{ "name": "orbyd research calibration record", "description": "A dated, falsifiable record of orbyd's equity theses: each ships a published invalidation trigger and resolves in public as played-out or invalidated. Strictly non-monetary.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/track-record/", "generated": "2026-06-14T20:42:56.031Z", "last_content_update": "2026-06-14", "methodology": { "forecast": "Each conviction tier is a probabilistic claim, published in advance, that the thesis plays out.", "conviction_prob": { "SUPREME": 0.9, "HIGH": 0.75, "MEDIUM": 0.6, "LOW": 0.5 }, "scoring": "Brier score with the Murphy reliability/resolution/uncertainty decomposition; Brier skill score vs the base-rate forecast.", "outcomes": [ "played_out", "invalidated", "open" ] }, "open_commitments": [ { "ticker": "HOOD", "name": "Robinhood Markets, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HOOD/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 1, "invalidation_trigger": "revisit on a weekly close back above the 20-EMA (mid-$80s) reclaiming the ~$87-88 higher-low shelf, or a CLARITY Act floor-vote scheduling", "catalyst_date": "2026-04-29" }, { "ticker": "AVGO", "name": "Broadcom Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AVGO/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 2, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below the 2026-06-04/05 post-Q2 reaction low AND under the 20-EMA (sell-the-news becomes a structural de-rate); OR FY27 AI revenue guide later cut below $100B; OR a confirmed Google/Meta next-gen TPU socket loss to MRVL.", "catalyst_date": "2026-04-30" }, { "ticker": "META", "name": "Meta Platforms, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/META/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 1, "invalidation_trigger": "Confirmed multi-tens-of-$B equity raise priced at a discount that the tape sells (validates the capex-dilution bear case); OR weekly close below the 20-EMA on rising volume; OR Q2 (~2026-07-29) ad rev <+15% YoY vs Q4 +21%; OR custom-silicon theme (AVGO/MRVL) breaks into SATURATED.", "catalyst_date": "2026-04-30" }, { "ticker": "MSTR", "name": "Strategy Inc", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/MSTR/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 6, "invalidation_trigger": "Avoid-stance flips to long ONLY on all three: (1) BTC weekly close back above $84K, (2) an 8-K showing net BTC accumulation with zero sell-language, (3) MSTR weekly close above its 20-EMA with mNAV premium restored above issuance-accretive level. Until then every bounce is a falling-knife trap.", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-04" }, { "ticker": "PLTR", "name": "Palantir Technologies Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PLTR/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 1, "invalidation_trigger": "Failure to reclaim the 200-DMA within ~2-3 weeks plus a daily close below the early-June profit-taking swing low on >1.5x avg volume; OR a DIA ruling formally barring PLTR from the contract bid; OR Q2 US commercial growth decel <45% YoY (~Aug).", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-05" }, { "ticker": "AXTI", "name": "AXT Inc", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AXTI/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 2, "invalidation_trigger": "Lost the $90 base on 6/5 (-16% day, >$22M CEO insider sale); no buyable setup until a reclaim and hold above $100 on normalizing volume with a higher-low. Thesis breaks outright on Q2 (~7/29) revenue below the $34M guide, InP backlog falling QoQ from the $100M record, or denial of pending US InP export permits.", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-06" }, { "ticker": "CEG", "name": "Constellation Energy Corporation", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CEG/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 3, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $240 (200-DMA + post-Calpine gap fill); OR FERC rejects the Amazon/Susquehanna co-location (docket ER24-2172) or PJM slips Crane interconnection to 2031; OR 2026 adj-EPS guide cut below the reaffirmed $11 floor at Q2 (~2026-08-05).", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-06" }, { "ticker": "CRCL", "name": "Circle Internet Group, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRCL/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 7, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $77 (Compass Point magnet) on above-average volume; OR failure to reclaim $85 (Mizuho PT) within two weeks of the Mastercard catalyst, confirming sold-the-news; OR Q2'26 print shows no USDC settlement-volume traction from Mastercard/Nium.", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-06" }, { "ticker": "LITE", "name": "Lumentum Holdings Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/LITE/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 2, "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close below ~$840 forfeits the 2026-06-01 $866.97 signal-bar reclaim; OR a weekly close under the rising 20-EMA; OR a peer optical name (COHR/MRVL/AAOI) losing its 50-day while LITE diverges lower any one flips momentum to broken.", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-07" }, { "ticker": "COIN", "name": "Coinbase Global, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COIN/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 