{
  "tested": "2026-11-15",
  "data_through": "2026-11-13",
  "standard": [
    "Each line is measured in periods of 36 months; the two latest, Nov 2020–Oct 2023 and Nov 2023–Oct 2026, decide.",
    "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged by calendar month, months weighted equally. The uncertainty of each average comes from the daily returns inside every holding window, because overlapping windows are not independent and days nearly are.",
    "Every situation is defined on information from before the event, and the sign must survive entry at the next close, a same-tier benchmark, and removing names that stopped trading or traded flat.",
    "A line holds when both deciding periods are at least 2.43 standard errors from zero with the same sign and the checks agree (slightly more where a period has few independent days of data). That bar is set so that, across the 445 tests counted (71 lines here, 4 registered studies and 370 tried earlier on the same prices), chance alone would produce no more than 0.05 holding lines a run on average.",
    "A line that does not hold is shown with the range its effect could lie in: too little data to tell, unless that range rules out the size a stated belief claims.",
    "The price history holds 10,378 stocks, 4,914 of which stopped trading. It holds 97.4% of the exchange-listed common stocks since Jan 2018; a verdict is given only when it would stand even if the missing ones moved the result by 1.43 points, as if each had ended in a delisting loss of 55%."
  ],
  "periods": [
    {
      "label": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
      "from": "2017-01",
      "to": "2017-10",
      "role": "information"
    },
    {
      "label": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
      "from": "2017-11",
      "to": "2020-10",
      "role": "information"
    },
    {
      "label": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
      "from": "2020-11",
      "to": "2023-10",
      "role": "deciding"
    },
    {
      "label": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
      "from": "2023-11",
      "to": "2026-10",
      "role": "deciding"
    }
  ],
  "test": {
    "error_rate": 0.05,
    "k": 445,
    "k_lines": 71,
    "k_studies": 4,
    "k_tried_before": 370,
    "cut": 2.433,
    "findings": 0,
    "deciding": [
      "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
      "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
    ],
    "period_months": 36,
    "interval": 0.9,
    "store": {
      "symbols": 10378,
      "stopped": 4914,
      "listed_coverage_pct": 97.4,
      "coverage_from": "2018-01"
    }
  },
  "lines": [
    {
      "id": "hurdle.all",
      "family": "hurdle",
      "title": "Average liquid stock against the S&P 500",
      "what": "How the average liquid stock (equal weight, median dollar volume of the prior 63 sessions) did against the S&P 500.",
      "method": "Every session from 2017, the equal-weight return over the next 63 sessions (log growth) minus the S&P 500's, times four for a year; sessions averaged within the calendar month; the uncertainty from the daily changes of the books' log values. Liquid as for the event tests; a stopped stock keeps its last close.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "S&P 500",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 3.53,
        "low": -9.99,
        "high": 17.05
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -3.62,
          "low": -12.77,
          "high": 5.53,
          "median": -3.99,
          "n": 210,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 15.38,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 19
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -2.79,
          "low": -12.59,
          "high": 7.02,
          "median": -4.2,
          "n": 755,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 9.22,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 12.01
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -7.74,
          "low": -17.6,
          "high": 2.13,
          "median": -6.82,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 1.58,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 9.32
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -4.21,
          "low": -13.51,
          "high": 5.1,
          "median": -3.88,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 14.47,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 18.68
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -4.81,
        "low": -10.04,
        "high": 0.42,
        "median": -4.64,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39,
        "stocks_pct_a_year": 8.92,
        "sp500_pct_a_year": 13.73
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "hurdle.5_20m",
      "family": "hurdle",
      "title": "Average $5-20M stock against the S&P 500",
      "what": "How the average liquid stock of the $5-20M tier (equal weight, median dollar volume of the prior 63 sessions in $5-20M a day) did against the S&P 500.",
      "method": "Every session from 2017, the equal-weight return over the next 63 sessions (log growth) minus the S&P 500's, times four for a year; sessions averaged within the calendar month; the uncertainty from the daily changes of the books' log values. Liquid as for the event tests; a stopped stock keeps its last close.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "S&P 500",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 5.73,
        "low": -11.56,
        "high": 23.02
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -3.82,
          "low": -15.46,
          "high": 7.83,
          "median": -3.76,
          "n": 210,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 15.19,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 19
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -4.43,
          "low": -16.99,
          "high": 8.14,
          "median": -5.21,
          "n": 755,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 7.58,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 12.01
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -10.2,
          "low": -22.6,
          "high": 2.2,
          "median": -9.12,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": -0.88,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 9.32
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -4.47,
          "low": -16.58,
          "high": 7.65,
          "median": -2.64,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 14.21,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 18.68
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -6.18,
        "low": -12.86,
        "high": 0.51,
        "median": -5.5,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39,
        "stocks_pct_a_year": 7.55,
        "sp500_pct_a_year": 13.73
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "hurdle.20_100m",
      "family": "hurdle",
      "title": "Average $20-100M stock against the S&P 500",
      "what": "How the average liquid stock of the $20-100M tier (equal weight, median dollar volume of the prior 63 sessions in $20-100M a day) did against the S&P 500.",
      "method": "Every session from 2017, the equal-weight return over the next 63 sessions (log growth) minus the S&P 500's, times four for a year; sessions averaged within the calendar month; the uncertainty from the daily changes of the books' log values. Liquid as for the event tests; a stopped stock keeps its last close.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "S&P 500",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 1.92,
        "low": -11.87,
        "high": 15.71
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -3.63,
          "low": -13.21,
          "high": 5.96,
          "median": -3.69,
          "n": 210,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 15.38,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 19
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -3.12,
          "low": -13.27,
          "high": 7.03,
          "median": -4.37,
          "n": 755,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 8.89,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 12.01
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -7.04,
          "low": -16.91,
          "high": 2.83,
          "median": -6.28,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 2.28,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 9.32
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -5.12,
          "low": -14.81,
          "high": 4.57,
          "median": -4.89,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 13.56,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 18.68
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -4.97,
        "low": -10.32,
        "high": 0.39,
        "median": -4.89,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39,
        "stocks_pct_a_year": 8.76,
        "sp500_pct_a_year": 13.73
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "hurdle.100m_1b",
      "family": "hurdle",
      "title": "Average $100M-1B stock against the S&P 500",
      "what": "How the average liquid stock of the $100M-1B tier (equal weight, median dollar volume of the prior 63 sessions in $100M-1B a day) did against the S&P 500.",
      "method": "Every session from 2017, the equal-weight return over the next 63 sessions (log growth) minus the S&P 500's, times four for a year; sessions averaged within the calendar month; the uncertainty from the daily changes of the books' log values. Liquid as for the event tests; a stopped stock keeps its last close.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "S&P 500",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 1.74,
        "low": -8.24,
        "high": 11.72
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -3.6,
          "low": -9.13,
          "high": 1.93,
          "median": -3.54,
          "n": 210,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 15.4,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 19
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 0.41,
          "low": -4.96,
          "high": 5.79,
          "median": -1.78,
          "n": 755,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 12.42,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 12.01
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -4.85,
          "low": -11.81,
          "high": 2.11,
          "median": -5.01,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 4.47,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 9.32
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -3.11,
          "low": -10.29,
          "high": 4.08,
          "median": -2.91,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 15.57,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 18.68
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -2.6,
        "low": -6.13,
        "high": 0.93,
        "median": -2.96,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39,
        "stocks_pct_a_year": 11.13,
        "sp500_pct_a_year": 13.73
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "hurdle.over_1b",
      "family": "hurdle",
      "title": "Average over $1B stock against the S&P 500",
      "what": "How the average liquid stock of the over $1B tier (equal weight, median dollar volume of the prior 63 sessions in over $1B a day) did against the S&P 500.",
      "method": "Every session from 2017, the equal-weight return over the next 63 sessions (log growth) minus the S&P 500's, times four for a year; sessions averaged within the calendar month; the uncertainty from the daily changes of the books' log values. Liquid as for the event tests; a stopped stock keeps its last close.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "S&P 500",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 11.33,
        "low": -2.8,
        "high": 25.46
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 0,
          "months": 0,
          "windows": null,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": null,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": null
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 16.34,
          "low": 3.52,
          "high": 29.16,
          "median": 20.64,
          "n": 249,
          "months": 16,
          "windows": 11,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 45.02,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 28.68
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -5.3,
          "low": -15.45,
          "high": 4.85,
          "median": -4.48,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 4.02,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 9.32
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 6.03,
          "low": -3.86,
          "high": 15.92,
          "median": 6.38,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 24.7,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 18.68
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 3.2,
        "low": -3.12,
        "high": 9.52,
        "median": 5.54,
        "n": 1702,
        "months": 86,
        "windows": 34,
        "stocks_pct_a_year": 19.82,
        "sp500_pct_a_year": 16.62
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "spread.63",
      "family": "spread",
      "title": "Spread of 63-session returns across liquid stocks",
      "what": "The standard deviation of 63-session returns across all liquid stocks, by year: how far apart the best and worst stocks end up, and so how much picking the right ones can be worth.",
      "method": "Every session, the cross-sectional standard deviation of the next 63 sessions' returns (capped at +1000%, stopped stocks at their last close); sessions averaged by calendar month. A description, not a test: a spread is never zero, so it has no state.",
      "unit": "% (standard deviation)",
      "state": "descriptive",
      "deciding": [
        "2025",
        "2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-12",
          "mean": 16.43,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 16.31,
          "n": 251,
          "months": 12,
          "windows": null
        },
        {
          "period": "2018",
          "from": "2018-01",
          "to": "2018-12",
          "mean": 17.95,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 17.83,
          "n": 251,
          "months": 12,
          "windows": null
        },
        {
          "period": "2019",
          "from": "2019-01",
          "to": "2019-12",
          "mean": 18.61,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 18.36,
          "n": 252,
          "months": 12,
          "windows": null
        },
        {
          "period": "2020",
          "from": "2020-01",
          "to": "2020-12",
          "mean": 32.65,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 30.02,
          "n": 253,
          "months": 12,
          "windows": null
        },
        {
          "period": "2021",
          "from": "2021-01",
          "to": "2021-12",
          "mean": 21.52,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 20.78,
          "n": 252,
          "months": 12,
          "windows": null
        },
        {
          "period": "2022",
          "from": "2022-01",
          "to": "2022-12",
          "mean": 21.2,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 20.93,
          "n": 251,
          "months": 12,
          "windows": null
        },
        {
          "period": "2023",
          "from": "2023-01",
          "to": "2023-12",
          "mean": 21.32,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 20.89,
          "n": 250,
          "months": 12,
          "windows": null
        },
        {
          "period": "2024",
          "from": "2024-01",
          "to": "2024-12",
          "mean": 22.3,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 21.42,
          "n": 252,
          "months": 12,
          "windows": null
        },
        {
          "period": "2025",
          "from": "2025-01",
          "to": "2025-12",
          "mean": 26.42,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 26.99,
          "n": 250,
          "months": 12,
          "windows": null
        },
        {
          "period": "2026",
          "from": "2026-01",
          "to": "2026-12",
          "mean": 26.75,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 25.98,
          "n": 156,
          "months": 8,
          "windows": null
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Dec 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-12",
        "mean": 22.37,
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "median": 20.85,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": null
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "jump.all.21",
      "family": "jump",
      "title": "After a one-day jump, next 21 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before (any tier) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (up): their return over the next 21 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 21 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.07,
        "low": -0.79,
        "high": 0.93
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -0.24,
          "low": -2,
          "high": 1.51,
          "median": -0.3,
          "n": 1905,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 11
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.05,
          "low": -0.59,
          "high": 0.48,
          "median": -0.25,
          "n": 8721,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.03,
          "low": -0.58,
          "high": 0.52,
          "median": -0.23,
          "n": 9409,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0.04,
          "low": -0.63,
          "high": 0.71,
          "median": -0.76,
          "n": 10600,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.04,
        "low": -0.38,
        "high": 0.3,
        "median": -0.41,
        "n": 30635,
        "months": 118,
        "windows": 118
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.13,
            "n": 1904,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.11,
            "n": 8719,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.02,
            "n": 9407,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.01,
            "n": 10562,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.26,
            "n": 1905,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.03,
            "n": 8721,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0,
            "n": 9409,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.02,
            "n": 10600,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.24,
            "n": 1872,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.06,
            "n": 8641,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.04,
            "n": 9312,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.05,
