Stocks · Theme
Oil & energy stocks · 58 research notes
58 Oil, energy & geopolitical stocks with a dated research note: thesis, kill line and next catalyst.
Earlier themeNot among the research's active themes (last active 6 November 2026). Each stock's note below is dated on its own.
All 58 have a dated research note with a published kill line: the note's own test, stated in advance, of what would prove it wrong: a price level, a business fact, or both.
All stocksBWLPBW LPGMedium BW LPG Limited's shares are more likely to beat the S&P 500 because about 92% of third-quarter ship days were booked near $88,000 a day against $74,000 realised in the second quarter; the 24 November 2026 report shows whether earnings and…ECOOkeanis Eco TankersMedium Okeanis Eco Tankers is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500, as fourth-quarter bookings of 71% of fleet days at about $420,000 a day exceed its record third quarter. The February 2027 fourth-quarter report shows whether rates…GRNTGranite Ridge ResourcesMedium Granite Ridge Resources has returned production to its guided range and targets about 10% output growth in 2027 on roughly flat spending; its fourth-quarter report and first 2027 guidance, expected around early March 2027, show whether the…AALAmerican Airlines GroupLow American Airlines shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because jet fuel near $4.70 a gallon is consuming record revenue; the fourth-quarter report, expected in late January 2027, shows whether the guided loss of…COPConocoPhillipsLow ConocoPhillips is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because its gains rest on a war-lifted crude price; the OPEC+ meeting on 29 November 2026 tests that premium.CVXChevronLow Chevron's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months as Brent fell to $91.49 on 10 November 2026 and OPEC output neared prewar levels. The fourth-quarter report, around 30 January 2027, shows whether buybacks rise…ETEnergy Transfer LP Common UnitsLow Energy Transfer's units are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because the raised 2026 outlook rests on commodity gains and one-time items while spending climbs. The fourth-quarter report expected in mid-February 2027, with…RIGTransoceanLow Transocean's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: its roughly $8 billion offshore-rig backlog has not lifted earnings, and 2027 revenue is guided flat at $3.85–4.0 billion. The 24 November 2026 Valaris votes and the deal's targeted 1…RRCRange ResourcesLow Range Resources is likely to lag the S&P 500 because its shares now trade as 0.987 EQT shares under EQT's all-stock takeover, with the premium priced in; EQT's share price, gas prices and the shareholder votes before a first-quarter 2027…TENTsakos Energy NavigationLow Tsakos Energy Navigation's shares look more likely to lag than lead the S&P 500 because about 80% of its fleet is on fixed charters that pass only part of record tanker rates into earnings. Its 19 November 2026 third-quarter report shows…VALValarisLow Valaris shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because they trade as Transocean stock at 15.235 shares each, and Transocean's 2 November 2026 results showed lower revenue and a flat 2027 outlook. The 24 November 2026 votes, the 26…XOMExxon MobilLow Exxon Mobil's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 as Brent's war premium unwinds and Goldman Sachs and Bernstein cut targets. The January 2027 fourth-quarter report settles it by showing whether refining profit held near $9.1 billion.HAFNHafniaMedium Hafnia Limited's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months because peers report fourth-quarter product tanker bookings far above Hafnia's $30,716 per day for the third quarter; the 18 November 2026 report shows…HPHelmerich & PayneMedium Helmerich & Payne is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months, resting on its 7 October 2026 guide to high-end fiscal fourth-quarter margins; the 19 November 2026 results call settles it through adjusted profit…MURMurphy OilMedium Murphy Oil is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter output of 186,495 boe/d beat guidance, but Brent's drop to $92.57 on 9 November 2026 makes crude prices and fourth-quarter delivery the test.PARRPar Pacific HoldingsMedium Par Pacific's refining earnings beat in Q3 2026 (adjusted EPS $10.70 vs $6.65 consensus) and the October refining index of $41.34 per barrel is above July's $31.34, yet the shares fell to $68.61; Q4 capture and Laramie cash settle it.TKTeekayMedium Teekay Corporation's tanker subsidiary forecast record fourth-quarter 2026 results on 11 November 2026, giving the shares, 16.2% below their October high, a modest edge over the S&P 500; Teekay Tankers' fourth-quarter report in February…TNKTeekay TankersMedium Teekay Tankers' third-quarter 2026 beat and its forecast of record fourth-quarter results make the shares modestly likely to beat the S&P 500. Spot tanker rates through the Hormuz disruption and US sanctions policy will settle it.VGVenture GlobalMedium Venture Global's shares have a