1, "invalidation_trigger": "Long re-arms only on BTC reclaim of ~$68K AND a COIN weekly close above $185 (back over the $180 bear anchor + 20-EMA), ideally with 3+ days of net-positive spot-ETF flows. BTC losing $60K opens $55K and a weekly close below the $142 Baird floor pushes the no-touch zone lower; do not buy oversold RSI alone.", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-07" }, { "ticker": "SMR", "name": "NuScale Power Corporation", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SMR/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 5, "invalidation_trigger": "South Korea $200B package finalizes with no named NuScale allocation, or a weekly close below the $8.85 52-wk low confirms the breakdown. Engage long only on a named SK capital figure (or binding offtake ≥$100/MWh for ≥250 MWe) PLUS a higher-low base reclaiming the 20-EMA (~$12).", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-07" }, { "ticker": "VST", "name": "Vistra Corp.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/VST/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 3, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $132 (May-2026 swing low) on >1.3x avg volume; OR failure to reclaim the 50-DMA (~$160-165) by end-July while CEG/TLN/NRG roll over; OR a hyperscaler Q2 capex guide-cut that re-rates the power complex lower.", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-07" }, { "ticker": "TSEM", "name": "Tower Semiconductor Ltd.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSEM/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 2, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close back below the ~$255 May-13 earnings-gap base (failed post-beat breakout — verify exact 20-EMA before sizing), or a Q2 guide walk-back / RF-SOI inventory-reset signal from QCOM/AVGO handset commentary.", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-12" }, { "ticker": "ASTS", "name": "AST SpaceMobile, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASTS/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 6, "invalidation_trigger": "retry at the next scheduled review", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13" }, { "ticker": "CRWV", "name": "CoreWeave, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CRWV/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 1, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below the ~$104 post-Q1 low (5/20) = base failed, opening the DA Davidson $100 → Bernstein $67 air pocket. Also invalidating: the $850M data-center junk bond prices wider than the 9.750% notes (credit refusing the recovery), or a second consecutive cohort guide-down at the Aug 11 print.", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13" }, { "ticker": "OKLO", "name": "Oklo Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OKLO/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 3, "invalidation_trigger": "Avoid-thesis flips bullish on a daily reclaim of the $66–$70 shelf (above Goldman $66 PT and the insider-sale range) on expanding volume with NO fresh 424B/ATM takedown. Otherwise a weekly close below the 2026-05-18 post-Q1 low, a 424B takedown off the $400M shelf, or any new insider Form 4 within 2 weeks of June 1 confirms the breakdown.", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13" }, { "ticker": "QBTS", "name": "D-Wave Quantum Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QBTS/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 6, "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close back below the ~$20 May-20 pre-announcement base = government-bet gap filled and failed. OR a new ATM/shelf take-down 8-K beyond the $100M Commerce issuance. OR QTUM ETF rolls over while the quantum cohort (IONQ/RGTI/QUBT) prints lower lows in unison (theme→DEAD).", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13" }, { "ticker": "RGTI", "name": "Rigetti Computing, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/RGTI/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 6, "invalidation_trigger": "Daily/weekly close below ~$20 (loses the long-term average and gives back the 2026-05-21 gov-stake gap), confirmed by QBTS failing to reclaim its 20-EMA, OR any ATM-issuance 8-K filed during strength (front-runs basket peak by 5–10 sessions).", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-13" }, { "ticker": "ASML", "name": "ASML Holding N.V.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ASML/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 2, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below the 20-week EMA (50% scale-out) or Q2 guide worse than −18% sequential confirming demand softening; on entry side, do not act until a 20/50-DMA pullback with RVOL>1.5 while not holding a correlated foundry name (TSM).", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-14" }, { "ticker": "NNE", "name": "Nano Nuclear Energy Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/NNE/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 1, "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close below $22 forfeits the post-NRC base and opens the $18.93 52-week low; alternatively any 424B/8-K disclosing the $400M ATM selling into rallies confirms catalysts are priced and dilution is absorbing demand.", "catalyst_date": "2026-05-14" }, { "ticker": "QUBT", "name": "Quantum Computing Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/QUBT/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 