The live book · 29 held · 156 lines armed
What we hold. And the line under it.
As of 18 September 2026, we hold 29 names, and the ledger below draws every open name against the exact level that would prove it wrong — 156 on the 18 September 2026 close.
Held = on the book now. Every other name here publishes a kill line and is drawn against it. The scored picks are counted on the scoreboard (open commitments), and the forward theme-bets on forecasts (open bets).
On the record
The names we hold, and the reasoning behind every one.
Most books are a logo wall published a quarter late, if at all. This one is live and reasoned — ticker, conviction, archetype, theme, thesis, and the exact condition that would prove each one wrong, published the day it's decided.
Every claim here is dated and falsifiable — see how each one gets scored in public.
Every open name against its line
11 names have closed through their lines on this close, and 4 are sitting on theirs. 156 of the 158 open names can be measured on the 18 September 2026 close; the rest publish no parseable level.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 18 September 2026; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Held · the book
2971 of the 229 names below already carry a verdict, and each is badged with it. A fired kill line ends the pick, not the coverage: the model keeps re-reading the name and the dossier keeps a current thesis, but the resolved pick is closed and counted on the scoreboard rather than on this board. How a pick resolves →
- HPEHIGH
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
Special situation AI datacenter infrastructureHewlett Packard Enterprise's AI and networking earnings transition supports a repricing thesis that requires intact growth guidance and the first weekly close above $54.44 after the 2026-09-30 Investor Day. A weekly close below $50 invalidates the price thesis.
Kill line A weekly close below $50 invalidates the earnings-repricing thesis; a reduction in management's fiscal 2027 revenue-growth framework of 13–17%, announced on 2026-09-02, separately breaks the fundamental premise.
Covered since catalyst in 10d - AMDMEDIUM
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memoryAdvanced Micro Devices’ Helios story depends on OpenAI bringing the platform online in the fourth quarter of 2026. Confirmed operation would settle the deployment case; a weekly close below $456 or activation postponed beyond that quarter would invalidate it.
Kill line A weekly close below $456 invalidates the September recovery by undercutting the 2026-09-03 market close of $456.16; independently, AMD or OpenAI confirming activation after Q4 2026, or no activation during that quarter, breaks the deployment timetable.
Covered since - IRDMMEDIUM
Iridium Communications Inc
Earnings inflection Space economyIridium Communications’ merger-discount thesis now has completed financing behind it; acquisition completion before a weekly close below $43.50 settles the case. Rocket Lab’s 2026-09-15 funding announcement advances the transaction, while the 2026-09-24 shareholder vote and regulatory approvals remain unresolved.
Kill line A weekly close below $43.50 invalidates the merger-premium structure near the market’s $43.52 pre-announcement close on 2026-06-26; formal termination, certified shareholder rejection or a final order blocking completion separately ends the acquisition thesis.
Covered since catalyst in 4d - MRCYMEDIUM
Mercury Systems Inc
Special situation Defense & aerospacePlayed out 24 July 2026 · still under coverage
Defense-electronics turnaround still re-rating on record bookings and a promised FCF turn, but the stock has given back ~20% from its $128.45 ATH and now chops near the analyst median (~$103) into a binary ~Aug 10-18 Q4/full-year print. Consolidation, not acceleration — the move is maturing into the report.
Kill line A weekly close below $94 loses the breakout base and rising 50-day shelf underpinning the advance. Secondary: a Q4 FY26 print (~2026-08-10 to 08-18) with free cash flow failing to turn positive or book-to-bill under 1.0, or defense-electronics flipping to saturated as KTOS/AVAV break their July lows.
Covered since catalyst in 4d - MUMEDIUM
Micron Technology, Inc.
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memoryMicron Technology's contracted memory revenue supports an earnings-durability thesis tested on 2026-09-30 against June's $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion revenue guidance and an 86% adjusted gross-margin benchmark. A weekly close below $958 invalidates the rebound before confirmation.
