What we hold. What we're circling.

Five straight up sessions took HPE to a $53.22 close on 2026-08-07 with the 2026-08-04 gap floor at $50.24 still untested; Trefis put the five-day move at +19.8% against +5.6% for the S&P 500, so this leg is no longer pure sector beta. Forward P/E 13.79 versus 49.66 trailing. The still-unconfirmed ~2026-09-02 Q3 print against the $11.5–12.1B / $0.88–0.93 guide is the binary.

Invalidates if A daily close below $50.24 fills the 2026-08-04 gap and negates the break-and-extend leg ($48.19 returns price inside the July range). Secondary: the ~2026-09-02 Q3 FY26 print landing revenue beneath the guided $11.5–12.1B, or 2026-08-11 Supermicro and 2026-08-26 NVIDIA passing without HPE holding the gap floor.

Post-print floor held: the 2026-08-05 undercut to $353.69 closed green on CVS's Aetna guide raise, and 2026-08-07 closed $385.00 (+4.84%), back above the 50-day of $374.23 and the highest close since 07-28. Morgan Stanley's 08-05 upgrade retired the $249 bear target, but the ≥3% 2028 MA margin claim stays unquantified for 2027 and no company-dated financial event is confirmed inside 30 days.

Invalidates if A daily close below $353 takes out the 2026-08-05 low of $353.69 and the 2026-07-29 print-day low of $355.81, making the reclaim a failed reversal; a weekly close below $327 unwinds the leg off the 2026-06-03 base close of $327.54. Secondary: the ~October 2026 CMS Star Ratings leaving 4-star-plus enrollment near the 20% of the 2026 ratings.

Defense-electronics turnaround still re-rating on record bookings and a promised FCF turn, but the stock has given back ~20% from its $128.45 ATH and now chops near the analyst median (~$103) into a binary ~Aug 10-18 Q4/full-year print. Consolidation, not acceleration — the move is maturing into the report.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $94 loses the breakout base and rising 50-day shelf underpinning the advance. Secondary: a Q4 FY26 print (~2026-08-10 to 08-18) with free cash flow failing to turn positive or book-to-bill under 1.0, or defense-electronics flipping to saturated as KTOS/AVAV break their July lows.

The 2026-08-03 divergence extended: MU closed $892.67 on 2026-08-04, +21.8% over four sessions, and Counterpoint put Q2 DRAM share at Micron 25% versus SK Hynix 26%. Price remains under a falling 50-day near $958 with no confirmed base; SanDisk's 2026-08-05 print and Micron's 2026-08-10 KeyBanc appearance are the nearest reads.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $737 takes out the 2026-07-29 capitulation low ($739.00 close / $737.88 intraday) from which the four-session rebound to $892.67 was built, leaving no identified cycle low. Secondary: Commerce clearing CXMT DRAM into US-market products, ending the three-supplier structure the ~86% margin guide rests on.

Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print — Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme ACCELERATING, this leg maturing; open risk is paying up for a stretched 52-week-high tape.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $110 loses the post-earnings breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA; secondary confirmation would be a cRPO/billings/net-new-seat deceleration at the ~2026-08-26 print that resets the multiple.

Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground — bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to consensus; the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print (adj EBITDA guide $27–37M vs $6M Q1) is the binary the whole re-rate discounts.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $24 loses the May–June breakout shelf and consolidation base; secondary breaks are Q2 adjusted EBITDA (~2026-08-05) printing below the $27–37M guide floor, or the RXO Curve spot index rolling over.

Controller-mix decoupling got its first hard datapoint on 2026-08-06 — SIMO +8.42% to $267.43 while Western Digital fell 16% and SanDisk 11% on beat-but-guide-light prints — then gave most of it back on 08-07 (-4.23% to $256.12, $18.87 off the high, thinnest volume of the run). Six sessions after a beat-and-raise the ADS sits $1.02 above the 07-30 reaction close; the 50-day at $286.82 is unreclaimed.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $235 breaks the floor tested at $235.11 on 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-03 and at $238.51 on 2026-08-06, reopening the unfilled gap toward the $209.68 pre-print close. Secondary: the 50-day at $286.82 left unreclaimed while the complex sells memory beats as it did 2026-08-06.