            "n": 10508,
            "months": 36
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "jump.all.63",
      "family": "jump",
      "title": "After a one-day jump, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before (any tier) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (up): their return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.36,
        "low": -0.98,
        "high": 1.7
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 0.25,
          "low": -1.59,
          "high": 2.08,
          "median": 0.45,
          "n": 1905,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.23,
          "low": -1.23,
          "high": 0.77,
          "median": -1.6,
          "n": 8721,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.96,
          "low": -1.92,
          "high": 0,
          "median": -1.26,
          "n": 9409,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -0.6,
          "low": -1.54,
          "high": 0.34,
          "median": -2.56,
          "n": 10344,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.52,
        "low": -1.05,
        "high": 0.01,
        "median": -1.68,
        "n": 30379,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.33,
            "n": 1904,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.28,
            "n": 8719,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.92,
            "n": 9407,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.43,
            "n": 10341,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.23,
            "n": 1905,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.19,
            "n": 8721,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.89,
            "n": 9409,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.56,
            "n": 10344,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.31,
            "n": 1870,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.25,
            "n": 8578,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.98,
            "n": 9262,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.71,
            "n": 10203,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "jump.5_20m.21",
      "family": "jump",
      "title": "After a one-day jump, $5-20M a day, next 21 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($5-20M a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (up): their return over the next 21 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 21 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": -0.05,
        "low": -1.54,
        "high": 1.44
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -0.52,
          "low": -1.88,
          "high": 0.85,
          "median": -0.9,
          "n": 910,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 11
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.35,
          "low": -1.26,
          "high": 0.55,
          "median": -0.84,
          "n": 3683,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.19,
          "low": -0.94,
          "high": 0.56,
          "median": -0.41,
          "n": 4007,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -0.24,
          "low": -1.54,
          "high": 1.06,
          "median": -1.22,
          "n": 3753,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.28,
        "low": -0.82,
        "high": 0.26,
        "median": -0.84,
        "n": 12353,
        "months": 118,
        "windows": 118
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.27,
            "n": 910,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.64,
            "n": 3682,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.17,
            "n": 4006,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.21,
            "n": 3743,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.5,
            "n": 910,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.13,
            "n": 3683,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.03,
            "n": 4007,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.16,
            "n": 3753,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.52,
            "n": 897,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.24,
            "n": 3647,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.23,
            "n": 3962,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.21,
            "n": 3708,
            "months": 36
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "jump.5_20m.63",
      "family": "jump",
      "title": "After a one-day jump, $5-20M a day, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($5-20M a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (up): their return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "rules out the belief",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.65,
        "low": -1.91,
        "high": 3.21
      },
      "belief": {
        "claimed": -8.5,
        "source": "DESIGN-V9.md section 2: 'Thin stocks fade 8.5% after a news jump' (withdrawn as an artefact; research/v9-review/tests_verify.py (1) tested it at 63 sessions against the average stock)"
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -0.19,
          "low": -2.02,
          "high": 1.65,
          "median": -0.91,
          "n": 910,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.18,
          "low": -1.63,
          "high": 1.27,
          "median": -2.08,
          "n": 3683,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -1.14,
          "low": -2.77,
          "high": 0.48,
          "median": -1.98,
          "n": 4007,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -0.49,
          "low": -2.48,
          "high": 1.5,
          "median": -3.26,
          "n": 3679,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.57,
        "low": -1.47,
        "high": 0.33,
        "median": -2.2,
        "n": 12279,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.01,
            "n": 910,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.31,
            "n": 3682,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.99,
            "n": 4006,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.35,
            "n": 3677,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.08,
            "n": 910,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.14,
            "n": 3683,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.65,
            "n": 4007,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.47,
            "n": 3679,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.14,
            "n": 892,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.1,
            "n": 3615,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.24,
            "n": 3935,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.72,
            "n": 3609,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "jump.20_100m.21",
      "family": "jump",
      "title": "After a one-day jump, $20-100M a day, next 21 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($20-100M a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (up): their return over the next 21 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 21 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.26,
        "low": -0.65,
        "high": 1.17
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 0.07,
          "low": -2.52,
          "high": 2.67,
          "median": 0.4,
          "n": 751,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 11
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.14,
          "low": -0.86,
          "high": 0.58,
          "median": -0.16,
          "n": 3515,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.21,
          "low": -0.84,
          "high": 0.42,
          "median": -0.3,
          "n": 3566,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0.05,
          "low": -0.62,
          "high": 0.71,
          "median": -0.36,
          "n": 4131,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.09,
        "low": -0.5,
        "high": 0.33,
        "median": -0.22,
        "n": 11963,
        "months": 118,
        "windows": 118
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.14,
            "n": 751,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.1,
            "n": 3514,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.2,
            "n": 3565,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.02,
            "n": 4113,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.08,
            "n": 751,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.16,
            "n": 3515,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.22,
            "n": 3566,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.09,
            "n": 4131,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.1,
            "n": 736,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.13,
            "n": 3477,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.19,
            "n": 3521,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.07,
            "n": 4087,
            "months": 36
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "jump.20_100m.63",
      "family": "jump",
      "title": "After a one-day jump, $20-100M a day, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($20-100M a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (up): their return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.66,
        "low": -0.83,
        "high": 2.15
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 0.32,
          "low": -2.37,
          "high": 3.01,
          "median": 1.04,
          "n": 751,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.33,
          "low": -1.58,
          "high": 0.91,
          "median": -1.59,
          "n": 3515,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -1.24,
          "low": -2.39,
          "high": -0.1,
          "median": -1.23,
          "n": 3566,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -0.58,
          "low": -1.54,
          "high": 0.38,
          "median": -2.41,
          "n": 4025,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.63,
        "low": -1.26,
        "high": 0,
        "median": -1.63,
        "n": 11857,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.4,
            "n": 751,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.3,
            "n": 3514,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.3,
            "n": 3565,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.53,
            "n": 4024,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.3,
            "n": 751,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.3,
            "n": 3515,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.38,
            "n": 3566,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.31,
            "n": 4025,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.38,
            "n": 737,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.29,
            "n": 3450,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.24,
            "n": 3501,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.59,
            "n": 3963,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "jump.100m_1b.21",
      "family": "jump",
      "title": "After a one-day jump, $100M-1B a day, next 21 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($100M-1B a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (up): their return over the next 21 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 21 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": -1.08,
        "low": -2.27,
        "high": 0.11
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -0.35,
          "low": -1.84,
          "high": 1.14,
          "median": -0.32,
          "n": 262,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 11
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 0.84,
          "low": -0.03,
          "high": 1.72,
          "median": 0.49,
          "n": 1641,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 1.08,
          "low": 0.13,
          "high": 2.02,
          "median": -0.02,
          "n": 1888,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0,
          "low": -0.73,
          "high": 0.72,
          "median": -0.86,
          "n": 2700,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.56,
        "low": 0.09,
        "high": 1.02,
        "median": -0.19,
        "n": 6491,
        "months": 118,
        "windows": 118
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.46,
            "n": 261,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.85,
            "n": 1640,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 1.51,
            "n": 1888,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.03,
            "n": 2690,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.36,
            "n": 262,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.57,
            "n": 1641,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.89,
            "n": 1888,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.11,
            "n": 2700,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.36,
            "n": 256,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.84,
            "n": 1629,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 1.11,
            "n": 1879,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0,
            "n": 2691,
            "months": 36
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "jump.100m_1b.63",
      "family": "jump",
      "title": "After a one-day jump, $100M-1B a day, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($100M-1B a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (up): their return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": -1.25,
        "low": -5.24,
        "high": 2.74
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 0.56,
          "low": -1.65,
          "high": 2.77,
          "median": 0.62,
          "n": 262,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.25,
          "low": -2.18,
          "high": 1.68,
          "median": -1.31,
          "n": 1641,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 0.83,
          "low": -2.89,
          "high": 4.55,
          "median": -0.16,
          "n": 1888,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -0.42,
          "low": -1.88,
          "high": 1.04,
          "median": -1.97,
          "n": 2630,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.1,
        "low": -1.26,
        "high": 1.47,
        "median": -1.16,
        "n": 6421,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.57,
            "n": 261,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.45,
            "n": 1640,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.89,
            "n": 1888,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.07,
            "n": 2630,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.49,
            "n": 262,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.75,
            "n": 1641,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.28,
            "n": 1888,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.7,
            "n": 2630,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.64,
            "n": 258,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.25,
            "n": 1623,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.98,
            "n": 1873,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.42,
            "n": 2614,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "jump.over_1b.21",
      "family": "jump",
      "title": "After a one-day jump, over $1B a day, next 21 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before (over $1B a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (up): their return over the next 21 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 21 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 2.01,
        "low": -1.01,
        "high": 5.03
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 8,
          "months": 6,
          "windows": 11
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 1.59,
          "low": -1.19,
          "high": 4.37,
          "median": 0.83,
          "n": 85,
          "months": 28,
          "windows": 35
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 0.02,
          "low": -2.07,
          "high": 2.1,
          "median": -0.53,
          "n": 133,
          "months": 33,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 2.03,
          "low": -0.17,
          "high": 4.23,
          "median": 1.82,
          "n": 238,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 1.35,
        "low": 0.08,
        "high": 2.63,
        "median": 0.58,
        "n": 464,
        "months": 103,
        "windows": 118
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 8,
            "months": 6
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 2.39,
            "n": 85,
            "months": 28
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.31,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.61,
            "n": 238,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 8,
            "months": 6
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.72,
            "n": 85,
            "months": 28
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.03,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.38,
            "n": 238,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 8,
            "months": 6
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 1.59,
            "n": 85,
            "months": 28
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.02,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 2.03,
            "n": 238,
            "months": 36
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "jump.over_1b.63",
      "family": "jump",
      "title": "After a one-day jump, over $1B a day, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before (over $1B a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (up): their return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 7.77,
        "low": 1.12,
        "high": 14.42
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 8,
          "months": 6,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 6.42,
          "low": 0.63,
          "high": 12.2,
          "median": 1.87,
          "n": 85,
          "months": 28,
          "windows": 12
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -1.47,
          "low": -5.52,
          "high": 2.57,
          "median": -0.37,
          "n": 133,
          "months": 33,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 6.3,
          "low": 1,
          "high": 11.59,
          "median": -0.78,
          "n": 228,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 4.06,
