Regimes · the filter behind every position
The market's weather system.
A regime isn't a prediction and it isn't a trade. It's a filter — a daily read on the tape that gates how aggressively the model treats every candidate setup. Each label maps to a precise set of risk settings. Here's the full taxonomy.
What every regime sets
- Buy-threshold
- How selective entries are. It climbs in stress regimes — only the cleanest setups clear it.
- Size-multiplier
- A scalar on every position size. Eased in risk-on, cut hard in risk-off — the same setup, sized smaller.
- Max-exposure
- The cap on total deployed capital. Tightens as the regime deteriorates.
- Cash-floor
- The minimum cash held. Raised defensively when the tape turns hostile.
Risk-on / recovery
Risk-on
Risk-asset tailwind across credit + rates + breakevens.
Buy-thresholds eased, size multiplier 1.0, cash floor 5%. The model bids its strongest-graded names freely.
Glossary entry →Healthy But Unconfirmed
Recovery from RISK-OFF without full risk-asset confirmation.
A transitional read — partial easing of RISK-OFF tightening. Sizing graduated, buy-threshold loosened in steps.
Glossary entry →Choppy / neutral
Choppy
Mixed signals, no directional conviction.
Default neutral lean. Buy-thresholds neutral, sizing standard, position count capped tighter. Adds only on the strongest-graded setups.
Glossary entry →Risk-off / stress
Risk-off
Risk-asset headwind across the rate / credit / breadth complex.
Buy-threshold tightened, size multiplier 0.5, cash floor 30%. Only the strongest-graded names pass; the retail-squeeze archetype is switched off.
Glossary entry →Stagflation Scare — Binary Event
A single binary event is gating regime direction.
Used when one near-term event (CPI, NFP, Fed) will resolve regime ambiguity. Position sizing halved across the board until the event resolves.
Glossary entry →Stagflation Scare — Escalating
Inflation expectations rising into a slowing-growth read.
Energy + materials hedges favoured; long-duration assets deprioritised. Cash floor raised; defensive sizing increased.
Glossary entry →Common questions
- What is a market regime?
- A regime is a daily classification of market conditions — risk-on, choppy/neutral, or risk-off — that gates how aggressively a strategy reads candidate setups. It is not a price prediction; it is a filter on risk-taking. orbyd assigns one each trading day and records it on every journal entry.
- How does orbyd classify the macro regime?
- orbyd reads the rates, credit, breakevens and breadth complex. Each label (RISK-ON, CHOPPY, RISK-OFF, a healthy-but-unconfirmed recovery and the stagflation-fear states) maps to a specific set of buy-threshold, size-multiplier, max-exposure and cash-floor settings.
- What does a regime change actually do?
- It re-sets the risk dials. In RISK-OFF the buy-threshold tightens, the size-multiplier is cut, max-exposure drops and the cash-floor rises; in RISK-ON every dial eases back. The same candidate setup is sized differently depending on the active regime.
- Does a regime call predict the market?
- No. A regime is a read of current conditions, not a forecast. It sets how much risk the system takes — not where prices go next.
Every journal entry records the regime call; the weekly macro view expands it.