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This week · daily digest

What changed this week.

Updated ·

Macro regime · as of

The US market backdrop, right now.

Macro view →
Regime call Risk-on

VIX

15.81

elevated

Breadth · % above 200d

65.3 %

broad

S&P 500 vs 200d EMA

+9.1 %

above trend

Conviction moves · last 7 days

Where conviction shifted this week.

119 names changed conviction tier across orbyd's dossiers in the seven days to .

Conviction-tier moves across orbyd dossiers in the seven days to 2026-08-09
Name Date From To
ADSK NONE LOW
AMPL LOW MEDIUM
ARES NONE MEDIUM
ATRC NONE MEDIUM
AVTR NONE LOW
AZTA LOW MEDIUM
BABA NONE MEDIUM
BJRI LOW MEDIUM
BLKB NONE LOW
BMNR NONE LOW
BMY NONE MEDIUM
BVS LOW MEDIUM
BWLP NONE MEDIUM
CARG LOW MEDIUM
CCS LOW MEDIUM
CDNA LOW MEDIUM
CERT LOW MEDIUM
CLDX LOW MEDIUM
CMCO NONE MEDIUM
CME NONE MEDIUM
CMPS HIGH MEDIUM
COHU LOW MEDIUM
CRAI NONE MEDIUM
CRM NONE MEDIUM
CRWD LOW MEDIUM
CSCO MEDIUM LOW
CTSH NONE LOW
CVI NONE LOW
CYRX LOW MEDIUM
DFIN NONE MEDIUM
DJT NONE LOW
DK HIGH MEDIUM
DOCN MEDIUM LOW
DOCU NONE LOW
DSGN MEDIUM LOW
DVA MEDIUM LOW
DXC NONE LOW
EFOR NONE LOW
ELVN MEDIUM LOW
ENTG LOW MEDIUM
ENVA HIGH MEDIUM
EPAM NONE LOW
ETON LOW MEDIUM
EVER LOW MEDIUM
EXLS NONE MEDIUM
FA LOW MEDIUM
FET NONE MEDIUM
FOSL NONE LOW
FSLY NONE MEDIUM
G NONE LOW
GCT NONE MEDIUM
HIMX LOW MEDIUM
HPP LOW MEDIUM
HTZ LOW MEDIUM
HUBS NONE LOW
HUM LOW MEDIUM
HURN NONE MEDIUM
ICHR MEDIUM LOW
ICLR LOW MEDIUM
IESC LOW MEDIUM
IMAX NONE MEDIUM
INNV MEDIUM LOW
INTA NONE LOW
IQ NONE LOW
ITGR NONE LOW
KC NONE LOW
KNSA NONE MEDIUM
KRT NONE LOW
LAD NONE MEDIUM
LBRX NONE LOW
LITE MEDIUM LOW
LNC NONE LOW
MANH NONE MEDIUM
MCS NONE LOW
MKSI MEDIUM LOW
MKTX NONE LOW
MPC NONE LOW
NEOG NONE MEDIUM
NTSK LOW MEDIUM
OFIX NONE LOW
OOMA NONE MEDIUM
OTEX NONE LOW
OTLY NONE LOW
OWL NONE LOW
PANL NONE LOW
PAYC NONE LOW
PCOR NONE MEDIUM
PCTY NONE MEDIUM
QTWO NONE MEDIUM
SAH NONE LOW
SBET NONE LOW
SEER NONE MEDIUM
SHIP NONE MEDIUM
SMTI NONE LOW
SNX MEDIUM LOW
SPCX LOW MEDIUM
SPSC NONE MEDIUM
TAL NONE MEDIUM
TASK NONE LOW
TEAM NONE MEDIUM
THC NONE MEDIUM
TLN MEDIUM LOW
VET NONE MEDIUM
VRNS LOW MEDIUM
VSTM LOW MEDIUM
WDAY NONE LOW
WHD NONE MEDIUM
WIX NONE MEDIUM
WPP NONE LOW
XMTR LOW MEDIUM
ZS NONE LOW
ARM MEDIUM LOW
MU LOW MEDIUM
NTAP MEDIUM LOW
TSEM LOW MEDIUM
HPE LOW MEDIUM
PLTR LOW MEDIUM
XPO MEDIUM LOW
ASML LOW MEDIUM

New & refreshed · last 7 days

Fresh dossiers this week.