        "low": 1.26,
        "high": 6.86,
        "median": 0.21,
        "n": 454,
        "months": 101,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 8,
            "months": 6
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 6.51,
            "n": 85,
            "months": 28
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.52,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 6.11,
            "n": 228,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 8,
            "months": 6
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 3.7,
            "n": 85,
            "months": 28
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.91,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 3.51,
            "n": 228,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 8,
            "months": 6
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 6.42,
            "n": 85,
            "months": 28
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.47,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 6.3,
            "n": 228,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "drop.all.21",
      "family": "drop",
      "title": "After a one-day drop, next 21 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before (any tier) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (down): their return over the next 21 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 21 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.5,
        "low": -0.2,
        "high": 1.2
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 0.28,
          "low": -429.67,
          "high": 430.23,
          "median": -0.57,
          "n": 1980,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 11
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.19,
          "low": -0.8,
          "high": 0.42,
          "median": -0.4,
          "n": 8353,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 0.09,
          "low": -0.45,
          "high": 0.64,
          "median": -0.07,
          "n": 8844,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0.59,
          "low": 0.16,
          "high": 1.03,
          "median": -0.34,
          "n": 9178,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.17,
        "low": -34.96,
        "high": 35.3,
        "median": -0.32,
        "n": 28355,
        "months": 118,
        "windows": 118
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.62,
            "n": 1980,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.13,
            "n": 8342,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.12,
            "n": 8839,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.39,
            "n": 9171,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.27,
            "n": 1980,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.17,
            "n": 8353,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.1,
            "n": 8844,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.58,
            "n": 9178,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.28,
            "n": 1971,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.18,
            "n": 8309,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.1,
            "n": 8807,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.61,
            "n": 9141,
            "months": 36
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "drop.all.63",
      "family": "drop",
      "title": "After a one-day drop, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before (any tier) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (down): their return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.86,
        "low": -0.31,
        "high": 2.03
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 0.14,
          "low": -406.25,
          "high": 406.53,
          "median": -0.7,
          "n": 1980,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.1,
          "low": -1.07,
          "high": 0.87,
          "median": -1.4,
          "n": 8353,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.56,
          "low": -1.46,
          "high": 0.33,
          "median": -0.65,
          "n": 8844,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0.3,
          "low": -0.46,
          "high": 1.06,
          "median": -1.67,
          "n": 8908,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.11,
        "low": -34.11,
        "high": 33.9,
        "median": -1.17,
        "n": 28085,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.31,
            "n": 1980,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.13,
            "n": 8342,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.58,
            "n": 8839,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.15,
            "n": 8902,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.14,
            "n": 1980,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.02,
            "n": 8353,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.59,
            "n": 8844,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.29,
            "n": 8908,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.13,
            "n": 1962,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.15,
            "n": 8277,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.55,
            "n": 8779,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.33,
            "n": 8844,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "drop.5_20m.21",
      "family": "drop",
      "title": "After a one-day drop, $5-20M a day, next 21 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($5-20M a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (down): their return over the next 21 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 21 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 1.08,
        "low": -0.02,
        "high": 2.18
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -0.41,
          "low": -2.67,
          "high": 1.84,
          "median": -0.69,
          "n": 846,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 11
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.75,
          "low": -1.62,
          "high": 0.11,
          "median": -0.58,
          "n": 3405,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.03,
          "low": -0.76,
          "high": 0.7,
          "median": -0.07,
          "n": 3450,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 1.05,
          "low": 0.22,
          "high": 1.89,
          "median": -0.33,
          "n": 2985,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.05,
        "low": -0.42,
        "high": 0.52,
        "median": -0.37,
        "n": 10686,
        "months": 118,
        "windows": 118
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.11,
            "n": 846,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.79,
            "n": 3401,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.03,
            "n": 3449,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.97,
            "n": 2983,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.41,
            "n": 846,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.6,
            "n": 3405,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.1,
            "n": 3450,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.1,
            "n": 2985,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.41,
            "n": 841,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.74,
            "n": 3391,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.01,
            "n": 3438,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.13,
            "n": 2974,
            "months": 36
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "drop.5_20m.63",
      "family": "drop",
      "title": "After a one-day drop, $5-20M a day, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($5-20M a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (down): their return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 2.64,
        "low": 0.37,
        "high": 4.91
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -0.14,
          "low": -2.76,
          "high": 2.48,
          "median": -0.37,
          "n": 846,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -1.35,
          "low": -2.89,
          "high": 0.18,
          "median": -2.24,
          "n": 3405,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -1.32,
          "low": -2.77,
          "high": 0.13,
          "median": -1.04,
          "n": 3450,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 1.32,
          "low": -0.43,
          "high": 3.07,
          "median": -0.92,
          "n": 2903,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.46,
        "low": -1.32,
        "high": 0.41,
        "median": -1.33,
        "n": 10604,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.23,
            "n": 846,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.95,
            "n": 3401,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.42,
            "n": 3449,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.26,
            "n": 2900,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.03,
            "n": 846,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -1.1,
            "n": 3405,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.88,
            "n": 3450,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.3,
            "n": 2903,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.11,
            "n": 839,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -1.38,
            "n": 3380,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.33,
            "n": 3426,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.41,
            "n": 2880,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "drop.20_100m.21",
      "family": "drop",
      "title": "After a one-day drop, $20-100M a day, next 21 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($20-100M a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (down): their return over the next 21 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 21 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": -0.01,
        "low": -0.89,
        "high": 0.87
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 1.22,
          "low": -1012.32,
          "high": 1014.75,
          "median": -0.66,
          "n": 834,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 11
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.1,
          "low": -0.73,
          "high": 0.52,
          "median": -0.5,
          "n": 3423,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 0.25,
          "low": -0.42,
          "high": 0.92,
          "median": -0.21,
          "n": 3413,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0.24,
          "low": -0.33,
          "high": 0.81,
          "median": -0.37,
          "n": 3584,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.22,
        "low": -82.54,
        "high": 82.99,
        "median": -0.4,
        "n": 11254,
        "months": 118,
        "windows": 118
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 1.51,
            "n": 834,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.02,
            "n": 3416,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.28,
            "n": 3412,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.05,
            "n": 3581,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 1.22,
            "n": 834,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.11,
            "n": 3423,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.21,
            "n": 3413,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.25,
            "n": 3584,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 1.21,
            "n": 832,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.09,
            "n": 3401,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.27,
            "n": 3394,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.25,
            "n": 3568,
            "months": 36
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "drop.20_100m.63",
      "family": "drop",
      "title": "After a one-day drop, $20-100M a day, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($20-100M a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (down): their return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": -0.9,
        "low": -2.49,
        "high": 0.69
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 1.17,
          "low": -956.01,
          "high": 958.34,
          "median": -1.13,
          "n": 834,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 0.44,
          "low": -0.61,
          "high": 1.5,
          "median": -1.17,
          "n": 3423,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 0.11,
          "low": -1.08,
          "high": 1.29,
          "median": -0.79,
          "n": 3413,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -0.79,
          "low": -1.85,
          "high": 0.28,
          "median": -2.45,
          "n": 3476,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.04,
        "low": -80.05,
        "high": 80.13,
        "median": -1.48,
        "n": 11146,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 1.05,
            "n": 834,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.52,
            "n": 3416,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.09,
            "n": 3412,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -1.16,
            "n": 3474,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 1.13,
            "n": 834,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.51,
            "n": 3423,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.07,
            "n": 3413,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.54,
            "n": 3476,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 1.16,
            "n": 827,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.29,
            "n": 3386,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.18,
            "n": 3382,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.81,
            "n": 3451,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "drop.100m_1b.21",
      "family": "drop",
      "title": "After a one-day drop, $100M-1B a day, next 21 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($100M-1B a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (down): their return over the next 21 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 21 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.07,
        "low": -0.98,
        "high": 1.12
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -0.3,
          "low": -1.82,
          "high": 1.23,
          "median": -0.23,
          "n": 320,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 11
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 0.82,
          "low": -0.08,
          "high": 1.72,
          "median": 0.06,
          "n": 1626,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 0.47,
          "low": -0.36,
          "high": 1.3,
          "median": 0.28,
          "n": 1994,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0.54,
          "low": -0.12,
          "high": 1.19,
          "median": -0.33,
          "n": 2511,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.53,
        "low": 0.09,
        "high": 0.97,
        "median": -0.08,
        "n": 6451,
        "months": 118,
        "windows": 118
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.03,
            "n": 320,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 1,
            "n": 1626,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.38,
            "n": 1991,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.35,
            "n": 2509,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.25,
            "n": 320,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.53,
            "n": 1626,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.26,
            "n": 1994,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.42,
            "n": 2511,
            "months": 36
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.31,
            "n": 318,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.86,
            "n": 1618,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.49,
            "n": 1987,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.53,
            "n": 2501,
            "months": 36
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "drop.100m_1b.63",
      "family": "drop",
      "title": "After a one-day drop, $100M-1B a day, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before ($100M-1B a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (down): their return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.22,
        "low": -1.98,
        "high": 2.42
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -2.14,
          "low": -4.41,
          "high": 0.13,
          "median": -0.68,
          "n": 320,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 2.22,
          "low": 0.05,
          "high": 4.39,
          "median": -0.54,
          "n": 1626,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 0.4,
          "low": -1.22,
          "high": 2.03,
          "median": -0.03,
          "n": 1994,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0.62,
          "low": -0.87,
          "high": 2.12,
          "median": -1.39,
          "n": 2434,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.81,
        "low": -0.16,
        "high": 1.79,
        "median": -0.64,
        "n": 6374,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -1.94,
            "n": 320,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 2.21,
            "n": 1626,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.3,
            "n": 1991,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.66,
            "n": 2433,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -2.21,
            "n": 320,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 1.72,
            "n": 1626,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.13,
            "n": 1994,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.37,
            "n": 2434,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -2.3,
            "n": 315,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 2.28,
            "n": 1611,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.45,
            "n": 1981,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.65,
            "n": 2418,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "drop.over_1b.21",
      "family": "drop",
