The live book · 7 held · 36 circling
What we hold. What we're circling.
As of 2026-06-14, we hold 7 names and are circling 36 more on the watchlist — each with its thesis, archetype and the published trigger that would prove it wrong.
On the record
The names we hold, and the reasoning behind every one.
Most books are a logo wall published a quarter late, if at all. This one is live and reasoned — ticker, conviction, archetype, theme, thesis, and the exact condition that would prove each one wrong, published the day it's decided.
Every claim here is dated and falsifiable — see how each one gets scored in public.
Held · the book
7- HUTHIGH
Hut 8 Corp.
Invalidates if a daily close below the published invalidation level
Covered since - SHLSHIGH
Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.
industrial-power-aisolar-storage-decarbInvalidates if a daily close below the published invalidation level
Covered since - TSMHIGH
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
Invalidates if a daily close below the published invalidation level
Covered since - OKTAMEDIUM
Okta, Inc.
Identity-software momentum continuation: OKTA gapped to a 52-week high on a Q1 FY27 beat and FY27 guide raise (2026-05-29). Theme classifier still ACCELERATING (0.78), but the catalyst is now behind it the entire sell-side PT-raise cluster is dated 2026-05-29 and Mizuho already cut to Neutral (06-02). Setup is maturing, not fresh.
Invalidates if Daily close below the post-earnings breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA (~$108), OR the cybersecurity/identity theme classifier flips off ACCELERATING, OR a peer (CRWD/PANW/ZS) guides demand down, OR a second sell-side downgrade follows Mizuho's 06-02 cut.
Covered since - SNOWMEDIUM
Snowflake Inc.
A narrative accelerating on FUNDAMENTALS: Q1 FY27 product rev $1.33B +34% (re-accel from +30%), RPO +38%, FY27 guide raised to $5.84B, Cortex Code fastest-ramping product ever on the $200M Anthropic deal. Driver is theme acceleration the AI-enterprise-data cluster (HPE/MRVL/DELL) breaking out together, SNOW the cleanest software expression. The two prior avoids awaited the published invalidation level pullback that never came; price held near highs, and with the theme ACCELERATING deferring cluster-confirmed strength is the #1 leak so we fund it. MEDIUM not HIGH: next catalyst ~3 months out, volume light (0.63x).
Invalidates if Daily close below the published invalidation level loses the post-earnings gap shelf / rising 20-EMA, fills the gap and breaks the inflection re-rate structure.
Covered since - BFLYLOW
Butterfly Network, Inc.
AI point-of-care ultrasound narrative accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue +25% YoY ($26.5M), Butterfly Embedded chip-licensing +147%, first FDA-cleared blind-sweep AI tool, Compass AI and HomeCare commercializing through 2026. But the CBO sold ~$1.9M into the June social-velocity spike and price stalled below the $5.72 high fundamentals accelerating, the easy price gain likely already spent.
Invalidates if Daily close below the ~$4.40 breakout base (loses the rising 50-EMA structure off the $1.33 low), OR Q2 2026 revenue below the $27M guide floor / any cut to the $117–121M FY guide signals the June move was a fading retail spike, not a durable narrative leg.
Covered since catalyst in 4d - PLLOW
Planet Labs PBC
Record Q1 FY27 beat (6/4: rev $94.15M vs $89.85M est, adj EPS $(0.03) vs $(0.04), FY27 guide nudged to $425-441M) and the stock sold off, then sank again 6/5 as a $1.5B equity shelf was filed and the space cluster rolled over on SpaceX-IPO fatigue (Redwire/Momentus -20%). Theme SATURATED (UFO ETF $1B AUM). Strong fundamentals into broken, rolled-over price structure = value trap. No-touch until ~$42 reclaims and a base rebuilds.
Invalidates if Holding below the lost ~$42 breakout shelf keeps the structure rolled-over (no-touch); a daily close below the ~$32 post-earnings low confirms the downtrend toward DEAD-theme treatment. A long only re-validates on a weekly reclaim of $42+ on volume with a higher low.