Kill line A weekly close below $958 breaks the rebound threshold published on 2026-09-10. Secondary failure: September 30 revenue below June's $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion guidance range or adjusted gross margin below 86%.
Covered since catalyst in 10d - NTAPMEDIUM
NetApp, Inc.
Special situation AI datacenter infrastructureNetApp's AI storage recovery requires delivery of September guidance before a weekly close below $164 breaks the thesis. Fiscal-Q2 revenue of at least $2.025 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of at least 67.0%, with the annual revenue outlook issued on 2026-09-02 maintained, would confirm the case.
Kill line A weekly close below $164 breaks the recovery thesis; fiscal-Q2 revenue below $2.025 billion, non-GAAP gross margin below 67.0%, or a reduction to the annual revenue outlook issued on 2026-09-02 independently invalidates the operating case.
Covered since catalyst in 9d - OKTAMEDIUM
Okta, Inc.
Defensive CybersecurityInvalidated 22 June 2026 · still under coverage
Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print — Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme accelerating, this leg maturing; open risk is paying up for a stretched 52-week-high tape.
Kill line A weekly close below $110 loses the post-earnings breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA; secondary confirmation would be a cRPO/billings/net-new-seat deceleration at the ~2026-08-26 print that resets the multiple.
Covered since catalyst in 2d - OSCRMEDIUM
Oscar Health, Inc.
Earnings inflection Managed care & health servicesOscar Health's higher earnings outlook and quantified 2027 pricing support a post-Investor-Day rerating. A weekly close above $32.76 before a weekly close below $29.83 would complete the price-confirmation test; the September 18, 2026 close of $32.13 leaves it unresolved.
Kill line A weekly close below $29.83 breaks the post-August 6, 2026 earnings structure. Before price confirmation, reduced 2026 operating-earnings guidance below $600 million or a medical loss ratio forecast above 82.0% also ends the case.
Covered since - RXOMEDIUM
RXO, Inc.
Compounder Freight & logisticsCyclical industrialsInvalidated 31 July 2026 · still under coverage
Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground — bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to consensus; the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print (adj EBITDA guide $27–37M vs $6M Q1) is the binary the whole re-rate discounts.
Kill line A weekly close below $24 loses the May–June breakout shelf and consolidation base; secondary breaks are Q2 adjusted EBITDA (~2026-08-05) printing below the $27–37M guide floor, or the RXO Curve spot index rolling over.
Covered since - SIMOMEDIUM
Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memorySilicon Motion's enterprise-storage expansion needs third-quarter 2026 revenue of at least $519 million to validate the recovery before a weekly close below $230 breaks it. September 15 supply and customer-ramp commentary supports the story, but reported sales settle it.
Kill line A weekly close below $230 breaks the recovery structure beneath the August 13, 2026 shelf at $238.51 and September 3 session low near $231.51. Reported third-quarter 2026 revenue below management's July 30 guidance floor of $519 million independently defeats the operating case.
Covered since catalyst in 2d - SNDKMEDIUM
Sandisk Corporation
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memorySandisk’s contracted-revenue story has regained its post-Investor Day price level, leaving fiscal Q1 2027 delivery as the unresolved test. Revenue of at least $10.3 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of at least 83% would complete the case before a weekly close below $1400 invalidates it.
Kill line A weekly close below $1400 ends the August recovery thesis, retaining the research threshold published on 2026-08-30; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue below $10.3 billion or non-GAAP gross margin below 83% separately breaks the operating case.
Covered since catalyst in 10d - TXGMEDIUM
10x Genomics, Inc.
Special situation Medtech & diagnostics10x Genomics' Atera recovery now needs deliveries and revenue confirmation after clearing its earlier price hurdle. Approximately 40 second-half 2026 shipments and full-year revenue of $610–630 million would substantiate the case before a weekly close below $58.57 invalidates the structure.
Kill line A weekly close below $58.57 breaks the August shelf retained in the September 11, 2026 analysis; deferral of the disclosed second-half Atera shipment plan into 2027 would separately undermine the operating case.
