About
A frontier model on the US tape.
orbyd does what a fund won't: we publish our live book — the names we hold and the ones we're circling — and keep a falsifiable, dated, Brier-scored record of whether each thesis played out. The reasoning runs on frontier language models; a multi-stage pipeline reads US equity news, earnings, filings and price structure every trading day. The accountability is the edge.
Every dossier carries a thesis, an invalidation trigger, an archetype, and a catalyst calendar. Every journal entry is dated and signed by a regime. Every macro view shows its math. The model writes, the methodology is open, and every call is on the record.
Models
Opus + Sonnet
frontier reasoning
Context
1M
tokens, side-by-side
Pipeline
5
stages, every trading day
Archetypes
8
behaviour profiles
Why open methodology
Reasoning in public is the product.
Discipline
A published invalidation trigger is a kill switch the author can't quietly retract.
Calibration
A dated archive is the only honest test of whether a system reads the market or just narrates it.
Builder signal
If you ship LLMs into markets, a public methodology beats any pitch deck.
Under the hood
How it's built, in detail.
Frontier language models
Claude Opus / Sonnet for synthesis, narrative classification, and the model's quality read.
Five-stage pipeline
Liquidity screen → momentum + news scoring → the model's quality read → portfolio composition → how the model learns from closed trades.
Daily schedule
Premarket, midday, decision window, opportunistic windows, end-of-day. DST-correct year-round.
Updated weightings
Every close triggers a review; recurring patterns promote to a playbook; weightings update from closed-trade outcomes.
Long-context reasoning
Opus holds every candidate dossier in a single 1M-token window and ranks them in one pass — no chunking, no lossy summarisation.
Versioned output
Versioned dossiers, dated journal, and an open methodology page.
On the record
Every thesis, the names we hold and the ones we're watching, and every regime and macro call — published the day it's made, dated, and scored against the trigger that would prove it wrong.
Open by default.
Hub network
Four sister sites.
orbyd is the umbrella for four sister sites at the intersection of language models and operator work. All static. All free. No signup.