Covered since catalyst due
Circling · the watchlist
Full rationale →- APLDMEDIUM
Applied Digital Corporation
BTC-miner→AI-infra pivot structurally de-risked: backlog ~$31B after Polaris Forge 3 ($7.5B/15yr take-or-pay, 300MW, capacity past 1.2GW) on top of CoreWeave 400MW (~$11B) and Polaris Forge 2 ($5B). Neocloud theme ACCELERATING; stock pulled back ~12% into the ~$40–44 20-EMA retest cleaner fresh-entry R:R than the late-May chase, but 26 Buy/0 Sell analyst crowding plus ATM dilution overhang cap conviction at MEDIUM.
- ASMLMEDIUM
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML is the cleanest second-derivative on the AI-capex super-cycle: EUV monopoly, CEO's "supply-limited market for quite a while" framing (5/20), High-NA first product data on logic AND DRAM later in 2026, JPM Overweight PT $2,200 (6/3). Theme is classifier-ACCELERATING with cluster confirmation and 7 rules fired (momentum top-25%, +19pp vs SPX 20d, near-52w-high structure, RSI 67.6, StockTwits +87%). ASML is the quality expression, not diversification vs TSM. Entry is a vertical near-52w-high, not the pullback-with-volume gate. Avoid: add AI-infra via a non-correlated name, or take ASML only on a 20/50-DMA pullback once the TSM cluster slot frees.
- ASTSMEDIUM
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
- AVGOMEDIUM
Broadcom Inc.
Q2 FY26 (2026-06-03) printed a monster $30B AI bookings vs $10.8B shipped (2.8x book-to-bill), $100B+ FY27 AI guide but AVGO sold the news (-12% on 2026-06-04) and kept falling into a rate-driven risk-off. Fundamentals ACCELERATING, tape CORRECTING; the buyable structure is the higher-low that holds, not the knife.
- IRENMEDIUM
IREN Limited
BTC-miner→AI-neocloud pivot resolved bull: 5-yr $3.4B Microsoft AI-cloud contract + $3.65B investment-grade GPU financing (closed 6/1) + Dell $1.6B Blackwell supply killed both the named-tenant and dilution gates. Theme ACCELERATING, PTs ramping to $79–$99. But 2026-06-04 printed the first red day after an extended, retail-hot run entry chases unless the 5/26 breakout gap holds.
- LITEMEDIUM
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Optical-AI picks-and-shovels: the post-print -8.45% sell-the-news is fully reversed LITE reclaimed its pre-print high on a 2026-06-01 +7% signal bar at $866.97, riding Nasdaq-100 inclusion and the 2026-06-02 AI-chip rally to fresh records. Theme ACCELERATING with cluster confirmation, but REX 2X ETF + photonics-ETF debut flag late-stage saturation, making this a late, crowded momentum entry after a ~1,000% year not a fat pitch.
- PLTRMEDIUM
Palantir Technologies Inc.
Commercial-flywheel re-acceleration (Google Cloud Marketplace + Dell on-prem + multi-vertical deal cadence into June) plus Trump 'trusted partner' 60-day clock but price was rejected at the 200-DMA (2026-06-03) on a MATURING, publicly-saturated theme. Wedbush reiterated $230 (2026-06-05). Trade the reclaim, not the rejection.
- SYREMEDIUM
Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.
Accelerating TL1A/I&I platform: SPY001 Part A de-risked UC (Robarts −9.2, p<0.0001); next leg is SPY002 "mid-2026" open-label Part A induction. Abivax obefazimod's Phase 3 malignancy signal (6/4) cleared an oral UC competitor and drove DB to $115 (Citi $97, Stifel $107) while stock ~$75 near 52wk-high $78.80. Binary-readout name into the print.
- TSEMMEDIUM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd.
Specialty-foundry AI-recovery confirmed by the 2026-05-13 Q1 beat (op profit ~doubled, GM up, Q2 guide raised, +17%) but the catalyst is fully digested, sell-side caught up ($300–335 PTs), news dry 3 weeks, theme registry narrowed to one tag. The ACCELERATING leg is maturing. No catalyst inside 30d; next binary is the Q2 print ~early Aug. Clean re-entry wants a higher-low / 20-EMA pullback, not a 2-month-early chase.
