DJT · Trump Media & Technology Group
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $6.02
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
22.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $6.02, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 42.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $6.02, which would put the shares above their early-November trading range and show them leading the S&P 500. Holders redeeming only a small part of the convertible notes at the 30 November 2026 put would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 3.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +205.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 81.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 11949.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −16.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −795
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 320.4
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −1.3
All filed numbers
What Trump Media & Technology Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 3.0 | +205.0 | 81.9 | 11949.5 |
| first filed | 1.7 | +89.0 | 70.1 | −9792.4 |
| first filed | 0.9 | +6.1 | −72.3 | −33687.8 |
| first filed | 1.0 | +0.5 | 45.4 | −43010.6 |
| first filed | 1.0 | −3.8 | 54.1 | −5926.4 |
| first filed | 0.9 | +5.5 | 61.2 | −4925.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 410 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −840 | 410 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +10.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −16.3 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −16.3 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 182 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 977 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −795 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +23564.3% on a year | 5.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 10 August 2026 | 0.3 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,442 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,292 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,087 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 320.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −1.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.5 days of average trading to cover, +26.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $10K | $55K |
The thesis
Trump Media & Technology Group's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The operating business is small, cash fell in the third quarter, and holders of about $1 billion of convertible notes can demand repayment on 30 November 2026, two weeks before the 14 December 2026 shareholder vote on the all-stock merger with fusion developer TAE Technologies.
The shares closed at $5.19 on 11 November 2026, up from $4.28 on 10 November 2026 and from a 52-week closing low of $3.99 on 6 November 2026. The 3-month change is −37.5%, and the close sits 69.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $17.09 set on 19 December 2025. The put and the vote settle the case.
Bullish and bearish views on Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.
The bull case on Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT), in brief: revenue tripled in the third quarter. The bear case: the convertible-note put is the near-term test.
Bull case
- Revenue tripled in the third quarter. Trump Media reported revenue of $2,967.1 thousand for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, against $972.9 thousand a year earlier (Form 10-Q, filed 9 November 2026). The company attributed the growth to Truth API and Truth+ subscriptions plus more Truth Social advertising.
- The merger vote looks well supported. The Washington Post reported on 10 November 2026 that Trump's trust, which owns 41% of the company, has agreed to vote in favour. The meeting is set for 14 December 2026, and the company says it is on track to close in the fourth quarter.
- Reported profit was large. Net income was $409.7 million in the third quarter, against a loss of $54.8 million a year earlier, on $496.1 million of non-cash gains on crypto and stock holdings (company results release, 9 November 2026, as reported by the Washington Post).
- Liquid assets remain sizeable. The 10-Q shows $182,316.9 thousand of cash and equivalents and $211,058.6 thousand of short-term investments at 30 September 2026, plus $31,014.0 thousand of restricted cash.
- The shares have started to rebound. DJT closed at $5.19 on 11 November 2026, 30% above the 6 November 2026 closing low of $3.99.
Bear case
- The convertible-note put is the near-term test. Each holder can require repurchase for cash on 30 November 2026 at 100% of principal plus accrued interest. The Washington Post reported that the company did not know how much might be redeemed. The 10-Q carries the notes at $976,795.1 thousand, and the company has warned that cash and financing might not cover the obligation.
- Without the gains, the business loses money. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) were a loss of $12.3 million in the third quarter. The nine-month operating loss was $102,437.8 thousand and operating activities used $28.4 million of cash (company results; Form 10-Q).
- Cash fell during the quarter. Cash and equivalents were $182,316.9 thousand at 30 September 2026, down from $215,463.0 thousand at 30 June 2026 (Form 10-Q).
- Bitcoin collateral moved. The 10-Q lists bitcoin pledged against the notes at a fair value of $356,059.4 thousand at 30 September 2026. Arkham data reported by IBTimes show about 4,259 bitcoin moved from wallets labelled as note collateral on 5 November 2026. The data do not show whether the coins remain pledged.
