-power-for-AI name printed a ~30% revenue beat + raised FY26 guide (May 14), pulling a five-firm PT cluster to $51–60 then dropped a $1.34B sponsor-exit secondary at $47 (May 29) that capped the clean momentum leg. Theme accelerating; stock now overhang-bound. Watch a reclaim-and-base above $47, not a chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the $47 May-29 offering price (supply overhang prevails), or FY26 revenue guide cut back below the $1.35B floor, or a second dilutive secondary announced. --- ### FROG — JFrog Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FROG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software Next catalyst: 2026-06-26 Thesis: Supply-chain-security ACCEL but extended: above the $80.75 consensus PT, near 52w high, fwd P/E 88, Cramer flagged valuation, no catalyst ~8wks. WATCH for low-$80s 20-EMA / $70 shelf. --- ### FTNT — Fortinet, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FTNT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software Thesis: Cyber MATURING→SATURATED: +56% YTD above nearly every PT, RSI ~80, CNBC/IBD retail-late coverage, no catalyst to 8/12. WATCH for a 20-EMA pullback ~$130, not the 52w-high chase. --- ### FTRE — Fortrea Holdings Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FTRE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cro-clinical-trials, biotech-funding-recovery, healthcare-turnaround Next catalyst: 2026-06-04 Thesis: Busted Labcorp CRO spin running a real margin turnaround Q1 adj EBITDA +55% YoY, margin +270bps to 7.4%, book-to-bill 1.15x (3rd straight Q >1.1x). But the catalyst is spent: stock 4x'd off $3.97 to ~$15.64, RSI ~80, +51% over the 50-day, ~7% upside to Street avg. Thesis intact, entry stretched no chase here. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (~$13); or trailing book-to-bill drops under 1.0x; or FY26 adj-EBITDA guide ($190–220M) cut on the ~early-August Q2 print. --- ### FWRD — Forward Air Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/FWRD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, freight-logistics-cycle, busted-merger-workout Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Strategic review ended with NO buyer (confirmed 2026-05-08) Clearlake/Apollo walked and a ~$250M customer (~10% of revenue) is leaving starting 2027. The deal-premium thesis that was the only reason to watch this is dead; PTs slashed to $17-18, stock cratered ~45% to ~$10. Deleveraging-grind, not a momentum setup. Narrative velocity decisively negative. Invalidation trigger: No momentum case unless BOTH a definitive Intermodal/Omni divestiture cuts net leverage below ~4x AND a weekly close reclaims the 40-week MA. A weekly close below ~$8 confirms breakdown continuation; an unresolved ~$250M customer exit keeps it DEAD. --- ### GBTG — Global Business Travel Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GBTG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: merger-arbitrage, m-and-a-special-situations, consumer-discretionary-rebound Thesis: Signed take-private: Long Lake buys Amex GBT at $9.50/share cash (~$6.3B), close 2H 2026, 69% of holders locked via voting agreements. Stock pinned under $9.50 pure merger-arb, ~1.7% capped upside vs ~36% deal-break tail. No momentum leg; not the setup. Invalidation trigger: As long-arb, breaks on an 8-K terminating/revising the $9.50 Long Lake merger, a regulatory block, or price losing $8.50 (rising break odds → revert toward pre-deal ~$5.94, −36%). Already invalid as momentum: price capped at $9.50. --- ### GCO — Genesco Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GCO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands Next catalyst: 2026-05-28 Thesis: Q1 FY27 binary fired beat-and-raise (Journeys +5%, 7th straight positive-comp quarter, FY adj-EPS guide lifted to $2.00–2.40). Live activist proxy contest (Radoff/Jumana ~8%, 4 board nominees) is the next catalyst. But the earnings event is behind it and ~$38.69 trades above the avg analyst PT (~$33–37.50) with sell-side fading. Special-situation probe, not an accelerating narrative. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close that fills the 2026-05-29 earnings gap / loses the 20-EMA toward the low-$30s (avg analyst PT zone ~$33–37.50), OR Q2 FY27 (late Aug) Journeys comps decelerate below +3%, OR the contested annual meeting passes with no board change and price back below $33. --- ### GEN — Gen Digital Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software Thesis: Cyber/legacy pivot, FY27 guide raised 8-10% but tape MATURING/range-bound, Hold consensus, -3.3% YTD, no momentum breakout. WATCH for a $27.76 — reclaim with the group. --- ### GH — Guardant Health, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: Liquid-biopsy ACCELERATING but late re-rated +30% into the $136 consensus PT as the upgrade cluster completed; DXCM cleaner. --- ### GOOG — Alphabet Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GOOG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms Thesis: AI re-acceleration confirmed (Q1 +22% YoY, Cloud +63%), but the June 3 ~$85B equity raise adds dilution overhang and the June 6 market-wide AI-bubble selloff flips mag7 toward saturation. Megacap consolidating under its 50-day, no GOOG catalyst until ~late-July Q2 a 50-day-reclaim watch, not an accelerating chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 200-day MA (~$370), OR Google Cloud growth decelerating below ~45% YoY at the next print, OR an antitrust order forcing a Chrome/Android divestiture any one breaks the AI re-acceleration leg. --- ### GTX — Garrett Motion Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, datacenter-cooling-thermal, turbo-auto-supply, buyback-compounder Thesis: Turbo supplier re-rated into a datacenter/industrial oil-free cooling narrative (Ingersoll Rand + Trane). But the move already happened: +210% YoY to all-time highs (~$32–34), sell-side fully caught up (BWS $42 on 2026-06-01, Stifel $36, Northland $34), multiple re-rated to ~18x, and no dated catalyst until the ~late-July Q2 print. MATURING, late-stage chase not the early fat pitch this style targets. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (~$28–29 breakout base); or FY26 sales guide cut below the $3.6B floor; or no industrial/datacenter-cooling revenue traction on the ~late-July Q2 CY2026 print. --- ### HAE — Haemonetics Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HAE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: Defensive med-tech turnaround, MATURING character, no narrative velocity; recovery bounce toward a depressed PT cluster wrong archetype for size. --- ### HELE — Helen of Troy Limited URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HELE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands Thesis: Post-earnings pop fully round-tripped: HELE fell ~28% from the late-April ~$33.73 spike back to $24.34 (2026-06-06), now resting on the $23-25 analyst PT cluster. Momentum structure broken, no accelerating leg, Q1 FY2027 (~early July) guided roughly breakeven. Dormant watch, not a fresh long. Invalidation trigger: Dormant call flips actionable on a weekly close back above the broken 50-DMA (~$27) with a higher-low base and consumer-discretionary re-accelerating, or a reclaim of the $33.73 cycle high on >1.5x volume. Bear extends on a daily close below $23 (Canaccord PT / support). --- ### HPE — Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HPE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Thesis: AI-server ACCELERATING theme but own setup failed +25% record blowoff round-tripped to ~$49 gap-fill, catalyst spent to ~Sept. --- ### HPK — HighPeak Energy, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HPK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: oil-energy-geopolitical, permian-oil-eandp, hormuz-supply-shock Thesis: Oil-geopolitical war-premium proxy on WTI, $1.1B net debt, weaker derivative structure; reverses on any ceasefire binary macro, not a clean setup. --- ### HPP — Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HPP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: office-cre-recovery, ai-office-leasing-demand, rate-relief-cyclicals Thesis: Office/studio REIT special-sit at/above its $12-14 PT cluster, RSI 84 parabolic, ~$566M CMBS maturity wall 2H26 single-name binary, not theme momentum. --- ### HTZ — Hertz Global Holdings, Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HTZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: robotaxi-av-fleet, legacy-pivot-mobility, short-squeeze-beta Next catalyst: 2026-05-01 Thesis: Robotaxi-pivot narrative (Oro Mobility running Uber/Lucid/Nuro AV fleets, unveiled 2026-04-30) gapped HTZ +22%, and a 3-year-best Q1 print (+11% revenue) followed yet both faded and the stock sits $5.08 near 52-week lows by 2026-06-06. Structure rolled over, no firm catalyst in 30 days; DORMANT no-touch. The ~47% short float keeps squeeze potential loaded but unfused. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $3.78 52-week low on rising volume = AV-pivot narrative rejected, squeeze structure dead. No long probe warranted until a reclaim of the $6.85 (2026-04-30 deal-day) high on >2× average volume. --- ### IART — Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IART/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: Med-device turnaround re-rating banked price above every raised PT, organic only +1.3%, idiosyncratic (no peer cluster); no edge today. --- ### ICHR — Ichor Holdings URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ICHR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment, wfe-recovery-2026, ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-04-24 Thesis: WFE-recovery thesis has fired and is now mid-correction: Q1 (2026-05-04) beat at $256M revenue +15% QoQ, Q2 guided $290–310M, stock +241% YTD into a $78 high. Now unwinding hard -11.5% on 2026-06-05 through the 20- and 50-day amid director selling. Post-mania pullback; no fresh-entry edge until structure resets. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 50-day (~$64) on >1.5x avg volume, then loss of the May-04 gap / $50–55 shelf = post-print leg exhausted, full reset needed. Fundamental kill: Q2 revenue below the $290–310M guide, GM back under ~12%, or LRCX/AMAT cutting CY2026 WFE outlook. --- ### IHRT — iHeartMedia, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IHRT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, radio-audio-legacy-media, podcast-digital-audio Thesis: M&A special-sit the only live leg decayed from "on ice" (NYT, 2026-05-29) to "fizzled out" (thedesk.net, 2026-06-01) over the same station-divestiture/antitrust impasse; the $6.56 deal-spec spike has fully round-tripped to ~$4.40. No accelerating narrative a mid-5x-levered radio name with Adj EBITDA -11.4% YoY. pass until talks revive with actual terms. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 200-day SMA (~$3.62), or an explicit deal-abandonment statement from either company confirms the M&A optionality is dead and opens the $2.30–2.75 forecast path. Never average down. --- ### ILMN — Illumina, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ILMN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: clinical-genomics-sequencing, legacy-turnaround-rerate, m-and-a-activism-special-sits Thesis: Recognition-phase genomics re-rate that already ran ~96% in a year; now fading from a new $177 high to ~$163 while activist director Corvex/Meister dumps ~$107M into strength and price sits ~13% above the $143.83 avg PT. MATURING with first distribution showing a chase at the highs. Cleaner entry is a hold of the ~$150s base or the early-Aug Q2 confirmation. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$150 breakout base / rising 50-day (~$152) breaks the momentum structure; or Q2'26 (~2026-08-06) revenue <$1.07B or clinical consumables growth decelerating below 15% YoY; or further large activist/insider selling beyond the ~$107M Corvex sale. --- ### INBX — Inhibrx Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INBX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, oncology-dr5-agonist, clinical-catalyst-biotech Next catalyst: 2026-06-22 Thesis: Post-spike DR5-agonist biotech bleeding in a catalyst vacuum: $155→$87 (-44%), sold its own HNSCC beat, now grinding toward the $78 floor. Chondrosarcoma BLA confirmed submitted; FDA filing-acceptance decision (~late June, soft) is the next binary. Narrative intact but tape corrective an event name to buy on acceptance confirmation or a higher-low base, not a falling knife at $87. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$78 (loses post-April consolidation floor, opens air to the $60 pre-spike shelf); OR FDA refuse-to-file / CRL on the chondrosarcoma BLA; OR a dilutive equity raise priced >15% below market. --- ### INDI — indie Semiconductor, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INDI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: automotive-adas-silicon, edge-ai-sensing Thesis: Improving automotive ADAS-silicon design-win story ($7.4B backlog, $25M radar order) collides with a freshly broken tape: -16% on 2026-06-05 to $4.05 snapped both the $4.15 breakout shelf and the ~$4.00 50-day MA, with two analyst downgrades / zero upgrades and no catalyst until the 2026-08-06 Q2 print. Broken structure, dead window no-touch until it reclaims $4.81+. Invalidation trigger: Structure already broke: 2026-06-05 close $4.05 lost the $4.15 May shelf and ~$4.00 50-day MA. Sustained closes below ~$4.00 confirm a failed breakout (no-touch; low-$3s next). Re-arms only on a reclaim of $4.81 / 50-day high $5.34 on volume with auto-semi peers confirming. A dilutive raise, or Q2 (2026-08-06) organic core ex-Wuxi below ~$37M, = further thesis hit. --- ### INOD — Innodata Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INOD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-training-data, ai-data-engineering, big-tech-ai-capex Thesis: AI training-data pure-play with a real ACCELERATING narrative (Q1 rev +54%, FY guide raised twice), but the parabola just rolled: -16% on 2026-06-05 to $101.97 off the $125.14 ATH, into a cluster of insider selling (CEO/COO/directors dumped ~$35M+ late May–early June). Now sitting on the $100 line with no catalyst for ~8 weeks. Falling knife, not a base. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $100 the post-gap consolidation floor being tested after the 2026-06-05 -16% reversal; below it the parabola has rolled and the momentum leg is broken. Also: Q2 (~2026-07-30) guidance cut or disclosure that the ~56% anchor customer is reducing spend. --- ### IPX — IperionX Limited URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IPX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: commodity-materials-rare-earths, domestic-critical-minerals, defense-industrial-base Next catalyst: 2026-06-04 Thesis: Titan DFS fired 2026-06-04 and sold the news hard ASX -10.3% then NASDAQ -12.58% to $35.22, a ~22% two-day unwind that lost the $36 recovery shelf. Heavy-REE sovereignty narrative intact, but the momentum leg broke; digestion tape now. Re-engage only above ~$40–42 on volume or on a DoD REE backstop. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $33 (loses the March-recovery base off the $29.44 low) confirms the recovery structure has failed. Also any equity raise priced >10% below spot, or SEC/class-action escalation of the Frank R. Cruz securities probe. --- ### IRDM — Iridium Communications Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IRDM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite, satellite-connectivity Next catalyst: 2026-04-23 Thesis: Satellite-connectivity narrative has matured: the 2026-04-08 FCC spectrum order and the Q1 print already ran IRDM from ~$34 to a $53.83 high, and Oppenheimer's $60 PT (2026-06-03) is sell-side catching up late-stage recognition, not an early read. Spot ~$46.68 trades ~35% above the ~$34 Hold consensus on soft Q1 numbers (EPS $0.20 missed $0.28, rev +2% YoY). No fresh binary until Q2 on 2026-07-28; chasing here buys extension. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 50-day MA (~$40 / prior breakout shelf); or Q2 print 2026-07-28 cuts FY2026 guide or shows service revenue decelerating below +2% YoY; or commercial broadband decline steepens past -5%. --- ### IRWD — Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IRWD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: gi-therapeutics, pharma-strategic-review-ma, specialty-pharma-turnaround Next catalyst: 2026-05-06 Thesis: Thesis inverted vs prior coverage: Linzess wasn't a melting ice cube a 2026 AbbVie pricing restructure (lower list, lower gross-to-net) drove US net sales +97% YoY (Q1 $272.5M), FY EBITDA guide >$300M. Apraglutide binary is dead for years (FDA requires a confirmatory Phase 3). Live story is a levered cash-cow turnaround + a stale Goldman strategic review; stock already ~6x'd off $0.56 lows to ~$3.45. Momentum leg spent pass. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$2.50 (re-rate stalling); OR Goldman strategic review formally terminated with no deal; OR Q2 2026 print (~early Aug) shows Linzess net sales reverting toward prior-year levels, confirming a one-time gross-to-net optical bump rather than durable growth. --- ### JBIO — Jade Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/JBIO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, iga-nephropathy-axis, april-baff-autoimmune Next catalyst: 2026-07-07 Thesis: Binary fired 2026-06-01 JADE101 Phase 1 beat (~70% IgA, q12w dosing, clean safety), PTs jumped (BTIG $74) but the tape sold the news and the company printed a dilutive $150M raise at $15.00 (2026-06-04). Catalyst spent; next own readout is 2027. No near-term momentum leg DORMANT, probe-only on a re-base above the ~$18 absorption shelf. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $15.00 offering price (underwritten floor lost, supply overhang winning); or VERA atacicept PDUFA 2026-07-07 passes with no category bid and JBIO fails to reclaim the ~$18 offering-absorption shelf on ≥2x ADV. --- ### JBLU — JetBlue Airways Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/JBLU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: airline-consolidation-2026, legacy-carrier-turnaround, jet-fuel-cost-cycle Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: Spirit's May liquidation handed JBLU a Florida capacity windfall Q2 RASM guide raised to +9-12%, ex-Spirit routes outperforming. But the same Hormuz-driven fuel spike that killed Spirit ($4.26-4.36/gal, ~40% recapture) caps the bottom line. Now a leveraged fuel-mean-reversion bet on a sub-$5 turnaround, not a bankruptcy binary; no clean leg until it reclaims the ~$5.08 long-term MA. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $4.20 toward the $3.84 52-week low on expanding volume; OR a company update cuts Q2 RASM guide below +9% (Spirit windfall fading); OR jet fuel sustained above $4.50/gal (the level that liquidated Spirit). --- ### JOBY — Joby Aviation, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/JOBY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: evtol-mobility, urban-air-mobility, ev-autonomous-mobility Thesis: eVTOL cert narrative still accelerating (FAA Stage 4/5, Dubai 2026 first-passenger target), but price broke down ~12.4% on June 5 to ~$9.76 on no news, losing the 200-day and testing the 50-day EMA. Recovery base failing into mainstream-coverage saturation with no hard catalyst in 30d wait-for-reclaim, not a fresh long. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the June-5 low (~$9.47) confirms loss of the recovery base and opens the $7.49 52-week low; OR Dubai first-passenger launch slips to 2027 / FAA TIA flight testing pushed past Q4-2026; OR Q2 print (~Aug 5) cuts FY26 revenue guide below the $105M floor. --- ### KALU — Kaiser Aluminum Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KALU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: tariff-protected-metals, aluminum-supply-shock, reshoring-industrials Next catalyst: 2026-06-08 Thesis: Aluminum tariff supply-shock + Q1 inflection already drove KALU +156% YoY to ATHs; clean leg ran Feb–Apr. The 2026-06-08 proclamation codifies the 50% core rate through 2027 but adds 15% carve-outs that cap the premium tailwind confirmation, not a fresh accelerant. ~$185 trades above all five analyst PTs (high $183) with no binary until the ~late-July Q2 print. MATURING; chasing ATH here is a probe at best. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$170 post-Q1 consolidation floor (50-day) = momentum leg broken; OR US Midwest premium back under ~$1,800/tonne as June-8 carve-outs/de-escalation compress it; OR Q2 (~late-July) conversion-revenue guide cut below the prior +10–15% raise. --- ### KALV — KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KALV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: pending-acquisition-cash-deal, merger-arbitrage, biotech-precision-therapeutics, hae-rare-disease Next catalyst: 2026-06-10 Thesis: Near-closed $27.00/share all-cash Chiesi takeout: all antitrust/FDI gates cleared (HSR 5/28, Germany 5/27, Italy 5/29); only the majority-tender condition remains, expiring 2026-06-10. Stock pinned ~$26.66, ~1.3% to deal vs ~40% break downside. No momentum leg, delisting imminent clear pass, merger-arb not momentum. Invalidation trigger: Deal-break: tender fails the majority condition by 2026-06-10 (no extension), merger terminated, or price closes below $25 → standalone reverts to ~$15-16 (52-wk low $9.83). Only upside reset is a competing bid >$27.00. Absent either, stays pass through delisting. --- ### KEEL — Keel Infrastructure Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KEEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-datacenter-power, bitcoin-miner-ai-pivot, industrial-power-ai Next catalyst: 2026-06-09 Thesis: Bitfarms-reborn BTC-miner→AI-datacenter pivot (rebranded 2026-04-06). Re-rate still hinges on signing the first HPC/AI lease none signed. The upsized $400M convert (priced 06-05, ~$7.41 strike) confirmed the funding gap; stock rolled from $6.60 high to ~$5.13. Momentum leg is cracking, not accelerating. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $5.00 (breakout shelf the financing selloff is now testing) confirms the trend break toward the $4.00–$4.20 launch base; OR Q2 print (~Aug 2026) with still zero signed HPC/AI leases; OR an at-market follow-on equity raise on top of the $400M convert. --- ### KFRC — Kforce Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KFRC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: staffing-cycle-recovery, ai-consulting-demand, labor-market-inflection Thesis: Cyclical staffing inflection printed on the 2026-04-27 Q1 beat (+17–20% gap, first YoY revenue stabilization in 2 yrs; Q2 guided +~4% YoY, AI-consulting pipeline +50%). But the catalyst leg is spent ~$46.55 sits above the $42 analyst PT band, no peer cluster, next print ~2026-07-27. Probe only. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$41 fills the post-Q1 gap and voids the breakout (or loss of the ~$45 pivot); OR Q2 print (~2026-07-27) shows revenue back under $340M / YoY growth re-stalling toward flat. --- ### KMX — CarMax Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KMX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands, used-vehicle-retail, auto-affordability-cycle, short-squeeze-positioning Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Pre-earnings short-squeeze/positioning ramp (+15.8% in May, activist + heavy short interest) into a binary 2026-06-17 Q1 print; consensus models a ~32% YoY EPS decline plus GPU and CAF compression, and two banks are Underweight at $31–37 vs ~$52 spot the momentum is positioning fuel, not fundamental acceleration. Invalidation trigger: Q1 FY2027 (2026-06-17) adjusted EPS below ~$1.00 consensus, retail comp used units worse than -2%, or a post-print daily close back below the ~$44 May breakout shelf. --- ### KODK — Eastman Kodak Company URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KODK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: legacy-industrial-pivot, battery-materials-onshoring, specialty-pharma-reagents, pension-reversion-realized Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: Pension-reversion fat pitch already fired completed Dec 2 2025, ~$767M to the balance sheet, now net-cash >$300M and the re-rate ran to a $14.87 high before a ~32% correction to ~$9.7 (pivot-top sell signal May 6). What's left is a slow legacy-pivot into battery-electrode coating and pharma reagents with no scheduled 30-day catalyst and momentum rolled over. Fresh entry is a digestion probe, not a chase. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $9.00 on >3M shares = post-spike correction extends toward the rising 200-day (~$7) then the $6 base. Or Q2 print (~early Aug) with AM&C revenue flat/down sequentially and no named offtake = transformation stalling. --- ### KOS — Kosmos Energy Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KOS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: oil-energy-geopolitical, lng-ramp, oil-beta-levered, energy-e-and-p Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: The +214%-YTD deleveraging + GTA-ramp turnaround is fully recognized and losing its tailwind. Q1 (2026-05-05) resolved the binary bullishly record 74.8 kboepd, 9.5 LNG cargoes, debt-cut target doubled to ~20% but that print drove the run rather than leads it. With Brent off its April $117 high to ~$94 and Mizuho cutting the most-levered peer to Underperform (PT $3), the stock sits on $3 in a MATURING/SATURATED tape with no fresh accelerating leg. Invalidation trigger: Brent closes below $80 for 5 consecutive sessions, OR a weekly close below the rising 50-DMA (low-$2s), OR FY2026 gross LNG-cargo guidance cut below the 32–36 range any one ends the deleveraging/FCF-ramp thesis. --- ### KSS — Kohls Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/KSS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands, retail-squeeze, tariff-refund-catalyst Thesis: Deep-value, heavily-shorted department-store turnaround: Citigroup Buy/$22 (2026-06-01) plus a $190M tariff-refund cash catalyst into a 40%+ short book is squeeze fuel. Tactical squeeze trade on a declining business, MATURING narrative sell-side is already catching up, not early. Invalidation trigger: Daily/weekly close back below the early-June upgrade shelf (the $14–16 zone around TD Cowen's $16 anchor), OR short interest covering below ~30% of float without price follow-through squeeze fuel gone, value-trap structure reasserts. --- ### LAC — Lithium Americas Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LAC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: critical-minerals-sovereignty, lithium-supply-deficit, energy-storage-demand Thesis: US critical-minerals-sovereignty + lithium-recovery play (Gov + GM each ~5% via warrants, $2.23B DOE loan), but pre-revenue to late-2027. The June pop fully retraced to the $4.50 base as carbonate rolls off its May high and the H2'26 deficit call splits deficit-vs-surplus. LAC is the weakest, highest-beta vehicle in a now-MATURING theme. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the $4.50 May base; OR China battery-grade carbonate sustained back under ~CNY 160,000/t (now ~180k, off the 200,500 May high); OR a discounted ATM/equity raise priced under $5 any one breaks the recovery + sovereignty leg. --- ### LAR — Lithium Argentina AG URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LAR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: lithium-battery-materials, ev-supply-chain-recovery, m-and-a-activism-special-sits Next catalyst: 2026-06-19 Thesis: Lithium-recovery momentum proxy is rolling over: China carbonate spot -18.7% from the May-13 high (CNY 200,500 → 163,000 on Jun-5) as Bald Hill/Finniss restarts and record GFEX warrants signal a supply response. The Q2 realized-price catch-up (Q1 realized $16,818 vs ~$25k spot) still prints mechanically in the ~Aug-12 report, but the forward leg is broken chasing a high-beta commodity proxy into a falling tape with the stock already at/above Street PTs has no edge. Invalidation trigger: China lithium carbonate holding below ~CNY 130,000/t (~$18,000/t) kills the Q2/Q3 realized catch-up; a LAR weekly close below the ~$8.00 breakout-retest shelf breaks price structure; Cauchari-Olaroz 2026 output tracking under the 35,000t low-guide removes the volume offset. --- ### LEGN — Legend Biotech Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LEGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-06-11 Thesis: In-vivo CAR-T re-rate but EHA full dataset 6/11-14 is a binary INSIDE 3 trading days; topline already leaked, durability risk both ways. Invalidation trigger: revisit after EHA 6/11-14 LB2501 full dataset confirms durability (no early relapses/DLTs); gap-fade below the ~$25.5 pre-gap base = thesis broken --- ### LIFE — Ethos Technologies Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LIFE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: insurtech-ai, recent-ipo-growth, ai-vertical-software, short-report-battleground, ipo-lockup-overhang Next catalyst: 2026-06-16 Thesis: Post-earnings momentum leg has fully rolled over: LIFE broke the ~$17.50 consolidation floor (closed $16.82, 2026-06-05) as Bear Cave's upfront-accounting short thesis takes control and a June-16/July-27 lock-up supply cascade lands. Broken structure on a contested IPO avoid until a reclaim above ~$19.40 or a Q2 (~Aug) print validates the raised FY guide. Invalidation trigger: Prior ~$17.50 floor already lost (closed $16.82, 2026-06-05); a daily close below ~$16.55 (2026-06-05 low) opens the path toward the $9.45 52-week low. Long thesis only revives on a daily close reclaim above ~$19.40 AND a Q2 FY2026 (~Aug) print at/above the $114–118M guide. --- ### LMND — Lemonade, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LMND/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-consumer-disruptors Thesis: AI-insurtech fundamentals compounding but tape broken below all MAs, pinned on the $50 H&S neckline; falling knife until a weekly close reclaims ~$60. --- ### LOVE — The Lovesac Company URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LOVE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: furniture-retail, small-cap-consumer-discretionary, potential-short-squeeze, earnings-binary-catalyst Next catalyst: 2026-06-11 Thesis: Q1 FY27 prints BMO 2026-06-11 (call 8:30 ET) a hard binary into a company-guided LOSS quarter (rev $133–139M, EPS −$1.22/−$0.95) with shares near 52-wk lows (~$15.7 vs $10.33–$21.15 range). The 2026-03-26 beat pop (+23.7%) fully faded; furniture tape is dead. The only edge is a post-print gap-reclaim igniting the 27–31% short float not a pre-print entry. Invalidation trigger: Q1 FY27 (BMO 2026-06-11) revenue below the guided $133M floor, or FY27 net-sales guide cut under $700M; or post-print failure to reclaim the ≈$17 50-DMA on >2x volume; or a daily close below the ~$14 shelf toward the $10.33 52-wk low. --- ### LPG — Dorian Lpg Ltd URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LPG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: energy-tankers-oil-geopolitical, lpg-shipping-freight, middle-east-geopolitical-premium, us-energy-exports Thesis: The Hormuz-driven VLGC freight spike that took BLPG3 to a record ~$290/ton in mid-May has rolled over rates correcting hard into June as limited Strait traffic resumes (CNN 2026-06-02) and propane demand softens. Record Q4 ($1.90 EPS, 2026-05-20) and the $1 special div are spent; the cyclical topped near $48 and is mean-reverting at ~$40.77 with no dated catalyst until ~Aug. Strength has turned to reversion. Invalidation trigger: BLPG3 spot sustains below ~$150/ton (from the ~$290 mid-May peak) already underway confirming the rate spike is mean-reverting; OR a weekly close below the rising 20-week EMA (~$38). Either marks the cyclical top as in; avoid, do not average down. --- ### LUNR — Intuitive Machines, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LUNR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite Thesis: Space-basket mania rolled over: LUNR lost the NASA LTV contract to Blue Origin (5/26), launched a $500M ATM dilution (6/4), and S&P pulled the SpaceX-index catalyst (6/5) as the whole complex bled. SATURATED→deflating theme with a fresh supply overhang and no hard catalyst in 30d a fresh long is buying SpaceX-IPO fatigue. Invalidation trigger: Reclaim + weekly close above the ~$38 breakout shelf with the space basket making higher highs and the $500M ATM supply absorbed flips the avoid read constructive; a weekly close below the rising 50-DMA (~$25–26) confirms the mean-reversion leg and theme→DEAD. --- ### M — Macy's Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/M/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands, legacy-retail-turnaround, department-store-recovery Thesis: Macy's "Bold New Chapter" turnaround printed a clean Q1 beat (EPS $0.13 vs $0.03) and a twice-raised FY guide with growth across every banner, plus a fresh Berkshire stake but it ran to 3-year highs into the print, sell-side stayed Neutral, and the Q2 EPS guide came in light. Narrative is maturing, not accelerating; the binary is already spent. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close that loses the pre-print breakout shelf (back into the prior low-$20s base), or a negative Q2 comparable-sales print after Q1's all-banner growth either breaks the "defying retail gloom" turnaround leg. --- ### MARA — MARA Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MARA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: bitcoin-mining, bitcoin-miner-ai-pivot, gpu-cloud-neoclouds, ai-hpc-datacenter Next catalyst: 2026-07-03 Thesis: Bitcoin-miner-to-AI/HPC pivot, but the diversification bounce just round-tripped: MARA gave back the entire $12.44→$15.29 May rally and closed ~$12.32 (2026-06-05, -11.7%) on a Q1 double-miss while BTC broke $62K. No accelerating leg falling knife against a declining BTC tape, not a setup. Invalidation trigger: Avoid stance flips constructive only on a contracted AI/HPC revenue print from a Starwood site OR BTC weekly close >$72K with MARA reclaiming $15.30. Bear is confirmed on BTC weekly close <$60K or MARA losing the ~$12.30 swing low on a weekly basis. --- ### MDB — MongoDB, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MDB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Thesis: AI-database ACCEL, Atlas re-accel +29%, but the +18.5% gap round-tripped to $350, only ~3% above the $340 failed-breakout line. Narrative accelerating, structure cracking; SNOW cleaner. --- ### MEI — Methode Electronics URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MEI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-datacenter-power, industrial-power-ai, legacy-auto-pivot Next catalyst: 2026-07-08 Thesis: Data-center power-distribution pivot (busbars/power delivery into AI racks, ~$120M annualized run rate) is the re-rating story that ran MEI ~3x off its $4.88 low. But it's a loss-making, ~4x net-levered legacy auto supplier now trading ~30% above the highest analyst PT ($10), and the est. ~July 8 Q4/FY26 print is the binary. Theme accelerating, vehicle weak probe only. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the May breakout shelf (~$11), or the est. ~July 8 Q4/FY26 print showing the data-center power run rate stalling under ~$120M annualized, or FY26 adj. EBITDA landing below the already-cut $58–62M guide. --- ### MGM — MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MGM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: prediction-markets-sports-betting Thesis: Take-private special situation: Barry Diller's People Inc. Bid $48.30/share cash (~$18B) on 2026-06-01; stock gapped to within a few percent of the bid. The narrative leg already fired what's left is capped merger-arb spread (~3-5% up vs ~20% deal-break downside), not an accelerating move. Invalidation trigger: Topping/competing bid above $50 reopens upside (flips bullish); otherwise a deal-break headline (offer withdrawn or board rejection with no counter) or a daily close back toward the high-$30s undisturbed level confirms ~20% downside and the trade is off. --- ### MMED — MiniMed Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MMED/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-06-20 Thesis: Medtronic diabetes spinoff repricing as a pure-play automated-insulin-delivery / CGM story; the Abbott dual glucose-ketone exclusive sensor deal (2026-06-03) extends the ecosystem moat. But the Q4 print and the deal both fired the same day and price is parabolic (RSI mid-70s to low-80s) into a lowered $22 Wells Fargo target chase risk is high; the cleaner read is a pullback to moving-average support. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA / loss of the post-earnings breakout shelf; or next-quarter revenue printing below the $837M Q4 baseline; or the diabetes-device theme rolling to saturated with peers (DXCM, PODD, TNDM) breaking down together. --- ### MOH — Molina Healthcare, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MOH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: managed-care-rotation, medicaid-margin-trough, aca-marketplace-cliff Thesis: Managed-care trough-year rotation that ran its first leg and stalled. MOH closed $190.86 (Jun-5), ~+58% off the $121 low, drifting sideways; consensus analyst PT (~$172, Morgan Stanley $167 on Jun-4) now sits BELOW spot the relief rally outran fundamentals. MATURING, not accelerating; no catalyst until the Jul-22 Q2 print. LOW conviction. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $170 (fills the post-Q1 relief gap), OR Q2 2026 (reported 2026-07-22) Medicaid MCR re-expanding above ~93% / FY26 adj-EPS guide cut below $5.00 any signals the Medicaid cost trend is re-accelerating and the trough thesis is broken. --- ### MOV — Movado Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MOV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands, luxury-watch-brands, margin-expansion-turnaround Thesis: Legacy watch maker re-rated ~+37% in a month to all-time highs ($37.73, 2026-06-08) on a 320bp gross-margin beat (Q1 FY27, ~2026-06-04). But the revenue beat was FX-aided (+8.1% reported vs +4.5% constant-currency) and management pulled FY guidance on tariff risk with Q2 growth set to moderate a fresh entry at peak buys a fading tailwind. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$33 breakout shelf, or Q2 FY2027 constant-currency net sales turning negative (vs +4.5% cc in Q1), signaling the demand beat was FX not brand. --- ### MRAM — Everspin Technologies, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MRAM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: small-cap-ai-momentum, mram-niche-memory, retail-squeeze Thesis: Post-parabolic markdown: the AI-memory story behind a +300% run is breaking. Kerrisdale short (2026-05-19, $14 PT) reframed MRAM's top market as casino slot machines, not AI; price rolling ~$29 (06-04) → ~$23 (06-06) below every analyst PT (~$18); Director Finch dumped $8.5M of stock on 06-02. Squeeze unwinding, not a setup. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $22 (loses the 06-06 ~$23.03 low) confirms the post-parabolic markdown; with heavy insider distribution (Finch 310,091 sh @ ~$27.47, 06-02) and price still above all PTs (~$18), any AI-memory premium continues unwinding toward the $14–$18 target cluster. --- ### MRVI — Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MRVI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-06-04 Thesis: Post-COVID turnaround re-rate cooling, both catalysts public, no life-science-tools cluster confirmation, catalyst desert to ~Aug probe-only at best. --- ### MSFT — Microsoft Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MSFT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-mag7-software-platforms Thesis: Clean Q3 FY2026 beat (Azure +40%, above its own 37–38% guide) met a -3% selloff on the ~$190B FY26 capex guide the AI-capex narrative flipped from 'spend to win' to margin/FCF anxiety. Price stalled on the 200-day MA (~$414), ~22% under the $538 ATH, RSI ~53. No accelerating leg to buy; next binary (earnings) not until 2026-07-28. Invalidation trigger: Daily/weekly close below the 200-day MA (~$414) and loss of the $400 shelf voids any recovery long; the momentum entry does not trigger unless price reclaims and holds > $455 (0.786 fib / early-June breakout shelf) on expanding volume. --- ### MXL — MaxLinear, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MXL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-optical-networking, ai-chip-infra-memory, broadband-recovery, semi-fabless-recovery Next catalyst: 2026-04-28 Thesis: Binary resolved bullish: the 2026-04-23 Q1 beat plus a Q2 guide to $160-170M (vs $137M est) gapped MXL +34% and kicked off a ~+400% YTD re-rate, with AI-infra legs (Edgecore networking, Los Alamos HPC storage, 5G FWA) now materializing. Narrative MATURING into peak-retail coverage; a fresh entry at current levels is chasing a stretched name disciplined re-entry is a pullback to rising MA support. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the rising 20-EMA / late-April breakout gap; OR Q2 FY26 revenue below the $160M low-end guide; OR an adverse Silicon Motion appellate ruling crystallizing the ~$401M award against ~$190M cash. --- ### NBR — Nabors Industries Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NBR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: energy-tankers-oil-geopolitical, oil-services-drilling-leverage Thesis: Leveraged ~2x oil-beta proxy on the US–Iran/Hormuz war premium; +90% YTD to ~$100, top 3% of its 52-wk range. Q1 beat (2026-04-28) and $115–120 PT hikes already printed MATURING, mainstream, largely priced. Clean Feb–March entry (~$40–60) gone; fresh long at the high is peak-news chasing. Probe-only. Invalidation trigger: WTI weekly close below $80, OR a verified US–Iran ceasefire/de-escalation headline (war premium unwinds, NBR gives back 30%+ as oil-beta), OR a daily close below ~$85 (prior breakout shelf / ≈20-EMA). --- ### NET — Cloudflare, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NET/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Thesis: Cyber ACCEL but a snapback not a breakout (~16% below ATH), no catalyst to ~Aug repair leg; --- ### NEXA — Nexa Resources S.A. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NEXA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: commodity-materials, base-metals-zinc, copper-optionality, latam-miners Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: Q1 confirmed the turnaround Aripuanã record 13kt zinc, EBITDA +126% YoY, revenue $888M beat and the stock ran the whole leg to ~$15.75, near its 52-wk high. But the easy re-rate is spent: price now sits AT Citi's twice-raised $16 PT (still Neutral) with LME zinc at a cycle-high $3,588/t. Fresh entry here is a chase; wait for a 20-EMA pullback or a Buy upgrade. Invalidation trigger: LME zinc 3M closes below $3,200/t for 3 consecutive sessions, OR a weekly close back under the ~$11 April breakout shelf, OR Q2 Aripuanã zinc output regresses below the Q1 record of 13kt (ramp stall reopens the high-cost-laggard discount). --- ### NKE — Nike, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NKE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Broken-tape legacy turnaround pinned at 52-wk lows (~$43, -30% YTD); the May discretionary-rebound bounce failed into a lower low and recent sell-side flow is downgrades (WF $45, GS/JPM $52), not an upgrade cluster. No momentum leg a falling knife into the binary 2026-06-30 Q4 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below 52-wk low $41.35 confirms continuation lower. Turnaround thesis dead if the 2026-06-30 Q4 print shows revenue down YoY + further gross-margin contraction with Greater China still down ~20%. No long signal until a post-earnings higher-low reclaims the ~$52 20-week EMA. --- ### NKTR — Nektar Therapeutics URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NKTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, il-2-treg-conjugate, atopic-dermatitis, immuno-dermatology, alopecia-areata, post-binary-absorption, broken-momentum Next catalyst: 2026-05-08 Thesis: Feb-2026 REZOLVE-AD (atopic dermatitis) maintenance pop to $109 has fully round-tripped: NKTR is ~$57, ~38% below the $92 April secondary, -32.6% on the month with no near-term binary. The AD IL-2 Treg narrative ran ACCELERATING then turned into dead-tape bleed; the Dec-2025 alopecia Phase 2b stat-sig miss plus active securities suits are the overhang. No accelerating leg to buy until price reclaims structure on a fresh catalyst. Invalidation trigger: Avoid stance flips to buyable only on a weekly close back above ~$72 (the broken May shelf) paired with a fresh REZOLVE-AD or partnership catalyst. Loss of the $49.16 Dec-2025 reaction low confirms continued breakdown toward the rising 50-DMA (~$40). --- ### NSIT — Insight Enterprises, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NSIT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Thesis: AI-enterprise tag is derivative (VAR, hardware GP guided flat), +1% sales, death-cross intact while +35% above MAs above $103 PT value-trap geometry. --- ### NTAP — NetApp, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NTAP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Thesis: AI-storage sympathy-laggard to DELL, +22% gap to ATH then catalyst spent, FY27 guide only +8%, RSI high-70s cleaner leaders lead. --- ### NVCR — NovoCure Limited URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NVCR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ttfields-oncology-device, binary-catalyst-event, biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: TTFields single-asset name marked up into a binary: +24.5% over 3mo to ~$16, recovering toward the $19.25 high ahead of the Phase 3 TRIDENT GBM overall-survival readout (topline Q2 2026, ~June 30). coin-flip the edge is buying a confirmed positive gap, not front-running an open-label OS print. Invalidation trigger: TRIDENT Phase 3 misses its OS primary endpoint on the Q2 2026 (~June 30) readout, OR a weekly close back below ~$13 forfeits the recovery structure before the print. --- ### NWPX — NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NWPX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: water-infrastructure-capex, precast-concrete-rollup, industrial-materials Thesis: Water-infra + precast roll-up legacy pivot; +180% over 52wks on record Q1 backlog ($373M WTS) and an ~83% EPS beat (Apr 29). But the trade is MATURING June 5 saw a ~4% rejection off the new $123.49 high to close $117.76, price still ~19–34% above the $88–99 analyst-PT cluster, next catalyst (Q2) ~early Aug. Entry near highs is a chase; wait for a pullback to MA support. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$100 (analyst-PT cluster / est. rising 20-week EMA), OR Q2 2026 (est. early Aug) WTS backlog prints below the $373M Q1 record order momentum has rolled over. --- ### NXPI — NXP Semiconductors N.V. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NXPI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, ai-beyond-nvidia, analog-semi-cycle, automotive-industrial-semi Thesis: Analog-cycle "AI beyond Nvidia" re-rate is rolling over: Broadcom's 6/4 guide reset hyperscaler capex, peers MCHP/Power Integrations fell 6–8% on 6/5, and NXPI lost its rising 20-EMA (−7.9% on the week to ~$301, ~12% off the 5/27 $339.95 ATH). Distribution after a leveraged-ETF top; no binary until 7/28. Broken tape wait for a higher low. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the $290–291 trendline shelf (prior May breakout base) = analog-cycle leg broken, points at the spring base. AI-beyond-Nvidia angle already impaired by the 6/4 Broadcom capex reset + 6/5 MCHP/PI 6–8% breaks. Re-arm only on a higher low + $315–320 reclaim with peers (ON/MCHP) stabilizing. --- ### ODFL — Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ODFL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: trucking-freight-logistics, freight-cycle-recovery, ltl-pricing-power Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: Yield-led freight-recovery narrative maturing into all-time highs: May revenue/day +12.3% is fuel and pricing rather than volume (LTL tons still -3.8%). Amazon's June 10 full-LTL launch gapped ODFL -7.2%, and consensus targets (~$210) sit below ~$236 spot. Stretched compounder with a fresh structural overhang a poor fresh-entry setup. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 50-day (~$212); or LTL ex-fuel revenue/cwt growth rolling under +5% (Amazon compressing yield); or June/July tons-per-day re-accelerating below May's -3.8% the yield-led recovery breaking while volume is still negative. --- ### OGN — Organon & Co. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-special-sits, merger-arbitrage, specialty-pharma-womens-health Next catalyst: 2026-06-22 Thesis: Takeover binary already resolved: Sun Pharma signed a definitive $14.00/share all-cash merger (2026-04-26, $11.75B EV, 103% premium) and no Grünenthal topping bid emerged. OGN now trades as deal-pinned merger-arb ~6% spread to an early-2027 close, upside hard-capped at $14. Not a narrative-momentum setup; near-term tell is the 2026-06-22 HSR expiry. Invalidation trigger: Termination/amendment 8-K, or a DOJ/FTC second request at/after the 2026-06-22 HSR expiry OGN reprices toward the ~$6.90 unaffected level (~45% downside) against only ~6% spread upside to $14.00. --- ### OLPX — Olaplex Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OLPX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: merger-arbitrage-pending, cash-takeout-capped, beauty-brand-consolidation Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Turnaround binary is moot: OLPX agreed 2026-03-26 to an all-cash Henkel takeout at $2.06/share (~$1.4B). Stock pegged ~$2.04 (~1% to deal, capped). Advent already approved by written consent 2026-05-04; only antitrust clearances remain. No momentum leg merger-arb dead money for this book. Invalidation trigger: Merger termination announced OR daily close below ~$1.80 (deal-peg break signaling rising antitrust/close risk) → reverts toward pre-deal ~$1.33 broken-IPO chart. Until then upside is capped at the $2.06 cash price; no momentum leg, do not engage. --- ### OMER — Omeros Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OMER/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals, complement-inhibitor-franchise, biotech-launch-ramp Thesis: Both binary catalysts already fired Novo Nordisk zaltenibart deal (closed 2025-12-01, $240M cash) and FDA approval of YARTEMLEA for TA-TMA (2025-12-23). Now a one-quarter-old launch ramp (Q1 net sales $9.9M) at ~$10.74, -39% off the $17.65 high, consolidating not accelerating. Next binary is the EMA/CHMP opinion (mid-2026). Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $8.50 (post-approval consolidation floor); OR Q2 2026 YARTEMLEA net sales ≤ $9.9M (flat/down vs the Q1 base = ramp stalled); OR a negative CHMP/EMA opinion on the TA-TMA MAA. --- ### ONDS — Ondas Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ONDS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite Thesis: Drone-dominance policy basket leg cooling from ACCELERATING to MATURING (registry downgrade 2026-06-05). ONDS ran three legs on the Pentagon push + Trump equity-stake rumor (2026-05-28), $110M Q2 bookings (06-01) and a Navy ISR win (06-02), but a 2.11M-share resale registration (06-03) is feeding supply into the pop. Probe only. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the 2026-05-27 pre-surge base; OR an explicit denial/shelving of the Trump drone-maker equity-stake story. --- ### OPEN — Opendoor Technologies Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OPEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-consumer-disruptors Next catalyst: 2026-06-26 Thesis: Flow-plus-squeeze trade into a fixed date: Russell 3000 inclusion (effective after close 2026-06-26) stacked on a 13.3%-of-float short base and the CEO warrant short-trap, against a deteriorating iBuyer (Q1 rev -38% YoY, Q2 guide ~20% light). Telegraphed event trade the flow, fade the news after June 26. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $4.50 (pre-inclusion base, beneath the $4.88 CEO insider-buy shelf); OR a >8% fade in the 3 sessions after the 2026-06-26 inclusion date. --- ### ORKA — Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ORKA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, long-acting-biologics, psoriasis-il23 Next catalyst: 2026-05-12 Thesis: Phase 2a binary already fired positive (2026-04-27: 63.5% PASI 100, 83% PASI 90 — bimekizumab-class clearance from a twice-yearly IL-23). The accelerating leg is now spent: stock topped $91, sits ~$60 and bleeding into a June 2026 lock-up expiry plus the $700M follow-on overhang, with no data catalyst until H2 2026. Validated and cash-flush, but no momentum to buy at current price. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$52 (early-June post-raise base near the $700M follow-on clearing area) = Phase 2a pop fully unwound and June lock-up supply overwhelming demand; momentum thesis dead, value-trap setup until a fresh higher-low base forms. --- ### OSCR — Oscar Health, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OSCR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: managed-care-health-insurance Thesis: ACA pure-play doubled off its low, now above every analyst PT after Wells Fargo capitulation, on a stalled binary subsidy deal late recovery chase near 52w highs. --- ### OUST — Ouster, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OUST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: lidar-autonomy-perception, physical-ai-robotics, defense-counter-drone Next catalyst: 2026-06-26 Thesis: Lidar-for-Physical-AI + counter-drone narrative is intact, but the momentum leg snapped: after a parabolic run to a $49.39 high, OUST fell ~16% on 2026-06-05 toward ~$39 as a $100M ATM, CTO selling, and a Nasdaq semis flush hit. Froth unwind in progress entry quality is poor until a higher low forms above the rising ~$34 20-day SMA. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-day SMA (~$34) confirms the May breakout base failed and opens a high-$20s retest. Secondary: accelerating ATM share-count issuance, or a Q2 guide/print below the $49.5M low end (~Aug). --- ### OXM — Oxford Industries, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OXM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: premium-apparel-retail, consumer-discretionary-turnaround, value-trap-watchlist Next catalyst: 2026-06-10 Thesis: Beaten-down premium-apparel holdco (Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer) bounced ~44% off its $30.57 low to $44.12 straight into a binary Q1 print on 2026-06-10 (after close). No accelerating narrative mean-reversion rally now trading above the $39.75 consensus PT, with the $2.80 dividend uncovered by FY26 adj-EPS guide ($2.10–$2.70). DORMANT into the print. Invalidation trigger: No pre-print entry Q1 reports 2026-06-10 (3 trading days out, binary). Reversal thesis voided if Tommy Bahama DTC comp stays negative or FY26 adj-EPS guide is cut below $2.10; any post-print pop that fails to hold the 200-day MA (mid-$40s zone) on a weekly close = no engagement. --- ### PANW — Palo Alto Networks, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PANW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software Thesis: Cyber megacap, NGS ARR +60%, but sold-the-news -5.9% off the $300 ATH, ~20 PT raises watch the $300 — reclaim. --- ### PAYO — Payoneer Global Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PAYO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: digital-assets-fintech-payments, cross-border-payments, fintech-ma-special-situations Next catalyst: 2026-06-27 Thesis: Pure M&A special situation: Nuvei is reportedly in advanced talks (Reuters, June 9) to buy Payoneer for ~$2.7B equity value (~$8/sh implied), and the tape already gapped +24% on the leak. At ~$6.75 the remaining merger-arb spread pays only if a definitive deal is signed in the coming weeks; the easy move is gone. Invalidation trigger: A "Nuvei walks away / talks terminated" headline, or a daily close back below ~$5.50 — that fills the June 9 acquisition gap either prices out the take-out and resets the stock toward its standalone ~$5 base. --- ### PAYS — Paysign, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PAYS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: patient-affordability-pharma, plasma-donor-services, specialty-payments-microcap, medicare-part-d-headwind Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Q1 (2026-05-12) resolved the binary bullish revenue +50.8% YoY, EPS $0.09 beat $0.07, Patient Affordability +168%, Part-D-cap fear disproven, FY26 guide $106.5–110.5M. But the beat got sold (+3% reaction) and price sits ~23% below the $8.88 high with insiders distributing. Invalidation trigger: Constructive read requires a daily close reclaiming the ~$7.50 post-print shelf on >1.5x ADV plus a confirmed higher low; a daily close below the $6.20–$6.50 base confirms distribution and opens the $5.00–$5.50 zone. --- ### PBI — Pitney Bowes Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PBI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, legacy-turnaround-pivot, capital-return-buyback Thesis: Activist turnaround (Hestia's Wolf as CEO) has played out ~3x off the $8.95 low, pinned near the 52-wk high $17.09 (~$16.72). It's a buyback/cost-cut EPS re-rate with revenue still -3% YoY; Citizens ratchets its PT to $19 — but the 4-analyst consensus stays Hold ~$15. MATURING, not accelerating chasing the high here is the trap. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $14.50 (loss of the post-Q1 base); or FY26 adj-EPS guide cut below $1.50; or quarterly buyback pace falling below ~$50M (turnaround fuel exhausting). --- ### PCT — PureCycle Technologies, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PCT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: small-cap-ai-momentum Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Commercial-ramp inflection is real (Q1 record 8.4M-lb output, 5th straight sequential revenue quarter) but tiny against a ~$2.3B cap (~140x sales). The chart printed a parabolic blowoff near $17 late-May, then broke -10% to $12.52 on June 5 into a dilutive warrant amendment effective June 17. Post-blowoff rollover structure broken (50<200DMA); wait for a base, don't chase. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$10 (loses the May breakout shelf and the $11.50 warrant strike); or a dilutive equity/convert raise announced below market; or quarterly production stalling under the ~8–9M-lb pace set in Q1. --- ### PD — PagerDuty, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Thesis: Margin/buyback/new-CEO rerate, not a narrative leg: Q1 FY27 (2026-05-28) revenue +1% YoY, ARR flat $496M, NRR 97% (from 104%). +14.7% pop on 25% op margin, $100M buyback, DiLullo named CEO. ~$9.25, below 200-DMA, at RBC fair-value PT $9 value-trap tape, no velocity. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$8.00 (2026-05-28 earnings gap base) fades the pop; or Q2 print (~late Aug) with NRR still <100% and revenue <+3% YoY confirms dead top line and no momentum thesis. --- ### PENG — Penguin Solutions, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PENG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: small-cap-ai-momentum, ai-chip-infra-memory, agentic-ai-infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-07-07 Thesis: Agentic-AI demand drove an FY26 guide raise (~6%→12% net-sales growth), reaffirmed June 1 at the high end, plus Rosenblatt/Stifel PT raises to $65–66 a real narrative inflection that ran shares from $16 to an ATH $73.24 (June 2). Now a blow-off reversing hard (-15.88% June 7, ~$59.86) into the July 7 Q3 print and July 8 CFO exit. Narrative intact; entry only on a base or post-print confirmation, not the falling knife. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$48 (pre-spike breakout shelf / rising-MA zone), or a July 7 Q3 print at/below the reaffirmed +12% net-sales growth guide with no FY26 raise either ends the momentum thesis. --- ### PGNY — Progyny, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PGNY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Thesis: Fertility-benefits re-rate now MATURING (mis-themed as biotech) analyst cluster done, avg PT on spot, 8-week catalyst vacuum to the 7/30 print pullback-to-$24, not a chase. --- ### PI — Impinj, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rfid-edge-iot, supply-chain-digitization, iot-edge Thesis: Post-correction RAIN RFID recovery is fundamentally intact (record Q1 endpoint-IC bookings; Q2 guided +~40% QoQ to $103-106M, EPS $0.14→$0.77-0.82) but the PRICE thesis just broke: PI round-tripped the entire April earnings gap, closing $120.93 on 2026-06-05 (-11.2%) and losing the $128 gap-fill on institutional distribution. Story fine, tape rejected it into a ~2026-07-29 binary print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $120 (2026-06-05 low / pre-earnings base) extends the gap round-trip toward ~$112; OR Q2 revenue prints below the $103M guide floor / Systems revenue declines YoY again at the ~2026-07-29 report record bookings failing to convert to shipments. --- ### PII — Polaris Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PII/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, powersports-consumer-discretionary, margin-recovery-turnaround Thesis: Powersports turnaround leg ($52→$75.25 peak) has played out and is rolling over PII hit a fresh 52-wk high then fell to $66.06 (−4% on 2026-06-05), now below consensus PT $68. MATURING, special-sit catalyst spent (Indian sale closed 2026-02-02), no fresh catalyst until the 2026-07-28 Q2 print ~7wks out. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 50-DMA / breakout base (~$58), OR the 2026-07-28 Q2 print cuts FY26 adj-EPS guide below the $1.60 floor, OR Q2 ORV retail turns negative YoY (was +3% in Q1 2026). --- ### PLAY — Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PLAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: restaurants-dining, consumer-turnaround, short-squeeze Next catalyst: 2026-06-15 Thesis: Beaten-down arcade-restaurant turnaround: "back-to-basics" has comps climbing from ~-9% toward flat, the Street models the first positive revenue quarter (+1.7% YoY) on the 2026-06-15 AMC print, and a short book at >8 days-to-cover is fueling a +28% pre-earnings squeeze. The print is the binary. Invalidation trigger: Q1 comps still materially negative (worse than ~-3%) or revenue below +1.7% YoY consensus on the 2026-06-15 AMC report; or a post-print daily close back under the ~$10.50–11 pre-breakout shelf that broke mid-May. --- ### PLPC — Preformed Line Products Company URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PLPC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: grid-power-transmission Thesis: Grid MATURING; ATH $391 reversed to $363 (failed breakout/bull-trap) on a Q1 rev miss, P/E ~52, a fund exited into the surge. WATCH for a $355 shelf hold or the ~7/28 Q2 print. --- ### PLSE — Pulse Biosciences, Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PLSE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Thesis: Biotech ACCEL (first coverage Canaccord $32 + insider ATM buying) but the de-risking data is 2027, no 30-day binary, ~$18M/qtr burn momentum probe, not a fat pitch. --- ### PLUG — Plug Power, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PLUG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: hydrogen-economy, industrial-power-ai Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: Late-stage hydrogen-comeback + margin-turnaround squeeze already ran +475% off the $0.69 low to ~$3.57; Q1 beat printed 2026-05-11 and the tape is rolling near the $3.75 Susquehanna PT. Only forward edge is the binary 2026-06-30 Stream Data Centers $142M asset-sale close a catalyst, not a clean trend entry on a serial diluter that burned $535.8M in 2025. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $3.12 Q1-earnings gap (2026-05-11 pre-print close) breaks the squeeze leg; or the Stream Data Centers $142M Project Gateway sale fails to close by 2026-06-30, swinging focus back to cash burn / going-concern. --- ### PNRG — PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PNRG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: low-float-squeeze, permian-oil-gas, small-cap-energy, oil-geopolitical-bid Thesis: Ultra-low-float Permian oil & gas squeeze (~760K float) catching a geopolitical crude bid: WTI ran to $109 — then settled ~$90 on the Iran war while PNRG bounced +11.5% to $183.60 (week of 2026-06-05) on rising volume (~64K avg). Still ~18% below the 50-day, month -20%, and Waha gas stays negative (-$1.81/MMBtu) until ~Oct takeaway relief an oversold bounce, not yet a confirmed re-squeeze. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below ~$164 (the early-June bounce low) on sub-30k volume, or WTI losing $80, voids the oil-bid bounce and resumes the broken sub-50-day downtrend. No long thesis until a 50-day reclaim (~$205) on a >50k-share volume thrust. --- ### PRCH — Porch Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PRCH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: insurtech-reciprocal-pivot, homeowners-insurance-software, m-and-a-activism-special-sits Thesis: Reciprocal-pivot fundamentals intact (Q1 PSI rev +29% to $109.4M, FY26 guide raised to $495–507M), but the momentum leg broke: shares round-tripped $10.81→$9.26 weekly close (2026-06-05), severing the $9.70 shelf. No hard catalyst until the ~late-July Q2 print; hurricane season is an overhang. Rolling over not a momentum buy here. Invalidation trigger: FY26 revenue guide cut below the $495M floor at the Q2 print (est. ~2026-07-30); OR a daily close below the $8.50 post-earnings gap completing a full round-trip of the April breakout; OR a named-storm TX/FL landfall that materially dents the reciprocal's $164.6M statutory surplus. --- ### PSNL — Personalis, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PSNL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: mrd-liquid-biopsy, precision-oncology-diagnostics, biotech-precision-therapeutics Thesis: MRD/liquid-biopsy narrative still ACCELERATING on 4 Medicare wins + best-in-class ASCO data, but the catalysts already fired and price just FAILED a breakout 2026-06-05 printed a fresh 52w high $12.53, then reversed to close $10.75 (-11%). A fresh entry chases a spent parabola with no hard binary until the Q2 print (~early Aug). Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $8.00 (gives back >50% of the May breakout, loses the rising 20-EMA); or FY2026 revenue guide cut below $78M; or Q2 print shows biopharma-MRD revenue tracking under the $20-21M FY target. --- ### PTEN — Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PTEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: oilfield-services-drilling, natural-gas-lng-export, ai-data-center-power-demand, energy-cyclical-recovery Thesis: Gas rig-reactivation thesis firming operationally: management guided exit-Q2 at 92-95 rigs (avg ~90) toward 100+ by year-end, and EIA lifted 2026 Henry Hub to ~$4.02 (+16% vs 2025). But it's a slow-burn cyclical stock ~$11.74 (06-05) pulled back from the $13.08 high even as a 4th PT raise (Goldman Buy $13, 06-04) landed. Coincident with sell-side, not ahead. MATURING; probe only, and only on a $13.08 weekly-close breakout. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $10.50 (loses recovery base / ~50-day MA); reactivation thesis stalled. --- ### PVH — PVH Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PVH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: mid-tier-apparel-destock, legacy-apparel-turnaround, consumer-discretionary-tariff Next catalyst: 2026-04-24 Thesis: Q1 FY26 print (2026-06-04) resolved the binary bearish: PVH −20%+ as the FY EPS guide held only on a one-time ~$100M tariff refund and the 2026 buyback was cut to ≥$300M. A broken legacy-apparel name round-tripped to its 2024 $70 support falling knife, no base; avoid fresh longs until structure rebuilds above the breakdown shelf. Invalidation trigger: Bear continuation confirmed on a daily/weekly close below $70 (2024 guide-cut low) on volume, absent a market-wide selloff. The avoid-long stance only flips on a multi-week base that reclaims the ~$85 pre-print shelf on volume with Q2 destock easing. --- ### PYPL — PayPal Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PYPL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: digital-assets-fintech-payments Thesis: Narrative still broken post-2026-05-05 Q1 (Q2 transaction-margin dollars guided to DECLINE); price stuck below 50/200-day in a death-cross. The 2026-05-29 "beaten-down bounceback" media chatter is bottom-fishing, not a momentum leg. No-touch value trap for a momentum book. Invalidation trigger: Avoid-thesis flips only on a weekly close above $47 resistance AND reclaim of the 50-day MA (~$46) with a higher-low; absent that, every bounce is a value-trap fade. Break of $39 post-print low confirms further downside. --- ### QDEL — QuidelOrtho Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QDEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: Broken legacy-diagnostics downtrend Q1 -10.5% miss + guide cut, near 52w low, below all MAs; value trap, track for a base above $9.92. --- ### QRVO — Qorvo, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QRVO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Thesis: Merger-arb instrument (SWKS $32.50 + 0.96sh), upside capped at deal value, downside binary on a SAMR break the 52w-high/RSI signals are SWKS artifacts, outside the momentum edge. Invalidation trigger: revisit only on a deal-break headline (China SAMR rejection / SWKS walk) that re-rates QRVO to a fresh standalone ~$78 --- ### QUIK — QuickLogic Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QUIK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, custom-silicon-efpga, defense-silicon Next catalyst: 2026-06-29 Thesis: eFPGA/defense IP-royalty narrative accelerating ($168M funnel, four Intel 18A wins, RadPro rad-hard silicon); Russell 2000/3000 inclusion confirmed 2026-06-02, effective 2026-06-29 is the binary passive-bid catalyst but it's a low-float microcap squeeze consolidating under 52-wk highs after a Q1 revenue miss. Probe only. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $18 (loses post-earnings recovery base), OR fails to hold above ~$19 the week after 2026-06-29 Russell inclusion (sell-the-news), OR Q2-2026 revenue below the ~$5.0M sequential baseline (reported ~August). --- ### QURE — uniQure N.V. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QURE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, gene-therapy, fda-regulatory-catalyst Next catalyst: 2026-06-18 Thesis: FDA-regime-change relief rally into binary catalysts: Makary's 2026-05-12 ouster plus the acting commissioner's 2026-06-04 pledge against political interference in rare-disease reviews revived hope of an accelerated path for AMT-130 (Huntington's), officially killed by the FDA in March. Stock ~3x off the March low, +47% in 30d, into the 2026-06-18 AMT-260 epilepsy readout peak sentiment into an overnight binary. Probe-only. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below $22 (pre-Makary shelf); OR AMT-260 first-cohort (6 patients) 2026-06-18/19 shows seizure reduction far below the n=1 92% signal or a serious adverse event; OR Q2 Type B FDA minutes confirm a full randomized sham-controlled Phase III with no accelerated path. --- ### RAMP — LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RAMP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: merger-arbitrage, adtech-data-collaboration, acquisition-pending Thesis: Pending all-cash takeout, not a momentum name: Publicis $38.50/share cash deal (signed 2026-05-16) pins RAMP at $37.42 (June 5), a ~2.9% arb spread to a year-end-2026 close. Upside capped at the contract price; deal-break downside ~-21% toward the ~$29.66 pre-deal level. No narrative leg dead money for momentum. Invalidation trigger: Upside is hard-capped at the $38.50 cash price any approach to it confirms no momentum trade exists. A daily close below ~$35 signals rising deal-break risk and opens a downside gap toward the ~$29.66 pre-deal base; treat as no-trade while it pins the ~$36–$38.50 arb band. --- ### RAPP — Rapport Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RAPP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-04-21 Thesis: AAN follow-up (2026-04-21) confirmed RAP-219 durability 90% median seizure reduction wks 9-12, 22-day half-life validating the platform, but the stock sold the news ~9% and now sits in a ~5-month data gap until bipolar-mania Phase 2 topline (Q4 2026). Narrative validated; momentum cooled; no near-term binary to ride. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$32 (post-AAN consolidation floor near the rising 20-EMA); any 8-K disclosing a RAP-219 clinical hold or new SAE (platform correlation ≈1 across all four indications); or Phase 3 FOS initiation slipping past Q2 2026. --- ### RDW — Redwire Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RDW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite Thesis: SpaceX-IPO/drone retail mania that ripped RDW ~78% in a week (late May) is deflating: S&P's 2026-06-05 rejection of a SpaceX index killed the catalyst and the space complex is bleeding 20%+ days. Q1 missed and ~$350M dilution hit ~5/6 the run was pure sentiment. Sell-side downgrading post-run (Jefferies Hold, PT $24, 6/1). SATURATED, rolling over. Watch for a higher low, not a fresh entry. Invalidation trigger: Space complex keeps making lower lows after the 2026-06-05 S&P SpaceX-index rejection; daily closes below the late-May breakout shelf with no replacement catalyst keep it un-tradeable. Any long re-entry invalidates on a daily close back below the breakout base or failure to hold a higher low. --- ### RIVN — Rivian Automotive, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RIVN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: autonomous-driving-ev Next catalyst: 2026-07-02 Thesis: Structurally broken active death cross + open NHTSA safety probe + no theme membership, -31% YTD; R2 launch a hope-trade into a rolled-over chart. Invalidation trigger: revisit on death-cross cure (50>200 DMA) + weekly close above the 200-DMA + confirmed R2 unit ramp --- ### RLMD — Relmada Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RLMD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, cns-depression, binary-readout-microcap Next catalyst: 2026-05-15 Thesis: Post-Phase-3-failure CNS microcap in a dead readout zone; the 2026-05-28 vote lifting authorized shares 150M→200M arms an ATM with no dated Sepranolone or RELIGHT topline to offset it. The 2026-06-03 pre-market pop was a low-float blip on no named catalyst. Stand aside until a dated readout prints. Invalidation trigger: An 8-K confirming an ATM/secondary takedown or Q1 cash runway under 12 months; a Sepranolone Phase 2b Tourette YGTSS primary-endpoint miss; or a weekly close below the post-2022 base low on >2x average volume. --- ### RLYB — Rallybio Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RLYB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, biotech-precision-therapeutics, oncology-cdk-adc Thesis: Reverse-merger special situation, not a momentum trade. The 2026-06-01 Avenzo oncology merger + $215M PIPE pop already fired and has faded back toward the mid-$14s by 2026-06-07. Legacy holders keep a cash distribution + CVR + a ~2.8% stub; go-forward oncology value accrues to Avenzo/PIPE holders (97.2%, AVZO ticker, closes Q4 2026). No accelerating narrative leg for a fresh buyer. Invalidation trigger: Stand-aside read only breaks if the merger TERMINATES (reverts to a pure cash shell) or RLYB trades at a clear discount to net-cash distribution value (~$37.5M net, low-$14s/share), opening a clean discount-to-cash arb. Absent that, dead money into the Q4 2026 close; the ~$17–18 pop on 2026-06-01 was the entire event. --- ### RMAX — Re/Max Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RMAX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, real-estate-brokerage-consolidation Thesis: Merger-arb shell, not a momentum name. REAX's near-all-stock takeover (5.152 REAX/share, $60-80M cash cap) is worth ~$8.7 in stock at REAX $1.68; RMAX trades ~$9.05, near parity. Thin spread, ~35% downside on a break, no narrative leg stand aside. Invalidation trigger: Deal termination or either shareholder vote failing → RMAX reverts toward pre-deal ~$6 / 52wk low $5.46 (−35%). Also REAX weekly close below ~$1.40 drags the blended stock leg under ~$8.30; RMAX follows ~5:1 on the stock portion. Spread thesis dead either way. --- ### RPAY — Repay Holdings Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RPAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, payments-consolidation Next catalyst: 2026-06-10 Thesis: Two-activist takeout arb resolved against longs: the board rejected Forager's $4.80 bid (5/4, "significantly undervalues") and closed the $372M debt-funded KUBRA deal (6/1), the defensive move Veradace feared. Stock round-tripped to ~$3.47. What's left is a levered, sub-scale bill-pay name with a ~21% activist block and a 6/10 withhold-vote meeting a deflating special situation. Invalidation trigger: Forager or Veradace withdraws or converts its Schedule 13D to passive 13G, or the 2026-06-10 meeting re-seats the full board with activists standing down (removes sale optionality); alternatively two consecutive closes below the $3.20 pre-event floor confirm a full fundamental round-trip. --- ### RUM — Rumble Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RUM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-neocloud-gpu, ai-cloud-infrastructure, crypto-adjacent-equities Next catalyst: 2026-06-15 Thesis: Neocloud pivot accelerating and now validated by name: the record $270M Blackwell B300 commitment was disclosed 2026-06-04 as a Together AI deal, with Northern Data's close and a hyperscaler-compete cloud launch both due ~mid-June. But the deal pop fully round-tripped ($10.54 high → ~$7.58), losing the $8.00 base. Story real, tape broken into a binary. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$7.00 (loses the pre-deal base; the $270M-deal premium has already round-tripped from the $10.54 high); OR Northern Data close slips past 2026-06-30; OR the mid-June AI-cloud launch slips with no anchor customer named beyond Together AI. --- ### RXO — RXO, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RXO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: freight-trucking-logistics Next catalyst: 2026-06-23 Thesis: Fresh freight ACCELERATING but +75% vertical above EVERY analyst PT, RSI 76 blowoff, KNX is the cleaner cluster structure. --- ### RZLT — Rezolute, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RZLT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-06-13 Thesis: Biotech ACCELERATING leader: upLIFT 6/8 interim + 4-house upgrade cluster, 5 rules incl vol 1.53x binary name, LOW event-risk probe. --- ### S — SentinelOne, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/S/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software, ai-cybersecurity-endpoint Thesis: SentinelOne busted post Q1 FY2027 stock cratered 2026-05-28 on an affirm-not-raise guide ($1.195-1.205B rev, midpoint below $1.206B est) plus 8% layoffs/$25M charge; sell-side splintered $15-$24. ~10 sessions of dead tape since, no catalyst until ~late-Aug Q2. Cyber leadership sits with CRWD; broken momentum, no long until it re-bases. Invalidation trigger: No long until a weekly close reclaims the pre-earnings gap ~$18 with a higher low holding above ~$13. A contrarian probe stops on a daily close below the post-earnings low ~$13; below $13 the name becomes a no-touch. --- ### SABR — Sabre Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SABR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: travel-tech-deleveraging, ai-airline-retailing, legacy-gds-pivot, high-short-interest-squeeze, agentic-travel-retailing Thesis: Deleveraging-turnaround re-rate off the $0.81 low, now validated by Constellation Software's ~12.7% stake + board seat, with SabreMosaic AI airline-retailing as optionality. But momentum just rolled: a −10% drop on 6/05 to $1.66 dumped price onto the 50-day MA (~$1.65), testing the base with no catalyst for ~2 months. Probe-tier, structure on the line. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the 50-day MA (~$1.65) breaks the stacked-MA base off $0.81; confirmed loss of $1.40 opens the 200-day (~$1.23). Or the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print shows Adjusted EBITDA margin contraction or an FY2026 guidance cut. --- ### SAIL — SailPoint, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SAIL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software Next catalyst: 2026-06-09 Thesis: Agentic-identity thesis is real and ACCELERATING, but Q1 FY27 prints 6/9 pre-market = hard binary inside 3 trading days with RSI ~74 sitting on the consensus PT defer the timing, not the story. Invalidation trigger: revisit after the 2026-06-09 pre-market Q1 FY27 print clears (ARR >25% YoY, no guide cut) + a post-print higher-low base forms --- ### SANM — Sanmina Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SANM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, ai-datacenter-infrastructure, electronics-manufacturing-services Thesis: Legacy single-digit-multiple EMS re-rating into AMD's AI-server manufacturing arm via the ZT Systems deal; FQ2 detonated the frame (rev $4.01B vs $3.29B, +31.8% EPS beat) and the FY27 $16B target doubles the book. Narrative intact but the post-earnings leg is spent next binary is the ~late-July FQ3 print testing pull-forward vs run-rate. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the post-earnings breakout shelf (~$160) / loss of the rising 20-EMA, or FQ3 (late-July) revenue under the $3.2B guide floor signals the AMD/ZT demand was a one-quarter pull-forward, not a new run-rate. --- ### SATL — Satellogic Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SATL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite Thesis: Earth-observation/defense-ISR pure-play riding SpaceX-IPO space mania; +~496% YTD, parabolic, 15.6% short interest. But the $18M defense contract (2026-05-26) drew a -19.2% sell-the-news drop and price is rolling off June highs ($8.68→$7.12) as sell-side caught up late-stage squeeze in a maturing theme, not a clean entry. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $6.50 (June consolidation floor / $18M-contract sell-the-news shelf); loss of the $4.97 50-day-range low ends the momentum leg. SpaceX IPO pricing without SATL reclaiming $8 confirms a "weak name into obscurity." --- ### SENS — Senseonics Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SENS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-06-08 Thesis: Implantable-CGM ADA-de-risked but fell INTO its catalyst (below 50-day, supply>demand), micro-cap value-trap DXCM is the cluster pick. --- ### SEPN — Septerna, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SEPN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-06-13 Thesis: Oral-GPCR platform story accelerating: Novo Nordisk obesity deal funds 5 targets, SEP-631 printed positive CSU Phase 1, and SEP-479 hits the ENDO 2026 stage this week. But it's a 3x into all-time highs (~$32) and the ENDO slot is telegraphed preclinical data real binaries (Phase 1 readouts) don't land until late 2026/2027. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the late-May breakout base / rising 20-EMA (~$28); or SEP-479 Phase 1 showing the Grade-3 bilirubin hepatotox that killed predecessor SEP-786; or any termination/scope-cut in the Novo Nordisk collaboration. --- ### SG — Sweetgreen, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-discretionary-rebound, fast-casual-turnaround, rate-relief-cyclicals Thesis: May's +45% melt-up (Point72 6.2% stake ~05-15, JPM Overweight $13 on 05-22) has round-tripped: SG faded ~$9.63→$7.42 (06-05), back at consensus fair value (~$7.8 avg PT). Faded momentum, no near-term catalyst watch-only. Invalidation trigger: Q2 comps on 2026-08-06 worse than the guided ~−4% (vs Q1's −12.8%), or a weekly close below ~$6 toward the $4.49 52-week low either kills the turnaround thesis. Conversely, a weekly close back above ~$9.50 on volume would re-arm the momentum case. --- ### SGMT — Sagimet Biosciences Inc. Series A URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SGMT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, dermatology-acne, mash-metabolic Thesis: April narrative-momentum breakout fully round-tripped: denifanstat's retail spike faded and SGMT sits at $6.76 (2026-06-05), barely above its $6.00 April offering price after the float nearly doubled to 61.75M shares. Dermatology pivot + China acne NDA is the next leg, but no dated catalyst inside 30 days and theme decelerated ACCELERATING→SATURATED. Not a momentum buy here. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $6.00 (the April Series A offering price) the dilution floor breaks, the round-trip becomes a fresh downtrend, and no momentum thesis remains. Conversely, reclaiming/holding the published invalidation level–$8.50 on volume re-fires the long. --- ### SHOO — Steven Madden, Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SHOO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-cyclical-rotation, tariff-supply-chain-reshoring Thesis: Q1 +18% rev is Kurt Geiger M&A; organic DTC only +8%, adjusted EPS fell to $0.45 from $0.60. Mature legacy pivot; next real binary is the ~Aug Q2 print, 60+ days out. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (~$40) or loss of the $39 shelf; or the ~Aug 2026 Q2 print cutting the $2.00–$2.10 adjusted-EPS guide; or organic ex-Kurt-Geiger DTC turning negative. --- ### SIBN — SI-BONE, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SIBN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics, pelvic-trauma-fixation, spine-ortho-medtech Next catalyst: 2026-06-16 Thesis: Real new growth leg Smith+Nephew pelvic-trauma distribution plus a raised FY guide ($230–233M) on a profit-inflecting SI-fusion base but the tape is broken: ~$15.50 sits below the 200-day, 50<200, ~29% off highs. Cheap medtech on a rolled-over chart is a value trap until it reclaims the 200-day (~$17–18). No momentum entry yet; Q2 (~early Aug) is the real test. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $14 toward the $11.48 52-week low confirms the downtrend; or Q2 (~early Aug) revenue growth back below ~11% YoY, signaling the Smith+Nephew trauma ramp isn't landing. --- ### SIDU — Sidus Space, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SIDU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite Thesis: SpaceX-IPO proxy mania drove SIDU vertical into late May; mgmt cashed the hype with a $100M direct offering at $5.08 (2026-05-28) textbook distribution top-tick. Retail-squeeze name on $359K quarterly revenue. No fresh-entry edge; dilution overhang + peak sentiment. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $5.08 (2026-05-28) offering price = direct-offering buyers underwater and distribution confirmed; equally, SpaceX-IPO proxy bid fading or the space-satellite theme flipping SATURATED ends any long. --- ### SITM — SiTime Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SITM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-datacenter-infra, precision-timing-mems, optical-interconnect, ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: MEMS precision-timing picks-and-shovels: Q1 2026 (~2026-05-07) confirmed the AI-datacenter re-rate datacenter segment +158% YoY to ~67% of revenue, FY guide raised to ≥80%, EPS beat 23%. Narrative accelerated, but the stock now sits near $700, above the ~$600–625 street PT cluster with clustered C-suite selling a fresh chase into a six-week catalyst gap is a probe at best. Invalidation trigger: Q2 2026 revenue (reported ~late July) below the $140M guide floor, or a sequential decline in datacenter/CED revenue, or a weekly close back under the ~$560 post-Q1 breakout shelf any signals the datacenter-timing re-rate is fully priced. --- ### SLS — SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, aml-oncology, binary-catalyst-biotech Thesis: Pre-binary retail run-up: SLS ran ~5x off the $1.39 low into an imminent, event-driven Phase 3 REGAL overall-survival readout (78/80 death events as of May 11, 2026). A coin-flip near 52-week highs ($8.23) with parabolic RSI lottery gamma at peak premium. Track for a post-data base; the binary itself sits outside the momentum edge. Invalidation trigger: REGAL final OS analysis misses statistical significance (gap risk -50%+); or a daily close below the early-June breakout shelf (~$6.50) confirms the pre-binary run-up is unwinding. --- ### SMCI — Super Micro Computer, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SMCI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-enterprise-systems-data-software Thesis: AI-server faded leg into retail saturation (leveraged ETF) + risk-off; Mizuho PT $44 — below spot, scandal-beta stand aside until a $50 — reclaim. --- ### SMMT — Summit Therapeutics Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SMMT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, pd1-vegf-bispecific, single-asset-binary-biotech Next catalyst: 2026-05-14 Thesis: Single-asset ivonescimab story where the leg that powered the ASCO run has resolved mixed: the global HARMONi-3 squamous PFS interim missed (Apr 30, −25%), then positive China-only HARMONi-6 OS (HR 0.66) sold the news (Jun 1, −6%). Catalyst-spent and drifting near $18 support with no company event for ~5 months; FDA PDUFA Nov 14 and HARMONi-3 final PFS (H2 2026) are the next binaries. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $17 (post-HARMONi-3-miss / 2025 low zone) confirms breakdown; or HARMONi-3 squamous final PFS (H2 2026) misses significance; or an S-3/ATM secondary against the ~$599M cash, ~$490M/yr burn. --- ### SNAP — Snap Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNAP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-consumer-disruptors Thesis: Restructuring + AR-pivot, not momentum. The Perplexity AI alliance was killed alongside the Q1 print (2026-05-07, -10.5% gap); CFO exit + 16% layoffs frame a cost-out turnaround; sell-side PTs washed to $6-8. The Illumix AR buy (2026-06-04) is a pivot attempt, not an accelerating narrative. Off-playbook. Invalidation trigger: Flips to actionable only on a weekly close above ~$8 (pre-Q1 shelf / top of PT cluster) with DAU re-acceleration AND analyst PTs compressing upward through $10. A break of the post-earnings low on rising volume confirms the value-trap and disqualifies a long. --- ### SNDK — Sandisk Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNDK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: AI-memory ACCELERATING but correlated dup of MU; peak retail-search, PT dispersion $1750-3250, viral DRAM ETF -20% distribution crack memory leg saturating. --- ### SNDR — Schneider National, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNDR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: freight-trucking-logistics Thesis: Early-cycle freight-rate recovery has re-rated SNDR from ~$20 to 52-week highs near $39, but the move front-runs an earnings inflection Q1 ($0.12 adj EPS, ops income -21% YoY) hasn't delivered. Sell-side PTs ($36–$39) now sit on the price and Amazon's 2026-06-10 LTL expansion adds a secular freight-competition overhang. Theme is real but the name is stretched ~26% over the 50-day; the edge is a pullback to MA support, not a chase at highs. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 50-day (~$31) / May breakout base; OR Q2 print (~late July) cuts the $0.70–$1.00 FY26 EPS guide; OR DAT dry-van spot rates fade back below ~+10% YoY. --- ### SPIR — Spire Global, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SPIR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: space-satellite Thesis: Space-satellite theme ACCELERATING into the SpaceX-IPO proxy frenzy (UFO ETF crossed $1B AUM 2026-05-28); SPIR rides cluster beta on a clean Q1 beat + raised FY26 guide (05-13) and a rising PT ladder (Stifel $24, 06-04). But it's the smallest, still-unprofitable, laggard expression flow-driven, not alpha. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close back below the May post-earnings breakout shelf, OR FY26 sales guide cut below the affirmed $75M floor, OR UFO/space-ETF inflows reversing as the SpaceX IPO catalyst passes without a confirmed date. --- ### STAA — STAAR Surgical Company URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STAA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ophthalmic-medtech, ma-special-situation, china-consumer-recovery, activist-value-unlock Next catalyst: 2026-06-18 Thesis: Post-Alcon-break special situation, not a momentum leg: shareholders killed the $30.75 takeout (Jan 6 2026), Broadwood (~31%) holds three board seats pushing a standalone ~$50 path. China EVO+ recovery is real (Q1 +119.6% YoY, EPS $0.29 vs $0.08e) but the tape stalled near $30 with consensus PT (~$27.81) below spot. June 18 standstill expiry + annual meeting is an event-binary, not an accelerating narrative. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$26 (rising 200-day / post-Q1 consolidation floor); OR June 18 annual meeting passes with no renewed sale-process/strategic-review and $28 support breaks (activist/M&A premium gone); OR Q2 (~early Aug) China revenue falls sequentially with trade-receivables share rising. --- ### STM — STMicroelectronics N.V. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Next catalyst: 2026-04-24 Thesis: Analog-components ACCEL (DC target doubled to ~$1B) but a late +2.5x continuation sitting at consensus PT SMTC is the cleaner cluster expression. --- ### STRO — Sutro Biopharma, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STRO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics, adc-oncology, clinical-binary-catalyst Thesis: Equity re-minted around STRO-004, a DAR-8 Tissue Factor ADC, after lead luvelta was shelved. Analyst cluster (Wedbush $60, Barclays OW $56) frames a mid-2026 Phase 1 readout, but the stock has rolled over from ~$41 to ~$26 momentum fading into an undated binary, not accelerating into it. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$22 (20-week EMA) on rising volume, or STRO-004 mid-2026 Phase 1 initial data showing DLTs / no objective responses. Secondary tells: a fresh pre-catalyst dilutive raise, or the luvelta out-licensing process collapsing. --- ### STUB — StubHub Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STUB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: live-events-ticketing, post-ipo-turnaround, prediction-markets-sports-betting Thesis: Busted-IPO turnaround: down from the $23.50 Sept-2025 IPO to a $5.74 low, now doubled off lows on a Q1 profitability inflection (first GAAP profit, FCF ~+90%, deleveraging to 4.0x). At ~$11.46 it has pushed above the $8.50–11 analyst PT cluster with no catalyst until the ~Aug 3 Q2 print; the recovery is real but the high-conviction entry was the post-Q1 pop, not here. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$9 (loses the post-Q1 recovery base); or Q2 (~Aug 3) GMS tracking below the $9.9–10.1B FY guide / Adj EBITDA cut from $400–420M; or net leverage back above ~4.5x. --- ### STX — Seagate Technology Holdings PLC URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/STX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-chip-infra-memory, hdd-nearline, memory-storage-supercycle Next catalyst: 2026-06-25 Thesis: AI memory/storage supercycle has gone parabolic Seagate sell-side targets ran from ~$605 to $1,150 in six weeks and the trade is now mainstream (fastest-growing ETF in history, 5/25). With the cohort's first crack showing (viral DRAM ETF -20%, 6/7), a fresh long here chases peak sentiment rather than catching acceleration. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA; or the AI-memory cohort (viral DRAM ETF already -20% on 6/7) losing 50-DMA breadth, confirming distribution; or DRAM/HDD contract pricing rolling off the "new normal" peak. --- ### SUPV — Grupo Supervielle S.A. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SUPV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: argentina-financials, milei-reform-trade, em-bank-recovery Next catalyst: 2026-06-24 Thesis: Milei reform trade now in its delivery phase: SUPV is the highest-beta Argentine bank ADR on disinflation and credit normalization. Post-midterm mania (Oct 2025) has cooled to mid-range chop near $9.30, and June CPI ticking up to 4.6% is the first wobble. No catalyst until the Aug 19 print a fresh entry here is a probe, cleaner on a pullback to the ~$7.50 shelf. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$7.50 post-midterm shelf, OR two consecutive monthly CPI prints above 5% MoM signalling disinflation has stalled, OR a peso crawling-band break/devaluation. --- ### SVV — Savers Value Village, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SVV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands, trade-down-value-retail, secondhand-circular-economy Thesis: Busted-IPO thrift retailer basing on a trade-down narrative: Q1 (rep. ~2026-05-06) net sales +8.9%, U.S. comps +6.4%, and a 2026-06-02 term-loan rate cut sparked a +14.9% 30-day move off lows toward $13–14 analyst targets. But it's a recovery grind, not a mania leg no hard catalyst until the ~August Q2 print. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$8.70 June low breaks the base-and-recover structure; or U.S. comps on the next print falling outside the FY +2.5–4% guide, signalling the trade-down inflection stalled. --- ### SXC — Suncoke Energy Inc URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SXC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: coal-policy-revival, met-coke-steel, commodity-materials Thesis: Coal-policy sympathy squeeze, now three days old with no follow-through: SXC sits at its 52-wk high $9.69 (~+75% off the $5.52 low), RSI ~80, after Trump's 2026-06-03 $700M coal package funding that lands on an Oakland export terminal and thermal plants, not SXC's met-coke core. Extended ~+35% over the 50-day, retail-flagged overbought, no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print. Stand aside for a base; chasing the blowoff is the trap. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the 20-EMA (~$7.90), or a daily close back under the ~$8.00 breakout shelf; coal-policy headlines fade with no SXC-specific export-terminal throughput confirmation. Conversely, a tight consolidation that holds $8.50+ and digests the move would reset the setup. --- ### SYNA — Synaptics Incorporated URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SYNA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: edge-ai-silicon, physical-ai-robotics, semiconductor-analog-components Thesis: Legacy touch/display semi re-rating as edge-AI silicon: Core IoT +31% YoY (Q3, 5/7) toward FY26 >+40%/>$385M, plus a Google Research Coralboard/Coral NPU tie-up at I/O 2026. Narrative accelerating, but the easy leg ran $58→$149 and there's no dated catalyst until the 8/6 Q4 print a $149 ATH breakout is the trade, not mid-range chop. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close losing the ~$138 20-day then a daily close below the ~$116 long-term MA; or the 2026-08-06 Q4 print guiding Core IoT FY26 below ~+30% YoY (vs the >+40%/>$385M frame) or non-GAAP gross margin under ~52%. --- ### TBLA — Taboola.com Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TBLA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: agentic-ai-advertising, open-web-adtech, small-cap-index-inclusion Next catalyst: 2026-06-26 Thesis: Legacy open-web ad network repricing as an agentic-AI platform on a Q1 beat-and-raise (2026-05-07), but only ~6% FY26 growth and a ~$77M one-time legal windfall flatter the print. Near-term edge is mechanical Russell 2000/3000 inclusion effective 2026-06-26 not narrative velocity. MATURING, not accelerating. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $4.20 fills the post-Q1 earnings gap and breaks the May base; or the 2026-06-26 Russell inclusion passes with the week closing below $4.40 no passive follow-through and the only mechanical edge is spent. --- ### TBRG — TruBridge, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TBRG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, merger-arbitrage-cash-deal, healthcare-it-rcm Next catalyst: 2026-07-07 Thesis: Closed all-cash merger in its closing window, not a momentum setup: IKS Health buying TruBridge at $26.25 cash, definitive proxy filed, shareholder vote 2026-07-07. Stock pinned ~$26 = ~1% gross spread to a Q3 2026 close. The narrative leg is realized into a fixed price dead money for a velocity book; stand aside on fresh entries. Invalidation trigger: Deal-break signal: a daily close below ~$24 (market pricing rising break odds), spread widening past ~5%, a failed/postponed 2026-07-07 vote, TopCo approval not obtained by 2026-06-22, an HSR second request, or an IKS MAC claim. Any break gaps TBRG toward the ~$16 pre-rumor standalone level. --- ### TENB — Tenable Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TENB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cyber-security-software Thesis: Cyber laggard: single-digit grower (+9.6%), busted chart below 50/200-DMA, only hook is undated take-private speculation. Value-trap / deal-headline name, not momentum WATCH. --- ### TER — Teradyne, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TER/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment, ai-chip-infra-memory, hbm-test-intensity, gpu-test Next catalyst: 2026-04-23 Thesis: Record Q1 (rev +87% YoY to $1.28B, AI ~70% of mix) printed 2026-04-28 then sold off ~18% the analyst-rally-into-print faded as feared. Broadcom's 2026-06-05 guide miss reset hyperscaler-capex expectations and dragged TER ~12% to ~$358, back below the analyst PT cluster. Fundamentals intact (first merchant-GPU win, $50M FY26 line of sight), but momentum has rolled over a falling knife in a risk-off semi tape, not a fresh-entry setup until it bases. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$340 (loses the post-print shelf) confirms AI-capex deceleration; or the 2026-07-28 Q2 guide lands below ~$1.22B consensus; or the $50M FY26 merchant-GPU target is walked back. --- ### TH — Target Hospitality Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: ai-datacenter-buildout, hyperscaler-capex-beneficiary, legacy-pivot-datacenter, workforce-housing Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Workforce-housing small cap re-rated into an AI data-center landlord after a 2026-04-01 multi-year lease with a top-five hyperscaler for a North Texas campus; FY26 guide lifted to $360–370M and the stock roughly doubled off its $8–12 base. The first leg is spent a 2026-05-28 selling-stockholder secondary at $17 caps it pending a second campus or a Q2 revenue ramp. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$12 (post-deal breakout shelf) on >2x avg volume; OR an 8-K disclosing termination or material delay of the North Texas hyperscaler campus; OR FY2026 revenue guide cut back below the $360M floor. --- ### TLRY — Tilray Brands, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TLRY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: cannabis-reclassification, cannabis-rescheduling-schedule-iii, hemp-thc-recriminalization Next catalyst: 2026-06-29 Thesis: Cannabis Schedule-III reform trade live into the 2026-06-29 DEA adult-use rescheduling hearing (concludes ≤07-15); sector firming (CGC adult-use +43%) and a Congressional hemp-THC ban would clear gray-market competitors but TLRY's chart is busted at ~$5.45, below the 200-day, near 52-week lows. Defined-risk binary probe, not a momentum entry. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $4.50 (loss of the pre-hearing base); OR the 2026-06-29→07-15 DEA hearing concludes with no adult-use Schedule III recommendation / a punt to litigation (sell-the-news). No momentum entry until a daily close back above ~$5.80–6.00 reclaims structure. --- ### TOI — The Oncology Institute, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TOI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: health-managed-care Thesis: Value-based oncology turnaround inflecting to first-ever profitability: Q1'26 revenue +41% YoY, Florida capitation now profitable, FY26 adj-EBITDA guide $0–9M. Tripled off $2.02; a 10% owner keeps buying (12k sh @ $4.75, Jun 5). Real, accelerating story but price sits at the fresh 52-week-high shelf ($5.17) with no hard catalyst inside 30 days. A probe, not a chase. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $4.00 failed breakout, loses the rising 20-day, gap fill, trend broken. Fundamentally: Q2'26 (~Aug) cuts the FY26 adj-EBITDA guide below the $0 breakeven floor, or capitation revenue declines QoQ, killing the profitability-inflection leg. --- ### TORO — Toro Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TORO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: shipping-tankers-rates, deep-value-capital-return, micro-cap-low-float-squeeze Thesis: Panagiotidis shipping shell (NOT lawnmower-maker TTC) already ran 1.93→8.50 (~4.4x) on a discount-to-NAV/special-dividend story that is now spent. The $0.90 special div paid 2026-06-05 went out mostly as 5.7M NEW shares serial stock-dilution dressed as capital return. At ~$5.02 the cap sits well above a diluted ~$2.50/sh cash floor. Post-blowoff aftermath, no fresh accelerating leg. Invalidation trigger: No setup at current price. A fresh low-float probe would only trigger on a weekly close above ~$6.50 on >5x average volume paired with a NEW cash capital-return or accretive M&A catalyst. A daily close below $4.50 loses the post-dividend base; next support is the diluted ~$2.50/sh cash-NAV floor with an open air-pocket between. --- ### TRVI — Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TRVI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: rare-disease-approvals, chronic-cough-pipeline Next catalyst: 2026-06-30 Thesis: De-risking binary already fired: positive CORAL Phase 2b (IPF cough, 60.2% reduction, p<0.0001, June 2025) plus JAMA publication. Funded into 2030 after the April raise, but the next clinical topline is H2 2027 a ~14-month catalyst desert. Narrative leg spent; consolidating $13–16 near highs with no near-term momentum trigger. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $13.00 (April 2026 offering anchor) = post-deal supply control lost; below ~$12 confirms breakdown. Earlier exit on any 8-K disclosing a Phase 3 clinical hold/protocol amendment/SAE cluster, or a fresh equity raise despite the runway-into-2030 guidance. --- ### TWST — Twist Bioscience Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TWST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: Synthetic-DNA tools maker re-rating as a 2nd-order AI-drug-discovery enabler (Complex Genes launch, $1B rev by FY2031, adj-EBITDA breakeven targeted Q4 FY26). But the move blew off and reversed: a +10% gap to an $80.50 ATH on 6/4 was rejected -6.4% on 6/5 to close $69.22, back below the $70 pivot, now above the $64 average PT. Narrative intact, momentum broken a fresh entry chases a failed breakout, not an acceleration. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below ~$66 (loses the post-Q2 breakout shelf and 50-day, confirming the 6/4–6/5 gap as a failed breakout); or FY26 revenue guide cut below the $442M floor; or adj-EBITDA breakeven pushed past Q4 FY26 on the ~2026-08-03 Q3 print. --- ### TXG — 10x Genomics, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TXG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Spatial-biology re-rate but Atera revenue is a 2027 story, Q1 -3% YoY, -7.3% outside-reversal off the high stretched, post-catalyst, idiosyncratic. --- ### UCTT — Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UCTT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment, wfe-cycle, hbm-memory-capex Next catalyst: 2026-04-29 Thesis: 2026 WFE supercycle ($140–145B, +18–20% YoY) is the live, accelerating narrative and UCTT is the high-beta subsystem supplier with margin-recovery torque. But the stock is up ~4–5x to a $94.95 all-time high, then printed a -12.4% distribution day to $82.07 in a sector flush, with no company catalyst for ~7 weeks a chase, not a clean entry. Invalidation trigger: Daily close back below the ~$70 May-breakout shelf (≈ Street low target) signals parabola failure into mean reversion. Or fundamentally: 2026 WFE estimate cut below $140B; Q2 revenue under the $565M guide floor; or Products non-GAAP gross margin stalling below the 16.5% just reached. --- ### UI — Ubiquiti Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical, enterprise-networking, wifi7-refresh, low-float-volatility, post-earnings-reversal Next catalyst: 2026-05-11 Thesis: May 8 binary resolved against the momentum longs: a clean fundamental beat (GM 47% vs the 42% target, revenue +18.7% YoY) wasn't enough EPS missed the run-up consensus ($3.88 vs ~$4.42) and cash fell $437M→$176M, triggering a 42% May plunge from the ~$1,100 blow-off top. Now ~$567 and still making lower lows, with no catalyst until Q4 FY26 on Aug 21. A broken parabolic in repair, not an accelerating setup. Invalidation trigger: A weekly close below the 52-week low of $368.42, or a Q4 FY26 print (Aug 21) with GAAP gross margin back under 42% / revenue below the $788M Q3 run-rate either confirms the margin-recovery story rolled over rather than paused. A reclaim of the falling 50-DMA on expanding volume is the first evidence of a base. --- ### ULCC — Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ULCC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: oil-crash-rate-relief-cyclicals, ultra-low-cost-carrier, spirit-exit-capacity-absorption, airline-fuel-cyclical Next catalyst: 2026-04-30 Thesis: The SAVE-grounding binary already fired Spirit exited and Frontier's 2026-05-05 call guided ~20% Y/Y Q2 RASM growth on absorbed capacity. The trade is now a fuel-cyclical: ULCC re-rates only if jet fuel rolls over enough to push that RASM tailwind to the bottom line, since the same guide still calls for a wider-than-consensus Q2 loss. Sell-side has caught up (Citi $5, Susquehanna $4.50, Neutral); the squeeze window has closed. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the $3.25 pre-news base; OR jet fuel crack spread back above $40 sustained 10 sessions (fuel overwhelms the capacity tailwind); OR next print RASM growth below ~15% Y/Y vs the guided ~20%. --- ### UNIT — Uniti Group Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UNIT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical, fiber-reit, telecom-deleveraging Next catalyst: 2026-06-15 Thesis: Q1 print (reported 2026-05-11) resolved the binary benignly: $987.5M combined revenue, FY2026 guide reaffirmed at $3.63B rev / $1.45B adj EBITDA, net loss on $188M quarterly interest. Story shifts from pre-print coin-flip to a deleveraging-via-securitization grind (2nd Kinetic fiber ABS, $1.14B, ~6.18%). JPM and TD Cowen lifted PTs to $12 vs a ~$7.80 tape; re-rate is execution-paced, not momentum. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $7.00 (loses post-print base, back under the $7.50 floor); OR Q2 2026 call cuts FY guide below $3.63B revenue / $1.45B adjusted EBITDA; OR the Kinetic ABS is pulled or re-prices materially wide of the ~6.18% indicated coupon. --- ### USO — United States Oil Fund, LP URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/USO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: energy-oil-geopolitical, iran-conflict-risk-premium, strait-of-hormuz-supply, summer-fuel-squeeze Next catalyst: 2026-06-15 Thesis: Iran's risk premium and the physical Hormuz cut (5–6M bbl/day) that lifted WTI are unwinding together: a US–Iran MoU is reportedly signable this weekend/Monday and explicitly reopens Hormuz, returns Iranian barrels and unlocks frozen funds. The most probable near-term catalyst deflates the premium a fresh long-only WTI tracker is buying the top of a binary it cannot fade. Invalidation trigger: US–Iran MoU collapses or a fresh Gulf/Hormuz incident re-closes the strait AND USO reclaims a weekly close above its conflict-spike base/20-EMA that re-arms a momentum long. Otherwise a signed deal reopens Hormuz and returns barrels, deflating the premium. --- ### VECO — Veeco Instruments Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VECO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semicap-equipment, ai-chip-infra-memory, advanced-packaging, merger-arbitrage, semicap-consolidation Thesis: VECO is now a merger-arb proxy for Axcelis, not a standalone semicap: all-stock deal at 0.3575 ACLS/share, both shareholder votes approved (~Feb 2026), pending only China SAMR, close targeted 2H 2026. The 2026-06-09 NSA500 follow-on order lifts the combined entity but VECO's upside is ratio-capped; the live binary is the China sign-off, not Q2 ops. On close it converts to ACLS and delists. Invalidation trigger: China SAMR blocks, conditions, or visibly delays the merger past 2H 2026, or the agreement is terminated VECO de-couples from the 0.3575×Axcelis ratio and re-rates toward standalone value (well below the deal-implied ~$66). A widening VECO discount to 0.3575×ACLS is the early tell. --- ### VERU — Veru Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VERU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: biotech-precision-therapeutics Thesis: GLP-1 muscle-preservation narrative got Novo's stamp (2026-06-02 free-Wegovy supply deal + first-negotiation right), spiking VERU +167% intraday on 06-04 to a +88% close. But it's a no-cash supply deal, and a June 2026 S-3 just registered ~23.8M warrant/pre-funded shares for resale with 16.8M warrants now in-the-money at $3.00 a supply overhang bigger than the float now caps the squeeze. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $3.00 (the warrant strike — warrants fall out of the money and the base breaks) opens the path back to the $2.25 pre-catalyst shelf. An ATM/offering print, or share count climbing toward ~40M as warrants exercise, confirms the squeeze unwinding. --- ### VIAV — Viavi Solutions Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VIAV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: networking-optical Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Networking-optical/photonics theme maturing toward saturated first US-listed photonics ETF (EUV) debuted 2026-05-13 with 15 of 40 holdings +100% YTD, a late-cycle retail-discovery marker. VIAV is the laggard test-and-measurement sleeve, freshly diluted by a $500M raise at $45 (2026-05-20), with no catalyst until the ~mid-August FQ4 print. Laggard-chase into a crowded theme post-dilution; stand aside until it bases above $45. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the $45.00 May-2026 offering shelf; or NSE book-to-bill back under 1.0 on the FQ4 print (~mid-Aug); or the photonics complex (EUV ETF, LITE, COHR) rolling over on lower highs. --- ### VIR — Vir Biotechnology, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VIR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: t-cell-engagers, oncology-tce-platforms, biotech-binary-catalyst, psma-prostate-cancer, big-pharma-validation, hepatitis-delta Next catalyst: 2026-04-25 Thesis: The binary already resolved up: Feb 23 Astellas collaboration (up to $1.7B; $315M upfront) plus clean Phase 1 VIR-5500 data (no DLTs, 82% PSA50, 45% ORR) de-risked the PRO-XTEN masking story and the cash runway (now into H2 2028). Stock has faded the +65% spike and now consolidates above the rising 200-DMA (~$7.96) but below the 50-DMA ($9.49). No hard 30-day catalyst a base-reclaim watch ahead of Q4 HDV Phase 3. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the rising 200-DMA (~$7.96) breaks the post-Astellas base; OR VIR-5500 mHSPC expansion shows new DLTs / Grade ≥3 CRS absent in dose-escalation; OR HDV ECLIPSE Phase 3 (Q4 2026) misses the HDV-RNA suppression endpoint. --- ### VPG — Vishay Precision Group, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VPG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Thesis: Precision-components AI re-rate already played ($25→$136), post-parabolic above ALL analyst PTs with a -8.4% distribution day, no catalyst to ~8/4 late chase. --- ### VSH — Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VSH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: semiconductor-analog-components Next catalyst: 2026-05-07 Thesis: Analog ACCELERATING tag but ZERO AI/HBM exposure (auto-cycle), post-catalyst momentum chase, broken quote prior session APH is the cleaner analog pick. --- ### VSXY — Victorias Secret & Co. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VSXY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: consumer-retail-brands, retail-turnaround Thesis: Hillary Super turnaround confirmed by a +47% earnings blowoff (Q1 adj EPS $0.60 vs $0.32, comps +13%, FY op-income guide hiked to $550–580M). But the catalyst has fired and the June-11 proxy fight resolved in management's favor narrative now MATURING, sell-side neutralizing (UBS/Jefferies downgrades), no fresh catalyst until the ~late-Aug Q2 print. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below the June-2 gap-up shelf (~$70) or loss of the rising short-term moving average; or Q2 net sales below the $1.59B guide low, ending the four-quarter positive-comp streak. --- ### WGS — GeneDx Holdings Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WGS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: medtech-devices-diagnostics Thesis: Busted-growth genomics name: the May 4 print cut FY26 guide 12% and broke reimbursement (ARR ~$3,300, ~$200 light). Price has doubled off the $32 low to ~$60, but that's a recovery bounce ahead of the binary early-August Q2 ARR print, not a fresh accelerating leg. Gated on the next ARR data point. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the mid-$40s recovery shelf, or Q2 2026 blended ARR below the ~$3,300 Q1 baseline either confirms the reimbursement leg is still deteriorating and the recovery bounce has failed. --- ### WING — Wingstop Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WING/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: restaurants-dining, franchise-compounder, consumer-discretionary Thesis: De-rated former hyper-growth franchise compounder, off ~55% from its late-2024 ~$430 peak as 2024's +20% comps lapped into 2025 deceleration. Analyst split TD Cowen Hold $160 vs Stephens Overweight $225 (both 2026-06-04) frames the debate. The bull leg only re-fires if Q2-2026 domestic comps stabilize and re-accelerate; not a momentum pitch until it bases. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the ~$160 shelf (TD Cowen PT/Hold anchor), or Q2-2026 domestic same-store sales printing negative either confirms comp-deceleration over stabilization and kills the re-acceleration bull leg. --- ### WNC — Wabash National Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WNC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: freight-trucking-logistics, freight-cycle-recovery, trailer-oem Next catalyst: 2026-07-03 Thesis: Deep-cyclical trailer OEM at trough Q1'26 sales −20% YoY, negative gross margin, net debt > market cap. Backlog turned up to $837M (+$132M q/q) on a fragile freight recovery, but price sits near 52-week lows with no breakout a falling-knife/value-trap for a momentum book until it reclaims the downtrend. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below the $7.10 52-week low, or Q2'26 backlog reverses back under ~$705M (the Q4'25 level), signaling the order-recovery turn has stalled. --- ### WSC — WillScot Holdings Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/WSC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: industrial-power-ai, data-center-buildout, m-and-a-activism-special-sits, modular-space-leasing Thesis: H2-2026 leasing inflection plus a data-center vertical guided +50% revenue / +70% project pipeline (Q1 call 2026-05-08), with a TOMS/PE takeover floor underneath. But the stock has gone nowhere since the 2026-05-07 beat-and-raise (~$26.47, mid-range vs a $31.88 high) and the sell-side median PT ($24.25) now sits below the tape a probe until a weekly close over $31.88 or a confirmed bid. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below $22 breaks the post-Q1 recovery base (~20-wk EMA); or the Q2 print (~2026-08-06) cuts FY26 Adj EBITDA guide below $915M or shows leasing still negative YoY; or TOMS Capital exits / the PE strategic-review dies with no bid. --- ### XMTR — Xometry, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/XMTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: small-cap-ai-momentum Thesis: AI-manufacturing marketplace narrative is fundamentally accelerating Q1 marketplace rev +40% YoY, FY guide raised, Siemens embedding + ~$50M stake but the 6/2 $225M secondary at $85 broke the parabolic structure; stock now ~$79, below offer price, momentum rolled. Business strong, setup broken watch for an $85 — reclaim on a higher-low. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$70 (May breakout shelf) kills the momentum structure; or Q2 marketplace growth decelerating below ~30% YoY at the 2026-08-06 print breaks the acceleration narrative. --- ### XRX — Xerox Holdings Corporation URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/XRX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: m-and-a-activism-special-sits, legacy-pivot-turnaround, distressed-deleveraging Thesis: Activist-anchored distressed deleveraging: STARTEEPO Invest at 6.22% (3rd-largest holder, 13D/A 2026-06-01) bets Lexmark synergies + a 7x→3x leverage compression re-rate the levered equity. The 2026-06-04 pop to $3.49 has stalled near $3.40–3.47, still ~40% ABOVE the ~$2.25–2.50 consensus PT. Probe-only special-sit; the 2026-07-28 Q2 print is the binary, and it sits outside the window. Invalidation trigger: Weekly close below ~$2.75 (loses the post-activist breakout base off the May ~$2.43 shelf); OR the 2026-07-28 Q2 print shows gross leverage still ≥7x with no FCF inflection / cumulative synergy guide cut below $300M; OR a STARTEEPO 13D/A revealing a reduced stake removes the only structural bid. --- ### XTLB — XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/XTLB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: nasdaq-compliance-binary, reverse-merger-shell, psychedelics-biotech, special-situation-delisting, microcap-shell Next catalyst: 2026-06-22 Thesis: Binary Nasdaq delisting rescue, not a momentum setup. XTLB ($5.5M cap, $2.13, fresh 52-wk low $2.01) is a public shell that must close the Psyga Bio psychedelics reverse-merger + $1.5M raise and regain full listing compliance by 2026-06-30 or delist to OTC. The 2026-06-22 EGM vote is the first domino and the tape printing new lows into it reads as deal/dilution skepticism. Lottery probe only. Invalidation trigger: EGM vote fails or is postponed 2026-06-22; or Psyga close slips past 2026-06-29 and Nasdaq full-compliance isn't affirmed by 2026-06-30, triggering OTC relegation; or continued daily/weekly closes below the $2.01 52-week low into the event window. --- ### XXI — Twenty One Capital, Inc. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/XXI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: digital-asset-treasury, bitcoin-treasury-proxy, crypto-financials-exchange Next catalyst: 2026-06-17 Thesis: Leveraged-Bitcoin-treasury (DAT) proxy thesis stays broken: diluted mNAV ~0.68x means XXI trades ~32% below its own 43,514-BTC NAV, so the accretive equity flywheel runs in reverse. BTC has stopped falling (~$63.5k, basing) but the stock cracked its old $5.61 floor to a fresh all-time low of $5.31 and now carries a NYSE governance/compliance overhang after two directors resigned. Dead DAT theme a value trap, avoid fresh entries. Invalidation trigger: Avoid holds while diluted mNAV <1.0x and price under the ~$7 20-EMA. Flip to a probe only on a weekly close back above the 20-EMA AND mNAV reclaiming >1.0x AND BTC printing a higher low >$70k or a signed XXI–Strike definitive merger agreement the tape re-rates on volume. A sustained weekly close below $5.31 confirms the next leg down. --- ### YAAS — Youxin Technology Ltd URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/YAAS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: china-ai-saas, china-microcap-squeeze, salesforce-china-celnet Thesis: April's YATOP-deal squeeze (+56% to $1.77) has fully round-tripped; YAAS prints $0.91 (2026-06-12), back below $1 AFTER a 1-for-80 reverse split already burned the compliance lever. ~49%-of-float resale overhang and a re-arming Nasdaq sub-$1 delisting clock. Post-blowoff aftermath, not a setup. Invalidation trigger: Turns constructive only on a weekly close back above $1.77 (April squeeze high) on >1M shares plus a funded, revenue-bearing catalyst. Otherwise confirmed broken below the $0.7503 52-week low into an active Nasdaq sub-$1 delisting clock. --- ### ZETA — Zeta Global Holdings Corp. URL: https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ZETA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: enterprise-ai-software-data, ai-marketing-adtech, agentic-ai-applications Thesis: Redemption-momentum: 50% revenue growth, 19th straight beat-and-raise, and the Athena agentic-AI launch are draining the Culper fraud-short thesis. KeyBanc's May 29 bear-to-bull upgrade is the narrative inflection; theme ACCELERATING. But the leg is +38% in two weeks into 52-week-high resistance with no dated catalyst inside 30 days right story, late entry. Invalidation trigger: Daily close below $19.50 (loses late-May breakout shelf and rising 20-EMA), or a FY2026 revenue guide cut below the $1.78B floor at the Q2 (~Aug) print. --- ## Journal entries · latest first ### 2026-06-13 — Saturday, June 13, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-06-13/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime engine's close-of-day read is RISK-ON, an upgrade from NEUTRAL the week prior. The internals back the call rather than contradict it. Breadth sits at 61.3% of names above their 200-EMA (600 of 979) healthy participation, not a narrow-leadership tape. SPX closed at 742.23, +8.8% above its 200-EMA at 682.29. VIX at 19.44 is the one yellow flag: still tagged elevated, so the upgrade