- AAOILOW
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
Optical ACCEL but secondary to cleaner COHR; +400% YTD parabola, $600M ATM supply ceiling, ETF/MEME-saturated, ~2.2x consensus PT. Peak-sentiment chase, no catalyst ~8wks WATCH.
- AEHRLOW
Aehr Test Systems
Pivot to hyperscale AI-ASIC package-level burn-in validated by a record $41M follow-on order and >$92M H2 FY26 bookings, but the tape is blowoff: +400%+ YTD, ATH $113.20 on the 2026-06-02 William Blair day, catalyst now passed, insiders selling. Ai-chip theme ACCELERATING, this expression SATURATED no low-risk entry at the highs; the $80-90 shelf retest into the ~July 7 Q4 print is the setup.
- AMDLOW
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
AI-chip ACCELERATING but (rank 34%), parabolic ATH chase, ARK persistent distribution dossier wants the ~$420 shelf retest.
- AMSCLOW
American Superconductor Corporation
Grid/advanced-conductor arms dealer to data-center power; backlog +40% YoY to ~$280M still accelerating, but the grid-power-transmission theme cooled to MATURING and the 2026-05-28 beat sold off on a soft Q1 margin guide ($0.17 vs $0.24 est). Price structure broken near $46.67 — wait for a weekly higher low above $40, don't chase the knife. Next binary ~early Aug.
- AXTILOW
AXT Inc
InP-substrate supplier to the AI optical-interconnect build (Q1 InP >50% of rev, record $100M backlog, Q2 guided to first profit in years). But the tape broke: -16% on 6/5 to ~$89 on a >$22M CEO insider sale, -38% off the 5/26 $143 ATH, losing the $90 base. Narrative intact, structure distributing stand aside until a higher-low base reforms above $100.
- CCJLOW
Cameco Corporation
Q1 confirmed both legs bullish (adj EBITDA C$509M, Westinghouse C$122M, FY guide held), but price won't follow: the early-June bounce stalled at $114 and reversed -6.6% to $106.44 on 2026-06-05 a lower high rejected at the ~$115 — reclaim zone while spot firmed near $86.5/lb. Theme MATURING, structure broken; probe-only until a real higher-low reclaim of $115 on volume.
- CEGLOW
Constellation Energy Corporation
Nuclear-baseload-for-AI is the crowded, mainstream leg of industrial-power-ai. Q1 beat (2026-05-11) closed -3%, Third Point fully exited, and an 11M-share secondary cleared at $281 (closed 2026-06-02). A FERC waiver (2026-06-02) pulled the TMI/Crane restart toward 2027 and popped CEG +2.6%, but that's the existing Microsoft deal advancing, not a new leg. No fresh entry near $281 without a pullback that holds or a new hyperscaler PPA.
- COINLOW
Coinbase Global, Inc.
1.5–2.5x BTC-beta proxy mid-bear-leg, not a dip: BTC sub-$63K, −26% on the month, 11-day ETF outflow streak (−$3.45B), MSTR now selling. COIN ~$174 (6/4) sliced under the $180 Piper anchor; Baird just cut its PT to $142 (6/5). Falling knife no long until BTC reclaims ~$68K and COIN closes >$185 weekly.
- CRCLLOW
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
Mastercard USDC settlement catalyst (6/03) printed and is being faded the same release added Ripple's RLUSD, commoditizing the 'only rail' thesis. Theme model flipped SATURATED (6/05) and Mizuho cut its PT to $85 the next day. A sold-the-news setup into a wall of neutral ratings and Tiger Global's full exit. Watch, do not chase.
- CRWVLOW
CoreWeave, Inc.