6, "invalidation_trigger": "Flip to interest only on a weekly close back above the ~$13–14 200-DMA driven by a QUBT-specific catalyst (TFLN customer 8-K, direct federal award, or sustained options skew). Hard skip on any 424B5/S-3 ATM filing or a weekly close losing the ~$10 shelf.", "catalyst_date": "2026-06-05" }, { "ticker": "PL", "name": "Planet Labs PBC", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/PL/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 1, "invalidation_trigger": "Holding below the lost ~$42 breakout shelf keeps the structure rolled-over (no-touch); a daily close below the ~$32 post-earnings low confirms the downtrend toward DEAD-theme treatment. A long only re-validates on a weekly reclaim of $42+ on volume with a higher low.", "catalyst_date": "2026-06-12" }, { "ticker": "BFLY", "name": "Butterfly Network, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/BFLY/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 7, "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close below the ~$4.40 breakout base (loses the rising 50-EMA structure off the $1.33 low), OR Q2 2026 revenue below the $27M guide floor / any cut to the $117–121M FY guide signals the June move was a fading retail spike, not a durable narrative leg.", "catalyst_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "ticker": "TSLA", "name": "Tesla, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSLA/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 7, "invalidation_trigger": "Confirmed pass if TSLA fails to reclaim its 2026-06-02 pre-gap high within ~2 weeks, the Austin Robotaxi fleet shrinks below 20 cars, or any FSD class-cert/HW3-retrofit ruling lands. Re-engage only on a reclaim of that high plus a dated TSLA-owned robotics accelerant (Optimus milestone or Robotaxi rides inflection on an expanding fleet).", "catalyst_date": "2026-06-18" }, { "ticker": "UUUU", "name": "Energy Fuels Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/UUUU/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 1, "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close below $14 extends the failed-spike downtrend; OR ASM scheme vote fails at the 2026-06-22 Perth meeting / deal terminated; OR uranium spot holds below $78/lb for two consecutive weeks; OR any bounce fails to reclaim and hold the lost ~$16-17 mid-May shelf (no higher low).", "catalyst_date": "2026-06-22" }, { "ticker": "SYRE", "name": "Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SYRE/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 5, "invalidation_trigger": "SPY002 \"mid-2026\" (~2026-06-30 est.) Part A induction shows weak within-patient efficacy or class-discordant TL1A safety; OR weekly close below the $62 April offering shelf on >2x 20d avg volume; OR Merck tulisokibart (ATLAS-UC) or Roche RVT-3101 prints superior anti-TL1A Phase 3 data.", "catalyst_date": "2026-06-30" }, { "ticker": "CCJ", "name": "Cameco Corporation", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CCJ/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 3, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $100 (loses the May ~$104 low), or uranium spot back under $80/lb, or a Q2 guide cut to the 19.5–21.5M lb range on the 2026-07-31 print. A second rejection at ~$115 confirms the lower high and voids the reclaim setup.", "catalyst_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "ticker": "IREN", "name": "IREN Limited", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IREN/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 4, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly or decisive daily close back below the 2026-05-26 breakout gap on >1.5x avg volume (failed breakout); OR disclosure of a Microsoft contract delay/descope; OR a new ATM equity raise >$300M priced below spot (signals the $3.65B IG facility was insufficient).", "catalyst_date": "2026-07-02" }, { "ticker": "AEHR", "name": "Aehr Test Systems", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AEHR/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 2, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below the $80 breakout shelf (opens $60-65 base), or Q4/FY26 print (~2026-07-07) that walks back the non-GAAP profitability guide or shows H2 bookings momentum stalling.", "catalyst_date": "2026-07-07" }, { "ticker": "HUT", "name": "Hut 8 Corp.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HUT/", "conviction": "HIGH", "archetype": 0, "invalidation_trigger": "a daily close below the published invalidation level", "catalyst_date": null }, { "ticker": "SHLS", "name": "Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SHLS/", "conviction": "HIGH", "archetype": 0, "invalidation_trigger": "a daily close below the published invalidation level", "catalyst_date": null }, { "ticker": "TSM", "name": "Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TSM/", "conviction": "HIGH", "archetype": 0, "invalidation_trigger": "a daily close below the published invalidation level", "catalyst_date": null }, { "ticker": "OKTA", "name": "Okta, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/OKTA/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 7, "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close below the post-earnings breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA (~$108), OR the cybersecurity/identity theme classifier flips off