Filtered library · Theme
Oil, energy & geopolitical theme · 44 dossiers
Dossiers in the Oil, energy & geopolitical theme cluster — 44 names moving on shared catalysts.
Theme runProduced by the theme run on 20 September 2026, maturing.
All 44 are dated research with a published kill line — the level named in advance that would prove the call wrong.
All dossiers BWLP BW LPG Limited fresh MEDIUM BW LPG Limited’s contracted freight earnings support dividend continuation; its 2026-11-24 report must show Q3 realised shipping TCE above Q2’s $74,000 per day and a dividend of at least $0.95 per share. A weekly close below $22.00… CMBT CMB.TECH NV fresh MEDIUM CMB.TECH's vessel-disposal and cash-return story supports further upside if the proposed October distribution is delivered. The case requires payment of $0.64 per share and a weekly close above $20.41 by 2026-10-31, before a weekly close… CVI CVR ENERGY, INC. MEDIUM CVR Energy’s refining thesis is that Hormuz disruption lifts reported margins above second-quarter 2026’s $9.94 per throughput barrel. Third-quarter results test that inference; a weekly close below $39 invalidates the price structure. DINO HF Sinclair Corporation MEDIUM HF Sinclair’s refining-margin and separation story now has fresh UBS support. The case requires the next quarterly report to sustain second-quarter adjusted refinery gross margin of $25.95 per produced barrel sold on comparable throughput,… DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM Delek US's refining recovery supports the August breakout, but September's distillate build weakens the scarcity leg. Q3 throughput and expense delivery must confirm the earnings case before a weekly close below $64 invalidates the… FTK Flotek Industries, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Legacy oilfield chemistry re-rating into a power/measurement business: Data Analytics hit 51% of gross profit in Q2 2026, the 2026-08-03 PREPA award adds ~$400M of 10-year expected backlog, and the 2026-08-04 guide went to $340–350M from… HP Helmerich & Payne, Inc. MEDIUM Helmerich & Payne’s crude-led drilling recovery needs fourth-quarter rig activity and margins to meet guidance and adjusted earnings to turn positive. Those results would confirm the operating case; a weekly close below $40 invalidates the… PBF PBF ENERGY INC. MEDIUM PBF Energy’s new high prices in sustained refining profits; Q3 adjusted earnings of at least $6.22 per share would confirm the case unless a weekly close below $75.48 first breaks the breakout. PSX Phillips 66 MEDIUM Phillips 66’s repricing depends on exceptional refining margins persisting into Q3 2026. The case plays out if Q3 realized refining margin reaches at least Q2’s $24.08 per barrel before a weekly close below $239 invalidates it. SSL Sasol Limited MEDIUM Sasol Limited’s operating recovery supports price continuation after its 2026-09-01 results. A weekly close above the $14.65 annual high recorded on 2026-09-11 completes the case; a weekly close below that day’s $14.59 reference close… UGP Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. MEDIUM Ultrapar’s Ipiranga earnings and reported stake-sale talks underpin a further re-rating. A weekly close at or above UBS’s 2026-09-04 target of $7.90 would confirm the price case; a weekly close below $5.80 or confirmed termination of the… VLO Valero Energy Corporation MEDIUM Refiner crack spreads at a record ~$70/bbl 3-2-1 as a Hormuz/Iran supply shock idles ~10% of global refining; VLO is the pure-play margin leverage and the fundamental leg is accelerating. But sell-side (6 PT raises in 11 days) and CNBC… AESI Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. fresh LOW Frac-sand legacy pivoting to behind-the-meter gas power for AI data centers, but the story is DORMANT and the structure broken: shares fell from $16.73 (6/29) to an $11.96 close (7/24, -8.5%), losing the ~$15 base and $13 shelf on… AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. LOW Alpha Metallurgical Resources’ coal-supply-shock thesis requires stronger third-quarter realized pricing before August support breaks. Realization above the second quarter’s $118.71 per short ton would confirm transmission; a