Post-Q1 beat-and-fade mean-reverted from the mid-$130s April peak to a ~$104 post-print low; now a basing/recovery attempt on fresh dated catalysts (Vera Rubin NVL72 first-validation 6/1, BNP Paribas Outperform $192 init 6/2, enlarged NVDA stake, 6/5 NBIS-comp upside spotlight). No print until Aug 11 = no binary overhang, but CRWV is still the theme laggard funded with junk-rated paper. Improving, not yet a clean breakout LOW probe.
- HOODLOW
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Crypto-financials SATURATED (0.15), faded its own PDT good news to a weak close ~47% below ATH, CLARITY odds cut 90%→60% broken structure, no base.
- INTCLOW
Intel Corporation
AI-chip theme but momentum LAGGARD (rank 88%), NVDA ARM-PC structural x86 threat + 108x P/E contested thesis, weakest cluster name.
- IONQLOW
IonQ, Inc.
Gov-capital re-rate (2026-05-21 CHIPS $2B + equity stakes) and the 2026-05-06 Q1 blowout are already priced; price tagged $63 on 2026-05-26 then rolled, -8% on 2026-06-05. Quantinuum's 2026-06-04 IPO faded market no longer paying up for quantum supply. MATURING/froth-deflating; current price is late-cycle digestion, not a discovery entry.
- METALOW
Meta Platforms, Inc.
Monetization-beyond-ads leg (Business Agent Platform, $200/mo Hatch) is still young, but the live tape flipped to capex-dilution fear: a 6/5 report of a tens-of-$B equity raise to fund AI infra triggered an investor dump ("drunken sailors") and CNBC-visible institutional trims. The CapEx-discipline thesis is under direct attack; theme MATURING into a crashing broad market.
- MSTRLOW
Strategy Inc
Flywheel reversed and now mechanically broken: with MSTR ~$125 the mNAV premium has collapsed below the level where issuance funds new BTC buys (Grayscale, 6/5), Strategy turned net seller (Saylor, 6/1), STRC is in a "death spiral" (Schiff, 6/2), and BTC cracked $60K (6/5). Avoid the knife no long until BTC bases and net accumulation resumes.
- MULOW
Micron Technology, Inc.
AI-memory thesis intact but price leg cracked (+200% over 200DMA, CEO sold $36M, Burry SOXX short) into FQ3 ~6/25 binary most-saturated memory leg, correlated dup.
- NBISLOW
Nebius Group N.V.
GPU-cloud ACCELERATING, theses resolved bullish but +100%/6wks parabolic on a short-squeeze, correlated to held HUT pullback-only, not a chase.
- NNELOW
Nano Nuclear Energy Inc.
May catalyst cluster (NRC acceptance 5/20, SMCI MOU, $13M STS buy) is spent and the nuclear-powers-AI theme cooled ACCELERATING→MATURING on 6/05; price lost the ~$24 post-NRC base into the low $20s (intraday $22.76) with a live $400M ATM armed. Faded leg, not a fresh entry re-entry only on a held higher low above ~$22–24 with the theme re-accelerating.
- OKLOLOW
Oklo Inc.
Nuclear-for-AI-power theme MATURING and in distribution. The 5/13 Q1 made OKLO a top-10 large-cap loser; the 5/26 DOE-plutonium bounce faded as CEO+COO sold ~$27M (10b5-1, surfaced 6/3, -12%), and shares broke to ~$58 by 6/5 under the $64.99–$70.45 insider range and Goldman's $66 PT. A live $400M ATM shelf is a standing dilution overhang. Broken structure, falling knife, no clean entry.
- QBTSLOW
D-Wave Quantum Inc.
Government-bet leg ($100M Commerce LOI, 5/21) is digested, not fresh. Sell-side caught up triple $40 PTs on 6/2 QTUM ETF at $5B, and Quantinuum's $14.3B IPO (6/3) faded on day one (6/4), adding quantum equity supply. Theme MATURING→saturating, a6 squeeze; fresh entry only on a pullback that holds the May-21 gap base, not a chase into the $40-PT prints.
- QUBTLOW
Quantum Computing Inc.