      "title": "After a one-day drop, over $1B a day, next 21 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before (over $1B a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (down): their return over the next 21 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 21 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 1.74,
        "low": -1.4,
        "high": 4.88
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 6,
          "months": 4,
          "windows": 9
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 2.36,
          "low": -0.18,
          "high": 4.9,
          "median": 1.97,
          "n": 72,
          "months": 27,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.78,
          "low": -2.93,
          "high": 1.37,
          "median": -1.04,
          "n": 123,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 37
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0.96,
          "low": -1.34,
          "high": 3.26,
          "median": 1.02,
          "n": 226,
          "months": 35,
          "windows": 35
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.81,
        "low": -0.49,
        "high": 2.1,
        "median": 0.28,
        "n": 427,
        "months": 100,
        "windows": 117
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 6,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 2.69,
            "n": 72,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.22,
            "n": 123,
            "months": 34
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.59,
            "n": 226,
            "months": 35
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 6,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.59,
            "n": 72,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.98,
            "n": 123,
            "months": 34
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.06,
            "n": 226,
            "months": 35
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 6,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 2.36,
            "n": 72,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.78,
            "n": 123,
            "months": 34
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.96,
            "n": 226,
            "months": 35
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "drop.over_1b.63",
      "family": "drop",
      "title": "After a one-day drop, over $1B a day, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks liquid the day before (over $1B a day) with a one-day move of at least 3 standard deviations of its prior 63 sessions and at least 4% against the S&P 500 (down): their return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price).",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 1.91,
        "low": -4.18,
        "high": 8
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 6,
          "months": 4,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 4.59,
          "low": -0.86,
          "high": 10.04,
          "median": 2.35,
          "n": 72,
          "months": 27,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -1.24,
          "low": -5.05,
          "high": 2.56,
          "median": -0.7,
          "n": 123,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0.67,
          "low": -4.11,
          "high": 5.45,
          "median": -0.29,
          "n": 218,
          "months": 33,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 1.22,
        "low": -1.37,
        "high": 3.81,
        "median": 0.69,
        "n": 419,
        "months": 98,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 6,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 4.51,
            "n": 72,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.2,
            "n": 123,
            "months": 34
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.97,
            "n": 218,
            "months": 33
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 6,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.31,
            "n": 72,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -2.58,
            "n": 123,
            "months": 34
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -2.46,
            "n": 218,
            "months": 33
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 6,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 4.59,
            "n": 72,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.24,
            "n": 123,
            "months": 34
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.67,
            "n": 218,
            "months": 33
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.rise_50.63",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After a rise of 50% from entry, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock rose 50% from the entry close: its return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 1.57,
        "low": -3.8,
        "high": 6.94
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 1.84,
          "low": -9.41,
          "high": 13.08,
          "median": 0.59,
          "n": 149,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 1.45,
          "low": -2.64,
          "high": 5.54,
          "median": 0.21,
          "n": 1273,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.4,
          "low": -4.62,
          "high": 3.82,
          "median": -3.57,
          "n": 1351,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 1.17,
          "low": -2.18,
          "high": 4.51,
          "median": -0.95,
          "n": 1984,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.83,
        "low": -1.46,
        "high": 3.11,
        "median": -1.38,
        "n": 4757,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 1.9,
            "n": 149,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 1.36,
            "n": 1273,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.44,
            "n": 1351,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.52,
            "n": 1982,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 1.85,
            "n": 149,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 1.58,
            "n": 1273,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.32,
            "n": 1351,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.23,
            "n": 1984,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 0.69,
            "n": 147,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 1.15,
            "n": 1247,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.58,
            "n": 1319,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.26,
            "n": 1952,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.rise_50.126",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After a rise of 50% from entry, next 126 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock rose 50% from the entry close: its return over the next 126 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 126 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 2.69,
        "low": -7.33,
        "high": 12.71
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 3.86,
          "low": -13.24,
          "high": 20.95,
          "median": -1.39,
          "n": 149,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 3
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 1.97,
          "low": -5.54,
          "high": 9.49,
          "median": -1.03,
          "n": 1273,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 0.63,
          "low": -6.86,
          "high": 8.13,
          "median": -5.2,
          "n": 1351,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 3.32,
          "low": -3.38,
          "high": 10.01,
          "median": -1.88,
          "n": 1796,
          "months": 31,
          "windows": 6
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 2.08,
        "low": -2.11,
        "high": 6.27,
        "median": -2.55,
        "n": 4568,
        "months": 113,
        "windows": 20
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 4.28,
            "n": 149,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 2.01,
            "n": 1273,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.65,
            "n": 1351,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 3.53,
            "n": 1794,
            "months": 31
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 3.89,
            "n": 149,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 2.26,
            "n": 1273,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.67,
            "n": 1351,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 3.35,
            "n": 1796,
            "months": 31
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": 2.99,
            "n": 145,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 1.41,
            "n": 1235,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.34,
            "n": 1307,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 3.12,
            "n": 1748,
            "months": 31
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.rise_100.63",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After a rise of 100% from entry, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock rose 100% from the entry close: its return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 1.21,
        "low": -6.93,
        "high": 9.35
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 30,
          "months": 8,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 4.35,
          "low": -2.06,
          "high": 10.76,
          "median": -1.15,
          "n": 368,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 0.68,
          "low": -5.49,
          "high": 6.85,
          "median": -5.58,
          "n": 523,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 1.89,
          "low": -3.45,
          "high": 7.23,
          "median": -2.06,
          "n": 712,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 2.38,
        "low": -1.15,
        "high": 5.92,
        "median": -3.19,
        "n": 1633,
        "months": 114,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 30,
            "months": 8
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 5.55,
            "n": 368,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.48,
            "n": 523,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 2.08,
            "n": 711,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 30,
            "months": 8
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 4.33,
            "n": 368,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.89,
            "n": 523,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 1.95,
            "n": 712,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 29,
            "months": 8
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 4.56,
            "n": 355,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 1.02,
            "n": 511,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 2.03,
            "n": 700,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.rise_100.126",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After a rise of 100% from entry, next 126 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock rose 100% from the entry close: its return over the next 126 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 126 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.91,
        "low": -14.69,
        "high": 16.51
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 30,
          "months": 8,
          "windows": 2
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 5.04,
          "low": -7.03,
          "high": 17.11,
          "median": -3.96,
          "n": 368,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 3.48,
          "low": -7.84,
          "high": 14.8,
          "median": -7.94,
          "n": 523,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 4.39,
          "low": -6.4,
          "high": 15.19,
          "median": -5.55,
          "n": 626,
          "months": 31,
          "windows": 6
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 4.12,
        "low": -2.88,
        "high": 11.11,
        "median": -5.68,
        "n": 1547,
        "months": 111,
        "windows": 19
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 30,
            "months": 8
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 5.25,
            "n": 368,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 3.24,
            "n": 523,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 4.42,
            "n": 625,
            "months": 31
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 30,
            "months": 8
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 5.17,
            "n": 368,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 3.71,
            "n": 523,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 4.42,
            "n": 626,
            "months": 31
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 29,
            "months": 8
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 5.09,
            "n": 351,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 3.52,
            "n": 506,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 4.39,
            "n": 611,
            "months": 31
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.fall_30.63",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After a fall of 30% from entry, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock fell 30% from the entry close: its return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 0.45,
        "low": -4.05,
        "high": 4.95
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -1.51,
          "low": -30.56,
          "high": 27.55,
          "median": -2.92,
          "n": 133,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 0.88,
          "low": -2.2,
          "high": 3.96,
          "median": -2.21,
          "n": 2235,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.46,
          "low": -3.87,
          "high": 2.95,
          "median": -0.41,
          "n": 2200,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -0.01,
          "low": -2.97,
          "high": 2.94,
          "median": -2.91,
          "n": 1796,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0,
        "low": -2.97,
        "high": 2.96,
        "median": -1.72,
        "n": 6364,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.05,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.52,
            "n": 2234,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.78,
            "n": 2200,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.23,
            "n": 1795,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -1.54,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.94,
            "n": 2235,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.4,
            "n": 2200,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -0.12,
            "n": 1796,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -1.51,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.87,
            "n": 2216,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.5,
            "n": 2193,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.06,
            "n": 1792,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.fall_30.126",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After a fall of 30% from entry, next 126 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock fell 30% from the entry close: its return over the next 126 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 126 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 1.8,
        "low": -5.63,
        "high": 9.23
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -5.78,
          "low": -34.34,
          "high": 22.77,
          "median": -4.45,
          "n": 133,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 3
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 1.26,
          "low": -5.04,
          "high": 7.56,
          "median": -4.3,
          "n": 2235,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.85,
          "low": -6.17,
          "high": 4.47,
          "median": -2.81,
          "n": 2200,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 0.95,
          "low": -4.27,
          "high": 6.16,
          "median": -5.35,
          "n": 1555,
          "months": 31,
          "windows": 6
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.12,
        "low": -4.27,
        "high": 4.02,
        "median": -3.91,
        "n": 6123,
        "months": 113,
        "windows": 20
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -3.99,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.74,
            "n": 2234,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.08,
            "n": 2200,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.62,
            "n": 1551,
            "months": 31
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -5.82,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 1.29,
            "n": 2235,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.68,
            "n": 2200,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.8,
            "n": 1555,
            "months": 31
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -5.78,
            "n": 133,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 0.98,
            "n": 2195,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.48,
            "n": 2178,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 0.93,
            "n": 1545,
            "months": 31
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.fall_50.63",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After a fall of 50% from entry, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock fell 50% from the entry close: its return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 6.47,
        "low": -1.04,
        "high": 13.98
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 38,
          "months": 9,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.46,
          "low": -4.73,
          "high": 3.81,
          "median": 6.29,
          "n": 924,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -3.51,
          "low": -8.49,
          "high": 1.47,
          "median": -3.48,
          "n": 836,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 2.96,
          "low": -2.69,
          "high": 8.6,
          "median": -0.81,
          "n": 659,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.22,
        "low": -3.17,
        "high": 2.73,
        "median": 0.72,
        "n": 2456,
        "months": 115,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 38,
            "months": 9
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -1.07,
            "n": 923,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -4.39,
            "n": 835,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 2.42,
            "n": 658,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 38,