Q2 on 2026-08-04 cleared every self-set number — revenue $229.3M (+41%), marketplace +45%, Adj EBITDA $14.1M — and the new CEO raised FY2026 growth to 33–34% from 27–28%. Price took three sessions to agree, closing $93.15 on 08-07 back above the $90.65 50-day, still under the $106.08 July high.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $85 forfeits the 2026-06-02 secondary shelf priced at $85.00 and the entire post-print re-rate; secondary condition is Q3 marketplace growth landing under the ~33% guided on 2026-08-04, or the new 33–34% FY2026 frame being cut.

The 2026-08-04 bounce failed: ARCB lost the $136 shelf on a 2026-08-06 close of $135.25 and printed a post-print low of $134.75 on 08-07, while three open-market director sales — the first of 2026 — executed at $138.71–$144.85 on 08-04 and 08-06. Brent's rebound to $83.55 defers the fuel-surcharge unwind. No company checkpoint before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $134.75 forfeits the post-print base between the 2026-07-29 low of $135.98 and the 2026-08-07 low, and dates the 2026-06-12 high of $176.69 as the top; secondary break if ATA July tonnage (~2026-08-18) prints a third consecutive year-over-year decline.

Q1 FY27 (2026-07-29) beat, but Q2 royalty growth was guided to ~13% from the 22% delivered, on memory-driven handset weakness. The 2026-08-04 +17.36% snapback to $280.56 lifted price above six of nine published post-print targets and to within 1.7% of the $285.33 consensus average. SoftBank, the controlling holder, reports 2026-08-06.

Invalidates if A daily close below $239 gives back the entire 2026-08-04 advance and loses the $239.06-$241.54 post-print base. Secondary: Nvidia's 2026-08-26 print carrying hyperscaler capex-digestion language, or Q2 FY27 (~2026-10-28) royalty growth landing at or under the ~13% guide.

The 2026-08-04 spectrum re-rating gap has largely round-tripped: $106.35 close, then $99.41, $100.32 and $99.26 through 2026-08-07, heaviest volume on the down day. The 1.0M-share dilution vote passed on 2026-08-04; the 2026-08-11 Q1 print, first disclosure since 2026-06-10, is the binary left.

Invalidates if A daily close below $95.65 completes the 2026-08-04 gap fill that the 2026-08-05 low of $95.74 stopped nine cents short of, returning price into the late-July range whose closes ran $88.20–$93.76; secondary, the 2026-08-11 print passing with no June-quarter spectrum sale agreement disclosed and no use of the $226.7M repurchase authorisation.

Post-print recovery extended: $65.77 close on 2026-08-07 (+2.45%), above the 20-day and 50-day levels marked on 08-04, with the $69.36 52-week high in view. Two dated events inside four sessions — CMS's 3:00pm EDT 2026-08-12 PY2027 rate lock (HealthCare.gov states only; SBE states run to 10-15) and the 08-13 $500M par redemption. Theme still SATURATED: eight post-print target raises, zero cuts, consensus $71.67 scored at 8.97% upside.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $63 undoes the 50-day zone reclaimed 2026-08-03 and ends the post-print higher-low sequence; a weekly close below $56 also loses the July shelf. Secondarily, 2026-08-12 passing with the 2027 rate position unchanged, or a Q3 print (~2026-10-27, est.) trimming the more-than-$4.80 FY guide.

Beat-and-raise sold hard: $430.16 on 08-05 to $317.93 on 08-07, -26.1% in two sessions on the window's heaviest volume, while four brokers raised targets to $449–$490 on 08-06. Growth intact (FY26 guide up to $725–735M, adj EPS $17.00–17.50); the multiple broke (forward P/E 17.29 from 26.52). Narrative SATURATED, no dated fundamental gate before the Q3 print.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $293 removes the June breakout zone (the $293.90 pre-breakout high, the 06-18 close of $314.44) and leaves the 200-day at $248.39 as the next reference; secondarily, the ~2026-08-26 short-interest report showing the 2,349,330-share base cut without price reclaiming the 50-day at $353.53.

