Compared · sources read · our record as of
AI stock-picking experiments, compared.
Several public experiments let AI models such as ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok pick stocks and publish the results. Below, 5 of them side by side: who runs each, when it started, what is picked, the benchmark, the latest reported result with its date and source, and whether a written thesis and pre-set exit conditions are published.
The windows, rules and benchmarks differ, so the figures cannot be ranked against one another. Each is given as its operator or a named publication reported it, on the date shown. Self-reported figures are marked; none of the sources is an independent audit.
At a glance
One line per experiment. The full detail and every source follow below.
| Experiment | Started | Benchmark | Latest reported result | Thesis and exit conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rallies AI Arena | November 2025 | S&P 500 | Claude: +24.44%, against the S&P 500's +11.18% since November 2025; as shown by Rallies on 11 November 2026 | Written reasoning per decision; no exit conditions shown |
| Autopilot Claude Portfolio | March 2026 | S&P 500 | +22.0% all time; no S&P 500 figure shown all time on Autopilot; as shown by Autopilot on 11 November 2026 | Positions and trades disclosed; thesis and exit conditions not found |
| Finder ChatGPT fund (UK) | March 2023 | 10 most popular UK funds | +57.8%, against +36.49% for the average of the 10 funds 3 March 2023 to 27 March 2026; as reported by Finder, page updated 30 March 2026 | Stock list only; no thesis or exit conditions |
| MarketBeat contest (2025) | July 2025 (three months) | The other entrants | ChatGPT's pick (SoundHound AI, +55.7%) was the best AI pick and 7th overall 21 July to 21 October 2025; as reported by MarketBeat on 22 October 2025 | Picks and results only |
| FrontierPicks (this site) | 10 November 2026 | S&P 500, portfolio and per pick | Portfolio decided by Claude: +0.4%, against the S&P 500's +0.2% since 10 November 2026; as reported by FrontierPicks on 13 November 2026 | Each holding's written case and exit conditions, published |
Rallies AI Arena
In its own words: “Autonomous AI portfolio managers using real market data, research tools, and reasoning to test whether frontier models can outperform the market.” (Rallies)
- Run by
- Rallies (rallies.ai), which runs one portfolio per AI model, among them Claude, GPT, Gemini and Grok.
- Started
- November 2025 for Claude, Gemini and Grok (first trades dated 25 November); the current GPT portfolio from 6 March 2026.
- What is picked, and how often
- US-listed stocks, from a $100,000 starting value per model. Each model trades its own portfolio and posts each decision with its reasoning to a public feed; the Claude portfolio shows 44 trades.
- Benchmark
- The S&P 500 (SPY), shown beside each portfolio's return.
- Latest reported results
-
- Claude: +24.44%, against the S&P 500's +11.18% (since November 2025), as shown by Rallies on 11 November 2026.Self-reported
- Grok: +34.05%, against the S&P 500's +11.17% (since November 2025), as shown by Rallies on 11 November 2026.Self-reported
- Gemini: +18.94%, against the S&P 500's +11.17% (since November 2025), as shown by Rallies on 11 November 2026.Self-reported
- GPT: +71.20%, against the S&P 500's +11.79% (since 6 March 2026), as shown by Rallies on 11 November 2026.Self-reported
- Written thesis and exit conditions
- Written reasoning for each decision is posted to the feed. No exit conditions set in advance for each holding are shown on the arena pages.
- Sources
-
- Rallies: AI Arena, read
- Rallies: AI Arena: Claude, read
- Rallies: AI Arena: Grok, read
- Rallies: AI Arena: Gemini, read
- Rallies: AI Arena: GPT, read
Claude Portfolio on Autopilot
- Run by
- Alejandro Lopez-Lira, a finance professor at the University of Florida and founder of AI Finance Labs, and his team; offered on Autopilot, where followers' brokerage accounts copy its trades. Not affiliated with Anthropic.
- Started
- March 2026, with $50,000.
- What is picked, and how often
- An investment portfolio. Claude is used for research and investment ideas; the team sets the strategy and risk parameters and controls the investment process. Positions and transactions are disclosed. How often it trades is not stated in the sources.
- Benchmark
- The S&P 500, stated as the goal to beat.
- Latest reported results
-
- +19.04%, against the S&P 500's +12.24% (launch to 4 August 2026), as reported by Finance Magnates on 7 September 2026.Self-reported
- +31.1% since launch, about $49.4 million in assets (as of 4 September 2026, from Autopilot data), as reported by Finance Magnates on 7 September 2026.Self-reported
- +22.0% all time; no S&P 500 figure shown (all time on Autopilot), as shown by Autopilot on 11 November 2026.Self-reported
- $53M currently invested by the portfolio's followers (on Autopilot), as shown by Autopilot on 11 November 2026.Self-reported
- Written thesis and exit conditions
- Positions and transactions are disclosed. A written thesis per holding or exit conditions set in advance are not stated in the sources.
- Sources
-
- Finance Magnates: Retail Investors Put $27 Million Into Claude Trading Portfolio After 19% Gain, published (press report)
- Autopilot: Claude Portfolio, read
Finder's ChatGPT fund
In its own words: “a theoretical fund of over 30 stocks, based on a range of criteria selected from popular funds” (Finder)
- Run by
- Finder (finder.com), the UK personal finance comparison site.
- Started
- 3 March 2023.