All dossiers →

AAOI

fresh

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

LOW

Q2 delivered into the 2026-08-04 FCC policy gap: revenue $191.9M (+86% YoY), first non-GAAP profit at $0.06 vs $0.01 consensus, capacity sold out through mid-2027. But the Q3 EPS guide of $0.11–$0.26 tops out under the $0.28 consensus,…

Cyclical recovery networking-optical ai-datacenter-infrastructure
catalyst ·

ABEO

fresh

Abeona Therapeutics Inc.

LOW

CMS NTAP for ZEVASKYN granted 2026-08-04 plus a confirmed 2026-08-13 Q2 date have carried ABEO to within 0.7% of its $7.29 52-week high. The launch-ramp narrative is accelerating on reimbursement news, but the print is the binary:…

Earnings inflection rare-disease-gene-therapy
catalyst ·

ACIW

fresh

ACI Worldwide, Inc.

MEDIUM

Special-situation breakup narrative accelerating: Reuters (2026-07-17) reports ACI exploring a ~$1.5B sale of its Biller unit, which would surface sum-of-the-parts value and re-rate the faster-growing Payments Software segment. Q1 beat +…

Special situation ai-datacenter-infrastructure m-and-a-special-situations
catalyst ·

ADPT

fresh

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation

MEDIUM

clonoSEQ MRD pure-play inflecting to self-funding growth (MRD rev +53% YoY, profitability turning); June 15 Immune Medicine separation adds a value-unlock leg. But the tape just broke to fresh 52-wk highs (~$22.92) above the $20–22…

Defensive precision-biotech-therapeutics medtech-diagnostics
analysed ·

AEHR

fresh

Aehr Test Systems

LOW

Order cadence is intact — 2026-06-17, 07-09, 08-04 — but the 2026-08-04 spike to $109.89 has bled to $103.07 (2026-08-07 close) with no company disclosure since. The second distinct hyperscaler AI-ASIC order that the $130–150M FY2027 guide…

Cyclical recovery semi-foundry-equipment networking-optical
catalyst ·

AKTS

fresh

Aktis Oncology, Inc.

LOW

Coverage-and-flow leg has crested: -25% from the 2026-06-30 all-time closing high of $32.23 to $24.13 on 2026-08-07, no new sell-side action since JPM's 2026-07-14 maintain at $33, and three insiders selling in July's post-lock-up window.…

Compounder oncology-immunology rare-disease-gene-therapy
catalyst ·

ALKS

fresh

Alkermes plc

MEDIUM

Class validation arrived without a bid: the FDA approved Takeda's ORZEYFUL (oveporexton) for NT1 on 2026-08-05, proving the OX2R mechanism commercially, yet ALKS closed 2026-08-07 at $49.17, 11.0% below its $55.22 high with RSI 39.3. Q2…

Special situation precision-biotech-therapeutics
analysed ·

AMPL

fresh

Amplitude, Inc.

MEDIUM

Beat-and-raise on 2026-08-05 resolved the binary: ARR $410M +22% YoY, RPO +35%, FY revenue and margin guide both lifted, five PT raises inside 48 hours to a $12.5–$13 ceiling. Unfinished: net retention printed 103% (105% pro forma) against…

Theme leader ai-enterprise-software
analysed ·

APH

fresh

Amphenol Corporation

MEDIUM

Q2 landed bullish on 2026-07-29: sales $8.758B and adj EPS $1.35 both beat, orders $10.7B held book-to-bill at 1.23:1, and Q3 guidance came in above consensus on both lines. Four desks lifted targets to $197–215 on 07-30 and a 2-for-1…

Cyclical recovery ai-datacenter-infrastructure semiconductors-analog
catalyst ·

Themes · accelerating · as of

The theme clusters picking up.

