This week · daily digest
What changed this week.
Updated ·
Macro regime · as of
The US market backdrop, right now.
Regime call Risk-off
VIX
17.71
elevated
Breadth · % above 200d
37 %
narrow
S&P 500 vs 200d EMA
+5.8 %
above trend
Conviction moves · last 7 days
Where conviction shifted this week.
167 names changed conviction tier across the FrontierPicks dossiers in the seven days to .
| Name | Date | From | To |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANF | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| AVLN | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| AVTR | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| AVTX | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| BLDP | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| CBZ | SUPREME | HIGH | |
| CLOV | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| CLYM | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| DCTH | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| DFDV | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| FLXS | NONE | LOW | |
| FTRE | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| GBTG | SUPREME | HIGH | |
| GH | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| GLW | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| HAE | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| HNI | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| HPE | MEDIUM | HIGH | |
| HUM | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| IKT | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| INFQ | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| IPAR | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| KELYA | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| KOPN | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| MU | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| NGNE | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| NSP | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| OII | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| ONC | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| PAYO | SUPREME | HIGH | |
| PEB | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| PK | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| PPTA | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| PVLA | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| QNST | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| RCKT | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| RKLB | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| RNG | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| S | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| SBSW | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| SCZM | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| SKM | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| SMWB | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| SNEX | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| STRL | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| SYNA | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| WT | NONE | LOW | |
| WTI | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| XMTR | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| ABVX | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| ACB | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| ADI | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| AMLX | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| AMP | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| ANRO | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| ARTV | NONE | LOW | |
| BBNX | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| DLTR | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| EPC | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| FLYW | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| GEN | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| HRB | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| IBKR | NONE | LOW | |
| IMVT | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| INNV | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| IOVA | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| IRWD | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| JBIO | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| LFST | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| MBX | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| MESO | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| MMED | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| NESR | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| NVCR | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| ODTX | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| P | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| PESI | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| RCEL | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| SMMT | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| STTK | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| TNXP | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| TVTX | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| UNH | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| VEEV | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| VIOT | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| VRNS | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| YEXT | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| ZBRA | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| ZS | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| AEHR | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| AKTS | HIGH | LOW | |
| ALK | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| ALKS | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| AMAT | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| APPS | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| ARIS | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| ASMB | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| AZTA | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| BAX | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| BH | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| BHVN | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| BLKB | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| BMA | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| CAI | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| CBRL | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| CCS | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| CLW | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| CMG | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| CRSR | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| CTSH | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| CXW | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| DOCN | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| DOCU | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| DPRO | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| DSGN | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| EVER | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| EXK | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| FDMT | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| FSM | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| GEO | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| GPRK | NONE | LOW | |
| HAFN | NONE | LOW | |
| HALO | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| HBB | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| HCC | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| HIMX | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| HL | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| HPP | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| HTFL | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| IAG | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| IESC | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| INTA | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| IT | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| KRO | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| KRT | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| LAD | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| LBRX | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| LNC | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| LTH | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| MASS | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| MGNX | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| MNKD | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| MNTN | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| MOD | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| NET | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| OABI | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| OPRT | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| OTEX | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| PBR | NONE | LOW | |
| PRGO | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| QTWO | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| SAP | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| SIBN | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| SLDB | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| SM | NONE | MEDIUM | |
| SNAP | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| SSL | NONE | MEDIUM | |
| SSRM | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| TK | NONE | MEDIUM | |
| TNET | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| TNK | NONE | LOW | |
| TRMD | NONE | LOW | |
| TXN | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| UGP | HIGH | MEDIUM | |
| WTTR | LOW | MEDIUM | |
| XNCR | MEDIUM | LOW | |
| ZURA | MEDIUM | LOW |
New & refreshed · last 7 days
Fresh dossiers this week.
AGL agilon health, inc. fresh LOW agilon health’s re-rating depends on Q3 confirming margin repair after its September partnership expansion. Medical margin of at least $105 million with the annual outlook intact would validate the operating case; a weekly close below $80… AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Advanced Micro Devices’ Helios story depends on OpenAI bringing the platform online in the fourth quarter of 2026. Confirmed operation would settle the deployment case; a weekly close below $456 or activation postponed beyond that quarter… AMPL Amplitude, Inc. fresh LOW Amplitude's AI analytics reacceleration case needs improving customer retention and recovery above the August $14.30 high. A weekly close below $12.60 invalidates the price case; the next quarterly report tests retention against the 103%… ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co. fresh LOW Abercrombie & Fitch’s margin re-rating lacks price confirmation after the 2026-09-18 close of $135.76. Continuation requires a weekly close above $152.08 before Q3 results, estimated for 2026-11-24, without first closing below $130. AOUT American Outdoor Brands, Inc. fresh HIGH American Outdoor Brands’ margin recovery supports an earnings-driven rerating toward Roth Capital’s $17 target dated 2026-09-04. A daily close at or above $17 would confirm that price leg; a weekly close below the $14.19 earnings-reaction… ARCB ArcBest Corporation fresh LOW ArcBest’s cost-reduction rebound failed its published price condition at the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $128.73. Third-quarter results still test recurring savings and preservation of the second-quarter 90.8% adjusted Asset-Based operating… ARM Arm Holdings plc fresh LOW Data-center royalty doubled YoY for a second quarter, but Q2 FY27 royalty growth is guided to ~13% against 22% delivered. No Arm-specific disclosure has landed since 2026-07-29, so the bid is set by third parties — BofA's 2026-08-13… ASX ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. fresh LOW Advanced-packaging pricing power is real — quotes raised 20%+ (2026-07-01), 2026 capex hiked to US$8.5B, CoWoS-equivalent capacity tripling to 25k wpm — but the tape topped at $45.51 the same day and sits ~15% lower inside a 13% semi… ATEN A10 Networks Inc fresh LOW AI-security re-rate off the 2026-06-15 TrojAI deal has stalled: ATEN churning ~$35 below the $37.36 ATH, momentum cooling as Mizuho lifts its target to $34 but stays Neutral — analyst catch-up, not fresh conviction. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print…
Themes · accelerating · as of
The theme clusters picking up.