Covered since catalyst in 4d - XMTRMEDIUM
Xometry, Inc.
Theme leader AI datacenter infrastructureXometry's AI manufacturing thesis requires enterprise adoption to deliver its August 4 guidance before a weekly close below $85. Third-quarter revenue of at least $234 million and adjusted EBITDA of at least $16 million, with the 33–34% full-year revenue-growth outlook maintained, would confirm the case.
Kill line A weekly close below $85 breaks the June 2, 2026 public-offering reference; third-quarter revenue below $234 million, adjusted EBITDA below $16 million or a reduction in the August 4 full-year revenue-growth outlook also rejects the operating case.
Covered since - ARCBLOW
ArcBest Corporation
Special situation Freight & logisticsCyclical industrialsArcBest’s cost-reduction rebound failed its published price condition at the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $128.73. Third-quarter results still test recurring savings and preservation of the second-quarter 90.8% adjusted Asset-Based operating ratio, but cannot undo that invalidation.
Kill line A weekly close below $134.45 invalidates the published rebound thesis; this condition was met by the $128.73 close on 2026-09-18. A Q3 2026 adjusted Asset-Based operating ratio above 90.8% would separately fail the margin-preservation test.
Covered since catalyst in 11d - ATEXLOW
Anterix Inc.
Defensive Industrial power & gridAnterix’s utility-spectrum conversion thesis failed its published price test when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $76.99 breached $85.31. A new utility agreement with disclosed payments and a weekly recovery above $85.31 would support a replacement case.
Kill line A weekly close below $85.31 invalidates the published spectrum-conversion thesis; the 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $76.99 has already satisfied this condition.
Covered since catalyst in 2d - CNCLOW
Centene Corporation
Earnings inflection Managed care & health servicesCentene's margin-repair case requires sustained earnings guidance and a weekly close above $68.72 by its 2026-10-27 results. September's reaffirmation supports the earnings leg, but a weekly close below $65 or withdrawal or reduction of fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance above $4.80 invalidates the case.
Kill line A weekly close below $65 ends the September continuation thesis. Withdrawal or reduction of fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance above $4.80 independently breaks the fundamental case; failure to record a weekly close above $68.72 by 2026-10-27 ends the time-bounded thesis.
Covered since - DAVELOW
Dave Inc.
Compounder Fintech & consumer creditDave Inc.'s growth-and-credit-quality recovery case is invalidated by the September 18, 2026 weekly close of $337.82 below its published $358 boundary. JPMorgan's September 15 initiation adds favorable coverage but does not reverse that outcome.
Kill line A weekly close below $358 invalidates the published recovery case; the September 18, 2026 close of $337.82 has met that condition. A reduction below the August 5 full-year operating-revenue guidance floor of $725 million separately breaks the operating premise.
Covered since catalyst in 4d - DELLLOW
Dell Technologies Inc.
Cyclical recovery AI datacenter infrastructureDell Technologies’ AI-server thesis requires roughly $19 billion of next-quarter revenue and infrastructure operating margin of at least 15.0%. The next quarterly results settle that case; September 21, 2026 index inclusion does not resolve the delivery or margin test.
Kill line A weekly close below $456 breaks the pre-results structure beneath the August 31, 2026 close of $456.01. A reduction in the roughly $19 billion next-quarter AI-server revenue outlook, a reported shortfall, or ISG operating margin below 15.0% independently defeats the operating thesis.
Covered since catalyst in 1d - HNGELOW
Hinge Health, Inc.
Compounder Managed care & health servicesPlayed out 18 June 2026 · still under coverage
Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating insider selling mark a late, distribution-prone phase, with no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print.
Kill line A weekly close below $58 forfeits the June breakout above the $62.18 prior ATH and drops the tape back into its nine-month range; secondary breaks are the digital-MSK theme rolling to saturated or the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print landing under the raised $200–202M revenue floor.