- Politics drives the share price. The Washington Post reported that the shares hit a record low after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, with the interim chief executive, Kevin McGurn, saying the fall did not affect the balance sheet. Kevin McGurn has served as interim chief executive since 10 August 2026.
Price setup
DJT closed at $5.19 on 11 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of $7.53 and the 200-day average of $8.93, both as of the same close. The 52-week closing low is $3.99, set on 6 November 2026.
Closes ran $4.49 on 4 November 2026, $4.02 on 5 November 2026, $3.99 on 6 November 2026, $4.06 on 9 November 2026 and $4.28 on 10 November 2026 before the 11 November 2026 jump to $5.19. No company announcement on 11 November 2026 explains the move. The all-stock deal proposes roughly 50/50 fully diluted ownership at closing, so share issuance is part of the structure.
The price already reflects a heavy discount: the shares closed 11 November 2026 at roughly a third of the 52-week intraday high, and the market had not yet seen how many note holders will redeem on 30 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 29 November 2026: End of the second-tranche draw period on the TAE convertible note. Shows whether TAE draws the extra $100 million, which would raise Trump Media's funding commitment while its cash is falling.
- 30 November 2026: Holder put date on the convertible notes (repurchase for cash at 100% of principal plus accrued interest). Shows how much of roughly $1 billion of notes is redeemed and whether cash, investments and pledged bitcoin cover it.
- 14 December 2026: Trump Media special meeting on the TAE merger proposals. Shareholder approval is required for the merger to close by the year-end target; Trump's 41% trust has agreed to vote in favour.
What would change the view
A daily close above $6.02, which would put the shares above their early-November trading range and show them leading the S&P 500. Holders redeeming only a small part of the convertible notes at the 30 November 2026 put would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
DJT has traded with Trump-linked political news more than with its own revenue. Benzinga's 4 November 2026 market summary grouped the "Trump trade" names, including SpaceX, Tesla and defense stocks, as falling together after the midterm results.
Reported profit depends on crypto prices. The $496.1 million of third-quarter gains came mainly from digital assets, including bitcoin and Cronos, so a fall in crypto prices would reverse part of that line (CryptoSlate, 9 November 2026). The convertible-note collateral also ties the company's funding position to the bitcoin price.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $2,967.1 thousand versus $972.9 thousand a year earlier; cash and equivalents $182,316.9 thousand and short-term investments $211,058.6 thousand at 30 September 2026. Trump Media Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- Q3 2026 net income was $409.7 million on $496.1 million of non-cash gains on crypto and stock holdings; adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $12.3 million. Trump Media Q3 2026 results, via Washington Post/ADN 10 November 2026 and CryptoSlate · as of
- Nine-month 2026 operating loss was $102,437.8 thousand; operating activities used $28.4 million of cash. Trump Media Q3 2026 Form 10-Q and results release · as of
- Convertible notes carry a holder put for cash on 30 November 2026 at 100% of principal plus accrued interest; carrying amount $976,795.1 thousand at 30 September 2026. Trump Media Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- Trump's trust, owning 41% of the company, has agreed to vote for the TAE merger; the shareholder vote is 14 December 2026. Washington Post via Anchorage Daily News, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Bitcoin pledged against the notes was 4,260.73 coins with a fair value of $356,059.4 thousand at 30 September 2026. Trump Media Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- About 4,259 bitcoin moved on 5 November 2026 from wallets labelled as note collateral, per Arkham data. IBTimes UK · as of
- The SEC declared the Form S-4 effective and the definitive proxy statement was filed on 5 November 2026; the special meeting is set for 14 December 2026. TAE Technologies press release, 5 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- adn.com ·
- cryptoslate.com
- Trump Media swings to $410 million profit in Q3, driven by crypto gains · theblock.co ·
- Trump Media-Linked Wallets Move 4,259 Bitcoin as $1B Debt Deadline Nears and Democrats Signal Crypto Probes · ibtimes.co.uk
- Trump Media & Technology Group and TAE Technologies Announce Effectiveness of Form S-4 Registration Statement for Proposed Merger · tae.com ·
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