Themes in motion →

AI enterprise software

ACCELERATING
confidence · 48%

Broad price-target-raise flow across app software: UBS and TD Cowen lifted Atlassian (08-07/08-08), three houses raised Paycom (08-06/08-07), Benchmark and HSBC upgraded Unity (08-07), Citizens upgraded Expensify after its Q2 revenue beat (08-06/08-07), Appian raised its outlook on cloud growth (08-06), and Cloudflare drew four PT raises (08-07/08-08). GTM is the counter-case so the cluster's strength is one-month, not quarter-long. Proposed as a new id because the canonical list has no advertising or media category and these names an SSP, a performance marketer, a broadcaster, a global agency and a social platform trade on ad budgets, not on enterprise software or consumer demand. Evidence: QuinStreet jumped over 25% overnight (08-07), Scotiabank upgraded PubMatic to Sector Outperform at $21 (08-07), and Gray beat at $0.21 vs $0.02 and guided Q3 sales to $935M-$965M against $896M (08-07); WPP's H1 EPS fell to $0.02 from $0.27 (08-06), so the strength is US-adtech-led, not agency-led.

Dossiers in this theme →

Binary-catalyst biotech

ACCELERATING
confidence · 30%

A small-cap clinical-stage bid rather than one narrative: Xencor beat at $(0.29) vs $(0.79) on $51.2M vs $18.9M with three PT raises (08-05/08-06), HC Wainwright lifted Precigen to $18 (08-05), Citi raised Amylyx to $26 (08-03) against a Q2 miss with cash runway stated into 2028 (08-06), and HC Wainwright reiterated Buy on LB Pharmaceuticals at $45 (08-03). ATAI, MMED and HELP have no substantive week-of news and sit here on 3-month momentum alone (80.5, 65.0, 113.7) the low confidence is deliberate, and the cluster is too heterogeneous to support a directional claim.

Dossiers in this theme →

Consumer discretionary rotation

ACCELERATING
confidence · 40%

GigaCloud beat at $1.65 vs $0.81 and guided Q3 above consensus (08-06), Corsair surged on beat-and-raise results (08-07), and FIGS drew three PT revisions in one session (08-07). The offsets are equally concrete Utz missed on both lines (08-05), Nike was downgraded to Underweight (08-04), and ELF and HNST were named in a 'may implode in Q3' screen (08-07) so this is a name-by-name bid, not a sector rotation; UTZ and OTLY are packaged food housed here for lack of a staples cluster.

Dossiers in this theme →

Critical materials & rare earths

ACCELERATING
confidence · 40%

Policy is doing the work: the administration pledged over $2B for battery and critical-minerals firms to cut China reliance (08-08), and Bloomberg surfaced a Pentagon war game exposing US aluminum risk (08-05). Company evidence is mixed ATI raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.90-$5.18 with PT raises from Susquehanna and BTIG (08-06/08-07), while MP beat on revenue at $108.49M but missed on EPS (08-06).

Dossiers in this theme →

Cyclical industrials

ACCELERATING
confidence · 45%

Driven by prints, not multiples: Manitowoc beat at $0.46 vs $0.11 and raised FY26 EPS guidance to $0.80-$1.20 (08-06), Park-Ohio beat and raised (08-05), Allient beat with a JPMorgan PT to $120 (08-05/08-07), Mativ beat at $0.50 vs $0.28 (08-05), Kronos beat and surged (08-05/08-06). Dispersion is real Orion missed on EPS (08-05), Clearwater appeared in a 'may collapse in Q3' screen (08-03), and MAN and CBZ carry no week-of headlines, sitting here on momentum alone.

Dossiers in this theme →

Fintech & consumer credit

ACCELERATING
confidence · 45%

Chime drew four PT raises across 08-06/08-07, Oportun beat and affirmed FY26 guidance of $1.50-$1.65 with a Stephens PT raise (08-05/08-06), PaySign raised FY26 GAAP EPS guidance to $0.35-$0.37 from $0.21-$0.26 (08-05), and traders circulated a report of a Greenlight position in PayPal (08-06). PAY has dropped out versus last week; LMND appears only in a whale-activity roundup (08-03) and is the weakest member.

Dossiers in this theme →

Catalysts ahead · as of

The dated catalysts on the clock.