AI-server order book unchanged since the 2026-05-28 print ($51.3B backlog, ~$60B FY27 AI-server guide) while price added 26.4% in four sessions to a $467.27 close on 2026-08-04 — a new high built on cohort beta and Micron-driven sentiment, not Dell disclosure. Supermicro's audited Q4 on 2026-08-11 and Nvidia on 2026-08-26 resolve before Dell's 2026-09-03 call.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $405 surrenders the 2026-07-31 close of $405.37 and drops price under the 50-day near $407, forfeiting the entire four-session advance off the 2026-07-29 close of $369.64. Secondary: ISG operating margin printing below Q1 FY27's 10.5% at the 2026-09-03 call.

Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating insider selling mark a late, distribution-prone phase, with no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $58 forfeits the June breakout above the $62.18 prior ATH and drops the tape back into its nine-month range; secondary breaks are the digital-MSK theme rolling to SATURATED or the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print landing under the raised $200–202M revenue floor.

Deal-arb discount narrowed to 7.5%: RKLB closed $82.83 on 2026-08-07, $15.33 inside the collar's flat band, so the package still marks $54.00 against IRDM's $49.93. Forty days post-announcement there is still no Form S-4, no FCC docket and no disclosed HSR expiry. Rocket Lab's 2026-08-10 print is the next dated input.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $43.50, beneath the ~$43.52 undisturbed pre-deal reference implied by the disclosed 24.08% premium to $54.00, prices the merger below standalone Iridium; secondary condition is no Rocket Lab Form S-4 on the SEC file by the Q3 2026 reporting cycle.

Freight-recovery leg unresolved between the $266.91 low of 2026-08-03 and the $276.28 pre-print close; the 2026-08-04 reclaim of the June floor came on 825,678 shares against a 1.11M 20-day average. DAT's 35-day forecast published 2026-08-03 puts dry van spot at $2.29 ±$0.07 by early September, a band straddling the $2.25 contract rate. The 2026-08-11 Deutsche Bank appearance is the last management input before the 2026-09-20 quiet period.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $266 dates the 2026-08-04 reclaim of the June floor as a failed retest and puts the entire post-2026-07-15 advance behind the tape; secondary conditions are the 2026-08-11 Deutsche Bank appearance passing without an improved intra-quarter pricing read, or DAT dry van spot linehaul printing under the $2.25 contract rate.

Relief bounce off the broker-liability selloff stalled: LSTR closed $183.09 on 2026-08-07 after $181.62 on 08-04, below the 50-day at $205.13 and above a rising 200-day at $166.56. DAT dry van and flatbed have fallen two straight weeks to $2.32 and $2.83/mi; the ~2026-08-11 week-32 prints are the next check and Q3 was left unguided on 2026-07-28.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $167 takes out the 2026-07-30 session low of $167.58 and the rising 200-day at $166.56 together, leaving no defended shelf above the $119.32 52-week low; secondary confirmation would be a third straight weekly decline in DAT dry van and flatbed from $2.32 and $2.83/mi in the ~2026-08-11 reports.

Custom-silicon ASIC royalty story intact, but the AI-semi theme is mid-correction — chips posted their worst month vs software on record (7/17) with money rotating into energy. Buying a falling sector with no confirmed higher low is the trap; wait for the $250-255 May shelf to hold before re-engaging.

Invalidates if a daily close that breaches the risk threshold loses the May breakout shelf and rising weekly 20-EMA. Secondary breaks: Broadcom disclosing incremental custom-ASIC share at AWS Trainium or Microsoft MAIA, a Google/Marvell TPU walk-back, or hyperscalers guiding FY27 capex flat-to-down on the late-July prints.

Record made 2026-08-04 ($190.46 close, $195.70 intraday) has held — 2026-08-07 closed $189.52 with no give-back. Second tuck-in in three weeks (JetStream, 2026-08-06, undisclosed). No Q1 FY27 webcast notice as of 2026-08-09, which argues for the 2026-09-02 date over 08-26. Price sits above the $177.25 average target while FY27 is guided ~+8%; the print resolves it.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $164 gives up the July–August base and the rising 50-day average last observed at $164.07 on 2026-08-04; secondary is the Q1 FY27 print (~2026-09-02, not company-confirmed) guiding FY27 revenue under the $7.325B low end or Q1 non-GAAP gross margin below the 69.1% floor.