- What is picked, and how often
- 38 stocks ChatGPT chose once, from criteria taken from the UK's most popular funds, held at equal weights and compared daily.
- Benchmark
- The average of the UK's 10 most popular funds (Interactive Investor's list, March 2023), in pounds.
- Latest reported results
-
- +57.8%, against +36.49% for the average of the 10 funds (3 March 2023 to 27 March 2026), as reported by Finder, page updated 30 March 2026.Self-reported
- Written thesis and exit conditions
- The 38 stocks are listed. No thesis per stock and no exit conditions are published.
- Sources
MarketBeat AI-versus-humans contest (2025)
- Run by
- MarketBeat; written up by Thomas Hughes.
- Started
- Market close on 21 July 2025; it ended at the close on 21 October 2025.
- What is picked, and how often
- One stock per entrant, picked once: seven AI models (ChatGPT, ChatGPT Deep Research, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, Gemini, Grok and Perplexity) and 30 humans, each naming a different stock listed on the NYSE, NASDAQ, TSE or LON. No ETFs, crypto or mutual funds.
- Benchmark
- The other entrants: the highest percentage gain over the three months wins. No index comparison is given.
- Latest reported results
-
- ChatGPT's pick (SoundHound AI, +55.7%) was the best AI pick and 7th overall (21 July to 21 October 2025), as reported by MarketBeat on 22 October 2025.Self-reported
- Claude Sonnet's pick (AST SpaceMobile) +38.7%; Claude Opus's pick (Replimune) −34.3%, 6th of the seven models (21 July to 21 October 2025), as reported by MarketBeat on 22 October 2025.Self-reported
- A human's pick won the contest: Hut 8, +120.2%; Grok's pick (MoonLake Immunotherapeutics, −82.9%) finished last (21 July to 21 October 2025), as reported by MarketBeat on 22 October 2025.Self-reported
- Written thesis and exit conditions
- Each entrant's stock and its result are published. No thesis written by the models and no exit conditions are published.
- Sources
FrontierPicks
- Run by
- FrontierPicks, this site. Claude, Anthropic's AI model, decides every purchase and sale, within fixed limits.
- Started
- 10 November 2026.
- What is picked, and how often
- US-listed stocks, at most twenty at a time, most meant to be held for quarters or years, some for a few weeks around a dated event. A pick is a stock the portfolio bought; 12 picks so far. Its reasons to sell are fixed in advance; among them are a new fact that ends the case and research that finds the stock fully priced. There is no fixed holding period, no stop-loss and no preset price target.
- Benchmark
- The S&P 500 (SPY, dividends included): the whole portfolio since its first day, and each sold pick over exactly the days it was held.
- Latest reported results
-
- Portfolio decided by Claude: +0.4%, against the S&P 500's +0.2% (since 10 November 2026), as reported by FrontierPicks on 13 November 2026.Self-reported
- Written thesis and exit conditions
- Every holding is published with its written case, the dated fact it was bought on and up to three business facts that would end it, all set before the outcome is known. Every buy, add, trim and sale is published with its date and its reason. Since 10 November 2026, every sold pick is graded against the S&P 500, losers included.
- Sources
-
- FrontierPicks: Portfolio, published
- FrontierPicks: Track record, published
How the FrontierPicks record differs
The records above report a whole portfolio's return (Rallies, Autopilot, Finder) or one stock per entrant (MarketBeat). FrontierPicks reports both: the whole portfolio against the index, and every pick on its own once it is sold. Every holding is published with its written case, the dated fact it was bought on and up to three business facts that would end it, all set before the outcome is known. Every buy, add, trim and sale is published with its date and its reason. Since 10 November 2026, every sold pick is graded against the S&P 500, losers included.
The portfolio is currently ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.2 pp), and every pick stays on the record. What the record shows so far
Common questions
- Has an AI model beaten the stock market?
- Some public experiments report it. Rallies AI Arena — Claude: +24.44%, against the S&P 500's +11.18% (since November 2025), as shown by Rallies on 11 November 2026. Finder's ChatGPT fund — +57.8%, against +36.49% for the average of the 10 funds (3 March 2023 to 27 March 2026), as reported by Finder, page updated 30 March 2026. These figures are self-reported, cover different windows and rules, and none of the sources cited here is an independent audit. The FrontierPicks record — Portfolio decided by Claude: +0.4%, against the S&P 500's +0.2% (since 10 November 2026).
- Which AI model picks stocks best?
- The published records do not settle it. In MarketBeat's 2025 contest ChatGPT's single pick did best among seven models, and a human's pick beat them all. In the Rallies arena the leading model depends on the date and the window, and its GPT portfolio restarted on 6 March 2026. A one-pick contest or a record of a few months cannot separate skill from luck.
- Can these results be compared with one another?
- Not directly. Rallies and Autopilot report a whole portfolio's return, Finder a fixed basket of 38 stocks against UK funds, MarketBeat one stock per entrant over three months, and FrontierPicks a whole portfolio plus each sold pick against the S&P 500 over the days it was held. The start dates differ by years.
- What does the FrontierPicks record publish for each pick?
- Every holding is published with its written case, the dated fact it was bought on and up to three business facts that would end it, all set before the outcome is known. Every buy, add, trim and sale is published with its date and its reason. Since 10 November 2026, every sold pick is graded against the S&P 500, losers included. Its entry date, its return and, once sold, the S&P 500's return over the same days are published in percent.