            "months": 9
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.44,
            "n": 924,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -3.54,
            "n": 836,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 3,
            "n": 659,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 38,
            "months": 9
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -0.55,
            "n": 914,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -3.46,
            "n": 831,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 2.82,
            "n": 657,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.fall_50.126",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After a fall of 50% from entry, next 126 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock fell 50% from the entry close: its return over the next 126 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 126 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 14.9,
        "low": 2.23,
        "high": 27.57
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 38,
          "months": 9,
          "windows": 2
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 2.1,
          "low": -5.32,
          "high": 9.52,
          "median": 2.44,
          "n": 924,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -8.65,
          "low": -16.88,
          "high": -0.42,
          "median": -10.67,
          "n": 836,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 6.25,
          "low": -3.42,
          "high": 15.93,
          "median": -3.94,
          "n": 581,
          "months": 31,
          "windows": 6
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.32,
        "low": -5.33,
        "high": 4.69,
        "median": -3.92,
        "n": 2378,
        "months": 112,
        "windows": 19
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 38,
            "months": 9
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 1.77,
            "n": 923,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -9.04,
            "n": 835,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 5.62,
            "n": 580,
            "months": 31
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 38,
            "months": 9
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 2.18,
            "n": 924,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -8.45,
            "n": 836,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 6.17,
            "n": 581,
            "months": 31
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 38,
            "months": 9
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 1.83,
            "n": 903,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -8.72,
            "n": 825,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 6.32,
            "n": 576,
            "months": 31
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.pullback_25.63",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After doubling, then 25% below the peak, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock doubled from the entry close and then closed 25% below its highest close since entry: its return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 10.39,
        "low": -0.58,
        "high": 21.36
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 5,
          "months": 5,
          "windows": 3
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 6.88,
          "low": -0.75,
          "high": 14.5,
          "median": 1.67,
          "n": 175,
          "months": 31,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -5,
          "low": -12.13,
          "high": 2.13,
          "median": -7.9,
          "n": 316,
          "months": 35,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 5.39,
          "low": -2.99,
          "high": 13.77,
          "median": -4.37,
          "n": 396,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 1.75,
        "low": -2.66,
        "high": 6.16,
        "median": -4.32,
        "n": 892,
        "months": 105,
        "windows": 38
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 5,
            "months": 5
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 6.19,
            "n": 175,
            "months": 31
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -5.34,
            "n": 316,
            "months": 35
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 4.4,
            "n": 395,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 5,
            "months": 5
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 6.87,
            "n": 175,
            "months": 31
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -4.9,
            "n": 316,
            "months": 35
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 5.24,
            "n": 396,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 5,
            "months": 5
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 6.43,
            "n": 173,
            "months": 31
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -4.92,
            "n": 314,
            "months": 35
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 5.3,
            "n": 393,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.pullback_25.126",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After doubling, then 25% below the peak, next 126 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock doubled from the entry close and then closed 25% below its highest close since entry: its return over the next 126 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 126 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 11.78,
        "low": -6.94,
        "high": 30.5
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 5,
          "months": 5,
          "windows": 2
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 13.1,
          "low": 0.18,
          "high": 26.02,
          "median": 3.07,
          "n": 175,
          "months": 31,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -3.83,
          "low": -15.26,
          "high": 7.61,
          "median": -8.05,
          "n": 316,
          "months": 35,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 7.95,
          "low": -6.93,
          "high": 22.83,
          "median": -3.84,
          "n": 281,
          "months": 31,
          "windows": 6
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 4.44,
        "low": -3.27,
        "high": 12.16,
        "median": -4.64,
        "n": 777,
        "months": 102,
        "windows": 19
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 5,
            "months": 5
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 12.38,
            "n": 175,
            "months": 31
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -4.02,
            "n": 316,
            "months": 35
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 7.41,
            "n": 277,
            "months": 31
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 5,
            "months": 5
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 12.91,
            "n": 175,
            "months": 31
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -3.83,
            "n": 316,
            "months": 35
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 7.77,
            "n": 281,
            "months": 31
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 5,
            "months": 5
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 11.79,
            "n": 173,
            "months": 31
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -4.37,
            "n": 313,
            "months": 35
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 7.58,
            "n": 277,
            "months": 31
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.pullback_35.63",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After doubling, then 35% below the peak, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock doubled from the entry close and then closed 35% below its highest close since entry: its return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 11.02,
        "low": -2.98,
        "high": 25.02
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 3,
          "months": 4,
          "windows": 2
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 16.3,
          "low": 4.39,
          "high": 28.21,
          "median": 0.59,
          "n": 97,
          "months": 27,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -1.62,
          "low": -10.45,
          "high": 7.22,
          "median": -7.26,
          "n": 219,
          "months": 33,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 9.4,
          "low": -1.51,
          "high": 20.31,
          "median": -4.96,
          "n": 282,
          "months": 33,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 6.45,
        "low": 0.51,
        "high": 12.4,
        "median": -5.29,
        "n": 600,
        "months": 97,
        "windows": 37
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 3,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 13.32,
            "n": 97,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -2.8,
            "n": 219,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 10.45,
            "n": 282,
            "months": 33
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 3,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 16.09,
            "n": 97,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.49,
            "n": 219,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 9.07,
            "n": 282,
            "months": 33
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 3,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 16.31,
            "n": 97,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -1.54,
            "n": 217,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 9.39,
            "n": 281,
            "months": 33
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.pullback_35.126",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After doubling, then 35% below the peak, next 126 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock doubled from the entry close and then closed 35% below its highest close since entry: its return over the next 126 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 126 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 10.48,
        "low": -13.17,
        "high": 34.13
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 3,
          "months": 4,
          "windows": 2
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 23.05,
          "low": 2.64,
          "high": 43.47,
          "median": -1.84,
          "n": 97,
          "months": 27,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 2.01,
          "low": -11.99,
          "high": 16,
          "median": -14.23,
          "n": 219,
          "months": 33,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 12.49,
          "low": -6.65,
          "high": 31.63,
          "median": -5.98,
          "n": 184,
          "months": 30,
          "windows": 6
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 10.73,
        "low": 0.61,
        "high": 20.85,
        "median": -8.49,
        "n": 503,
        "months": 94,
        "windows": 19
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 3,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 19.83,
            "n": 97,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.87,
            "n": 219,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 12.79,
            "n": 184,
            "months": 30
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 3,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 23.11,
            "n": 97,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 2.06,
            "n": 219,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 12.16,
            "n": 184,
            "months": 30
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 3,
            "months": 4
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": 22.94,
            "n": 96,
            "months": 27
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 2.07,
            "n": 217,
            "months": 33
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 12.53,
            "n": 184,
            "months": 30
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.pullback_50.63",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After doubling, then 50% below the peak, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock doubled from the entry close and then closed 50% below its highest close since entry: its return over the next 63 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": false,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 4.46,
        "low": -11.53,
        "high": 20.45
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 2,
          "months": 3,
          "windows": 2
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 39,
          "months": 19,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -0.23,
          "low": -12.16,
          "high": 11.71,
          "median": -6,
          "n": 116,
          "months": 26,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 4.23,
          "low": -6.5,
          "high": 14.97,
          "median": 1.6,
          "n": 123,
          "months": 29,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 5.02,
        "low": -1.81,
        "high": 11.86,
        "median": -1.52,
        "n": 281,
        "months": 77,
        "windows": 37
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 2,
            "months": 3
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 39,
            "months": 19
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 2.17,
            "n": 116,
            "months": 26
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 4.37,
            "n": 123,
            "months": 29
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 2,
            "months": 3
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 39,
            "months": 19
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -0.04,
            "n": 116,
            "months": 26
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 3.83,
            "n": 123,
            "months": 29
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 2,
            "months": 3
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 39,
            "months": 19
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 0.21,
            "n": 115,
            "months": 26
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 4.25,
            "n": 123,
            "months": 29
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "path.pullback_50.126",
      "family": "path",
      "title": "After doubling, then 50% below the peak, next 126 sessions",
      "what": "Strong stocks (within 15% of their 252-session high and in the top fifth by 126-session return) bought every 21 sessions; the first session within a year that the stock doubled from the entry close and then closed 50% below its highest close since entry: its return over the next 126 sessions against the average liquid stock.",
      "method": "One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns of every stock inside its holding window, less the benchmark's. Liquid: median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions at least $5M, close at least $3 a share and 252 sessions of history, all at the close before the entry. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average stock of the same liquidity tier, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat (daily moves under 0.5%, as when pinned to a deal price). Strong stocks are bought on each of 21 staggered monthly calendars; each calendar's events are deduplicated on their own, its monthly means are taken, and the calendars are averaged month by month (n is per calendar), so no single buying day decides the result.",
      "unit": "% over 126 sessions",
      "benchmark": "average liquid stock",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 1.64,
        "low": -26.99,
        "high": 30.27
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 2,
          "months": 3,
          "windows": 2
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": null,
          "n": 39,
          "months": 19,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 2.07,
          "low": -20.43,
          "high": 24.57,
          "median": -17.98,
          "n": 116,
          "months": 26,
          "windows": 7
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 3.71,
          "low": -14.15,
          "high": 21.56,
          "median": 6.13,
          "n": 87,
          "months": 26,
          "windows": 6
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 5.77,
        "low": -6.72,
        "high": 18.27,
        "median": -8.36,
        "n": 245,
        "months": 74,
        "windows": 19
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 2,
            "months": 3
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 39,
            "months": 19
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 3.35,
            "n": 116,
            "months": 26
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 6.35,
            "n": 86,
            "months": 26
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 2,
            "months": 3
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 39,
            "months": 19
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 2.23,
            "n": 116,
            "months": 26
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 2.53,
            "n": 87,
            "months": 26
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 2,
            "months": 3
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": null,
            "n": 39,
            "months": 19
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": 2.37,
            "n": 115,
            "months": 26
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": 3.71,
            "n": 87,
            "months": 26
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "liquidity.mean_not_median.63",
      "family": "liquidity",
      "title": "Liquid on the mean but not the median, next 63 sessions",
      "what": "Stocks whose dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions averages at least $5M a day while its median is below $5M (a few heavy days carry them over the floor): their return over the next 63 sessions against the S&P 500.",
      "method": "The stocks in that state at the close before the entry (close at least $3 a share, 252 sessions of history). One event per stock per 63 sessions; events averaged within the calendar month, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily returns inside each holding window. A stock that stops trading keeps its last close; returns capped at +1000%. Checked with entry at the next close, against the average $5-20M stock, and without names that stopped trading or traded flat.",