The August 6 binary resolved on the numbers and broke on the tape: EPS $1.10 vs $0.49, guidance raised $250M, stock closed $26.54 from $30.11 and $27.90 on August 7. What is left to buy is a post-print reset into the September 16 Investor Day and the ~September 30 subsidy vehicle, against a full-year guide that sits below the half-year result. Theme reads SATURATED.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $26.50 confirms the August 6 gap-down as distribution — it loses the $26.54 post-print reaction close and the $26.50 median target. Secondary: the ~September 30 appropriations vehicle passing with no enhanced premium tax credit extension attached.

Q2 printed +51.7% revenue and a third FY26 guidance raise on 2026-08-06, then the stock lost 33.89% to $118.02 on 08-07 as management dated second-half growth at roughly 30%. The acceleration leg is over; what is left is a de-rated compounder (forward P/E 19.73) with no base under it.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $100 gives up the round-number shelf and puts price into the rising 200-day zone ($91.21 as of 2026-08-04), converting the 2026-08-07 de-rating into a full round-trip. Secondary: the 35% FY2026 revenue-growth guide being trimmed at the Q3 print.

The 2026-08-04 breakout above the July band failed within three sessions — SNX closed $252.42 on 2026-08-07, back inside the $235.67–$255.70 range and under the 50-day. The move up came on Arista's print, not company news; Hyve's +117% billings leg stays unconfirmed until ~2026-09-24, and the nearest dated read is Dell on 2026-09-03.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $234 retraces the entire advance off the 2026-06-25 print and loses the $235.67 July base floor. Secondary: Dell guiding ISG materially under the ~75% growth flagged 2026-05-28, at its 2026-09-03 Q2 FY2027 print.

Maturing AI-storage supercycle with sell-side still chasing: Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight $1,100 (7/10) and Citi Street-high $1,240 (7/13). But the DRAM ETF is down ~30% and Seagate's Q4 FY26 print ~2026-07-22 is a binary about two trading days out — a late, crowded name gated by earnings.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $780 (loses the June breakout base and the low end of raised sell-side targets); a Q4 FY26 guide (~2026-07-22) that walks back nearline pricing or exabyte growth would confirm the theme flipping to saturated.

Atera's order book turned the name: the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise first sold to $45.60, then reversed to a record $52.03 close on 2026-08-07 (+14.10%, 5.43M shares) with the 16-analyst average target moving $41.54→$46.31 in two sessions. Demand is proven; factory capacity gates 2026 revenue and the next hard number is the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $45.92 fills the 2026-08-07 gap and returns price under the floor of the 2026-07-21→08-03 shelf; secondary: the ~40-unit H2 2026 Atera shipment plan cut or re-dated into 2027, or FY2026 guidance falling back below the $610M floor.

Silicon-photonics pivot re-rated the ADR ~3x, but the July blowoff to $28.96 round-tripped -26% to $21.25 in days while sell-side finally upgraded (Macquarie Outperform 2026-07-14) — late-stage distribution behaviour. The 2026-07-29 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the leg resumes or the re-rate unwinds.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $19.00 takes out the June breakout shelf and confirms the $28.96 July high as the cycle top; secondarily, a Q2 print on 2026-07-29 that meets revenue but compresses gross margin, showing the mature-node price war reasserting under an AI headline.

The 29% bounce off the 2026-07-28 low stalled: WDC closed $527.22 on 2026-08-03, −3.23% on a day its sector rose 0.58%, back under a rising 50-day at $562.65. Consensus (~$3.69B / $3.31–$3.35) still sits above the company's own $3.65B ±$100M / $3.25 ±$0.15 guide, so the 2026-08-05 print — 16.8% implied — is the binary.

Invalidates if A daily close below $462 surrenders the 2026-07-28/29 closing floor ($462.04–$463.51) and re-opens the $422.11 spike low. Secondary: the 2026-08-05 fiscal Q4 print landing at or under the $3.65B / $3.25 guide midpoints, or a September quarter not guided up sequentially against Seagate's ~$4.1B bar.

