Regimes
Market regimes explained
A regime is a daily read of the US stock market's backdrop, not a prediction and not a trade. Fixed rules set it after each close from the S&P 500's trend, market breadth and volatility, and the journal, the macro view and the stock notes are written against it. Use it as context when you read a stock's research. No rule acts on it, and it does not decide what the portfolio holds.
What the read is made of
- Trend
- Where the S&P 500 (via SPY) closes against its 200-day average: more than 0.5% above supports risk-on, more than 2% below is risk-off.
- Breadth
- The share of the 1,000 most-traded US stocks above their own 50-day average: above 60% supports risk-on, below 40% is risk-off.
- Volatility
- The VIX: up to 28 it is calm or elevated; above 28 it is stressed and risk-off.
Risk-on
The S&P 500 is above its trend, most stocks are in uptrends and volatility is contained.
The daily read with the index more than 0.5% above its average, more than 60% of stocks above theirs (55% will do with the index at least 5% above), and the VIX below 28. Published as context on every journal entry. No rule acts on it; Claude sees the same three inputs when it decides the portfolio.
Glossary entry →Neutral
The three inputs disagree: no clear call either way.
The read whenever neither risk-on nor risk-off applies, for example the index above its trend while too few stocks are in uptrends. Published as context. No rule acts on it; Claude sees the same three inputs when it decides the portfolio.
Glossary entry →Risk-off
Risk-off
The index has broken below its trend, most stocks are falling, or volatility is high.
The daily read with the index more than 2% below its average, under 40% of stocks above theirs, or the VIX above 28. Published as context. No rule acts on it; Claude sees the same three inputs when it decides the portfolio.
Glossary entry →Risk-off, sustained
A risk-off read that has lasted: the index below its 200-day average for ten sessions in a row or more.
Published as context, like every regime read. It ends on the first close back above the average, and the count of sessions below it starts again from zero.
Glossary entry →Common questions
- What is a market regime?
- A daily classification of market conditions: risk-on, neutral, risk-off, or risk-off sustained. It is not a price prediction; it is the backdrop the research is written against. FrontierPicks assigns one each trading day and records it on every journal entry.
- How does FrontierPicks classify the macro regime?
- By fixed rules from three inputs at each close: the S&P 500 (via SPY) against its 200-day average, the share of the 1,000 most-traded US stocks above their own 50-day average, and the VIX. The read is taken after each close, settled the next morning with the official closes, and published daily as context.
- What does a regime change actually do?
- It changes the backdrop the research is written against: the journal, the macro view and the stock notes. No rule acts on it, and it does not decide what the portfolio holds. Every portfolio change names a dated fact about the company.
- Does a regime call predict the market?
- No. A regime is a read of current conditions, not a forecast. It describes the conditions the research is written against, not where prices go next.
The market regime page shows today's call and how it has moved; every journal entry records the call for its day.