      "unit": "% over 63 sessions",
      "benchmark": "S&P 500",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": true,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": -6.48,
        "low": -13.63,
        "high": 0.67
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -1.08,
          "low": -5.11,
          "high": 2.94,
          "median": -2.75,
          "n": 1076,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -1.69,
          "low": -5.12,
          "high": 1.74,
          "median": -4.4,
          "n": 3593,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -6.97,
          "low": -12.6,
          "high": -1.33,
          "median": -8.87,
          "n": 4624,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -13.45,
          "low": -17.88,
          "high": -9.03,
          "median": -11.5,
          "n": 4151,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -6.72,
        "low": -9.25,
        "high": -4.2,
        "median": -7.44,
        "n": 13444,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39
      },
      "checks": {
        "next_close": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -1.06,
            "n": 1075,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -1.45,
            "n": 3589,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -6.67,
            "n": 4622,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -13.04,
            "n": 4141,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "same_tier": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.12,
            "n": 1076,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -1.22,
            "n": 3593,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -4.63,
            "n": 4624,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -12.4,
            "n": 4151,
            "months": 34
          }
        ],
        "without_stopped_or_flat": [
          {
            "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
            "mean": -0.89,
            "n": 1026,
            "months": 10
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
            "mean": -1.71,
            "n": 3478,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
            "mean": -7.26,
            "n": 4429,
            "months": 36
          },
          {
            "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
            "mean": -13.38,
            "n": 4012,
            "months": 34
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "most_traded.30",
      "family": "most_traded",
      "title": "The 30 most-traded stocks against the S&P 500",
      "what": "The 30 liquid stocks with the highest median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions, equal weight, held 63 sessions, against the S&P 500.",
      "method": "Every session from 2017, the equal-weight return over the next 63 sessions (log growth) minus the S&P 500's, times four for a year; sessions averaged within the calendar month; the uncertainty from the daily changes of the books' log values. Liquid as for the event tests; a stopped stock keeps its last close.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "S&P 500",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 14.97,
        "low": -3.22,
        "high": 33.16
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 6.87,
          "low": -1.65,
          "high": 15.39,
          "median": 7.3,
          "n": 210,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 25.87,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 19
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 11.1,
          "low": 2.83,
          "high": 19.38,
          "median": 11.8,
          "n": 755,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 23.11,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 12.01
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -6.47,
          "low": -18.07,
          "high": 5.13,
          "median": -0.55,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 2.85,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 9.32
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 8.5,
          "low": -5.57,
          "high": 22.58,
          "median": 8.36,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 27.18,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 18.68
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 4.52,
        "low": -1.61,
        "high": 10.65,
        "median": 6.23,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39,
        "stocks_pct_a_year": 18.25,
        "sp500_pct_a_year": 13.73
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "most_traded.50",
      "family": "most_traded",
      "title": "The 50 most-traded stocks against the S&P 500",
      "what": "The 50 liquid stocks with the highest median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions, equal weight, held 63 sessions, against the S&P 500.",
      "method": "Every session from 2017, the equal-weight return over the next 63 sessions (log growth) minus the S&P 500's, times four for a year; sessions averaged within the calendar month; the uncertainty from the daily changes of the books' log values. Liquid as for the event tests; a stopped stock keeps its last close.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "S&P 500",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 13.36,
        "low": -1.08,
        "high": 27.8
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 1.84,
          "low": -4.43,
          "high": 8.11,
          "median": 1.56,
          "n": 210,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 20.84,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 19
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 8.62,
          "low": 2.84,
          "high": 14.4,
          "median": 7,
          "n": 755,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 20.63,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 12.01
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -6.76,
          "low": -15.87,
          "high": 2.34,
          "median": -4.05,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 2.56,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 9.32
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 6.6,
          "low": -4.65,
          "high": 17.85,
          "median": 7.63,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 25.28,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 18.68
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 2.67,
        "low": -2.11,
        "high": 7.45,
        "median": 3.63,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39,
        "stocks_pct_a_year": 16.4,
        "sp500_pct_a_year": 13.73
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "most_traded.100",
      "family": "most_traded",
      "title": "The 100 most-traded stocks against the S&P 500",
      "what": "The 100 liquid stocks with the highest median dollar volume over the prior 63 sessions, equal weight, held 63 sessions, against the S&P 500.",
      "method": "Every session from 2017, the equal-weight return over the next 63 sessions (log growth) minus the S&P 500's, times four for a year; sessions averaged within the calendar month; the uncertainty from the daily changes of the books' log values. Liquid as for the event tests; a stopped stock keeps its last close.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "S&P 500",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 9.57,
        "low": -2.08,
        "high": 21.22
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 1.35,
          "low": -2.96,
          "high": 5.65,
          "median": 1.56,
          "n": 210,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 20.35,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 19
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": 5.1,
          "low": 0.78,
          "high": 9.42,
          "median": 3.48,
          "n": 755,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 17.1,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 12.01
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -6.8,
          "low": -14.8,
          "high": 1.2,
          "median": -4.64,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 2.52,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 9.32
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": 2.77,
          "low": -5.75,
          "high": 11.28,
          "median": 3.26,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "stocks_pct_a_year": 21.45,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 18.68
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": 0.4,
        "low": -3.45,
        "high": 4.24,
        "median": 1.53,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39,
        "stocks_pct_a_year": 14.13,
        "sp500_pct_a_year": 13.73
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "sizing.inverse_volatility",
      "family": "sizing",
      "title": "Sizing by inverse volatility against equal weight",
      "what": "Random 15-name books of strong stocks held 63 sessions: weighting by inverse volatility of the prior 63 sessions' daily returns (at most 25% a name) against equal weight, in growth a year.",
      "method": "Every session, 10 random books from the strong stocks (seed 11); the difference in mean log growth over 63 sessions, times four; sessions averaged by calendar month; the uncertainty from the daily changes of the books' log values. A stopped stock keeps its last close.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "equal weight",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": -2.13,
        "low": -6.45,
        "high": 2.19
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -1.37,
          "low": -4.35,
          "high": 1.6,
          "median": -1.19,
          "n": 210,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4,
          "equal_pct_a_year": 18.56,
          "inverse_volatility_pct_a_year": 17.18,
          "inverse_variance_pct_a_year": 16.26
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -1.6,
          "low": -3.65,
          "high": 0.46,
          "median": -1.44,
          "n": 755,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "equal_pct_a_year": 11.52,
          "inverse_volatility_pct_a_year": 9.92,
          "inverse_variance_pct_a_year": 8.77
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 1.27,
          "low": -1.75,
          "high": 4.29,
          "median": 0.65,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "equal_pct_a_year": 1.98,
          "inverse_volatility_pct_a_year": 3.25,
          "inverse_variance_pct_a_year": 4.05
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -0.86,
          "low": -3.96,
          "high": 2.24,
          "median": -1.03,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "equal_pct_a_year": 16.94,
          "inverse_volatility_pct_a_year": 16.08,
          "inverse_variance_pct_a_year": 15.02
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.47,
        "low": -1.95,
        "high": 1.01,
        "median": -0.73,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39,
        "equal_pct_a_year": 10.75,
        "inverse_volatility_pct_a_year": 10.28,
        "inverse_variance_pct_a_year": 9.78
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "sizing.inverse_variance",
      "family": "sizing",
      "title": "Sizing by inverse variance against equal weight",
      "what": "Random 15-name books of strong stocks held 63 sessions: weighting by inverse variance of the prior 63 sessions' daily returns (at most 25% a name) against equal weight, in growth a year.",
      "method": "Every session, 10 random books from the strong stocks (seed 11); the difference in mean log growth over 63 sessions, times four; sessions averaged by calendar month; the uncertainty from the daily changes of the books' log values. A stopped stock keeps its last close.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "equal weight",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": -3.99,
        "low": -11.22,
        "high": 3.24
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -2.3,
          "low": -7.27,
          "high": 2.67,
          "median": -2.04,
          "n": 210,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4,
          "equal_pct_a_year": 18.56,
          "inverse_volatility_pct_a_year": 17.18,
          "inverse_variance_pct_a_year": 16.26
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -2.75,
          "low": -6.22,
          "high": 0.72,
          "median": -2.56,
          "n": 755,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "equal_pct_a_year": 11.52,
          "inverse_volatility_pct_a_year": 9.92,
          "inverse_variance_pct_a_year": 8.77
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 2.07,
          "low": -2.96,
          "high": 7.09,
          "median": 1.22,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "equal_pct_a_year": 1.98,
          "inverse_volatility_pct_a_year": 3.25,
          "inverse_variance_pct_a_year": 4.05
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -1.92,
          "low": -7.14,
          "high": 3.31,
          "median": -2,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "equal_pct_a_year": 16.94,
          "inverse_volatility_pct_a_year": 16.08,
          "inverse_variance_pct_a_year": 15.02
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -0.97,
        "low": -3.46,
        "high": 1.51,
        "median": -1.32,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39,
        "equal_pct_a_year": 10.75,
        "inverse_volatility_pct_a_year": 10.28,
        "inverse_variance_pct_a_year": 9.78
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "cash.below_200_day",
      "family": "cash",
      "title": "Cash while the S&P 500 is below its 200-day average",
      "what": "A book of strong stocks re-formed every 21 sessions, held in cash on each session after the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day average, against the same book always invested.",
      "method": "The book is 21 staggered tranches, each re-formed every 21 sessions on its own day, so no single re-formation day decides the result. Daily returns, equal weight (a stopped stock at its last close), cash earns nothing; the difference in log growth by calendar month, times twelve for a year, months weighted equally; the uncertainty from the daily differences. Growth a year of each, the S&P 500's, the share of sessions invested and the number of switches by period.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "always invested",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": -4.94,
        "low": -17.7,
        "high": 7.82
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": 0,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "median": 0,
          "n": 10,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 10,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 19.4,
          "always_invested_pct_a_year": 19,
          "signal_pct_a_year": 19,
          "invested_share_pct": 100,
          "switches": 0
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -0.65,
          "low": -18.2,
          "high": 16.91,
          "median": 0,
          "n": 36,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 10.2,
          "always_invested_pct_a_year": 5.1,
          "signal_pct_a_year": 4.4,
          "invested_share_pct": 83,
          "switches": 20
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": 0.96,
          "low": -9.65,
          "high": 11.57,
          "median": 0,
          "n": 36,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 10.2,
          "always_invested_pct_a_year": 6.1,
          "signal_pct_a_year": 7.2,
          "invested_share_pct": 71,
          "switches": 23
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -3.98,
          "low": -11.13,
          "high": 3.17,
          "median": 0,
          "n": 36,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 36,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 23.4,
          "always_invested_pct_a_year": 22.5,
          "signal_pct_a_year": 17.7,
          "invested_share_pct": 93,
          "switches": 7
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -1.12,
        "low": -7.71,
        "high": 5.47,
        "median": 0,
        "n": 118,
        "months": 118,
        "windows": 118,
        "sp500_pct_a_year": 14.9,
        "always_invested_pct_a_year": 11.6,
        "signal_pct_a_year": 10.4,
        "invested_share_pct": 84,
        "switches": 50
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "breadth.top20",
      "family": "breadth",
      "title": "Ranking skill and breadth for a 20-name book",
      "what": "A 20-name book picked by a signal with a given rank correlation (skill) to the next 63 sessions' returns, choosing among 40, 400 or all liquid stocks, in growth a year. The measured line is the no-skill book (all ranked) against the S&P 500; the table shows what each level of skill adds.",
      "method": "Every session, 8 paired draws (seed 21): one noise vector and one draw of names serve every skill and breadth. Signal = skill × normal score of the realised rank + noise. Mean log growth times four. The book is re-selected every 63 sessions, so the table is an upper bound; the table is a description, the line's uncertainty comes from the no-skill books' daily changes.",
      "unit": "points a year",
      "benchmark": "S&P 500",
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "deciding": [
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "Nov 2023–Oct 2026"
      ],
      "variants_agree": null,
      "change": {
        "from": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
        "to": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
        "gap": 3.49,
        "low": -10.13,
        "high": 17.11
      },
      "results": [
        {
          "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "from": "2017-01",
          "to": "2017-10",
          "mean": -3.74,
          "low": -12.42,
          "high": 4.95,
          "median": -4.03,
          "n": 210,
          "months": 10,
          "windows": 4,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 19,
          "book_pct_a_year": 15.27
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "from": "2017-11",
          "to": "2020-10",
          "mean": -3.42,
          "low": -13.12,
          "high": 6.29,
          "median": -4.56,
          "n": 755,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 12.01,
          "book_pct_a_year": 8.59
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "from": "2020-11",
          "to": "2023-10",
          "mean": -7.51,
          "low": -17.41,
          "high": 2.4,
          "median": -7.37,