Beat-and-raise LTL margin story the tape only half pays for: after Q2 adjusted OR 79.9% and an at-least-200bps full-year guide, price lost the $199–$201 shelf on 2026-08-03 at $197.01 and reclaimed it 2026-08-07 at $202.58 with no company news attached. July Cass (~08-13) and ATA (~08-18) decide whether the above-6% July tonnage is a demand turn or share transfer.

Invalidates if A weekly close below $196 forfeits the 2026-08-07 reclaim of the $199–$201 shelf and puts price under the 2026-08-03 low close of $197.01, leaving the rising 200-day at $182.59 as the next reference; secondary condition is July Cass (~2026-08-13) and July ATA (~2026-08-18) both printing negative year over year.

Three higher lows since the 2026-07-29 China-substitution break, and the domestic SSA800 now benchmarks as a 2008-generation ASML tool — but the 2026-08-04 close of $1,711.89 is still under a 20-day of $1,727.29 and a 50-day of $1,755.37, ASML lagged the SOXX's best four days since March 2020, and no ASML-dated event lands before the 2026-10-14 Q3 print.

Custom-silicon and AI-networking royalty funded by the VMware software annuity. 2026-08-04's +6.61% to $418.16 reclaimed the 50-day, but the catalyst was Palantir's print and a record S&P close, not Broadcom news. The genuinely new item is Broadcom's ~$30B residual-value backstop on the Anthropic TPU lease vehicle. Q3 FY26 on 2026-09-02 is the binary.

InP scarcity went sector-wide on 2026-08-06 (TrendForce, quoting Lumentum's CEO on a >30% supply gap "worse than memory"), and AXTI ran $68.61 to $88.58 into 2026-08-07 (+17.84% on 19.0M shares), reclaiming the 50-day at $72.41. Lumentum 08-11 and Coherent 08-12 are the demand-side check on the ~$66M Q3 guide, now against 45x sales.

US commercial re-acceleration to +149% YoY broke the 2026 de-rating: PLTR gapped +29.45% to $162.66 on 2026-08-04, reclaiming the $152.54 200-day and leaving $126.97–$143.28 unfilled. The fundamental case improved and the entry structure got worse — the leg now rests on a one-session gap with no base under it.

Both binaries cleared: the first-ever print beat on revenue and EPS (2026-08-04), then 911.5M shares unlocked 2026-08-06 without a wall — low $105.11, close $114.92 (+6.14%). What replaces them is $18.37B quarterly capex against ~$13.2B consensus and a lock-up drip resuming ~2026-08-12.

The 2026-08-04 beat was fully round-tripped by the 2026-08-05 close of $211.14; the repricing that stuck came 2026-08-07, when BofA initiated at Buy/$367 and shares closed $252.49 (+12.37%). A new covering firm plus a panel high moving $335 → $355 meet the pre-registered flip condition, so the leg is ACCELERATING on sell-side re-rating. Lumentum 2026-08-11 is the next external demand check.

Q2 delivered into the 2026-08-04 FCC policy gap: revenue $191.9M (+86% YoY), first non-GAAP profit at $0.06 vs $0.01 consensus, capacity sold out through mid-2027. But the Q3 EPS guide of $0.11–$0.26 tops out under the $0.28 consensus, Needham cut its target to $190, and the FCC measure still has no docket or effective date.

Order cadence is intact — 2026-06-17, 07-09, 08-04 — but the 2026-08-04 spike to $109.89 has bled to $103.07 (2026-08-07 close) with no company disclosure since. The second distinct hyperscaler AI-ASIC order that the $130–150M FY2027 guide needs is still unsaid; 2026-08-20 Needham and 2026-08-26 Jefferies are the next dated venues for it.

Grid/advanced-conductor supplier to data-center and utility power; backlog still ~+40% YoY (~$280M), but the tape broke after the 2026-05-28 beat-and-soft-guide and a late-June Russell removal piled on passive selling. Below the lost ~$40 shelf near the early-July ~$35 area with the theme matured to a value-trap shape — stand aside until it bases into the ~Aug 5 Q1 print.

BTC→AI landlord whose operating build (>1 GW contracted, ~$31B backlog, 175 MW live) has decoupled from an equity that halved from $49.65 to a $25.79 low, now bouncing off the $25.56 April base into a binary FY26 print on 2026-07-27. Morgan Stanley's cautious $36.50 Equal-Weight initiation lands the day before. Stand aside into the print.