is running with one hand on the exit. Rates did the heavy lifting. The 10Y finished at 4.45% (WoW -10bps) and the 2Y at 4.05% (WoW -12bps), a parallel-ish drop with the short end leading. The 10Y-2Y spread… --- ### 2026-06-12 — Friday, June 12, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-06-12/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON holds for a second consecutive print (n=2), a continuation of the flip the engine logged on 2026-06-11 rather than a fresh signal. This time the two legs line up: breadth pushed to 61.3% (600/979) above the 200-EMA healthy, and broader than the participation that carried the initial flip while VIX at 19.44, still tagged elevated, has cooled into the high teens and stopped shadowing the move. SPX closed 742.23, +8.8% over its 200-EMA (682.29). Rates did the rest: the 10Y eased 10bps to 4.45% and the 2Y dropped 12bps to 4.05%, leaving the curve a hair steeper at 0.40% (+2bps), while the 10Y breakeven cooled 7bps to 2.29% and the real 10Y slipped to 2.16% (−3bps). The initial flip rode… --- ### 2026-06-11 — Thursday, June 11, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-06-11/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the regime engine's authoritative close, a flip from the NEUTRAL read published yesterday (2026-06-10). Breadth did the work: 57.8% (566/979) of the tape now holds above its 200-EMA, up off the low-50s the run had clung to and the firmest participation in weeks. Vol didn't cooperate VIX at 22.22 is elevated, higher than where it sat under the NEUTRAL tape, so this flip rode widening participation rather than a draining of fear. SPX closed 734.92, +7.9% over its 200-EMA (681.42), and the front end eased a touch with the 2Y down 4bps to 4.13% while the 10Y held 4.55% and the curve steepened to 0.42%. The flip earns more exposure, but the way it flipped sets the terms. Participation… --- ### 2026-06-10 — Wednesday, June 10, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-06-10/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL is the regime engine's authoritative close, the fourth consecutive NEUTRAL print and the same call as yesterday (2026-06-09). VIX at 19.87 is elevated, enough to keep a fear premium bid into the tape without tipping into panic. Breadth sits at 51.5% (504/979) above the 200-EMA mixed, and now hugging the low edge of the range it has held all run, closer to the 50% line than to a clean majority. SPX closed 728.57, +7.0% over its 200-EMA (680.76): the index level holds while the bench beneath it stays thin, and the front end keeps firming with the 2Y up 8bps on the week. A fourth NEUTRAL print says the engine still won't underwrite either direction, and with breadth down at 51.5% the… --- ### 2026-06-09 — Tuesday, June 9, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-06-09/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close, and the third straight NEUTRAL print, unchanged from yesterday (2026-06-08). Volatility is the line to watch: VIX at 18.92 is elevated, high enough to keep a fear premium in the tape but short of a panic. Breadth sits at 54.4% (533/979) above the 200-EMA mixed, lodged in the low-50s where it has stayed all run. SPX closed 734.39, +7.9% over its 200-EMA (680.56): index level intact, the bench underneath it thin, and the front end still firming with the 2Y up 7bps on the week. A third NEUTRAL print means the engine still won't pay up for either direction, and the positioning read follows from that: concentration over breadth-chasing. With… --- ### 2026-06-08 — Monday, June 8, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-06-08/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close, holding last Friday's read (2026-06-05). What shifted underneath is volatility: VIX at 21.51 is elevated, where the prior NEUTRAL print rested on calm vol. So this is no longer a quiet narrowing of participation; a fear bid has arrived. Breadth sits at 53.3% (522/979) above the 200-EMA, mixed and stuck in the low-50s. SPX closed 740.94, still +9.0% over its 200-EMA (680.04): index level intact, the tape thin underneath, and the front end firming hard with the 2Y up 19bps on the week. NEUTRAL with VIX elevated is a different animal than NEUTRAL on calm vol exposure has to be earned, and the bar just rose. Breadth under 54% means the index is… --- ### 2026-06-06 — Saturday, June 6, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-06-06/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime engine's close-of-day read is NEUTRAL, stepped down from RISK-ON. That downgrade happened against a calm tape, which is the part worth sitting with: VIX printed 15.4, the S&P closed at 740.06 +9.0% above its 200-EMA at 679.13 and breadth sat at a mixed 54.5% (534 of 979 names above their own 200-EMA). Index extension and quiet vol on one side, a model that no longer wants to call it risk-on on the other. The rates tape is where the caution came from. The 2Y closed at 4.05% (WoW +7bps) and the 10Y at 4.47% (WoW +2bps); the 10Y-2Y spread tightened to 0.38% (WoW -9bps). Inflation… --- ### 2026-06-05 — Friday, June 5, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-06-05/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read, a flip down from yesterday's RISK-ON. VIX sits at 15.4 (calm, no fear bid), so the downgrade isn't a volatility event. The tell is participation: breadth slipped to 54.5% (534/979) of names above their 200-EMA mixed, off the 61.5% that underwrote yesterday's risk-on print. SPX closed 740.06, still +9.0% above its 200-EMA (679.13). Index level is fine; the move is narrowing underneath it. NEUTRAL means earn your exposure rather than assume it. With breadth back under 55% the index strength is being carried by fewer names, so the right stance is selective: keep risk on the cleanest accelerating narratives with cluster confirmation… --- ### 2026-06-04 — Thursday, June 4, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-06-04/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.06 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 61.5% (602/979) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPX closed 757.83 +11.7% vs its 200-EMA (678.24). Regime flipped to RISK-ON from the prior NEUTRAL read. Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 155-name universe; 55 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-06-04. Flipped from the prior NEUTRAL… --- ### 2026-05-26 — Tuesday, May 26, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-26/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.59 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 60.3% (530/879) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPX closed 749.41 +11.9% vs its 200-EMA (670.03). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 155-name universe; 49 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-05-26. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded close-of-day regime state. Research… --- ### 2026-05-22 — Friday, May 22, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-22/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.76 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 58.7% (575/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 747.34 +11.5% vs its 200-EMA (670.03). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 154-name universe; 9 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-05-22. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded close-of-day… --- ### 2026-05-21 — Thursday, May 21, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-21/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.44 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 56.5% (553/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 743.54 +11.1% vs its 200-EMA (669.22). Regime flipped to RISK-ON from the prior NEUTRAL read. Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 133-name universe; 43 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-05-21.… --- ### 2026-05-20 — Wednesday, May 20, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-20/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.06 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 53.3% (522/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 739.77 +10.5% vs its 200-EMA (669.21). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 133-name universe; 22 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-05-20. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's… --- ### 2026-05-19 — Tuesday, May 19, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-19/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.82 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 50.1% (491/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 735.86 +10.1% vs its 200-EMA (668.61). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 18 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-05-19. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's… --- ### 2026-05-18 — Monday, May 18, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-18/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.43 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 49.7% (487/979) of names above their 200-EMA (narrowing — most names below their 200-EMA). SPX closed 734.55 +10.0% vs its 200-EMA (667.9). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 27 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-05-18. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded… --- ### 2026-05-15 — Friday, May 15, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-15/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.26 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 48.2% (472/979) of names above their 200-EMA (narrowing — most names below their 200-EMA). SPX closed 741.32 +11.3% vs its 200-EMA (666.34). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 133-name universe; 50 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-05-15. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded… --- ### 2026-05-14 — Thursday, May 14, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-14/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.87 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 55.1% (539/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 747.77 +12.1% vs its 200-EMA (666.74). Regime flipped to RISK-ON from the prior NEUTRAL read. Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 133-name universe; 44 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-05-14.… --- ### 2026-05-13 — Wednesday, May 13, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-13/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.99 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 52.6% (514/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 742.85 +12.0% vs its 200-EMA (663.0). Regime flipped to NEUTRAL from the prior RISK-ON read. A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 133-name universe; 30 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for… --- ### 2026-05-12 — Tuesday, May 12, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-12/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.38 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 55.2% (540/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 736.31 +11.1% vs its 200-EMA (662.67). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 41 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-05-12. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded… --- ### 2026-05-11 — Monday, May 11, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-11/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.19 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 57.5% (563/979) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 739.77 +11.8% vs its 200-EMA (661.94). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 48 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-05-11. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded… --- ### 2026-05-08 — Friday, May 8, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-08/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.08 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 59.2% (579/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 737.27 +11.2% vs its 200-EMA (663.23). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 33 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-05-08. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's… --- ### 2026-05-07 — Thursday, May 7, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-07/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.39 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 60.3% (589/977) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPX closed 730.28 +9.9% vs its 200-EMA (664.2). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 133-name universe; 13 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-05-07. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded close-of-day regime state. Research… --- ### 2026-05-06 — Wednesday, May 6, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-06/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.38 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 63.9% (624/977) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPX closed 733.05 +10.5% vs its 200-EMA (663.31). Regime flipped to RISK-ON from the prior NEUTRAL read. Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 22 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-05-06. Flipped from the prior… --- ### 2026-05-05 — Tuesday, May 5, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-05/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.29 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 59.3% (580/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 724.26 +9.3% vs its 200-EMA (662.5). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 13 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-05-05. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's… --- ### 2026-05-04 — Monday, May 4, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-04/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.99 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 57.1% (558/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 717.09 +8.3% vs its 200-EMA (661.87). Regime flipped to NEUTRAL from the prior RISK-ON read. A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 20 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for… --- ### 2026-05-01 — Friday, May 1, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-05-01/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.89 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 62.1% (607/978) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPX closed 721.22 +9.0% vs its 200-EMA (661.81). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 26 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-05-01. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded close-of-day regime state. Research… --- ### 2026-04-30 — Thursday, April 30, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-04-30/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.81 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 59.4% (520/876) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 718.59 +8.7% vs its 200-EMA (661.32). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 133-name universe; 23 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-04-30. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's… --- ### 2026-04-29 — Wednesday, April 29, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-04-29/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.83 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 52.2% (510/976) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 708.7 +7.2% vs its 200-EMA (661.14). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 133-name universe; 17 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-04-29. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's… --- ### 2026-04-28 — Tuesday, April 28, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-04-28/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.02 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 57.7% (563/975) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPX closed 711.57 +7.7% vs its 200-EMA (660.57). A mixed tape the regime engine reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 0 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-04-28. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's… --- ### 2026-04-27 — Monday, April 27, 2026 URL: https://orbyd.app/journal/2026-04-27/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON the regime engine's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.71 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 61.7% (602/975) of names above their 200-EMA (healthy participation). SPX closed 714.89 +8.3% vs its 200-EMA (660.06). Calm-to-constructive tape: the regime engine reads risk-on, the environment narrative-momentum is built for. Lean into strength, size to conviction, cut losers fast. The screen cast a 132-name universe; 33 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.) Regime RISK-ON on the public ledger for 2026-04-27. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded close-of-day regime state. Research… --- ## Methodology summary Stage A: liquidity screen. Stage B: momentum + narrative scoring. Stage C: frontier-model quality assessment. Stage D: portfolio composition. Stage E: postmortem-driven learning. Eight behaviour archetypes: Compounder, Cyclical recovery, Theme leader, Special situation, Earnings inflection, Retail squeeze, Defensive, Macro hedge. Each drives a behaviour profile and stop logic. Conviction levels: SUPREME, HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW. Each carries an explicit invalidation trigger that strips the conviction if breached. Full methodology: https://orbyd.app/methodology/ ## License + citation Content © orbyd. Available for research and reference; attribute on republication. Educational under the BaFin and EU framework; not investment advice.