ACCELERATING, OR a peer (CRWD/PANW/ZS) guides demand down, OR a second sell-side downgrade follows Mizuho's 06-02 cut.", "catalyst_date": null }, { "ticker": "SNOW", "name": "Snowflake Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SNOW/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 1, "invalidation_trigger": "Daily close below the published invalidation level loses the post-earnings gap shelf / rising 20-EMA, fills the gap and breaks the inflection re-rate structure.", "catalyst_date": null }, { "ticker": "AMSC", "name": "American Superconductor Corporation", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AMSC/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 2, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below $40 (loses post-earnings shelf + April base pivot; opens path to the 200-DMA / $24.87 low). Also dead if the early-Aug Q1 print shows 12-mo backlog contracting from ~$280M or grid orders rolling over, or grid-power-transmission downgrades to SATURATED/DEAD.", "catalyst_date": null }, { "ticker": "IONQ", "name": "IonQ, Inc.", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IONQ/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 6, "invalidation_trigger": "Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (refresh — no live feed); Q2 revenue sequentially below Q1 $64.67M or any FY guide cut from $260–270M; or IONQ excluded from final $2B CHIPS equity-stake awards while peers are included (unwinds the 2026-05-26 pop).", "catalyst_date": null }, { "ticker": "SPCX", "name": "SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.)", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/SPCX/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 3, "invalidation_trigger": "A read on entry timing. Constructive only on a post-lock-up higher-low base that holds above the $135 offer on expanding volume, or a first public quarter that validates Starlink's margin trajectory. More cautious if the stock loses the $135 offer on heavy volume (the day-one pop unwound and the float overhang won), if Starlink growth decelerates, or if a Starship setback pushes the optionality further out. Structural second-order effect: with the real thing now public, the 'only way to own SpaceX' premium in the proxy basket (RKLB/ASTS/RDW/LUNR and DXYZ's NAV premium) should compress.", "catalyst_date": null } ], "resolved": [ { "ticker": "TRVI", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TRVI/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 5, "outcome": "played_out", "outcome_date": "2026-06-12", "regime_at_resolution": "RISK-ON", "invalidation_fired": false }, { "ticker": "DRTS", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/DRTS/", "conviction": "HIGH", "archetype": 5, "outcome": "played_out", "outcome_date": "2026-06-11", "regime_at_resolution": "RISK-ON", "invalidation_fired": false }, { "ticker": "AZZ", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AZZ/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 2, "outcome": "played_out", "outcome_date": "2026-06-11", "regime_at_resolution": "RISK-ON", "invalidation_fired": false }, { "ticker": "TWST", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/TWST/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 3, "outcome": "played_out", "outcome_date": "2026-06-11", "regime_at_resolution": "RISK-ON", "invalidation_fired": false }, { "ticker": "INDI", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INDI/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 2, "outcome": "invalidated", "outcome_date": "2026-06-10", "regime_at_resolution": "NEUTRAL", "invalidation_fired": true }, { "ticker": "APLD", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/APLD/", "conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": 4, "outcome": "played_out", "outcome_date": "2026-06-09", "regime_at_resolution": "NEUTRAL", "invalidation_fired": false }, { "ticker": "CLFD", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CLFD/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 6, "outcome": "invalidated", "outcome_date": "2026-06-09", "regime_at_resolution": "NEUTRAL", "invalidation_fired": true }, { "ticker": "INOD", "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/INOD/", "conviction": "LOW", "archetype": 2, "outcome": "invalidated", "outcome_date": "2026-06-09", "regime_at_resolution": "NEUTRAL", "invalidation_fired": true } ], "calibration": { "n": 8, "sample_confidence": "preliminary — too few resolutions to read much into yet", "sample_caution": true, "played_out": 5, "invalidated": 3, "play_out_rate": 0.625, "brier": 0.2153, "calibration_error": 0.0278, "resolution": 0.0469, "uncertainty": 0.2344, "refinement": 0.1875, "brier_skill_score": 0.0813, "reliability_by_conviction": [ { "conviction": "HIGH", "predicted": 0.75, "observed_rate": 1, "n": 1 }, { "conviction": "MEDIUM", "predicted": 0.6, "observed_rate": 1, "n": 1 }, { "conviction": "LOW", "predicted": 0.5, "observed_rate": 0.5, "n": 6 } ], "reliability_by_archetype": [ { "archetype": 2, "observed_rate": 0.3333, "n": 3 }, { "archetype": 3, "observed_rate": 1, "n": 1 }, { "archetype": 4, "observed_rate": 1, "n": 1 }, { "archetype": 5, "observed_rate": 1, "n": 2 }, { "archetype": 6, "observed_rate": 0, "n": 1 } ], "reliability_by_regime": [ { "regime": "RISK-ON", "observed_rate": 1, "n": 4 }, { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "observed_rate": 0.25, "n": 4 } ] } }