modest edge over the S&P 500 after the company raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide to $10.0–10.3 billion on 10 November 2026. Year-end long-term contracts, the first AI power order and CP2's July 2027 start…ACDCProFrac HoldingLow ProFrac Holding's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter Stimulation Services margin stayed at 9%, flat on the second quarter, and the shares closed at $3.19 on 12 November 2026. The fourth-quarter…AESIAtlas Energy SolutionsLow Atlas Energy Solutions, a Permian sand producer turning into a power developer, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: it closed at $5.50 on 12 November 2026 with its data center power contracts unsigned. Management's…BTEBaytex EnergyLow Baytex Energy's crude-and-buyback story gave way to a growth plan on 5 November 2026, and the shares closed at $4.17 on 10 November 2026; delivery of 76,000-79,000 boe/d in 2027 within a C$775-850 million budget settles the case.CLMTCalumetLow Calumet's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: a record third quarter has not stopped the selling, and the case waits on Montana Renewables restarting in late November and reaching an 80 million gallon SAF run-rate by year-end 2026.CMBTCMB.TECH NVLow CMB.TECH's record crude-tanker earnings look largely priced in after a crowded 2026 tanker rally, and the shares sit near their 200-day average; the 26 November 2026 third-quarter report shows whether disposal gains and spot rates can…CVICVR EnergyLow CVR Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the $4.2 billion Marathon refinery purchase rests on outside funding and refining margins have faded. Closing of the deal, expected by the end of 2026, settles it.DHTDHT HoldingsLow DHT Holdings shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 despite record fourth-quarter tanker bookings, because investors are pricing a 2027 rate decline. DHT's first-quarter 2027 bookings, due in its January update and February report,…DINOHF SinclairLow HF Sinclair's record $54.22-a-barrel third-quarter refining margin has the shares, which closed at $98.76 on 10 November 2026 as post-election policy risk and easing diesel cracks hit refiners. Fourth-quarter diesel margins and fuel-rule…DKDelek US HoldingsLow Delek US Holdings is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its record third-quarter earnings of 6 November 2026 rest on peak refining margins, and fourth-quarter margins and weekly distillate stocks decide whether they hold.EFXTEnerflexLow Enerflex's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: TD Cowen expects new US engine orders to pause over Texas permitting. The mid-December Texas grid audit and fourth-quarter bookings settle whether its record $2.136…EQNREquinor ASALow Equinor's earnings follow European gas and oil prices, which fell in early November on Iran peace-talk hopes, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; the Visund restart and the fourth-quarter report due around 4…FETForum Energy TechnologiesLow Forum Energy Technologies beat third-quarter profit estimates, but flat fourth-quarter guidance and drilling orders below revenue leave the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter report, estimated for late February 2027,…FROFrontlineLow Frontline's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months because crude-tanker spot rates roughly halved in the week to 12 November 2026. The third-quarter report on 20 November 2026 shows how much of October's rate…FTKFlotek IndustriesLow Flotek Industries' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: international chemistry drove a third 2026 guidance raise, but Data Analytics revenue slipped to $18.1 million and the Q4 report falls after that…GPRKGeoparkLow GeoPark's Venezuela Bare contract is in force, but third-quarter margins and cash flow fell and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500. Crude differentials in Colombia and the Gilinski tender at $12.22 settle the case.HPKHighPeak EnergyLow HighPeak Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: a third-quarter beat came with a $55.7 million net loss on hedges, and free cash flow fell short of the quarter's debt payment. The refinancing closing, which the company expects…INSWInternational SeawaysLow International Seaways' record third-quarter profit has up its share price as tanker spot rates ease from their peak, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; spot rates and the 23 December 2026 dividend settle it.JBLUJetBlue AirwaysLow JetBlue Airways is more likely to lag the S&P 500: lenders holding about 55% of its 2031 bonds and first-lien loan signed a cooperation pact on 11 November 2026, and $8.4 billion of debt meets $4.64-a-gallon fuel; financing news or…KOSKosmos EnergyLow Kosmos Energy is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the 2 November 2026 report missed estimates and fourth-quarter output is guided down to 60,000–64,000 boepd. Fourth-quarter results and year-end net debt below $2.4 billion…LPGDorian LpgLow Dorian LPG shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because