Reclaim leg running straight into the binary: 2026-08-03 +8% to $63.52 on Meta's WhatsApp-over-BlueBird workshop, 2026-08-04 +10.69% to $70.31 into the launch. BlueBirds 11-13 flew 2026-08-05; the 2026-08-10 Q2 call is the test — $14.7M booked in Q1 against a $150-200M FY26 guide, 13 satellites against ~45 targeted.

Nuclear-uranium theme MATURING and CCJ's structure has broken twice into improving news: mkt cap $44.79B (06-29) → ~$39.9B (07-25), ~$88, ~35% off the $135.24 high, absorbing a $17.5B federal AP1000 program and NJ's $24B plan. Barclays cut to Equal-Weight, PT $104 (07-16). Q2 print 2026-07-31 (EPS est $0.26, −49% YoY) is the binary; no setup until a higher-low reclaim of ~$104.

Thune reversed on 2026-08-03 and put a pre-recess CLARITY floor vote back on the calendar, but no cloture petition had been filed as of 2026-08-04 and Polymarket prices 2026 enactment near 27%. The company-guided stablecoin markdown still stands; Circle's 2026-08-05 print and a possible 2026-08-07 cloture vote resolve both legs inside 72 hours.

Float-royalty leg is finished; the stock now trades on Arc. Q2 (2026-08-05) printed $73.3B USDC circulation and $701.3M revenue vs $718.6M consensus, but FY26 other-revenue guidance doubled to $310–330M and Arc mainnet targets 2026-09-16 with BlackRock, DTCC and Visa as validators. Structure still broken: $66.67 close 2026-08-07, below the $76.59 50-day.

Four sessions took CRWV from the 2026-07-29 low of $60.55 to a 2026-08-04 close of $91.90 (+51.1%), stalling just under a declining 50-day $93.13 and 200-day $94.35 on Piper's $151 initiation and a 360 MW Indonesia build — while the credit market repriced a $2.6B facility 100–125bp wider on 2026-08-03. The 2026-08-11 Q2 is the binary: consensus $2.56B sits at the top of the $2.45–2.60B guide.

Event contracts now out-earn crypto ($156M vs $100M in Q2) and private venue marks are re-rating — Polymarket in talks above $20B on 8/4 against Kalshi's $22B. HOOD closed higher twice off the $85.30 low to $93.51, but the 50-day $97.28 and 200-day $98.87 stay overhead and 8/7 carries both the CLARITY recess deadline and the CFTC's renewable restraining-order application.

Broken gov-capital quantum leg, now publicly capitulated: seven-plus down weeks, an inverse-ETF complex up to +108%, and Cramer warning it off air on 2026-07-23. Washed out but not based, heading into a binary Q2 print (est. 2026-08-05 to 08-12) that referees the disputed Pentagon-revenue composition. No edge in a fresh long at current levels.

Neocloud re-rate has fully round-tripped: $33.62 close 7/17, -42% in 30 days, late-May Microsoft breakout base surrendered. Contracts intact ($9.7B MSFT, prepaid tranches) but Q3 AI revenue was only $17.3M vs a $3.4B ARR ambition, and Nvidia/Meta moving into direct compute sales plus the $800M CEO grant fight have flipped the theme to a live de-rating.

Two legs now: contractual indium phosphide supply ($87M reserved to 2031-12-31, agreed 2026-07-29) and a draft FCC ban on new Chinese transceiver models (Reuters, 2026-08-04). AAOI's 2026-08-06 print and $255–290M Q3 guide confirmed cohort demand and carried LITE +6.15% on 08-07. The 2026-08-11 FQ4 print is the binary, with consensus ~$1.01B / $3.02 sitting at the ceiling of management's own guide.

Capex-discipline leg died at the 2026-07-29 print; the replacement is Meta Compute — one hire, one call quote, still no signed customer. The two-session rebound to $587.94 (2026-08-04) stalled under the 50-day on lighter volume, and Oakland jury selection 2026-08-12 is the near binary.

