AMSC · American Superconductor
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $32.13
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
24.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $32.13, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 24.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $32.13, the highest close of the 63 sessions to 6 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. December-quarter revenue above $90 million, the quarterly average the CEO cited, would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 94.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +42.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 28.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 5.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 20.5
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 133
- Price to earnings (×)
- 8.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.0
All filed numbers
What American Superconductor reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 94.0 | +42.8 | 28.2 | 5.7 |
| first filed | 94.1 | +30.0 | 26.3 | 10.5 |
| first filed | 86.4 | +29.6 | 27.3 | −0.6 |
| first filed | 74.5 | +21.4 | 30.7 | 4.5 |
| first filed | 65.9 | +20.9 | 31.0 | 4.5 |
| first filed | 72.4 | +79.6 | 33.8 | 7.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 6.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 135 | 3.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +6.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 35.0 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 14.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 20.5 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 170 |
| Debt ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 4 February 2026; non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 7.7 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 4 February 2026 | 133 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +72.9% on a year | 110 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 66.4 |
| Inventory ($M) | 98.2 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 582 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,169 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,036 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 57.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 8.7 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.9 days of average trading to cover, +4.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $7.8M |
The thesis
American Superconductor sells grid-power equipment, and the case is that the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to beat it. The company beat September-quarter revenue estimates but guided December-quarter revenue to only above $80.0 million, and the report expected around early February 2027 decides whether orders keep turning into profitable sales.
September-quarter revenue was $94.0 million, up from $65.9 million a year earlier (8-K, 4 November 2026). The December-quarter outlook of revenue above $80.0 million compares with a $92.15 million estimate cited by Benzinga on 4 November 2026. The shares closed at $26.26 on 4 November 2026, the session before the report reached the market, and at $23.98 on 5 November 2026. They closed at $25.77 on 11 November 2026, 57.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $60.18 set on 11 May 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on American Superconductor Corporation
The bull case on American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC), in brief: revenue cleared the guided floor. The bear case: December-quarter guidance fell short of estimates.
Bull case
- Revenue cleared the guided floor. September-quarter revenue was $94.038 million against Benzinga's $87.46 million estimate and the company's own outlook of more than $85.0 million (4 November 2026). Grid revenue was $76.7 million and wind revenue was $17.4 million.
- Cash generation is strong. Operating cash flow was about $33 million in the September quarter and $48.7 million for the first half. Cash and restricted cash totaled $181.9 million at 30 September 2026, up from $147.6 million at 31 March 2026 (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Management points to steady revenue. CEO Daniel McGahn said on 4 November 2026 that revenue should average about $90 million in each of the first three fiscal quarters and that he expects strong demand through the second half. A December-quarter result near or above $90 million would support that.
- Oppenheimer stays positive. Oppenheimer maintained Outperform and lowered its price target to $52 on 6 November 2026, after the report. That target is above the $25.77 close of 11 November 2026.
Bear case
- December-quarter guidance fell short of estimates. Revenue above $80.0 million compares with a $92.15 million estimate, and non-GAAP earnings per share above $0.15 compares with $0.17 (Benzinga, 4 November 2026). A result at the floor would confirm a step down from $94.0 million.
- Earnings per share missed again. Adjusted EPS of $0.19 fell short of the $0.20 estimate on 4 November 2026. GAAP net income was $3.0 million ($0.06 a share) against $4.8 million ($0.11) a year earlier (8-K).
- Orders slowed. Orders exceeded $95 million in the September quarter, against more than $130 million in the June quarter (company results, 5 August 2026 and 4 November 2026). The 4 November 2026 release states no backlog figure, so the twelve-month backlog above $300 million reported in August has not been updated.
- Management cited pulled-forward deliveries. The CEO attributed the strong September quarter to customer-requested project acceleration (8-K, 4 November 2026). Accelerated deliveries take revenue from later quarters.
- The shares sit below both moving averages. The $25.77 close of 11 November 2026 is under the 50-day average of $28.15 and the 200-day average of $35.09, and the three-month price change is −18.2%.
- Index removal weighs on liquidity. AMSC left the Russell 3000E and Russell Microcap indices in the late-June 2026 reconstitution, which removed a source of passive buying.
Price setup
The shares fell to a 52-week closing low of $23.39 on 6 November 2026 and rebounded to $25.33 on 9 November 2026, $25.47 on 10 November 2026 and $25.77 on 11 November 2026. The 3-month reference close was $31.51 on 13 August 2026.
Overhead, the 4 November 2026 pre-report close of $26.26 is the nearest reference, then the 50-day average of $28.15 and the 200-day average of $35.09. A close back above $26.26 would erase the post-report decline. Below, the 6 November 2026 closing low of $23.39 is the only reference in the past year, since the shares are at new lows for the period.
The price already reflects a sharp reset: the shares are 57.2% below their May high, with the December-quarter outlook below estimates.
The latest insider filing is a director's grant of 1,607 shares on 18 September 2026 (SEC Form 4, filed 21 September 2026). CEO and CFO share sales run under Rule 10b5-1 plans that cover tax withholding on vesting restricted stock.
Catalysts ahead
- ~4 February 2027 (est.): Fiscal third-quarter earnings report (quarter ending 31 December 2026). Tests the outlook for revenue above $80.0M and non-GAAP EPS above $0.15, and whether orders and backlog recover.
What would change the view
A daily close above $32.13, the highest close of the 63 sessions to 6 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. December-quarter revenue above $90 million, the quarterly average the CEO cited, would point the same way.
What it trades with
AMSC sells grid-power equipment, wind-turbine electronics and Navy ship protection systems. Its shares trade with small-cap industrial and power-grid names more than with large technology companies. The Comtrafo (Brazil) acquisition adds purchase-accounting charges that lower reported profit; management cited about $1.5 million of non-cash charges in the June quarter. Trailing earnings per share rest on fiscal 2025 net income of $133.81 million that included a deferred-tax valuation-allowance release.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- September-quarter revenue was $94.0M versus $65.9M a year earlier; grid $76.7M, wind $17.4M. AMSC 8-K, Q2 fiscal 2026 results · as of
- GAAP net income was $3.0M ($0.06 per share) versus $4.8M ($0.11); non-GAAP net income $9.1M ($0.20 per share). AMSC 8-K, Q2 fiscal 2026 results · as of
- Adjusted EPS of $0.19 missed the $0.20 estimate; sales of $94.038M beat the $87.46M estimate. Benzinga · as of
- December-quarter outlook: revenue above $80.0M, non-GAAP net income above $7.0M ($0.15 per share); Benzinga cited estimates of $92.15M and $0.17. AMSC 8-K; Benzinga · as of
- Orders exceeded $95M in the September quarter, versus more than $130M in the June quarter; the release states no backlog figure. AMSC 8-K; Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings call · as of
- Cash and restricted cash totaled $181.9M versus $147.6M at 31 March 2026; operating cash flow was $48.7M for the half. AMSC 8-K, Q2 fiscal 2026 results · as of
- Oppenheimer maintained Outperform on AMSC and lowered its price target to $52. Oppenheimer note reported 6 November 2026 · as of
Sources
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