weekly close… GPRK Geopark Limited LOW GeoPark's Venezuela redevelopment deal creates a revaluation case. A weekly close above the $11.97 reference high would confirm the price thesis before a weekly close below the September 11 reference close of $11.48 invalidates it. MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation LOW Record refining cracks are already in the tape: Q2 R&M margin $36.33/bbl vs $17.58 YoY and a 29% EPS beat on 2026-08-04, yet the stock closed 2026-08-07 at $298.20 — RSI 37.3, 6.7% under the $319.76 high — while six desks raised targets… PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. LOW Rig-reactivation cyclical is basing, not broken: June averaged 95 US rigs (vs ~90 Q2 guide), the July EIA STEO lifted 2026 Henry Hub to $3.67, gas rigs turned up 122→126, and Piper upgraded to Overweight 07-14. Price bottomed $8.57 (07-01)… WTI W&T Offshore, Inc. fresh LOW W&T Offshore’s oil-to-cash recovery case has weakened as the 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $3.84 slipped below the dated $4.01 recovery hurdle. The thesis resolves with a daily close at or above the market’s $4.89 trailing-year high before… BTU Peabody Energy Corporation MEDIUM Peabody Energy’s Centurion recovery depends on higher production becoming shipments and positive metallurgical earnings. Third-quarter sales meeting management’s 0.5–0.7 million-ton range and positive segment adjusted EBITDA would… HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc. MEDIUM HighPeak Energy’s second-half spending reduction supports a debt-reduction thesis that third-quarter accounts must confirm. The case resolves with lower capital spending and total debt below June’s approximately $1.19 billion before a… IMAX Imax Corp MEDIUM IMAX Corporation's record summer supports renewed premium-format repricing; a weekly close above $54.79 would confirm the case. A weekly close below $47 would invalidate it, while the next quarterly results test whether summer demand… NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. MEDIUM Northern Oil and Gas’s crude-driven recovery faces a cash-flow test as hedges limit oil-price upside. A weekly close above the $29.64 annual high completes the price case, while a weekly close below $23.00 invalidates it; third-quarter… PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Par Pacific's distillate-margin story now depends on Q3 operating confirmation as inventories rebuild from scarce levels. A weekly close above $86.49 would confirm price continuation; a weekly close below $76 would invalidate it. PNRG PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation fresh MEDIUM Geopolitical crude bid re-fired after the 2026-07-08 US strikes and Hormuz blockade — WTI back to ~$80 from $68.86, PNRG +8.9% MTD to $186.51 and above the 200-day. Structurally better than June: GCX in-service flipped Waha gas positive,… SM SM Energy Company MEDIUM SM Energy’s merger-integration story supports a further rerating. The price case is a weekly close above Wells Fargo’s $47 target of 2026-08-13 before a weekly close below Seaport’s $35 target of 2026-09-03; neither analyst valuation is… ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Fuel-relief leg replaced by an earnings-delivery leg: the 2026-07-29 Q2 print put adjusted EPS at $(0.10) against a $(0.60)–$(0.45) May guide on record $1,279M revenue, and guided 2H to breakeven-or-better. The catch is that guide assumes… USO United States Oil Fund, LP MEDIUM The driver rotated: Rubio's 2026-08-25 shift from strikes to sanctions drained the escalation bid, but EIA's 0.095M bbl crude build vs 1.600M expected (08-26) and oil rigs -5 to 447 vs 454 est (08-28) carried USO to $129.70. The narrative… VET Vermilion Energy Inc. MEDIUM Vermilion Energy’s European gas revaluation needs Q3 cash flow to confirm the September price recovery. The case plays out if Q3 free cash flow exceeds C$122 million and production meets 116,000–118,000 boe/d before a weekly close below… VG Venture Global, Inc. MEDIUM LNG-export narrative re-accelerating on Europe's winter gas scramble plus a Middle East risk premium; VG ran +23% off the $12 mid-July shelf to $14.31 as Plaquemines ramps and CP2 