Preferred-peg repair funded by coin sales and common issuance is the live leg: MSTR closed $97.65 on 2026-08-04, a second gain after the 2026-08-03 disposal 8-K, while STRC sits at $92.53 against a $100 stated amount. The 2026-08-10 weekly 8-K and the ~2026-09-01 Stretch rate are the next tests.

The AI-memory leg MTUM rotated into at the May reconstitution has rolled over: SOX -20%+ from its June peak, memory names in a bear market, and the fund closed $302.09 on 2026-07-17, below the $310 shelf that defined the post-reconstitution base. With ~36% in the semi complex and no rebalance until November, this is a falling-knife AI-hardware proxy with a lagged exit.

Nuclear-microreactor narrative has stopped converting news into demand: a Truist Hold/$22 initiation (7/14) and a Virginia consortium announcement (7/17) landed inside four sessions and NNE still printed a fresh 52-week low at $15.78 (7/16), losing the prior $18.04 floor. Broken structure, $400M ATM armed against a ~$844M cap, first KRONOS revenue ~FY2030. Stand aside until a base forms above $22.

Three straight cohort-driven sessions carried OKLO from the 2026-07-29 close of $36.84 to $43.33 on 2026-08-04, with no Oklo release behind any of them. The 2026-08-07 Q2 call is the binary.

The $19.16–$19.83 shelf held eight sessions and PL gapped out of it on 8/4 to close $22.83, the highest since 7/21 — but both up days came on sector beta with no company news, on below-average volume. SpaceX's debut print beat on revenue and shocked on $18.4B capex; up to 911.5M shares unlock 8/6.

Two unpriced agreements in six sessions — AT&T 07-27, Nasdaq Verafin 08-03 — carried QBTS back over the AT&T spike high on half the volume, but it still sits under a 50-day at $22.53. The 2026-08-06 pre-open print against a $4.03M consensus cut 34.95% in 90 days is where the agreements get a dollar value or stay press releases. IonQ prints 08-05 after the close.

Sector bid extended a second session on 2026-08-04 — QUBT $9.23, +26.4% from the 2026-07-29 close of $7.30 with no company news since 07-27 — but it was again the smallest gainer in its group and still sits under a $9.51 50-day line. The 2026-08-10 Q2 print, against $4.7M / $(0.12) estimates with 32.27% of float short, is the binary.

Quantum pure-play basket is in outright hype-cycle deflation: RGTI ~$14.19 (2026-07-17), -27% MoM, and the $14 shelf that held the May CHIPS-stake gap and the June executive-order pop has broken. Inverse quantum ETFs printing +108% and the Quantinuum IPO landing into the tape mark late-cycle supply. No company binary until the Q2 print ~2026-08-10. Avoid fresh entries.

Second up-day into tonight's print with nothing new disclosed: SMR closed $9.49 on 2026-08-04 (+5.33%), 25% above the 2026-07-29 base and still under a falling $9.90 50-day. Q2 consensus spans $1.0M (Zacks) to $8.80M (MarketBeat) on a $565K Q1 base; the only live asset is an unsigned end-2026 TVA PPA, and the 2026-08-05 call is the binary.

Terafab (2026-08-06) put a number on the split: $16.8B first phase, and Musk's approximate guess allocates ~25% of output to Tesla Optimus versus ~75% to SpaceX — the listed entity co-funds compute it mostly does not receive. Energy is the leg still compounding (Q2 storage 13.5 GWh, +41% YoY; Megapack 3 line live 08-06), while Germany's 367 July registrations (-66.9%) put Q3 deliveries back in play. Saturated and unresolved.

Q2 (2026-08-05) missed both lines and rare earths contributed roughly $0.1M of $25.1M revenue, yet the tape made a higher low and closed 08-06 at $12.90, best since 07-14. The mine-to-magnet story now rests on the 2026-08-12 ASM scheme vote rather than on reported numbers.

Peers raised 2026 guidance twice this week (TLN 08-05, CEG 08-06) and the complex still de-rated; VST fell 8.15% on 08-04 alongside NRG's -15.48% earnings break and closed 08-06 at $141.38, under the 07-29 flush low of $142.81. The 08-07 Q2 print is the binary and also the weekly close.