QNT's 2026-06-04 IPO faded same-day the feared flight-to-quality came and went without lifting QUBT, which stays excluded from the $2B CHIPS award and stuck below a failing 200-DMA near ~$11.34. MATURING theme, beta-only laggard, no accelerating leg to buy.
- RGTILOW
Rigetti Computing, Inc.
Gov-stake/CHIPS leg (2026-05-21) and Q1 print (2026-05-11) both spent; no RGTI-specific catalyst inside 30d. Stock held a $24 base but cracked to $20.39 on 2026-06-05 as basket leader QBTS rolls from ~$29 to the high-teens; theme MATURING→SATURATED (QTUM $5B AUM, Quantinuum $14.3B IPO, IBM $10B commoditizing the pure-play). Re-acceleration watch, not a fresh chase.
- SMRLOW
NuScale Power Corporation
Undated South Korea $200B-package binary (NuScale Tennessee/Uljin SMR; Doosan + Samsung C&T) is the only live leg, but the June 1–2 pop to ~$14 fully round-tripped and broke to a $10.50 close (6/5) on 45%-above-avg volume, pressing the $8.85 52-wk low. Fundamentals broken (Q1 rev $0.565M, −96%); Citi $7 / Goldman $9 at/below spot. Sell-the-rip into lows pass on the chase, watchlist a confirmed deal + base.
- SPCXLOW
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.)
SpaceX listed on Nasdaq as SPCX on 2026-06-12 at a $135 offer (a roughly $1.77T valuation and $75B raised, the largest IPO ever to price), and opened into the $150–165 band on demand several times its book. The asset underneath is generational: Starlink alone did $11.4B of 2025 revenue (about 61% of the company) at a $4.4B operating profit and 10M+ subscribers, with Starship reusability and the Artemis/Mars program as long-dated optionality on top. None of that is the question today. The question is price. A freshly-listed mega-cap up 15–25% on its offer on day one, on a thin float with insider lock-ups still ahead and a capital-hungry Starship build, is a name to map and stalk, not to chase on the opening pop. We want the post-IPO base, not the first-day tape.
- TSLALOW
Tesla, Inc.
Optimus/Robotaxi leg is contested and maturing, not accelerating. Robotaxi fleet shrank to 20 cars (6/4), Roadster demo slipped to August (6/5), and NVIDIA's open robotics platform plus Sam Altman are arming/attacking the humanoid moat. Offsetting: JPM perma-bear flip to Neutral $475 and TD Cowen $490 (6/4-6/5) sell-side catching up late after the 6/2 ~$75B gap-down. SpaceX IPO ~6/18 drains Musk-complex capital. Flat until structure reclaims the 6/2 gap.
- UUUULOW
Energy Fuels Inc.
Rare-earth ex-China leg drove a June 2 +12% spike to $19.75 on the first US mine-to-oxide Tb/Dy oxide, but it blew off: -13.5% June 5 to $15.03, a weekly close back under the $16 mid-May shelf. Fundamental narrative (ASM vote June 22, Q4-2026 commercial heavy-REE) intact; price structure broken. Failed-spike reversal no clean setup, probe only on a base reclaim above ~$17.
- VSTLOW
Vistra Corp.
Original anticipation thesis fully resolved bullish (Meta+AWS PPAs signed, 2026 EBITDA guide raised ~14% to $6.72-7.52B, PJM cleared at the $329 cap) but VST sold the news ~32% off the $219.81 high and the June-5 $148.76 close is failing back toward the $132.66 low. Catalyst spent, theme MATURING, no binary until ~Aug Q2. Trend-repair, not asymmetric don't bottom-fish; needs a 50-DMA reclaim (~$160-165) to re-engage.
Common questions
- Is this a real portfolio?
- It's our live book on a paper account — the names we hold and are researching, each with a thesis and a published invalidation trigger. The value is in whether the reasoning holds up; see the track record.
- What's the difference between held and the watchlist?
- Held names are on the book now; watchlist names are under active research — circling, not yet committed. Both are shown as names plus research attributes only.
- How often does the book change?
- The model re-reads its names every trading day, and the book here reflects the latest synced dossier status. Every name is dated.