Covered since - HUMLOW
Humana Inc.
Compounder Managed care & health servicesHumana's Medicare Advantage margin-recovery story faces a renewed price test: an adjusted daily close above $409.80 before a daily close below $383. The September 1, 2026 earnings reaffirmation supports stability, while October Star Ratings test the quality-bonus premise.
Kill line A daily close below $383 invalidates the renewed continuation thesis at the price boundary retained from the September 11, 2026 dossier; a reduction in the September 1 full-year adjusted EPS floor of $9.00 would separately break the earnings-stability premise.
Covered since catalyst in 18d - JBHTLOW
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
Compounder Freight & logisticsCyclical industrialsJ.B. Hunt’s freight-recovery thesis was invalidated by the 2026-09-18 weekly close below $265. The estimated 2026-10-15 report tests whether intermodal pricing and profit growth can support a separate recovery case after September’s cost warning.
Kill line A weekly close below $265 invalidates the published freight-recovery structure. This condition was met on 2026-09-18, when the adjusted market close was $234.25; the original thesis has already failed its price test.
Covered since catalyst in 25d - LSTRLOW
Landstar System, Inc.
Defensive Freight & logisticsLandstar System's truckload repricing must produce further earnings improvement. The 2026-10-27 results settle the case if truck revenue per load grows year over year and earnings per share exceed the second quarter's $1.44 before a weekly close below $167.
Kill line A weekly close below $167 breaks the published price structure. Separately, no year-over-year growth in truck revenue per load in the 2026-10-27 results invalidates the operating repricing thesis.
Covered since catalyst in 23d - MRVLLOW
Marvell Technology, Inc.
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memoryInvalidated 10 July 2026 · still under coverage
Custom-silicon ASIC royalty story intact, but the AI-semi theme is mid-correction — chips posted their worst month vs software on record (7/17) with money rotating into energy. Buying a falling sector with no confirmed higher low is the trap; the setup needs the $250-255 May shelf to hold before re-engaging.
Kill line a daily close that breaches the risk threshold loses the May breakout shelf and rising weekly 20-EMA. Secondary breaks: Broadcom disclosing incremental custom-ASIC share at AWS Trainium or Microsoft MAIA, a Google/Marvell TPU walk-back, or hyperscalers guiding FY27 capex flat-to-down on the late-July prints.
Covered since catalyst in 16d - SEZLLOW
Sezzle Inc.
Compounder Fintech & consumer creditSezzle's profitable-growth recovery thesis requires a daily close above $129.87 before a weekly close below $114 invalidates it. The 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $116.55 lost the August shelf again, reversing the intermediate repair described on September 11.
Kill line A weekly close below $114 invalidates the recovery thesis by undercutting the 2026-09-01 closing low of $114.52. The 2026-09-18 close of $116.55 has lost the August shelf but has not breached this condition.
Covered since - SNXLOW
TD SYNNEX Corporation
Theme leader AI datacenter infrastructureTD SYNNEX's Hyve expansion supports an AI hardware earnings story, tested by revenue above $19.0 billion and adjusted diluted EPS above $4.75 on 2026-09-24. A weekly close below $255 invalidates the September price structure; stronger prices have not yet supplied earnings confirmation.
Kill line A weekly close below $255 invalidates the September price structure. Separately, fiscal Q3 adjusted diluted EPS below management's $4.25 guidance floor in the 2026-09-24 results breaks the earnings-transmission thesis.
Covered since catalyst in 4d - STXLOW
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memoryPlayed out 31 July 2026 · still under coverage
Maturing AI-storage supercycle with sell-side still chasing: Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight $1,100 (7/10) and Citi Street-high $1,240 (7/13). But the DRAM ETF is down ~30% and Seagate's Q4 FY26 print ~2026-07-22 is a binary about two trading days out — a late, crowded name gated by earnings.