advances. The 2026-08-11 pre-market Q2 print is the binary… WTTR Select Water Solutions, Inc. MEDIUM Select Water Solutions’ contracted water-infrastructure transition supports a recovery toward its September 11 reference high of $22.18. A weekly close above that level confirms the price case; a weekly close below $18 invalidates it,… ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp. fresh LOW ProFrac's frac-pricing recovery has September financing relief, but operating confirmation is missing. The case requires Q3 stimulation margin above the 9% reported on 2026-08-06 and a weekly close above the August reference of $5.37… ARHS Arhaus, Inc. LOW Arhaus's order-recovery thesis requires Q3 2026 delivered-sales growth above Q2's 4.0% and a weekly close above the lost $9.00 market shelf. A weekly close below $8.00 invalidates the case. BTE Baytex Energy Corp. fresh LOW July's Hormuz flare re-armed the oil-geopolitical premium, but it has since drained — WTI slipped to the low $70s and the 2026-07-17 sanctions wind-down passed with no barrel shortage, a contained-conflict bid rather than a supply shock.… DJT Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. LOW Fusion pivot is the leg: the 2025-12-18 all-stock TAE Technologies merger (>$6B, ~50/50 fully diluted) is what's actually being bought, while the crypto-treasury leg was terminated 2026-08-07. The S-4 was still unfiled as of 2026-08-05,… EQNR Equinor ASA fresh LOW European winter gas-security theme re-accelerating; Equinor, the swing Norwegian pipeline supplier, held ~$40 through a Q2 double-miss on a $1.125B buyback bid. JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation fresh LOW Fuel-reversion bull leg broke: Brent re-spiked to ~$86 (Jul 17) on renewed Mideast conflict, reversing the sub-$73 tailwind the whole trade needed. Raymond James (Jul 6) cut to Underperform flagging a Chapter 11 that wipes equity; $9.3B… KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. fresh LOW Jubilee ramping toward ~90,000 bopd gross (J76 online, J77/J50 imminent) with GTA LNG volumes climbing. Highest-beta E&P expression bounced ~15% off the $2.00 June low; re-accelerating but still a ~$2.30, 'CCC'-rated, most-levered… LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. LOW Life Time Group Holdings’ premium-club re-rating needs recovery above the August placement price and retention of July’s raised growth outlook. A weekly close above $43.16 and unchanged guidance at the next results would satisfy the case;… NBR Nabors Industries Ltd. fresh LOW Leveraged ~2x oil-beta proxy on the Hormuz war premium, +90% YTD near $100 but now rolling over: Susquehanna cut its target to $85 (2026-07-08) as the sell-side stops chasing, and the ~2026-07-23 Q2 print — the first to lap the premium —… NESR National Energy Services Reunited Corp fresh LOW National Energy Services Reunited's oilfield expansion supports a recovery case: a weekly close above $36.31 before one below $32 would settle the price leg. The next quarterly release tests whether second-quarter revenue of $520.8 million… OII Oceaneering International Inc. fresh LOW Oceaneering International’s offshore earnings recovery needs third-quarter confirmation and a weekly close above $54.11 to validate renewed re-rating. A weekly close below $46 would invalidate the case; the September 8 sales range alone… PBR PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE) LOW Petrobras’s oil-linked momentum thesis requires a daily close above the September 11 reference high of $21.38 before a daily close below $21.20. Reported production growth supports the operating story, but expanding market participation… VIOT Viomi Technology Co., Ltd fresh LOW Viomi Technology’s recovery now depends on appliance sales and profit after Nasdaq compliance was restored on 2026-09-18. The case requires second-half revenue above RMB740.0 million and positive net income before a weekly close below… WHD Cactus, Inc. fresh LOW International wellhead order narrative from the 2026-07-29 Q2 beat is intact, but the re-rating leg is largely spent: Citigroup cut to Neutral on 2026-08-20 while raising its target to $75, and the shares closed $69.43 on 2026-08-21, 5.8%…