No themes are accelerating right now. The board updates as the model re-reads cluster co-movement.
Catalysts ahead · as of
The dated catalysts on the clock.
This week 180
Krispy Kreme, Inc.
GlobalFoundries Inc.
earnings
KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Abivax SA
earnings
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
earnings
American Resources Corporation
earnings
AtriCure, Inc.
fda
AXT Inc
earnings
+172 more
Next week 174
AngloGold Ashanti plc
earnings
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
Beta Bionics, Inc.
fda
Coeur Mining, Inc.
earnings
Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc.
earnings
DRDGOLD Ltd.
earnings
Inventiva S.A.
fda
MakeMyTrip Limited
earnings
+166 more
Later 67
Baytex Energy Corp.
earnings
Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc
fda
Kosmos Energy Ltd.
earnings
Xos, Inc.
earnings
CryoPort, Inc.
earnings
Myers Industries, Inc.
earnings
Pulse Biosciences, Inc
fda
Repligen Corporation
earnings
+59 more
Resolved · last 7 days
The theses that closed out.
ABT Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Thesis invalidated ABX Abacus Global Management, Inc. (ABX) Thesis invalidated ACLS Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) Thesis invalidated ACMR ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) Thesis invalidated ALM Almonty Industries Inc. (ALM) Thesis invalidated ALMS Alumis Inc. (ALMS) Thesis invalidated AMBQ Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ) Thesis played out AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) Thesis invalidated ATHM Autohome Inc. (ATHM) Thesis invalidated BLSH Bullish (BLSH) Thesis played out BTCS BTCS Inc. (BTCS) Thesis played out CABA Cabaletta Bio, Inc. (CABA) Thesis invalidated CAL Caleres Inc (CAL) Thesis invalidated CCXI Churchill Capital Corp XI (CCXI) Thesis invalidated CERS Cerus Corporation (CERS) Thesis played out CROX Crocs, Inc. (CROX) Thesis played out CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) Thesis played out CTRN Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) Thesis invalidated CVI CVR ENERGY, INC. (CVI) Thesis played out CXT Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) Thesis invalidated GERN Geron Corporation (GERN) Thesis invalidated GFI Gold Fields Ltd ADR (GFI) Thesis invalidated HROW Harrow, Inc. (HROW) Thesis invalidated HTLD Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) Thesis invalidated IMRN Immuron Limited (IMRN) Thesis invalidated IVA Inventiva S.A. (IVA) Thesis invalidated JELD JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. (JELD) Thesis invalidated KGS Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) Thesis invalidated KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) Thesis invalidated LAR Lithium Argentina AG (LAR) Thesis invalidated LOVE The Lovesac Company (LOVE) Thesis invalidated LRMR Larimar Therapeutics, Inc. (LRMR) Thesis invalidated MAMA Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA) Thesis invalidated MAZE Maze Therapeutics, Inc. (MAZE) Thesis invalidated MEDP Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Thesis played out MNPR Monopar Therapeutics Inc. (MNPR) Thesis invalidated MSTR Strategy Inc (MSTR) Thesis played out MXL MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) Thesis played out NAVN Navan, Inc. (NAVN) Thesis invalidated NWL Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) Thesis invalidated QRVO Qorvo, Inc. (QRVO) Thesis played out REAX The Real Brokerage, Inc. (REAX) Thesis invalidated RELY Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Thesis invalidated RPAY Repay Holdings Corporation (RPAY) Thesis played out RZLT Rezolute, Inc. (RZLT) Thesis invalidated SDGR Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR) Thesis played out SID Companhia Siderurgica Nacional S.A. (CSN) (SID) Thesis invalidated SLS SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc. (SLS) Thesis invalidated STAA STAAR Surgical Company (STAA) Thesis invalidated TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) Thesis invalidated TENB Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) Thesis played out TSHA Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc. (TSHA) Thesis invalidated UPXI Upexi, Inc. (UPXI) Thesis played out XGN Exagen Inc. (XGN) Thesis played out ZIP ZipRecruiter, Inc. (ZIP) Thesis invalidated BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) Thesis invalidated COTY COTY INC (COTY) Thesis invalidated WDAY Workday, Inc. (WDAY) Thesis played out
Week-ahead note
The week-ahead read.
The market remains risk-off as of September 18, with breadth above the 200-EMA at 37.0% and deteriorating despite SPY sitting 5.8% above its 200-EMA. Momentum includes financial services names ASST, up 104.4% over one month, and FWDI, up 70.1% over three months.