Kill line A weekly close below $780 (loses the June breakout base and the low end of raised sell-side targets); a Q4 FY26 guide (~2026-07-22) that walks back nearline pricing or exabyte growth would confirm the theme flipping to saturated.
Covered since catalyst in 10d - UMCLOW
United Microelectronic Corp.
Special situation Semi foundry & equipmentInvalidated 7 August 2026 · still under coverage
Silicon-photonics pivot re-rated the ADR ~3x, but the July blowoff to $28.96 round-tripped -26% to $21.25 in days while sell-side finally upgraded (Macquarie Outperform 2026-07-14) — late-stage distribution behaviour. The 2026-07-29 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the leg resumes or the re-rate unwinds.
Kill line A weekly close below $19.00 takes out the June breakout shelf and confirms the $28.96 July high as the cycle top; secondarily, a Q2 print on 2026-07-29 that meets revenue but compresses gross margin, showing the mature-node price war reasserting under an AI headline.
Covered since catalyst in 16d - WDCLOW
Western Digital Corporation
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memoryInvalidated 6 August 2026 · still under coverage
The 29% bounce off the 2026-07-28 low stalled: WDC closed $527.22 on 2026-08-03, −3.23% on a day its sector rose 0.58%, back under a rising 50-day at $562.65. Consensus (~$3.69B / $3.31–$3.35) still sits above the company's own $3.65B ±$100M / $3.25 ±$0.15 guide, so the 2026-08-05 print — 16.8% implied — is the binary.
Kill line A daily close below $462 surrenders the 2026-07-28/29 closing floor ($462.04–$463.51) and re-opens the $422.11 spike low. Secondary: the 2026-08-05 fiscal Q4 print landing at or under the $3.65B / $3.25 guide midpoints, or a September quarter not guided up sequentially against Seagate's ~$4.1B bar.
Covered since - XPOLOW
XPO, Inc.
Compounder Freight & logisticsCyclical industrialsXPO, Inc.'s shipment-and-margin thesis failed its price test when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $174.25 breached $185. The 2026-10-29 results still test shipment growth and management's guidance for an adjusted less-than-truckload operating ratio below 81%.
Kill line A weekly close below $185 invalidates the September price thesis; the 2026-09-18 close of $174.25 has met that condition. Separately, a Q3 2026 adjusted less-than-truckload operating ratio of 81% or higher would fail management's 2026-07-30 guidance.
Covered since catalyst in 11d
Under research
Browse by theme →A name is under research when a theme the model is currently producing carries it, or when the model's own conviction still stakes a claim on it — recomputed every theme run, not maintained by hand. 200 names qualify today; the full library holds 942. The ledger above draws every open name that publishes a line, held or not.
Common questions
- Is this a real portfolio?
- It's our live book on a paper account — the names we hold and are researching, each with a thesis and a published kill line. The value is in whether the reasoning holds up; see the scoreboard.
- What else is on this page besides the held names?
- Every open name that publishes a kill line is drawn on the ledger. A name under research carries no position — it carries a dated thesis and the level that would prove it wrong. The full library is browsable by theme and conviction.
- How does a name get onto this page?
- It is derived, not curated. Every trading day the model rebuilds its theme clusters; a name inside a current theme — or one whose conviction the model still stakes — is under research, and a name that stops meeting either for two weeks comes off. Held names come from the account itself, not from the themes.
- How often does the book change?
- The 61 names the model holds, has just exited, or that sit in a theme it is currently calling accelerating are re-read every trading day — every one of them was read in the current session. The wider 881-name coverage universe cycles behind them: its median name was last read 0 sessions ago, and no dossier is more than 8 sessions old. The board here reflects the latest synced dossier status, and every name is dated, so the cadence is checkable name by name.
- Why do some names show a resolved pick?
- Because a fired kill line ends the pick, not the coverage. When a thesis is invalidated or plays out it is dated, scored and kept on the scoreboard — and the model carries on re-reading the name, so the dossier keeps a current thesis and the name stays on this board with its verdict badged.