its record gas-carrier rates rest on a largely shut Strait of Hormuz that US-Iran talks could reopen. The December-quarter forward booking release, expected…MPCMarathon PetroleumLow Marathon Petroleum's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because a record $45.70-a-barrel third-quarter refining margin did not stop a post-report slide; the fourth-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, shows whether…NATNordic American TankerLow Nordic American Tankers' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because Atlantic suezmax spot rates fell 29–52% in the week to 6 November 2026. The 30 November 2026 third-quarter report and dividend show whether fourth-quarter bookings…NESRNational Energy Services ReunitedLow National Energy Services Reunited, a Middle East and North Africa oilfield-services provider, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter revenue fell 3.1% and cash flow turned negative. The fourth-quarter report,…NOGNorthern Oil and GasLow Northern Oil and Gas is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: record third-quarter results and higher production guidance did not hold the shares, which follow crude and U.S.-Iran headlines. Fourth-quarter results, expected…OIIOceaneering InternationalLow Oceaneering International's shares fell to a $35.06 close on 10 November 2026 as fourth-quarter EBITDA guidance of $85–95 million outweighs a $430–480 million 2027 outlook; the report due around February 2027 is the first test.PBFPBF EnergyLow PBF Energy's record third-quarter earnings look priced in, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; weekly distillate inventory reports from 18 November 2026 and Russian diesel arrivals show whether margins hold.PBRPetroleo Brasileiro S.A.-PetrobrasLow Petrobras shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 after a third-quarter dividend below bank forecasts and higher 2026 capital-spending guidance. The 2027–2031 strategic plan, due on 23 November 2026, shows whether payouts recover.PDSPrecision DrillingLow Precision Drilling's rig recovery is real but largely reflected in its shares, which face no company report before about 11 February 2027, so they are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; that fourth-quarter report settles…PNRGPrimeEnergy ResourcesLow PrimeEnergy Resources looks more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it: crude fell to $86.85 on 9 November 2026 and the earnings repair needs gas revenue to turn positive. The third-quarter report, estimated for 16 November 2026, settles…PSXPhillips 66Low Phillips 66 still looks more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the shares carry a war premium that crude's November slide is eroding. Whether the diesel crack spread holds above its $64 one-year average settles it.PTENPatterson-UTI EnergyLow Patterson-UTI Energy's drilling recovery is real, but its shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: they closed at $10.67 on 12 November 2026, 20.3% below the September high, and Citigroup cut its target to $11. The…SMSM EnergyLow SM Energy's Civitas merger is cutting debt, but a lowered 2026 oil outlook and flat 2027 volumes leave the shares tied to crude and more likely to lag the S&P 500; fourth-quarter results and 2027 guidance, expected in February 2027, settle…SSLSasolLow Sasol Limited's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the ADR is 21.2% below its October high and the fiscal 2026 recovery is priced in; interim results due around 23 February 2027 test net debt against US$3 billion.TRMDTORMLow TORM plc's shares are more likely to trail the S&P 500 over three months: they closed at $35.36 on 11 November 2026, below the $39.60 net asset value, despite a strong third quarter. LR2 freight rates and Gulf product flows settle it.UGPUltrapar ParticipacoesLow Ultrapar's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: its 11 November 2026 third-quarter report showed recurring EBITDA down 15% from the second quarter and net debt up to R$11.0 billion. The fourth-quarter Ipiranga fuel margin decides…VETVermilion EnergyLow Vermilion Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter free cash flow fell to C$90.5 million from C$122 million, and spending rises in 2027. The fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected around 3 March…VLOValero EnergyLow Valero Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months as refining margins fade from a record third quarter, a case a 4.1 million-barrel U.S. diesel stock build reported on 12 November 2026 supports. The…WTIW&T OffshoreLow W&T Offshore is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: fourth-quarter output is guided to 32.0–35.3 MBoe/d from 38.2 in the third quarter, and crude is falling; hurricane season's end on 30 November 2026 and crude decide it.WTTRSelect Water SolutionsLow Select Water Solutions' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: the Pilot Water deal adds $900 million of 7.625% debt and higher spending before its earnings show up. The fourth-quarter report, the first with Pilot, settles it.