Full calendar →

This week 156

LGN

Legence Corp.

fda

today

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

earnings

in 1d

Alto Ingredients, Inc.

earnings

in 1d

ASML Holding N.V.

earnings

in 1d

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

earnings

in 1d

AtriCure, Inc.

fda

in 1d

Biohaven Ltd.

fda

in 1d

BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc.

product

in 1d

+148 more

Next week 36

APH

Amphenol Corporation

earnings

in 8d
BMY

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.

fda

in 8d
CVI

CVR ENERGY, INC.

earnings

in 8d

Embecta Corp.

earnings

in 8d

LiveRamp Holdings, Inc.

earnings

in 8d

ArcBest Corporation

earnings

in 9d
BXC

BlueLinx Holdings Inc.

fda

in 9d
CCS

Century Communities, Inc.

earnings

in 9d

+28 more

Later 66

CLW

Clearwater Paper Corporation

earnings

in 15d
FN

Fabrinet

earnings

in 15d
BAK

Braskem S.A.

earnings

in 16d
CDW

CDW Corporation

earnings

in 16d

CRA International, Inc.

earnings

in 16d

Helen of Troy Limited

earnings

in 16d
MCS

The Marcus Corporation

earnings

in 16d
AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

earnings

in 17d

+58 more

Resolved · last 7 days

The theses that closed out.

CCC CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. (CCC)

Thesis played out

FRD Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)

Thesis played out

OKLO Oklo Inc. (OKLO)

Thesis played out

SENS Senseonics Holdings, Inc. (SENS)

Thesis played out

TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM)

Thesis played out

WEAV Weave Communications, Inc. (WEAV)

Thesis invalidated

AKBA Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA)

Thesis invalidated

BROS Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)

Thesis invalidated

CHYM Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM)

Thesis played out

ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)

Thesis played out

FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)

Thesis played out

GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (GGAL)

Thesis invalidated

GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF)

Thesis invalidated

HELP Cybin Inc. (HELP)

Thesis played out

LZ LegalZoom.com, Inc. (LZ)

Thesis invalidated

MIRM Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIRM)

Thesis invalidated

NWPX NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX)

Thesis invalidated

QURE uniQure N.V. (QURE)

Thesis played out

RAPP Rapport Therapeutics, Inc. (RAPP)

Thesis played out

WDC Western Digital Corporation (WDC)

Thesis invalidated

ZVRA Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA)

Thesis played out

BBAR Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR)

Thesis invalidated

COMP Compass, Inc. (COMP)

Thesis played out

GHRS GH Research PLC (GHRS)

Thesis played out

TBI Trueblue, Inc. (TBI)

Thesis played out

UI Ubiquiti Inc. (UI)

Thesis played out

AEIS Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS)

Thesis played out

AOSL Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL)

Thesis played out

BRKR Bruker Corporation (BRKR)

Thesis invalidated

DDOG Datadog, Inc. (DDOG)

Thesis played out

HRI Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI)

Thesis played out

NKTR Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)

Thesis played out

ORIC Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ORIC)

Thesis played out

VECO Veeco Instruments Inc. (VECO)

Thesis played out

WGS GeneDx Holdings Corp. (WGS)

Thesis played out

AAPL Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Thesis invalidated

AGX Argan, Inc (AGX)

Thesis played out

AMBA Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA)

Thesis played out

ATEN A10 Networks Inc (ATEN)

Thesis invalidated

BTE Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)

Thesis played out

FIG Figma, Inc. (FIG)

Thesis played out

KURA Kura Oncology, Inc. (KURA)

Thesis invalidated

MDB MongoDB, Inc. (MDB)

Thesis played out

MSFT Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Thesis played out

ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

Thesis invalidated

PGEN Precigen, Inc. (PGEN)

Thesis played out

RDW Redwire Corporation (RDW)

Thesis played out

RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB)

Thesis played out

SABR Sabre Corporation (SABR)

Thesis played out

SVV Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV)

Thesis played out

XRX Xerox Holdings Corporation (XRX)

Thesis played out

Week-ahead note

The week-ahead read.

Risk-on holds for a second day: VIX at 15.81, 65.3% of the tape above its 200-EMA, and SPY 9.1% above its own. Leadership is scattered across small- and mid-cap corners rather than megacap tech UTZ tops the momentum table at 83.6 (3-month +85.0%), with healthcare names HELP and CDNA carrying the largest three-month gains in the set at +113.7% and +115.7%, and EFOR showing the strongest acceleration among the…