          "n": 754,
          "months": 36,
          "windows": 13,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 9.32,
          "book_pct_a_year": 1.81
        },
        {
          "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "from": "2023-11",
          "to": "2026-10",
          "mean": -4.02,
          "low": -13.42,
          "high": 5.38,
          "median": -4.08,
          "n": 699,
          "months": 34,
          "windows": 12,
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 18.68,
          "book_pct_a_year": 14.66
        }
      ],
      "whole": {
        "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2026",
        "from": "2017-01",
        "to": "2026-10",
        "mean": -4.89,
        "low": -10.12,
        "high": 0.34,
        "median": -4.83,
        "n": 2418,
        "months": 116,
        "windows": 39,
        "sp500_pct_a_year": 13.73,
        "book_pct_a_year": 8.84
      },
      "tables": {
        "Jan 2017–Oct 2026": {
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 13.73,
          "rows": [
            {
              "skill": 0,
              "top10_of_40": 7.96,
              "top10_of_400": 7.92,
              "top10_of_all": 8.45,
              "top20_of_40": 8.44,
              "top20_of_400": 8.49,
              "top20_of_all": 8.84,
              "top30_of_40": 8.55,
              "top30_of_400": 8.67,
              "top30_of_all": 8.83
            },
            {
              "skill": 0.02,
              "top10_of_40": 9.93,
              "top10_of_400": 11.6,
              "top10_of_all": 13.15,
              "top20_of_40": 9.71,
              "top20_of_400": 11.76,
              "top20_of_all": 13.17,
              "top30_of_40": 9.21,
              "top30_of_400": 11.66,
              "top30_of_all": 12.94
            },
            {
              "skill": 0.03,
              "top10_of_40": 10.9,
              "top10_of_400": 13.45,
              "top10_of_all": 15.49,
              "top20_of_40": 10.35,
              "top20_of_400": 13.45,
              "top20_of_all": 15.28,
              "top30_of_40": 9.53,
              "top30_of_400": 13.18,
              "top30_of_all": 15
            },
            {
              "skill": 0.04,
              "top10_of_40": 11.84,
              "top10_of_400": 15.35,
              "top10_of_all": 17.82,
              "top20_of_40": 10.97,
              "top20_of_400": 15.09,
              "top20_of_all": 17.51,
              "top30_of_40": 9.86,
              "top30_of_400": 14.69,
              "top30_of_all": 17.1
            },
            {
              "skill": 0.05,
              "top10_of_40": 12.83,
              "top10_of_400": 17.15,
              "top10_of_all": 20.25,
              "top20_of_40": 11.59,
              "top20_of_400": 16.72,
              "top20_of_all": 19.62,
              "top30_of_40": 10.19,
              "top30_of_400": 16.22,
              "top30_of_all": 19.22
            }
          ]
        },
        "Nov 2020–Oct 2026": {
          "sp500_pct_a_year": 13.86,
          "rows": [
            {
              "skill": 0,
              "top10_of_40": 6.87,
              "top10_of_400": 6.78,
              "top10_of_all": 7.56,
              "top20_of_40": 7.36,
              "top20_of_400": 7.31,
              "top20_of_all": 8.05,
              "top30_of_40": 7.47,
              "top30_of_400": 7.52,
              "top30_of_all": 7.91
            },
            {
              "skill": 0.02,
              "top10_of_40": 8.98,
              "top10_of_400": 10.67,
              "top10_of_all": 12.56,
              "top20_of_40": 8.68,
              "top20_of_400": 10.81,
              "top20_of_all": 12.57,
              "top30_of_40": 8.16,
              "top30_of_400": 10.69,
              "top30_of_all": 12.27
            },
            {
              "skill": 0.03,
              "top10_of_40": 10.04,
              "top10_of_400": 12.67,
              "top10_of_all": 15.03,
              "top20_of_40": 9.36,
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          ]
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          "state": "too little data to tell",
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            {
              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
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            {
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          ]
        },
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          "state": "too little data to tell",
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            {
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              "to": "2017-10",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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        }
      }
    },
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      "tier": "$100M-1B",
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          "state": "too little data to tell",
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              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
              "from": "2017-01",
              "to": "2017-10",
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            {
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              "to": "2020-10",
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              "from": "2020-11",
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              "mean": 0.26,
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            {
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          ]
        },
        "63": {
          "state": "too little data to tell",
          "results": [
            {
              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
              "from": "2017-01",
              "to": "2017-10",
              "mean": -1.59,
              "low": -3.48,
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            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
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            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
              "from": "2020-11",
              "to": "2023-10",
              "mean": 0.4,
              "low": -1.21,
              "high": 2.01,
              "median": -0.09,
              "n": 1932,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 13
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
              "from": "2023-11",
              "to": "2026-10",
              "mean": 0.64,
              "low": -0.79,
              "high": 2.07,
              "median": -1.53,
              "n": 2384,
              "months": 34,
              "windows": 12
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "tier": "$100M-1B",
      "event": "neither",
      "horizons": {
        "21": {
          "state": "too little data to tell",
          "results": [
            {
              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
              "from": "2017-01",
              "to": "2017-10",
              "mean": -0.8,
              "low": -1.83,
              "high": 0.23,
              "median": 0.63,
              "n": 1488,
              "months": 10,
              "windows": 11
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
              "from": "2017-11",
              "to": "2020-10",
              "mean": 0.2,
              "low": -0.33,
              "high": 0.72,
              "median": -0.03,
              "n": 5307,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 37
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
              "from": "2020-11",
              "to": "2023-10",
              "mean": -0.05,
              "low": -0.55,
              "high": 0.44,
              "median": 0.09,
              "n": 6752,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 37
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
              "from": "2023-11",
              "to": "2026-10",
              "mean": -0.1,
              "low": -0.49,
              "high": 0.3,
              "median": -0.62,
              "n": 8148,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 36
            }
          ]
        },
        "63": {
          "state": "too little data to tell",
          "results": [
            {
              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
              "from": "2017-01",
              "to": "2017-10",
              "mean": -0.28,
              "low": -2.19,
              "high": 1.63,
              "median": 1.35,
              "n": 1488,
              "months": 10,
              "windows": 4
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
              "from": "2017-11",
              "to": "2020-10",
              "mean": 0.48,
              "low": -0.83,
              "high": 1.78,
              "median": -0.19,
              "n": 5307,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 13
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
              "from": "2020-11",
              "to": "2023-10",
              "mean": 0.28,
              "low": -0.8,
              "high": 1.36,
              "median": 0.27,
              "n": 6752,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 13
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
              "from": "2023-11",
              "to": "2026-10",
              "mean": 0.17,
              "low": -0.9,
              "high": 1.23,
              "median": -1.56,
              "n": 7548,
              "months": 34,
              "windows": 12
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "tier": "over $1B",
      "event": "jump",
      "horizons": {
        "21": {
          "state": "too little data to tell",
          "results": [
            {
              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
              "from": "2017-01",
              "to": "2017-10",
              "mean": null,
              "low": null,
              "high": null,
              "median": null,
              "n": 5,
              "months": 6,
              "windows": 11
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
              "from": "2017-11",
              "to": "2020-10",
              "mean": 2.79,
              "low": 0.39,
              "high": 5.19,
              "median": 1.38,
              "n": 79,
              "months": 32,
              "windows": 37
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
              "from": "2020-11",
              "to": "2023-10",
              "mean": -0.1,
              "low": -2.28,
              "high": 2.09,
              "median": -0.56,
              "n": 132,
              "months": 34,
              "windows": 37
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
              "from": "2023-11",
              "to": "2026-10",
              "mean": 1.79,
              "low": -0.3,
              "high": 3.89,
              "median": 1.17,
              "n": 231,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 36
            }
          ]
        },
        "63": {
          "state": "too little data to tell",
          "results": [
            {
              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
              "from": "2017-01",
              "to": "2017-10",
              "mean": null,
              "low": null,
              "high": null,
              "median": null,
              "n": 5,
              "months": 6,
              "windows": 4
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
              "from": "2017-11",
              "to": "2020-10",
              "mean": 6.64,
              "low": 1.34,
              "high": 11.94,
              "median": 1.93,
              "n": 79,
              "months": 32,
              "windows": 13
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
              "from": "2020-11",
              "to": "2023-10",
              "mean": -0.62,
              "low": -4.85,
              "high": 3.6,
              "median": -0.69,
              "n": 132,
              "months": 34,
              "windows": 13
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
              "from": "2023-11",
              "to": "2026-10",
              "mean": 5.53,
              "low": 0.26,
              "high": 10.81,
              "median": -1.85,
              "n": 222,
              "months": 34,
              "windows": 12
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "tier": "over $1B",
      "event": "drop",
      "horizons": {
        "21": {
          "state": "too little data to tell",
          "results": [
            {
              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
              "from": "2017-01",
              "to": "2017-10",
              "mean": null,
              "low": null,
              "high": null,
              "median": null,
              "n": 5,
              "months": 4,
              "windows": 9
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
              "from": "2017-11",
              "to": "2020-10",
              "mean": 4.42,
              "low": 1.27,
              "high": 7.57,
              "median": 3.15,
              "n": 67,
              "months": 32,
              "windows": 37
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
              "from": "2020-11",
              "to": "2023-10",
              "mean": 0.76,
              "low": -0.96,
              "high": 2.48,
              "median": 0.09,
              "n": 123,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 37
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
              "from": "2023-11",
              "to": "2026-10",
              "mean": 0.25,
              "low": -1.74,
              "high": 2.25,
              "median": 0.47,
              "n": 222,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 36
            }
          ]
        },
        "63": {
          "state": "too little data to tell",
          "results": [
            {
              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
              "from": "2017-01",
              "to": "2017-10",
              "mean": null,
              "low": null,
              "high": null,
              "median": null,
              "n": 5,
              "months": 4,
              "windows": 4
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
              "from": "2017-11",
              "to": "2020-10",
              "mean": 9.5,
              "low": 2.62,
              "high": 16.38,
              "median": 4.68,
              "n": 67,
              "months": 32,
              "windows": 13
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
              "from": "2020-11",
              "to": "2023-10",
              "mean": -0.01,
              "low": -3.75,
              "high": 3.73,
              "median": -0.91,
              "n": 123,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 13
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
              "from": "2023-11",
              "to": "2026-10",
              "mean": 1.78,
              "low": -2.66,
              "high": 6.22,
              "median": 1.26,
              "n": 214,
              "months": 34,
              "windows": 12
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "tier": "over $1B",
      "event": "neither",
      "horizons": {
        "21": {
          "state": "too little data to tell",
          "results": [
            {
              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
              "from": "2017-01",
              "to": "2017-10",
              "mean": 4.82,
              "low": 0.76,
              "high": 8.88,
              "median": 3.11,
              "n": 42,
              "months": 9,
              "windows": 10
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
              "from": "2017-11",
              "to": "2020-10",
              "mean": 1.09,
              "low": -0.57,
              "high": 2.76,
              "median": -0.13,
              "n": 270,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 37
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
              "from": "2020-11",
              "to": "2023-10",
              "mean": 0.17,
              "low": -0.97,
              "high": 1.32,
              "median": -0.16,
              "n": 487,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 37
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
              "from": "2023-11",
              "to": "2026-10",
              "mean": 0.09,
              "low": -1.15,
              "high": 1.33,
              "median": -0.12,
              "n": 789,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 36
            }
          ]
        },
        "63": {
          "state": "too little data to tell",
          "results": [
            {
              "period": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
              "from": "2017-01",
              "to": "2017-10",
              "mean": 8.71,
              "low": 0.66,
              "high": 16.75,
              "median": 4.45,
              "n": 42,
              "months": 9,
              "windows": 4
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
              "from": "2017-11",
              "to": "2020-10",
              "mean": 3.65,
              "low": 0.2,
              "high": 7.1,
              "median": 1.04,
              "n": 270,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 13
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
              "from": "2020-11",
              "to": "2023-10",
              "mean": -0.44,
              "low": -3.26,
              "high": 2.37,
              "median": -0.5,
              "n": 487,
              "months": 36,
              "windows": 13
            },
            {
              "period": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
              "from": "2023-11",
              "to": "2026-10",
              "mean": 2.51,
              "low": -0.78,
              "high": 5.8,
              "median": -0.83,
              "n": 719,
              "months": 34,
              "windows": 12
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "situations_events": {
    "drop": "The stock's most recent such move in the last 5 sessions was a fall: a one-day fall of at least 4% against the S&P 500 that is also at least 3 times the stock's usual daily move against it (the standard deviation of the 63 sessions before, at least 31 of them on file).",
    "jump": "The stock's most recent such move in the last 5 sessions was a rise: a one-day rise of at least 4% against the S&P 500 that is also at least 3 times the stock's usual daily move against it (the standard deviation of the 63 sessions before, at least 31 of them on file).",
    "neither": "No one-day rise or fall of that size in the last 5 sessions."
  },
  "situations_tiers": {
    "$100M-1B": "Median dollar volume over the last 63 sessions of $100 million to $1 billion a day, read 5 sessions before the day measured (so a recent move never selects the stock), at a price of at least $3 a share.",
    "$20-100M": "Median dollar volume over the last 63 sessions of $20 million to $100 million a day, read 5 sessions before the day measured (so a recent move never selects the stock), at a price of at least $3 a share.",
    "$5-20M": "Median dollar volume over the last 63 sessions of $5 million to $20 million a day, read 5 sessions before the day measured (so a recent move never selects the stock), at a price of at least $3 a share.",
    "over $1B": "Median dollar volume over the last 63 sessions of $1 billion a day or more, read 5 sessions before the day measured (so a recent move never selects the stock), at a price of at least $3 a share."
  },
  "situations_method": "Formed every session on 5 staggered calendars: each liquid stock of the tier, with at least 252 sessions of prices, is sorted by its last 5 sessions into jump, drop or neither, bought at that close and held 21 or 63 sessions, against the average liquid stock bought the same close.",
  "studies": [
    {
      "id": "F1",
      "title": "Fresh-results screen, forward test",
      "hypothesis": "Companies whose filing passes the fresh-results screen beat the S&P 500 over the next 63 sessions by the +3.0% the in-sample history claims.",
      "registered_on": "2026-11-14",
      "amended": [
        {
          "on": "2026-11-14",
          "what": "Before any run, the precision rule was made stricter: a verdict is given only once the test would find an effect of the claimed size 80% of the time."
        }
      ],
      "data_from": "2026-11-16",
      "forward_only": true,
      "horizon_sessions": 63,
      "belief": {
        "size_pct": 3,
        "against": "the S&P 500",
        "source": "this project's own back-test of 2016 to 2026, in-sample and unconfirmed"
      },
      "state": "not run",
      "state_reason": null,
      "why_not_run": "It is tested only on filings from 16 November 2026 on, and none of them has had its 63 trading days yet.",
      "periods": []
    },
    {
      "id": "F2",
      "title": "Share dilution",
      "hypothesis": "Companies whose diluted share count rose most over a year trail the average stock of their sector and tier over the next 63 sessions.",
      "registered_on": "2026-11-14",
      "amended": [
        {
          "on": "2026-11-14",
          "what": "Before any run: the signal became each filing's own comparison of its diluted share count with the same period a year earlier, because companies do not file a fourth quarter; each stock is measured against the other stocks of its group, not a group that includes itself; and a verdict is given only once the test would find an effect of the claimed size 80% of the time."
        }
      ],
      "data_from": "2016-01-04",
      "forward_only": false,
      "horizon_sessions": 63,
      "belief": {
        "size_pct": -1,
        "against": "the other stocks of its sector and trading-volume tier",
        "source": "Fama and French (2008), 'Dissecting Anomalies', Journal of Finance 63(4), Table II"
      },
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "state_reason": "not yet precise enough",
      "periods": [
        {
          "label": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "role": "information",
          "mean": 0.68,
          "low": -2.3,
          "high": 3.65,
          "events": 428,
          "windows": 4,
          "mean_126": -0.75,
          "low_126": -5.57,
          "high_126": 4.07
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "role": "information",
          "mean": 3.52,
          "low": -0.98,
          "high": 8.03,
          "events": 1626,
          "windows": 13,
          "mean_126": 10.28,
          "low_126": -1.25,
          "high_126": 21.82
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "role": "deciding",
          "mean": -2.14,
          "low": -6.58,
          "high": 2.3,
          "events": 1974,
          "windows": 13,
          "mean_126": -6.25,
          "low_126": -12.92,
          "high_126": 0.43
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "role": "deciding",
          "mean": -3.14,
          "low": -8.99,
          "high": 2.7,
          "events": 2329,
          "windows": 12,
          "mean_126": -4.14,
          "low_126": -14.24,
          "high_126": 5.96
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F4",
      "title": "Gross profitability",
      "hypothesis": "Companies with the highest gross profit relative to their assets beat the other stocks of their sector and tier over the next 63 sessions.",
      "registered_on": "2026-11-15",
      "amended": [],
      "data_from": "2016-01-04",
      "forward_only": false,
      "horizon_sessions": 63,
      "belief": {
        "size_pct": 0.5,
        "against": "the other stocks of its sector and trading-volume tier",
        "source": "Novy-Marx (2013), 'The Other Side of Value: The Gross Profitability Premium', Journal of Financial Economics 108(1), Table 2"
      },
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "state_reason": "not yet precise enough",
      "periods": [
        {
          "label": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "role": "information",
          "mean": -3.85,
          "low": -11.25,
          "high": 3.55,
          "events": 102,
          "windows": 4,
          "mean_126": -6.88,
          "low_126": -16.98,
          "high_126": 3.21
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "role": "information",
          "mean": 2.85,
          "low": -1.43,
          "high": 7.14,
          "events": 288,
          "windows": 13,
          "mean_126": 1.49,
          "low_126": -10.19,
          "high_126": 13.17
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "role": "deciding",
          "mean": 1.61,
          "low": -1.74,
          "high": 4.95,
          "events": 364,
          "windows": 13,
          "mean_126": 0.9,
          "low_126": -4,
          "high_126": 5.8
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "role": "deciding",
          "mean": -4.69,
          "low": -8.84,
          "high": -0.55,
          "events": 348,
          "windows": 12,
          "mean_126": -7.89,
          "low_126": -15.32,
          "high_126": -0.46
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "I1",
      "title": "Insider purchases",
      "hypothesis": "Stocks whose officers or directors bought at least $100,000 on the open market within five sessions beat the average stock of their sector and tier over the next 63 sessions.",
      "registered_on": "2026-11-14",
      "amended": [
        {
          "on": "2026-11-14",
          "what": "Before any run: the reading of the rule was written down (which filings and purchases count, and that a purchase needs a price that matches that day's trading); each stock is measured against the other stocks of its group, not a group that includes itself; and a verdict is given only once the test would find an effect of the claimed size 80% of the time."
        }
      ],
      "data_from": "2016-01-04",
      "forward_only": false,
      "horizon_sessions": 63,
      "belief": {
        "size_pct": 1.1,
        "against": "the other stocks of its sector and trading-volume tier",
        "source": "Jeng, Metrick and Zeckhauser, 'Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading', Review of Economics and Statistics 85(2), 2003 (NBER Working Paper 6913, Table 5)"
      },
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "state_reason": "not yet precise enough",
      "periods": [
        {
          "label": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "role": "information",
          "mean": 0.34,
          "low": -1.47,
          "high": 2.14,
          "events": 489,
          "windows": 4,
          "mean_126": -0.11,
          "low_126": -2.76,
          "high_126": 2.53
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "role": "information",
          "mean": 0.19,
          "low": -1.23,
          "high": 1.61,
          "events": 2471,
          "windows": 13,
          "mean_126": 1.21,
          "low_126": -1.34,
          "high_126": 3.77
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "role": "deciding",
          "mean": 0.25,
          "low": -1.16,
          "high": 1.65,
          "events": 2196,
          "windows": 13,
          "mean_126": -0.54,
          "low_126": -2.65,
          "high_126": 1.57
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "role": "deciding",
          "mean": 0.49,
          "low": -0.95,
          "high": 1.93,
          "events": 2157,
          "windows": 12,
          "mean_126": 0.17,
          "low_126": -2.16,
          "high_126": 2.5
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "S1",
      "title": "Short interest",
      "hypothesis": "Stocks with the most days to cover trail the average stock of their tier over the next 63 sessions.",
      "registered_on": "2026-11-14",
      "amended": [
        {
          "on": "2026-11-14",
          "what": "Before any run: the reading of the rule was written down (how the most-shorted tenth is chosen, and that a figure counts only from the day it was published); each stock is measured against the other stocks of its group, not a group that includes itself; and a verdict is given only once the test would find an effect of the claimed size 80% of the time."
        }
      ],
      "data_from": "2016-01-04",
      "forward_only": false,
      "horizon_sessions": 63,
      "belief": {
        "size_pct": -0.8,
        "against": "the other stocks of its trading-volume tier",
        "source": "Hong, Li, Ni, Scheinkman and Yan (2015), 'Days to Cover and Stock Returns', NBER Working Paper 21166, Tables 3 and 4"
      },
      "state": "too little data to tell",
      "state_reason": "not yet precise enough",
      "periods": [
        {
          "label": "Jan 2017–Oct 2017",
          "role": "information",
          "mean": null,
          "low": null,
          "high": null,
          "events": 0,
          "windows": null,
          "mean_126": null,
          "low_126": null,
          "high_126": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2017–Oct 2020",
          "role": "information",
          "mean": 0.11,
          "low": -1.36,
          "high": 1.58,
          "events": 3069,
          "windows": 12,
          "mean_126": 0.46,
          "low_126": -2.45,
          "high_126": 3.36
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2020–Oct 2023",
          "role": "deciding",
          "mean": -2.24,
          "low": -3.75,
          "high": -0.73,
          "events": 4029,
          "windows": 13,
          "mean_126": -4.98,
          "low_126": -7.57,
          "high_126": -2.38
        },
        {
          "label": "Nov 2023–Oct 2026",
          "role": "deciding",
          "mean": 0.57,
          "low": -0.85,
          "high": 1.99,
          "events": 4000,
          "windows": 12,
          "mean_126": 0.28,
          "low_126": -2.53,
          "high_126": 3.08
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "built_at": "2026-11-15T12:25:54Z"
}